Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260520

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260520_ATL@MIA 20260520_BAL@TB 20260520_BOS@KC 20260520_CHW@SEA 20260520_CIN@PHI 20260520_CLE@DET 20260520_HOU@MIN 20260520_LAD@SD 20260520_MIL@CHC 20260520_NYM@WAS 20260520_OAK@LAA 20260520_PIT@STL 20260520_SF@ARI 20260520_TEX@COL 20260520_TOR@NYY

20260520_ATL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ATL 3 - 4 MIA	MIA	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ATL 4 - 5 MIA	MIA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ATL	7-3	0.700	4.40	3.10	13	1W	average	strong
Home MIA	5-5	0.500	5.40	5.20	2	1L	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ATL	33-16	0.673	90	1.837	True
Home MIA	22-27	0.449	-5	-0.102	True
Signal	-	-	-1.939	-2.276	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	ATL @ MIA	8 - 4	ATL	4	blowout
2026-05-18	ATL @ MIA	0 - 12	MIA	12	blowout
2026-04-15	MIA @ ATL	3 - 6	ATL	3	blowout
2026-04-14	MIA @ ATL	5 - 6	ATL	1	close
2026-04-13	MIA @ ATL	10 - 4	MIA	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ATL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target MIA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ATL	34	9	6	0	5	2	9
Player finalized MIA	32	9	2	0	2	0	8
Player model fractional ATL	32.41	7.83	4.61	1.13	4.35	2.70	7.14
Player model fractional MIA	32.05	6.85	3.36	0.77	3.59	2.54	6.98
Simulation box ATL	35	8	4	1	4	4	6
Simulation box MIA	33	7	5	2	5	4	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ATL	Starter	Chris Sale	6.20	1	7	2	2	2.43	1.02	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1	0	1	1	0	2.68	1.14	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	0.10	0	0	0	0	2.39	1.10	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	0	4	0	4	2	2.45	0.99	True
Home MIA	Starter	Janson Junk	5.20	3	3	6	1	4.06	1.24	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.76	1.30	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1	0	2	1	2	4.20	1.47	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	1	1	1	1	1	5.69	1.41	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ATL

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2713

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.837	2.000	0.163	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.021	0.250
predicted_BB	0.327	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.327	2.000	-0.327	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.041	0.000	-0.041	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.400	-0.079	-0.150
predicted_R	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.633	0.000	0.367	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	1.000	0.469	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.441	0.000	-0.191	0.250
predicted_SO	0.531	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.837	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.327	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.633	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.531	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.808	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.001
predicted_H	0.781	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.000
predicted_R	0.561	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.808	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.003
predicted_BB	0.335	0.007
predicted_H	0.814	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.007
predicted_R	0.604	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.013
predicted_SO	0.517	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.837

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2273	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1081	0.1905	0.1081	0.1081	0.0000	0.0811	0.0811	0.1081
season	0.60	49	-	188.000	51.000	8.000	8.000	26.000	31.000	16.000	26.000	0.2713	0.3286	0.4415	0.2713	0.0425	0.1383	0.0851	0.1383

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7670
predicted_AVG	0.2113
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2838
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.3197
predicted_SO	0.5240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1070	0.1398	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8370	3.7670	3.8081	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2113	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3270	0.3300	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7960	0.7807	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0990	0.0996	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6330	0.4600	0.5615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4220	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3197	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5310	0.5240	0.5281	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

System season_avg: 0.3580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3580

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	0.870	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.522	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.522	3.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.358	0.000	0.309	0.667
predicted_BB	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.130	0.000	0.870	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.261	0.000	0.739	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.000	0.366	0.750
predicted_R	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_SO	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.478	2.000	0.522	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.522	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.130	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.478	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.563	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	0.016
predicted_H	1.097	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.495	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.526	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.563	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.150	0.003
predicted_H	1.143	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.108	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.017
predicted_R	0.576	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.515	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.4444	0.3889	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3243	0.3590	0.3514	0.3243	0.0000	0.0541	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.60	23	-	81.000	29.000	3.000	4.000	18.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	0.3580	0.3837	0.5432	0.3580	0.0494	0.2222	0.0370	0.1358

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.3282
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3653
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.5360
predicted_SLG	0.4621
predicted_SO	0.6070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1490	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5220	3.6320	3.5632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1300	0.1740	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1920	1.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1100	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3653	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.4850	0.5351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5360	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4621	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4780	0.6070	0.5263	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.358

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ronald Acuña Jr. (660670) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	4.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.629	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.629	2.000	1.371	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.033	-0.100
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	3.000	-0.571	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.500	-0.382	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.914	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	1.000	-0.914	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.629	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.272	0.015
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.734	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.631	0.002
predicted_H	0.967	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.619	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.272	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.734	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.007
predicted_BB	0.644	0.014
predicted_H	1.008	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.004
predicted_R	0.666	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.004
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	0.2973	0.4222	0.4865	0.2973	0.0270	0.0811	0.2162	0.2973
season	0.60	35	-	131.000	33.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	20.000	22.000	32.000	0.2519	0.3671	0.3817	0.2519	0.0153	0.0687	0.1679	0.2443

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.2627
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3736
predicted_R	0.6900
predicted_RBI	0.2540
predicted_SLG	0.4029
predicted_SO	0.9860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2940	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0160	0.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.7210	3.7341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2627	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6290	0.6330	0.6306	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9770	0.9669	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3736	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.6900	0.6190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2540	0.2516	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4029	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	0.9860	0.9430	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	660670
playerID	660670
playerName	Ronald Acuña Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sandy León (506702) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	3.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.725	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.044	0.044
predicted_H	0.533	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.078	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.725	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.045	0.001
predicted_H	0.556	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.217	-0.062
predicted_R	0.084	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.065
predicted_SO	0.755	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	10.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	4	-	10.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000
season	0.60	4	-	10.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4750
predicted_AVG	0.2332
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.3472
predicted_SO	0.8450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1250	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4750	2.7249	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2332	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1930	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.8110	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0840	0.0578	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3390	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.3260	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3472	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8450	0.7719	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	506702
playerID	506702
playerName	Sandy León
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2834

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.327	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.327	1.000	-0.327	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	3.000	1.184	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.667	-0.283	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.510	2.000	-0.510	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.082	2.000	-1.082	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.800	-0.364	-0.800
predicted_R	0.735	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.735	0.000	-0.735	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.837	3.000	-0.837	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.594	1.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.041	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.041	0.000	1.959	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.327	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.510	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	1.041	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.777	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.491	-0.019
predicted_H	0.935	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.619	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.775	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	1.025	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.777	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.005
predicted_BB	0.502	0.011
predicted_H	0.974	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.010
predicted_R	0.665	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.833	0.059
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.021
predicted_SO	1.003	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.3514	0.2432	0.0270	0.2162	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.60	49	-	187.000	53.000	16.000	14.000	41.000	36.000	25.000	51.000	0.2834	0.3645	0.5936	0.2834	0.0749	0.2193	0.1337	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.2528
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3346
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.7810
predicted_SLG	0.4640
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3270	0.2450	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.7210	3.7767	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2528	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5100	0.4640	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9410	0.9346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1790	0.1796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3346	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.4540	0.6187	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7810	0.7746	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4640	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0410	1.0020	1.0249	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2202

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.406	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	2.000	0.594	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.333	-0.042	-0.083
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.062	0.250
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.361	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	0.022
predicted_H	0.738	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.361	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.341	0.007
predicted_H	0.769	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.029
predicted_R	0.496	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.456	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.835	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3077	0.4375	0.7692	0.3077	0.1538	0.3077	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5333	0.3000	0.0667	0.1667	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.60	32	-	109.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	14.000	10.000	28.000	0.2202	0.2917	0.3119	0.2202	0.0184	0.0917	0.0917	0.2569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2910
predicted_AVG	0.2518
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3293
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.4374
predicted_SO	0.8210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1070	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.2910	3.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2518	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3680	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8290	0.7383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1660	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3293	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4980	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4770	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4374	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8210	0.8539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2131

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.200	-0.032	0.050
predicted_R	0.521	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.521	1.000	-0.521	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	3.000	-1.146	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.521	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.824	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.035
predicted_H	0.720	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.149	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.506	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	1.144	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.263	0.006
predicted_H	0.750	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.117	0.000
predicted_HR	0.155	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.019
predicted_R	0.571	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.119	-0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.3947	0.2105	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.2895
season	0.60	48	-	183.000	39.000	8.000	7.000	28.000	25.000	14.000	55.000	0.2131	0.2822	0.3716	0.2131	0.0382	0.1530	0.0765	0.3005

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2057
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.2668
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.3751
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1630	0.1654	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.8410	3.8240	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2057	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.2080	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7900	0.7195	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1610	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5210	0.5450	0.5309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5580	0.5063	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3751	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.1420	1.1444	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	1.000	0.761	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.739	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.739	5.000	0.261	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.600	-0.006	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	3.000	0.043	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.600	-0.062	-0.350
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	1.000	0.565	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.800	0.105	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.674	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.674	0.000	-0.674	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.739	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.674	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.787	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.007
predicted_H	0.831	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.000
predicted_R	0.414	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.681	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.787	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.260	0.006
predicted_H	0.866	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.011
predicted_R	0.445	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.666	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2195	0.2558	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.1463	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.60	46	-	172.000	44.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	26.000	20.000	12.000	31.000	0.2558	0.3118	0.3953	0.2558	0.0174	0.1512	0.0698	0.1802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.2383
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2886
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.3612
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.2190	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0250	0.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7390	3.8550	3.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2383	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.2440	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9190	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2886	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.3830	0.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4980	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3612	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6740	0.6920	0.6814	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2810

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.825	5.000	1.175
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.400	0.119
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	2.000	0.925
predicted_HR	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	0.800
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.400	0.094
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	0.550
predicted_RBI	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	2.000	1.450
predicted_SLG	0.442	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	1.000	0.536
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.827	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	0.009
predicted_H	0.910	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.215	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.006
predicted_BB	0.162	0.004
predicted_H	0.949	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.224	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.004
predicted_R	0.502	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.554	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.008
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.4737	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2250	0.3846	0.2051	0.0513	0.1026	0.0256	0.2821
season	0.60	40	-	153.000	43.000	4.000	8.000	22.000	18.000	6.000	32.000	0.2810	0.3063	0.4641	0.2811	0.0523	0.1438	0.0392	0.2092

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8300
predicted_AVG	0.2417
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2220
predicted_OBP	0.2746
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.4416
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0960	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.8300	3.8270	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2417	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1710	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9260	0.9105	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2220	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2746	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4910	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5220	0.5148	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4416	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8580	0.8234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Chris Sale (519242) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	2.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.000	5.000	-2.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.200	6.200	6.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.111	6.000	0.089	0.200
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	7.111	8.000	-0.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	4.000	19.000	8.000	42.000	2.000	1.0909	0.8182	0.1212	0.5758	0.2424	1.2727	0.0606
last_10	0.35	9	55.000	12.000	36.000	14.000	64.000	6.000	1.9636	0.9091	0.2182	0.6545	0.2545	1.1636	0.1091
season	0.20	9	55.000	12.000	36.000	14.000	64.000	6.000	1.9636	0.9091	0.2182	0.6545	0.2545	1.1636	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9110
predicted_ER	1.7560
predicted_ERA	2.4301
predicted_H	4.7150
predicted_HR	0.6340
predicted_IP	6.2000
predicted_SO	7.3580
predicted_WHIP	1.0189

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9110	1.9556	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7560	1.3773	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4301	2.4301	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.7150	3.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6340	0.8173	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.2000	6.2000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	7.3580	7.1787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0189	1.0189	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	7
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	107

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	519242
playerID	519242
playerName	Chris Sale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.571	1.000	0.429
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.014	1.000	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.286	1.000	-0.286

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.9375	0.6562	0.2812	1.5000
season	0.20	14	14.200	8.000	3.000	18.000	0.7500	0.5454	0.2046	1.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.2980
predicted_ERA	2.6795
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0510
predicted_WHIP	1.1412

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3560	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2980	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6795	2.6795	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7850	0.9177	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0314	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0510	1.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1412	1.1412	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.970	1.000	-0.870	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	0.7059	0.0000	0.1765	0.5294	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.5625	0.3750	0.7500
season	0.20	20	20.100	1.000	13.000	5.000	19.000	0.4426	0.8852	0.0492	0.6393	0.2459	0.9344

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.1670
predicted_ERA	2.3855
predicted_H	0.4420
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5710
predicted_WHIP	1.0967

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1670	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3855	2.3855	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4420	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0191	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5710	0.2376	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0967	1.0967	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.44
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.087	0.000	1.913	2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.087	0.000	3.913	4.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.435	2.000	3.565	2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.904	1.100	-0.904	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.217	2.000	-1.217	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	0.000	17.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.4688	0.0000	1.5938
season	0.20	23	22.200	2.000	10.000	2.000	28.000	0.7941	0.5294	0.0882	0.4412	0.0882	1.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	2.4466
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7110
predicted_WHIP	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1350	1.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.1760	2.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4466	2.4466	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.5090	2.5074	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0450	0.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7110	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9920	0.9920	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.79
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: MIA

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1591

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.250	0.174	0.083
predicted_BB	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.213	0.250	0.287	0.250
predicted_R	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.205	0.500	0.129	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.231	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.231	3.000	-1.231	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	1.231	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.440	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.161	0.007
predicted_H	0.569	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.000
predicted_R	0.187	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.185	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.003
predicted_H	0.538	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.036
predicted_R	0.169	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.168	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.241	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.207	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.2353	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	0.1176	0.1429	0.1765	0.1177	0.0294	0.0294	0.3824
season	0.60	13	-	44.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	0.1591	0.2128	0.2045	0.1591	0.0227	0.0454	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5500
predicted_AVG	0.1822
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2287
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.2150
predicted_SLG	0.2796
predicted_SO	1.1020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2020	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.5500	3.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1822	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1740	0.1607	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6470	0.5693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2287	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.2520	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2150	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2796	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2310	1.1020	1.1877	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2584

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	4.000	0.440	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	-0.008	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	1.000	-0.040	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	4.000	-0.600	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.360	1.000	-0.110	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.480	1.000	-0.480	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.480	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.615	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	-0.011
predicted_H	0.682	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.249	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.623	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.505	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.042
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.004
predicted_H	0.644	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.226	-0.037
predicted_R	0.225	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.565	-0.059
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.057
predicted_SO	0.513	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.4000	0.1500	0.0500	0.4000	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.1351	0.1795	0.2973	0.1351	0.0270	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	25	-	89.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	15.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.2584	0.3053	0.3596	0.2584	0.0112	0.1685	0.0674	0.1348

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2580
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7060
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.7430
predicted_SLG	0.3651
predicted_SO	0.5470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2580	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.7060	3.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2100	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8150	0.6817	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0910	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3280	0.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.7430	0.6233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3651	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4800	0.5470	0.5054	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-SS
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.500	-0.050	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	2.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.600	-0.112	-0.350
predicted_R	0.553	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.553	0.000	0.447	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.105	2.000	-1.105	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.521	0.750	-0.271	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.342	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.728	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.002
predicted_H	0.880	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.510	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.815	0.085
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.395	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.728	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.044
predicted_BB	0.313	-0.005
predicted_H	0.831	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.124	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.057
predicted_R	0.462	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.738	-0.077
predicted_SLG	0.357	-0.071
predicted_SO	0.401	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2051	0.2955	0.3077	0.2051	0.0256	0.2564	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.60	38	-	140.000	42.000	4.000	9.000	42.000	21.000	12.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3625	0.5214	0.3000	0.0643	0.3000	0.0857	0.0929

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7920
predicted_AVG	0.2668
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3397
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.9410
predicted_SLG	0.4284
predicted_SO	0.4730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1320	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.7920	3.7276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2668	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3220	0.3184	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0120	0.8796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1590	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3397	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.4460	0.5098	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.9410	0.8152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4284	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3420	0.4730	0.3949	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Esteury Ruiz (665923) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.125	2.000	0.875	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.340	0.500
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.185	0.250	0.315	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	3.500	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.000	1.560	2.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.219	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.155	0.030
predicted_H	0.525	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.153	-0.003
predicted_H	0.496	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.141	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.192	-0.036
predicted_R	0.445	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.416	-0.043
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.095	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.0667	0.1176	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	8	-	25.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.1600	0.1852	0.4400	0.1600	0.0800	0.1600	0.0400	0.3600
season	0.60	8	-	25.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.1600	0.1852	0.4400	0.1600	0.0800	0.1600	0.0400	0.3600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4430
predicted_AVG	0.1767
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2284
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.3657
predicted_SO	0.9660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1110	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1250	3.4430	3.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1767	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.2270	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6090	0.5252	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1750	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2284	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4700	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5280	0.4590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3657	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9660	1.0779	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	665923
playerID	665923
playerName	Esteury Ruiz
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3149

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	5.000	0.229	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.200	0.185	0.300
predicted_BB	0.521	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.521	0.000	0.479	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	1.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.200	0.202	0.400
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.396	1.000	0.604	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.800	0.008	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.479	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.479	1.000	0.521	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.521	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	0.479	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.058	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.849	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.048
predicted_H	1.175	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.777	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.484	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.519	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.523	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.058	0.000
predicted_AB	3.849	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.008
predicted_H	1.110	-0.065
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.009
predicted_R	0.704	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.439	-0.046
predicted_SLG	0.495	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.532	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.3636	0.3913	0.6364	0.3636	0.0909	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5714	0.2857	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.1667
season	0.60	48	-	181.000	57.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	19.000	36.000	25.000	23.000	0.3149	0.3981	0.4917	0.3149	0.0331	0.1050	0.1381	0.1271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0530
predicted_AB	3.9590
predicted_AVG	0.3093
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	1.2250
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3738
predicted_R	0.8160
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.5188
predicted_SO	0.5860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1320	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0530	0.0583	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.9590	3.8486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5210	0.4040	0.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2250	1.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1970	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3738	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.8160	0.7772	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5050	0.4844	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5188	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4790	0.5860	0.5232	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.786	3.000	1.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	-0.340	-0.250
predicted_R	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.147	0.147
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	-0.002
predicted_H	0.654	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.734	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.147	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.043
predicted_BB	0.301	-0.005
predicted_H	0.617	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.040
predicted_R	0.247	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.175	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.746	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.3158	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2188	0.3158	0.2500	0.2188	0.0312	0.1250	0.2812
season	0.60	13	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2308	0.3111	0.2564	0.2308	0.0256	0.1026	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4400
predicted_AVG	0.2386
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3063
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.3187
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1320	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4400	3.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3020	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.8210	0.6536	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0440	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3063	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.3570	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2390	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3187	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.8190	0.7343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Heriberto Hernández (681715) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.250	0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.194	0.250	-0.194	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.018
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.620	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	-0.028
predicted_H	0.682	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.217	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.005
predicted_H	0.644	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.007
predicted_R	0.197	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.778	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.1842	0.1842	0.1053	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.60	20	-	72.000	12.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	15.000	0.1667	0.2405	0.1944	0.1667	0.1250	0.0972	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.1920
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.7020
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2506
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.2459
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0480	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0260	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.6550	3.6203	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1920	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2740	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7020	0.6818	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2506	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2470	0.2174	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4430	0.4285	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2459	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7930	0.7659	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681715
playerID	681715
playerName	Heriberto Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.3440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	4.021	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.021	4.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.344	0.750	-0.344	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.170	1.000	-0.170	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.383	3.000	-1.383	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.800	-0.376	-0.800
predicted_R	0.617	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.617	2.000	-0.617	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.750	-0.492	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.702	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.702	0.000	2.298	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	4.021	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.170	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.617	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.702	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.010
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.008
predicted_AB	4.006	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.338	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	0.011
predicted_H	1.330	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.594	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	4.006	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.178	-0.003
predicted_H	1.257	-0.074
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.032
predicted_R	0.537	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.403	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.671	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.021

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4348	0.5000	0.4000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3250	0.3636	0.4000	0.3250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0500	0.1250
season	0.60	47	-	189.000	65.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	21.000	29.000	8.000	33.000	0.3439	0.3762	0.4921	0.3439	0.0212	0.1111	0.0423	0.1746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.9850
predicted_AVG	0.3375
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_H	1.3450
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3750
predicted_R	0.5600
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.4651
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.2780	0.2645	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0210	3.9850	4.0062	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3375	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1700	0.1960	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.3450	1.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6170	0.5600	0.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4520	0.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4651	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7020	0.6010	0.6604	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.344

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 42

All-history rows before 20260520: 42

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2270

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	3.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	0.000	-0.762	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.000	-0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	1.119	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.119	0.000	-0.119	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	1.119	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.425	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.437	0.008
predicted_H	0.752	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	-0.096

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.425	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.007
predicted_H	0.711	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.029
predicted_R	0.378	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.304	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.040	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.1429	0.1714
season	0.60	42	-	141.000	32.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	47.000	0.2270	0.3333	0.3688	0.2270	0.0284	0.0993	0.1277	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.2271
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3250
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.3823
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1930	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.5240	3.4246	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2271	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4480	0.4367	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8000	0.7524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3250	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.5060	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3590	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3823	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1190	0.8830	1.0234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Janson Junk (676083) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	3.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	7.000	0.444	-4.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.444	10.000	0.556	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.400	5.200	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.111	4.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	12.000	26.000	7.000	22.000	4.000	3.8571	1.1786	0.4286	0.9286	0.2500	0.7857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	9	50.000	23.000	49.000	13.000	37.000	6.000	4.1400	1.2400	0.4600	0.9800	0.2600	0.7400	0.1200
season	0.20	9	50.000	23.000	49.000	13.000	37.000	6.000	4.1400	1.2400	0.4600	0.9800	0.2600	0.7400	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6900
predicted_ER	2.5580
predicted_ERA	4.0630
predicted_H	5.3560
predicted_HR	0.7520
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.7270
predicted_WHIP	1.2434

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6900	1.3444	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.5580	2.7794	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0630	4.0630	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.3560	5.6786	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7520	0.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.7270	3.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2434	1.2434	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	4.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676083
playerID	676083
playerName	Janson Junk
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.429	2.000	-1.429	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.829	2.000	-0.729	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.786	0.000	-1.786	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	4.000	16.000	11.000	15.000	1.000	1.9636	1.4727	0.2182	0.8727	0.6000	0.8182	0.0546
season	0.20	14	27.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	25.000	1.000	1.3333	1.2963	0.1482	0.7407	0.5556	0.9259	0.0370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7060
predicted_ER	0.5140
predicted_ERA	2.7564
predicted_H	1.4780
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4240
predicted_WHIP	1.3016

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7060	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5140	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7564	2.7564	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4780	0.6592	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0575	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4240	0.6351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3016	1.3016	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.33
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	43
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.850	3.000	1.150	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	3.000	-0.450	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	0.200	0.150	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.050	2.000	0.950	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	4.2632	1.7368	0.4737	0.9474	0.7895	0.9474
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	9.000	9.000	9.000	3.9706	1.5882	0.4412	0.7941	0.7941	0.7941
season	0.20	20	19.100	9.000	15.000	17.000	21.000	4.1897	1.6552	0.4655	0.7759	0.8793	1.0862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6020
predicted_ER	0.4970
predicted_ERA	4.1984
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.4699

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.6020	1.4256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4970	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1984	4.1984	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9640	0.9852	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0000	1.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4699	1.4699	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.19
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 11

All-history rows before 20260520: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.364	2.000	-0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	9.0000	1.7500	1.0000	0.7500	1.0000	1.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	10.0000	1.5556	1.1111	1.0000	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	11	10.000	10.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	9.0000	1.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_ER	0.6050
predicted_ERA	5.6901
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0970
predicted_WHIP	1.4069

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4620	0.8131	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6050	0.8627	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6901	5.6901	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8850	0.9600	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1050	0.6890	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0970	1.0337	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4069	1.4069	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260520_BAL@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.553085, "home_win_probability": 0.553085, "away_win_probability": 0.44691499999999995, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TB", "confidence": 0.553085, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 4 - 5 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 4 - 5 TB	TB	0.553	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 3 - 4 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	4-6	0.400	3.50	5.40	-19	2L	average	weak
Home TB	7-3	0.700	6	4.10	19	3W	hot	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	21-28	0.429	-57	-1.163	True
Home TB	32-15	0.681	38	0.809	True
Signal	-	-	1.972	2.350	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	BAL @ TB	1 - 4	TB	3	blowout
2026-05-18	BAL @ TB	6 - 16	TB	10	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	33	8	3	0	1	1	9
Player finalized TB	32	9	6	0	4	2	8
Player model fractional BAL	32.34	7.06	4.03	1.01	3.37	3.42	8.75
Player model fractional TB	31.20	7.96	4.81	0.83	4.53	3.46	7.06
Simulation box BAL	34	7	3	2	3	2	7
Simulation box TB	31	8	4	0	4	2	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Shane Baz	4.20	4	2	8	2	5.00	1.44	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.04	1.09	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	2	0	2	0	0	3.01	1.12	True
Home TB	Starter	Steven Matz	5.20	1	6	6	1	3.97	1.21	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.67	1.28	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Kevin Kelly	1.10	1	0	1	0	2.42	0.99	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	0.20	1	0	0	1	4.30	1.47	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 30

All-history rows before 20260520: 30

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2627

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.933	4.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.013	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.033	1.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.250	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.932	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.008
predicted_H	0.921	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.721	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.932	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.256	-0.004
predicted_H	0.884	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.234	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.012
predicted_R	0.476	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.670	-0.051
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.761	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.933

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2273	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2326	0.4500	0.2000	0.0750	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	30	-	118.000	31.000	8.000	7.000	24.000	15.000	8.000	21.000	0.2627	0.3125	0.5085	0.2627	0.0593	0.2034	0.0678	0.1780

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.2844
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.7370
predicted_SLG	0.4763
predicted_SO	0.8260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.1810	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9330	3.9300	3.9318	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2480	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9390	0.9214	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2490	0.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2844	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5320	0.5126	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7370	0.7207	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4763	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.8260	0.7497	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.190	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.190	5.000	0.810	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.750	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.586	0.750
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	3.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.524	0.000	2.476	3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.441	0.750
predicted_R	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	1.750	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.000	1.481	1.750
predicted_SO	0.952	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.285	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.544	-0.027
predicted_H	0.527	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.285	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.536	-0.008
predicted_H	0.506	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.053	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.013
predicted_R	0.559	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.980	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	3.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.1176	0.2308	0.2353	0.1177	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471	0.3235
season	0.60	21	-	67.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	12.000	20.000	0.1642	0.3086	0.2687	0.1642	0.0299	0.1045	0.1791	0.2985

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4460
predicted_AVG	0.1713
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.2997
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.0820	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1900	3.4460	3.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1713	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4970	0.5436	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5900	0.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1180	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.5730	0.6019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3460	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.2997	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	0.9890	0.9657	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 28

All-history rows before 20260520: 28

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	3.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	-0.233	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	-0.296	-0.500
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.667	-0.267	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.107	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	1.000	-1.107	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.259	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	0.016
predicted_H	0.759	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.416	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.259	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.047
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.004
predicted_H	0.729	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.053
predicted_R	0.387	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.273	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.060
predicted_SO	1.111	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.4000	0.3333	0.2000	0.1333	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.4242	0.3636	0.1212	0.0909	0.3333
season	0.60	28	-	90.000	21.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	7.000	31.000	0.2333	0.2959	0.2667	0.2333	0.0556	0.0778	0.3444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2711
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3344
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.3416
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1530	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.3320	3.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2711	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2910	0.2656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.9040	0.7593	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3344	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.4530	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3470	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	1.0760	1.0952	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-SS
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 34

All-history rows before 20260520: 34

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2598

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	3.000	0.265	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.069	0.250
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.535	1.000
predicted_SO	1.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.029	1.000	-0.029	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.029	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.017
predicted_3B	0.031	0.002
predicted_AB	3.729	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.020
predicted_H	0.937	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.327	-0.000
predicted_R	0.563	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.729	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.004
predicted_H	0.899	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.142	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.029
predicted_R	0.524	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.056
predicted_SO	1.021	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.3514	0.3846	0.5946	0.3513	0.0270	0.1622	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.60	34	-	127.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	15.000	18.000	11.000	35.000	0.2598	0.3188	0.4646	0.2598	0.0472	0.1181	0.0866	0.2756

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.2750
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3267
predicted_R	0.6150
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.4796
predicted_SO	0.9720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2180	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0330	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.7190	3.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2750	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0230	0.9369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1590	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3267	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.6150	0.5632	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4670	0.4266	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4796	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0290	0.9720	1.0063	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2108

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	4.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.250	4.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.039	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.896	1.000	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.250	-0.014	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	-0.162	0.000
predicted_SO	1.312	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.312	2.000	-1.312	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	4.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	1.312	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.023
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.220	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.021
predicted_H	1.016	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.249	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.220	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.004
predicted_H	0.976	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.166	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.012
predicted_R	0.418	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.268	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 4.250

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5714	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.2619	0.2791	0.4048	0.2619	0.0238	0.0952	0.0238	0.2143
season	0.60	48	-	204.000	43.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	24.000	14.000	63.000	0.2108	0.2636	0.4118	0.2108	0.0490	0.1177	0.0686	0.3088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1780
predicted_AVG	0.2454
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.2889
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4368
predicted_SO	1.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2440	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2500	4.1780	4.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2454	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.2410	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0250	1.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2889	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3780	0.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4970	0.4929	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4368	0.4369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3120	1.1610	1.2494	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 39

All-history rows before 20260520: 39

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2552

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	5.000	0.282	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.400	-0.005	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	2.000	0.051	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.400	-0.022	-0.150
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.641	0.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.600	-0.171	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.087	0.010
predicted_H	0.883	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.319	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.086	-0.001
predicted_H	0.848	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.035
predicted_R	0.297	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.381	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.058
predicted_SO	0.751	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2368	0.2500	0.3158	0.2368	0.0000	0.0263	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.60	39	-	145.000	37.000	6.000	6.000	25.000	12.000	3.000	30.000	0.2552	0.2715	0.4207	0.2552	0.0414	0.1724	0.0207	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7920
predicted_AVG	0.2578
predicted_BB	0.1020
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2783
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4040
predicted_SO	0.6970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2540	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.7920	3.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1020	0.0870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9780	0.8834	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0990	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2783	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3360	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4540	0.4097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4040	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.6970	0.7401	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2216

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.776	3.000	-0.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.449	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.449	1.000	0.551	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	0.000	-0.837	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	-0.056	0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.551	0.000	-0.551	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.000	-0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	1.061	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	1.000	0.939	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.776	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.449	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.551	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.803	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.051
predicted_H	0.835	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	1.063	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.803	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.006
predicted_H	0.801	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.459	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.078	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2727	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2195	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.1026	0.0256	0.2821
season	0.60	49	-	185.000	41.000	12.000	8.000	26.000	27.000	22.000	52.000	0.2216	0.3062	0.4162	0.2216	0.0432	0.1405	0.1189	0.2811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.2265
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2851
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.3742
predicted_SO	1.0650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2450	0.2550	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7760	3.8400	3.8025	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2265	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4490	0.3260	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8700	0.8348	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2851	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5510	0.3570	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5130	0.4936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	1.0650	1.0627	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2616

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	4.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.938	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.938	0.000	-0.938	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	-0.938	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	1.000	-0.042	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.250	-0.416	-0.250
predicted_R	0.646	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.646	1.000	-0.646	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	1.000	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	1.000	-0.384	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.917	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	1.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.938	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.646	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.633	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.891	-0.047
predicted_H	0.892	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.626	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	0.085

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.878	-0.013
predicted_H	0.857	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.001
predicted_R	0.582	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.284	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.016	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2381	0.3333	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	13.000	0.2286	0.4000	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0571	0.2857	0.3714
season	0.60	48	-	172.000	45.000	15.000	2.000	14.000	31.000	45.000	44.000	0.2616	0.4155	0.3837	0.2616	0.0116	0.0814	0.2616	0.2558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2496
predicted_BB	0.8240
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.3850
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3910
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.2600	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.7030	3.6328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2496	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9380	0.8240	0.8907	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9240	0.8924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0870	0.0829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3850	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6460	0.5970	0.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3140	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3910	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.1210	1.0016	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Weston Wilson (642215) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.545	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.154	4.000	0.846	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	-0.286	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	2.000	-0.615	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.500	-0.162	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.393	1.250	-0.393	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.736	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.008
predicted_H	0.579	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.177	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.736	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.063
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.007
predicted_H	0.555	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.049
predicted_R	0.349	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.164	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.104
predicted_SO	0.764	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2857	0.4118	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	25.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2800	0.4194	0.4000	0.2800	0.0400	0.0400	0.2000	0.2800
season	0.60	11	-	28.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2857	0.4118	0.3929	0.2857	0.0357	0.0357	0.1786	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1560
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3627
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.2580
predicted_SLG	0.4066
predicted_SO	0.8090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0710	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5450	3.1560	2.7362	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4280	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.8390	0.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1210	0.0860	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3627	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4020	0.3759	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.2580	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4066	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8090	0.7527	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	15.43
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	3B-P
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	642215
playerID	642215
playerName	Weston Wilson
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Shane Baz (669358) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.444	3.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.222	6.000	1.778	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.444	7.000	-1.244	-2.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	4.667	4.000	-2.667	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	18.000	30.000	14.000	23.000	4.000	5.5227	1.5000	0.6136	1.0227	0.4773	0.7841	0.1364
last_10	0.35	9	51.100	30.000	56.000	22.000	42.000	6.000	5.2597	1.5195	0.5844	1.0909	0.4286	0.8182	0.1169
season	0.20	9	51.100	30.000	56.000	22.000	42.000	6.000	5.2597	1.5195	0.5844	1.0909	0.4286	0.8182	0.1169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4930
predicted_ER	3.2210
predicted_ERA	4.9992
predicted_H	5.8560
predicted_HR	0.7510
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.9450
predicted_WHIP	1.4397

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.4930	2.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	3.2210	3.6112	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9992	4.9992	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.8560	6.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7510	0.3748	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.9450	3.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4397	1.4397	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	30
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.26
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	108
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	69
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	669358
playerID	669358
playerName	Shane Baz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.948	0.200	0.152	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.238	1.000	0.762	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.1875	0.3750	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	9.000	3.000	13.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.8438	0.2812	1.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	20	22.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	26.000	4.000	2.4545	0.9091	0.2727	0.6818	0.2273	1.1818	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	3.0425
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0930
predicted_WHIP	1.0898

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3480	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0425	3.0425	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7420	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0497	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0930	1.6151	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0898	1.0898	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.182	2.000	-0.182	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	0.100	1.150	1.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	1.000	0.864	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	1.6154	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	1.0800	0.7200	0.1200	0.3600	0.3600	1.4400	0.0000
season	0.20	22	20.100	2.000	4.000	7.000	25.000	1.000	0.8852	0.5410	0.0984	0.1967	0.3443	1.2295	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.3170
predicted_ERA	3.0111
predicted_H	0.6950
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1250
predicted_WHIP	1.1219

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.1536	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3170	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0111	3.0111	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6950	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1250	1.6359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1219	1.1219	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	0.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: TB

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 24

All-history rows before 20260520: 24

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	0.875	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.875	3.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.333	0.254	0.167
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	1.292	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.667	0.417	0.083
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.057	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	-0.026
predicted_H	0.736	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.380	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.897	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.481	0.006
predicted_H	0.762	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.004
predicted_R	0.405	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.885	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3056	0.2500	0.0000	0.1389	0.1111	0.3889
season	0.60	24	-	69.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	12.000	20.000	0.2464	0.3690	0.3333	0.2464	0.0145	0.1304	0.1739	0.2899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3620
predicted_AVG	0.2566
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3475
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3587
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1870	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8750	3.3620	3.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2566	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4310	0.4743	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8630	0.7357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3475	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3890	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4250	0.3654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3587	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.0040	0.8968	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	0.297	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.250	-0.175	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.649	1.000	-0.649	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.250	-0.240	-0.250
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.757	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.757	1.000	0.243	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.243	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.757	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	0.001
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.682	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.032
predicted_H	0.869	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.098	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.488	0.083
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.279	0.004
predicted_H	0.900	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.108	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.031
predicted_R	0.520	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.738	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.4706	0.5714	0.6471	0.4706	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3750	0.3889	0.3056	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.60	37	-	137.000	24.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	9.000	28.000	0.1752	0.2400	0.2701	0.1752	0.0219	0.1022	0.0657	0.2044

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2577
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0980
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3286
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.3738
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0540	0.0560	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.6510	3.6821	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2577	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2430	0.3230	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9410	0.8686	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0980	0.0980	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3286	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.6130	0.4885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3830	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3738	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7570	0.7350	0.7482	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.368	2.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.256	0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.327	0.667
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.000	0.711	1.000
predicted_SO	0.889	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.645	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.016
predicted_H	0.523	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.404	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.893	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.645	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.321	0.004
predicted_H	0.542	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.026	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.016
predicted_R	0.430	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.882	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1538	0.2000	0.2308	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3214	0.3333	0.2500	0.0417	0.0833	0.3333
season	0.60	19	-	45.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	0.2444	0.3396	0.2889	0.2444	0.0889	0.1333	0.3556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.9200
predicted_AVG	0.2335
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3071
predicted_R	0.4320
predicted_RBI	0.2760
predicted_SLG	0.3260
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1600	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.9200	2.6446	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2335	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2870	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.6820	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0340	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3071	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4320	0.4038	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2760	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3260	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.9020	0.8935	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2737

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.060	0.083
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.040	1.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.190	0.250
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	0.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	1.000	0.520	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.250	-0.056	0.083
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.871	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.002
predicted_H	0.995	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.496	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.200	0.003
predicted_H	1.031	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.014
predicted_R	0.528	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.822	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3478	0.3478	0.5217	0.3478	0.0000	0.2174	0.0000	0.2174
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4048	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0476	0.2619
season	0.60	25	-	95.000	26.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	0.2737	0.3100	0.3895	0.2737	0.0105	0.1263	0.0526	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3780
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9850
predicted_AVG	0.2802
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	1.1160
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3160
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.4138
predicted_SO	0.8870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3200	0.3780	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.9850	3.8708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1940	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.1160	0.9950	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.4570	0.4959	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5680	0.5075	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4138	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8870	0.8333	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2640

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	1.000	-0.109	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.870	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.870	3.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.333	-0.014	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	1.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.500	-0.106	-0.250
predicted_R	0.674	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.674	0.000	-0.674	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.587	0.000	-0.587	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	0.667	-0.261	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.739	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	2.000	-0.739	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.870	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.565	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.674	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.550	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.856	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.586	0.021
predicted_H	1.041	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.283	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.699	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.806	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.550	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.004
predicted_BB	0.594	0.008
predicted_H	1.079	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.293	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.003
predicted_R	0.744	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.858	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.545	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.870

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4783	0.7778	0.3333	0.1111	0.4444	0.2778	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	0.2750	0.3696	0.5500	0.2750	0.0750	0.2250	0.1500	0.1750
season	0.60	46	-	178.000	47.000	5.000	13.000	27.000	31.000	26.000	34.000	0.2640	0.3561	0.5112	0.2640	0.0730	0.1517	0.1461	0.1910

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8360
predicted_AVG	0.2755
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2870
predicted_OBP	0.3733
predicted_R	0.7340
predicted_RBI	0.8140
predicted_SLG	0.5498
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.1880	0.1416	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8700	3.8360	3.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2755	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5650	0.6160	0.5860	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0570	1.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2870	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3733	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6740	0.7340	0.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8140	0.8058	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5500	0.5498	0.5499	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.7590	0.7473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2816

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.047	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_AB	4.047	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.047	4.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.250	-0.032	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.140	1.000	-0.140	-1.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	1.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.488	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.186	0.000	0.814	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.250	-0.078	0.000
predicted_SO	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.442	1.000	-0.442	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.047	-
predicted_3B	0.070	-
predicted_AB	4.047	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	0.442	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.023
predicted_3B	0.078	0.008
predicted_AB	4.026	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	0.019
predicted_H	1.042	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	0.461	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.078	0.000
predicted_AB	4.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.007
predicted_BB	0.256	0.003
predicted_H	1.079	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.003
predicted_R	0.507	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.455	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.047

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.3000	0.2250	0.0500	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.60	43	-	174.000	49.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	21.000	10.000	19.000	0.2816	0.3172	0.3276	0.2816	0.0460	0.0575	0.1092

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0890
predicted_AB	3.9960
predicted_AVG	0.2612
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.3092
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.3449
predicted_SO	0.4880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0470	0.1020	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0700	0.0890	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0470	3.9960	4.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2612	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.2800	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0440	1.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.4600	0.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2330	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3449	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4420	0.4880	0.4608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 16

All-history rows before 20260520: 16

System season_avg: 0.3540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.354	1.000	-0.104	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	3.000	-0.062	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.800	-0.157	-0.550
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	3.000	-0.750	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.549	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.562	1.667	-0.312	-1.417
predicted_SO	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.549	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.009
predicted_3B	0.066	0.004
predicted_AB	3.108	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	0.001
predicted_H	0.983	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.647	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.549	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.066	0.000
predicted_AB	3.108	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.001
predicted_BB	0.318	0.004
predicted_H	1.019	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.010
predicted_R	0.466	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.689	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.548	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.641	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.328 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.4375	0.4737	0.8125	0.4375	0.0625	0.2500	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3667	0.4118	0.6667	0.3667	0.0667	0.3333	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.60	16	-	48.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.3542	0.4074	0.5625	0.3542	0.0417	0.2500	0.1042	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0720
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.3273
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	1.0840
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3800
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.5487
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1510	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0720	0.0655	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3120	3.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3273	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3160	0.3134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0840	0.9832	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1460	0.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3800	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4370	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.7160	0.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5490	0.5487	0.5489	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6960	0.6495	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.354

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	0.000	0.023	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.250	-0.114	0.000
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	1.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.000	-0.195	0.250
predicted_SO	1.068	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.068	1.000	-0.068	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	1.068	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.756	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	-0.008
predicted_H	0.819	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.634	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	1.075	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.003
predicted_BB	0.591	0.008
predicted_H	0.849	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.128	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.006
predicted_R	0.613	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.675	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.001
predicted_SO	1.061	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	12.000	0.2105	0.3333	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.1579	0.1842	0.3158
season	0.60	44	-	164.000	43.000	6.000	8.000	35.000	25.000	26.000	47.000	0.2622	0.3636	0.4451	0.2622	0.0488	0.2134	0.1585	0.2866

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3253
predicted_R	0.5870
predicted_RBI	0.6550
predicted_SLG	0.3650
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1470	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7970	3.7558	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2227	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5710	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8460	0.8189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1300	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3253	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.5870	0.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6550	0.6344	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0680	1.0850	1.0750	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2202

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.114	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.114	3.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.036
predicted_3B	0.072	0.015
predicted_AB	3.196	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.013
predicted_H	0.672	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.072	0.000
predicted_AB	3.196	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.422	0.006
predicted_H	0.697	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.021
predicted_R	0.592	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.348	-0.053
predicted_SO	0.840	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5882	0.2941	0.3529	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2727	0.3514	0.4848	0.2727	0.2424	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.60	35	-	109.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	18.000	15.000	30.000	0.2202	0.3200	0.3119	0.2202	0.1284	0.1376	0.2752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0960
predicted_AB	3.3230
predicted_AVG	0.2453
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.8150
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3300
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.6060
predicted_SLG	0.4007
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2630	0.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0960	0.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1140	3.3230	3.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2453	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3970	0.4164	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.8150	0.6724	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0204	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.6210	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.6060	0.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4007	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8430	0.8515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Steven Matz (571927) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 7

All-history rows before 20260520: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.857	2.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.286	1.000	-1.286	0.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	6.000	-0.100	-0.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	11.000	20.000	10.000	18.000	5.000	3.7595	1.1392	0.4177	0.7595	0.3797	0.6835	0.1899
last_10	0.35	7	37.100	16.000	28.000	13.000	28.000	6.000	3.8571	1.0982	0.4286	0.7500	0.3482	0.7500	0.1607
season	0.20	7	37.100	16.000	28.000	13.000	28.000	6.000	3.8571	1.0982	0.4286	0.7500	0.3482	0.7500	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9980
predicted_ER	2.3540
predicted_ERA	3.9726
predicted_H	4.4440
predicted_HR	0.8590
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.2930
predicted_WHIP	1.2079

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9980	1.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.3540	1.6417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9726	3.9726	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.4440	5.2625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8590	0.9332	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.2930	5.1910	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2079	1.2079	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	571927
playerID	571927
playerName	Steven Matz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.882	1.000	0.218	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.091	1.000	-0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	0.6429	0.8571	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.000	2.0000	1.0000	0.2222	0.4444	0.5556	1.2222	0.0000
season	0.20	22	20.100	6.000	13.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.6557	1.0328	0.2951	0.6393	0.3934	1.1803	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_ER	0.4080
predicted_ERA	3.6707
predicted_H	0.7760
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1250
predicted_WHIP	1.2792

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5030	0.2093	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4080	0.1698	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6707	3.6707	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7760	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1250	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2792	1.2792	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.66
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.891	1.000	0.209	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	7.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6562	0.0000	0.6562	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
season	0.20	22	23.100	6.000	13.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	2.3143	0.7286	0.2571	0.5571	0.1714	0.7286	0.0429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.2690
predicted_ERA	2.4235
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7810
predicted_WHIP	0.9863

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.0917	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2690	0.6852	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4235	2.4235	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7740	0.9027	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0720	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7810	0.3363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9863	0.9863	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 11

All-history rows before 20260520: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	0.100	-0.473	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	1.1250	0.7500	1.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	11	8.100	5.000	11.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0400	0.6000	1.3200	0.7200	1.5600	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.3180
predicted_ERA	4.2960
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7660
predicted_WHIP	1.4681

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2970	0.7663	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3180	0.7733	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2960	4.2960	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6810	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7660	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4681	1.4681	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260520_BOS@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.540457, "home_win_probability": 0.45954300000000003, "away_win_probability": 0.540457, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 1 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 1, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 1 KC", "confidence": 0.540457, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 1 KC", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 1 KC", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 2 - 1 KC	BOS	0.540	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 3 - 1 KC	BOS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	5-5	0.500	2.40	2.50	-1	2W	cold	strong
Home KC	2-8	0.200	3	4.40	-14	2L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	21-27	0.438	-12	-0.250	True
Home KC	20-29	0.408	-29	-0.592	True
Signal	-	-	-0.342	-0.386	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	BOS @ KC	7 - 1	BOS	6	blowout
2026-05-18	BOS @ KC	3 - 1	BOS	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target KC	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	32	9	0	0	2	0	8
Player finalized KC	31	8	1	0	0	0	8
Player model fractional BOS	31.81	7.25	3.26	0.79	3.11	2.99	7.19
Player model fractional KC	31.61	6.82	3.33	0.74	2.91	2.87	7.50
Simulation box BOS	31	4	3	1	3	3	8
Simulation box KC	32	5	1	0	1	2	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Connelly Early	5.20	1	5	4	0	3.83	1.22	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1.10	0	0	1	2	2.59	1.10	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	0	1	0	0	3.17	1.02	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	1	0	1	0	0	3.22	1.13	True
Home KC	Starter	Michael Wacha	6.10	3	5	3	3	3.97	1.19	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1	0	1	0	0	3.17	1.37	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	1	0	1	0	0	4.18	1.46	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	0.20	0	1	1	0	3.25	1.23	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Nick Sogard (686765) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 3

All-history rows before 20260520: 3

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.636	0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.690	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.009
predicted_H	0.836	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.001
predicted_H	0.831	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.025
predicted_R	0.084	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.375	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.701	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3636	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.20	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3636	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818
season	0.60	3	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3636	0.2727	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2524
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.3133
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.3870
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2260	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7620	3.6899	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2524	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2970	0.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9500	0.8362	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3133	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3500	0.0844	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4340	0.3778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7980	0.6986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686765
playerID	686765
playerName	Nick Sogard
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.149	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.149	0.000	0.851	1.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.830	5.000	0.170	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.400	0.206	0.100
predicted_BB	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	2.000	0.872	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.137	0.100
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.400	0.306	0.350
predicted_SO	0.787	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.787	0.000	0.213	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.426	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.787	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.002
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.881	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.051
predicted_H	1.008	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.424	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	0.779	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.001
predicted_H	1.002	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.008
predicted_R	0.421	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.305	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.782	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.3750	0.2750	0.0250	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.60	47	-	180.000	53.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	21.000	20.000	37.000	0.2944	0.3632	0.4444	0.2944	0.0333	0.1056	0.1111	0.2056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.9550
predicted_AVG	0.2649
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3148
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3883
predicted_SO	0.7680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1490	0.1530	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.9550	3.8815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4260	0.3020	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0480	1.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3148	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.3910	0.4239	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3170	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3883	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7870	0.7680	0.7792	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2819

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.634	5.000	-0.634	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.400	0.051	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	2.000	-0.024	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.400	0.148	0.100
predicted_R	0.439	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	2.000	0.561	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.366	0.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.600	-0.083	-0.267
predicted_SO	0.927	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	2.000	-0.927	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.634	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.244	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.039
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.640	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	0.024
predicted_H	0.986	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.291	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.919	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.001
predicted_H	0.980	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.131	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.045
predicted_R	0.434	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.922	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.3056	0.3902	0.4722	0.3056	0.0278	0.0833	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.60	41	-	149.000	42.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	18.000	10.000	38.000	0.2819	0.3515	0.4161	0.2819	0.0201	0.1007	0.0671	0.2550

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.6480
predicted_AVG	0.2888
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3640
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.4368
predicted_SO	0.9070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2680	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0270	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6340	3.6480	3.6397	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2888	0.2889	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2440	0.3030	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0540	0.9862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0730	0.0712	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3640	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.4340	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3080	0.2913	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4368	0.4369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	0.9070	0.9189	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2577

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.622	5.000	-0.622	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.400	-0.258	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	-0.933	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.400	-0.108	-0.150
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	3.000	-0.667	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.400	-0.479	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.156	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	1.000	1.844	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.622	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.664	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.048
predicted_H	0.904	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.220	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.445	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.746	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000
predicted_SO	1.105	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.664	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.001
predicted_H	0.899	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.087	0.000
predicted_HR	0.217	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.006
predicted_R	0.442	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.741	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.109	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.190)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2683	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.2162	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	45	-	163.000	42.000	6.000	10.000	30.000	21.000	20.000	52.000	0.2577	0.3575	0.4785	0.2577	0.0614	0.1840	0.1227	0.3190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7250
predicted_AVG	0.2560
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.2340
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.7840
predicted_SLG	0.4892
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1620	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6220	3.7250	3.6643	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2560	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3270	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9540	0.9045	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2340	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4140	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7840	0.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4892	0.4891	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.0330	1.1055	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2394

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	1.000	-0.048	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.381	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	4.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.250	-0.239	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.250	-0.087	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.750	-0.310	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.057	0.009
predicted_AB	3.397	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.058
predicted_H	0.771	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.320	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.314	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.397	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.001
predicted_H	0.767	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.001
predicted_R	0.318	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.261	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.315	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.2000	0.2353	0.3333	0.2000	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2121	0.2500	0.2727	0.2121	0.0303	0.0303	0.0606
season	0.60	21	-	71.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2394	0.3373	0.3099	0.2394	0.0704	0.1268	0.0845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0730
predicted_AB	3.4240
predicted_AVG	0.2309
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3010
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.2690
predicted_SLG	0.3308
predicted_SO	0.3620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1070	0.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0730	0.0573	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.4240	3.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2309	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.2740	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7910	0.7715	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2980	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2690	0.2634	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3308	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2860	0.3620	0.3143	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1916

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	1.000	-0.220	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.073	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.073	3.000	-0.073	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.667	-0.192	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	2.000	-0.366	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	2.000	-0.780	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.800	-0.265	-0.800
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.512	2.000	-0.512	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	3.000	-0.537	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.335	2.000	-0.335	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	1.000	-1.146	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.073	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.998	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	0.056
predicted_H	0.844	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.138	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.481	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.566	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.998	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.002
predicted_H	0.838	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.022
predicted_R	0.477	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.561	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.136	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.073

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.2941	0.4583	0.6471	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	0.1795	0.2826	0.3333	0.1795	0.0256	0.1026	0.1282	0.2821
season	0.60	41	-	167.000	32.000	9.000	5.000	22.000	21.000	15.000	47.000	0.1916	0.2649	0.3353	0.1916	0.0299	0.1317	0.0898	0.2814

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8890
predicted_AVG	0.2145
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.5590
predicted_SLG	0.3971
predicted_SO	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.3040	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0730	3.8890	3.9977	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2145	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.5030	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8340	0.8435	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1340	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4360	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5590	0.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3971	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.1120	1.1321	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 36

All-history rows before 20260520: 36

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.250	-0.208	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	-0.278	-0.250
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.250	-0.300	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	1.000	0.306	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.401	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.003
predicted_H	0.612	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.244	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.401	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.001
predicted_H	0.608	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.020
predicted_R	0.242	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.227	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.722	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1389	0.2051	0.2222	0.1389	0.0278	0.0278	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.60	36	-	120.000	25.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	25.000	0.2083	0.2782	0.3000	0.2083	0.0167	0.0750	0.0833	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5060
predicted_AVG	0.1968
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2602
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.3105
predicted_SO	0.7570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1020	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5060	3.4015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1968	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2700	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6900	0.6115	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2780	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2570	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3105	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.7570	0.7190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 29

All-history rows before 20260520: 29

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2198

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.138	3.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.250	-0.290	-0.250
predicted_R	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.966	2.000	0.034	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.138	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.966	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.151	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.033
predicted_H	0.637	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.399	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.121	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.960	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.151	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.001
predicted_H	0.633	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.051
predicted_R	0.396	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.121	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.052
predicted_SO	0.964	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.1852	0.3529	0.2963	0.1852	0.0000	0.0000	0.1852	0.3333
season	0.60	29	-	91.000	20.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	28.000	0.2198	0.2900	0.3407	0.2198	0.0220	0.0330	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2390
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1710
predicted_AVG	0.2303
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3163
predicted_R	0.4320
predicted_RBI	0.1400
predicted_SLG	0.3602
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.2390	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1380	3.1710	3.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2303	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.3270	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7300	0.6374	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0560	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3163	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.4320	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1400	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3602	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9660	0.9510	0.9603	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (643396) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	3.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	3.000	-0.714	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.021	0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.991	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.007
predicted_H	0.696	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.445	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.535	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.021	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.991	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.042
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.001
predicted_H	0.691	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.039
predicted_R	0.442	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.232	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.061
predicted_SO	0.537	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.4000	0.4706	0.4000	0.4000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3103	0.3750	0.3103	0.3103	0.0690	0.1035	0.1379
season	0.60	14	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.2500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2620
predicted_AVG	0.2727
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_H	0.8890
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3379
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.3343
predicted_SO	0.6050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0630	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.2620	2.9912	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3060	0.2926	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8890	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3379	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4780	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.3020	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3343	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6050	0.5348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	643396
playerID	643396
playerName	Isiah Kiner-Falefa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connelly Early (813349) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	0.000	-2.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	2.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.333	5.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.167	5.000	0.033	0.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	6.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	12.000	24.000	8.000	25.000	6.000	3.8571	1.1429	0.4286	0.8571	0.2857	0.8929	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	47.200	17.000	39.000	18.000	45.000	7.000	3.2098	1.1958	0.3566	0.8182	0.3776	0.9441	0.1469
season	0.20	9	47.200	17.000	39.000	18.000	45.000	7.000	3.2098	1.1958	0.3566	0.8182	0.3776	0.9441	0.1469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9060
predicted_ER	2.3790
predicted_ERA	3.8337
predicted_H	4.8970
predicted_HR	0.9370
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.2183

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.9060	0.9513	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.3790	1.6883	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8337	3.8337	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.8970	4.4477	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9370	0.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.1770	4.0866	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2183	1.2183	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	813349
playerID	813349
playerName	Connelly Early
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	1.588	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.147	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	1.000	-1.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.0000	0.8000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.0000	0.7241	0.0000	0.3103	0.4138	1.5517
season	0.20	17	16.200	1.000	7.000	7.000	22.000	0.5400	0.8400	0.0600	0.4200	0.4200	1.3200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.5945
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1810
predicted_WHIP	1.1042

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4620	1.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5945	2.5945	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6420	0.8584	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1810	1.6760	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1042	1.1042	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.005	1.000	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.263	1.000	-0.263

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	3.4839	0.9677	0.3871	0.8710	0.0968	1.1613	0.0968
season	0.20	19	19.100	6.000	14.000	6.000	24.000	2.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.7241	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.3520
predicted_ERA	3.1704
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0970
predicted_WHIP	1.0215

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.1052	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3520	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1704	3.1704	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7660	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0970	1.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0215	1.0215	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	1.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	2.000	-0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000	1.2857
last_10	0.35	9	8.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.7500	0.5000	0.2500	1.3750
season	0.20	9	8.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.7500	0.5000	0.2500	1.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3570
predicted_ERA	3.2174
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0410
predicted_WHIP	1.1331

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3570	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2174	3.2174	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8230	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0410	1.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1331	1.1331	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: KC

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.553	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	4.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	0.000	-0.868	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.132	3.000	-0.132	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.553	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.018
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.589	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.024
predicted_H	0.819	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.258	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	1.097	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.589	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.003
predicted_H	0.789	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.026
predicted_R	0.405	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.242	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.045
predicted_SO	1.109	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2564	0.4211	0.2368	0.0263	0.0526	0.0263	0.2632
season	0.60	38	-	135.000	33.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	17.000	12.000	43.000	0.2444	0.3154	0.4148	0.2444	0.0296	0.0593	0.0889	0.3185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2487
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3040
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.4362
predicted_SO	1.0450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.2820	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5530	3.6430	3.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2487	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.2570	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9060	0.8185	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1230	0.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4060	0.4306	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2840	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4362	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	1.0450	1.0971	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2634

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.043	4.000	-1.043	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.070	0.083
predicted_BB	0.391	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	0.609	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	1.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.175	0.250
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.250	-0.059	0.083
predicted_SO	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	1.000	0.348	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.082	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	-0.031
predicted_H	0.969	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.630	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.082	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.004
predicted_H	0.935	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.002
predicted_R	0.523	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.298	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.637	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.043

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.1739	0.1739	0.2174	0.1739	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3095	0.2381	0.0000	0.0714	0.0952	0.0952
season	0.60	46	-	186.000	49.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	25.000	18.000	30.000	0.2634	0.3252	0.3925	0.2634	0.0161	0.0968	0.0968	0.1613

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.1370
predicted_AVG	0.2409
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2926
predicted_R	0.5740
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.3479
predicted_SO	0.5990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2830	0.2600	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0430	4.1370	4.0818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2409	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3170	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9970	0.9694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2926	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.5740	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3270	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3479	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.5990	0.6301	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Starling Marte (516782) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	4.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.250	-0.076	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.250	-0.125	0.000
predicted_R	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.250	-0.145	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.367	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.313	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	0.026
predicted_H	0.951	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.185	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.003
predicted_H	0.916	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.049
predicted_R	0.174	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.232	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.967	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.4375	0.5263	0.4375	0.4375	0.0625	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.3636	0.4211	0.4242	0.3636	0.0606	0.0909	0.2424
season	0.60	13	-	43.000	14.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	0.3256	0.3750	0.3953	0.3256	0.0465	0.0698	0.3023

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.3128
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	1.0890
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3725
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.4044
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1800	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.4830	3.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3128	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.3080	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0890	0.9505	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3725	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.2470	0.1854	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2800	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4044	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8730	0.9571	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	516782
playerID	516782
playerName	Starling Marte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.368	4.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.031	0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	-0.088	0.250
predicted_R	0.395	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.172	0.500
predicted_SO	1.105	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.105	3.000	-1.105	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.368	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	1.105	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.381	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.516	-0.010
predicted_H	0.638	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.510	-0.006
predicted_H	0.616	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.027
predicted_R	0.338	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.081	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2857	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	0.1515	0.2927	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.0909	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.60	38	-	128.000	28.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	20.000	42.000	0.2188	0.3377	0.3281	0.2188	0.0234	0.1172	0.1562	0.3281

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.1960
predicted_BB	0.5010
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3162
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.2807
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1100	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3680	3.3990	3.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1960	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.5010	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6660	0.6385	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.3070	0.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3920	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2807	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1050	1.0170	1.0696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3005

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.939	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.939	4.000	0.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.250	-0.301	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.184	1.000	-1.184	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.250	-0.372	-0.250
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.250	-0.482	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.755	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.755	0.000	0.245	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.939	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.755	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.934	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.034
predicted_H	1.104	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.461	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.934	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.005
predicted_H	1.064	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.006
predicted_R	0.433	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.760	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.939

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.3077	0.3721	0.5641	0.3077	0.0769	0.1538	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.60	49	-	193.000	58.000	12.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	23.000	23.000	37.000	0.3005	0.3716	0.4819	0.3005	0.0363	0.1192	0.1192	0.1917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.2861
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	1.1230
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3486
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4540
predicted_SO	0.7480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2450	0.2040	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0120	0.0167	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9390	3.9260	3.9336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.3870	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1230	1.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4490	0.4607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4470	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4540	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7550	0.7480	0.7521	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.214	0.000	0.036	0.250
predicted_SO	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	1.000	1.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.062	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	-0.010
predicted_H	0.500	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.168	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.469	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.488	0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.005
predicted_H	0.482	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.168	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.038
predicted_R	0.441	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.408	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.493	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0909	0.1818	0.2727
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.1724	0.3243	0.2069	0.1724	0.2414	0.1724	0.1379
season	0.60	14	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2941	0.2143	0.1667	0.1667	0.1429	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1830
predicted_AVG	0.1752
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HBP	0.1680
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2965
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.2538
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1280	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1830	3.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1752	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.4010	0.4194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5580	0.5001	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1680	0.1680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2965	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4090	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4810	0.4343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.6010	0.4878	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1989

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.851	2.000	0.149	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.191	2.000	-0.191	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.766	0.000	0.234	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.249	0.500	0.001	-0.250
predicted_R	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_SO	0.894	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.894	0.000	-0.894	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.851	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.191	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.362	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.894	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.776	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	0.054
predicted_H	0.748	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.104	-
predicted_HR	0.168	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.408	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.862	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.003
predicted_H	0.722	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.162	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.039
predicted_R	0.346	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.872	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.851

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3333	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2927	0.3714	0.2000	0.0571	0.0857	0.1143	0.2286
season	0.60	47	-	181.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	17.000	9.000	42.000	0.1989	0.2487	0.3425	0.1989	0.0387	0.1105	0.0497	0.2320

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.2031
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HBP	0.1040
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.2785
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3603
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1060	0.0760	0.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8510	3.6700	3.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2031	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1910	0.3230	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7460	0.7484	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1040	0.1040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1660	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2785	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3620	0.3770	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4060	0.4084	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3603	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8940	0.8170	0.8623	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Elias Díaz (553869) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.133	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.021
predicted_H	0.560	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.186	-0.002
predicted_H	0.540	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.046
predicted_R	0.344	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.719	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.4000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.20	6	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.60	6	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.2070
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.2645
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.4042
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2020	0.2975	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4900	3.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2070	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2460	0.1884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7220	0.5601	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1570	0.1227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2645	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4540	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.5300	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4042	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8300	0.7112	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	553869
playerID	553869
playerName	Elias Díaz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2797

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.189	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.189	3.000	-1.189	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.333	-0.280	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.189	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	0.811	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	1.000	-0.892	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.333	-0.003	0.000
predicted_R	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.333	-0.424	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.811	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	2.000	-0.811	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.189	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.351	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.018
predicted_3B	0.041	0.014
predicted_AB	3.287	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.191	0.002
predicted_H	0.786	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.343	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.287	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.046
predicted_BB	0.189	-0.002
predicted_H	0.758	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.052
predicted_R	0.323	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.198	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.069
predicted_SO	0.865	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5263	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.3824	0.2647	0.0000	0.0588	0.0294	0.2647
season	0.60	37	-	118.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	13.000	7.000	30.000	0.2797	0.3359	0.4237	0.2797	0.0254	0.0848	0.0593	0.2542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0620
predicted_AB	3.4380
predicted_AVG	0.2764
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3242
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.4284
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.2080	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0620	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1890	3.4380	3.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2764	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.1930	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.9500	0.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3242	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3510	0.3310	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2560	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4284	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.9240	0.8556	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Wacha (608379) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.333	5.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.344	6.000	-0.244	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.222	5.000	-0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.100	15.000	26.000	10.000	24.000	5.000	4.4505	1.1868	0.4945	0.8571	0.3297	0.7912	0.1648
last_10	0.35	9	57.100	18.000	39.000	18.000	47.000	7.000	2.8256	0.9942	0.3140	0.6802	0.3140	0.8198	0.1221
season	0.20	9	57.100	18.000	39.000	18.000	47.000	7.000	2.8256	0.9942	0.3140	0.6802	0.3140	0.8198	0.1221

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1280
predicted_ER	2.7380
predicted_ERA	3.9741
predicted_H	5.2270
predicted_HR	0.8810
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.3080
predicted_WHIP	1.1860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1280	2.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7380	2.8692	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9741	3.9741	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.2270	4.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8810	0.9406	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.3080	4.6529	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1860	1.1860	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.83
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	608379
playerID	608379
playerName	Michael Wacha
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	1.0000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.9000	1.2000	0.1000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	20	19.100	7.000	15.000	13.000	17.000	3.2586	1.4483	0.3621	0.7759	0.6724	0.8793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_ER	0.3520
predicted_ERA	3.1698
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.3662

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4810	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3520	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1698	3.1698	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8860	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9540	0.9811	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3662	1.3662	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.832	2.000	0.168	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.737	2.000	0.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	1.8000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.0000	1.4444	0.3333	1.0000	0.4444	0.8889	0.1111
season	0.20	19	17.200	6.000	15.000	8.000	14.000	1.000	3.0566	1.3019	0.3396	0.8491	0.4528	0.7924	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4640
predicted_ERA	4.1778
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9020
predicted_WHIP	1.4611

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4640	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1778	4.1778	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1000	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0538	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9020	0.9606	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4611	1.4611	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.942	1.200	-0.742	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.368	1.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.9375	0.3750	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.7500	0.2812	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	26.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.5000	0.3000	1.3000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_ER	0.2940
predicted_ERA	3.2505
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9230
predicted_WHIP	1.2264

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2890	0.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2940	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2505	3.2505	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7090	0.8794	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9230	1.5537	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2264	1.2264	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260520_CHW@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 SEA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHW 3 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHW 4 - 5 SEA	SEA	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHW 3 - 5 SEA	SEA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHW	7-3	0.700	5.70	5.30	4	1L	hot	weak
Home SEA	4-6	0.400	3.90	3.60	3	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHW	24-23	0.511	-12	-0.255	True
Home SEA	23-26	0.469	11	0.224	True
Signal	-	-	0.480	0.418	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	CHW @ SEA	1 - 6	SEA	5	blowout
2026-05-10	SEA @ CHW	1 - 2	CHW	1	close
2026-05-09	SEA @ CHW	1 - 6	CHW	5	blowout
2026-05-08	SEA @ CHW	12 - 8	SEA	4	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHW	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHW	32	8	4	0	3	1	10
Player finalized SEA	31	9	4	0	3	0	9
Player model fractional CHW	30.84	6.83	4.19	1.24	3.67	3.44	8.39
Player model fractional SEA	30.14	6.88	3.85	1.00	3.85	2.38	7.34
Simulation box CHW	36	9	3	0	3	4	10
Simulation box SEA	35	11	5	0	5	3	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHW	Starter	Sean Burke	6	0	10	4	2	4.05	1.20	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1	0	0	0	0	3.00	1.41	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	0	0	1	3.43	1.25	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	0	1	0	1	0	4.53	1.35	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	0	4	0	6	0	4.70	1.40	True
Home SEA	Starter	Emerson Hancock	6	2	7	3	4	3.68	1.19	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1	1	2	4	0	3.49	1.29	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	0	1	0	0	4.11	1.27	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	0	0	0	0	4.48	1.54	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Alex Hoppe	0	0	0	2	0	4.30	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHW

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.002	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	1.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.103	0.150
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	1.000	0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.250	0.098	0.250
predicted_SO	1.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	0.000	-0.114	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.257	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.022
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.539	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	0.033
predicted_H	0.961	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.505	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	-0.114

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.539	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.290	0.000
predicted_H	0.966	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.011
predicted_R	0.460	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.999	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.4286	0.5000	0.7857	0.4286	0.0714	0.2143	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.2414	0.3429	0.4138	0.2414	0.0345	0.1379	0.1724	0.1724
season	0.60	35	-	127.000	32.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	17.000	15.000	9.000	39.000	0.2520	0.2971	0.4016	0.2520	0.0236	0.1339	0.0709	0.3071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.4030
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3394
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.4658
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2270	0.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0290	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.4030	3.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2570	0.3400	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9460	0.9605	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1180	0.1192	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3394	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4940	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4980	0.5052	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4658	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	0.8280	1.0002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	-0.233	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.333	-0.283	-0.333
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.333	-0.326	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.186	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	-0.001
predicted_H	0.628	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.190	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.186	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.213	0.000
predicted_H	0.632	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.017
predicted_R	0.192	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.5882
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.1250	0.0625	0.4375
season	0.60	14	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	0.2326	0.2826	0.3256	0.2326	0.0233	0.0930	0.0698	0.3256

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4140
predicted_AVG	0.2178
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2659
predicted_R	0.2840
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3481
predicted_SO	1.1300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1060	0.0827	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.4140	3.1858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2178	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2120	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7440	0.6282	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1100	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2659	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2840	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3600	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3481	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1300	1.0435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	4.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.143	0.083
predicted_BB	0.538	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.180	0.250
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.250	-0.190	0.083
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.339	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	-0.061
predicted_H	0.611	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.877	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.339	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.477	0.001
predicted_H	0.614	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.178	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.004
predicted_R	0.455	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1714	0.2368	0.4000	0.1714	0.0571	0.1143	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.60	13	-	42.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	11.000	0.1905	0.3200	0.5238	0.1905	0.0952	0.1667	0.1667	0.2619

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2108
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.2904
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.4477
predicted_SO	0.9370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1760	0.1615	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.5490	3.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2108	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.3580	0.4767	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7480	0.6108	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2180	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2904	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4260	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5090	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4477	0.4479	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.9370	0.8770	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 34

All-history rows before 20260520: 34

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2524

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	1.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.029	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.029	3.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.333	-0.002	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.500	-0.069	-0.250
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.667	-0.109	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.113	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	0.026
predicted_H	0.682	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.113	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000
predicted_H	0.685	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.025
predicted_R	0.369	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.692	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.6250	0.1875	0.1250	0.3125	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.2188	0.1250	0.1875
season	0.60	34	-	103.000	26.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	11.000	10.000	24.000	0.2524	0.3186	0.3592	0.2524	0.0194	0.1068	0.0971	0.2330

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2450
predicted_AVG	0.2401
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3177
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.4411
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2030	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0290	3.2450	3.1129	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3600	0.3196	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7790	0.6818	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1480	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3177	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.4300	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5220	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4411	0.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.6710	0.6924	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2651

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.235	0.250
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.163	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.250	0.377	0.500
predicted_SO	1.023	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	2.000	-0.023	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.743	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.006
predicted_H	0.821	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.634	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.427	0.000
predicted_H	0.826	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.010
predicted_R	0.641	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.973	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2564	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1714	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	44	-	166.000	44.000	9.000	3.000	11.000	29.000	19.000	45.000	0.2651	0.3369	0.3735	0.2651	0.0181	0.0663	0.1145	0.2711

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7000
predicted_AVG	0.2340
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3098
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3357
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1650	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.7000	3.7431	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4180	0.4263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8660	0.8211	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5990	0.6344	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3710	0.3527	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3357	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	0.9040	0.9743	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-SS
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 27

All-history rows before 20260520: 27

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2660

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	4.000	1.519	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	-0.066	0.200
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.926	0.000	0.074	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	-0.164	0.200
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.000	-0.183	0.200
predicted_SO	0.519	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.519	0.000	1.481	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.519	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.060	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.522	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.011
predicted_H	0.938	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.060	0.000
predicted_AB	3.522	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.248	0.000
predicted_H	0.943	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.027
predicted_R	0.551	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.012
predicted_SO	0.561	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3590	0.3611	0.3056	0.0000	0.0278	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.60	27	-	94.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	0.2660	0.3636	0.3830	0.2660	0.0106	0.0957	0.0745	0.1489

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.5870
predicted_AVG	0.2694
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3429
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.3659
predicted_SO	0.6280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1400	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.0390	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	3.5870	3.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2694	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2300	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9660	0.9378	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3429	0.3430	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5270	0.5448	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2740	0.2654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3659	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5190	0.6280	0.5612	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-2B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.565	2.000	1.435	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	-0.038	0.200
predicted_BB	0.848	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.848	2.000	-0.848	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	0.152	1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.500	-0.182	-0.300
predicted_R	0.717	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.717	0.000	-0.717	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.561	0.000	-0.361	0.200
predicted_SO	1.435	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.435	2.000	0.565	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.565	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.848	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.717	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.559	-
predicted_SO	1.435	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.539	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.830	-0.018
predicted_H	0.906	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	1.350	-0.085

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.539	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.831	0.001
predicted_H	0.911	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.309	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.002
predicted_R	0.704	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.538	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.348	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.087

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.7647	0.3529	0.1177	0.1765	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	11.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.4688	0.2500	0.0625	0.0938	0.3125	0.3438
season	0.60	46	-	164.000	39.000	2.000	17.000	32.000	33.000	39.000	66.000	0.2378	0.3824	0.5610	0.2378	0.1037	0.1951	0.2378	0.4024

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5030
predicted_AVG	0.2608
predicted_BB	0.8040
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_OBP	0.3969
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.5593
predicted_SO	1.2280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0990	0.0661	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5650	3.5030	3.5394	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2608	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8480	0.8040	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9140	0.9058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3140	0.3117	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3969	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7170	0.6670	0.6964	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5790	0.5737	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5590	0.5593	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4350	1.2280	1.3496	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2262

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	-0.844	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.123	0.200
predicted_R	0.511	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.689	0.000	-0.689	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.505	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.000	-0.506	0.000
predicted_SO	1.311	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.311	3.000	0.689	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.505	-
predicted_SO	1.311	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.753	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.009
predicted_H	0.824	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.086	-
predicted_HR	0.290	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.529	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.505	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.340	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.369	0.000
predicted_H	0.828	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.288	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.017
predicted_R	0.535	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.607	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.494	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.339	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.5641	0.2308	0.1026	0.2051	0.0769	0.4103
season	0.60	45	-	168.000	38.000	8.000	13.000	31.000	23.000	17.000	59.000	0.2262	0.3229	0.5060	0.2262	0.0774	0.1845	0.1012	0.3512

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2267
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0860
predicted_HR	0.3040
predicted_OBP	0.3077
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.6290
predicted_SLG	0.5047
predicted_SO	1.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1350	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.7830	3.7535	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2267	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3560	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8580	0.8238	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0860	0.0860	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3040	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3077	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.5560	0.5295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6290	0.6001	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5050	0.5047	0.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3110	1.3820	1.3401	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Luisangel Acuña (682668) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.1560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.080	2.000	-0.080	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.667	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.511	0.667
predicted_BB	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.480	0.000	1.520	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.526	0.750
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	0.498	0.667
predicted_SO	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	0.520	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.103	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.019
predicted_H	0.427	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.282	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.146	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.138	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000
predicted_H	0.429	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.205	-0.032
predicted_R	0.285	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.148	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.177	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.560	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2500	0.1481	0.1111	0.0370	0.1852	0.2222
season	0.60	25	-	77.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.1558	0.2235	0.1688	0.1558	0.0390	0.0779	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1410
predicted_AVG	0.1606
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.5050
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2369
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.1740
predicted_SLG	0.2115
predicted_SO	0.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0750	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0800	3.1410	3.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1606	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2910	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.5050	0.4267	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2369	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.2850	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1740	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2115	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5200	0.6290	0.5607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.156

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	682668
playerID	682668
playerName	Luisangel Acuña
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Burke (680732) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.222	1.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	4.000	-2.444	-4.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.111	8.000	-1.111	-4.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.267	4.100	0.733	1.900
predicted_SO	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_SO	4.556	5.000	5.444	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	12.000	26.000	5.000	24.000	3.000	3.8571	1.1071	0.4286	0.9286	0.1786	0.8571	0.1071
last_10	0.35	9	48.100	22.000	46.000	11.000	41.000	5.000	4.0966	1.1793	0.4552	0.9517	0.2276	0.8483	0.1035
season	0.20	9	48.100	22.000	46.000	11.000	41.000	5.000	4.0966	1.1793	0.4552	0.9517	0.2276	0.8483	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4940
predicted_ER	2.5680
predicted_ERA	4.0523
predicted_H	5.3510
predicted_HR	0.6530
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0710
predicted_WHIP	1.2001

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.4940	1.7474	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.5680	1.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0523	4.0523	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.3510	4.6743	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6530	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.2000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.0710	5.5363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2001	1.2001	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	10
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.10
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	2
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	680732
playerID	680732
playerName	Sean Burke
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 12

All-history rows before 20260520: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	2.9950
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0750
predicted_WHIP	1.4143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4750	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3330	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9950	2.9950	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9390	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0750	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4143	1.4143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.3810
predicted_ERA	3.4258
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0240
predicted_WHIP	1.2501

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3430	0.7948	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3810	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4258	3.4258	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9070	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0240	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2501	1.2501	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-2.100	-2.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_ER	0.2530
predicted_ERA	4.5328
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4570
predicted_WHIP	1.3512

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1920	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2530	0.8033	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5328	4.5328	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4870	0.8649	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4570	1.5938	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3512	1.3512	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	4.500	4.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	-0.550	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_ER	0.1830
predicted_ERA	4.7034
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.4020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1390	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.1830	3.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7034	4.7034	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	0.3520	4.5953	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3170	1.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4020	1.4020	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	6
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Home Team: SEA

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 50

All-history rows before 20260520: 50

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	1.500	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.160	0.400
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	1.000	-0.320	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.840	0.000	1.160	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.060	0.000	-0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.333	0.084	0.067
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.051	0.400
predicted_SO	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.007
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.531	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.012
predicted_H	0.733	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.001
predicted_H	0.727	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.008
predicted_R	0.343	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.471	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.871	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 50

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.1389	0.2051	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.1389	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.60	50	-	175.000	42.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	26.000	20.000	16.000	45.000	0.2400	0.3163	0.3486	0.2400	0.0171	0.1486	0.0914	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.2103
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2772
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3063
predicted_SO	0.8260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1770	0.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0120	0.0167	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5750	3.5308	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2103	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.2910	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7520	0.7332	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2750	0.3486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4910	0.4786	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3063	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8260	0.8696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	50
Season rows before report date	50
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	50
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Colt Emerson (806068) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 3

All-history rows before 20260520: 3

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.125	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.333	-0.050	-0.083
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.863	0.196
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.007
predicted_H	0.528	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.643	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.001
predicted_H	0.523	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.038
predicted_R	0.633	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.453	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.984	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.20	3	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750
season	0.60	3	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750	0.1250	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.2145
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3040
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.4222
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1260	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	3.5170	2.8630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2145	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3050	0.3265	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.7540	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1950	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5650	0.6435	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.6600	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4222	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9818	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	806068
playerID	806068
playerName	Colt Emerson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2768

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	2.000	-0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	0.057	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	0.159	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.603	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.500	-0.238	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.171	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	1.000	-0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.603	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.208	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.008
predicted_H	0.892	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.271	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.714	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.603	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.096	-0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.192	-0.000
predicted_H	0.884	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.272	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.043
predicted_R	0.504	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.703	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.577	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.098	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4375	0.8000	0.4000	0.1333	0.2667	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	0.3214	0.4062	0.7500	0.3214	0.1429	0.3929	0.0714	0.3214
season	0.60	35	-	112.000	31.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	25.000	17.000	7.000	41.000	0.2768	0.3415	0.5714	0.2768	0.0804	0.2232	0.0625	0.3661

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.2210
predicted_AVG	0.2974
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_OBP	0.3602
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.7670
predicted_SLG	0.6025
predicted_SO	0.9800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0860	0.1030	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0160	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.2210	3.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2974	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1810	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9580	0.8924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2880	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3602	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5520	0.5119	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7670	0.7142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6030	0.6025	0.6028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	0.9800	1.0960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2584

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.781	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.781	3.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.408	0.667
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	0.000	1.281	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.417	0.500
predicted_R	0.406	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.781	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.825	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.036
predicted_H	0.604	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.825	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.001
predicted_H	0.599	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.029
predicted_R	0.388	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.666	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0833
last_10	0.20	10	-	24.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2083	0.3333	0.3333	0.2083	0.0417	0.2500	0.2083	0.2500
season	0.60	32	-	89.000	23.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	13.000	10.000	22.000	0.2584	0.3333	0.4719	0.2584	0.0449	0.1910	0.1124	0.2472

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3269
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.3861
predicted_SO	0.6280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1370	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7810	2.8950	2.8247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.4050	0.3477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6750	0.6041	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1000	0.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3269	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.3750	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4510	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3861	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.6280	0.6650	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jhonny Pereda (640902) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 5

All-history rows before 20260520: 5

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.135	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.044	0.044
predicted_H	0.594	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.215	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.135	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.044	-0.000
predicted_H	0.589	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.101	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.087
predicted_R	0.410	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.212	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.076
predicted_SO	0.982	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.3333
season	0.60	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5220
predicted_AVG	0.2289
predicted_BB	0.1700
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3280
predicted_SO	0.9230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1100	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5220	3.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2289	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1700	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.8060	0.5941	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0740	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4640	0.4166	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2870	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9230	0.9800	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	640902
playerID	640902
playerName	Jhonny Pereda
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 50

All-history rows before 20260520: 50

System season_avg: 0.2510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2513

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.180	0.000	0.820	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.980	4.000	0.020	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.249	0.250
predicted_BB	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.340	0.000	0.660	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.283	0.350
predicted_R	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	1.000	-0.520	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.420	0.000	-0.420	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.250	0.333	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.340	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.967	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.001
predicted_H	0.858	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.546	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.967	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.001
predicted_H	0.850	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.010
predicted_R	0.537	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.357	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.971	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 50

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.1707	0.2273	0.3659	0.1707	0.0488	0.0732	0.0732	0.2683
season	0.60	50	-	199.000	50.000	9.000	8.000	21.000	26.000	17.000	50.000	0.2513	0.3165	0.4171	0.2513	0.0402	0.1055	0.0854	0.2513

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9480
predicted_AVG	0.2199
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3878
predicted_SO	0.9260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1800	0.1510	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.9480	3.9667	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2199	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3400	0.3370	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8680	0.8575	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.5820	0.5457	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3670	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3878	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9260	0.9693	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	50
Season rows before report date	50
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	50
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.251

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Patrick Wisdom (621550) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	0.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.134	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.626	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.000
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.140	0.140

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.134	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.000
predicted_H	0.620	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.068
predicted_R	0.080	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.394	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.069
predicted_SO	0.140	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total RBI	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.60	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2221
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2776
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.5370
predicted_SLG	0.3603
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1620	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2221	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2510	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.8280	0.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1100	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2776	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4440	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5370	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3603	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7600	0.1399	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	621550
playerID	621550
playerName	Patrick Wisdom
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 50

All-history rows before 20260520: 50

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.260	0.000	-0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.080	0.000	-1.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.250	-0.386	-0.250
predicted_R	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.660	0.000	0.340	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.620	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.660	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.017
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.596	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.028
predicted_H	1.067	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.166	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.620	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.001
predicted_H	1.057	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.166	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.023
predicted_R	0.610	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.464	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.002	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 50

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3500	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.3889	0.4651	0.5833	0.3889	0.0278	0.1944	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.60	50	-	180.000	54.000	13.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	33.000	20.000	50.000	0.3000	0.3857	0.4500	0.3000	0.0222	0.1056	0.1111	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.3076
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	1.1040
predicted_HBP	0.1660
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3833
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.4599
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2600	0.3010	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0120	0.0167	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5900	3.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3076	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3320	0.3719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1040	1.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1660	0.1660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0740	0.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3833	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6600	0.5630	0.6199	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4880	0.4716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4599	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0010	1.0004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	50
Season rows before report date	50
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	50
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2554

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.915	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.915	3.000	0.085	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.245	0.500
predicted_BB	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.383	1.000	-0.383	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.176	0.250
predicted_R	0.319	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.319	0.000	0.681	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.468	0.000	0.532	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_SO	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.660	1.000	-0.660	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.915	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.319	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.660	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.878	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	0.027
predicted_H	1.042	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.624	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.001
predicted_H	1.033	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.014
predicted_R	0.343	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.403	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.625	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.915

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.3421	0.2895	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.1316
season	0.60	47	-	184.000	47.000	5.000	5.000	22.000	15.000	18.000	31.000	0.2554	0.3235	0.3641	0.2554	0.0272	0.1196	0.0978	0.1685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.2735
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3505
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3590
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1060	0.1130	0.1089	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9150	3.8250	3.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2735	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.4490	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0460	1.0425	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0700	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3505	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3190	0.3910	0.3487	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4100	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3590	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6600	0.5720	0.6237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Emerson Hancock (676106) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.111	1.000	2.889	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.889	5.000	-1.889	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.911	6.000	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	6.222	6.000	0.778	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	12.000	30.000	6.000	31.000	6.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000	1.0333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	9	53.200	18.000	44.000	10.000	56.000	8.000	3.0186	1.0062	0.3354	0.8199	0.1863	1.0435	0.1491
season	0.20	9	53.200	18.000	44.000	10.000	56.000	8.000	3.0186	1.0062	0.3354	0.8199	0.1863	1.0435	0.1491

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5610
predicted_ER	2.4560
predicted_ERA	3.6846
predicted_H	5.6040
predicted_HR	0.9760
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.0430
predicted_WHIP	1.1942

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.5610	2.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4560	2.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6846	3.6846	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.6040	4.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9760	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.0430	5.5206	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1942	1.1942	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	7
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	676106
playerID	676106
playerName	Emerson Hancock
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.900	2.000	3.100	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.875	0.200	0.125	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.600	2.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	1.9286	1.2857	0.2143	1.0714	0.2143	1.9286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	17.000	1.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	1.7586	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.200	10.000	18.000	7.000	32.000	3.000	4.8214	1.3393	0.5357	0.9643	0.3750	1.7143	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.3880
predicted_ERA	3.4919
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3250
predicted_WHIP	1.2866

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3880	0.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4919	3.4919	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.9660	2.7643	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3250	1.7251	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2866	1.2866	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.082	0.100	-0.082	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	0.9643	0.4286	0.7500	0.2143	0.9643	0.1071
season	0.20	17	19.100	6.000	15.000	5.000	17.000	3.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.7759	0.2586	0.8793	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.4270
predicted_ERA	4.1061
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8490
predicted_WHIP	1.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4270	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1061	4.1061	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8490	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8490	0.9380	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2750	1.2750	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.870	2.000	-0.870	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.730	0.200	0.270	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	6.2308	2.0769	0.6923	1.3846	0.6923	1.1539	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	4.1538	1.7308	0.4615	1.3846	0.3462	0.9231	0.2308
season	0.20	23	21.000	6.000	20.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	2.5714	1.3333	0.2857	0.9524	0.3810	0.8571	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.4980
predicted_ERA	4.4809
predicted_H	1.1030
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9810
predicted_WHIP	1.5400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4380	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4980	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4809	4.4809	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1030	0.4627	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2110	0.0885	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9810	0.4116	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5400	1.5400	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.375	2.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.200	-1.050	-1.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786
season	0.20	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	4.2988
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5590
predicted_WHIP	1.2982

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1790	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2988	4.2988	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6050	1.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5590	1.5077	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2982	1.2982	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260520_CIN@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 4 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 4 PHI", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "CIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 6 - 5 PHI", "winner": "CIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 5 - 4 PHI	CIN	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 6 - 5 PHI	CIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	5-5	0.500	5.60	4.90	7	1W	hot	average
Home PHI	8-2	0.800	5	2.50	25	1L	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	25-24	0.510	-33	-0.673	True
Home PHI	25-24	0.510	-19	-0.388	True
Signal	-	-	0.286	0.286	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	CIN @ PHI	4 - 1	CIN	3	blowout
2026-05-18	CIN @ PHI	4 - 5	PHI	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target PHI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	33	8	5	0	4	4	9
Player finalized PHI	33	8	3	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional CIN	31.35	7.41	4.30	1.17	3.90	4.04	8.11
Player model fractional PHI	32.99	7.28	3.89	0.95	3.73	2.27	8.10
Simulation box CIN	37	10	6	0	6	2	6
Simulation box PHI	36	10	5	0	5	3	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Andrew Abbott	4.20	2	9	5	1	3.65	1.35	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.20	3	2	4	1	4.33	1.20	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1	0	0	1	0	4.29	1.35	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1.20	0	0	0	1	4.96	1.27	True
Home PHI	Starter	Aaron Nola	4.20	4	2	9	0	6.03	1.57	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1	0	1	0	0	4.12	1.36	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1	0	0	0	0	3.02	1.17	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	0.20	1	1	1	0	4.03	1.43	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	0.20	0	0	0	1	3.33	1.19	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Tanner Banks	0.20	1	1	0	1	5.62	1.57	True
Home PHI	Reliever	Chase Shugart	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.22	1.09	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	1.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.184	0.400
predicted_BB	0.511	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.822	0.000	1.178	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.084	0.400
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	1.000	1.556	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.443	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.511	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.786	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	-0.021
predicted_H	0.837	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.991	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.487	-0.003
predicted_H	0.824	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.141	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.007
predicted_R	0.436	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.588	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.997	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.5000	0.2500	0.0556	0.2778	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	45	-	171.000	37.000	9.000	5.000	20.000	20.000	23.000	45.000	0.2164	0.3163	0.3567	0.2164	0.0292	0.1170	0.1345	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7650
predicted_AVG	0.2249
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3139
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.6110
predicted_SLG	0.3980
predicted_SO	0.9790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2160	0.2066	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7650	3.7856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2249	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5110	0.4600	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8470	0.8370	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3139	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4540	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6110	0.6045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3980	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9790	0.9914	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 26

All-history rows before 20260520: 26

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	4.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.067	0.083
predicted_BB	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.153	0.250
predicted_R	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	1.000	0.577	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.250	-0.200	0.083
predicted_SO	0.885	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.885	1.000	-0.885	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.885	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.508	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.014
predicted_H	0.797	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.421	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.908	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.508	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.002
predicted_H	0.784	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.019
predicted_R	0.409	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.913	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.60	26	-	90.000	24.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.2667	0.3465	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.1778	0.1222	0.2556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2478
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.4317
predicted_SO	0.9450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1960	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.5820	3.5080	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2478	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.3860	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8880	0.7967	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1520	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.4170	0.4207	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4590	0.4103	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4317	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8850	0.9450	0.9080	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.333	-0.292	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.250	-0.202	-0.050
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.653	0.667	-0.653	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.543	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.014
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.495	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.610	-0.057
predicted_H	0.921	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.557	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.773	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.543	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.495	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.607	-0.003
predicted_H	0.907	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.184	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.015
predicted_R	0.542	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.752	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.642	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.3684	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.3056	0.4091	0.6389	0.3056	0.0556	0.3611	0.1944	0.1667
season	0.60	21	-	72.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	20.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	0.2917	0.4023	0.6528	0.2917	0.0833	0.2778	0.1944	0.1806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3220
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.2695
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3540
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.8120
predicted_SLG	0.5427
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3220	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0410	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6050	3.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2695	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.5140	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9720	0.9208	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1940	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3540	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5350	0.5575	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8120	0.7733	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5430	0.5427	0.5429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.6720	0.6389	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.755	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.755	3.000	0.245	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.551	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.551	1.000	-0.551	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	1.000	-0.939	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.500	-0.343	-0.500
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.653	0.000	-0.653	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.333	-0.473	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.796	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.796	0.000	-0.796	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.755	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.551	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	0.796	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.713	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.587	0.036
predicted_H	0.950	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.713	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.584	-0.003
predicted_H	0.935	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.016
predicted_R	0.541	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.482	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.762	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	0.3125	0.4762	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.1250	0.3125	0.0625
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2703	0.3864	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.0541	0.1892	0.2432
season	0.60	49	-	184.000	46.000	8.000	11.000	32.000	28.000	27.000	39.000	0.2500	0.3427	0.4728	0.2500	0.0598	0.1739	0.1467	0.2120

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6540
predicted_AVG	0.2638
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.3691
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.4563
predicted_SO	0.7040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1400	0.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7550	3.6540	3.7132	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5510	0.6370	0.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9640	0.9499	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1870	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3691	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5350	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5050	0.4962	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4563	0.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7960	0.7040	0.7579	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

P.J. Higgins (664731) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 5

All-history rows before 20260520: 5

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.724	0.224
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	0.007
predicted_H	0.457	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.049	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.077	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	0.986	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.256	-0.001
predicted_H	0.450	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.052
predicted_R	0.075	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.228	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.109
predicted_SO	0.991	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	4	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.60	4	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4290
predicted_AVG	0.2316
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2895
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3402
predicted_SO	0.9410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1170	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.4290	2.7240	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2316	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2790	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.7940	0.4570	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0790	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2895	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3210	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.4040	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3402	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9410	0.9858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260422_CIN@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664731
playerID	664731
playerName	P.J. Higgins
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2651

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.609	4.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.235	0.250
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	1.043	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.250	0.165	0.250
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	0.054	0.250
predicted_SO	0.804	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.804	0.000	0.196	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.609	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.804	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.682	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.012
predicted_H	1.005	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	-0.076

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.002
predicted_H	0.989	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.022
predicted_R	0.585	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.448	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.732	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	0.3415	0.3864	0.4878	0.3415	0.0244	0.1463	0.0732	0.0488
season	0.60	46	-	166.000	44.000	9.000	7.000	18.000	25.000	15.000	37.000	0.2651	0.3351	0.4458	0.2651	0.0422	0.1084	0.0904	0.2229

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.2900
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3477
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.4468
predicted_SO	0.6190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.2440	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6090	3.7870	3.6818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2900	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2960	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0980	1.0047	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1150	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3477	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.6850	0.6011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5040	0.4603	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4468	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8040	0.6190	0.7283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	2.739	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.739	3.000	1.261	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	0.357	0.500
predicted_BB	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.391	0.000	1.609	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.230	0.500
predicted_R	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.087	0.000	1.913	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.238	0.000	0.262	0.500
predicted_SO	1.043	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	2.000	-1.043	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	2.739	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.435	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.260	-
predicted_SO	1.043	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	0.013
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.007
predicted_AB	2.863	0.124
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.003
predicted_H	0.391	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.075	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.281	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.138	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	2.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.002
predicted_H	0.385	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.028
predicted_R	0.274	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.134	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.237	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.058	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.1724	0.3333	0.3103	0.1724	0.0345	0.0345	0.2069	0.4138
season	0.60	23	-	63.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	24.000	0.1429	0.2703	0.2381	0.1429	0.0159	0.0318	0.1587	0.3810

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.0770
predicted_AVG	0.1560
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.4800
predicted_HBP	0.0750
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2760
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.1680
predicted_SLG	0.2601
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0780	0.0558	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7390	3.0770	2.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1560	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4350	0.4270	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4800	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0750	0.0750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3170	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1680	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2600	0.2601	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0430	1.0680	1.0521	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2974

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.245	0.000	-0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	1.000	-0.020	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.980	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.980	3.000	1.020	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.333	-0.097	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.408	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.408	1.000	-0.408	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.082	0.000	-0.082	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.184	1.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.500	-0.164	-0.300
predicted_R	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.653	1.000	0.347	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.538	1.000	-0.338	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.224	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.224	2.000	-0.224	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.408	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.735	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.559	-
predicted_SO	1.224	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.020
predicted_3B	0.040	0.019
predicted_AB	3.945	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	0.001
predicted_H	1.178	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.724	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	1.195	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.945	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.002
predicted_H	1.160	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.021
predicted_R	0.704	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.558	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.519	-0.040
predicted_SO	1.201	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.6667	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	11.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.6250	0.4000	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.60	49	-	195.000	58.000	12.000	1.000	11.000	32.000	36.000	20.000	60.000	0.2974	0.3641	0.5385	0.2974	0.0564	0.1641	0.1026	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2930
predicted_3B	0.0670
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.3055
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	1.1900
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3808
predicted_R	0.7090
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.5589
predicted_SO	1.1540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2450	0.2930	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0670	0.0395	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.8950	3.9448	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3055	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4080	0.4110	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.1900	1.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1860	0.1825	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3808	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7350	0.7090	0.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5790	0.5737	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5590	0.5589	0.5590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2240	1.1540	1.1950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 5

All-history rows before 20260520: 5

System season_avg: 0.3890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.389	0.500	-0.139	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.400	2.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.476	0.500	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.611	0.500	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.633	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.549	-0.051
predicted_H	0.993	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.752	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.485	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.546	-0.003
predicted_H	0.978	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.011
predicted_R	0.731	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.308	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.813	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
season	0.60	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7180
predicted_AVG	0.3038
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3757
predicted_R	0.6270
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.4848
predicted_SO	0.8310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1900	0.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7180	3.6328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4170	0.5491	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1300	0.9928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1560	0.1372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3757	0.3759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6270	0.7519	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3590	0.3164	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4848	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8310	0.8086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.389

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	694362
playerID	694362
playerName	Blake Dunn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Andrew Abbott (671096) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.300	3.000	-1.300	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.400	1.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.400	4.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.970	5.000	-0.770	-0.800
predicted_SO	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_SO	3.500	2.000	5.500	7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	8.000	22.000	12.000	20.000	4.000	2.7000	1.2750	0.3000	0.8250	0.4500	0.7500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	51.100	24.000	54.000	23.000	35.000	6.000	4.2078	1.5000	0.4675	1.0519	0.4481	0.6818	0.1169
season	0.20	10	51.100	24.000	54.000	23.000	35.000	6.000	4.2078	1.5000	0.4675	1.0519	0.4481	0.6818	0.1169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2280
predicted_ER	2.1250
predicted_ERA	3.6526
predicted_H	4.8660
predicted_HR	0.7010
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.3548

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.2280	1.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1250	2.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6526	3.6526	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.8660	4.9318	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7010	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	9.0000	4.1770	6.5442	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3548	1.3548	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	9
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.21
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671096
playerID	671096
playerName	Andrew Abbott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.696	0.000	0.304	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.435	2.000	2.565	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.696	2.000	3.304	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.200	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.087	0.000	0.913	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.3529	0.8824	0.7059	0.7059	0.1765	1.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.6177	0.6177	0.9706	0.1765
season	0.20	22	23.100	6.000	15.000	13.000	25.000	2.000	2.3143	1.2000	0.2571	0.6429	0.5571	1.0714	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_ER	0.4810
predicted_ERA	4.3322
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9900
predicted_WHIP	1.1983

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3920	0.7382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4810	1.9153	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3322	4.3322	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.8060	2.6247	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9900	1.5651	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1983	1.1983	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	10
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.709	1.000	0.291	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.864	2.000	-0.864	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	5.0000	1.4444	0.5556	0.7778	0.6667	0.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	22	19.100	8.000	18.000	8.000	19.000	3.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	0.9828	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	4.2930
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9230
predicted_WHIP	1.3523

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4860	0.1997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4770	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2930	4.2930	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8660	0.9449	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1660	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9230	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3523	1.3523	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.329	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	2.000	-0.952	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	6.2308	0.9231	0.6923	0.9231	0.0000	1.1539	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.8889	0.5556
season	0.20	20	19.000	7.000	14.000	9.000	20.000	5.000	3.3158	1.2105	0.3684	0.7368	0.4737	1.0526	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.5510
predicted_ERA	4.9599
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9910
predicted_WHIP	1.2679

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3060	0.7161	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5510	0.2254	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9599	4.9599	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9610	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3140	0.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9910	0.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2679	1.2679	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: PHI

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2071

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	3.000	-0.674	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.126	0.333
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.761	0.000	0.239	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.121	0.400
predicted_R	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.326	0.000	0.674	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.283	0.000	0.717	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.026	0.333
predicted_SO	1.174	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.174	2.000	-0.174	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.326	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	1.174	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.642	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.016
predicted_H	0.593	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.160	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.331	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.642	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	0.000
predicted_H	0.603	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.160	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.023
predicted_R	0.341	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.007
predicted_SO	1.222	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.0625	0.2000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	16.000	0.0833	0.1707	0.1111	0.0833	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.4444
season	0.60	46	-	169.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	54.000	0.2071	0.2789	0.3077	0.2071	0.0177	0.0769	0.0828	0.3195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.1658
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.5960
predicted_HBP	0.1600
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2502
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2435
predicted_SO	1.2920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1070	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.5970	3.6424	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1658	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.2640	0.2876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.5960	0.5925	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1600	0.1600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0490	0.0496	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3260	0.3380	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2610	0.2604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2435	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1740	1.2920	1.2224	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	1
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Otto Kemp (805249) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

System season_avg: 0.0530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0526

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	1.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.209	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.292	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.475	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.000
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	1.264	-0.069

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.484	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.158	-0.051
predicted_R	0.081	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.208	-0.057
predicted_SO	1.264	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	6	-	19.000	1.000	8.000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
season	0.60	6	-	19.000	1.000	8.000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.1720
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_H	0.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2093
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.2650
predicted_SO	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1060	0.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.6300	3.2924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1720	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1650	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.6240	0.4753	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0720	0.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2910	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2780	0.2066	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.0800	1.2645	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.053

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	805249
playerID	805249
playerName	Otto Kemp
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2362

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	0.809	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.234	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.234	4.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.014	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.277	0.000	0.723	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	1.000	-0.106	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.118	0.150
predicted_R	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.660	1.000	0.340	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.340	1.000	-0.340	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	1.000	0.143	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.979	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.979	1.000	1.021	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.234	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.277	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.660	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.979	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.265	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.017
predicted_H	1.018	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.698	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	1.003	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.001
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000
predicted_H	1.036	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.006
predicted_R	0.718	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.004
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.234

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.1304	0.0435	0.2609
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	0.2391	0.2500	0.3478	0.2391	0.0217	0.0870	0.0217	0.2609
season	0.60	47	-	199.000	47.000	9.000	5.000	16.000	31.000	13.000	46.000	0.2362	0.2817	0.3568	0.2362	0.0251	0.0804	0.0653	0.2312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.3090
predicted_AVG	0.2420
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.2808
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3814
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.2260	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2340	4.3090	4.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2420	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2770	0.2370	0.2604	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0430	1.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1230	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6600	0.7510	0.6977	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4130	0.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3814	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9790	1.0370	1.0030	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2712

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	4.000	1.312	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.329	0.600
predicted_BB	0.562	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.234	0.600
predicted_R	0.604	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.604	0.000	0.396	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.527	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.537	0.000	0.263	0.800
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	0.229	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.604	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.527	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.717	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	-0.009
predicted_H	0.993	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.257	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.612	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.696	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.527	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.553	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.002
predicted_R	0.630	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.716	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.008
predicted_SO	0.849	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.3158	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3556	0.4872	0.2564	0.0769	0.1795	0.1538	0.3077
season	0.60	48	-	177.000	48.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	30.000	29.000	27.000	37.000	0.2712	0.3659	0.5367	0.2712	0.0678	0.1695	0.1525	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7590
predicted_AVG	0.2730
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2680
predicted_OBP	0.3639
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.7180
predicted_SLG	0.5267
predicted_SO	0.9620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1230	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.7590	3.7173	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.5400	0.5529	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0260	0.9931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2680	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3639	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6040	0.6240	0.6123	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7180	0.6957	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5270	0.5267	0.5269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.9620	0.8498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3228

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	3.000	-0.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.244	0.000	-1.244	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.095	0.250
predicted_R	0.585	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	3.000	-0.829	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.146	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.585	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.013
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.871	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.149	0.003
predicted_H	1.006	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.892	0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.149	0.000
predicted_H	1.023	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.016
predicted_R	0.593	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.892	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2857	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3171	0.3421	0.2895	0.0000	0.0790	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	51.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	24.000	6.000	34.000	0.3228	0.3452	0.4620	0.3228	0.0253	0.1392	0.0380	0.2152

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2828
predicted_BB	0.1540
predicted_H	1.1020
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3081
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.4018
predicted_SO	0.9850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2260	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.8950	3.8706	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2828	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1460	0.1540	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1020	1.0057	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3081	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5850	0.5630	0.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4340	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4018	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.9850	0.8923	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 29

All-history rows before 20260520: 29

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.448	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.448	2.000	1.552	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	2.000	-0.276	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	0.000	-0.759	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_R	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.621	0.000	1.379	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.448	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.621	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.459	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.301	0.025
predicted_H	0.659	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.221	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.301	0.000
predicted_H	0.671	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.035
predicted_R	0.369	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.650	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1333	0.3158	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0278	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.60	29	-	100.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	18.000	0.2200	0.2946	0.2900	0.2200	0.0100	0.0800	0.0800	0.1800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4760
predicted_AVG	0.2031
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2932
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.2727
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.1160	0.1295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4480	3.4760	3.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2031	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.3410	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7060	0.6595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2932	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3800	0.3586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2390	0.2213	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6210	0.6980	0.6509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2029

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.297	0.500
predicted_BB	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.000	0.267	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	0.210	0.500
predicted_SO	0.905	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.905	2.000	-0.905	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.095	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	0.905	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.316	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.120	0.025
predicted_H	0.581	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.320	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.316	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.120	0.000
predicted_H	0.591	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.207	-0.037
predicted_R	0.329	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.956	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.0714	0.1765	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.5714
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.1818	0.2222	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.1515	0.0303	0.3333
season	0.60	21	-	69.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	19.000	0.2029	0.2329	0.2899	0.2029	0.0145	0.1304	0.0290	0.2754

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3690
predicted_AVG	0.1933
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2445
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.2746
predicted_SO	1.0470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1090	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.3690	3.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1933	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0950	0.1630	0.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6510	0.5805	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2445	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3790	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4160	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2746	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9050	1.0470	0.9568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	3.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.029	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	1.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.333	-0.022	-0.083
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.333	-0.157	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.237	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.016
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.687	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	0.019
predicted_H	0.791	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.626	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.704	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.687	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000
predicted_H	0.804	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.026
predicted_R	0.442	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.644	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.704	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3333	0.6667	0.2778	0.1111	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2703	0.3171	0.5405	0.2703	0.0541	0.2432	0.0811	0.1892
season	0.60	38	-	140.000	31.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	15.000	9.000	26.000	0.2214	0.2715	0.4071	0.2214	0.0357	0.1500	0.0643	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.6920
predicted_AVG	0.2428
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.2950
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.7090
predicted_SLG	0.4709
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.2230	0.1997	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0290	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.6920	3.6872	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2428	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2370	0.2830	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8960	0.7907	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1880	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2950	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.4810	0.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.7090	0.6258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4709	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7340	0.7041	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	1.000	0.841	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	3.000	0.295	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.279	0.167
predicted_BB	0.295	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	1.000	0.705	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	1.182	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	0.318	0.100
predicted_R	0.318	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.477	0.000	2.523	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.667	0.413	0.083
predicted_SO	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	1.000	0.432	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.738	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.301	0.007
predicted_H	1.045	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.562	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.302	0.000
predicted_H	1.063	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.008
predicted_R	0.385	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.457	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.562	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.7000	0.4000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	0.4211	0.4634	0.7632	0.4210	0.0790	0.1579	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	36.000	7.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	13.000	25.000	0.2209	0.2818	0.3374	0.2209	0.0245	0.1288	0.0798	0.1534

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2893
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	1.0950
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3459
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.4810
predicted_SO	0.5530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.2750	0.2064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.7850	3.7377	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2893	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.3110	0.3015	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0950	1.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1490	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3459	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.4550	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4530	0.4335	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4810	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.5530	0.5619	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Aaron Nola (605400) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.333	6.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_H	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_H	5.889	6.000	3.111	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.867	3.200	-0.667	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	5.111	2.000	-3.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	20.000	30.000	12.000	22.000	6.000	7.7143	1.8000	0.8571	1.2857	0.5143	0.9429	0.2571
last_10	0.35	9	45.200	30.000	53.000	18.000	46.000	9.000	5.9124	1.5547	0.6569	1.1606	0.3942	1.0073	0.1971
season	0.20	9	45.200	30.000	53.000	18.000	46.000	9.000	5.9124	1.5547	0.6569	1.1606	0.3942	1.0073	0.1971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1230
predicted_ER	3.2610
predicted_ERA	6.0287
predicted_H	5.5070
predicted_HR	0.9590
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6850
predicted_WHIP	1.5672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1230	1.0596	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	3.2610	3.6311	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0287	6.0287	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	5.5070	7.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9590	0.4787	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.6850	3.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5672	1.5672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	9
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	5.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	47
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	605400
playerID	605400
playerName	Aaron Nola
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.925	1.000	0.075	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.2000	0.4000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	3.000	15.000	2.000	4.3548	1.2581	0.4839	0.9677	0.2903	1.4516	0.1935
season	0.20	20	19.200	9.000	18.000	6.000	24.000	3.000	4.1186	1.2203	0.4576	0.9153	0.3051	1.2203	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_ER	0.4580
predicted_ERA	4.1199
predicted_H	0.9930
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2200
predicted_WHIP	1.3556

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3630	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4580	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1199	4.1199	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9930	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2200	1.0908	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3556	1.3556	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.129	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	0.9000	0.1000	0.4000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	13	12.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	21.000	1.4211	1.0263	0.1579	0.6316	0.3947	1.6579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.3360
predicted_ERA	3.0215
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2640
predicted_WHIP	1.1713

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3970	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3360	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0215	3.0215	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7750	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2640	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1713	1.1713	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.091	2.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.577	0.200	-0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.045	0.000	-0.045	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	11.000	3.000	12.000	2.1600	1.6800	0.2400	1.3200	0.3600	1.4400
season	0.20	22	16.200	10.000	24.000	8.000	23.000	5.4000	1.9200	0.6000	1.4400	0.4800	1.3800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	4.0262
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8520
predicted_WHIP	1.4280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3250	0.7329	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0262	4.0262	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7780	0.9122	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8520	0.9414	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4280	1.4280	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.779	0.100	-0.579	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.4545	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.1739	0.7826	0.1304	0.6522	0.1304	0.7826	0.1304
season	0.20	19	16.200	4.000	12.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	2.1600	1.1400	0.2400	0.7200	0.4200	0.7200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	3.3266
predicted_H	0.5960
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6150
predicted_WHIP	1.1883

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2270	0.6942	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.1013	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3266	3.3266	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5960	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6150	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1883	1.1883	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tanner Banks (621383) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.737	2.000	0.263	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.526	2.000	-1.526	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.884	0.100	-0.684	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	0.000	-0.158	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	5.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	8.4375	1.6875	0.9375	1.3125	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	16.000	6.000	12.000	0.000	7.2000	2.2000	0.8000	1.6000	0.6000	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.200	12.000	26.000	10.000	22.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.3929	0.5357	1.1786	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.5040
predicted_ERA	5.6152
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8420
predicted_WHIP	1.5718

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3430	0.7324	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5040	0.7980	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6152	5.6152	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9280	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8420	0.9357	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5718	1.5718	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621383
playerID	621383
playerName	Tanner Banks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Chase Shugart (663767) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.129	2.000	-1.029	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.286	3.000	-0.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	2.0769	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	1.0385	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	1.5000	0.7500	0.1667	0.5833	0.1667	1.0000	0.0833
season	0.20	14	17.200	3.000	12.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	1.5283	0.9057	0.1698	0.6793	0.2264	1.0189	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	3.2192
predicted_H	0.6280
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7920
predicted_WHIP	1.0858

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2480	0.0996	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2890	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2192	3.2192	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6280	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7920	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0858	1.0858	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	1

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663767
playerID	663767
playerName	Chase Shugart
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260520_CLE@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.553085, "home_win_probability": 0.44691499999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.553085, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "confidence": 0.553085, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CLE 5 - 4 DET	CLE	0.553	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CLE 5 - 4 DET	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CLE	7-3	0.700	5.40	3.20	22	4W	hot	strong
Home DET	2-8	0.200	2.50	5	-25	4L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CLE	28-22	0.560	20	0.400	True
Home DET	20-29	0.408	-20	-0.408	True
Signal	-	-	-0.808	-1.036	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	CLE @ DET	4 - 3	CLE	1	close
2026-05-18	CLE @ DET	8 - 2	CLE	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CLE	31	9	6	0	5	4	8
Player finalized DET	32	9	2	0	0	2	10
Player model fractional CLE	31.01	7.01	4.84	1.17	4.85	4.58	6.73
Player model fractional DET	31.79	6.83	3.06	0.66	2.73	2.90	8.50
Simulation box CLE	38	8	5	3	5	4	10
Simulation box DET	41	11	4	1	4	0	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CLE	Starter	Tanner Bibee	5.10	3	1	8	0	3.97	1.28	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1.10	0	0	2	0	2.99	1.14	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	1	0	2	0	0	2.49	1.13	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	1.10	0	2	0	0	4.53	1.33	True
Away CLE	Reliever	Codi Heuer	1	1	2	1	0	4.26	1.37	-
Home DET	Starter	Framber Valdez	5.10	3	7	7	0	5.04	1.46	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	0	1	0	1	4.22	1.41	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.20	1.08	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1	0	1	0	3	2.92	1.35	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	0.20	2	1	1	0	5.16	1.43	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CLE

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

System season_avg: 0.1400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0909

Diff (system - data): 0.0491

System opponent_avg: 0.1400

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.0491. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	4.000	1.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.091	0.250	-0.091	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.204	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_R	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.182	0.500	-0.182	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.774	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.204	-
predicted_R	0.161	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.053	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.148	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	-0.005
predicted_H	0.394	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.204	-0.000
predicted_R	0.165	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.201	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.053	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.225	0.003
predicted_H	0.407	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.011
predicted_R	0.176	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.187	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.788	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.1429	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.1034	0.1333	0.1379	0.1035	0.0000	0.0345	0.0345	0.3448
season	0.60	31	-	93.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	24.000	0.1398	0.2000	0.1828	0.1398	0.0107	0.0645	0.0753	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1390
predicted_AVG	0.1478
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.4640
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2038
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.2190
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.1010	0.0584	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1390	3.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1478	0.1479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.2140	0.2214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4640	0.3936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2040	0.2038	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1610	0.1720	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2350	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8410	0.7996	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672275
playerID	672275
playerName	Patrick Bailey
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 50

All-history rows before 20260520: 50

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2363

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.640	3.000	1.360	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.036	0.200
predicted_BB	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.740	1.000	-0.740	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.860	0.000	0.140	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.250	-0.167	-0.050
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.223	0.200
predicted_SO	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.580	0.000	-0.580	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.640	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.740	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	0.580	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.642	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.750	0.010
predicted_H	1.062	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.610	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.617	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.642	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.006
predicted_BB	0.760	0.011
predicted_H	1.098	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.207	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.011
predicted_R	0.648	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.655	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.002
predicted_SO	0.551	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 50

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5833	0.9444	0.5000	0.1111	0.3333	0.2778	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	0.3056	0.4468	0.5278	0.3056	0.0556	0.1944	0.2500	0.1389
season	0.60	50	-	182.000	43.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	30.000	37.000	29.000	0.2363	0.3665	0.4231	0.2363	0.0440	0.1209	0.2033	0.1593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6450
predicted_AVG	0.2959
predicted_BB	0.7630
predicted_H	1.0780
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.4115
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.6260
predicted_SLG	0.5301
predicted_SO	0.5290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2340	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6400	3.6450	3.6421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2959	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7400	0.7630	0.7495	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0780	1.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2060	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4115	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6240	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6260	0.6166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5301	0.5300	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5800	0.5290	0.5588	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	50
Season rows before report date	50
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	50
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2821

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.104	0.000	-0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	-0.119	0.250
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.041	0.020
predicted_AB	3.240	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.415	0.040
predicted_H	0.847	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.104	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.593	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.481	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.404	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.240	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.421	0.006
predicted_H	0.877	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.046
predicted_R	0.555	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.631	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.059
predicted_SO	0.398	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.3571	0.5263	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.3548	0.4474	0.5484	0.3548	0.0323	0.2581	0.1613	0.1290
season	0.60	48	-	156.000	44.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	27.000	22.000	18.000	18.000	0.2821	0.3687	0.4038	0.2821	0.0256	0.1731	0.1154	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0700
predicted_AB	3.2260
predicted_AVG	0.3020
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.1040
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.4001
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.6850
predicted_SLG	0.4807
predicted_SO	0.4450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1040	0.0930	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0700	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2260	3.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4730	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9740	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1040	0.1040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1150	0.1002	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.4001	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.6160	0.5225	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6850	0.5932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4807	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.4450	0.4036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 30

All-history rows before 20260520: 30

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	1.000	0.767	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	4.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.289	0.250
predicted_BB	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.600	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.200	0.245	0.400
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	2.000	1.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	1.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.500	1.089	1.000
predicted_SO	1.067	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	0.933	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.733	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.164	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.770	0.037
predicted_H	0.674	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.618	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.656	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.164	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.781	0.011
predicted_H	0.697	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.177	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.009
predicted_R	0.657	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.698	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.004
predicted_SO	1.041	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	0.2308	0.4545	0.5385	0.2308	0.0769	0.3077	0.5385	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	0.2069	0.3810	0.5862	0.2069	0.1035	0.3793	0.3103	0.3793
season	0.60	30	-	95.000	20.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	18.000	22.000	32.000	0.2105	0.3554	0.4105	0.2105	0.0421	0.1684	0.2316	0.3368

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1590
predicted_AVG	0.2199
predicted_BB	0.8280
predicted_H	0.6950
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3654
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.6820
predicted_SLG	0.4564
predicted_SO	1.0390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2160	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.1590	3.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2199	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7330	0.8280	0.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6950	0.6737	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1760	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6470	0.6184	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6820	0.6565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4564	0.4562	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.0390	1.0560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2456

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	5.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	0.052	0.400
predicted_R	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.189	0.250
predicted_SO	1.158	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	3.000	0.842	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.114	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.034
predicted_H	0.650	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.503	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.446	0.006
predicted_H	0.673	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.005
predicted_R	0.534	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.1935	0.2857	0.4194	0.1935	0.0645	0.2258	0.1290	0.3226
season	0.60	19	-	57.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.2456	0.3485	0.4386	0.2456	0.0526	0.1404	0.1579	0.3860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.2285
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3090
predicted_R	0.4610
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1390	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3190	3.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2285	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3790	0.4399	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7580	0.6502	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1350	0.1126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.4610	0.5027	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4790	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3948	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.0690	1.1261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2036

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	2.000	0.289	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.500	-0.204	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.689	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.689	1.000	-0.689	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	1.000	-0.756	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.500	-0.332	-0.500
predicted_R	0.511	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.511	1.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.511	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.511	0.000	0.489	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.689	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.511	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.570	-0.141
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.847	0.158
predicted_H	0.637	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.521	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.859	0.012
predicted_H	0.659	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.030
predicted_R	0.618	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.251	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.514	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	0.1667	0.5000	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.7500	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	5.000	0.1667	0.4222	0.2333	0.1667	0.0000	0.0667	0.4667	0.1667
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	34.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	23.000	31.000	23.000	0.2036	0.3317	0.2635	0.2036	0.0060	0.0659	0.1856	0.1377

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3700
predicted_AVG	0.1960
predicted_BB	1.0730
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3734
predicted_R	0.6810
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.2731
predicted_SO	0.5360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1830	0.1671	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.3700	3.5704	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1960	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6890	1.0730	0.8473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6610	0.6369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0221	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3734	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.6810	0.5811	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3070	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2731	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5110	0.5360	0.5213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2797

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	3.000	1.135	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.120	0.400
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	0.000	0.919	2.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.073	0.400
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.649	0.000	0.351	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_SO	0.811	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.879	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	0.006
predicted_H	1.043	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.125	-
predicted_HR	0.272	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.676	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.738	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.006
predicted_BB	0.171	0.002
predicted_H	1.079	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.278	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.016
predicted_R	0.719	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.785	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.014
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.5750	0.2500	0.1000	0.2250	0.0250	0.2250
season	0.60	37	-	143.000	40.000	8.000	9.000	24.000	23.000	6.000	30.000	0.2797	0.3268	0.5245	0.2797	0.0629	0.1678	0.0420	0.2098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8990
predicted_AVG	0.2723
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	1.0620
predicted_HBP	0.1250
predicted_HR	0.2740
predicted_OBP	0.3253
predicted_R	0.7560
predicted_RBI	0.7510
predicted_SLG	0.5329
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.1890	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.8990	3.8787	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2723	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1780	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0620	1.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1250	0.1250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2740	0.2716	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3253	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.7560	0.6759	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7510	0.7384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5329	0.5330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.7660	0.7929	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2479

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.457	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.457	4.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.002	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.074	0.400
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.087	0.500
predicted_SO	1.086	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.086	0.000	-0.086	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.457	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	1.086	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.461	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.008
predicted_H	0.650	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.046	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.461	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.397	0.006
predicted_H	0.672	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.003
predicted_R	0.442	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.004
predicted_SO	1.031	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0625	0.1176	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	10.000	0.1471	0.2750	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.2941
season	0.60	35	-	121.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	15.000	14.000	38.000	0.2479	0.3259	0.4132	0.2479	0.0331	0.1322	0.1157	0.3140

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4680
predicted_AVG	0.2004
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.6950
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2797
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3140
predicted_SO	0.9850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.1590	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4570	3.4680	3.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2004	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3790	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6950	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2797	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3950	0.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4060	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3140	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0860	0.9850	1.0459	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 42

All-history rows before 20260520: 42

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2654

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.065	0.200
predicted_BB	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	-0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.000	-0.149	0.200
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.000	0.331	0.800
predicted_SO	0.476	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.476	1.000	1.524	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	0.476	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.888	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.513	-0.011
predicted_H	0.816	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.673	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	0.521	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.888	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.004
predicted_BB	0.521	0.007
predicted_H	0.844	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.156	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.010
predicted_R	0.490	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.716	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.023
predicted_SO	0.514	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.0952	0.2083	0.2381	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905	0.1429	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1500	0.2391	0.2250	0.1500	0.0250	0.1750	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.60	42	-	162.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	7.000	30.000	19.000	22.000	20.000	0.2654	0.3495	0.4691	0.2654	0.0432	0.1852	0.1358	0.1235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2133
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3000
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.6920
predicted_SLG	0.3772
predicted_SO	0.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1520	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.9330	3.8881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2133	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.4980	0.5134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8390	0.8160	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1550	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4740	0.4610	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6920	0.6731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3772	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4760	0.5870	0.5214	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tanner Bibee (676440) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.400	3.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	5.000	7.000	3.000	1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.060	6.200	0.040	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	4.700	2.000	-3.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	11.000	22.000	11.000	24.000	3.000	3.5783	1.1928	0.3976	0.7952	0.3976	0.8675	0.1084
last_10	0.35	10	52.000	24.000	50.000	20.000	47.000	7.000	4.1538	1.3462	0.4615	0.9615	0.3846	0.9039	0.1346
season	0.20	10	52.000	24.000	50.000	20.000	47.000	7.000	4.1538	1.3462	0.4615	0.9615	0.3846	0.9039	0.1346

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1140
predicted_ER	2.4050
predicted_ERA	3.9662
predicted_H	4.8680
predicted_HR	0.6740
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.9480
predicted_WHIP	1.2791

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1140	1.0764	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4050	2.6970	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9662	3.9662	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.8680	6.4052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6740	0.8340	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.9480	3.0102	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2791	1.2791	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	8
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	676440
playerID	676440
playerName	Tanner Bibee
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.955	2.000	1.045	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.009	1.000	0.091	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.545	3.000	-1.545	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	2.0625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	8.000	1.000	19.000	0.000	0.8438	0.8438	0.0938	0.7500	0.0938	1.7812	0.0000
season	0.20	22	22.200	7.000	21.000	5.000	34.000	1.000	2.7794	1.1471	0.3088	0.9265	0.2206	1.5000	0.0441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	2.9942
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.3780
predicted_WHIP	1.1419

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2750	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3330	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9942	2.9942	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8660	1.5152	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3780	0.5892	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1419	1.1419	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 24

All-history rows before 20260520: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.696	1.000	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.583	2.000	0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000	0.0000	0.9231	2.5385	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8750	0.0000	0.1250	0.7500	2.2500	0.0000
season	0.20	24	20.200	4.000	7.000	11.000	38.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.3387	0.5323	1.8387	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.2620
predicted_ERA	2.4860
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4770
predicted_WHIP	1.1276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2620	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4860	2.4860	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5370	0.2244	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4770	1.7815	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1276	1.1276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	0.200	0.333	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	3.5217	1.0435	0.3913	0.6522	0.3913	0.9130	0.2609
season	0.20	21	21.000	11.000	19.000	5.000	21.000	4.000	4.7143	1.1429	0.5238	0.9048	0.2381	1.0000	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	4.5280
predicted_H	0.6770
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7170
predicted_WHIP	1.3295

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3510	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5280	4.5280	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6770	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7170	1.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3295	1.3295	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Codi Heuer (676051) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_ER	0.2160
predicted_ERA	4.2577
predicted_H	0.4470
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4360
predicted_WHIP	1.3677

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1760	0.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2160	0.0558	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2577	4.2577	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4470	0.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4360	0.1127	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3677	1.3677	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	676051
playerID	676051
playerName	Codi Heuer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: DET

Gage Workman (669398) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.150	0.150
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.250	-0.062	0.250
predicted_SO	1.750	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.750	2.000	-1.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	1.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.049	0.049
predicted_H	0.869	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000
predicted_SO	1.596	-0.154

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.445	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.048	-0.001
predicted_H	0.831	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.067
predicted_R	0.270	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.477	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.621	0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.4375
last_10	0.20	4	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.4375
season	0.60	4	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.4375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2890
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2463
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.4541
predicted_SO	1.1550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2890	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8700	3.9663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9530	0.8693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1660	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4130	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5680	0.5176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4541	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.7500	1.1550	1.5958	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669398
playerID	669398
playerName	Gage Workman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 15

All-history rows before 20260520: 15

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.333	-0.178	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.333	-0.245	-0.333
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.267	0.333	-0.267	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.070	0.003
predicted_AB	3.082	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	0.001
predicted_H	0.536	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.234	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000
predicted_AB	3.082	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.004
predicted_H	0.513	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.033
predicted_R	0.215	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.980	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3077	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1724	0.2500	0.2759	0.1724	0.1035	0.1035	0.3103
season	0.60	15	-	45.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.1778	0.2449	0.2667	0.1778	0.0889	0.0889	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0760
predicted_AB	3.2420
predicted_AVG	0.1994
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2647
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3221
predicted_SO	0.8960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1260	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0760	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2420	3.0820	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1994	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2710	0.2684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6460	0.5363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2647	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2990	0.2336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3340	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3221	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8960	0.9648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 33

All-history rows before 20260520: 33

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2783

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.485	4.000	1.515	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.122	0.150
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	1.030	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.080	0.150
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.250	0.052	0.150
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.485	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.486	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.192	0.010
predicted_H	0.841	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.407	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.142	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	0.931	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.486	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.189	-0.003
predicted_H	0.804	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.026
predicted_R	0.375	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.131	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.946	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2188	0.2857	0.2500	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125
season	0.60	33	-	115.000	32.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	30.000	0.2783	0.3197	0.3478	0.2783	0.0348	0.0522	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4880
predicted_AVG	0.2457
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.2958
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.3142
predicted_SO	0.9650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1670	0.2126	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4850	3.4880	3.4862	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2457	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2070	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8570	0.8406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2958	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3800	0.4067	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1450	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3142	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.9650	0.9310	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 39

All-history rows before 20260520: 39

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2416

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	5.000	1.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	-0.042	0.200
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.119	0.200
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.456	0.000	-0.256	0.200
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	2.000	0.179	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.803	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	0.049
predicted_H	0.888	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.803	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.006
predicted_H	0.849	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.035
predicted_R	0.426	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.862	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	0.2368	0.3409	0.4474	0.2368	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579	0.2632
season	0.60	39	-	149.000	36.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	18.000	13.000	32.000	0.2416	0.3193	0.4564	0.2416	0.0537	0.1812	0.0872	0.2148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7770
predicted_AVG	0.2379
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3283
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4060
predicted_SO	0.8880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1640	0.1884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7770	3.8032	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2379	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4530	0.3816	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8990	0.8877	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1550	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3283	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4620	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4540	0.4457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4060	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.8880	0.8481	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1688

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	4.000	1.652	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.696	0.000	1.304	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.087	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.248	-
predicted_SO	0.696	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.420	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.002
predicted_H	0.563	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.115	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.420	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.298	-0.005
predicted_H	0.538	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.021
predicted_R	0.106	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.179	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.220	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.691	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.60	23	-	77.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	0.1688	0.2381	0.2338	0.1688	0.0130	0.0649	0.0909	0.2078

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5410
predicted_AVG	0.1795
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2461
predicted_R	0.1620
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.2483
predicted_SO	0.6540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.0850	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.5410	3.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1795	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3000	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6360	0.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2461	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0870	0.1620	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2180	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6960	0.6540	0.6803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2898

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.826	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.826	5.000	1.174	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.200	0.110	0.200
predicted_BB	0.609	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.109	1.000	0.891	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.200	0.007	0.200
predicted_R	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.609	0.000	0.391	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.200	0.185	0.400
predicted_SO	0.587	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.587	2.000	-0.587	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.826	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.609	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.609	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.587	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.828	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	-0.032
predicted_H	1.032	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	-0.000
predicted_R	0.552	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.568	-0.009
predicted_H	0.986	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.014
predicted_R	0.509	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.223	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.002
predicted_SO	0.613	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.826

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3864	0.2973	0.2703	0.0000	0.0000	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.60	46	-	176.000	51.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	28.000	28.000	27.000	0.2898	0.3932	0.4148	0.2898	0.0114	0.0909	0.1591	0.1534

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.8310
predicted_AVG	0.2737
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3678
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.3632
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.1780	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0250	0.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8260	3.8310	3.8281	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2737	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6090	0.5310	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0480	1.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3678	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6090	0.4700	0.5516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2430	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3632	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5870	0.6260	0.6031	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	4.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.250	0.284	0.250
predicted_BB	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	1.000	1.226	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.400	0.310	0.200
predicted_R	0.355	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	0.000	0.645	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	0.000	2.484	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.250	0.872	1.000
predicted_SO	0.645	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.645	2.000	0.355	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.645	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.613	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	0.000
predicted_H	0.769	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.661	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.006
predicted_H	0.735	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.151	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.022
predicted_R	0.349	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.406	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.672	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.3947	0.1842	0.0526	0.1053	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	31	-	111.000	24.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	11.000	12.000	20.000	0.2162	0.2903	0.3784	0.2162	0.0270	0.1441	0.1081	0.1802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6620
predicted_AVG	0.2264
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3010
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.4220
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2900	0.2090	0.2582	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.6620	3.6128	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2264	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8290	0.7689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1670	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.4130	0.3778	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4720	0.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6450	0.6860	0.6611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3372

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	1.688	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	2.000	1.417	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	1.000	0.263	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.208	2.000	1.792	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.450	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.436	1.000	0.164	-0.400
predicted_R	0.604	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.604	2.000	0.396	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.000	0.506	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.350	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.450	-
predicted_R	0.604	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.554	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	-0.027
predicted_H	1.200	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.450	-0.000
predicted_R	0.568	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.494	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.102	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.554	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.547	-0.009
predicted_H	1.147	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.138	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.037
predicted_R	0.524	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.432	-0.036
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.119	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.280)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3750	0.5000	0.5000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	15.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.4412	0.5476	0.5588	0.4412	0.0000	0.1471	0.1765	0.2647
season	0.60	48	-	172.000	58.000	15.000	4.000	24.000	29.000	28.000	54.000	0.3372	0.4356	0.4942	0.3372	0.0233	0.1395	0.1628	0.3140

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.3499
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	1.2290
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.4495
predicted_R	0.5170
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4938
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.3300	0.3194	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.5130	3.5541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3500	0.3499	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.5170	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2290	1.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4500	0.4495	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6040	0.5170	0.5681	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4790	0.4678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4938	0.4939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0690	1.1019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Jake Rogers (668670) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 16

All-history rows before 20260520: 16

System season_avg: 0.1460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	2.929	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.562	3.000	1.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.213	0.250	-0.213	-0.250
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	2.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.073	0.002
predicted_AB	3.037	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	0.022
predicted_H	0.450	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.027	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.312	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.985	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.073	0.000
predicted_AB	3.037	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.045
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.004
predicted_H	0.430	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.026	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.053
predicted_R	0.288	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.214	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.051
predicted_SO	1.001	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2857	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1724	0.2353	0.2759	0.1724	0.1035	0.1035	0.3103
season	0.60	14	-	41.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	0.1463	0.2128	0.2439	0.1463	0.0976	0.0732	0.3415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0760
predicted_AB	3.2490
predicted_AVG	0.1873
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2561
predicted_R	0.3650
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.3123
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1320	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0760	0.0727	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9290	3.2490	3.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1873	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2790	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.6080	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0410	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2561	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3650	0.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.3150	0.2320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3123	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9550	0.9849	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.146

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	668670
playerID	668670
playerName	Jake Rogers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Framber Valdez (664285) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.100	4.000	-2.100	-4.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.800	4.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.600	5.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.430	5.000	-0.330	0.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	4.500	3.000	2.500	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	17.000	29.000	12.000	25.000	4.000	6.1200	1.6400	0.6800	1.1600	0.4800	1.0000	0.1600
last_10	0.35	10	55.000	28.000	56.000	21.000	45.000	5.000	4.5818	1.4000	0.5091	1.0182	0.3818	0.8182	0.0909
season	0.20	10	55.000	28.000	56.000	21.000	45.000	5.000	4.5818	1.4000	0.5091	1.0182	0.3818	0.8182	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1740
predicted_ER	2.9190
predicted_ERA	5.0442
predicted_H	5.4430
predicted_HR	0.6770
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.8510
predicted_WHIP	1.4625

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1740	1.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.9190	2.9588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0442	5.0442	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.4430	6.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6770	1.3264	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.8510	5.9058	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4625	1.4625	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	7
HR	2
BF	23
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	664285
playerID	664285
playerName	Framber Valdez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 12

All-history rows before 20260520: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.283	1.000	-0.183	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.583	0.000	-0.583	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	14.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	3.4615	1.3846	0.3846	1.0769	0.3077	1.1539	0.0769
season	0.20	12	16.100	5.000	16.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	2.7551	1.3469	0.3061	0.9796	0.3674	1.1633	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_ER	0.5980
predicted_ERA	4.2204
predicted_H	1.3290
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1910
predicted_WHIP	1.4145

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4730	0.7926	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5980	0.2354	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2204	4.2204	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3290	0.5231	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1660	0.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1910	1.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4145	1.4145	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 15

All-history rows before 20260520: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	0.440	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	1.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	14	12.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	2.1892	0.8919	0.2432	0.5676	0.3243	1.4595	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.3560
predicted_ERA	3.2040
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1450
predicted_WHIP	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3560	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2040	3.2040	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7400	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1450	0.4194	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0800	1.0800	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.762	1.000	2.238	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.5000	1.5000	0.1667	0.6667	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6857	0.6000	0.8571	0.1714
season	0.20	20	21.200	2.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	2.000	0.8308	1.2923	0.0923	0.6000	0.6923	0.6462	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.3640
predicted_ERA	2.9178
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8760
predicted_WHIP	1.3480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.6040	1.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3640	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9178	2.9178	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9100	0.3847	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8760	0.9476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3480	1.3480	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	3.000	1.600	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	0.100	-0.700	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	9.6429	2.1429	1.0714	0.8571	1.2857	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	0.000	3.4615	1.0769	0.3846	0.5385	0.5385	0.7692	0.0000
season	0.20	19	22.200	8.000	14.000	10.000	16.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.6177	0.4412	0.7059	0.0441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_ER	0.4220
predicted_ERA	5.1607
predicted_H	0.6070
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6470
predicted_WHIP	1.4290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4440	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4220	1.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1607	5.1607	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6070	0.8320	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0540	0.5955	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6470	0.8491	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4290	1.4290	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

20260520_HOU@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.544917, "home_win_probability": 0.544917, "away_win_probability": 0.455083, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 MIN", "confidence": 0.544917, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 3 - 4 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "HOU 2 - 4 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	HOU 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	0.545	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	HOU 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away HOU	4-6	0.400	2.10	4.50	-24	1W	cold	average
Home MIN	6-4	0.600	3.90	2.90	10	1L	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away HOU	20-30	0.400	-53	-1.060	True
Home MIN	22-27	0.449	-4	-0.082	True
Signal	-	-	0.978	1.052	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	HOU @ MIN	2 - 1	HOU	1	close
2026-05-18	HOU @ MIN	3 - 6	MIN	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target HOU	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized HOU	32	9	1	0	1	1	9
Player finalized MIN	31	8	5	0	2	2	9
Player model fractional HOU	32.12	6.79	3.61	1.04	2.97	3.10	7.49
Player model fractional MIN	31.93	7.61	4.66	1.06	3.98	3.19	8.55
Simulation box HOU	35	8	2	0	2	2	8
Simulation box MIN	31	8	4	0	4	3	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away HOU	Starter	Mike Burrows	4.20	4	5	8	3	4.94	1.37	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.58	1.40	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	0	1	0	0	4.42	1.31	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	0	1	0	0	3.67	1.33	True
Home MIN	Starter	Joe Ryan	5.20	2	6	8	0	3.50	1.17	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.46	1.35	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Luis García	1	0	1	0	1	5.27	1.44	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1	0	0	0	1	2.89	1.26	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: HOU

Jeremy Peña (665161) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 12

All-history rows before 20260520: 12

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	4.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.500	0.140	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	2.000	0.917	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.091	-0.100
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.500	0.260	0.100
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.107	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	-0.005
predicted_H	1.033	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.249	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.537	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.107	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.002
predicted_H	1.014	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.017
predicted_R	0.479	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.240	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.003
predicted_SO	0.542	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.176)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2727	0.2500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2750	0.3333	0.3750	0.2750	0.0250	0.0750	0.1000
season	0.60	12	-	50.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.2600	0.3091	0.3400	0.2600	0.0200	0.0600	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2430
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.9940
predicted_AVG	0.2551
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.3062
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.2460
predicted_SLG	0.3528
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2430	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	3.9940	4.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2551	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2360	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0190	1.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0460	0.0486	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3062	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4870	0.4955	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2460	0.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3528	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6060	0.5368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665161
playerID	665161
playerName	Jeremy Peña
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	3.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.333	0.059	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.500	-0.041	-0.250
predicted_R	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.386	1.000	-0.386	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.333	-0.039	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.159	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.159	1.000	-1.159	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.386	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.228	-
predicted_SO	1.159	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.426	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.019
predicted_H	0.469	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	1.166	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.426	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.134	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.004
predicted_H	0.461	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.033
predicted_R	0.352	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.201	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.207	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.177	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	12.000	0.0667	0.2222	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.4000
season	0.60	44	-	152.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	17.000	19.000	51.000	0.1908	0.2914	0.2895	0.1908	0.0197	0.0987	0.1250	0.3355

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3840
predicted_AVG	0.1555
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.5260
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.2283
predicted_SO	1.1770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.0920	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.3840	3.4261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1555	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3860	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5260	0.4691	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3860	0.3330	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2330	0.2075	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2280	0.2283	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1590	1.1770	1.1663	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	4.000	1.326	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.253	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	1.000	-0.930	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	1.000	-0.116	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	-0.344	-0.250
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	2.000	-0.465	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	1.000	-0.392	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.721	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.721	1.000	2.279	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.721	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.692	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.014
predicted_H	0.833	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.408	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.775	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.354	-0.003
predicted_H	0.818	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.129	0.000
predicted_HR	0.172	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.025
predicted_R	0.394	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.452	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.782	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.5000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.3590	0.2051	0.0513	0.1026	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.60	43	-	158.000	40.000	7.000	5.000	20.000	18.000	16.000	31.000	0.2532	0.3444	0.3924	0.2532	0.0316	0.1266	0.1013	0.1962

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7180
predicted_AVG	0.2289
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3146
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.4057
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1100	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.7180	3.6920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2289	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3370	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8510	0.8327	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3146	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3910	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4800	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4057	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7210	0.8540	0.7753	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 50

All-history rows before 20260520: 50

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3094

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	0.780	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.620	4.000	0.380	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.191	0.500
predicted_BB	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.620	0.000	-0.620	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.120	0.000	0.880	2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.000	0.081	0.500
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.620	0.000	-0.620	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.619	0.000	0.131	0.750
predicted_SO	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	2.000	-0.720	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.620	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.620	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.518	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.582	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	-0.011
predicted_H	0.935	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.241	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.518	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	0.081

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.582	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.604	-0.006
predicted_H	0.918	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.238	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.014
predicted_R	0.523	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.428	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.509	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.808	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 50

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	14.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.4412	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.2059	0.4118
season	0.60	50	-	181.000	56.000	11.000	15.000	31.000	30.000	31.000	36.000	0.3094	0.4194	0.6188	0.3094	0.0829	0.1713	0.1713	0.1989

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5290
predicted_AVG	0.2671
predicted_BB	0.5940
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2430
predicted_OBP	0.3779
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.5177
predicted_SO	0.9150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.1520	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6200	3.5290	3.5823	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2671	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6200	0.5940	0.6092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9430	0.9354	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2430	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3779	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4580	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4480	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5180	0.5177	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.9150	0.8008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	50
Season rows before report date	50
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	50
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2626

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.204	0.000	-0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.653	4.000	0.347	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.013	0.250
predicted_BB	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.959	0.000	0.041	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.000	-0.085	0.250
predicted_R	0.551	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.551	0.000	0.449	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.633	0.000	1.367	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.503	0.000	-0.253	0.250
predicted_SO	0.776	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.776	0.000	0.224	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.653	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.347	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.551	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.776	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.625	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.018
predicted_H	0.791	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.201	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.503	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.003
predicted_H	0.777	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.198	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.023
predicted_R	0.486	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.500	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.799	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.3529	0.1471	0.0588	0.1177	0.0882	0.2647
season	0.60	49	-	179.000	47.000	10.000	11.000	31.000	27.000	17.000	38.000	0.2626	0.3350	0.5028	0.2626	0.0614	0.1732	0.0950	0.2123

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3016
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.5290
predicted_SLG	0.4368
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2040	0.1450	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6530	3.5840	3.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3470	0.3040	0.3293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8070	0.7911	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2030	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3016	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5510	0.4350	0.5032	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5290	0.5178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4368	0.4369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7760	0.8130	0.7912	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jake Meyers (676694) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 11

All-history rows before 20260520: 11

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	3.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.333	-0.076	-0.083
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.333	-0.375	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	1.273	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.667	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.020
predicted_H	0.881	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.729	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.003
predicted_H	0.865	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.024
predicted_R	0.445	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.345	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.372	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.736	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2703	0.3333	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.1081	0.0811	0.1892
season	0.60	11	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3261	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.2582
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3254
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.4054
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1860	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.7290	3.6671	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3050	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9630	0.8811	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3254	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4710	0.4604	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3920	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4054	0.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7340	0.7293	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676694
playerID	676694
playerName	Jake Meyers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 24

All-history rows before 20260520: 24

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	0.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.242	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	0.012
predicted_H	0.566	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.242	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.004
predicted_H	0.556	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.038
predicted_R	0.320	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.344	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.582	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.0769	0.2500	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.1071	0.2188	0.2143	0.1071	0.0357	0.0714	0.1429	0.1786
season	0.60	24	-	78.000	20.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	8.000	9.000	14.000	0.2564	0.3333	0.4231	0.2564	0.0385	0.1667	0.1154	0.1795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2280
predicted_AVG	0.2044
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	0.6600
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2967
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.3337
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1130	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2280	3.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2044	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4070	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6600	0.5663	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0990	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2967	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3270	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4150	0.3556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3337	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.5670	0.5770	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.009	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.333	-0.040	-0.083
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.448	0.667	-0.198	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.307	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.007
predicted_H	0.735	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.240	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.307	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.227	-0.002
predicted_H	0.721	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.031
predicted_R	0.232	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.221	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.991	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	9	-	29.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2414	0.2903	0.4483	0.2414	0.0345	0.0690	0.0690	0.3103
season	0.60	9	-	29.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2414	0.2903	0.4483	0.2414	0.0345	0.0690	0.0690	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2453
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.3844
predicted_SO	0.9400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2260	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.5000	3.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2453	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2440	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8580	0.7345	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0830	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2800	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2700	0.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3844	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9400	0.9816	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2110

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.406	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	3.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.122	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	1.000	-0.219	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	1.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	1.000	-0.406	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.333	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.468	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.004
predicted_H	0.673	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.066	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.468	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.213	-0.002
predicted_H	0.660	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.019
predicted_R	0.381	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.240	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.076	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1622	0.1842	0.1622	0.1622	0.0000	0.0000	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.60	32	-	109.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	13.000	7.000	36.000	0.2110	0.2564	0.3761	0.2110	0.0367	0.1101	0.0642	0.3303

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5640
predicted_AVG	0.2118
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2560
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.3217
predicted_SO	0.9740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0970	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.5640	3.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2118	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.2100	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7550	0.6727	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2560	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.3760	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2780	0.2487	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3217	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9740	1.0661	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Mike Burrows (681347) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	3.000	1.111	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.556	7.000	0.444	-3.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.667	8.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.411	5.200	-1.211	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.111	4.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	16.000	27.000	10.000	28.000	5.000	5.0824	1.3059	0.5647	0.9529	0.3529	0.9882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	9	50.100	32.000	60.000	17.000	46.000	10.000	5.7219	1.5298	0.6358	1.1921	0.3377	0.9139	0.1987
season	0.20	9	50.100	32.000	60.000	17.000	46.000	10.000	5.7219	1.5298	0.6358	1.1921	0.3377	0.9139	0.1987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0300
predicted_ER	3.1100
predicted_ERA	4.9387
predicted_H	5.7070
predicted_HR	0.9380
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.4250
predicted_WHIP	1.3653

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0300	2.5158	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.1100	3.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9387	4.9387	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.7070	6.8555	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9380	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.4250	5.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3653	1.3653	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	5.72
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681347
playerID	681347
playerName	Mike Burrows
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.111	2.000	-1.111	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.000	0.089	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.7500	0.7500	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	5.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	4.0909	1.5455	0.4546	1.0000	0.5454	0.4546
season	0.20	18	21.000	7.000	20.000	9.000	17.000	3.0000	1.3810	0.3333	0.9524	0.4286	0.8095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.4100
predicted_ERA	3.5807
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7650
predicted_WHIP	1.3969

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4100	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5807	3.5807	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9390	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7650	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3969	1.3969	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.111	2.000	-1.111	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.889	0.200	0.111	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	1.1539	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	6.000	13.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	5.2258	1.4516	0.5806	1.2581	0.1935	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.100	10.000	20.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.9091	1.3091	0.5454	1.0909	0.2182	0.8727	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_ER	0.4920
predicted_ERA	4.4244
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9280
predicted_WHIP	1.3056

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2660	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4920	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4244	4.4244	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0400	0.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9280	0.9708	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3056	1.3056	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	0.100	0.194	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	0.000	-0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	1.3548	0.3871	0.6774	0.6774	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	17	15.100	13.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	4.000	7.6304	2.0870	0.8478	0.9130	1.1739	1.3696	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_ER	0.2160
predicted_ERA	3.6738
predicted_H	0.4380
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5330
predicted_WHIP	1.3267

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2640	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2160	0.6964	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6738	3.6738	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4380	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5330	0.8191	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3267	1.3267	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: MIN

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.387	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.387	4.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	0.000	-0.903	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.000	-0.134	0.250
predicted_R	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	0.000	-0.710	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.387	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.613	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.439	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	-0.042
predicted_H	0.842	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.585	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.726	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.004
predicted_BB	0.576	0.006
predicted_H	0.870	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.011
predicted_R	0.618	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.022
predicted_SO	0.719	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2162	0.2927	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0811	0.0811	0.1892
season	0.60	31	-	105.000	28.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	18.000	19.000	22.000	0.2667	0.3840	0.4000	0.2667	0.0191	0.1143	0.1809	0.2095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.5200
predicted_AVG	0.2492
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3486
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.3890
predicted_SO	0.7510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1450	0.1747	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0190	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3870	3.5200	3.4393	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2492	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6130	0.5050	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8770	0.8424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.5920	0.5853	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3590	0.3414	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3890	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.7510	0.7261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	-0.099	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	-0.196	0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.969	0.000	0.031	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.969	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.340	0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.529	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.035
predicted_H	0.948	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.494	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.471	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.340	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.003
predicted_H	0.980	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.149	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.015
predicted_R	0.521	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.457	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.911	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	12.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.3429	0.3947	0.6000	0.3429	0.0286	0.0857	0.0286	0.2000
season	0.60	32	-	112.000	28.000	10.000	4.000	12.000	16.000	12.000	31.000	0.2500	0.3488	0.4464	0.2500	0.0357	0.1071	0.1071	0.2768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5730
predicted_AVG	0.2775
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.9920
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3564
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.4706
predicted_SO	0.8450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.3840	0.3404	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5730	3.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2775	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.2850	0.3395	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9920	0.9484	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1000	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3564	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4840	0.4937	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3850	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4706	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9690	0.8450	0.9200	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-1B
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1827

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.355	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.355	3.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.151	0.333
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.250	-0.041	0.000
predicted_R	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.221	0.000	0.112	0.333
predicted_SO	0.774	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	1.000	-0.774	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.355	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.194	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.209	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.356	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.005
predicted_H	0.498	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.238	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.000
predicted_R	0.194	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.356	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.354	0.004
predicted_H	0.515	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.044
predicted_R	0.205	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.195	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.0667	0.2500	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	0.0938	0.2308	0.0938	0.0938	0.0000	0.0938	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.60	31	-	104.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	6.000	11.000	24.000	0.1827	0.2913	0.2212	0.1827	0.0096	0.1346	0.1058	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3570
predicted_AVG	0.1613
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.5420
predicted_HBP	0.2380
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2775
predicted_R	0.1950
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.2091
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.0460	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3550	3.3570	3.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1613	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3430	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5420	0.4984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2380	0.2380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2775	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1940	0.1950	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4230	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2090	0.2091	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8150	0.7902	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Kreidler (668952) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.000	-0.164	0.250
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.583	0.000	-0.333	0.250
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	2.000	1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.086	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.605	-0.020
predicted_H	0.789	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.612	0.006
predicted_H	0.815	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.008
predicted_R	0.645	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.052
predicted_SO	0.862	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.3846	0.5294	0.4615	0.3846	0.0000	0.0000	0.3077	0.3077
last_10	0.20	8	-	24.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.5833	0.2917	0.0833	0.1667	0.2083	0.2917
season	0.60	8	-	24.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.2917	0.4138	0.5833	0.2917	0.0833	0.1667	0.2083	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.2840
predicted_AVG	0.2961
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3942
predicted_R	0.5780
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.4508
predicted_SO	0.8610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1830	0.1425	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2840	3.0856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5600	0.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9730	0.7892	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1040	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.5780	0.6108	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3100	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4508	0.4509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8610	0.8708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668952
playerID	668952
playerName	Ryan Kreidler
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2349

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.689	4.000	-0.689	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.422	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	0.000	0.578	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	1.000	-0.867	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	2.000	-0.378	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.313	0.250	-0.313	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.689	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.040	0.018
predicted_AB	3.675	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.008
predicted_H	0.835	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.418	0.004
predicted_H	0.863	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.010
predicted_R	0.499	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.704	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.2424	0.3750	0.3030	0.2424	0.0000	0.0606	0.1818	0.2424
season	0.60	45	-	166.000	39.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	17.000	21.000	19.000	30.000	0.2349	0.3175	0.3133	0.2349	0.0060	0.1024	0.1145	0.1807

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.3324
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1150	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0660	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6890	3.6560	3.6755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.4020	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8860	0.8353	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4810	0.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3610	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3324	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7740	0.7109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2644

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	2.000	-0.220	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.244	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.244	5.000	-1.244	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.400	0.069	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.317	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.317	0.000	0.683	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.122	2.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.400	0.179	0.100
predicted_R	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.639	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.586	0.800	-0.253	-0.467
predicted_SO	1.171	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	1.000	-1.171	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.244	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.317	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.829	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.639	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.037
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.220	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	0.024
predicted_H	1.147	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.391	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.840	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.643	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.639	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	4.220	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.005
predicted_BB	0.344	0.003
predicted_H	1.185	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.404	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.004
predicted_R	0.887	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.679	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.639	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.145	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.244

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4167	0.9048	0.3333	0.1429	0.1905	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	9.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	0.2791	0.3404	0.7209	0.2791	0.1163	0.2093	0.0930	0.2791
season	0.60	41	-	174.000	46.000	9.000	1.000	15.000	23.000	34.000	13.000	48.000	0.2644	0.3211	0.5862	0.2644	0.0862	0.1322	0.0747	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3100
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	4.1860
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.3930
predicted_OBP	0.3388
predicted_R	0.8560
predicted_RBI	0.6470
predicted_SLG	0.6386
predicted_SO	1.1350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.3100	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2440	4.1860	4.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3170	0.3750	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1560	1.1466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3930	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8290	0.8560	0.8401	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6470	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6390	0.6386	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.1350	1.1562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	2.000	0.619	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.250	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.148	0.500
predicted_SO	1.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.238	0.000	-0.238	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.238	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.411	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.020
predicted_H	0.633	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.194	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.411	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.164	0.002
predicted_H	0.653	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.023
predicted_R	0.347	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.182	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1818	0.2286	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0303	0.0606	0.3333
season	0.60	21	-	71.000	15.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	7.000	3.000	26.000	0.2113	0.2500	0.3521	0.2113	0.0423	0.1972	0.0423	0.3662

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4620
predicted_AVG	0.2040
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2521
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3076
predicted_SO	1.1170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.0680	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.4620	3.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2040	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1970	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7060	0.6326	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0950	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2521	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3200	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4620	0.4101	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3076	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2380	1.1170	1.1936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2093

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	3.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.124	0.333
predicted_BB	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.106	0.333
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	0.008	0.333
predicted_SO	1.308	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	1.000	-1.308	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.076	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.366	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	0.023
predicted_H	0.652	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.396	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	1.247	-0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.076	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.101	0.001
predicted_H	0.673	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.036	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.040
predicted_R	0.418	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.234	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.4118	0.2647	0.0882	0.0294	0.2941
season	0.60	13	-	43.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	17.000	0.2093	0.2273	0.3256	0.2093	0.0698	0.0233	0.3953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0740
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.2290
predicted_BB	0.1460
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3654
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1910	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0740	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.4820	3.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1460	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7970	0.6519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0460	0.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4180	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3000	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3654	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.1230	1.2467	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2321

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.7500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.750	0.018	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	3.000	0.114	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.750	-0.043	-0.500
predicted_R	0.523	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.750	-0.113	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.977	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	0.000	1.023	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.523	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.849	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.045
predicted_H	1.026	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.777	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.849	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.002
predicted_BB	0.276	0.003
predicted_H	1.060	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.179	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.011
predicted_R	0.519	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.821	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.002
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.7500	0.4000	0.1000	0.3500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	17.000	0.2927	0.2927	0.4878	0.2927	0.0488	0.2439	0.0000	0.4146
season	0.60	44	-	168.000	39.000	7.000	5.000	28.000	23.000	14.000	43.000	0.2321	0.2935	0.3631	0.2321	0.0298	0.1667	0.0833	0.2560

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2731
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3133
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.8010
predicted_SLG	0.4557
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1760	0.1660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.8950	3.8495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2731	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.2080	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0640	1.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3133	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5230	0.4460	0.4915	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8010	0.7768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4557	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	1.0820	1.0199	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Joe Ryan (657746) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.800	1.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	3.700	4.000	4.300	4.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.020	6.000	0.180	-0.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.200	7.000	0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	8.000	19.000	8.000	24.000	2.000	3.0857	1.1571	0.3429	0.8143	0.3429	1.0286	0.0857
last_10	0.35	10	50.200	18.000	37.000	14.000	52.000	3.000	3.1974	1.0066	0.3553	0.7303	0.2763	1.0263	0.0592
season	0.20	10	50.200	18.000	37.000	14.000	52.000	3.000	3.1974	1.0066	0.3553	0.7303	0.2763	1.0263	0.0592

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7090
predicted_ER	1.9840
predicted_ERA	3.5025
predicted_H	4.2380
predicted_HR	0.4730
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.1110
predicted_WHIP	1.1667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7090	0.8702	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.9840	1.9919	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5025	3.5025	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.2380	6.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4730	0.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.1110	5.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1667	1.1667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	8
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	6
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.20
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	657746
playerID	657746
playerName	Joe Ryan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.016	1.100	0.084
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	0.053

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	1.3500	1.3500	0.1500	0.7500	0.6000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	5.000	10.000	8.000	10.000	3.5526	1.4211	0.3947	0.7895	0.6316	0.7895
season	0.20	19	22.100	9.000	19.000	12.000	18.000	3.6269	1.3881	0.4030	0.8508	0.5373	0.8060

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_ER	0.5120
predicted_ERA	3.4576
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0750
predicted_WHIP	1.3481

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6420	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5120	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4576	3.4576	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1550	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0750	1.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3481	1.3481	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.3529	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	9.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	8.1000	1.7000	0.9000	1.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	15.000	11.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	6.6000	1.6667	0.7333	1.3333	0.3333	0.4000	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_ER	0.5860
predicted_ERA	5.2739
predicted_H	1.0660
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7260
predicted_WHIP	1.4390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3730	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5860	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2739	5.2739	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0660	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1770	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7260	0.8945	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4390	1.4390	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.735	0.200	0.265	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562
season	0.20	19	18.200	5.000	21.000	5.000	14.000	2.4107	1.3929	0.2679	1.1250	0.2679	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_ER	0.3210
predicted_ERA	2.8914
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8620
predicted_WHIP	1.2624

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2680	0.7019	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3210	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8914	2.8914	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9940	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8620	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2624	1.2624	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260520_LAD@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 2 - 3 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 2 - 3 SD", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 2 - 3 SD", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 2 - 3 SD", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 2 - 3 SD	SD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 2 - 3 SD	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	5-5	0.500	4.90	3.50	14	1L	average	average
Home SD	7-3	0.700	3.30	3.10	2	4W	cold	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	29-19	0.604	93	1.938	True
Home SD	29-18	0.617	8	0.170	True
Signal	-	-	-1.767	-1.748	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	LAD @ SD	0 - 1	SD	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target SD	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	34	9	6	0	6	3	8
Player finalized SD	34	9	1	0	3	1	9
Player model fractional LAD	33.23	7.70	5.46	1.28	4.83	3.96	7.80
Player model fractional SD	32.65	6.53	3.72	0.97	3.25	3.06	8.51
Simulation box LAD	34	7	2	0	2	2	6
Simulation box SD	28	4	3	1	3	3	2

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Shohei Ohtani	5.20	1	2	2	3	2.38	1.04	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	2.10	2	0	2	0	2.78	0.96	True
Home SD	Starter	Randy Vásquez	5.20	2	5	7	1	3.29	1.13	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1	0	0	0	0	3.68	1.12	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1.10	0	1	0	1	2.82	1.20	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1	0	0	0	0	2.60	1.36	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	2.000	0.771	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.841	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.521	3.000	1.479	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.667	-0.072	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	2.000	0.042	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.750	-0.199	-0.550
predicted_R	0.705	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.646	1.000	0.354	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.521	1.000	0.479	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	1.333	-0.073	-0.933
predicted_SO	1.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.841	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.433	-
predicted_R	0.705	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	0.047
predicted_3B	0.041	0.018
predicted_AB	3.847	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.733	-0.017
predicted_H	1.178	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.000
predicted_R	0.693	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000
predicted_SO	1.058	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.847	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.743	0.010
predicted_H	1.201	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.424	-0.009
predicted_R	0.718	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.785	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.496	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.841

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.5263	0.6250	0.8421	0.5263	0.0000	0.4210	0.2632	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.5750	0.3500	0.0250	0.2500	0.1500	0.2750
season	0.60	44	-	169.000	46.000	11.000	1.000	7.000	25.000	31.000	33.000	48.000	0.2722	0.3990	0.4734	0.2722	0.0414	0.1479	0.1953	0.2840

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3640
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.8560
predicted_AVG	0.3267
predicted_BB	0.7090
predicted_H	1.2600
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.4329
predicted_R	0.6770
predicted_RBI	0.8120
predicted_SLG	0.5459
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3640	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0660	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8410	3.8560	3.8472	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3267	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7090	0.7331	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2600	1.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1160	0.1066	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4330	0.4329	0.4330	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7050	0.6770	0.6934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8120	0.7580	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5459	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0110	1.0580	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2680

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.031	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.031	3.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.000	-0.089	0.250
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.000	-0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.031	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.001
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.104	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.016
predicted_H	0.654	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.104	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.365	0.005
predicted_H	0.667	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.028
predicted_R	0.434	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.843	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2647	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.4000
season	0.60	32	-	97.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	11.000	26.000	0.2680	0.3394	0.3402	0.2680	0.0103	0.1031	0.1134	0.2680

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.2190
predicted_AVG	0.2442
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3249
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.3110
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0640	0.0628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0260	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0310	3.2190	3.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2442	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3850	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7860	0.6536	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3249	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.4390	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3080	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.9210	0.8542	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1724

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.143	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.143	4.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.328	0.500
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.226	0.000	0.274	0.500
predicted_R	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.103	0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.114	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	0.007
predicted_H	0.793	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.242	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.539	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.224	0.003
predicted_H	0.809	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.249	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.010
predicted_R	0.639	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.532	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 4.143

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.4762	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.1628	0.2000	0.3721	0.1628	0.0698	0.0930	0.0465	0.1163
season	0.60	14	-	58.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	0.1724	0.2258	0.3966	0.1724	0.0690	0.1552	0.0517	0.1207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.0600
predicted_AVG	0.1970
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_OBP	0.2485
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.4039
predicted_SO	0.6110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0920	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1430	4.0600	4.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1970	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2350	0.2214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8000	0.7935	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2460	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2485	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.5690	0.6168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5230	0.5211	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4039	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6110	0.5394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2628

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.333	-0.263	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	1.000	-0.911	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	-0.115	-0.250
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.526	0.333	-0.526	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.067	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	2.000	-1.067	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.498	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.554	-0.002
predicted_H	0.777	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.217	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.808	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	1.123	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.498	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.561	0.007
predicted_H	0.792	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.223	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.011
predicted_R	0.837	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.108	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	5.000	13.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4571	0.2000	0.0857	0.1714	0.1429	0.3714
season	0.60	45	-	156.000	41.000	5.000	12.000	19.000	35.000	25.000	48.000	0.2628	0.3646	0.5256	0.2628	0.0769	0.1218	0.1603	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2420
predicted_OBP	0.3449
predicted_R	0.8510
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.4720
predicted_SO	1.2040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0830	0.0996	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.5430	3.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5510	0.5540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8590	0.7768	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2420	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3449	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.8510	0.8078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4570	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4720	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.2040	1.1230	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	0.914	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	0.000	0.057	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	-0.061	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.142	0.500
predicted_SO	0.771	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	1.229	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.770	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.001
predicted_H	0.766	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.481	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.375	0.005
predicted_H	0.781	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.020
predicted_R	0.498	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2857	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2683	0.2647	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.60	35	-	134.000	33.000	3.000	4.000	19.000	16.000	13.000	27.000	0.2463	0.3113	0.3582	0.2463	0.0299	0.1418	0.0970	0.2015

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.2989
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.3480
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.0700	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.6810	3.7696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2227	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.3680	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8200	0.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1290	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2989	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.5160	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4640	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3480	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.8510	0.8031	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2599

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.500	-0.010	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	2.000	-0.130	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.500	-0.092	-0.250
predicted_R	0.413	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.413	2.000	-0.413	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	2.000	-0.185	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	2.000	-0.652	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.413	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.788	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	0.044
predicted_H	0.810	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.453	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.479	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	0.101

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.007
predicted_H	0.826	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.196	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.015
predicted_R	0.469	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.496	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.013
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.4444	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	0.1818	0.3415	0.3939	0.1818	0.0606	0.0909	0.2424	0.2727
season	0.60	46	-	177.000	46.000	11.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	19.000	21.000	30.000	0.2599	0.3417	0.4350	0.2599	0.0339	0.1299	0.1186	0.1695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2184
predicted_BB	0.5640
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.3249
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.4244
predicted_SO	0.8980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.1630	0.2077	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.7030	3.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2184	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.5640	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8090	0.8096	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1920	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3249	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4130	0.5110	0.4533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4770	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4244	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.8980	0.7533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.739	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.739	4.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	0.000	-0.935	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.696	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.848	1.000	-0.848	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.739	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.565	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.696	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.848	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.701	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.552	-0.013
predicted_H	0.820	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.672	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.456	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.701	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.559	0.007
predicted_H	0.837	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.002
predicted_R	0.696	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.2258	0.3846	0.3548	0.2258	0.0000	0.0968	0.2258	0.1935
season	0.60	46	-	172.000	43.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	32.000	26.000	39.000	0.2500	0.3483	0.3953	0.2500	0.0233	0.1279	0.1512	0.2267

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6460
predicted_AVG	0.2290
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3299
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.3562
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2830	0.2820	0.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7390	3.6460	3.7007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5650	0.5330	0.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8350	0.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3299	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6960	0.6390	0.6725	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4640	0.4558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3562	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8480	0.7940	0.8258	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2625

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	4.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	1.000	-0.955	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.250	-0.335	-0.250
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.500	-0.406	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.159	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.159	3.000	0.841	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	1.159	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.662	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.020
predicted_H	0.889	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.563	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.533	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.662	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.348	0.005
predicted_H	0.907	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.031
predicted_R	0.583	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.551	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.044
predicted_SO	1.118	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.3514	0.4146	0.5405	0.3513	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	44	-	160.000	42.000	8.000	5.000	23.000	24.000	16.000	51.000	0.2625	0.3352	0.4062	0.2625	0.0312	0.1437	0.1000	0.3187

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6990
predicted_AVG	0.2752
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.5900
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.4394
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2220	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.6990	3.6617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2752	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3140	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0180	0.8889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1270	0.1110	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5900	0.5634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.6090	0.5326	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4394	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1590	1.0960	1.1333	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2961

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.729	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.729	3.000	-0.729	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.000	0.371	0.667
predicted_BB	0.271	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.271	0.000	0.729	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.104	0.000	0.896	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.405	0.750
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.000	0.158	0.667
predicted_SO	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.729	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.271	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.743	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	0.005
predicted_H	0.862	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.563	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.280	0.004
predicted_H	0.880	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.171	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.013
predicted_R	0.583	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.849	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.808	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2273	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.1389	0.2381	0.2222	0.1389	0.0278	0.1944	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.60	48	-	179.000	53.000	8.000	10.000	42.000	27.000	13.000	39.000	0.2961	0.3452	0.5084	0.2961	0.0559	0.2346	0.0726	0.2179

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7630
predicted_AVG	0.2453
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3009
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.8780
predicted_SLG	0.4164
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1110	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7290	3.7630	3.7430	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2453	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2710	0.2840	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9230	0.8624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1760	0.1666	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3009	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.5640	0.5628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.8780	0.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4164	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.8290	0.8190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 7

All-history rows before 20260520: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.571	2.000	1.429	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.571	4.000	-1.571	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.286	7.000	-1.086	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	7.143	8.000	-5.143	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	4.000	20.000	7.000	42.000	2.000	1.1250	0.8438	0.1250	0.6250	0.2188	1.3125	0.0625
last_10	0.35	7	44.000	4.000	25.000	11.000	50.000	2.000	0.8182	0.8182	0.0909	0.5682	0.2500	1.1364	0.0454
season	0.20	7	44.000	4.000	25.000	11.000	50.000	2.000	0.8182	0.8182	0.0909	0.5682	0.2500	1.1364	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7530
predicted_ER	1.6010
predicted_ERA	2.3799
predicted_H	4.5310
predicted_HR	0.5360
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.8930
predicted_WHIP	1.0377

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7530	2.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.6010	1.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3799	2.3799	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.5310	3.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5360	0.7801	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	6.0000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	6.8930	4.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0377	1.0377	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	2
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	105
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	1.857	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.881	1.100	1.219	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	2.000	-0.952	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	21	19.200	3.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	2.000	1.3729	0.6102	0.1525	0.4576	0.1525	1.0170	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.3090
predicted_ERA	2.7772
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9780
predicted_WHIP	0.9596

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2930	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3090	1.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7772	2.7772	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6660	1.4495	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9780	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9596	0.9596	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.37
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: SD

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2485

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	4.000	-0.674	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.249	0.000	-0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.913	0.000	-0.913	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	-0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.717	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.717	1.000	0.283	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	0.717	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.671	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.033
predicted_H	0.806	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.671	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.003
predicted_H	0.776	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.013
predicted_R	0.431	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.265	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.764	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.60	46	-	169.000	42.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	21.000	18.000	33.000	0.2485	0.3209	0.3728	0.2485	0.0355	0.1243	0.1065	0.1953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6660
predicted_AVG	0.2341
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2943
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3241
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0750	0.0691	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.6660	3.6707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2341	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3100	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8580	0.8060	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2943	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4600	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2990	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3241	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7170	0.8170	0.7580	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.249

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 26

All-history rows before 20260520: 26

System season_avg: 0.1530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	4.000	-0.269	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.153	0.000	-0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.356	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.030
predicted_H	0.469	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.129	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.356	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.002
predicted_H	0.452	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.019
predicted_R	0.365	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.121	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.196	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.824	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.135 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1429	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0294	0.2059
season	0.60	26	-	85.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	21.000	0.1529	0.2371	0.2000	0.1529	0.0353	0.0941	0.2471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4960
predicted_AVG	0.1618
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.5660
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2187
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2193
predicted_SO	0.8310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1150	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.4960	3.3555	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1618	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2280	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5660	0.4694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2187	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.3310	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1600	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	0.8310	0.8168	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.153

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	0.000	-0.825	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	-0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	1.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	1.000	-1.300	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.007
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.008
predicted_H	0.674	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.285	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.691	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.004
predicted_H	0.649	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.032
predicted_R	0.430	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.254	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.295	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.1667	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4333
season	0.60	40	-	150.000	33.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	17.000	52.000	0.2200	0.3000	0.3800	0.2200	0.0333	0.1267	0.1133	0.3467

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.2093
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2908
predicted_R	0.4330
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3288
predicted_SO	1.2620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1420	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0260	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6050	3.6911	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.4050	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7540	0.6744	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0737	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2908	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.4330	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3000	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.2620	1.2846	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1932

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.520	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.520	4.000	-1.520	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.307	0.500
predicted_BB	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.160	0.000	0.840	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	0.320	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	0.920	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.226	0.000	0.441	0.667
predicted_R	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	0.000	2.360	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	1.682	2.000
predicted_SO	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.040	2.000	-1.040	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.520	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.160	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.240	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	1.040	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.543	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	-0.008
predicted_H	0.673	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.000
predicted_R	0.275	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.054	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.151	-0.001
predicted_H	0.648	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.216	-0.021
predicted_R	0.259	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.514	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.063	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	12.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.2059	0.0000	0.3529
season	0.60	25	-	88.000	17.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	6.000	4.000	26.000	0.1932	0.2258	0.3182	0.1932	0.0227	0.1818	0.0454	0.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2080
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2377
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.3577
predicted_SO	1.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1960	0.1985	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5200	3.5820	3.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2080	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1600	0.1390	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7450	0.6735	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1110	0.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2377	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2400	0.3330	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6070	0.5467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3577	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0400	1.0780	1.0544	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.587	4.000	-0.587	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.250	-0.182	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.250	-0.027	0.000
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	2.000	-0.478	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	1.000	-0.339	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.935	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	1.000	-0.935	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.587	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.608	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.040
predicted_H	0.596	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.433	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.947	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.608	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.004
predicted_H	0.574	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.003
predicted_R	0.503	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.407	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.955	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.3333	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.1351	0.1750	0.3243	0.1351	0.0541	0.1081	0.0541	0.2973
season	0.60	46	-	165.000	30.000	5.000	7.000	22.000	25.000	23.000	43.000	0.1818	0.2775	0.3394	0.1818	0.0424	0.1333	0.1394	0.2606

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.1700
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_H	0.6180
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2502
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.3435
predicted_SO	0.9640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.1330	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5870	3.6380	3.6079	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4030	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6180	0.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.5230	0.5348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4510	0.4327	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3435	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.9640	0.9469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2459

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.297	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.297	1.000	0.703	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	2.000	-0.432	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.667	-0.088	-0.417
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	1.000	-0.459	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.672	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.000	-0.242	0.250
predicted_SO	0.784	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.297	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.672	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.235	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	0.121
predicted_H	0.975	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.317	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.071
predicted_RBI	0.658	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.672	0.000
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.549	-0.005
predicted_H	0.939	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.301	-0.016
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.029
predicted_R	0.498	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.618	-0.039
predicted_SLG	0.640	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.789	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	0.5000	0.6842	1.3333	0.5000	0.2500	0.4167	0.5833	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	0.3704	0.5405	0.8519	0.3704	0.1482	0.2963	0.3704	0.2222
season	0.60	37	-	122.000	30.000	9.000	7.000	17.000	17.000	16.000	29.000	0.2459	0.3381	0.4918	0.2459	0.0574	0.1393	0.1311	0.2377

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1410
predicted_AVG	0.3079
predicted_BB	0.7370
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.4225
predicted_R	0.6380
predicted_RBI	0.6540
predicted_SLG	0.6725
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2030	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2970	3.1410	3.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3079	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.7370	0.5534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9670	0.9748	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3130	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4225	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.6380	0.5303	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6540	0.6576	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6720	0.6725	0.6722	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.7800	0.7824	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	3.000	0.229	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.333	-0.053	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.078	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	2.000	-0.486	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.556	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.530	1.333	-0.280	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.686	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.556	-
predicted_SO	0.686	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.002
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.796	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.131	0.017
predicted_H	1.109	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.582	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.556	0.000
predicted_SO	0.668	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.130	-0.001
predicted_H	1.068	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.192	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.023
predicted_R	0.451	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.547	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.674	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.7500	0.3500	0.1000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.2821	0.3000	0.6154	0.2821	0.0769	0.1795	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.60	35	-	132.000	40.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	17.000	15.000	4.000	24.000	0.3030	0.3285	0.5303	0.3030	0.0379	0.1288	0.0303	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3180
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.2967
predicted_BB	0.1560
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3283
predicted_R	0.5580
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.5563
predicted_SO	0.6420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3140	0.3180	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0310	0.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.8350	3.7964	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2967	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.1560	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1380	1.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2050	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3283	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5580	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6000	0.5819	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5560	0.5563	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6860	0.6420	0.6685	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.911	3.000	-0.911	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.333	-0.205	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.356	1.000	-0.356	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.500	-0.275	-0.500
predicted_R	0.511	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.333	-0.324	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.089	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.089	0.000	-0.089	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.911	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.356	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.089	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.868	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.013
predicted_H	0.625	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.085	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.868	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.003
predicted_H	0.601	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.021
predicted_R	0.429	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.246	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.094	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.911

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	0.1081	0.1951	0.1351	0.1081	0.0000	0.0270	0.1081	0.3513
season	0.60	45	-	176.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	23.000	16.000	49.000	0.2045	0.2746	0.3239	0.2046	0.0227	0.1080	0.0909	0.2784

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.1770
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2448
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.2737
predicted_SO	1.0790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9110	3.8060	3.8679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1770	0.1770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3560	0.3250	0.3433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6740	0.6245	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2448	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.3790	0.4568	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3320	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2737	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0890	1.0790	1.0849	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	5.000	-0.848	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.400	0.096	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.413	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.413	0.000	0.587	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.913	2.000	0.087	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.400	0.190	0.100
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	1.000	0.630	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.400	0.056	-0.067
predicted_SO	1.065	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.065	1.000	-1.065	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.413	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	1.065	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.881	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.022
predicted_H	0.856	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.003
predicted_H	0.824	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.004
predicted_R	0.352	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.239	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.047	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2750
season	0.60	46	-	177.000	42.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	17.000	19.000	49.000	0.2373	0.3100	0.2768	0.2373	0.0791	0.1073	0.2768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.2236
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2885
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.2640
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.0820	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.9290	3.8814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2236	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4130	0.3590	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8790	0.8561	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2885	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3800	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2600	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0650	1.0010	1.0386	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-RF
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Randy Vásquez (681190) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	0.000	-0.444	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.667	0.000	0.333	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.778	4.000	2.222	3.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.489	6.000	-0.289	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	3.000	0.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	9.000	23.000	5.000	20.000	3.000	2.8256	0.9767	0.3140	0.8023	0.1744	0.6977	0.1047
last_10	0.35	9	50.100	15.000	43.000	13.000	45.000	4.000	2.6821	1.1126	0.2980	0.8543	0.2583	0.8940	0.0795
season	0.20	9	50.100	15.000	43.000	13.000	45.000	4.000	2.6821	1.1126	0.2980	0.8543	0.2583	0.8940	0.0795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5180
predicted_ER	2.0740
predicted_ERA	3.2947
predicted_H	4.8970
predicted_HR	0.6100
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.7450
predicted_WHIP	1.1319

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5180	1.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0740	2.0369	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2947	3.2947	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.8970	5.9503	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6100	0.3045	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.7450	3.3701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1319	1.1319	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.68
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681190
playerID	681190
playerName	Randy Vásquez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.619	0.000	-0.619	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.095	1.000	-1.095	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.381	1.000	-1.381	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	2.2500	0.7500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	3.1765	0.9706	0.3529	0.6177	0.3529	1.4118	0.0882
season	0.20	21	24.000	13.000	23.000	6.000	29.000	2.000	4.8750	1.2083	0.5417	0.9583	0.2500	1.2083	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	3.6829
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9890
predicted_WHIP	1.1231

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6829	3.6829	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7320	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.9890	2.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1231	1.1231	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.88
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	0.247	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	15.200	2.000	10.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	1.1489	0.9574	0.1277	0.6383	0.3191	0.4468	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	2.8227
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7630
predicted_WHIP	1.2049

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3850	0.7605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8227	2.8227	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8200	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7630	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2049	1.2049	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.977	0.200	0.023	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.045	0.000	-2.045	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.0000	1.6875	0.0000	0.5625	1.1250	2.0625
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	1.7419	1.3548	0.1935	0.6774	0.6774	1.7419
season	0.20	22	22.200	2.000	10.000	9.000	45.000	0.7941	0.8382	0.0882	0.4412	0.3971	1.9853

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.5954
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4180
predicted_WHIP	1.3572

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5890	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2880	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5954	2.5954	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7690	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4180	0.6063	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3572	1.3572	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.79
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260520_MIL@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.553085, "home_win_probability": 0.44691499999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.553085, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "confidence": 0.553085, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 6 - 3 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 4 - 3 CHC	MIL	0.553	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 6 - 3 CHC	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	8-2	0.800	4.50	2.70	18	2W	average	strong
Home CHC	2-8	0.200	3.10	5.40	-23	4L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	28-18	0.609	70	1.522	True
Home CHC	29-20	0.592	33	0.673	True
Signal	-	-	-0.848	-0.874	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	MIL @ CHC	5 - 2	MIL	3	blowout
2026-05-18	MIL @ CHC	9 - 3	MIL	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CHC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	34	9	5	0	3	1	9
Player finalized CHC	35	9	4	0	2	5	9
Player model fractional MIL	33.59	8.74	5.46	0.93	4.46	3.86	7.99
Player model fractional CHC	33.57	7.29	4.62	0.90	3.58	4.43	8.39
Simulation box MIL	36	9	6	2	6	8	6
Simulation box CHC	34	7	3	1	3	4	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Kyle Harrison	5	2	6	6	3	2.67	1.26	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.69	1.48	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1	1	2	1	1	4.56	1.28	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	0	0	0	3.69	1.15	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.16	1.24	True
Home CHC	Starter	Edward Cabrera	5.20	5	2	7	3	4.65	1.33	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	0	1	0	2	4.02	1.33	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1	0	1	0	1	3.20	1.27	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	1	1	2	2	5.60	1.35	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Hoby Milner	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.24	1.18	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Ryan Rolison	0	0	0	0	0	4.77	1.56	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.538	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.538	5.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.600	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.200	0.295	0.400
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.230	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.385	1.000	1.615	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.600	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.200	0.261	0.400
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	2.615	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.427	1.400	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.441	0.200	0.959	1.200
predicted_SO	1.308	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	2.000	-1.308	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.538	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.427	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.352	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.468	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	-0.004
predicted_H	1.225	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.000
predicted_SO	1.260	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.352	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.468	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.005
predicted_BB	0.230	0.003
predicted_H	1.276	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.003
predicted_R	0.450	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.015
predicted_SO	1.243	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 4.538

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.5417	0.3333	0.0417	0.0833	0.0000	0.2917
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	0.2391	0.2708	0.3478	0.2391	0.0217	0.0652	0.0435	0.3044
season	0.60	13	-	59.000	18.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	17.000	0.3051	0.3387	0.4407	0.3051	0.0169	0.0848	0.0508	0.2881

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.3410
predicted_AVG	0.2802
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	1.2160
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.4273
predicted_SO	1.1720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3850	0.2910	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5380	4.3410	4.4681	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2200	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.2160	1.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1130	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4820	0.4194	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4130	0.4175	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4270	0.4273	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.1720	1.2598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Christian Yelich (592885) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2836

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.941	5.000	0.059	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.200	-0.034	0.050
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.200	0.058	0.200
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.400	-0.213	-0.150
predicted_SO	1.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	3.000	-0.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.011
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.927	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.013
predicted_H	0.969	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.672	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.001
predicted_BB	0.344	0.004
predicted_H	1.009	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.168	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.002
predicted_R	0.721	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.537	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.475	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.184	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.941

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.6000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.5641	0.2564	0.0513	0.1282	0.1026	0.3077
season	0.60	17	-	67.000	19.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	21.000	0.2836	0.3425	0.4627	0.2836	0.0299	0.1343	0.0896	0.3134

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.9030
predicted_AVG	0.2564
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.4772
predicted_SO	1.1390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2660	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0430	0.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9410	3.9030	3.9271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2564	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3170	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0010	0.9686	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1700	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.6130	0.6721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5190	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4772	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.1390	1.2000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	592885
playerID	592885
playerName	Christian Yelich
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.070	5.000	0.930	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.200	-0.286	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.163	1.000	-1.163	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.200	-0.357	-0.200
predicted_R	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.628	0.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.200	-0.383	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.081	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.033
predicted_H	1.130	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.552	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.525	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.081	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.006
predicted_BB	0.415	0.005
predicted_H	1.177	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.013
predicted_R	0.592	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.011
predicted_SO	0.518	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3043	0.3043	0.3043	0.3044	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2821	0.3556	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0769	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.60	43	-	175.000	50.000	8.000	3.000	27.000	25.000	19.000	22.000	0.2857	0.3571	0.3829	0.2857	0.0171	0.1543	0.1086	0.1257

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0970
predicted_AVG	0.2828
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	1.1590
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3408
predicted_R	0.5100
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.3580
predicted_SO	0.5430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1420	0.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	4.0970	4.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2828	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.3630	0.4095	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1590	1.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3408	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.5100	0.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4820	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3580	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.5430	0.5247	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2919

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	4.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.750	0.208	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.093	3.000	0.907	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.800	0.187	-0.200
predicted_R	0.907	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.907	2.000	0.093	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	2.000	0.326	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	1.500	0.003	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.977	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	1.000	0.023	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.791	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.907	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.776	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.730	-0.061
predicted_H	1.024	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.911	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.585	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	1.001	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.006
predicted_BB	0.739	0.009
predicted_H	1.066	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.169	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.021
predicted_R	0.977	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.627	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.018
predicted_SO	0.988	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3636	0.4872	0.2821	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.60	43	-	161.000	47.000	10.000	1.000	7.000	29.000	39.000	34.000	42.000	0.2919	0.4133	0.4969	0.2919	0.0435	0.1801	0.2112	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8230
predicted_AVG	0.2766
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.3790
predicted_R	0.9170
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.4651
predicted_SO	1.0350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1820	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.8230	3.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2766	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7910	0.6420	0.7297	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0580	1.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1700	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3790	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9070	0.9170	0.9111	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6070	0.5852	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4651	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	1.0350	1.0008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2207

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.250	-0.221	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	-0.094	-0.050
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.513	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.775	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.046
predicted_H	0.791	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.291	0.004
predicted_H	0.824	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.003
predicted_R	0.491	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.521	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1750
season	0.60	39	-	145.000	32.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	19.000	13.000	20.000	0.2207	0.2893	0.3103	0.2207	0.0207	0.0897	0.0897	0.1379

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8600
predicted_AVG	0.2323
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.2766
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.3261
predicted_SO	0.5510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1770	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8600	3.7753	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2323	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2200	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8970	0.7914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2766	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4150	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4410	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3261	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5130	0.5510	0.5283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 36

All-history rows before 20260520: 36

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2993

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	5.000	-0.806	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.400	0.034	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.444	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	2.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.400	0.227	0.200
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.566	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.400	0.815	0.933
predicted_SO	0.889	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.566	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.825	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.029
predicted_H	1.169	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.395	-0.000
predicted_R	0.698	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.759	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.566	0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.421	0.005
predicted_H	1.218	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.009
predicted_R	0.749	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.813	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.530	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.883	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.318 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.7143	0.4286	0.0476	0.3333	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	16.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	0.4324	0.4878	0.7297	0.4324	0.0541	0.2432	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.60	36	-	137.000	41.000	9.000	7.000	27.000	26.000	16.000	32.000	0.2993	0.3725	0.5182	0.2993	0.0511	0.1971	0.1168	0.2336

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.3342
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	1.2870
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3945
predicted_R	0.6630
predicted_RBI	0.8310
predicted_SLG	0.5664
predicted_SO	0.9030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3360	0.2846	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.8530	3.8249	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3730	0.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2870	1.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1850	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3945	0.3948	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.6630	0.6983	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.8310	0.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5660	0.5664	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.9030	0.8946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 34

All-history rows before 20260520: 34

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2330

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.029	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.029	3.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.267	0.167
predicted_BB	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	1.000	1.294	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.164	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.252	0.333	0.248	0.167
predicted_SO	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.061	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	0.001
predicted_H	0.602	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.014	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.448	0.006
predicted_H	0.627	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.014	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.023
predicted_R	0.565	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.715	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2308	0.3750	0.2308	0.2308	0.0000	0.2308	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.3000
season	0.60	34	-	103.000	24.000	2.000	7.000	18.000	15.000	24.000	0.2330	0.3361	0.2524	0.2330	0.0680	0.1456	0.2330

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1110
predicted_AVG	0.2297
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3294
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.1800
predicted_SLG	0.2696
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0590	0.0590	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0290	3.1110	3.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.4440	0.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7150	0.6024	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0200	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3294	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.5230	0.5267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1800	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2696	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.7520	0.7240	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 34

All-history rows before 20260520: 34

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.250	-0.237	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.588	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	1.000	1.412	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.400	0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.250	-0.373	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.412	0.000	-0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.006
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.478	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	-0.051
predicted_H	0.797	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.466	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.326	-0.086

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.478	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.544	0.007
predicted_H	0.830	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.009
predicted_R	0.499	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.309	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2564	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.3714
season	0.60	34	-	118.000	28.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	24.000	17.000	20.000	48.000	0.2373	0.3500	0.3729	0.2373	0.0169	0.2034	0.1695	0.4068

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.4890
predicted_AVG	0.2448
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3331
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.5650
predicted_SLG	0.4136
predicted_SO	1.1960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2510	0.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.4890	3.4782	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2448	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.4590	0.5366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8540	0.7974	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1010	0.0944	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3331	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4140	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5650	0.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4136	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4120	1.1960	1.3260	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 30

All-history rows before 20260520: 30

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	-0.211	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.500	-0.094	-0.300
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.333	-0.263	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.193	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	0.021
predicted_H	0.685	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.193	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.426	0.006
predicted_H	0.713	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.010
predicted_R	0.416	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.3571	0.4737	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857	0.0714
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2258	0.2973	0.3871	0.2258	0.0323	0.1613	0.1290	0.1613
season	0.60	30	-	95.000	20.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	12.000	12.000	20.000	0.2105	0.2936	0.2632	0.2105	0.0105	0.1158	0.1263	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2350
predicted_AVG	0.2432
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.7870
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3250
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.3709
predicted_SO	0.5950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1340	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.2350	3.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4540	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7870	0.6846	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0910	0.0781	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3250	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3690	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4180	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3709	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.5950	0.6391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Kyle Harrison (690986) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	0.000	1.375	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.125	0.000	0.875	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.125	5.000	1.875	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.775	5.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	7.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.000	4.000	21.000	9.000	33.000	1.000	1.5000	1.2500	0.1667	0.8750	0.3750	1.3750	0.0417
last_10	0.35	8	38.200	9.000	33.000	13.000	48.000	3.000	2.0948	1.1897	0.2328	0.8535	0.3362	1.2414	0.0776
season	0.20	8	38.200	9.000	33.000	13.000	48.000	3.000	2.0948	1.1897	0.2328	0.8535	0.3362	1.2414	0.0776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7670
predicted_ER	1.4220
predicted_ERA	2.6697
predicted_H	4.2940
predicted_HR	0.3970
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.6890
predicted_WHIP	1.2642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7670	2.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.4220	2.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6697	2.6697	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.2940	5.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3970	0.7060	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6890	4.8234	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2642	1.2642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	6
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.09
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	690986
playerID	690986
playerName	Kyle Harrison
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.409	2.000	-0.409	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.227	4.000	-1.227	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.200	0.200	-0.100	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.091	2.000	-2.091	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	4.0500	1.8000	0.4500	1.5000	0.3000	1.6500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	4.000	14.000	8.000	22.000	0.000	2.4545	1.5000	0.2727	0.9546	0.5454	1.5000	0.0000
season	0.20	22	29.200	9.000	27.000	16.000	46.000	1.000	2.7303	1.4494	0.3034	0.9101	0.5393	1.5506	0.0337

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5440
predicted_ER	0.5470
predicted_ERA	3.6920
predicted_H	1.4340
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.7210
predicted_WHIP	1.4837

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5440	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5470	0.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6920	3.6920	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4340	1.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.7210	1.8728	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4837	1.4837	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.73
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.835	1.000	0.165	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.950	1.000	1.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	4.8214	1.0714	0.5357	0.6429	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
season	0.20	20	18.100	9.000	14.000	7.000	19.000	2.000	4.4182	1.1455	0.4909	0.7636	0.3818	1.0364	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4660
predicted_ER	0.5070
predicted_ERA	4.5596
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.2824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4660	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5070	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5596	4.5596	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8170	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9860	1.5889	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2824	1.2824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	2.000	-1.222	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.5000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	17	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	22.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	1.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_ER	0.4100
predicted_ERA	3.6934
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.1521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3190	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4100	0.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6934	3.6934	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8330	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1830	0.4705	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1521	1.1521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.842	1.000	-0.842	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.100	-0.763	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.263	2.000	-1.263	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	0.000	2.2500	1.1667	0.2500	0.3333	0.8333	1.0833	0.0000
season	0.20	19	21.100	4.000	10.000	16.000	24.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_ER	0.3060
predicted_ERA	3.1593
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.2446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5240	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3060	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1593	3.1593	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5620	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0650	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8610	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2446	1.2446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: CHC

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2604

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.085	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.085	3.000	0.915	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.667	-0.060	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.064	2.000	-0.064	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.750	-0.147	-0.550
predicted_R	0.468	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.468	0.000	0.532	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.638	1.000	-0.638	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.667	-0.180	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.085	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.468	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.362	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.066	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	0.041
predicted_H	0.984	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.466	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.371	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.066	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.530	-0.001
predicted_H	0.952	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.022
predicted_R	0.441	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.436	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.372	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.085

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	0.2381	0.3846	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.2381	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	0.2051	0.3261	0.2308	0.2051	0.0000	0.0513	0.1795	0.0769
season	0.60	47	-	192.000	50.000	11.000	4.000	30.000	22.000	23.000	17.000	0.2604	0.3468	0.3802	0.2604	0.0208	0.1562	0.1198	0.0885

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0390
predicted_AVG	0.2448
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3449
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.3308
predicted_SO	0.3850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.1640	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0850	4.0390	4.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2448	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.5890	0.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9890	0.9837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3449	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4680	0.4640	0.4663	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4640	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3308	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3620	0.3850	0.3715	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2408

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	4.064	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.064	4.000	0.936	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	-0.041	0.200
predicted_BB	0.511	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.979	0.000	0.021	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.127	0.200
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	-0.146	0.200
predicted_SO	0.809	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.809	2.000	-0.809	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	4.064	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.511	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.809	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.006
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.092	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.041
predicted_H	1.020	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.505	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.092	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.001
predicted_H	0.988	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.004
predicted_R	0.478	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.320	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.854	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.064

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3182	0.2727	0.0000	0.0909	0.0909	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	12.000	0.2791	0.3111	0.3721	0.2791	0.0233	0.0698	0.0465	0.2791
season	0.60	47	-	191.000	46.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	21.000	24.000	38.000	0.2408	0.3272	0.3455	0.2408	0.0209	0.0785	0.1257	0.1989

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1320
predicted_AVG	0.2536
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3228
predicted_R	0.5880
predicted_RBI	0.3510
predicted_SLG	0.3516
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1420	0.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0640	4.1320	4.0922	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2536	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5110	0.4110	0.4696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0480	1.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3228	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.5880	0.5054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3510	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3516	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8090	0.9140	0.8525	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2184

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.702	3.000	-0.702	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.115	0.333
predicted_BB	0.766	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.766	1.000	0.234	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.809	0.000	0.191	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	0.142	0.250
predicted_R	0.745	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.745	0.000	0.255	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.437	0.000	-0.103	0.333
predicted_SO	1.447	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.447	2.000	0.553	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.702	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.766	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.745	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	1.447	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.707	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.734	-0.032
predicted_H	0.662	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.669	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	1.492	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.733	-0.001
predicted_H	0.641	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.005
predicted_R	0.633	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.327	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.494	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	19.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.2059	0.1177	0.0294	0.0588	0.2353	0.5588
season	0.60	47	-	174.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	35.000	36.000	68.000	0.2184	0.3585	0.4368	0.2184	0.0575	0.1149	0.2069	0.3908

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.1832
predicted_BB	0.6890
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3144
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3323
predicted_SO	1.5550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0890	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7020	3.7140	3.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1832	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7660	0.6890	0.7341	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6800	0.6624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1460	0.1425	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3144	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7450	0.5620	0.6693	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3530	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3323	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4470	1.5550	1.4917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 30

All-history rows before 20260520: 30

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2973

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.500	-0.297	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.433	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	2.000	-1.100	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	-0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.500	-0.378	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.733	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	2.000	1.267	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.689	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.035
predicted_H	1.040	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.001
predicted_H	1.007	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.020
predicted_R	0.454	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.745	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.5000	0.3889	0.0000	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.3429	0.2857	0.0000	0.1714	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.60	30	-	111.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	15.000	13.000	22.000	0.2973	0.3760	0.3784	0.2973	0.0090	0.1171	0.1171	0.1982

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6710
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3641
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.3958
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2300	0.2118	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.6710	3.6886	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.3440	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1010	1.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3641	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4490	0.4799	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5300	0.4997	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3958	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.7610	0.7440	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2316

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.104	0.000	-0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	4.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.018	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	1.000	0.146	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.104	0.000	-0.104	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.060	0.000
predicted_R	0.542	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.542	1.000	-0.542	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.250	-0.117	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.042	2.000	-0.042	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.542	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	1.042	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.034	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.681	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	-0.002
predicted_H	0.639	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.163	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.504	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	1.054	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.309	-0.001
predicted_H	0.618	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.060
predicted_R	0.476	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.352	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.040
predicted_SO	1.056	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.2059	0.1177	0.0294	0.0882	0.1177	0.2941
season	0.60	48	-	177.000	41.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	20.000	26.000	15.000	50.000	0.2316	0.3096	0.3672	0.2316	0.0283	0.1130	0.0848	0.2825

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0230
predicted_AB	3.6720
predicted_AVG	0.2007
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HBP	0.1630
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.2923
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.3341
predicted_SO	1.0710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1040	0.0770	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0230	0.0342	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.6720	3.6814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2007	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3070	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7370	0.6387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1630	0.1630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1220	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2923	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5420	0.4490	0.5037	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4340	0.3728	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3341	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0420	1.0710	1.0539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	1.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.238	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.238	3.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.333	-0.096	-0.083
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.667	-0.412	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.238	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.286	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	0.004
predicted_H	0.744	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.569	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.336	-0.001
predicted_H	0.720	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.134	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.058
predicted_R	0.538	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.793	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	0.2581	0.3784	0.4839	0.2581	0.0645	0.1613	0.1290	0.1935
season	0.60	21	-	68.000	17.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	12.000	7.000	17.000	0.2500	0.3462	0.4118	0.2500	0.0441	0.1323	0.1029	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3690
predicted_AVG	0.2586
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3503
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.4397
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1340	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2380	3.3690	3.2863	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2586	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3430	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8710	0.7441	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1560	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5650	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4800	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4397	0.4399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.7600	0.7916	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	4.000	0.565	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.060	0.000
predicted_BB	0.522	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.652	1.000	0.348	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.250	-0.046	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.250	-0.104	0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	2.000	0.130	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.522	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.025
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.500	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.466	-0.056
predicted_H	0.631	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.636	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.893	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.001
predicted_H	0.611	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.002
predicted_R	0.601	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.895	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.3143	0.1714	0.0286	0.0571	0.0571	0.2571
season	0.60	46	-	158.000	30.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	25.000	30.000	24.000	40.000	0.1899	0.2957	0.3544	0.1899	0.0443	0.1582	0.1519	0.2532

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.1960
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.2734
predicted_R	0.6120
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3612
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.1250	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	3.5940	3.5001	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1960	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5220	0.3850	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7040	0.6308	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1470	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2734	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.6120	0.6356	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4540	0.4044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3612	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.9270	0.8933	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 33

All-history rows before 20260520: 33

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	-0.848	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.391	0.167
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	0.939	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	0.378	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	1.000	2.455	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.500	1.194	1.167
predicted_SO	1.152	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.152	2.000	-1.152	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.152	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.892	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	-0.055
predicted_H	0.995	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.489	-0.001
predicted_H	0.964	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.006
predicted_R	0.593	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.190	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.3636	0.3182	0.0000	0.0909	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	0.2000	0.2558	0.2250	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0750	0.4000
season	0.60	33	-	127.000	35.000	4.000	7.000	18.000	22.000	18.000	38.000	0.2756	0.3716	0.4724	0.2756	0.0551	0.1417	0.1417	0.2992

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9570
predicted_AVG	0.2648
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3372
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4003
predicted_SO	1.2430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1400	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.9570	3.8917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4080	0.4901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0480	0.9953	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1300	0.1240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3372	0.3371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5680	0.6273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4560	0.4344	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4003	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1520	1.2430	1.1885	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2312

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.681	4.000	0.319	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.681	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.681	0.000	-0.681	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.851	0.000	-0.851	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.681	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.681	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.426	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.029
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.654	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.703	0.021
predicted_H	0.815	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.987	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.654	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.701	-0.001
predicted_H	0.789	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.037
predicted_R	0.408	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.490	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.989	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.2778	0.4583	0.6111	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.2778	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	0.2424	0.4186	0.4242	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.2727	0.3333
season	0.60	47	-	173.000	40.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	26.000	20.000	32.000	47.000	0.2312	0.3571	0.3757	0.2312	0.0231	0.1503	0.1850	0.2717

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.2430
predicted_BB	0.7330
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.3791
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.5590
predicted_SLG	0.4280
predicted_SO	0.9680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.3050	0.2634	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6810	3.6150	3.6537	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6810	0.7330	0.7025	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8780	0.8147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1054	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3791	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4260	0.4410	0.4322	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5590	0.5185	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4280	0.4280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9680	0.9868	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Edward Cabrera (665795) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	3.000	2.444	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.444	3.000	1.556	4.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.511	4.200	-0.311	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	2.000	-3.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	17.000	31.000	7.000	28.000	8.000	5.4000	1.3412	0.6000	1.0941	0.2471	0.9882	0.2823
last_10	0.35	9	51.000	23.000	49.000	18.000	45.000	8.000	4.0588	1.3137	0.4510	0.9608	0.3529	0.8823	0.1569
season	0.20	9	51.000	23.000	49.000	18.000	45.000	8.000	4.0588	1.3137	0.4510	0.9608	0.3529	0.8823	0.1569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8130
predicted_ER	2.9310
predicted_ERA	4.6545
predicted_H	5.7010
predicted_HR	1.1170
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.3810
predicted_WHIP	1.3260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8130	2.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.9310	3.9673	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6545	4.6545	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.7010	6.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.1170	1.0584	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	5.3810	3.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3260	1.3260	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	7
R	5
ER	5
BB	3
SO	2
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	104

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.06
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	665795
playerID	665795
playerName	Edward Cabrera
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	1.700	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	4.0195
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.3336

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3370	1.4368	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4250	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0195	4.0195	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9310	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1390	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9180	0.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3336	1.3336	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.048	2.000	-1.048	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	1.000	0.138	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	0.000	-0.095	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	2.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.5882	0.9706	0.1765	0.7059	0.2647	1.1471	0.0882
season	0.20	21	20.200	7.000	22.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.0484	1.4516	0.3387	1.0645	0.3871	1.1129	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1962
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0330
predicted_WHIP	1.2739

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3220	0.7167	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.1483	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1962	3.1962	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9520	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0330	1.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2739	1.2739	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 15

All-history rows before 20260520: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.067	0.000	0.933	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.133	1.000	-0.133	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.0000	1.4000	1.0000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	6.7500	1.2857	0.7500	1.0714	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
season	0.20	15	13.100	13.000	16.000	6.000	17.000	3.000	8.7750	1.6500	0.9750	1.2000	0.4500	1.2750	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_ER	0.6220
predicted_ERA	5.5975
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.3495

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3360	1.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6220	0.8588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5975	5.5975	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0140	1.6316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1890	0.6970	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0540	1.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3495	1.3495	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.682	1.000	-0.682	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.836	1.100	-0.736	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.409	2.000	0.591	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.6000	0.4000	0.6000	0.1000
season	0.20	21	21.200	5.000	15.000	6.000	9.000	2.000	2.0769	0.9692	0.2308	0.6923	0.2769	0.4154	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_ER	0.2310
predicted_ERA	3.2385
predicted_H	0.5220
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5100
predicted_WHIP	1.1802

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2350	0.0994	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2310	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2385	3.2385	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5220	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0258	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5100	1.3701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1802	1.1802	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ryan Rolison (669020) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 11

All-history rows before 20260520: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	1.091	1.000	-1.091	-1.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	0.100	-0.973	-0.100
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	1.182	0.000	-1.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	7.3636	2.7273	0.8182	1.6364	1.0909	0.8182	0.5454
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	11.000	6.000	13.000	3.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.9706	0.5294	1.1471	0.2647
season	0.20	11	12.100	6.000	12.000	6.000	13.000	3.000	4.3784	1.4595	0.4865	0.9730	0.4865	1.0540	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.2670
predicted_ERA	4.7701
predicted_H	0.5270
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4840
predicted_WHIP	1.5563

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.0938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2670	0.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7701	4.7701	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5270	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4840	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5563	1.5563	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	2
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	669020
playerID	669020
playerName	Ryan Rolison
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260520_NYM@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "NYM 6 - 7 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 8, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 8 - 5 WAS", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": true, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYM 6 - 7 WAS	WAS	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYM 8 - 5 WAS	NYM	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYM	6-4	0.600	6.10	4.50	16	1L	hot	average
Home WAS	5-5	0.500	6.30	7.30	-10	1W	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYM	21-27	0.438	-10	-0.208	True
Home WAS	24-25	0.490	-19	-0.388	True
Signal	-	-	-0.179	-0.101	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	NYM @ WAS	6 - 9	WAS	3	blowout
2026-05-18	NYM @ WAS	16 - 7	NYM	9	blowout
2026-04-30	WAS @ NYM	5 - 4	WAS	1	close
2026-04-29	WAS @ NYM	14 - 2	WAS	12	blowout
2026-04-28	WAS @ NYM	0 - 8	NYM	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYM	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	7	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYM	33	9	4	0	5	2	8
Player finalized WAS	33	9	5	0	6	2	9
Player model fractional NYM	31.86	7.74	4.49	1.07	4.27	3.25	7.14
Player model fractional WAS	32.99	7.99	4.87	1.20	4.63	3.08	6.68
Simulation box NYM	33	8	8	1	8	5	8
Simulation box WAS	33	7	5	2	5	3	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYM	Starter	Zach Pop	3	2	4	2	2	3.77	1.24	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	2	0	0	0	0	3.11	1.42	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	2	0	0	1	1	3.01	1.07	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	2	3	0	4	0	2.90	1.29	True
Home WAS	Starter	Zack Littell	4	6	6	7	3	5.09	1.35	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.18	1.20	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1.10	2	1	1	2	4.40	1.43	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1	0	0	0	0	3.51	1.43	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.86	1.52	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYM

Hayden Senger (663584) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.722	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.471	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.139	0.139

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.722	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.000
predicted_H	0.475	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.188	-0.074
predicted_R	0.081	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.086
predicted_SO	0.139	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total RBI	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	5.000	1.000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	2	-	5.000	1.000	0.2000
season	0.60	2	-	5.000	1.000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2094
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2617
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3397
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1480	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6140	2.7220	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2094	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2300	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.7570	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1000	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2617	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4030	0.0803	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.4910	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3397	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6950	0.1385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663584
playerID	663584
playerName	Hayden Senger
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 7

All-history rows before 20260520: 7

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	6.000	-1.286	-4.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.333	-0.304	-0.333
predicted_BB	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.467	0.333	0.033	0.167
predicted_R	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.333	-0.522	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.143	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.108	-0.035
predicted_AB	3.398	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.852	-0.148
predicted_H	0.838	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.776	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.108	0.000
predicted_AB	3.398	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.849	-0.003
predicted_H	0.846	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.027
predicted_R	0.787	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.961	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	7	-	23.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.3043	0.4667	0.5217	0.3044	0.0435	0.1739	0.3044	0.3044
season	0.60	7	-	23.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.3043	0.4667	0.5217	0.3044	0.0435	0.1739	0.3044	0.3044

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.2847
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3724
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.4513
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0870	0.0264	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1430	0.0290	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6550	3.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5120	0.8518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.0410	0.8384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1540	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3724	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.5920	0.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4640	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4513	0.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8590	0.9572	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.083	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.083	4.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.500	0.176	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	2.000	1.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.104	2.000	0.896	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.500	0.123	-0.100
predicted_R	0.479	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.479	2.000	0.521	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.521	4.000	1.479	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.332	2.000	0.668	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.708	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	0.000	1.292	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.479	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.085	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	0.026
predicted_H	0.930	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.221	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.711	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.085	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.001
predicted_H	0.939	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.223	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.007
predicted_R	0.553	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.721	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.662	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.455)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 4.083

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.7273	0.2727	0.1364	0.3182	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.4500	0.2000	0.0750	0.2250	0.1500	0.1000
season	0.60	48	-	196.000	44.000	6.000	5.000	25.000	23.000	15.000	34.000	0.2245	0.2770	0.3316	0.2245	0.0255	0.1275	0.0765	0.1735

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0890
predicted_AVG	0.2311
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.2952
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.7270
predicted_SLG	0.4297
predicted_SO	0.5910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1400	0.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0830	4.0890	4.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2311	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3750	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9450	0.9303	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2230	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4790	0.6390	0.5452	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7270	0.7112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4297	0.4299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.5910	0.6596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2869

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.500	0.046	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.094	2.000	-0.094	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	1.000	-0.219	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	0.215	0.100
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	2.000	0.406	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	1.250	0.158	-0.583
predicted_SO	0.719	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.810	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.631	0.006
predicted_H	1.144	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.242	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.647	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.629	-0.002
predicted_H	1.155	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.244	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.402	-0.001
predicted_R	0.656	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.004
predicted_SO	0.748	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.4211	0.5417	0.7368	0.4210	0.1053	0.2105	0.2632	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4222	0.5526	0.3158	0.0790	0.1842	0.1842	0.1842
season	0.60	32	-	122.000	35.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	17.000	19.000	20.000	23.000	0.2869	0.3846	0.5082	0.2869	0.0574	0.1393	0.1639	0.1885

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.3065
predicted_BB	0.6400
predicted_H	1.1660
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_OBP	0.4030
predicted_R	0.7280
predicted_RBI	0.5940
predicted_SLG	0.5339
predicted_SO	0.7850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0930	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0258	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.8060	3.8096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.6400	0.6310	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1660	1.1444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2460	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4030	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.7280	0.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5940	0.5796	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5339	0.5340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.7850	0.7454	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2336

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	1.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	1.297	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.166	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	2.000	1.135	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.500	0.126	-0.100
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	2.405	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.750	-0.016	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.811	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.789	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.173	-0.016
predicted_H	0.860	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.000
predicted_R	0.400	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.001
predicted_H	0.868	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.006
predicted_R	0.405	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.793	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.3182	0.2273	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2558	0.3571	0.2381	0.0238	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
season	0.60	37	-	137.000	32.000	7.000	6.000	22.000	15.000	7.000	30.000	0.2336	0.2740	0.4161	0.2336	0.0438	0.1606	0.0511	0.2190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9180
predicted_AVG	0.2351
predicted_BB	0.1490
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.2686
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.5780
predicted_SLG	0.3867
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2220	0.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.9180	3.7890	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.1490	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9210	0.8604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1220	0.1148	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2686	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3920	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5780	0.5432	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3867	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.7580	0.7898	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2409

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.092	0.333
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	0.000	0.132	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	-0.050	0.250
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.039	0.333
predicted_SO	1.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.002
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.684	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.008
predicted_H	0.861	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.549	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.181	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.001
predicted_H	0.869	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.020
predicted_R	0.480	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.186	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.2381	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4750	0.2750	0.0500	0.2000	0.0750	0.3500
season	0.60	38	-	137.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	18.000	11.000	44.000	0.2409	0.3000	0.3723	0.2409	0.0219	0.1387	0.0803	0.3212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3131
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.6210
predicted_SLG	0.4107
predicted_SO	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1890	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.8030	3.6844	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3080	0.2966	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9680	0.8614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1240	0.1096	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3131	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.4720	0.4732	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6210	0.5486	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4107	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.2160	1.1813	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	2.737	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.737	2.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.064	0.333
predicted_BB	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	0.133	0.500
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	-0.147	0.333
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	2.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.003
predicted_AB	2.835	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	0.012
predicted_H	0.585	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	1.040	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	2.835	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.001
predicted_H	0.590	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.023
predicted_R	0.399	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.044	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	25.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.1600	0.3000	0.2400	0.1600	0.0000	0.0000	0.1600	0.4000
season	0.60	19	-	52.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	20.000	0.2692	0.3667	0.4808	0.2692	0.0385	0.1154	0.1346	0.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2216
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.6680
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3240
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.3675
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1180	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0430	0.0495	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7370	3.0150	2.8350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2216	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4020	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6680	0.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0790	0.0667	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.4420	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2650	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3675	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	1.0170	1.0403	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	5.000	0.275	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.600	-0.268	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.600	-0.327	-0.600
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	2.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	0.575	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.600	-0.376	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.863	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.018
predicted_H	1.183	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.704	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.483	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.863	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.001
predicted_H	1.194	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.063	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.006
predicted_R	0.714	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.746	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4615	0.5000	0.4167	0.0000	0.1667	0.0417	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	18.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	6.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.4348	0.3913	0.0000	0.1304	0.0217	0.1304
season	0.60	40	-	149.000	40.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	25.000	12.000	30.000	0.2685	0.3272	0.3758	0.2685	0.0201	0.1141	0.0805	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0660
predicted_AVG	0.3105
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	1.2620
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.8210
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.4099
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2140	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	4.0660	3.8629	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3105	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2560	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2620	1.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3616	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.8210	0.7042	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5180	0.4835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4099	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7320	0.7427	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2299

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.333	-0.230	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.250	-0.283	-0.250
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.104	0.000	-0.104	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.333	-0.322	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.271	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.674	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.002
predicted_H	0.794	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.001
predicted_H	0.801	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.010
predicted_R	0.418	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.857	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2609	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2791	0.3421	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.60	48	-	174.000	40.000	7.000	3.000	18.000	18.000	13.000	39.000	0.2299	0.2827	0.3218	0.2299	0.0172	0.1035	0.0747	0.2241

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.2365
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2814
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3317
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1520	0.1485	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.7440	3.6738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2365	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2710	0.2660	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8860	0.7940	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2814	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4660	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4790	0.4324	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3317	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.9140	0.8539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Zach Pop (647315) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 0

All-history rows before 20260520: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	0.9375
last_10	0.35	7	7.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.6818	0.4091	0.8182
season	0.20	7	7.100	3.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	3.6818	1.0909	0.4091	0.6818	0.4091	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1530
predicted_ER	1.3920
predicted_ERA	3.7701
predicted_H	2.9690
predicted_HR	0.3360
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.1350
predicted_WHIP	1.2401

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.1530	1.7266	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3920	1.8038	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7701	3.7701	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.9690	2.3127	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3360	0.7857	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	3.1000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.1350	3.7208	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2401	1.2401	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	14
Pitches	52

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	0.200	1.235	1.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.050	0.000	-1.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	2.0769	2.0769	0.2308	1.3846	0.6923	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.7241	0.4138	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	13.000	8.000	21.000	1.000	1.4727	1.1455	0.1636	0.7091	0.4364	1.1455	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	3.1084
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.4205

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4480	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3450	0.1399	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1084	3.1084	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9730	0.3945	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9470	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4205	1.4205	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	1.194	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.4286	0.2143	1.3929	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.200	6.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	1.000	3.4468	1.2128	0.3830	0.8936	0.3191	1.5319	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	3.0074
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1140
predicted_WHIP	1.0657

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3600	0.7508	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0074	3.0074	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7050	0.8851	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1140	0.4338	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0657	1.0657	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	2.579	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.842	1.000	3.158	3.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.984	1.000	1.016	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	2.000	-1.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3333	0.0000	0.8333	0.5000	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	1.5429	1.2000	0.1714	0.8571	0.3429	1.4571	0.0857
season	0.20	19	20.100	8.000	16.000	7.000	21.000	2.000	3.5410	1.1311	0.3934	0.7869	0.3443	1.0328	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_ER	0.2420
predicted_ERA	2.9033
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8370
predicted_WHIP	1.2857

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2960	0.1232	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2420	1.8523	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9033	2.9033	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.6690	2.6138	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0710	0.6134	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8370	0.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2857	1.2857	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	10
Pitches	36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: WAS

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2769

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.8000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	3.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	-0.027	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	1.000	0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.500	0.003	-0.100
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.333	-0.008	0.167
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.592	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.623	0.012
predicted_H	0.956	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.000
predicted_R	0.717	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.685	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.592	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.626	0.003
predicted_H	0.960	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.119	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.019
predicted_R	0.720	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.525	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.456	0.003
predicted_SO	0.682	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2667	0.5000	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	7.000	5.000	0.3143	0.4545	0.5143	0.3143	0.0286	0.1429	0.2000	0.1429
season	0.60	18	-	65.000	18.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	13.000	11.000	12.000	0.2769	0.3974	0.5077	0.2769	0.0461	0.1692	0.1692	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5590
predicted_AVG	0.2718
predicted_BB	0.6430
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3949
predicted_R	0.7070
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.4525
predicted_SO	0.7170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2830	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.5590	3.5918	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2718	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.6430	0.6228	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9670	0.9563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1180	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3949	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.7070	0.7165	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5270	0.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4525	0.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7170	0.6854	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.723	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.723	2.000	-0.723	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.085	1.000	-0.085	-1.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.106	0.000	-1.106	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.500	-0.388	-0.500
predicted_R	0.638	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	1.000	0.362	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.830	0.000	0.170	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.872	1.000	0.128	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.723	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.872	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.039
predicted_3B	0.025	0.004
predicted_AB	3.811	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.034
predicted_H	1.092	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.666	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.652	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.415	0.002
predicted_H	1.096	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.134	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.011
predicted_R	0.669	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.655	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.919	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3600	0.4545	0.3182	0.0000	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	0.3095	0.3617	0.4762	0.3095	0.0000	0.1191	0.0714	0.3095
season	0.60	47	-	175.000	52.000	11.000	1.000	9.000	39.000	30.000	21.000	41.000	0.2971	0.3883	0.5257	0.2971	0.0514	0.2229	0.1200	0.2343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3290
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.9350
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	1.1660
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3682
predicted_R	0.7050
predicted_RBI	0.6970
predicted_SLG	0.4882
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.3290	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0300	0.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7230	3.9350	3.8105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.3650	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1660	1.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1220	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3682	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.7050	0.6657	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6970	0.6518	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4882	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8720	0.9950	0.9228	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2629

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.042	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.042	4.000	-1.042	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.354	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.354	0.000	0.646	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	1.000	-1.062	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_R	0.646	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.646	1.000	-0.646	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.521	0.000	-0.521	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.250	-0.433	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.813	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.042	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.354	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.646	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.813	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.089	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.031
predicted_H	1.017	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.089	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.324	0.002
predicted_H	1.021	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.176	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.011
predicted_R	0.656	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.824	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 4.042

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.4348	0.2609	0.0435	0.1304	0.0435	0.2174
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	0.3256	0.3261	0.6744	0.3256	0.0930	0.2558	0.0233	0.1860
season	0.60	48	-	194.000	51.000	12.000	7.000	25.000	31.000	17.000	39.000	0.2629	0.3224	0.4330	0.2629	0.0361	0.1289	0.0876	0.2010

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1550
predicted_AVG	0.2713
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	1.1270
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3156
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.6270
predicted_SLG	0.4711
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2420	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0420	4.1550	4.0888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2713	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3540	0.2780	0.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1270	1.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1950	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3156	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6460	0.6610	0.6522	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6270	0.5643	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4711	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8130	0.8480	0.8275	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	5.000	1.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.600	0.141	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.816	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	1.000	1.735	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.424	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.600	0.001	-0.200
predicted_R	0.878	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.878	2.000	0.122	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	4.000	1.306	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.570	1.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.534	1.200	1.066	0.400
predicted_SO	1.449	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.449	0.000	-1.449	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.816	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.424	-
predicted_R	0.878	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.570	-
predicted_SO	1.449	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.905	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.760	-0.056
predicted_H	1.181	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.236	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.424	-0.000
predicted_R	0.903	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.697	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.570	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	-0.084

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.905	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.764	0.003
predicted_H	1.185	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.116	0.000
predicted_HR	0.238	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.007
predicted_R	0.908	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.558	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.359	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.4545	0.5385	0.6818	0.4546	0.0454	0.2273	0.1364	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	14.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	11.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.6750	0.3500	0.0750	0.1750	0.1500	0.2750
season	0.60	49	-	189.000	49.000	13.000	13.000	34.000	43.000	40.000	71.000	0.2593	0.3991	0.5344	0.2593	0.0688	0.1799	0.2116	0.3757

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9720
predicted_AVG	0.3082
predicted_BB	0.6820
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.4236
predicted_R	0.9390
predicted_RBI	0.7200
predicted_SLG	0.5697
predicted_SO	1.2480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3010	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.9720	3.9049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8160	0.6820	0.7602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2240	1.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2450	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4240	0.4236	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8780	0.9390	0.9034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7200	0.6967	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5700	0.5697	0.5699	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4490	1.2480	1.3653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	2.000	0.600	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.015	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.080	1.000	-0.080	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.500	-0.006	-0.250
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.000	0.006	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.080	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.542	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.402	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.483	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	0.026
predicted_H	0.769	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.723	0.093
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.402	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.106	0.001
predicted_H	0.772	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.172	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.042
predicted_R	0.481	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.727	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.056
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3333	0.7895	0.3158	0.1053	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	0.2895	0.3000	0.6842	0.2895	0.0790	0.3158	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.60	25	-	85.000	20.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	11.000	2.000	15.000	0.2353	0.2556	0.4941	0.2353	0.0471	0.2235	0.0235	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4060
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.2578
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.2863
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.8770
predicted_SLG	0.5425
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.4060	0.4023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6200	3.4829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0800	0.1480	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.9330	0.7691	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.2060	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2863	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.5430	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.8770	0.7231	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5420	0.5425	0.5422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6900	0.6339	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	2.000	-0.756	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.500	-0.221	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.220	1.000	0.780	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.667	-0.023	-0.417
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	-0.512	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	1.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	2.000	-0.344	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.683	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	1.317	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.220	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.717	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.030
predicted_H	0.792	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.251	0.001
predicted_H	0.795	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.191	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.035
predicted_R	0.556	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.529	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.628	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4571	0.2000	0.0857	0.1714	0.1143	0.0857
season	0.60	41	-	154.000	34.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	9.000	28.000	0.2208	0.2727	0.3442	0.2208	0.0325	0.1299	0.0584	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6590
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.2985
predicted_R	0.6140
predicted_RBI	0.5640
predicted_SLG	0.4226
predicted_SO	0.5540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0750	0.0887	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.6590	3.7167	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2200	0.2940	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8540	0.7921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2040	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2985	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6140	0.5533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5640	0.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4226	0.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.5540	0.6308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Andrés Chaparro (665953) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 3

All-history rows before 20260520: 3

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.028	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.417	0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.139	0.139
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.729	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.139	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.732	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.023	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.042
predicted_R	0.362	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.023
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222
season	0.60	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6160
predicted_AVG	0.2392
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3818
predicted_SO	0.8090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2260	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6160	3.1386	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2060	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8650	0.7294	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0900	0.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4550	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3480	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3818	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8090	0.6990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260425_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	665953
playerID	665953
playerName	Andrés Chaparro
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Dylan Crews (686611) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.048
predicted_H	0.899	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.145	0.145

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.902	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.062
predicted_R	0.085	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.065
predicted_SO	0.145	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.60	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2450
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.3791
predicted_SO	0.7570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8240	3.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2450	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9370	0.8990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4390	0.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4220	0.4042	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3791	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7570	0.1453	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686611
playerID	686611
playerName	Dylan Crews
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2015

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.268	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.268	4.000	-0.268	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.500	0.132	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.659	2.000	0.341	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.188	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	1.000	-0.439	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.224	0.500	0.109	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	1.000	-0.780	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.268	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.439	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.006
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.287	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.012
predicted_H	0.532	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.224	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.287	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.502	0.002
predicted_H	0.533	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.013	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.015
predicted_R	0.432	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.195	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	0.1379	0.2778	0.1379	0.1379	0.0345	0.2069	0.3103
season	0.60	41	-	134.000	27.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	32.000	0.2015	0.3121	0.2239	0.2015	0.1045	0.1567	0.2388

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.3140
predicted_AVG	0.1836
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2882
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.2193
predicted_SO	0.8210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0240	0.0380	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2680	3.3140	3.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1836	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.4820	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6080	0.5316	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0170	0.0128	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4390	0.4170	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2600	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2193	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.8210	0.7965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Zack Littell (641793) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	2.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_ER	3.111	0.000	2.889	6.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.222	2.000	1.778	5.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.489	5.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	2.222	3.000	3.778	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.100	13.000	20.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	5.2388	1.2985	0.5821	0.8955	0.4030	0.2687	0.3134
last_10	0.35	9	41.100	28.000	47.000	15.000	20.000	14.000	6.0968	1.5000	0.6774	1.1371	0.3629	0.4839	0.3387
season	0.20	9	41.100	28.000	47.000	15.000	20.000	14.000	6.0968	1.5000	0.6774	1.1371	0.3629	0.4839	0.3387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7420
predicted_ER	2.5660
predicted_ERA	5.0931
predicted_H	4.4020
predicted_HR	1.1530
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	2.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.3550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7420	2.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.5660	4.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0931	5.0931	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.4020	5.7033	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.1530	0.5755	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	2.5670	4.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3550	1.3550	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	7
R	6
ER	6
BB	3
SO	6
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.10
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	641793
playerID	641793
playerName	Zack Littell
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 15

All-history rows before 20260520: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.933	2.000	-1.933	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.947	3.000	-0.847	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.733	3.000	-1.733	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.100	2.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	0.9677	0.1935	1.1613	0.0968
last_10	0.35	10	20.000	6.000	18.000	3.000	17.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0500	0.3000	0.9000	0.1500	0.8500	0.1000
season	0.20	15	32.000	11.000	29.000	6.000	26.000	4.000	3.0938	1.0938	0.3438	0.9062	0.1875	0.8125	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_ER	0.6030
predicted_ERA	3.1807
predicted_H	1.5960
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6540
predicted_WHIP	1.2008

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4530	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6030	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1807	3.1807	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5960	0.7403	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1970	0.0914	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6540	0.7672	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2008	1.2008	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	40
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	33
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	1.632	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	1.579	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.053	1.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	2.000	0.289	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	5.0625	1.6875	0.5625	0.9375	0.7500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	20.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	3.8571	1.4464	0.4286	1.0714	0.3750	0.9643	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.4890
predicted_ERA	4.4027
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8920
predicted_WHIP	1.4265

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4520	1.3695	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4890	1.3846	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4027	4.4027	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9740	0.9894	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0800	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8920	0.9560	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4265	1.4265	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.846	1.000	0.154	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	0.8823	0.5294	1.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.7143	0.2143	0.9643	0.7500	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	19	20.200	6.000	20.000	14.000	20.000	2.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	0.9677	0.6774	0.9677	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_ER	0.3900
predicted_ERA	3.5125
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9940
predicted_WHIP	1.4288

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4940	0.2064	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3900	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5125	3.5125	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9340	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9940	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4288	1.4288	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.609	1.000	-0.609	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.770	1.000	0.330	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.696	1.000	0.304	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1000	0.0000	0.9000	1.2000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.7500	0.7500	0.8571	0.0000
season	0.20	23	21.200	7.000	18.000	14.000	16.000	3.000	2.9077	1.4769	0.3231	0.8308	0.6462	0.7385	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_ER	0.2390
predicted_ERA	2.8602
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6340
predicted_WHIP	1.5246

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4760	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2390	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8602	2.8602	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6340	0.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5246	1.5246	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260520_OAK@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.544917, "home_win_probability": 0.455083, "away_win_probability": 0.544917, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 3 LAA", "confidence": 0.544917, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 3 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	OAK 4 - 3 LAA	OAK	0.545	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	OAK 4 - 3 LAA	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away OAK	4-6	0.400	3.60	4	-4	3L	average	average
Home LAA	2-8	0.200	1.80	6.30	-45	1W	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away OAK	23-24	0.489	-14	-0.298	True
Home LAA	17-31	0.354	-59	-1.229	True
Signal	-	-	-0.931	-1.134	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	OAK @ LAA	1 - 2	LAA	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target OAK	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized OAK	34	9	3	0	4	1	7
Player finalized LAA	34	9	2	0	1	2	8
Player model fractional OAK	32.76	8.29	4.62	1.13	4.72	3.72	7.58
Player model fractional LAA	32.74	6.36	3.46	0.92	3.06	3.37	8.83
Simulation box OAK	34	8	4	0	4	4	7
Simulation box LAA	37	10	3	1	3	2	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away OAK	Starter	Aaron Civale	5.20	3	5	8	2	2.99	1.39	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	0	1	0	3.93	1.19	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1	0	1	1	0	3.24	1.09	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	0.20	0	2	0	0	4.35	1.49	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	0.20	0	1	0	0	5.83	1.38	True
Home LAA	Starter	Jack Kochanowicz	5.20	1	4	2	4	4.80	1.39	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.71	1.33	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	1	0	1	0	3.08	0.95	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	0.20	0	2	1	0	4.32	1.29	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	José Fermin	0	2	0	4	0	4.78	1.45	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: OAK

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 39

All-history rows before 20260520: 39

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2920

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.513	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.513	4.000	0.487	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.500	0.458	0.250
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	2.000	1.974	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.500	0.397	0.250
predicted_R	0.359	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	2.000	0.641	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	0.641	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.500	0.620	0.500
predicted_SO	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.513	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.462	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.497	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.017
predicted_H	0.860	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.491	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.497	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.294	0.003
predicted_H	0.888	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.016
predicted_R	0.417	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.486	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2121	0.1818	0.0000	0.0606	0.0606	0.1818
season	0.60	39	-	137.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	14.000	12.000	18.000	0.2920	0.3529	0.3796	0.2920	0.0073	0.1022	0.0876	0.1314

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4720
predicted_AVG	0.2692
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3279
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3536
predicted_SO	0.5350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1960	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5130	3.4720	3.4965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2692	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2660	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9350	0.8603	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3279	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.4490	0.3952	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3570	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3536	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4620	0.5350	0.4914	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2017

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	4.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.500	0.048	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	2.000	0.226	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.226	1.000	-0.226	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.600	-0.037	-0.350
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.387	2.000	-0.387	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.774	3.000	-0.774	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	1.250	-0.145	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.323	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.323	1.000	-1.323	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.484	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	1.323	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.837	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	-0.025
predicted_H	0.830	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.237	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.779	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	1.260	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.464	0.005
predicted_H	0.857	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.245	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.007
predicted_R	0.432	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.823	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.247	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	10.000	0.2432	0.3488	0.5135	0.2432	0.0811	0.2432	0.1622	0.2703
season	0.60	31	-	119.000	24.000	2.000	7.000	24.000	12.000	15.000	41.000	0.2017	0.2868	0.3950	0.2017	0.0588	0.2017	0.1260	0.3445

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.2241
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2470
predicted_OBP	0.3001
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.8080
predicted_SLG	0.4401
predicted_SO	1.1630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0820	0.0718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.8350	3.8374	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2241	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4840	0.4220	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8600	0.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2470	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3001	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.4430	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8080	0.7791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4401	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3230	1.1630	1.2595	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	5.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.600	0.233	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.960	3.000	1.040	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.240	1.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.600	0.180	-0.100
predicted_R	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.640	2.000	-0.640	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	3.000	-0.640	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	1.200	-0.011	-0.700
predicted_SO	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.640	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.641	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	-0.001
predicted_H	0.869	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.194	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.869	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.242	0.002
predicted_H	0.897	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.025
predicted_R	0.670	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.546	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.5000	0.2632	0.0790	0.1316	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.60	25	-	90.000	24.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	16.000	16.000	6.000	22.000	0.2667	0.3196	0.5111	0.2667	0.0667	0.1778	0.0667	0.2444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0220
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.2603
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.2160
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.6250
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4685
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0220	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7080	3.6411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2380	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9650	0.8690	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2160	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6400	0.6250	0.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5760	0.5166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4685	0.4688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	0.8500	0.8686	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3277

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.116	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.116	4.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.000	-0.078	0.250
predicted_BB	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	2.000	0.558	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.349	0.000	-0.349	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.333	0.006	0.067
predicted_R	0.767	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.628	0.000	0.372	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.588	0.000	-0.338	0.250
predicted_SO	0.953	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.953	2.000	0.047	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.116	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.767	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.953	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.068	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	0.036
predicted_H	1.220	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.179	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.735	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.068	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.005
predicted_BB	0.483	0.005
predicted_H	1.260	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.185	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.005
predicted_R	0.777	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.017
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.116

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.2895	0.4043	0.3947	0.2895	0.0263	0.1842	0.1842	0.2368
season	0.60	43	-	177.000	58.000	10.000	12.000	27.000	33.000	19.000	41.000	0.3277	0.3939	0.5876	0.3277	0.0678	0.1525	0.1073	0.2316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3053
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_H	1.2210
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3880
predicted_R	0.6900
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.4790
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1610	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1160	4.0000	4.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3053	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.5300	0.4782	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2210	1.2204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1770	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3880	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7670	0.6900	0.7353	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5810	0.5804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4790	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9530	0.9040	0.9328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 29

All-history rows before 20260520: 29

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3402

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	2.000	0.655	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.500	-0.090	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	3.000	0.621	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.138	1.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.800	-0.004	-0.400
predicted_R	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.552	0.000	0.448	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.546	0.500	-0.046	0.000
predicted_SO	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	0.379	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	0.017
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.371	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	0.024
predicted_H	1.035	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.418	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.007
predicted_BB	0.407	0.004
predicted_H	1.069	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.009
predicted_R	0.378	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.009
predicted_SO	0.414	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4500	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3500	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.0857	0.1143	0.1143
season	0.60	29	-	97.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	11.000	11.000	11.000	0.3402	0.4037	0.5464	0.3402	0.0412	0.1650	0.1134	0.1134

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2520
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.4130
predicted_AVG	0.3099
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3813
predicted_R	0.3240
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.4741
predicted_SO	0.4800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.2520	0.2244	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0190	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.4130	3.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3099	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.4410	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0580	1.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3813	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.3240	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4740	0.4654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4741	0.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3790	0.4800	0.4181	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.200	-0.318	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	-0.333	-0.200
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.400	-0.364	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.724	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	0.001
predicted_H	0.807	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.224	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.997	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.170	0.002
predicted_H	0.833	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.029
predicted_R	0.236	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.987	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	6	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3333	0.3636	0.3182	0.0909	0.0454	0.2727
season	0.60	6	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3333	0.3636	0.3182	0.0909	0.0454	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8640
predicted_AVG	0.2519
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2869
predicted_R	0.3650
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.3582
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1870	0.1727	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8640	3.7236	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2519	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1720	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9730	0.8070	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0690	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2869	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3650	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3660	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3582	0.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9890	0.9968	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2639

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.130	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.130	4.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.264	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.826	2.000	-0.826	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.600	-0.346	-0.600
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	2.000	0.565	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.500	-0.319	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.522	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.130	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.522	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.205	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.030
predicted_H	0.788	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.539	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.205	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.365	0.004
predicted_H	0.814	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.020
predicted_R	0.486	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.255	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.533	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.3750	0.4118	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.3438	0.3824	0.3750	0.3438	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
season	0.60	23	-	72.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	9.000	12.000	0.2639	0.3457	0.3194	0.2639	0.0139	0.0833	0.1250	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2865
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3498
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3655
predicted_SO	0.5670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.1090	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1300	3.3320	3.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2865	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.3100	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9540	0.7879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3498	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.5030	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2950	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3655	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5220	0.5670	0.5387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.213	1.000	-0.213	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.617	5.000	0.383	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.600	-0.276	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.936	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.936	0.000	0.064	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.431	0.600	-0.231	-0.400
predicted_R	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.660	2.000	-0.660	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.723	5.000	-0.723	-5.000
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.800	-0.488	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.340	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.340	0.000	0.660	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.617	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.936	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.432	-
predicted_R	0.660	-
predicted_RBI	0.960	-
predicted_SLG	0.543	-
predicted_SO	1.340	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.035
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.595	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.885	-0.051
predicted_H	1.012	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.192	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.432	-0.000
predicted_R	0.697	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.969	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.000
predicted_SO	1.289	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.002
predicted_BB	0.893	0.009
predicted_H	1.046	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.099	0.000
predicted_HR	0.198	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.000
predicted_R	0.736	0.039
predicted_RBI	1.024	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.535	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.276	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.4706	0.2353	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	14.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.7647	0.3529	0.0882	0.4118	0.2353	0.3235
season	0.60	47	-	170.000	47.000	10.000	1.000	8.000	34.000	31.000	44.000	63.000	0.2765	0.4306	0.4882	0.2765	0.0471	0.2000	0.2588	0.3706

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2891
predicted_BB	0.8120
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.4317
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	0.9820
predicted_SLG	0.5431
predicted_SO	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2130	0.2970	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6170	3.5630	3.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2891	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9360	0.8120	0.8846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0300	1.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1940	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4320	0.4317	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6600	0.7490	0.6969	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9600	0.9820	0.9691	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5430	0.5431	0.5430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3400	1.2160	1.2886	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.822	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	-0.034
predicted_H	0.606	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.315	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.402	0.004
predicted_H	0.626	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.006
predicted_R	0.483	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.849	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2105	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1026	0.1860	0.1795	0.1026	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.60	44	-	168.000	32.000	14.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	19.000	39.000	0.1905	0.2751	0.3750	0.1905	0.0298	0.1191	0.1131	0.2321

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8270
predicted_AVG	0.1680
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2493
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.3158
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.3110	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.8270	3.8217	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1680	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3490	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6430	0.6058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2493	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3960	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3010	0.2827	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3158	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.8170	0.8577	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Aaron Civale (650644) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	1.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.556	2.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	5.667	6.000	2.333	2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.056	5.000	0.144	0.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.889	2.000	1.111	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	6.000	30.000	8.000	19.000	4.000	2.0506	1.4430	0.2278	1.1392	0.3038	0.7215	0.1519
last_10	0.35	9	46.200	14.000	51.000	14.000	35.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3929	0.3000	1.0929	0.3000	0.7500	0.1286
season	0.20	9	46.200	14.000	51.000	14.000	35.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3929	0.3000	1.0929	0.3000	0.7500	0.1286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7960
predicted_ER	1.8130
predicted_ERA	2.9920
predicted_H	5.7600
predicted_HR	0.7550
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.4230
predicted_WHIP	1.3859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7960	1.8982	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.8130	2.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9920	2.9920	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.7600	6.8820	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7550	0.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.4230	4.7120	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3859	1.3859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	8
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650644
playerID	650644
playerName	Aaron Civale
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000	1.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.6000	0.4000	0.7000	0.1000
season	0.20	18	17.200	5.000	14.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0189	0.2830	0.7924	0.2264	0.5660	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_ER	0.4090
predicted_ERA	3.9257
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8820
predicted_WHIP	1.1883

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2800	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4090	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9257	3.9257	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8350	0.9337	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0534	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8820	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1883	1.1883	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.55
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.877	1.000	0.123	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	2.6129	0.5806	0.2903	0.3871	0.1935	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	21	22.100	4.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	1.6119	0.7164	0.1791	0.4030	0.3134	0.8955	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	3.2360
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9590
predicted_WHIP	1.0879

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3070	0.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3600	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2360	3.2360	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7810	0.9067	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9590	0.9825	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0879	1.0879	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.22
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.320	2.000	-0.320	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.840	2.000	-0.840	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.696	1.000	-0.496	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.9091	1.3636	0.5454	1.0909	0.2727	1.6364	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	4.000	11.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	4.6957	2.0870	0.5217	1.4348	0.6522	1.3043	0.1304
season	0.20	25	23.000	8.000	21.000	17.000	25.000	2.000	3.1304	1.6522	0.3478	0.9130	0.7391	1.0870	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	4.3531
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8180
predicted_WHIP	1.4879

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3040	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3380	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3531	4.3531	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7350	0.3154	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8180	1.4928	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4879	1.4879	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.238	2.000	-1.238	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	2.000	-0.614	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.048	2.000	-0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	6.000	8.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	9.5294	1.5882	1.0588	1.4118	0.1765	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	6.3000	1.2000	0.7000	1.0000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	21	19.200	15.000	26.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	6.8644	1.6271	0.7627	1.3220	0.3051	1.1186	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_ER	0.5260
predicted_ERA	5.8284
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8620
predicted_WHIP	1.3801

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2480	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5260	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8284	5.8284	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8740	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8620	0.9430	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3801	1.3801	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: LAA

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2134

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.644	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.644	5.000	1.356	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.200	-0.213	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.200	-0.305	-0.200
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.200	-0.415	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.378	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.378	0.000	0.622	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.644	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	1.378	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.675	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.038
predicted_H	0.704	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.432	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.359	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.005
predicted_H	0.688	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.006
predicted_R	0.414	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.358	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.376	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3947
season	0.60	45	-	164.000	35.000	9.000	8.000	28.000	21.000	19.000	62.000	0.2134	0.3053	0.4146	0.2134	0.0488	0.1707	0.1158	0.3780

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.1984
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2689
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.3598
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2650	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6440	3.7190	3.6748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1984	0.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.3280	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7380	0.7038	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1100	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2689	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.3810	0.4317	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3930	0.3735	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3598	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3780	1.3330	1.3595	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.516	3.000	0.484	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.333	-0.007	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	1.000	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.600	-0.081	-0.350
predicted_R	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.333	-0.181	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.935	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	1.000	-0.935	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.516	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.530	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	-0.005
predicted_H	0.729	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.253	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.530	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.218	-0.003
predicted_H	0.713	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.069
predicted_R	0.350	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.267	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.958	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.2432
season	0.60	31	-	109.000	28.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	29.000	0.2569	0.3306	0.4312	0.2569	0.0459	0.1009	0.0642	0.2661

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5510
predicted_AVG	0.2267
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.2530
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3173
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.3581
predicted_SO	0.9640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1120	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5160	3.5510	3.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2267	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.2130	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8050	0.7290	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2530	0.2530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3173	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.3820	0.3656	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3070	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3581	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.9640	0.9464	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	2
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2251

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.204	1.000	-0.204	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.898	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.898	4.000	0.102	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.275	0.250
predicted_BB	0.592	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.592	1.000	-0.592	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.082	0.000	-0.082	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	1.000	1.122	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.400	0.262	0.200
predicted_R	0.653	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.653	1.000	0.347	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.449	0.000	-0.449	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.500	0.086	0.000
predicted_SO	1.408	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.408	1.000	0.592	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.898	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.592	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.653	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	1.408	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.849	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	-0.021
predicted_H	0.872	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.159	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.638	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.849	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.564	-0.007
predicted_H	0.852	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.159	0.000
predicted_HR	0.168	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.029
predicted_R	0.611	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.414	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.015
predicted_SO	1.381	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.898

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	0.2368	0.3556	0.4474	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.1316	0.3684
season	0.60	49	-	191.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	8.000	22.000	32.000	29.000	69.000	0.2251	0.3378	0.4136	0.2251	0.0419	0.1152	0.1518	0.3613

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.1590
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3497
predicted_R	0.6170
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.4276
predicted_SO	1.3040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2040	0.2000	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0120	0.0167	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8980	3.7810	3.8494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5920	0.5420	0.5712	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8740	0.8717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1590	0.1590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1730	0.1712	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3497	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6530	0.6170	0.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4350	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4276	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4080	1.3040	1.3648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	3.000	1.458	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.333	-0.035	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.896	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.896	2.000	-0.896	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.600	-0.198	-0.400
predicted_R	0.708	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.708	1.000	-0.708	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.521	2.000	-0.521	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	1.333	-0.288	-1.133
predicted_SO	1.104	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.104	0.000	-1.104	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.896	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.708	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	1.104	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.542	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.846	-0.050
predicted_H	0.691	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.194	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	-0.085
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	-0.065

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.836	-0.010
predicted_H	0.675	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.002
predicted_R	0.597	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.052	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	11.000	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.0286	0.0571	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.60	48	-	170.000	40.000	7.000	12.000	25.000	34.000	43.000	53.000	0.2353	0.3981	0.4882	0.2353	0.0706	0.1471	0.2529	0.3118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5410
predicted_AVG	0.1995
predicted_BB	0.7750
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3473
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.4177
predicted_SO	0.9470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1700	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.5410	3.5416	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1995	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8960	0.7750	0.8459	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7060	0.6908	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2000	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3473	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7080	0.5020	0.6227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4370	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4177	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1040	0.9470	1.0390	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	5.000	0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.200	0.000	0.050
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.200	-0.076	0.050
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	2.000	-0.591	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.200	0.112	0.300
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.819	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.017
predicted_H	0.766	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.423	0.090

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.819	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.005
predicted_H	0.749	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.017
predicted_R	0.314	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.487	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.428	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.60	21	-	80.000	20.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3222	0.3875	0.2500	0.0250	0.1500	0.1125	0.0875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.2911
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.5560
predicted_SLG	0.3579
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1690	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.8340	3.8190	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3830	0.4117	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8430	0.7664	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1180	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2911	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3200	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5560	0.5086	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.5720	0.4231	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 28

All-history rows before 20260520: 28

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.321	5.000	0.679	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.400	0.296	0.100
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.679	2.000	1.321	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	0.964	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.400	0.194	0.100
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	1.714	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.600	0.992	0.650
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.321	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.365	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.044
predicted_H	0.603	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.365	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.004
predicted_H	0.590	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.021
predicted_R	0.340	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.192	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.232	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.861	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1818	0.2286	0.2121	0.1818	0.0000	0.0000	0.0606	0.3030
season	0.60	28	-	93.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	11.000	24.000	0.2043	0.3056	0.2581	0.2043	0.0107	0.0860	0.1183	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.2051
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2733
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.2320
predicted_SLG	0.2774
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1180	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3210	3.4340	3.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2051	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.2790	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7040	0.6034	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2733	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3520	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2320	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8410	0.8508	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 33

All-history rows before 20260520: 33

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.216	0.000	0.034	0.250
predicted_R	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.000	-0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.030	1.000	-1.030	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.212	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	1.030	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.281	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.004
predicted_H	0.549	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.203	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.281	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.002
predicted_H	0.537	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.034
predicted_R	0.195	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.185	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.236	-0.047
predicted_SO	1.014	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.1250	0.1515	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0312	0.3125
season	0.60	33	-	108.000	18.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	34.000	0.1667	0.2155	0.2870	0.1667	0.0370	0.0926	0.0556	0.3148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2940
predicted_AVG	0.1949
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2425
predicted_R	0.1900
predicted_RBI	0.2300
predicted_SLG	0.2835
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0300	0.0470	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.2940	3.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1949	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1910	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6420	0.5493	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0800	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2425	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2120	0.1900	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2300	0.1934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0300	0.9590	1.0023	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.955	4.000	0.045	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.400	0.095	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.250	-0.112	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.910	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.010
predicted_H	0.894	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.370	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.910	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.003
predicted_H	0.874	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.022
predicted_R	0.354	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.280	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.769	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.955

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.2632	0.2368	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.60	44	-	174.000	44.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	16.000	12.000	32.000	0.2529	0.3053	0.3621	0.2529	0.0172	0.1149	0.0690	0.1839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.2341
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2936
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3159
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1570	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9550	3.8460	3.9103	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2341	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2480	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9000	0.8941	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2936	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3780	0.3697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2950	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3159	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8060	0.7594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.837	5.000	0.163	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	0.500
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.959	0.000	1.041	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.204	0.500
predicted_R	0.327	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.327	0.000	0.673	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.551	0.000	0.449	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.122	0.500
predicted_SO	0.959	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.959	1.000	1.041	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.837	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.327	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.959	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.772	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	0.040
predicted_H	0.702	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.301	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.772	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.180	-0.002
predicted_H	0.686	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.047
predicted_R	0.288	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.989	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.837

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.1176	0.0588	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.1765	0.2564	0.4412	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.0882	0.2941
season	0.60	49	-	188.000	47.000	6.000	6.000	27.000	16.000	7.000	47.000	0.2500	0.2956	0.3777	0.2500	0.0319	0.1436	0.0372	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.2031
predicted_BB	0.2390
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.2660
predicted_R	0.2630
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.3458
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1780	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8370	3.6800	3.7723	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2031	0.2030	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2390	0.1826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7480	0.7022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2660	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3270	0.2630	0.3006	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5240	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3458	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9590	1.0020	0.9767	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jack Kochanowicz (686799) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.778	2.000	1.222	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.889	6.000	-1.889	-5.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	5.000	7.000	-3.000	-5.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.522	6.000	-0.322	-0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	17.000	31.000	10.000	16.000	4.000	5.4643	1.4643	0.6071	1.1071	0.3571	0.5714	0.1429
last_10	0.35	9	51.100	26.000	45.000	25.000	34.000	5.000	4.5584	1.3636	0.5065	0.8766	0.4870	0.6623	0.0974
season	0.20	9	51.100	26.000	45.000	25.000	34.000	5.000	4.5584	1.3636	0.5065	0.8766	0.4870	0.6623	0.0974

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2480
predicted_ER	3.0240
predicted_ERA	4.8032
predicted_H	5.6120
predicted_HR	0.7210
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.1370
predicted_WHIP	1.3871

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.2480	3.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	3.0240	2.0102	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8032	4.8032	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.6120	3.8028	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7210	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.1370	3.5675	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3871	1.3871	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	104

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	4.56
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	686799
playerID	686799
playerName	Jack Kochanowicz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 16

All-history rows before 20260520: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.812	2.000	-0.812	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.244	0.100	-0.144	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.812	0.000	-0.812	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	1.5882	1.4118	0.1765	0.5294	0.8823	1.4118
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	6.000	8.000	9.000	16.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	0.6316	0.7105	1.2632
season	0.20	16	22.000	11.000	14.000	13.000	29.000	4.5000	1.2273	0.5000	0.6364	0.5909	1.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7050
predicted_ER	0.5210
predicted_ERA	3.7111
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4330
predicted_WHIP	1.3329

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7050	0.2992	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5210	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7111	3.7111	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9790	0.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4330	1.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3329	1.3329	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 16

All-history rows before 20260520: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.206	2.000	-0.106	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	1.000	1.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	0.0000	1.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4667	0.1333	1.0000	0.1333
season	0.20	16	22.100	7.000	12.000	10.000	24.000	2.000	2.8209	0.9851	0.3134	0.5373	0.4478	1.0746	0.0896

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_ER	0.4560
predicted_ERA	3.0801
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3900
predicted_WHIP	0.9502

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3530	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4560	0.7683	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0801	3.0801	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9140	0.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.0737	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3900	0.5921	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9502	0.9502	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	-0.600	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
last_10	0.35	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
season	0.20	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	4.3236
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7370
predicted_WHIP	1.2888

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3410	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3236	4.3236	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6550	0.9030	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7370	1.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2888	1.2888	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.600	1.000	3.400	3.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.770	0.100	-0.770	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	3.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	8.1000	2.4000	0.9000	1.2000	1.2000	0.3000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.6429	0.4286	0.9643	0.1071
season	0.20	10	9.100	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.6429	0.4286	0.9643	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_ER	0.2460
predicted_ERA	4.7803
predicted_H	0.4370
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3960
predicted_WHIP	1.4530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2360	0.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2460	1.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7803	4.7803	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.4370	2.7827	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3960	0.7936	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4530	1.4530	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260520_PIT@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.588607, "home_win_probability": 0.588607, "away_win_probability": 0.411393, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 6 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 6 STL", "confidence": 0.588607, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "PIT 2 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PIT 4 - 6 STL	STL	0.589	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PIT 2 - 6 STL	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PIT	3-7	0.300	5	6	-10	4L	average	weak
Home STL	6-4	0.600	4.10	3.50	6	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away PIT	24-24	0.500	15	0.312	True
Home STL	28-19	0.596	6	0.128	True
Signal	-	-	-0.185	-0.041	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	PIT @ STL	6 - 9	STL	3	blowout
2026-04-30	STL @ PIT	10 - 5	STL	5	blowout
2026-04-29	STL @ PIT	5 - 4	STL	1	close
2026-04-28	STL @ PIT	11 - 7	STL	4	blowout
2026-04-27	STL @ PIT	4 - 2	STL	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PIT	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target STL	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PIT	35	9	4	0	4	3	10
Player finalized STL	34	9	4	0	5	3	9
Player model fractional PIT	34.41	8.43	4.34	0.80	4.08	3.95	9.04
Player model fractional STL	32.81	8.11	4.43	1.14	4.23	3.08	7.32
Simulation box PIT	32	5	2	0	2	2	13
Simulation box STL	28	6	6	1	6	2	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PIT	Starter	Carmen Mlodzinski	5	3	3	4	2	5.20	1.44	True
Away PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1	0	0	0	0	3.94	1.13	True
Away PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	1	2	2	1	0	3.14	1.15	True
Away PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1	1	0	1	0	4.88	1.42	True
Home STL	Starter	Michael McGreevy	6	2	8	3	2	2.75	1.05	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1	0	1	1	0	3.79	1.33	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	1	0	1	0	0	3.13	1.23	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1	0	3	1	0	5.30	1.38	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PIT

Jake Mangum (663968) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2576

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	2.000	-0.882	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.076	0.333
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.333	0.014	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.059	0.000	1.941	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.045	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.819	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.006
predicted_H	0.841	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.184	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.819	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.045
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.002
predicted_H	0.825	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.043
predicted_R	0.482	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.178	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.998	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.3243	0.2973	0.0270	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.60	17	-	66.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	0.2576	0.3194	0.2879	0.2576	0.0152	0.0909	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.2606
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.2090
predicted_SLG	0.3219
predicted_SO	0.9790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1140	0.1165	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	3.7080	3.8187	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3360	0.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9660	0.8413	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.4480	0.4995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2090	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3219	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9790	0.9924	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	663968
playerID	663968
playerName	Jake Mangum
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jhostynxon Garcia (691373) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.048
predicted_H	0.810	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.364	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.045
predicted_BB	0.048	-0.000
predicted_H	0.794	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.210	-0.089
predicted_R	0.081	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.351	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.980	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.60	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2450
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.3791
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8240	3.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2450	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9370	0.8101	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1090	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4390	0.0842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4220	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3791	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8690	0.9749	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691373
playerID	691373
playerName	Jhostynxon Garcia
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2656

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.267	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.267	4.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.500	-0.016	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	2.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.600	-0.082	-0.350
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.500	0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	1.622	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.622	2.000	-1.622	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.267	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	1.622	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.233	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.005
predicted_H	1.133	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.751	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.652	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	1.619	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.002
predicted_H	1.110	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.142	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.021
predicted_R	0.724	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.629	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.629	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.267

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.4762
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	5.000	18.000	0.3333	0.4043	0.4762	0.3333	0.0238	0.1191	0.1191	0.4286
season	0.60	45	-	192.000	51.000	9.000	10.000	33.000	35.000	17.000	73.000	0.2656	0.3318	0.4688	0.2656	0.0521	0.1719	0.0885	0.3802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1850
predicted_AVG	0.2783
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3440
predicted_R	0.7130
predicted_RBI	0.6700
predicted_SLG	0.4373
predicted_SO	1.6160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2150	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2670	4.1850	4.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2783	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3900	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1650	1.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1490	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3440	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.7130	0.7511	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6700	0.6524	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4373	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6220	1.6160	1.6195	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Endy Rodríguez (682848) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.444	0.200	-0.194	0.050
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	0.071	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.446	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.552	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.878	-0.122
predicted_H	0.802	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.075	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.446	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.552	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.873	-0.005
predicted_H	0.786	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.038
predicted_R	0.481	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.497	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.007
predicted_SO	0.981	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.4286	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.4286	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857
season	0.60	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4444	0.4286	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.7310
predicted_AVG	0.2539
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3374
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.6050
predicted_SLG	0.4038
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2600	0.4460	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7310	3.5520	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4590	0.8783	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9470	0.8021	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0930	0.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3374	0.3371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4970	0.4993	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6050	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4038	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8900	0.9752	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682848
playerID	682848
playerName	Endy Rodríguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 39

All-history rows before 20260520: 39

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3203

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.923	5.000	0.077	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.320	0.200	-0.320	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.256	1.000	-1.256	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.333	-0.381	-0.333
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	2.000	-0.487	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.200	-0.366	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.718	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	1.000	1.282	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.906	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.018
predicted_H	1.164	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.061	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.496	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.906	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.002
predicted_H	1.141	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.023
predicted_R	0.479	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.369	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.693	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.923

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.2821	0.3778	0.3333	0.2821	0.0513	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.60	39	-	153.000	49.000	7.000	19.000	19.000	12.000	28.000	0.3203	0.3810	0.3660	0.3203	0.1242	0.0784	0.1830

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8800
predicted_AVG	0.3015
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HBP	0.0610
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3690
predicted_R	0.5100
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.3655
predicted_SO	0.6470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1870	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9230	3.8800	3.9056	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3015	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3520	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1700	1.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0610	0.0610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3690	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.5100	0.4963	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3870	0.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3655	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.6470	0.6892	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 36

All-history rows before 20260520: 36

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	-0.275	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.250	-0.140	0.000
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.250	-0.400	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.556	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	2.000	1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.639	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.043
predicted_3B	0.030	0.002
predicted_AB	3.440	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	-0.038
predicted_H	0.980	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000
predicted_SO	0.612	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.597	-0.003
predicted_H	0.961	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.007
predicted_R	0.362	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.477	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.615	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.5500	0.4000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	0.3421	0.4318	0.5263	0.3421	0.0000	0.2105	0.1579	0.1842
season	0.60	36	-	120.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	13.000	23.000	20.000	0.2750	0.3904	0.4000	0.2750	0.0167	0.1417	0.1917	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.3016
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3934
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.5460
predicted_SLG	0.4452
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.3020	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0330	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6010	3.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3016	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6390	0.5430	0.6006	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0860	0.9804	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3934	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.3970	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5460	0.4944	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4452	0.4451	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.6960	0.6120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2547

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.927	5.000	0.073	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.400	-0.005	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.561	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.400	-0.099	-0.150
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.400	-0.303	-0.150
predicted_SO	1.073	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.073	2.000	-0.073	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.927	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.561	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	1.073	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.027	0.003
predicted_AB	3.972	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	-0.064
predicted_H	0.974	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.689	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.972	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.003
predicted_H	0.955	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.273	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.007
predicted_R	0.626	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.664	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.519	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.136	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.927

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.5455	0.2273	0.0909	0.1364	0.0000	0.4091
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.2619	0.3191	0.5714	0.2619	0.0714	0.2143	0.0952	0.3333
season	0.60	41	-	161.000	41.000	10.000	1.000	12.000	31.000	27.000	23.000	44.000	0.2547	0.3495	0.5528	0.2547	0.0745	0.1925	0.1429	0.2733

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2210
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	4.0380
predicted_AVG	0.2498
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	1.0080
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2860
predicted_OBP	0.3171
predicted_R	0.6340
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.5330
predicted_SO	1.2120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2210	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0320	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9270	4.0380	3.9724	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2498	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5610	0.4060	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0080	0.9737	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2860	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3171	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.6340	0.6488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7160	0.6888	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5330	0.5330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0730	1.2120	1.1299	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2575

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.630	4.000	0.370	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	-0.257	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.739	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.739	0.000	-0.739	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	1.000	-0.935	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.400	-0.390	-0.400
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.609	2.000	-0.609	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.500	-0.395	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.978	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	1.000	1.022	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.739	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.021
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.692	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.644	-0.095
predicted_H	0.930	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	-0.111

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.640	-0.004
predicted_H	0.911	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.003
predicted_R	0.601	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.547	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.872	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.2895	0.2368	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526
season	0.60	46	-	167.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	28.000	30.000	34.000	45.000	0.2575	0.3902	0.3952	0.2575	0.0239	0.1677	0.2036	0.2695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.2571
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3555
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.5910
predicted_SLG	0.3744
predicted_SO	0.7080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2040	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0250	0.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.7810	3.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2571	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7390	0.5080	0.6437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9720	0.9297	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3555	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.5820	0.6231	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5910	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3744	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	0.7080	0.8666	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.275	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	0.000	0.725	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.400	-0.073	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.250	-0.395	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.150	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	2.000	0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.004
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.828	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.023
predicted_H	0.969	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.520	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.378	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.251	-0.001
predicted_H	0.950	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.035
predicted_R	0.501	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.364	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.138	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	0.2750	0.3182	0.4000	0.2750	0.0250	0.1000	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.60	40	-	152.000	40.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	19.000	20.000	11.000	46.000	0.2632	0.3234	0.3947	0.2632	0.0197	0.1250	0.0724	0.3026

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2770
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	1.0710
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3295
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.3967
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1840	0.1786	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0280	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8680	3.8276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2770	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.2190	0.2523	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0710	0.9693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3295	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5490	0.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4180	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3967	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.1050	1.1318	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Carmen Mlodzinski (669387) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.778	3.000	0.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	2.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.444	4.000	-1.444	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.767	5.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.778	2.000	-1.778	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	18.000	30.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	6.5676	1.5405	0.7297	1.2162	0.3243	0.9324	0.0811
last_10	0.35	9	45.000	22.000	49.000	16.000	43.000	2.000	4.4000	1.4444	0.4889	1.0889	0.3556	0.9556	0.0444
season	0.20	9	45.000	22.000	49.000	16.000	43.000	2.000	4.4000	1.4444	0.4889	1.0889	0.3556	0.9556	0.0444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7560
predicted_ER	2.8900
predicted_ERA	5.2013
predicted_H	5.4300
predicted_HR	0.4480
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.7270
predicted_WHIP	1.4372

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7560	1.8782	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.8900	2.9451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2013	5.2013	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.4300	4.7137	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4480	0.2236	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.7270	3.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4372	1.4372	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.40
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	45
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669387
playerID	669387
playerName	Carmen Mlodzinski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.261	3.000	-1.261	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.7500	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	2.5312	0.7500	0.2812	0.4688	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	23	23.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	29.000	1.000	2.3143	0.8143	0.2571	0.4286	0.3857	1.2429	0.0429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_ER	0.4380
predicted_ERA	3.9445
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9750
predicted_WHIP	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3620	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4380	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9445	3.9445	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7700	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9750	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1320	1.1320	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	2.000	1.579	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.842	2.000	0.158	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.368	0.000	0.632	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.7059	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	0.8438	0.7500	0.0938	0.4688	0.2812	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	18	18.000	6.000	14.000	8.000	26.000	2.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.4444	1.4444	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	3.1434
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9450
predicted_WHIP	1.1453

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3490	1.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1434	3.1434	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7800	0.9112	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1320	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9450	1.5743	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1453	1.1453	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.876	1.000	0.124	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	12.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	6.7500	1.8214	0.7500	1.2857	0.5357	0.6429	0.3214
season	0.20	20	19.100	8.000	15.000	9.000	12.000	3.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	0.7759	0.4655	0.6207	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.4400
predicted_ERA	4.8776
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6280
predicted_WHIP	1.4232

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3060	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4400	0.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8776	4.8776	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8480	0.9375	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6280	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4232	1.4232	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: STL

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	-1.867	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	-0.241	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.556	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	-0.933	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.600	0.135	-0.100
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	2.000	-0.533	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.425	1.250	-0.425	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.822	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.822	1.000	-0.822	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.822	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.854	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.570	0.014
predicted_H	0.895	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.244	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.745	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.512	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.003
predicted_BB	0.575	0.005
predicted_H	0.916	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_HR	0.193	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.032
predicted_R	0.775	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.533	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.008
predicted_SO	0.835	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2105	0.4000	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	0.2368	0.3958	0.3947	0.2368	0.0526	0.1579	0.1842	0.2368
season	0.60	45	-	174.000	42.000	5.000	9.000	24.000	35.000	25.000	37.000	0.2414	0.3649	0.4253	0.2414	0.0517	0.1379	0.1437	0.2126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.2355
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.2440
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3690
predicted_R	0.6970
predicted_RBI	0.5140
predicted_SLG	0.4064
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0810	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.8350	3.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2355	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5900	0.5701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9030	0.8954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2440	0.2440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3690	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.6970	0.7445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5140	0.5117	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4064	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8220	0.8710	0.8423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2549

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	2.000	0.268	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.005	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	1.000	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.667	-0.081	-0.417
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.500	-0.103	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.825	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.805	0.000	-0.805	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.779	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.021
predicted_H	0.870	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.164	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.779	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.307	0.003
predicted_H	0.890	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.164	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.031
predicted_R	0.457	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.795	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2857	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.60	40	-	153.000	39.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	17.000	18.000	13.000	33.000	0.2549	0.3237	0.3529	0.2549	0.0065	0.1111	0.0850	0.2157

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2544
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.1640
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.3660
predicted_SO	0.7670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2350	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0440	0.0476	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.7110	3.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2544	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.2740	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9440	0.8704	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1640	0.1640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4220	0.4386	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3690	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3660	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.7670	0.8014	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

César Prieto (693409) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.667
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.047	0.047
predicted_H	0.567	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.197	-0.057
predicted_R	0.086	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.270	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.555	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667
last_10	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667
season	0.60	2	-	6.000	1.000	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2036
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2544
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3303
predicted_SO	0.7870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1460	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6670	3.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2036	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2260	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.7460	0.5666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0990	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2544	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3980	0.0821	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3820	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3303	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7870	0.5592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	693409
playerID	693409
playerName	César Prieto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2345

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.333	0.099	0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	1.000	-0.475	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	1.000	-0.025	-1.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	0.875	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.500	-0.067	-0.250
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	2.000	2.400	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	1.333	0.968	0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	0.000	-0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	0.051
predicted_H	0.884	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.519	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.530	0.004
predicted_H	0.904	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.128	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.014
predicted_R	0.394	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.074	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	12.000	0.2647	0.4048	0.3824	0.2647	0.0294	0.1177	0.2353	0.3529
season	0.60	40	-	145.000	34.000	4.000	5.000	24.000	15.000	19.000	46.000	0.2345	0.3174	0.3655	0.2345	0.0345	0.1655	0.1310	0.3172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.2612
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3613
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.5470
predicted_SLG	0.4008
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0940	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.5750	3.6047	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2612	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.6000	0.5257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9340	0.8841	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3613	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3840	0.3786	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5470	0.5191	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	0.9840	1.0827	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2629

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	0.000	0.745	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.723	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.723	5.000	0.277	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.200	0.237	0.300
predicted_BB	0.617	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.617	0.000	-0.617	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.979	1.000	1.021	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	1.000	-0.106	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.200	0.109	0.300
predicted_R	0.553	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.553	1.000	0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	3.000	0.511	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.800	0.333	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.766	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.766	2.000	1.234	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.723	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.617	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.766	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.804	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	-0.079
predicted_H	0.996	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.159	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.000
predicted_R	0.550	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.804	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.001
predicted_BB	0.542	0.004
predicted_H	1.019	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.159	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.001
predicted_R	0.573	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.004
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3256	0.3478	0.4419	0.3256	0.0233	0.1395	0.0233	0.1163
season	0.60	47	-	175.000	46.000	12.000	5.000	23.000	26.000	29.000	36.000	0.2629	0.3907	0.4171	0.2629	0.0286	0.1314	0.1657	0.2057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9180
predicted_AVG	0.2673
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.0470
predicted_HBP	0.1590
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3576
predicted_R	0.5470
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.4209
predicted_SO	0.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.2290	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7230	3.9180	3.8038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2673	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6170	0.4260	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0470	0.9960	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1590	0.1590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1230	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3576	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.5470	0.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5580	0.5299	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4209	0.4210	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7660	0.7100	0.7428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2865

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.045	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.045	3.000	-0.045	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.667	-0.037	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.159	2.000	-0.159	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	1.000	-0.159	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.750	-0.098	-0.500
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	3.000	0.455	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.466	1.667	-0.216	-1.417
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.386	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.033	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.053
predicted_H	1.262	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000
predicted_R	0.550	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.678	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.033	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.001
predicted_BB	0.335	0.003
predicted_H	1.291	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.166	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.008
predicted_R	0.573	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.706	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.503	0.002
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.045

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.4500	0.4545	0.6500	0.4500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.3415	0.3636	0.5366	0.3415	0.0488	0.1220	0.0244	0.1951
season	0.60	44	-	178.000	51.000	11.000	7.000	34.000	24.000	17.000	32.000	0.2865	0.3485	0.4663	0.2865	0.0393	0.1910	0.0955	0.1798

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.3189
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	1.2800
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3639
predicted_R	0.5570
predicted_RBI	0.6900
predicted_SLG	0.5012
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2230	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0450	4.0150	4.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3189	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3860	0.2560	0.3325	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.2800	1.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1680	0.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3639	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5570	0.5499	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6900	0.6782	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5012	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7700	0.7447	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 37

All-history rows before 20260520: 37

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	4.000	-0.730	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.250	-0.246	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.250	-0.377	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.738	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	0.013
predicted_H	0.804	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.425	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.177	0.001
predicted_H	0.822	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.027
predicted_R	0.443	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.3243	0.2703	0.0000	0.0541	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	37	-	138.000	34.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	16.000	6.000	29.000	0.2464	0.2759	0.3768	0.2464	0.0290	0.1087	0.0435	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2819
predicted_R	0.4150
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3526
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1780	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.7490	3.7376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2441	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.1950	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9150	0.8040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2819	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.4150	0.4252	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3170	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3526	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.7350	0.7644	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 39

All-history rows before 20260520: 39

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.872	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.872	3.000	-0.872	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.000	-0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	1.000	0.641	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.872	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.922	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	-0.016
predicted_H	0.539	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.922	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.190	0.002
predicted_H	0.552	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.022
predicted_R	0.398	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.238	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.796	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2759	0.3929	0.2500	0.0357	0.0714	0.0357	0.2143
season	0.60	39	-	112.000	21.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	8.000	33.000	0.1875	0.2459	0.2589	0.1875	0.0179	0.0625	0.0714	0.2946

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2157
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2600
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.3401
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0510	0.0710	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8720	3.0000	2.9222	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2157	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.1640	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6470	0.5394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0990	0.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.4180	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2730	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3401	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.7360	0.8029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3029

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	4.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	-0.303	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.178	1.000	-1.178	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.250	-0.122	0.000
predicted_R	0.756	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.583	0.250	-0.583	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.111	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.756	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.559	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.936	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.044
predicted_H	1.110	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.271	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.000
predicted_R	0.701	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.683	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	1.037	-0.074

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.936	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.382	0.003
predicted_H	1.136	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.275	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.007
predicted_R	0.730	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.711	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.554	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3182	0.3182	0.6364	0.3182	0.0909	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2683	0.3182	0.5366	0.2683	0.0732	0.1707	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.60	45	-	175.000	53.000	10.000	13.000	34.000	34.000	19.000	50.000	0.3029	0.3724	0.5829	0.3029	0.0743	0.1943	0.1086	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0020
predicted_AVG	0.2918
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2860
predicted_OBP	0.3447
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.5594
predicted_SO	0.9300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2100	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	4.0020	3.9355	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.3160	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1680	1.1103	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2860	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3447	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7560	0.6220	0.7009	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7160	0.6830	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5590	0.5594	0.5592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.9300	1.0366	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Michael McGreevy (700241) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.222	1.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.333	1.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.778	5.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	6.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	3.000	4.000	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	24.000	3.000	1.8202	0.9101	0.2023	0.6404	0.2697	0.8090	0.1011
last_10	0.35	9	51.100	12.000	34.000	11.000	36.000	6.000	2.1039	0.8766	0.2338	0.6623	0.2143	0.7013	0.1169
season	0.20	9	51.100	12.000	34.000	11.000	36.000	6.000	2.1039	0.8766	0.2338	0.6623	0.2143	0.7013	0.1169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7440
predicted_ER	1.8110
predicted_ERA	2.7537
predicted_H	4.4540
predicted_HR	0.6830
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.9350
predicted_WHIP	1.0474

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7440	1.8722	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.8110	1.9057	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7537	2.7537	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4540	3.7257	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6830	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.9350	6.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0474	1.0474	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	8
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.10
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	700241
playerID	700241
playerName	Michael McGreevy
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.682	0.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	1.9286	1.3929	0.2143	0.9643	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
season	0.20	22	20.200	8.000	15.000	10.000	17.000	3.000	3.4839	1.2097	0.3871	0.7258	0.4839	0.8226	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_ER	0.4210
predicted_ERA	3.7891
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8730
predicted_WHIP	1.3333

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3660	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4210	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7891	3.7891	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9680	0.9866	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2120	0.0886	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8730	0.9469	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3333	1.3333	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.48
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.826	1.000	-0.826	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.826	1.100	0.174	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.913	2.000	0.087	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.7059	0.3529	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.7000	0.5000	1.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	23	23.200	8.000	19.000	9.000	21.000	3.000	3.0423	1.1831	0.3380	0.8028	0.3803	0.8873	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_ER	0.3480
predicted_ERA	3.1319
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0670
predicted_WHIP	1.2282

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3930	0.1698	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3480	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1319	3.1319	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8350	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0670	1.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2282	1.2282	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.04
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.348	2.000	-0.348	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.870	2.000	0.130	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.939	1.000	0.061	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.087	0.000	1.913	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.2000	1.4000	0.8000	1.0000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	8.000	14.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	7.4483	1.7586	0.8276	1.4483	0.3103	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	23	23.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	25.000	1.000	3.1304	1.0000	0.3478	0.8696	0.1304	1.0870	0.0435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.5890
predicted_ERA	5.3045
predicted_H	1.0310
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9890
predicted_WHIP	1.3786

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3480	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5890	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3045	5.3045	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0310	1.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.9890	2.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3786	1.3786	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_PIT@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260520_SF@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.57339, "home_win_probability": 0.57339, "away_win_probability": 0.42661000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 5 ARI", "confidence": 0.57339, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 3 - 5 ARI", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 3 - 5 ARI", "winner": "ARI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	0.573	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 3 - 5 ARI	ARI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	5-5	0.500	4.70	5.50	-8	1L	average	weak
Home ARI	6-4	0.600	4.90	3.10	18	2W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	20-28	0.417	-47	-0.979	True
Home ARI	23-23	0.500	-7	-0.152	True
Signal	-	-	0.827	0.952	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	SF @ ARI	2 - 12	ARI	10	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target ARI	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	33	9	0	0	1	0	8
Player finalized ARI	33	8	3	0	3	1	8
Player model fractional SF	33.08	7.86	2.88	0.97	3.32	2.23	7.44
Player model fractional ARI	33.01	7.64	4.16	0.65	3.89	2.86	7.09
Simulation box SF	34	7	3	1	3	4	8
Simulation box ARI	35	11	5	1	5	1	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Tyler Mahle	4.20	4	5	10	1	4.68	1.38	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.72	1.17	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	1	1	1	1	0	2.81	1.13	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.56	1.35	True
Home ARI	Starter	Merrill Kelly	4.20	3	4	7	3	5.37	1.43	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1	0	1	0	1	3.88	1.24	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	1	0	1	0	0	4.65	1.38	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	0	1	0	0	4.42	1.34	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1.10	0	1	0	0	4.18	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 24

All-history rows before 20260520: 24

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.121	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.224	0.500
predicted_R	0.292	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.292	0.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	0.000	1.708	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.329	0.667
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.292	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.016
predicted_3B	0.051	0.009
predicted_AB	3.419	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.003
predicted_H	0.553	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.290	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.003
predicted_H	0.540	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.215	-0.038
predicted_R	0.278	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.222	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.791	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.2632	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1944	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	24	-	80.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	18.000	0.2125	0.2759	0.3375	0.2125	0.0250	0.0875	0.0750	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.1896
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2534
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.3203
predicted_SO	0.8340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1260	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0660	0.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5620	3.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1896	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2590	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6750	0.5531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0690	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2920	0.2880	0.2905	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2830	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3203	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8340	0.7815	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 48

All-history rows before 20260520: 48

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2396

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.333	-0.240	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.188	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	1.000	0.812	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	1.000	-0.958	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.104	1.000	-0.104	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.500	-0.027	-0.250
predicted_R	0.396	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.396	1.000	-0.396	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	1.333	-0.391	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.188	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	1.000	0.812	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.396	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.961	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	0.030
predicted_H	1.130	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.168	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000
predicted_SO	1.089	-0.099

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.961	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.003
predicted_H	1.103	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.032
predicted_R	0.422	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.479	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.102	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.8889	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.4000	0.4419	0.6250	0.4000	0.0500	0.2250	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.60	48	-	192.000	46.000	14.000	5.000	15.000	19.000	9.000	57.000	0.2396	0.2772	0.3906	0.2396	0.0260	0.0781	0.0469	0.2969

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9050
predicted_AVG	0.3038
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3483
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.5189
predicted_SO	0.9470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.2990	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9050	3.9608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.2600	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1860	1.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1790	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3483	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3960	0.5040	0.4405	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5270	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5189	0.5190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	0.9470	1.0887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Will Brennan (686823) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	4.000	2.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_SO	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.223	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.290	-
predicted_SO	0.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.932	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.515	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.347	0.097

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.932	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.045	-0.001
predicted_H	0.503	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.184	-0.039
predicted_R	0.076	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.256	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.248	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.352	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	11.000	1.000	0.0909
last_10	0.20	4	-	11.000	1.000	0.0909
season	0.60	4	-	11.000	1.000	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.5190
predicted_AVG	0.1788
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_H	0.6290
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.2234
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.2900
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1230	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	3.5190	2.9315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1788	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1910	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6290	0.5152	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0830	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2230	0.2234	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3370	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3220	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2900	0.2900	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2500	0.6630	0.3475	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	686823
playerID	686823
playerName	Will Brennan
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3204

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	-0.196
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043
predicted_AB	3.935	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.935	5.000	1.065
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.320	0.200	-0.120
predicted_BB	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.283	0.000	-0.283
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.261	1.000	-0.261
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.200	-0.160
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	0.000	-0.370
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.087	0.000	-0.087
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.200	-0.225
predicted_SO	0.152	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.152	0.000	-0.152

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.935	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.283	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.525	-
predicted_SO	0.152	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.014
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.923	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.052
predicted_H	1.321	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.395	-0.000
predicted_R	0.516	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.525	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.169	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.329	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.004
predicted_H	1.290	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.139	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.014
predicted_R	0.494	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.406	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.506	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.171	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.328 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.935

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.4737	0.5217	0.8947	0.4737	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	0.000	0.3500	0.4375	0.5500	0.3500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1750	0.0000
season	0.60	46	-	181.000	58.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	17.000	21.000	13.000	7.000	0.3204	0.3604	0.4254	0.3204	0.0111	0.0939	0.0718	0.0387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.9050
predicted_AVG	0.3421
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	1.3360
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3945
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.5246
predicted_SO	0.1940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.2310	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9350	3.9050	3.9227	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3421	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2830	0.4100	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.3360	1.3207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3945	0.3948	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6000	0.5158	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4300	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5250	0.5246	0.5248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1520	0.1940	0.1693	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Daniel Susac (691740) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

System season_avg: 0.4670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.467	0.667	-0.467	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.750	2.000	-1.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.515	0.750	-0.515	-0.750
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.633	1.000	-0.633	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.125	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.368	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.096	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.783	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.012
predicted_H	1.055	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.169	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.477	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.368	0.000
predicted_3B	0.096	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.051
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.004
predicted_H	1.031	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.045
predicted_R	0.162	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.533	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.684	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.5000	0.3500	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	8	-	30.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.4667	0.5152	0.6333	0.4667	0.2333	0.1000	0.1667
season	0.60	8	-	30.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.4667	0.5152	0.6333	0.4667	0.2333	0.1000	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3530
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.8560
predicted_AVG	0.3226
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3805
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.6590
predicted_SLG	0.4768
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.3530	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1250	0.0320	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8560	3.7829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3226	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3380	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.2440	1.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0528	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3805	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.2660	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6590	0.5563	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4768	0.4769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7900	0.6763	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.467

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	691740
playerID	691740
playerName	Daniel Susac
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

System season_avg: 0.1480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.148	0.500	0.102	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.207	0.500	0.043	-0.250
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.500	-0.009	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.461	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.629	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.187	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.074	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.461	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.003
predicted_H	0.614	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.026
predicted_R	0.179	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.260	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.056
predicted_SO	1.087	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	8	-	27.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.1481	0.2069	0.2593	0.1482	0.0370	0.0370	0.0741	0.3333
season	0.60	8	-	27.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.1481	0.2069	0.2593	0.1482	0.0370	0.0370	0.0741	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2027
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.2581
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.3200
predicted_SLG	0.3517
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0890	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.6600	3.4609	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2027	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7420	0.6288	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1480	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2581	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.3310	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3200	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3517	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9550	1.0738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.148

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2460

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.224	1.000	-0.224	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.004	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	2.000	0.061	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.500	-0.042	-0.250
predicted_R	0.388	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.388	1.000	-0.388	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.408	1.000	-0.408	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	1.500	-0.151	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.245	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.245	1.000	0.755	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.388	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	1.245	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.856	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	0.006
predicted_H	0.963	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.003
predicted_H	0.941	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.014
predicted_R	0.413	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.232	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4762	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.6000	0.3250	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.60	49	-	187.000	46.000	11.000	6.000	20.000	19.000	13.000	61.000	0.2460	0.2921	0.4011	0.2460	0.0321	0.1070	0.0695	0.3262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9130
predicted_AVG	0.2582
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	1.0100
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.4482
predicted_SO	1.1790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2240	0.2950	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.9130	3.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.2800	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0100	0.9630	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3880	0.4910	0.4305	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4150	0.3944	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4482	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2450	1.1790	1.2178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2961

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.250	-0.046	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.091	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.503	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.520	0.250	0.480	0.750
predicted_SO	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.503	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.861	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	-0.004
predicted_H	1.114	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.208	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.503	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.883	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.861	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.145	-0.002
predicted_H	1.089	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.087	0.000
predicted_HR	0.203	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.025
predicted_R	0.492	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.454	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.496	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.893	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.6364	0.3636	0.0909	0.1364	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.4146	0.2683	0.0488	0.0732	0.0244	0.2439
season	0.60	40	-	152.000	45.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	21.000	20.000	6.000	34.000	0.2961	0.3415	0.5197	0.2960	0.0526	0.1382	0.0395	0.2237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9520
predicted_AVG	0.2948
predicted_BB	0.1410
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.2190
predicted_OBP	0.3330
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.5026
predicted_SO	0.9310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1350	0.1737	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.9520	3.8615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1410	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1650	1.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2190	0.2077	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5330	0.5134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4930	0.4734	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5030	0.5026	0.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.9310	0.8828	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2210

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.851	3.000	-1.851	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	-0.221	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.383	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.383	1.000	1.617	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.851	1.000	-0.851	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.201	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.383	1.000	-0.383	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.340	0.000	-0.340	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.333	-0.309	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.085	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.085	1.000	-0.085	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.851	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.383	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.085	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.040
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.884	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.003
predicted_H	0.766	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.116	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.005
predicted_H	0.748	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.027
predicted_R	0.362	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.330	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.129	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.851

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.3333	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.3250	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
season	0.60	47	-	181.000	40.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	16.000	18.000	18.000	51.000	0.2210	0.2985	0.3094	0.2210	0.0055	0.0884	0.0994	0.2818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3320
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.9310
predicted_AVG	0.2151
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2912
predicted_R	0.3700
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3276
predicted_SO	1.1600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.3320	0.2744	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8510	3.9310	3.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2151	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.3750	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8450	0.7656	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2912	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3830	0.3700	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3790	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3276	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0850	1.1600	1.1159	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Tyler Mahle (641816) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.333	1.000	-1.333	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.222	5.000	0.778	-1.000
predicted_H	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_H	5.778	10.000	4.222	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.056	5.000	-0.856	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.333	6.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	14.000	28.000	9.000	27.000	3.000	4.5000	1.3214	0.5000	1.0000	0.3214	0.9643	0.1071
last_10	0.35	9	46.200	29.000	52.000	21.000	48.000	9.000	5.5929	1.5643	0.6214	1.1143	0.4500	1.0286	0.1929
season	0.20	9	46.200	29.000	52.000	21.000	48.000	9.000	5.5929	1.5643	0.6214	1.1143	0.4500	1.0286	0.1929

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0410
predicted_ER	2.8400
predicted_ERA	4.6761
predicted_H	5.5010
predicted_HR	0.7470
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3350
predicted_WHIP	1.3799

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0410	1.5196	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.8400	3.4210	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6761	4.6761	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	5.5010	7.7544	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7470	0.3728	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.3350	5.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3799	1.3799	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	10
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.59
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	641816
playerID	641816
playerName	Tyler Mahle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.300	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6316	0.1579	0.3158	0.3158	0.1579
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6316	0.1579	0.3158	0.3158	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	3.7190
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7980
predicted_WHIP	1.1678

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3760	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7190	3.7190	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7920	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7980	0.9369	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1678	1.1678	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	0.076	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	1.000	0.190	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	1.6875	1.0312	0.1875	0.5625	0.4688	0.3750
season	0.20	21	20.100	5.000	10.000	7.000	17.000	2.2131	0.8361	0.2459	0.4918	0.3443	0.8361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_ER	0.3120
predicted_ERA	2.8073
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8210
predicted_WHIP	1.1258

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3530	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3120	0.7137	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8073	2.8073	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7720	0.9051	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0720	0.6138	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8210	0.9255	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1258	1.1258	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	2.000	-0.300	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.915	1.100	-0.715	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	6.7500	1.5000	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	10.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	3.9706	1.4118	0.4412	0.8823	0.5294	0.7059	0.1765
season	0.20	20	21.100	6.000	12.000	12.000	22.000	3.000	2.5312	1.1250	0.2812	0.5625	0.5625	1.0312	0.1406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_ER	0.3240
predicted_ERA	4.5570
predicted_H	0.5470
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5610
predicted_WHIP	1.3527

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3170	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3240	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5570	4.5570	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5470	0.2304	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5610	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3527	1.3527	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.53
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: ARI

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3291

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.158	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.158	4.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.500	-0.079	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.368	2.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.500	-0.096	-0.250
predicted_R	0.737	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.500	-0.269	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.158	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.737	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.395	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.175	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	0.006
predicted_H	1.321	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.761	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.682	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.390	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.175	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.001
predicted_BB	0.112	0.001
predicted_H	1.350	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.001
predicted_R	0.791	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.709	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.008
predicted_SO	0.386	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.323 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.158

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.3913	0.3913	0.4348	0.3913	0.0000	0.1304	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	0.3023	0.3182	0.3953	0.3023	0.0233	0.2093	0.0233	0.0465
season	0.60	38	-	158.000	52.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	28.000	28.000	4.000	15.000	0.3291	0.3457	0.5190	0.3291	0.0443	0.1772	0.0253	0.0949

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	4.2010
predicted_AVG	0.3218
predicted_BB	0.1190
predicted_H	1.3520
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3424
predicted_R	0.7960
predicted_RBI	0.7000
predicted_SLG	0.4648
predicted_SO	0.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1730	0.1796	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1580	4.2010	4.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3218	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.1190	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.3520	1.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1320	0.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3424	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7370	0.7960	0.7609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7000	0.6821	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4648	0.4649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3950	0.3820	0.3897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 42

All-history rows before 20260520: 42

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	5.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.200	0.177	0.200
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	1.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.200	0.129	0.200
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	3.000	-0.476	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.800	0.017	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.738	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.738	0.000	-0.738	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.738	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.018
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.002
predicted_AB	4.158	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	0.009
predicted_H	1.008	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	4.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.002
predicted_BB	0.297	0.003
predicted_H	1.030	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.004
predicted_R	0.613	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.618	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.672	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.3182	0.3600	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.2273	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.2439	0.2889	0.4390	0.2439	0.0244	0.1707	0.0732	0.0732
season	0.60	42	-	175.000	39.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	20.000	24.000	12.000	31.000	0.2229	0.2713	0.3829	0.2229	0.0343	0.1143	0.0686	0.1771

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	4.1450
predicted_AVG	0.2459
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2943
predicted_R	0.6180
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4146
predicted_SO	0.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1860	0.1606	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0440	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	4.1450	4.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2459	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3070	0.2946	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0190	1.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2943	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.6180	0.5903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6010	0.5945	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4146	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7380	0.5930	0.6786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Tim Tawa (694374) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 11

All-history rows before 20260520: 11

System season_avg: 0.1210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.121	0.333	0.129	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.500	0.019	-0.250
predicted_R	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.182	0.667	0.068	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.091	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.120	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.012
predicted_H	0.451	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.146	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.120	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.447	0.004
predicted_H	0.461	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.036	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.005
predicted_R	0.152	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.243	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.588	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.0625	0.2105	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.1000	0.2222	0.1667	0.1000	0.0667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	11	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1212	0.2308	0.1818	0.1212	0.0606	0.1515	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3710
predicted_AVG	0.1657
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2599
predicted_R	0.2630
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2669
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1890	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3710	3.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1657	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4170	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.5580	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0470	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2599	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0910	0.2630	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3020	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2669	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.6950	0.5934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.121

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260417_TOR@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	694374
playerID	694374
playerName	Tim Tawa
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	0.841	1.000
predicted_3B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_AB	3.477	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.477	3.000	0.523	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.278	0.500
predicted_BB	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	1.227	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.158	0.250
predicted_R	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.404	0.750
predicted_SO	0.523	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.523	0.000	0.477	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.068	-
predicted_AB	3.477	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.659	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.523	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.007
predicted_3B	0.056	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.548	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.651	-0.008
predicted_H	0.797	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.519	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.001
predicted_BB	0.657	0.006
predicted_H	0.815	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.007
predicted_R	0.429	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.011
predicted_SO	0.514	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3750	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	0.2162	0.3409	0.2703	0.2162	0.0000	0.0270	0.1892	0.1351
season	0.60	44	-	153.000	34.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	18.000	29.000	23.000	0.2222	0.3424	0.3464	0.2222	0.0131	0.0784	0.1895	0.1503

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2290
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3426
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.2290
predicted_SLG	0.3323
predicted_SO	0.5140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.1760	0.1660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0680	0.0390	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4770	3.6510	3.5482	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6590	0.6390	0.6508	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8360	0.7970	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3426	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.4190	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2290	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3323	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5230	0.5140	0.5193	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 25

All-history rows before 20260520: 25

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.680	4.000	-1.680	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.500	0.315	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	2.000	0.320	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	0.920	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.232	0.500	0.518	0.250
predicted_R	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.560	1.000	0.440	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.500	1.707	1.500
predicted_SO	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.320	1.000	-0.320	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.240	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.320	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.646	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	0.005
predicted_H	0.648	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.000
predicted_R	0.231	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	1.299	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.248	0.002
predicted_H	0.662	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.004
predicted_R	0.240	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	13.000	0.1562	0.2222	0.1875	0.1562	0.0000	0.1250	0.0938	0.4062
season	0.60	25	-	92.000	17.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	6.000	6.000	33.000	0.1848	0.2323	0.2935	0.1848	0.0217	0.1522	0.0652	0.3587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.1839
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2377
predicted_R	0.2170
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.2742
predicted_SO	1.2640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1290	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.5910	3.6460	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1839	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2540	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6610	0.6480	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2377	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2400	0.2170	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4570	0.4465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3200	1.2640	1.2986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.009	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.500	-0.054	-0.250
predicted_R	0.318	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.500	-0.075	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.807	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.026
predicted_H	0.935	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.807	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.342	0.003
predicted_H	0.956	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.002
predicted_R	0.363	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.730	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3810	0.3913	0.6190	0.3810	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2308	0.2619	0.3590	0.2308	0.0256	0.1282	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.60	22	-	83.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	8.000	16.000	0.2410	0.3043	0.3253	0.2410	0.0120	0.1084	0.0964	0.1928

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2614
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	1.0100
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3113
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.3921
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2150	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.8630	3.8070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2614	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2960	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0100	0.9354	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0940	0.0853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3113	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.4000	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4940	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3921	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7530	0.7368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	2.000	0.700	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.333	-0.351	-0.333
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.372	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.362	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.005
predicted_H	0.765	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.886	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.372	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.362	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.408	0.004
predicted_H	0.782	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.034
predicted_R	0.450	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.466	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.877	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.4375	0.3125	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3514	0.3939	0.2727	0.1818	0.1212	0.2727
season	0.60	10	-	33.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2727	0.3514	0.3939	0.2727	0.1818	0.1212	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3130
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4960
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3500
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.5520
predicted_SLG	0.4070
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.3130	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.4960	3.3625	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4140	0.4045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.9470	0.7652	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5030	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5520	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4070	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8560	0.8860	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jorge Barrosa (678489) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.462	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.485	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.015
predicted_H	0.655	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.456	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	1.117	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.462	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.184	0.002
predicted_H	0.669	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.028
predicted_R	0.474	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.016
predicted_SO	1.106	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3429	0.2000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.60	18	-	62.000	13.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	21.000	0.2097	0.2576	0.3871	0.2097	0.0806	0.0484	0.3387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3940
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.5570
predicted_AVG	0.2065
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2608
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3630
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.3940	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0280	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5570	3.4845	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2065	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2100	0.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7350	0.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2608	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4770	0.4558	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3140	0.2794	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3630	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0290	1.1175	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	678489
playerID	678489
playerName	Jorge Barrosa
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 31

All-history rows before 20260520: 31

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	3.000	0.290	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.333	0.454	0.417
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.097	1.000	1.903	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.333	0.419	0.417
predicted_R	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.677	1.000	0.323	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.333	0.341	0.417
predicted_SO	0.935	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.935	1.000	0.065	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.677	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.710	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.002
predicted_H	0.896	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.622	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.165	0.002
predicted_H	0.915	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.025
predicted_R	0.646	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.935	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.2286	0.2000	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3143
season	0.60	31	-	115.000	34.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	21.000	5.000	29.000	0.2957	0.3306	0.4087	0.2957	0.0261	0.1217	0.0435	0.2522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.2649
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3040
predicted_R	0.5360
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3625
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1460	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7090	3.7096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1660	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9820	0.8956	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6770	0.5360	0.6217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4060	0.3719	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3625	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.9580	0.9440	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Merrill Kelly (518876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.833	1.000	-0.833	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	6.000	4.000	1.000	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.717	9.000	-1.517	-4.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	21.000	31.000	14.000	20.000	6.000	6.3708	1.5169	0.7079	1.0449	0.4719	0.6742	0.2023
last_10	0.35	6	35.000	23.000	36.000	18.000	23.000	7.000	5.9143	1.5429	0.6571	1.0286	0.5143	0.6571	0.2000
season	0.20	6	35.000	23.000	36.000	18.000	23.000	7.000	5.9143	1.5429	0.6571	1.0286	0.5143	0.6571	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.9870
predicted_ER	4.1210
predicted_ERA	5.3681
predicted_H	6.8800
predicted_HR	1.1710
predicted_IP	7.0000
predicted_SO	5.5250
predicted_WHIP	1.4282

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.9870	2.9940	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	4.1210	2.9714	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3681	5.3681	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.8800	6.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.1710	1.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	7.0000	7.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.5250	4.6984	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4282	1.4282	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	31
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.91
Pitching_Flyouts	8
Pitching_Groundouts	12
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	9.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	73
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	518876
playerID	518876
playerName	Merrill Kelly
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1800
predicted_ERA	3.8794
predicted_H	0.3750
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3950
predicted_WHIP	1.2423

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1450	0.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1800	0.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8794	3.8794	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3750	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3950	0.8407	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2423	1.2423	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 2

All-history rows before 20260520: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.1830
predicted_ERA	4.6453
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3300
predicted_WHIP	1.3847

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1830	0.7927	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6453	4.6453	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3380	0.8321	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3300	0.8300	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3847	1.3847	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	4.4203
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3290
predicted_WHIP	1.3437

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1300	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1760	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4203	4.4203	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3520	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0110	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3290	0.8365	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3437	1.3437	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_ER	0.1550
predicted_ERA	4.1829
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3140
predicted_WHIP	1.3003

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1240	0.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1550	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1829	4.1829	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3090	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3140	0.8401	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3003	1.3003	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260520_TEX@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 COL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 7 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 4 - 5 COL	COL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 3 - 7 COL	COL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.80	3	8	1L	average	strong
Home COL	4-6	0.400	4.30	6.10	-18	1W	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	22-25	0.468	2	0.043	True
Home COL	19-29	0.396	-43	-0.896	True
Signal	-	-	-0.938	-1.047	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	TEX @ COL	6 - 7	COL	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	33	9	2	0	4	0	9
Player finalized COL	34	9	0	0	1	0	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.65	7.34	3.50	0.91	3.93	2.40	8.14
Player model fractional COL	31.85	6.81	3.14	0.63	3.44	2.63	7.60
Simulation box TEX	34	8	3	0	3	2	9
Simulation box COL	34	10	7	3	7	2	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	Jack Leiter	5.20	7	5	8	1	4.17	1.30	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.36	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1	0	1	1	1	3.26	1.06	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	0	0	0	1	0	4.66	1.40	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Tyler Alexander	0	0	0	0	0	3.36	1.29	True
Home COL	Starter	Kyle Freeland	4.20	3	4	6	1	6.71	1.57	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.20	0	1	1	1	3.07	1.14	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.20	0	2	1	0	2.94	1.25	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	0	2	0	0	5.09	1.58	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Michael Helman (680737) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 1

All-history rows before 20260520: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.709	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.540	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	1.187	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.709	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.056
predicted_BB	0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.553	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.217	-0.101
predicted_R	0.083	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.117
predicted_SO	1.179	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.60	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6880
predicted_AVG	0.2603
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3175
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.4028
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1650	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6880	2.7088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.9600	0.5396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1120	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3175	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4520	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.4320	0.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4028	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.8900	1.1867	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680737
playerID	680737
playerName	Michael Helman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	4.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.500	0.059	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.500	-0.007	-0.250
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	2.000	-0.316	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	3.000	-0.421	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.294	1.250	-0.044	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.158	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.594	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.032
predicted_H	0.658	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.286	0.002
predicted_H	0.675	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.011
predicted_R	0.348	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.103	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.1667	0.1892	0.2500	0.1667	0.0278	0.1389	0.0278	0.3333
season	0.60	19	-	68.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	22.000	0.1912	0.2568	0.2941	0.1912	0.0294	0.1177	0.0882	0.3235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.2093
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.2581
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.3341
predicted_SO	1.0270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0730	0.0603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.6200	3.5940	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.2280	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7580	0.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1240	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2581	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.3620	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5050	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3341	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.0270	1.1101	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.500	-0.236	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	2.000	-0.911	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.600	-0.283	-0.600
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	1.000	-0.644	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.468	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.750	-0.397	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.089	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.089	0.000	-0.089	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.244	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.468	-
predicted_SO	1.089	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	0.065
predicted_H	0.943	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.731	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.468	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.041	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.311	0.002
predicted_H	0.968	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.161	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.031
predicted_R	0.465	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.764	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.6471	0.3529	0.0588	0.2941	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.3235	0.4103	0.5588	0.3235	0.0588	0.3235	0.1471	0.2059
season	0.60	45	-	174.000	41.000	7.000	7.000	29.000	18.000	11.000	49.000	0.2356	0.2834	0.3966	0.2356	0.0402	0.1667	0.0632	0.2816

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.2722
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3415
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.7760
predicted_SLG	0.4677
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2140	0.1798	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.6970	3.7974	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2440	0.4020	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0060	0.9434	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1680	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3415	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5080	0.4442	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7760	0.7311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4680	0.4677	0.4679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0890	0.9710	1.0407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Andrew McCutchen (457705) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 12

All-history rows before 20260520: 12

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	3.000	2.167	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.065	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.333	-0.124	-0.133
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.333	-0.212	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.976	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	0.006
predicted_H	0.753	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.976	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.002
predicted_BB	0.257	0.002
predicted_H	0.772	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.001
predicted_R	0.360	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.014
predicted_SO	0.810	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=34.0, weight=0.213, BvP AVG=0.294)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2903	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.60	12	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2647	0.3243	0.4118	0.2647	0.0294	0.0882	0.0882	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2810
predicted_AVG	0.2576
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3177
predicted_R	0.3700
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.3744
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1340	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.2810	2.9759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2576	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2680	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8450	0.7531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3177	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3700	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2800	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3744	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7770	0.8151	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	457705
playerID	457705
playerName	Andrew McCutchen
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Sam Haggerty (664059) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.125	2.000	1.875	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.324	0.500
predicted_BB	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.278	0.500
predicted_R	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.176	0.000	0.574	0.750
predicted_SO	0.882	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.147	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.147	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	0.025
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.684	0.184
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.025
predicted_H	0.404	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.039	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.184	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.881	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.684	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.045
predicted_BB	0.173	0.001
predicted_H	0.414	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.206	-0.055
predicted_R	0.193	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.169	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.210	-0.084
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.3636
last_10	0.20	8	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.3529
season	0.60	8	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.1988
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2612
predicted_R	0.2870
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.2938
predicted_SO	0.8770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0950	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.1900	2.6844	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1470	0.2420	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.6340	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0640	0.0391	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2612	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1470	0.2870	0.1844	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.2490	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2938	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.8770	0.8807	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664059
playerID	664059
playerName	Sam Haggerty
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 44

All-history rows before 20260520: 44

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	3.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	-0.300	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	2.000	-0.295	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.159	1.000	-1.159	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.600	-0.355	-0.600
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.333	-0.471	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.614	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.614	0.000	-0.614	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.614	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.880	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	0.021
predicted_H	0.954	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.605	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.880	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.318	0.002
predicted_H	0.979	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.010
predicted_R	0.518	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.008
predicted_SO	0.602	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4000	0.2750	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.1250
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	51.000	14.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	13.000	27.000	0.3000	0.3548	0.4706	0.3000	0.0294	0.1177	0.0765	0.1588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9020
predicted_AVG	0.2535
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3192
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.3929
predicted_SO	0.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.2590	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.9020	3.8796	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2535	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.3460	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9890	0.9542	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3192	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.5210	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3220	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3929	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6140	0.5930	0.6054	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	0.826	1.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.913	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.913	4.000	-0.913	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.750	0.061	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.413	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.413	0.000	0.587	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	3.000	-0.065	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.109	1.000	-0.109	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.800	0.147	-0.300
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	3.000	0.543	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	3.000	0.652	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	1.500	0.244	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	1.000	-0.870	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.913	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.413	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.016
predicted_H	0.935	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.465	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.880	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.001
predicted_BB	0.399	0.003
predicted_H	0.959	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.101	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.011
predicted_R	0.486	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.002
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.913

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.3590	0.2051	0.0256	0.1026	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.60	46	-	180.000	49.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	16.000	21.000	19.000	40.000	0.2722	0.3529	0.4222	0.2722	0.0278	0.0889	0.1056	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.3255
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.4040
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1670	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0420	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9130	3.9110	3.9122	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2443	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4130	0.3740	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9560	0.9349	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1250	0.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3255	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4770	0.4653	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4510	0.4445	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4040	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.8950	0.8803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 7

All-history rows before 20260520: 7

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.375	0.417
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.417	0.417
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.524	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.500	0.667	0.833
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.429	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.524	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.409	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.504	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.011
predicted_H	0.961	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.579	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.524	0.000
predicted_SO	0.871	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.409	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.504	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	0.002
predicted_H	0.985	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.003
predicted_R	0.456	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.018
predicted_SO	0.866	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3810	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	7	-	24.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2917	0.3333	0.6667	0.2917	0.0833	0.2083	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	7	-	24.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2917	0.3333	0.6667	0.2917	0.0833	0.2083	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3630
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6820
predicted_AVG	0.2808
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	1.0340
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3347
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.5244
predicted_SO	0.9050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4290	0.3630	0.4095	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.6820	3.5039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3240	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0340	0.9608	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1730	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3347	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4540	0.4364	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6230	0.5787	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5240	0.5244	0.5241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.9050	0.8712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 34

All-history rows before 20260520: 34

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2966

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	5.000	0.529	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.600	-0.047	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	3.000	-0.029	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.600	-0.109	-0.350
predicted_R	0.559	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	4.000	-0.559	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	1.000	-0.225	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.016
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.596	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.039
predicted_H	1.007	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.316	0.002
predicted_H	1.033	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.003
predicted_R	0.593	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.633	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.791	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.5000	0.3636	0.0000	0.2727	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	0.2927	0.3095	0.4634	0.2927	0.0244	0.1951	0.0244	0.2683
season	0.60	34	-	118.000	35.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	19.000	12.000	26.000	0.2966	0.3588	0.4746	0.2966	0.0254	0.1610	0.1017	0.2203

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3350
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.7860
predicted_AVG	0.2971
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	1.1250
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.3416
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.6740
predicted_SLG	0.4623
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.3350	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0180	0.0246	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.7860	3.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2971	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2550	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.1250	1.0071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.5790	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6740	0.6051	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4623	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8430	0.7958	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jack Leiter (683004) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 9

All-history rows before 20260520: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.333	3.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_ER	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	1.000	4.333	6.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	5.111	3.000	2.889	5.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.311	7.000	-0.111	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	6.111	6.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	13.000	25.000	12.000	31.000	5.000	3.9886	1.2614	0.4432	0.8523	0.4091	1.0568	0.1704
last_10	0.35	9	49.200	24.000	46.000	21.000	55.000	8.000	4.3490	1.3490	0.4832	0.9262	0.4228	1.1074	0.1611
season	0.20	9	49.200	24.000	46.000	21.000	55.000	8.000	4.3490	1.3490	0.4832	0.9262	0.4228	1.1074	0.1611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3280
predicted_ER	2.6850
predicted_ERA	4.1667
predicted_H	5.2280
predicted_HR	0.8920
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.3031

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3280	1.6628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	7.0000	2.6850	4.8463	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1667	4.1667	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.2280	6.6164	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.8920	1.9478	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.9860	5.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3031	1.3031	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	8
R	7
ER	7
BB	1
SO	5
HR	3
BF	26
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	683004
playerID	683004
playerName	Jack Leiter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	-0.039	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	0.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	2.3562
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0280
predicted_WHIP	0.8492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3380	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3350	0.1416	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3562	2.3562	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7480	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0280	1.0118	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8492	0.8492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.135	1.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	3.0000	0.9167	0.3333	0.5833	0.3333	0.2500
season	0.20	17	20.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8000	0.7500	0.2000	0.5000	0.2500	0.4500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.2559
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8030
predicted_WHIP	1.0624

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3610	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4150	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2559	3.2559	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8580	0.9412	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8030	0.9184	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0624	1.0624	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.952	0.000	0.048	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	1.000	-0.805	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	1.000	-1.095	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	12.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	7.5600	1.6800	0.8400	1.4400	0.2400	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	21	19.000	10.000	20.000	7.000	23.000	3.000	4.7368	1.4211	0.5263	1.0526	0.3684	1.2105	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_ER	0.2950
predicted_ERA	4.6575
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6360
predicted_WHIP	1.3969

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1830	0.0749	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2950	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6575	4.6575	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6120	0.8413	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6360	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3969	1.3969	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	1.095	0.000	-1.095	0.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.914	1.000	-0.914	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	0.810	1.000	-0.810	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	1.4062	0.3750	1.1250	0.2812	0.6562	0.0938
season	0.20	21	22.000	5.000	23.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	2.0455	1.3182	0.2273	1.0454	0.2727	0.7727	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_ER	0.2400
predicted_ERA	3.3583
predicted_H	0.6050
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5700
predicted_WHIP	1.2917

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2400	0.1019	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3583	3.3583	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6050	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5700	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2917	1.2917	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: COL

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 36

All-history rows before 20260520: 36

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2993

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	3.000	1.194	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.301	0.600
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	0.000	1.861	3.000
predicted_HR	0.200	3.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	0.242	0.350
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	3.250	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	2.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.657	0.000	1.743	2.400
predicted_SO	1.028	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.028	0.000	-1.028	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.028	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.765	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.011
predicted_H	0.893	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.153	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.502	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.632	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.948	-0.080

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.003
predicted_H	0.859	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.153	0.000
predicted_HR	0.192	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.043
predicted_R	0.469	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.591	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.958	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	3.000	3.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3889	0.1944	0.0278	0.1944	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	36	-	137.000	41.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	27.000	21.000	10.000	37.000	0.2993	0.3576	0.6569	0.2993	0.0876	0.1971	0.0730	0.2701

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.1530
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.3261
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.6350
predicted_SLG	0.4888
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2220	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0460	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.7030	3.7646	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.3050	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.8970	0.8928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1530	0.1530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1990	0.1996	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3261	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.3810	0.5019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6350	0.6320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4888	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0280	0.8290	0.9481	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	3
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2338

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.850	4.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.266	0.500
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.186	0.500
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.175	0.500
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.862	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.153	0.003
predicted_H	0.844	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.188	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.862	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.151	-0.002
predicted_H	0.812	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.046
predicted_R	0.351	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.642	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.4211	0.2368	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.60	20	-	77.000	18.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2338	0.3140	0.3247	0.2338	0.0260	0.1169	0.0390	0.1558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8820
predicted_AVG	0.2235
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.1880
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.3517
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0860	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.8820	3.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2235	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1570	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8670	0.8439	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1880	0.1880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.4190	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4310	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3517	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6950	0.6356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2283

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.098	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.098	3.000	0.902	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.022	0.250
predicted_BB	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.707	0.000	0.293	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.268	0.000	1.732	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.193	0.500
predicted_SO	0.878	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.878	1.000	0.122	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.098	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.878	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.192	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.466	-0.046
predicted_H	0.695	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.192	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.461	-0.005
predicted_H	0.668	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.017
predicted_R	0.386	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.297	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.049
predicted_SO	0.844	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2571	0.3158	0.3714	0.2571	0.0000	0.1714	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.60	41	-	127.000	29.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	17.000	21.000	36.000	0.2283	0.3333	0.3071	0.2283	0.0079	0.0866	0.1653	0.2835

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2467
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3257
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.3403
predicted_SO	0.7720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2150	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0980	3.3320	3.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2467	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.3970	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8220	0.6951	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0310	0.0244	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3257	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.4090	0.4126	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3740	0.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3403	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8780	0.7720	0.8355	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 43

All-history rows before 20260520: 43

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2065

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	2.000	0.395	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	2.000	-0.256	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.500	-0.016	-0.250
predicted_R	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.279	0.000	0.721	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.279	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.534	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	0.042
predicted_H	0.752	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.287	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.907	-0.093

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.534	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.003
predicted_H	0.723	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.042
predicted_R	0.268	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.322	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.916	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.2857	0.4118	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.2143	0.0714
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2188
season	0.60	43	-	155.000	32.000	10.000	1.000	13.000	12.000	11.000	43.000	0.2065	0.2663	0.2903	0.2064	0.0065	0.0839	0.0710	0.2774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4290
predicted_AVG	0.2330
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3083
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3335
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2570	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.4290	3.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2330	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.3600	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7990	0.7521	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3083	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2790	0.2990	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3670	0.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3335	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7700	0.9066	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	4.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.689	1.000	1.311	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.422	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.689	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.004
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.704	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	0.016
predicted_H	0.882	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.110	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.004
predicted_H	0.849	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.110	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.037
predicted_R	0.409	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.427	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.691	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3721	0.3889	0.2500	0.0278	0.1111	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	45	-	168.000	45.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	19.000	18.000	31.000	0.2679	0.3474	0.4167	0.2679	0.0298	0.1369	0.1071	0.1845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6620
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.1100
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3435
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.3778
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1870	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.6620	3.7039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4400	0.4164	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9000	0.8823	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1100	0.1100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3435	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4220	0.4600	0.4376	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4670	0.4570	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6890	0.6770	0.6841	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 32

All-history rows before 20260520: 32

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	-0.081	0.200
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.130	0.200
predicted_R	0.281	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.058	0.400
predicted_SO	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	2.000	1.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.281	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.051	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.099	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	-0.009
predicted_H	0.863	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.295	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.099	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.002
predicted_H	0.830	-0.033
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.013
predicted_R	0.276	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.468	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.004
predicted_SO	0.672	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.3226	0.3438	0.4839	0.3226	0.0323	0.2581	0.0323	0.2581
season	0.60	32	-	96.000	27.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	9.000	6.000	20.000	0.2812	0.3301	0.4583	0.2812	0.0208	0.1667	0.0625	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.2580
predicted_AVG	0.2813
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3211
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.4229
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1780	0.2033	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0340	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2580	3.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2813	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1650	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9170	0.8634	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0646	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3211	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2810	0.3170	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5340	0.5007	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4229	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7290	0.6649	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-CF
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 38

All-history rows before 20260520: 38

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3259

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	4.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.500	0.341	0.167
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.158	2.000	0.842	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.500	0.361	0.250
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.500	0.207	0.167
predicted_SO	0.811	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.649	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.639	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000
predicted_H	1.086	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.003
predicted_H	1.045	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.040
predicted_R	0.409	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.434	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.807	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.3824	0.4615	0.5000	0.3824	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.60	37	-	135.000	44.000	12.000	2.000	19.000	15.000	11.000	30.000	0.3259	0.3810	0.4593	0.3259	0.0148	0.1407	0.0815	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3280
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.3227
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3795
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4529
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.3280	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6490	3.6250	3.6394	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1700	1.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3795	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4880	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5020	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4529	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.7810	0.7990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 33

All-history rows before 20260520: 33

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2328

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.515	3.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	1.121	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	1.000	-0.121	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.515	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.248	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.547	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.045
predicted_H	0.560	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.238	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.119	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.547	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.004
predicted_H	0.538	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.003
predicted_R	0.379	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.223	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.227	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.130	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.152 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.60	33	-	116.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	0.2328	0.3154	0.3276	0.2328	0.0172	0.1035	0.1207	0.3190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.1728
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.6210
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2360
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.2476
predicted_SO	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0780	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0180	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5150	3.5960	3.5470	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1728	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.3100	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6210	0.5599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3310	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2660	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2480	0.2476	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.1160	1.1190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Brett Sullivan (664954) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 20

All-history rows before 20260520: 20

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	0.000	-1.300	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	-	-0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.158	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	1.850	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	-	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.273	-	-0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.895	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.158	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.512	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.180	0.022
predicted_H	0.508	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.075	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.000
predicted_R	0.202	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	0.935	0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.178	-0.002
predicted_H	0.488	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.181	-0.056
predicted_R	0.189	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.944	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4706
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1389	0.2195	0.2222	0.1389	0.1111	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.60	19	-	66.000	13.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	17.000	0.1970	0.2394	0.2727	0.1970	0.1061	0.0454	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.1752
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0750
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2366
predicted_R	0.2790
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.2640
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2070	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.5780	3.5118	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1752	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.2190	0.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.6270	0.5079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0750	0.0750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0340	0.0251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2366	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1580	0.2790	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3780	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	1.0040	0.9346	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664954
playerID	664954
playerName	Brett Sullivan
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Freeland (607536) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 8

All-history rows before 20260520: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	4.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.375	7.000	-0.375	-4.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.500	8.000	0.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.062	3.200	0.138	1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.875	3.000	0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.100	24.000	34.000	9.000	23.000	7.000	8.8767	1.7671	0.9863	1.3973	0.3699	0.9452	0.2877
last_10	0.35	7	33.200	27.000	44.000	12.000	31.000	7.000	7.2178	1.6634	0.8020	1.3069	0.3564	0.9208	0.2079
season	0.20	7	33.200	27.000	44.000	12.000	31.000	7.000	7.2178	1.6634	0.8020	1.3069	0.3564	0.9208	0.2079

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8400
predicted_ER	3.6960
predicted_ERA	6.7143
predicted_H	5.9150
predicted_HR	1.0460
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6820
predicted_WHIP	1.5654

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8400	1.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.6960	2.8038	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7143	6.7143	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.9150	5.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0460	0.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.6820	4.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5654	1.5654	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	7.22
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	607536
playerID	607536
playerName	Kyle Freeland
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 13

All-history rows before 20260520: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.154	1.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.946	1.000	-0.746	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	-0.923	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.6774	0.0968
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	4.000	13.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.6190	0.3333	0.7619	0.0476
season	0.20	13	28.100	4.000	15.000	8.000	25.000	1.000	1.2706	0.8118	0.1412	0.5294	0.2823	0.8823	0.0353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.5870
predicted_ERA	3.0697
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4540
predicted_WHIP	1.1361

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6230	0.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5870	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0697	3.0697	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3330	1.6991	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4540	1.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1361	1.1361	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 19

All-history rows before 20260520: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.211	1.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.063	1.000	0.137	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.421	1.000	0.579	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.3529	0.7059	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6154	0.5385	1.4615	0.0769
season	0.20	19	23.000	10.000	23.000	11.000	27.000	2.000	3.9130	1.4783	0.4348	1.0000	0.4783	1.1739	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_ER	0.4120
predicted_ERA	2.9365
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6120	0.2626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4120	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9365	2.9365	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9660	0.9854	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3170	1.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2500	1.2500	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 18

All-history rows before 20260520: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.889	3.000	-0.889	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.389	1.000	-1.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	0.000	0.078	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	1.111	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.9375	0.7500	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	9.9000	2.3000	1.1000	1.6000	0.7000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	18.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	16.000	2.000	6.5000	1.9444	0.7222	1.3333	0.6111	0.8889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_ER	0.5660
predicted_ERA	5.0905
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9660
predicted_WHIP	1.5824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5140	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5660	0.8249	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0905	5.0905	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0680	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9660	1.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5824	1.5824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260520_TOR@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.548273, "home_win_probability": 0.548273, "away_win_probability": 0.451727, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence": 0.548273, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 3 - 4 NYY	NYY	0.548	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 2 - 4 NYY	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	4-6	0.400	4.90	4.20	7	2L	average	average
Home NYY	4-6	0.400	4	4.50	-5	2W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	21-27	0.438	-13	-0.271	True
Home NYY	30-19	0.612	70	1.429	True
Signal	-	-	1.699	1.962	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-19	TOR @ NYY	4 - 5	NYY	1	close
2026-05-18	TOR @ NYY	6 - 7	NYY	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target NYY	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	33	9	3	0	1	1	7
Player finalized NYY	33	8	6	0	5	6	9
Player model fractional TOR	32.66	7.47	3.76	0.93	3.68	2.72	6.67
Player model fractional NYY	31.87	7.35	5.20	1.41	4.25	5.36	8.59
Simulation box TOR	33	6	2	1	2	3	9
Simulation box NYY	31	7	4	2	4	3	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Trey Yesavage	5.10	2	7	2	2	2.98	1.31	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1.20	1	1	4	1	2.18	1.25	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	1	0	1	0	3.33	1.38	True
Home NYY	Starter	Cam Schlittler	6.10	1	6	3	2	2.12	0.97	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1	0	1	1	0	6.25	1.61	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1	1	1	2	1	2.70	1.14	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.23	1.25	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 14

All-history rows before 20260520: 14

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3261

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.333	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	1.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.333	0.133	0.167
predicted_R	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	1.000	0.786	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.333	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SO	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	1.000	1.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.391	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.008
predicted_H	0.890	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.377	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.495	0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.391	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.219	-0.002
predicted_H	0.865	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.093	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.028
predicted_R	0.247	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.359	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.500	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	14	-	46.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3261	0.3673	0.4130	0.3261	0.0217	0.1304	0.0652	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2803
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.0080
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.3280
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.4034
predicted_SO	0.6240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1070	0.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.5960	3.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2803	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2360	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0080	0.8903	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1090	0.0964	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.3480	0.2594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4290	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4034	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.6240	0.4951	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 42

All-history rows before 20260520: 42

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.762	5.000	0.238	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.800	-0.272	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	4.000	-1.024	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.800	-0.343	-0.800
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.800	-0.430	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.738	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.738	0.000	1.262	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.502	-
predicted_SO	0.738	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.015
predicted_3B	0.041	0.017
predicted_AB	3.762	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.005
predicted_H	1.218	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	0.540	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.000
predicted_SO	0.725	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.003
predicted_H	1.184	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.019
predicted_R	0.514	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.732	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.5000	0.5500	0.7222	0.5000	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.4103	0.4524	0.5897	0.4103	0.0256	0.1538	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.60	42	-	158.000	43.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	15.000	22.000	15.000	31.000	0.2722	0.3429	0.4304	0.2722	0.0316	0.0949	0.0949	0.1962

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.7630
predicted_AVG	0.3306
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3915
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.5024
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2280	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0660	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7620	3.7630	3.7624	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3306	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3450	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.2440	1.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3915	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.5630	0.5399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4220	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5020	0.5024	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7380	0.7050	0.7246	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 46

All-history rows before 20260520: 46

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.717	4.000	-0.717	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	1.000	0.522	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.200	-0.064	0.050
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.587	0.000	-0.587	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	1.239	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.239	1.000	0.761	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.717	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.239	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.712	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	0.000
predicted_H	0.709	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	1.234	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.005
predicted_H	0.689	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.010
predicted_R	0.537	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.431	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.246	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1111	0.2273	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	0.1622	0.2558	0.2162	0.1622	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.3513
season	0.60	46	-	171.000	39.000	5.000	10.000	27.000	25.000	22.000	57.000	0.2281	0.3144	0.4327	0.2281	0.0585	0.1579	0.1286	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.1986
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	0.7360
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.2879
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3443
predicted_SO	1.2280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.1500	0.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7170	3.7050	3.7121	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1986	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.4780	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7360	0.7089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1290	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2879	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.5930	0.5635	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4710	0.4527	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3443	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2390	1.2280	1.2345	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2849

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.978	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.978	3.000	0.022	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.333	0.215	0.167
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	1.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.190	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.356	4.000	-0.356	-4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	1.333	0.092	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.978	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.908	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.186	0.030
predicted_H	0.961	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.396	0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.908	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.002
predicted_H	0.934	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.036
predicted_R	0.438	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.467	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.400	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.978

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.2703	0.3000	0.4324	0.2703	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.60	45	-	179.000	51.000	13.000	3.000	16.000	18.000	7.000	15.000	0.2849	0.3102	0.4078	0.2849	0.0168	0.0894	0.0391	0.0838

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.2682
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.4111
predicted_SO	0.4870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.1680	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9780	3.8060	3.9076	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2682	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.2290	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0210	0.9614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1240	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3087	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5450	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5200	0.4905	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4111	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.4870	0.3961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 28

All-history rows before 20260520: 28

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.929	5.000	0.071	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.200	0.059	0.050
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.020	0.050
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.200	-0.068	0.050
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.953	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.020
predicted_H	0.753	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.004
predicted_H	0.732	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.007
predicted_R	0.378	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.280	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.864	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.929

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.2857	0.1429	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2857	0.1905	0.0238	0.0476	0.0476	0.2143
season	0.60	28	-	110.000	21.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	11.000	24.000	0.1909	0.2705	0.3182	0.1909	0.0273	0.0727	0.1000	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9900
predicted_AVG	0.1937
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.2619
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3232
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1400	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9290	3.9900	3.9529	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1937	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.3420	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7730	0.7529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1240	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2619	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.4600	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2990	0.2935	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8550	0.8562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2816

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.702	3.000	-0.702	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.052	0.333
predicted_BB	0.489	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	0.000	0.511	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.043	0.000	-0.043	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.200	0.129	0.300
predicted_R	0.596	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.596	0.000	-0.596	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	-0.040	0.333
predicted_SO	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.702	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.596	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.489	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.721	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	-0.037
predicted_H	0.855	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.606	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.496	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.004
predicted_H	0.831	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.009
predicted_R	0.577	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.500	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.625)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2273	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2444	0.2368	0.1579	0.0263	0.1316	0.1053	0.1053
season	0.60	47	-	174.000	49.000	7.000	3.000	21.000	28.000	23.000	23.000	0.2816	0.3713	0.3736	0.2816	0.0172	0.1207	0.1322	0.1322

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.2337
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3156
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.3427
predicted_SO	0.5050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1490	0.1020	0.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7020	3.7490	3.7214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2337	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.3980	0.4515	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8760	0.8548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1010	0.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3156	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5960	0.6190	0.6055	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4520	0.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3427	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4890	0.5050	0.4956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.136	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.136	4.000	0.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.250	-0.246	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	1.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.325	-0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.250	-0.435	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.045	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	2.000	0.955	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.136	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.045	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.196	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.021
predicted_H	0.683	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.366	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.196	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.004
predicted_H	0.664	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.040
predicted_R	0.426	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.065
predicted_SO	1.030	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	0.2903	0.4054	0.5161	0.2903	0.0645	0.2258	0.1935	0.2903
season	0.60	22	-	69.000	17.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	8.000	23.000	0.2464	0.3247	0.4348	0.2464	0.0580	0.1449	0.1159	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2980
predicted_AVG	0.2455
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3321
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.4019
predicted_SO	0.9780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.0800	0.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1360	3.2980	3.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2455	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.4200	0.3846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8090	0.6832	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1430	0.1221	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3321	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4350	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4290	0.3664	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4019	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0450	0.9780	1.0203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2705

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.486	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.486	3.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.333	-0.020	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.333	-0.056	-0.083
predicted_R	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.333	0.574	0.667
predicted_SO	0.743	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	0.000	-0.743	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.486	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.420	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.160	-0.011
predicted_H	0.900	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.420	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.001
predicted_H	0.875	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.034
predicted_R	0.336	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.420	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.737	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.3846	0.3846	0.3846	0.3846	0.0000	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0333	0.1333	0.0333	0.2667
season	0.60	35	-	122.000	33.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	13.000	6.000	26.000	0.2705	0.3060	0.4262	0.2705	0.0410	0.1475	0.0492	0.2131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.2892
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3232
predicted_R	0.3250
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.4097
predicted_SO	0.7110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0820	0.1013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4860	3.3190	3.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2892	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.1430	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9600	0.8997	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1040	0.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.3250	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4720	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4097	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.7110	0.7303	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 41

All-history rows before 20260520: 41

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2483

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.634	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.634	3.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	1.000	-0.902	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.500	-0.278	-0.500
predicted_R	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.317	1.000	-0.317	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.634	1.000	-0.634	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.333	-0.409	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.634	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.122	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.317	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.634	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.599	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.136	0.014
predicted_H	0.711	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.325	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.657	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.135	-0.001
predicted_H	0.692	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.096	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.221	-0.056
predicted_R	0.310	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.558	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.663	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.2059	0.2432	0.4118	0.2059	0.0588	0.2941	0.0294	0.2353
season	0.60	41	-	149.000	37.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	26.000	13.000	5.000	26.000	0.2483	0.2785	0.4094	0.2483	0.0336	0.1745	0.0336	0.1745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.5480
predicted_AVG	0.2303
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.2767
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.6700
predicted_SLG	0.3809
predicted_SO	0.6910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1660	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6340	3.5480	3.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2303	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1220	0.1570	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8170	0.7114	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1130	0.0993	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2767	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3170	0.3370	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6700	0.5865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3809	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6340	0.6910	0.6570	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Trey Yesavage (702056) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 4

All-history rows before 20260520: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	2.000	1.250	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.250	4.000	-2.250	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.775	6.000	0.325	-0.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	6.000	1.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	19.100	3.000	17.000	8.000	21.000	1.3966	1.2931	0.1552	0.8793	0.4138	1.0862
last_10	0.35	4	19.100	3.000	17.000	8.000	21.000	1.3966	1.2931	0.1552	0.8793	0.4138	1.0862
season	0.20	4	19.100	3.000	17.000	8.000	21.000	1.3966	1.2931	0.1552	0.8793	0.4138	1.0862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9110
predicted_ER	1.6040
predicted_ERA	2.9755
predicted_H	4.4280
predicted_HR	0.3520
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.3067

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9110	1.9630	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.6040	1.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9755	2.9755	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.4280	3.0082	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3520	0.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.9110	6.1325	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3067	1.3067	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	7
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	3
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	702056
playerID	702056
playerName	Trey Yesavage
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.391	0.000	0.609	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.043	0.000	0.957	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.826	0.000	3.174	4.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.961	1.000	0.239	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.522	1.000	-0.522	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.0000	1.1667	0.0000	0.8333	0.3333	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	0.0000	1.2188	0.0000	0.7500	0.4688	1.3125
season	0.20	23	24.200	1.000	19.000	9.000	35.000	0.3649	1.1351	0.0405	0.7703	0.3649	1.4189

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.2600
predicted_ERA	2.1782
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2488

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4110	0.7429	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2600	0.6770	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1782	2.1782	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.9310	2.6605	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0710	0.5945	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1510	1.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2488	1.2488	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	10
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.36
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 22

All-history rows before 20260520: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.9286	1.7143	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	1.0000	0.3333	1.0000
season	0.20	22	21.100	4.000	17.000	7.000	14.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7969	0.3281	0.6562

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.3700
predicted_ERA	3.3294
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9140
predicted_WHIP	1.3843

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4210	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3700	0.7347	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3294	3.3294	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9630	0.9844	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0710	0.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9140	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3843	1.3843	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: NYY

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.1660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1655

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.166	0.333	0.501	0.333
predicted_BB	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.500	0.453	0.250
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.303	0.333	1.697	1.667
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.653	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.662	-0.038
predicted_H	0.571	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.670	0.008
predicted_H	0.579	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.002
predicted_R	0.576	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.474	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.847	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	0.1892	0.3023	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1892	0.1622	0.2703
season	0.60	40	-	145.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	24.000	28.000	32.000	0.1655	0.2971	0.3034	0.1655	0.0276	0.1517	0.1931	0.2207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6930
predicted_AVG	0.1708
predicted_BB	0.6070
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.2873
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.5070
predicted_SLG	0.2821
predicted_SO	0.9410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1210	0.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.6930	3.6527	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1708	0.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.6070	0.6621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6310	0.5711	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2873	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5020	0.5601	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5070	0.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2821	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9410	0.8574	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.166

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 40

All-history rows before 20260520: 40

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2914

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	4.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.250	-0.291	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.250	-0.393	-0.250
predicted_R	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.775	2.000	-0.775	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.600	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.656	1.000	-0.656	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.075	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.075	1.000	-0.075	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.850	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.600	-
predicted_SO	1.075	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.871	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	-0.081
predicted_H	1.008	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.361	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.823	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.674	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	1.049	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.525	0.006
predicted_H	1.023	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.367	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.011
predicted_R	0.846	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.693	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.610	0.010
predicted_SO	1.036	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.6957	0.2609	0.1304	0.1739	0.0000	0.1739
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.5116	0.2093	0.0930	0.1395	0.0465	0.2558
season	0.60	40	-	151.000	44.000	10.000	15.000	31.000	34.000	24.000	43.000	0.2914	0.3933	0.6556	0.2914	0.0993	0.2053	0.1589	0.2848

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0100
predicted_AVG	0.2653
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.3770
predicted_OBP	0.3406
predicted_R	0.7840
predicted_RBI	0.7100
predicted_SLG	0.6004
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2100	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	4.0100	3.8708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2653	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4020	0.5193	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0640	1.0083	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3770	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8500	0.7840	0.8231	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7100	0.6745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6000	0.6004	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0750	1.0110	1.0489	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 49

All-history rows before 20260520: 49

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2614

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.592	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.592	3.000	-0.592	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.072	0.333
predicted_BB	0.755	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.755	1.000	0.245	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	0.000	0.061	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.250	0.105	0.250
predicted_R	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.816	1.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.612	0.000	-0.612	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.580	0.000	-0.246	0.333
predicted_SO	1.245	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.245	3.000	-1.245	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.592	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.755	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.816	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	1.245	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.611	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.733	-0.022
predicted_H	0.867	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.783	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	1.220	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.741	0.009
predicted_H	0.879	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.206	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.003
predicted_R	0.805	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.205	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	12.000	0.2286	0.3864	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0286	0.2571	0.3429
season	0.60	49	-	176.000	46.000	8.000	16.000	30.000	40.000	37.000	61.000	0.2614	0.3953	0.5795	0.2614	0.0909	0.1704	0.2102	0.3466

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_OBP	0.3692
predicted_R	0.7370
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.4650
predicted_SO	1.1840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1780	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5920	3.6380	3.6111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2446	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7550	0.7010	0.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8900	0.8666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2070	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3692	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8160	0.7370	0.7833	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4000	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4650	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2450	1.1840	1.2197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 47

All-history rows before 20260520: 47

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.064	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.638	3.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	-0.019	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.681	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.681	1.000	-0.681	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.979	1.000	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.500	-0.129	-0.250
predicted_R	0.638	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	0.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.638	0.000	-0.638	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.333	-0.224	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.553	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.553	0.000	1.447	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.064	-
predicted_AB	3.638	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.681	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.052	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.648	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.686	0.005
predicted_H	0.905	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.567	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	3.648	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.694	0.008
predicted_H	0.918	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.134	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.002
predicted_R	0.657	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.573	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.014
predicted_SO	0.561	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3636	0.3143	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.2571	0.1429
season	0.60	47	-	171.000	46.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	30.000	30.000	32.000	26.000	0.2690	0.3786	0.4737	0.2690	0.0351	0.1754	0.1871	0.1520

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.6630
predicted_AVG	0.2528
predicted_BB	0.6930
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3689
predicted_R	0.6410
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.4360
predicted_SO	0.5880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.1980	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0640	0.0350	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6380	3.6630	3.6483	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2528	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6810	0.6930	0.6860	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9260	0.9049	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1340	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3689	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.6410	0.6392	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5690	0.5578	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4360	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5530	0.5880	0.5674	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 17

All-history rows before 20260520: 17

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	4.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.500	-0.290	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.059	2.000	-1.059	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.600	-0.389	-0.600
predicted_R	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.661	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.645	1.500	-0.645	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.941	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.320	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.661	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.063	0.004
predicted_AB	3.695	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.002
predicted_H	1.107	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.275	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000
predicted_R	0.755	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.633	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.661	0.000
predicted_SO	0.918	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.063	0.000
predicted_AB	3.695	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.474	0.005
predicted_H	1.124	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.101	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.022
predicted_R	0.776	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.640	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.907	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.5000	0.6000	1.1000	0.5000	0.1500	0.3000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	0.3846	0.4667	0.8205	0.3846	0.1026	0.2051	0.1282	0.2051
season	0.60	17	-	62.000	18.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	13.000	8.000	16.000	0.2903	0.3889	0.6452	0.2903	0.0806	0.1774	0.1290	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0700
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.3197
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	1.2080
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.3000
predicted_OBP	0.4051
predicted_R	0.7370
predicted_RBI	0.6920
predicted_SLG	0.6610
predicted_SO	0.8780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.2500	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0700	0.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.7780	3.6947	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3200	0.3197	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4640	0.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.2080	1.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3000	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4051	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	0.7370	0.7548	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6920	0.6335	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6610	0.6610	0.6610	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.8780	0.9181	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 6

All-history rows before 20260520: 6

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	4.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.039	0.083
predicted_BB	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.333	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.250	-0.167	0.083
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	0.922	1.083
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	1.167	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.418	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.322	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.984	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.080	-0.087
predicted_H	0.750	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.322	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.984	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.035
predicted_BB	1.092	0.013
predicted_H	0.761	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.036
predicted_R	0.377	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.681	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	0.3571	0.5714	0.5000	0.3571	0.2143	0.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.20	6	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.2941	0.5000	0.4118	0.2941	0.1765	0.4118	0.2353
season	0.60	6	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.2941	0.5000	0.4118	0.2941	0.1765	0.4118	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2960
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2898
predicted_BB	0.8630
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.4183
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.4359
predicted_SO	0.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2960	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.3580	2.9839	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2898	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.1670	0.8630	1.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.9730	0.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0600	0.0457	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4180	0.4183	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4500	0.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5440	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4359	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7430	0.6888	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 33

All-history rows before 20260520: 33

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1696

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.394	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.394	4.000	0.606	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.500	0.080	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.576	2.000	0.424	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.218	0.500	0.032	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	3.000	-0.364	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.268	1.250	-0.018	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.121	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	0.000	-0.121	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.394	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.201	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.464	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.192	-0.020
predicted_H	0.523	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.201	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.194	0.002
predicted_H	0.531	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.198	-0.003
predicted_R	0.295	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.093	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1389	0.0000	0.3056
season	0.60	33	-	112.000	19.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	9.000	7.000	37.000	0.1696	0.2185	0.2679	0.1696	0.0268	0.1071	0.0625	0.3304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.1650
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.2007
predicted_R	0.3090
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.2946
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.0650	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3940	3.5740	3.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1650	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.1600	0.1917	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5900	0.5230	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1310	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2010	0.2007	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3090	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4430	0.3925	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2946	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.0820	1.1057	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 35

All-history rows before 20260520: 35

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.114	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.114	2.000	-0.114	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.159	0.333
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.333	0.039	0.000
predicted_R	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.266	0.000	0.067	0.333
predicted_SO	0.971	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.971	2.000	0.029	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.971	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.183	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.496	-0.047
predicted_H	0.451	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.318	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.126	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.060	0.089

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.183	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.502	0.006
predicted_H	0.458	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.327	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.208	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.047	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	16.000	0.0968	0.2000	0.0968	0.0968	0.0000	0.0000	0.1290	0.5161
season	0.60	35	-	109.000	19.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	19.000	34.000	0.1743	0.2946	0.2661	0.1743	0.0275	0.0459	0.1743	0.3119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2880
predicted_AVG	0.1657
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_H	0.5450
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2605
predicted_R	0.3250
predicted_RBI	0.1510
predicted_SLG	0.2391
predicted_SO	1.1960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0440	0.0349	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1140	3.2880	3.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1657	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.4250	0.4964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.5450	0.4512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2605	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.3250	0.3183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1510	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2391	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9710	1.1960	1.0598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 45

All-history rows before 20260520: 45

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	3.000	-0.756	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.069	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	2.000	-0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.489	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.758	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	0.020
predicted_H	1.067	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.000
predicted_R	0.526	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	1.227	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.470	0.006
predicted_H	1.082	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.008
predicted_R	0.541	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.213	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.4737	0.5652	0.7368	0.4737	0.0526	0.2105	0.2105	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	0.3243	0.4048	0.5135	0.3243	0.0270	0.1351	0.1351	0.4324
season	0.60	45	-	169.000	40.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	22.000	20.000	55.000	0.2367	0.3194	0.3787	0.2367	0.0296	0.1065	0.1183	0.3254

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7600
predicted_AVG	0.2938
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	1.1050
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.3747
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.4663
predicted_SO	1.2350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2670	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.7600	3.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2938	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4930	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1050	1.0667	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1260	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3747	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4890	0.5790	0.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4960	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4663	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.2350	1.2273	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cam Schlittler (693645) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 10

All-history rows before 20260520: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.100	2.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.600	2.000	-0.600	1.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.860	6.200	0.240	-0.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.800	9.000	-0.800	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.100	3.000	18.000	8.000	32.000	2.000	0.8351	0.8041	0.0928	0.5567	0.2474	0.9897	0.0619
last_10	0.35	10	60.000	9.000	36.000	11.000	68.000	2.000	1.3500	0.7833	0.1500	0.6000	0.1833	1.1333	0.0333
season	0.20	10	60.000	9.000	36.000	11.000	68.000	2.000	1.3500	0.7833	0.1500	0.6000	0.1833	1.1333	0.0333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6980
predicted_ER	1.4690
predicted_ERA	2.1196
predicted_H	4.3460
predicted_HR	0.4760
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.3570
predicted_WHIP	0.9692

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6980	1.8462	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.4690	1.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1196	2.1196	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3460	3.6854	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4760	0.7332	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	6.3570	6.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9692	0.9692	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	6
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.35
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	106
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	693645
playerID	693645
playerName	Cam Schlittler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 21

All-history rows before 20260520: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.190	1.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	2.000	-0.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	11.5714	2.3571	1.2857	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	13.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	6.9677	1.6452	0.7742	1.2581	0.3871	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	21	21.000	12.000	25.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	5.1429	1.6190	0.5714	1.1905	0.4286	1.1905	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_ER	0.6950
predicted_ERA	6.2546
predicted_H	1.1280
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0760
predicted_WHIP	1.6097

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4820	0.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6950	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2546	6.2546	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1280	1.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1980	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0760	1.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6097	1.6097	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.565	1.000	0.435	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.217	0.000	0.783	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.609	0.000	1.391	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.626	1.000	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.217	3.000	-0.217	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6667	0.0000	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.6000	0.4000	1.1000	0.0000
season	0.20	23	20.000	5.000	14.000	13.000	28.000	2.000	2.2500	1.3500	0.2500	0.7000	0.6500	1.4000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.3200
predicted_ERA	2.7018
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1630
predicted_WHIP	1.1417

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4230	0.7609	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3200	0.7182	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7018	2.7018	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7940	1.5002	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1630	1.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1417	1.1417	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260520: 23

All-history rows before 20260520: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	1.000	-0.483	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.348	1.000	0.652	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.9000	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	1.2857	1.2857	0.1429	1.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
season	0.20	23	19.200	3.000	14.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	1.3729	0.8644	0.1525	0.7119	0.1525	0.4068	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2500
predicted_ERA	3.2308
predicted_H	0.6560
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.2498

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2140	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2500	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2308	3.2308	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6560	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5000	0.7937	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2498	1.2498	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.37
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260519_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19