Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260519

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260519_ATL@MIA 20260519_BAL@TB 20260519_BOS@KC 20260519_CHW@SEA 20260519_CIN@PHI 20260519_CLE@DET 20260519_HOU@MIN 20260519_LAD@SD 20260519_MIL@CHC 20260519_NYM@WAS 20260519_OAK@LAA 20260519_PIT@STL 20260519_SF@ARI 20260519_TEX@COL 20260519_TOR@NYY

20260519_ATL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 7 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 3, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ATL 4 - 5 MIA	MIA	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ATL 5 - 7 MIA	MIA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ATL	6-4	0.600	3.70	3	7	1L	average	strong
Home MIA	5-5	0.500	5.20	4.70	5	1W	hot	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ATL	32-16	0.667	86	1.792	True
Home MIA	22-26	0.458	-1	-0.021	True
Signal	-	-	-1.812	-2.125	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	ATL @ MIA	0 - 12	MIA	12	blowout
2026-04-15	MIA @ ATL	3 - 6	ATL	3	blowout
2026-04-14	MIA @ ATL	5 - 6	ATL	1	close
2026-04-13	MIA @ ATL	10 - 4	MIA	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ATL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ATL	33	9	4	0	3	1	8
Player finalized MIA	31	9	1	0	0	2	9
Player model fractional ATL	31.46	7.04	3.84	0.96	3.50	2.55	7.01
Player model fractional MIA	31.87	6.71	3.56	0.64	2.94	2.55	8.38
Simulation box ATL	35	8	5	0	5	3	10
Simulation box MIA	32	8	7	3	7	2	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ATL	Starter	Martín Pérez	5.10	1	4	2	1	2.97	1.08	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1.20	1	0	1	0	2.74	1.14	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1	5	1	5	1	2.43	1.12	True
Home MIA	Starter	Braxton Garrett	1.10	4	2	7	3	5.70	1.59	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.91	1.26	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	2	1	0	2.75	1.30	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.86	1.15	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Anthony Bender	1	0	2	0	0	2.78	0.91	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	1.20	1	1	0	0	5.68	1.41	True
Home MIA	Reliever	Lake Bachar	1	0	1	0	0	3.49	1.08	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ATL

José Azócar (640492) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 5

All-history rows before 20260519: 5

System season_avg: 0.4170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.400	3.000	1.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.417	0.333	0.083	0.167
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.462	0.500	0.038	0.000
predicted_R	0.208	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.583	0.333	-0.083	0.167
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.417	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.208	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.384	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.716	0.216
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	0.013
predicted_H	0.736	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.254	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.664	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.384	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.716	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.225	0.004
predicted_H	0.760	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.017
predicted_R	0.269	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.034
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4615	0.5833	0.4167	0.0833	0.2500
last_10	0.20	5	-	12.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4615	0.5833	0.4167	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.60	5	-	12.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4615	0.5833	0.4167	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.3780
predicted_AVG	0.2964
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3525
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.4527
predicted_SO	0.7830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4170	0.2830	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3780	2.7159	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2964	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.2600	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	1.0010	0.7363	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0760	0.0564	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3525	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2080	0.3950	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2940	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4527	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7830	0.6639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.417

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	640492
playerID	640492
playerName	José Azócar
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ronald Acuña Jr. (660670) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	2.000	1.265	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.252	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.500	-0.362	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.500	-0.378	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.912	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	0.000	1.088	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.412	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.027
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.721	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.563	-0.025
predicted_H	0.980	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.521	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.304	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	0.934	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.003
predicted_BB	0.574	0.011
predicted_H	1.011	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.006
predicted_R	0.552	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.916	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	0.2778	0.3864	0.4444	0.2778	0.0278	0.1111	0.1944	0.2778
season	0.60	34	-	127.000	32.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	17.000	20.000	31.000	0.2520	0.3618	0.3780	0.2520	0.0158	0.0709	0.1575	0.2441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.7010
predicted_AVG	0.2686
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3630
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.4124
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.3010	0.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.7010	3.7213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2686	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.5260	0.5631	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9940	0.9796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3630	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5520	0.5209	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3110	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4120	0.4124	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.9670	0.9341	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260502_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	660670
playerID	660670
playerName	Ronald Acuña Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2455

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	1.289	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.154	0.150
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.911	1.000	1.089	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.096	0.150
predicted_R	0.422	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.422	0.000	0.578	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.250	0.017	0.150
predicted_SO	0.689	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.689	0.000	1.311	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.422	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.689	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.743	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	-0.008
predicted_H	0.762	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.396	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.001
predicted_BB	0.264	0.005
predicted_H	0.786	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.420	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.020
predicted_SO	0.707	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1750	0.2143	0.2750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	41.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	25.000	19.000	12.000	31.000	0.2455	0.3039	0.3832	0.2455	0.0180	0.1497	0.0719	0.1856

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2092
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2623
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.3459
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1590	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0250	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7890	3.7429	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2092	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2470	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7930	0.7616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2623	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4220	0.3590	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5090	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3459	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6890	0.7660	0.7204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sandy León (506702) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 3

All-history rows before 20260519: 3

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.333	3.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.214	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.214	0.500
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.464	0.750
predicted_SO	0.357	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.718	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.583	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	0.438	0.081

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.046	0.001
predicted_H	0.601	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.067
predicted_R	0.085	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.074
predicted_SO	0.429	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.20	3	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429
season	0.60	3	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.2521
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3015
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3752
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1370	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5240	2.7179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2521	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2120	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.8880	0.5826	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0920	0.0589	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3015	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3750	0.0798	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.3570	0.2334	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3752	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3570	0.7350	0.4375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	506702
playerID	506702
playerName	Sandy León
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 6

All-history rows before 20260519: 6

System season_avg: 0.0530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0526

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.333	0.107	-0.083
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.258	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.274	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.021
predicted_H	0.463	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.230	-0.000
predicted_R	0.222	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.274	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.146	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.318	0.006
predicted_H	0.477	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.221	-0.008
predicted_R	0.235	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.208	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0625	0.1176	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	6	-	19.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0526	0.1429	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.60	6	-	19.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0526	0.1429	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5510
predicted_AVG	0.1687
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2297
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2580
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1000	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.5510	3.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1687	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2570	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5990	0.4625	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2297	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3630	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2610	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9130	0.8552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.053

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2179

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.809	4.000	-1.809	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.298	0.000	1.702	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.830	0.000	-0.830	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.000	0.216	0.500
predicted_R	0.511	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.511	0.000	0.489	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.596	0.000	-0.596	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	-0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.106	0.000	-0.106	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.809	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.298	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	1.106	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.807	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.036
predicted_H	0.816	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	-0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.807	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.267	0.005
predicted_H	0.842	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.161	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.012
predicted_R	0.531	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.577	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.809

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0263	0.2368
season	0.60	47	-	179.000	39.000	8.000	7.000	28.000	24.000	14.000	52.000	0.2179	0.2843	0.3799	0.2179	0.0391	0.1564	0.0782	0.2905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2280
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.2838
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.4055
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1820	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8090	3.8050	3.8074	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2980	0.2100	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8670	0.8158	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.4880	0.5015	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5810	0.5451	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4055	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1060	1.0180	1.0698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2772

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	-0.277	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.479	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.479	0.000	-0.479	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	1.000	-1.062	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.333	-0.154	-0.133
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.587	0.333	-0.587	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.062	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	0.000	-1.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.479	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.812	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.420	-0.059
predicted_H	0.837	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.000
predicted_R	0.633	-0.117
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	1.087	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.428	0.008
predicted_H	0.864	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.017
predicted_R	0.671	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.020
predicted_SO	1.067	-0.021

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.2632	0.1842	0.0263	0.1316	0.0263	0.3158
season	0.60	48	-	184.000	51.000	15.000	14.000	38.000	36.000	23.000	51.000	0.2772	0.3541	0.5870	0.2772	0.0761	0.2065	0.1250	0.2772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2277
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.2876
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.5930
predicted_SLG	0.4232
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.1850	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.7830	3.8123	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2277	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4790	0.3370	0.4203	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8610	0.8369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1840	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2876	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.4680	0.6335	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5930	0.5736	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4232	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	1.1230	1.0872	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	0.000	-1.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.000	-0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.795	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	2.000	1.205	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.783	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	0.008
predicted_H	0.868	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.442	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.827	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.783	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.165	0.003
predicted_H	0.896	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.007
predicted_R	0.468	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.811	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2632	0.2821	0.3684	0.2632	0.0263	0.0526	0.0263	0.2632
season	0.60	39	-	148.000	41.000	4.000	7.000	20.000	17.000	6.000	31.000	0.2770	0.3032	0.4459	0.2770	0.0473	0.1351	0.0405	0.2095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.2416
predicted_BB	0.1740
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.3967
predicted_SO	0.8740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0970	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.7640	3.7825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2416	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1740	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9090	0.8678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1610	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.4510	0.4420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4000	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3967	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.8740	0.8268	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2742

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.5370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.226	0.250
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	1.000	0.938	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_R	0.646	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.646	0.000	0.354	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.521	0.000	1.479	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	0.304	0.500
predicted_SO	0.542	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.542	1.000	-0.542	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.646	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.542	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.889	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.035
predicted_H	0.778	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.575	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.553	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.262	0.005
predicted_H	0.804	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.003
predicted_R	0.609	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.006
predicted_SO	0.542	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.800)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.60	48	-	186.000	51.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	31.000	14.000	26.000	0.2742	0.3268	0.4462	0.2742	0.0430	0.1344	0.0753	0.1398

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.2096
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2599
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3190
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1120	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.9090	3.8890	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2096	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.2080	0.2573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8190	0.7785	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1040	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2599	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6460	0.4750	0.5754	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3710	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3190	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5420	0.5680	0.5527	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Martín Pérez (527048) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	2.556	0.000	-0.556	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.922	1.000	1.178	4.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.111	2.000	0.889	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	15.200	4.000	10.000	5.000	18.000	3.000	2.2979	0.9574	0.2553	0.6383	0.3191	1.1489	0.1915
last_10	0.35	9	36.000	9.000	23.000	11.000	28.000	4.000	2.2500	0.9444	0.2500	0.6389	0.3056	0.7778	0.1111
season	0.20	9	36.000	9.000	23.000	11.000	28.000	4.000	2.2500	0.9444	0.2500	0.6389	0.3056	0.7778	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3750
predicted_ER	1.3480
predicted_ERA	2.9731
predicted_H	3.0430
predicted_HR	0.6110
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.0260
predicted_WHIP	1.0827

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3750	1.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.3480	2.6763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9731	2.9731	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	3.0430	4.5241	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6110	1.3067	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	4.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.0260	4.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0827	1.0827	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	527048
playerID	527048
playerName	Martín Pérez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	0.185	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.308	2.000	-1.308	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.2812	1.5000
season	0.20	13	13.200	7.000	3.000	17.000	0.7317	0.5122	0.2195	1.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	2.7378
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0790
predicted_WHIP	1.1361

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3040	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7378	2.7378	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7770	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0790	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1361	1.1361	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	4.947	5.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	0.684	0.000	4.316	5.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.968	1.100	0.032	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.8824	0.0000	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8438	0.0000	0.5625	0.2812	0.8438
season	0.20	19	19.100	1.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.4655	0.8793	0.0517	0.6724	0.2069	0.9828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.2700
predicted_ERA	2.4299
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9240
predicted_WHIP	1.1225

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3440	0.7305	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2700	1.8783	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4299	2.4299	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7790	1.4983	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0740	0.6195	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9240	0.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1225	1.1225	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	1
HR	2
BF	9
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: MIA

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.3350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3351

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	4.022	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.022	4.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.335	0.000	-0.335	0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	1.240	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.348	0.000	-1.348	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.000	-0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.587	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.587	0.000	-0.587	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.717	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.717	1.000	1.283	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	4.022	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	1.240	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.587	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.717	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.015
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.008
predicted_AB	4.007	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	-0.007
predicted_H	1.261	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.534	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	4.007	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.143	-0.002
predicted_H	1.195	-0.066
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.032
predicted_R	0.487	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.437	-0.042
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.682	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.022

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3636	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3250	0.3488	0.4250	0.3250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0250	0.1250
season	0.60	46	-	185.000	62.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	21.000	27.000	7.000	33.000	0.3351	0.3655	0.4865	0.3351	0.0216	0.1135	0.0378	0.1784

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.9850
predicted_AVG	0.3239
predicted_BB	0.1350
predicted_H	1.2910
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3543
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4575
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2980	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0220	3.9850	4.0068	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3239	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1350	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2400	1.2910	1.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3543	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5870	0.4580	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4920	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4575	0.4578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7170	0.6090	0.6726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.335

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Heriberto Hernández (681715) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1618

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	3.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.088	0.250
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.010	0.250
predicted_R	0.211	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.191	0.000	0.059	0.250
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.211	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.018
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.599	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	-0.026
predicted_H	0.619	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.228	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.005
predicted_H	0.587	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.009
predicted_R	0.208	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.394	-0.038
predicted_SLG	0.217	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.701	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1622	0.2051	0.1622	0.1622	0.1081	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.60	19	-	68.000	11.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	13.000	0.1618	0.2400	0.1912	0.1618	0.1323	0.1029	0.1912

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.1791
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2432
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.2351
predicted_SO	0.7040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0500	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0270	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.6340	3.5992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1791	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.2960	0.3416	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6510	0.6187	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2110	0.2560	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4530	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7040	0.6913	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681715
playerID	681715
playerName	Heriberto Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	2.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	0.183	0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.209	0.000	0.291	0.500
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.175	0.000	0.158	0.333
predicted_SO	1.083	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	0.000	-1.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.402	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.005
predicted_H	0.591	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.000
predicted_R	0.208	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.402	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.003
predicted_H	0.560	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.204	-0.029
predicted_R	0.190	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.210	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.067	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1765	0.1177	0.0588	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	0.1471	0.1714	0.1765	0.1471	0.0294	0.0294	0.3235
season	0.60	12	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.1500	0.2093	0.1750	0.1500	0.0250	0.0500	0.3250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5410
predicted_AVG	0.1846
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2335
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.2662
predicted_SO	0.9900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1380	0.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5410	3.4016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1846	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1830	0.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6540	0.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2335	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2910	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2500	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2662	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	0.9900	1.0523	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 25

All-history rows before 20260519: 25

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.680	2.000	-0.680	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.500	-0.217	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.520	2.000	0.480	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.750	-0.077	-0.500
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.520	2.000	0.480	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.500	-0.293	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	0.000	-1.080	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.520	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.656	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	0.004
predicted_H	0.742	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.523	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	1.097	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.007
predicted_H	0.704	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.060	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.033
predicted_R	0.477	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.225	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.113	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.4706
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	11.000	0.2059	0.3415	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.0882	0.1765	0.3235
season	0.60	25	-	92.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	13.000	27.000	0.2174	0.3271	0.2935	0.2174	0.0109	0.0435	0.1413	0.2935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6190
predicted_AVG	0.2151
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3255
predicted_R	0.5270
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.3024
predicted_SO	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1280	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.6190	3.6565	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2151	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5200	0.5310	0.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7780	0.7424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3255	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.5270	0.5227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2560	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3024	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.1240	1.0970	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Esteury Ruiz (665923) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 7

All-history rows before 20260519: 7

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.076	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.174	0.000	0.076	0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.478	0.000	-0.228	0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.379	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.043	0.043
predicted_H	0.617	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.149	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	1.124	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.043	-0.001
predicted_H	0.585	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.183	-0.048
predicted_R	0.399	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.351	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.049
predicted_SO	1.140	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	7	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1739	0.1739	0.4783	0.1739	0.0870	0.1304	0.3478
season	0.60	7	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1739	0.1739	0.4783	0.1739	0.0870	0.1304	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6130
predicted_AVG	0.1963
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.2308
predicted_R	0.4590
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.3929
predicted_SO	1.0750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1830	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6130	3.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1963	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7090	0.6167	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1710	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2308	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4590	0.4375	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4460	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3929	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0750	1.1237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260515_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	665923
playerID	665923
playerName	Esteury Ruiz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	3.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.333	-0.189	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.500	-0.231	-0.500
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	2.000	-0.455	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	4.000	-0.545	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.243	0.333	-0.243	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.364	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	1.000	0.636	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.435	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.015
predicted_H	0.618	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	1.322	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.042
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.003
predicted_H	0.586	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.215	-0.048
predicted_R	0.434	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.429	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.045
predicted_SO	1.341	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778	0.0556	0.5556
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	14.000	0.2059	0.2500	0.2647	0.2059	0.1765	0.0588	0.4118
season	0.60	11	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	15.000	0.1892	0.2308	0.2432	0.1892	0.1622	0.0541	0.4054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5850
predicted_AVG	0.2125
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.7620
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2630
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.3034
predicted_SO	1.2340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1640	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.5850	3.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2125	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2280	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7620	0.6184	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5190	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5760	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3034	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.2340	1.3220	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.769	4.000	0.231	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.417	0.417
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	1.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.401	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	0.000	2.923	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	2.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.250	2.389	2.417
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.152	0.152
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.249	-0.001
predicted_H	0.681	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.289	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.196	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.046
predicted_BB	0.245	-0.004
predicted_H	0.645	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.058	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.047
predicted_R	0.264	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.179	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.065
predicted_SO	0.720	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3500	0.3000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2258	0.3056	0.2581	0.2258	0.0323	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.60	12	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3171	0.2778	0.2500	0.0278	0.0833	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2506
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3088
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.3338
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1360	0.1003	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4660	3.1521	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2470	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8680	0.6807	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0470	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3088	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3710	0.2895	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2490	0.1958	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7980	0.7098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2319

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.366	3.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	1.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.768	0.667
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	2.000	-0.415	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.780	1.000	2.220	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	0.902	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	1.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.600	0.665	0.400
predicted_R	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	2.000	0.634	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	3.659	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	2.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.333	1.957	2.000
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	1.000	-1.146	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.366	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.460	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	-0.002
predicted_H	0.793	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.094	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.460	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.006
predicted_H	0.752	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.031
predicted_R	0.393	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.303	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.110	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.60	41	-	138.000	32.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	15.000	17.000	47.000	0.2319	0.3354	0.3768	0.2319	0.0290	0.1014	0.1232	0.3406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2424
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3310
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3957
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1960	0.1954	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3660	3.5980	3.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2424	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.4100	0.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8720	0.7933	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3310	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.5260	0.4306	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3650	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3957	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.0180	1.0943	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.064	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_AB	3.745	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.745	4.000	0.255	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.500	-0.318	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.532	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.532	0.000	-0.532	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.191	2.000	-1.191	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	1.000	-0.106	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.403	0.500	-0.403	-0.500
predicted_R	0.745	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.745	2.000	0.255	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.383	2.000	-0.383	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	1.250	-0.483	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.468	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.468	0.000	-0.468	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.064	-
predicted_AB	3.745	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.532	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.745	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	0.468	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.785	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.032
predicted_H	1.156	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.774	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.493	-0.007
predicted_H	1.096	-0.060
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.013
predicted_R	0.706	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.412	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.476	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.507	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6000	0.3000	0.0750	0.1500	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.60	47	-	176.000	56.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	18.000	35.000	25.000	22.000	0.3182	0.4030	0.4830	0.3182	0.0284	0.1023	0.1421	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0530
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.3110
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3845
predicted_R	0.8150
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.4950
predicted_SO	0.5460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1320	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0640	0.0530	0.0595	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7450	3.8410	3.7846	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5320	0.4550	0.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1940	1.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1570	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3845	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7450	0.8150	0.7738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4680	0.4515	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4950	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4680	0.5460	0.5001	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Braxton Garrett (666129) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	5.000	5.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	5.000	5.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.100	1.100	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.100	5.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	33.7500	6.7500	3.7500	3.0000	3.7500	2.2500
last_10	0.35	1	1.100	5.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	33.7500	6.7500	3.7500	3.0000	3.7500	2.2500
season	0.20	1	1.100	5.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	33.7500	6.7500	3.7500	3.0000	3.7500	2.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_ER	0.2430
predicted_ERA	5.7041
predicted_H	0.4000
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3900
predicted_WHIP	1.5901

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.2100	2.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.2430	3.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7041	5.7041	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	0.4000	5.3585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0117	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3900	1.5996	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5901	1.5901	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	14
Pitches	64

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	33.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	64
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	30
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666129
playerID	666129
playerName	Braxton Garrett
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.884	1.000	0.216	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0500	0.0000	0.7500	0.3000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	2.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	1.5882	1.2353	0.1765	0.7059	0.5294	0.7059
season	0.20	19	18.200	6.000	13.000	14.000	19.000	2.8929	1.4464	0.3214	0.6964	0.7500	1.0179

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	2.9084
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1070
predicted_WHIP	1.2649

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5240	0.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4060	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9084	2.9084	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0640	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1070	1.6363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2649	1.2649	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.89
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.429	2.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.829	2.000	-0.729	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.786	0.000	0.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	4.000	16.000	11.000	15.000	1.000	1.9636	1.4727	0.2182	0.8727	0.6000	0.8182	0.0546
season	0.20	14	27.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	25.000	1.000	1.3333	1.2963	0.1482	0.7407	0.5556	0.9259	0.0370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7060
predicted_ER	0.5120
predicted_ERA	2.7486
predicted_H	1.4780
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4220
predicted_WHIP	1.3015

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7060	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5120	0.2283	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7486	2.7486	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4780	1.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0575	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4220	1.7422	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3015	1.3015	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.33
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	43
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.726	1.000	0.374	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.739	1.000	-0.739	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	8.3077	1.1538	0.9231	0.9231	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.8077	0.4615	0.5769	0.2308	0.5769	0.1154
season	0.20	23	20.200	5.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	2.000	2.1774	0.6774	0.2419	0.3387	0.3387	0.8226	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.5390
predicted_ERA	4.8550
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7810
predicted_WHIP	1.1462

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3220	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5390	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8550	4.8550	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8250	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7810	0.3263	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1462	1.1462	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.0000	0.3000	0.0000	0.3000	0.0000	0.9000
season	0.20	19	17.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	19.000	3.5660	1.0755	0.3962	0.6226	0.4528	1.0755

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_ER	0.1880
predicted_ERA	2.7762
predicted_H	0.3930
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5720
predicted_WHIP	0.9065

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1580	0.0634	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1880	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7762	2.7762	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3930	0.1578	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5720	1.4266	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9065	0.9065	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.355	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.364	2.000	-0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	9.0000	1.7500	1.0000	0.7500	1.0000	1.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	10.0000	1.5556	1.1111	1.0000	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	11	10.000	10.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	9.0000	1.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_ER	0.3030
predicted_ERA	5.6777
predicted_H	0.4440
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.5490
predicted_WHIP	1.4067

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2310	0.0803	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3030	0.7578	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6777	5.6777	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4440	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5490	0.8433	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4067	1.4067	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Lake Bachar (669199) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 15

All-history rows before 20260519: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.553	1.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	-0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	3.0000	0.8333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	0.8333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	2.000	2.4000	0.8000	0.2667	0.4667	0.3333	0.7333	0.1333
season	0.20	15	24.000	7.000	12.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	2.6250	0.8750	0.2917	0.5000	0.3750	1.0417	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_ER	0.3310
predicted_ERA	3.4871
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7650
predicted_WHIP	1.0797

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3080	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3310	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4871	3.4871	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6140	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7650	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0797	1.0797	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_ATL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669199
playerID	669199
playerName	Lake Bachar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260519_BAL@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.594673, "home_win_probability": 0.594673, "away_win_probability": 0.405327, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "confidence": 0.594673, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 1 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 2 - 6 TB	TB	0.595	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 1 - 6 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	4-6	0.400	3.70	5.40	-17	1L	average	weak
Home TB	7-3	0.700	6.40	4.40	20	2W	hot	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	21-27	0.438	-54	-1.125	True
Home TB	31-15	0.674	35	0.761	True
Signal	-	-	1.886	2.240	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	BAL @ TB	6 - 16	TB	10	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	33	9	3	0	2	1	9
Player finalized TB	33	9	7	0	4	2	8
Player model fractional BAL	32.91	7.25	4.07	1.02	3.81	3.59	9.01
Player model fractional TB	32.07	8.31	5.06	0.90	4.81	3.53	6.85
Simulation box BAL	32	5	1	1	1	6	9
Simulation box TB	32	8	6	2	6	5	3

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Kyle Bradish	4.20	4	3	5	3	4.11	1.44	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1.20	0	0	1	0	3.62	1.16	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1.20	2	0	2	2	2.55	1.01	True
Home TB	Starter	Griffin Jax	4.10	0	4	1	3	3.37	1.29	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1	0	2	0	0	3.69	1.40	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Ian Seymour	1	0	0	2	1	4.05	1.19	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Kevin Kelly	1.20	0	2	1	0	2.47	0.94	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1	1	1	1	2	4.28	1.47	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Jackson Holliday (702616) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.584	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.878	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.742	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.584	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.878	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.409	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.002
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.015
predicted_H	0.886	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.002
predicted_R	0.473	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.004
predicted_SO	0.759	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.004
predicted_H	0.859	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.009
predicted_R	0.448	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.768	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3961
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.1820	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5840	3.8010	3.6182	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2443	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.2820	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8780	0.9290	0.8860	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1230	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3052	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4930	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4090	0.4750	0.4194	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3961	0.3724	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.8510	0.7592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 29

All-history rows before 20260519: 29

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.931	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.931	4.000	0.069	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.500	-0.263	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	2.000	-1.034	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.600	-0.315	-0.600
predicted_R	0.517	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.517	2.000	-0.517	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.828	2.000	-0.828	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	1.250	-0.518	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.724	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	1.000	1.276	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.931	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.924	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.003
predicted_H	0.897	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.245	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.532	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.756	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.924	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.003
predicted_H	0.870	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.237	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.016
predicted_R	0.503	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.715	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.468	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.778	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.931

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1818	0.4500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2955	0.5385	0.2308	0.0769	0.2051	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.60	29	-	114.000	30.000	8.000	7.000	24.000	15.000	8.000	21.000	0.2632	0.3145	0.5175	0.2632	0.0614	0.2105	0.0702	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9120
predicted_AVG	0.2361
predicted_BB	0.2690
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_OBP	0.2883
predicted_R	0.5550
predicted_RBI	0.7800
predicted_SLG	0.4864
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.2180	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9310	3.9120	3.9235	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2361	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2690	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9230	0.8969	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2520	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2883	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.5550	0.5319	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7800	0.7557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4864	0.4862	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.8380	0.7688	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.319	1.000	-0.319	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.574	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.574	4.000	0.426	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.012	0.000
predicted_BB	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.936	1.000	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.400	-0.019	0.000
predicted_R	0.638	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	1.000	-0.638	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.500	-0.119	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.915	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.915	3.000	-0.915	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.574	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.957	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.915	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.611	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.918	-0.039
predicted_H	0.872	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.009	0.094

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.907	-0.011
predicted_H	0.846	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.002
predicted_R	0.578	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.233	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.020	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3750	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.2000	0.4500
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	0.2000	0.3778	0.2571	0.2000	0.0000	0.0286	0.2857	0.4000
season	0.60	47	-	168.000	44.000	15.000	1.000	13.000	30.000	45.000	43.000	0.2619	0.4186	0.3690	0.2619	0.0060	0.0774	0.2679	0.2560

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2468
predicted_BB	0.8620
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3899
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.3406
predicted_SO	1.1410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3190	0.2630	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5740	3.6640	3.6113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2468	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9570	0.8620	0.9177	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9040	0.8724	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0225	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3899	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.5730	0.6111	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2560	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9150	1.1410	1.0086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	0.970	1.000
predicted_AB	3.758	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	4.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	-0.016	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.250	-0.076	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.250	0.274	0.500
predicted_SO	1.030	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.030	0.000	0.970	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	1.030	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.028
predicted_3B	0.032	0.002
predicted_AB	3.766	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.021
predicted_H	0.997	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.587	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.309	-0.004
predicted_H	0.967	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.021
predicted_R	0.556	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.051
predicted_SO	1.032	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5789	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.3421	0.3750	0.5789	0.3421	0.0263	0.1579	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.60	33	-	124.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	15.000	18.000	11.000	34.000	0.2661	0.3259	0.4758	0.2661	0.0484	0.1210	0.0887	0.2742

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2530
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.7790
predicted_AVG	0.2827
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.3341
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.4950
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2530	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0340	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	3.7790	3.7663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2827	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2810	0.3124	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0680	0.9968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1610	0.1483	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3341	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.6510	0.5871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4730	0.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4950	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0300	1.0040	1.0197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1870

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.324	1.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.324	5.000	-2.324	-4.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.200	-0.187	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.297	3.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	2.703	3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.622	1.000	-0.622	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.200	0.491	0.550
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.200	-0.341	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.108	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.108	1.000	-1.108	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.324	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.108	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.381	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.006
predicted_H	0.714	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.086	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.004
predicted_H	0.693	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.037
predicted_R	0.327	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.099	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-2.000
BB	3.000	3.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2812	0.3611	0.5000	0.2812	0.0625	0.1875	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.60	37	-	123.000	23.000	4.000	5.000	17.000	12.000	11.000	41.000	0.1870	0.2593	0.3415	0.1870	0.0406	0.1382	0.0894	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4690
predicted_AVG	0.2339
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3042
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4076
predicted_SO	1.0530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1330	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3240	3.4690	3.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2339	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2820	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8110	0.7139	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1550	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3042	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3790	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5100	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4076	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1080	1.0530	1.0862	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	1
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	3
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2100

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	4.255	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.255	4.000	0.745	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	-0.010	0.200
predicted_BB	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.298	0.000	-0.298	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.894	0.000	0.106	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.000	-0.064	0.200
predicted_R	0.511	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.000	-0.215	0.200
predicted_SO	1.298	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.298	2.000	0.702	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	4.255	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.298	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.511	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.427	-
predicted_SO	1.298	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.023
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.217	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.015
predicted_H	0.953	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.495	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.000
predicted_SO	1.194	-0.104

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.217	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.003
predicted_H	0.925	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.169	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.013
predicted_R	0.433	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.469	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.208	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.255

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.5238	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2439	0.2791	0.3902	0.2439	0.0244	0.0976	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.60	47	-	200.000	42.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	24.000	14.000	61.000	0.2100	0.2639	0.4150	0.2100	0.0500	0.1200	0.0700	0.3050

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1630
predicted_AVG	0.2334
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2811
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4274
predicted_SO	1.0470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.2460	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2550	4.1630	4.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2334	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2980	0.2620	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9720	0.9533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1790	0.1737	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2811	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5110	0.3820	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5020	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4270	0.4274	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2980	1.0470	1.1940	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2673

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	3.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.333	-0.267	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.533	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.500	-0.123	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.667	-0.406	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.767	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	0.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.005
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.424	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.468	-0.065
predicted_H	0.811	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.463	-0.006
predicted_H	0.787	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.010
predicted_R	0.479	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.351	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.812	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.3143	0.2286	0.0000	0.0286	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.60	30	-	101.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	15.000	16.000	23.000	0.2673	0.3729	0.4059	0.2673	0.0198	0.1782	0.1584	0.2277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.2493
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3313
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3689
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2130	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0190	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.5130	3.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2493	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.3670	0.4681	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8760	0.8114	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0523	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3313	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5150	0.5059	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4040	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3689	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.8580	0.8026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Colton Cowser (681297) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	1.000	-0.042	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.250	-0.006	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.292	1.000	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	2.000	-0.292	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.236	1.000	-0.236	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.292	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.134	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.020
predicted_H	0.444	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.301	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.204	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.134	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.137	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.351	-0.004
predicted_H	0.430	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.013
predicted_R	0.285	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.300	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.044
predicted_SO	1.219	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	17.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.2353	0.1177	0.0294	0.1177	0.0882	0.5000
season	0.60	24	-	72.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	28.000	0.1667	0.2561	0.2361	0.1667	0.0139	0.0972	0.1250	0.3889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3610
predicted_AVG	0.1640
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.5510
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2374
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.2768
predicted_SO	1.2680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0990	0.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3610	3.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1640	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3220	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.5510	0.4436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0910	0.0715	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2374	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2920	0.3170	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3960	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.2680	1.2045	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681297
playerID	681297
playerName	Colton Cowser
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2253

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.792	5.000	0.208	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.600	0.025	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	3.000	0.146	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.600	-0.057	-0.350
predicted_R	0.562	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	2.000	-0.542	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.800	-0.173	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.062	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	2.000	-0.062	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.792	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.837	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.069
predicted_H	0.902	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.488	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	1.063	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.365	-0.004
predicted_H	0.875	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.002
predicted_R	0.462	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.506	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.076	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.4286	0.3333	0.0000	0.1905	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	11.000	0.2250	0.2250	0.3500	0.2250	0.0250	0.1250	0.0000	0.2750
season	0.60	48	-	182.000	41.000	12.000	8.000	26.000	27.000	21.000	51.000	0.2253	0.3073	0.4231	0.2253	0.0440	0.1429	0.1154	0.2802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9010
predicted_AVG	0.2465
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.2972
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.4079
predicted_SO	1.0650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2570	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7920	3.9010	3.8370	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2465	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.2720	0.3695	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9610	0.9017	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1230	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.3840	0.4885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5690	0.5343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4079	0.4080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	1.0650	1.0632	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Kyle Bradish (680694) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.778	3.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	0.000	1.556	4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.222	1.000	-0.222	4.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.144	6.000	-0.944	-1.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.778	7.000	-2.778	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	12.000	26.000	15.000	31.000	4.000	3.9512	1.5000	0.4390	0.9512	0.5488	1.1341	0.1463
last_10	0.35	9	47.000	22.000	47.000	25.000	52.000	5.000	4.2128	1.5319	0.4681	1.0000	0.5319	1.1064	0.1064
season	0.20	9	47.000	22.000	47.000	25.000	52.000	5.000	4.2128	1.5319	0.4681	1.0000	0.5319	1.1064	0.1064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5800
predicted_ER	2.4370
predicted_ERA	4.1123
predicted_H	5.1140
predicted_HR	0.6970
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.6640
predicted_WHIP	1.4426

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.5800	2.7904	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.4370	3.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1123	4.1123	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.1140	5.0569	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6970	0.8488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.6640	4.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4426	1.4426	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	3
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680694
playerID	680694
playerName	Kyle Bradish
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.985	1.100	0.215	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	3.000	-1.250	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.0000	0.8333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	1.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	3.0000	1.1667	0.3333	0.8333	0.3333	1.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	19	21.100	6.000	15.000	5.000	25.000	4.000	2.5312	0.9375	0.2812	0.7031	0.2344	1.1719	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_ER	0.4510
predicted_ERA	3.6189
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1640
predicted_WHIP	1.1585

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3910	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4510	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6189	3.6189	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9090	0.9617	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2060	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1640	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1585	1.1585	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.048	0.000	1.952	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.095	1.000	1.905	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.886	1.000	0.314	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1875	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3333	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	21	20.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	0.4500	0.4500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3500	1.2000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.5491
predicted_H	0.6040
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1590
predicted_WHIP	1.0098

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4060	1.3395	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2830	1.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5491	2.5491	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6040	1.4215	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0940	0.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1590	0.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0098	1.0098	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	1
BF	9
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: TB

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	1.000	-0.048	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	4.048	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.048	4.000	-1.048	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.250	0.384	0.417
predicted_BB	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.400	0.481	0.400
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.500	0.337	0.167
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	4.048	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.022
predicted_3B	0.079	0.008
predicted_AB	4.027	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.032
predicted_H	1.017	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.444	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.079	0.000
predicted_AB	4.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.004
predicted_BB	0.274	0.003
predicted_H	1.052	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.003
predicted_R	0.536	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.438	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.048

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.3250	0.2500	0.0500	0.0750	0.0750
season	0.60	42	-	170.000	48.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	21.000	10.000	18.000	0.2824	0.3187	0.3294	0.2823	0.0471	0.0588	0.1059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0900
predicted_AB	3.9960
predicted_AVG	0.2573
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	1.0280
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.3115
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.2360
predicted_SLG	0.3416
predicted_SO	0.4650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.1030	0.0705	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0900	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0480	3.9960	4.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2573	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.3170	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0280	1.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3115	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5160	0.5065	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2360	0.2325	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.4650	0.4437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2629

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	4.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.500	-0.263	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.556	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	2.000	1.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	2.000	-1.022	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.667	0.047	-0.267
predicted_R	0.689	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.689	3.000	0.311	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	4.000	-0.600	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	1.250	-0.509	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.689	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.542	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.893	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.562	0.006
predicted_H	1.041	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.296	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.722	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.819	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.893	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.002
predicted_BB	0.569	0.007
predicted_H	1.076	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.306	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.003
predicted_R	0.765	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.867	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.539	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.688	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.6842	0.3158	0.1053	0.4210	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	0.2927	0.3830	0.6098	0.2927	0.0976	0.2683	0.1463	0.1220
season	0.60	45	-	175.000	46.000	4.000	13.000	27.000	31.000	25.000	32.000	0.2629	0.3532	0.5086	0.2629	0.0743	0.1543	0.1429	0.1829

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8990
predicted_AVG	0.2749
predicted_BB	0.5700
predicted_H	1.0720
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.3664
predicted_R	0.7700
predicted_RBI	0.8450
predicted_SLG	0.5422
predicted_SO	0.6750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0890	0.1230	0.1030	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.8990	3.8931	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2749	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5700	0.5618	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0720	1.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3050	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3664	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6890	0.7700	0.7224	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8450	0.8185	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5420	0.5422	0.5421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.6750	0.6962	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	2.000	-0.136	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	5.000	0.114	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.800	0.440	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	4.000	1.795	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.800	0.363	-0.050
predicted_R	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	4.000	0.409	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.705	4.000	-0.705	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.480	1.200	0.270	-0.450
predicted_SO	0.523	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.523	1.000	-0.523	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	0.523	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.032
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.926	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.007
predicted_H	1.191	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.189	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.000
predicted_R	0.628	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.804	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000
predicted_SO	0.532	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.926	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.362	0.004
predicted_H	1.231	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.195	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.012
predicted_R	0.665	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.852	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.515	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.526	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.421)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.4286	0.4783	0.8095	0.4286	0.0952	0.3810	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3404	0.5000	0.2857	0.0476	0.2143	0.0714	0.1667
season	0.60	44	-	171.000	53.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	31.000	26.000	16.000	23.000	0.3099	0.3866	0.4795	0.3099	0.0409	0.1813	0.0936	0.1345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.9840
predicted_AVG	0.3175
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	1.2650
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.3836
predicted_R	0.6800
predicted_RBI	0.8530
predicted_SLG	0.5290
predicted_SO	0.5460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.2130	0.1676	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.9840	3.9263	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3175	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3480	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2650	1.1914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2010	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3836	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.6800	0.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.8530	0.8041	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5290	0.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5230	0.5460	0.5324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	4
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2747

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.792	5.000	0.208	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.400	-0.025	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.042	2.000	-0.042	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	0.958	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.400	-0.062	-0.150
predicted_R	0.542	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	3.000	3.542	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.600	0.604	0.400
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.792	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.542	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.358	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.852	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.007
predicted_H	1.021	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.000
predicted_R	0.518	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.475	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.358	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.852	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.217	0.003
predicted_H	1.055	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.008
predicted_R	0.549	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.778	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.5000	0.3182	0.0000	0.1818	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.3095	0.3409	0.4524	0.3095	0.0000	0.1191	0.0476	0.2381
season	0.60	24	-	91.000	25.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	5.000	18.000	0.2747	0.3125	0.3956	0.2747	0.0110	0.1209	0.0549	0.1978

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9490
predicted_AVG	0.2794
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	1.1030
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3205
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.4203
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3990	0.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7920	3.9490	3.8517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2794	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.2250	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1030	1.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0438	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3205	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5420	0.4790	0.5180	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5170	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4203	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8480	0.7873	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.870	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.870	3.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	1.000	0.522	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	-0.112	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.217	1.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.826	1.000	0.174	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.870	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.826	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.053	0.183
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.031
predicted_H	0.758	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.344	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.053	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.453	0.005
predicted_H	0.784	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.004
predicted_R	0.364	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.866	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.4500	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	0.2353	0.3077	0.2647	0.2353	0.0000	0.1471	0.1177	0.3824
season	0.60	23	-	66.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	19.000	0.2424	0.3625	0.3182	0.2424	0.0152	0.1212	0.1667	0.2879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3650
predicted_AVG	0.2648
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3485
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3508
predicted_SO	0.9620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.1270	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8700	3.3650	3.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.3950	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8910	0.7581	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3485	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.3360	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4620	0.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3508	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8260	0.9620	0.8764	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.118	4.000	0.882	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.500	-0.226	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	2.000	-0.706	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.600	-0.328	-0.600
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	3.000	-0.529	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.853	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.118	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.853	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.034
predicted_3B	0.073	0.014
predicted_AB	3.212	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	-0.008
predicted_H	0.706	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.073	0.000
predicted_AB	3.212	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.438	0.005
predicted_H	0.730	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.022
predicted_R	0.600	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.529	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.6111	0.3333	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.2727	0.3684	0.4848	0.2727	0.2424	0.1515	0.2424
season	0.60	34	-	106.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	18.000	15.000	29.000	0.2264	0.3279	0.3208	0.2264	0.1321	0.1415	0.2736

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0960
predicted_AB	3.3590
predicted_AVG	0.2545
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3415
predicted_R	0.6250
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.4086
predicted_SO	0.8420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2620	0.2097	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0960	0.0735	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1180	3.3590	3.2125	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2545	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.4200	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8550	0.7061	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0204	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3415	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.6250	0.5667	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.6070	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4086	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8530	0.8420	0.8487	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1729

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	3.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.333	0.077	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.639	1.000	0.361	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.500	0.010	-0.250
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	2.000	0.583	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.333	-0.021	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.001
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.689	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	0.029
predicted_H	0.862	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.091
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.283	0.003
predicted_H	0.891	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.108	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.024
predicted_R	0.538	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.741	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	0.4444	0.5455	0.6111	0.4444	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3611	0.2778	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.60	36	-	133.000	23.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	9.000	27.000	0.1729	0.2397	0.2707	0.1729	0.0226	0.1053	0.0677	0.2030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.2475
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.3635
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0580	0.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.6810	3.6888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2475	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3230	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9110	0.8624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1120	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.6440	0.5078	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4580	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3635	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.389	2.000	1.611	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	0.930	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	1.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.349	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.930	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.663	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.018
predicted_H	0.583	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.927	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.663	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.335	0.004
predicted_H	0.603	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.026	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.009
predicted_R	0.443	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2143	0.2500	0.2857	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	25.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2800	0.3448	0.3600	0.2800	0.1200	0.0800	0.3200
season	0.60	18	-	43.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	0.2558	0.3529	0.3023	0.2558	0.0930	0.1395	0.3721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.9780
predicted_AVG	0.2493
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3213
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.3140
predicted_SLG	0.3422
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.1620	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.9780	2.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2493	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3490	0.2950	0.3306	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7430	0.5830	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0360	0.0255	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3213	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.4400	0.4183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3140	0.2455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9300	0.9200	0.9266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2671

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	6.000	-0.744	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.167	0.066	0.167
predicted_BB	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	0.000	0.814	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.167	0.134	0.333
predicted_R	0.558	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.558	1.000	0.442	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.814	1.000	1.186	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.167	0.880	1.167
predicted_SO	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.070	1.000	-1.070	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.558	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.070	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.755	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.596	0.015
predicted_H	0.855	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.568	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.638	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	-0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.755	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.603	0.007
predicted_H	0.883	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.006
predicted_R	0.602	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.675	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.004
predicted_SO	1.057	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.1500	0.2917	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	11.000	0.2222	0.3750	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1667	0.2222	0.3056
season	0.60	43	-	161.000	43.000	6.000	8.000	35.000	24.000	25.000	46.000	0.2671	0.3660	0.4534	0.2671	0.0497	0.2174	0.1553	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7710
predicted_AVG	0.2360
predicted_BB	0.6180
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3466
predicted_R	0.5830
predicted_RBI	0.6630
predicted_SLG	0.3810
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1480	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.7710	3.7551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.6180	0.5962	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8900	0.8547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1320	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3466	0.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5580	0.5830	0.5683	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6630	0.6377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3810	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0700	1.0690	1.0696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_BAL@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Griffin Jax (643377) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 15

All-history rows before 20260519: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.933	4.000	2.067	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.333	4.000	-0.333	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.347	5.000	2.753	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	2.800	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	15.100	4.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	2.3478	1.2391	0.2609	0.7174	0.5217	0.7174	0.0652
last_10	0.35	10	19.000	5.000	13.000	11.000	17.000	2.000	2.3684	1.2632	0.2632	0.6842	0.5789	0.8947	0.1053
season	0.20	14	23.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	18.000	3.000	2.7391	1.3043	0.3044	0.7391	0.5652	0.7826	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5670
predicted_ER	1.2740
predicted_ERA	3.3686
predicted_H	2.8240
predicted_HR	0.3820
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	2.9790
predicted_WHIP	1.2903

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5670	2.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.2740	0.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3686	3.3686	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	2.8240	1.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3820	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.9790	3.5620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2903	1.2903	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	66
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	38
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643377
playerID	643377
playerName	Griffin Jax
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.876	1.000	0.124	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	0.000	0.905	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.000	3.8571	1.9286	0.4286	0.8571	1.0714	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.6667	0.5556	1.3333	0.0000
season	0.20	21	19.100	6.000	13.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.7931	1.0862	0.3103	0.6724	0.4138	1.1897	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5440
predicted_ER	0.4100
predicted_ERA	3.6890
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1370
predicted_WHIP	1.4022

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5440	0.2235	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4100	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6890	3.6890	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8590	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1370	1.6454	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4022	1.4022	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.050	0.000	0.950	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.925	0.200	0.075	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.300	1.000	-1.300	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	2.000	2.6129	1.1613	0.2903	0.6774	0.4839	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	19	22.000	8.000	16.000	8.000	26.000	3.000	3.2727	1.0909	0.3636	0.7273	0.3636	1.1818	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	4.0472
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0830
predicted_WHIP	1.1912

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3540	0.7259	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4500	0.1910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0472	4.0472	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8370	1.5065	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1920	0.6571	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0830	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1912	1.1912	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.886	1.200	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	1.000	1.190	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3529	0.0000	0.3529	0.0000	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000
season	0.20	21	22.100	6.000	12.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	2.4179	0.7164	0.2687	0.5373	0.1791	0.7612	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_ER	0.2740
predicted_ERA	2.4659
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8240
predicted_WHIP	0.9391

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2740	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4659	2.4659	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7220	0.8816	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8240	1.4991	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9391	0.9391	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	0.100	0.327	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	-0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	1.1250	0.7500	1.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	11	8.100	5.000	11.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0400	0.6000	1.3200	0.7200	1.5600	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_ER	0.3170
predicted_ERA	4.2835
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7650
predicted_WHIP	1.4679

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2980	1.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3170	0.7729	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2835	4.2835	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6810	0.8939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7650	0.9219	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4679	1.4679	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260519_BOS@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.562731, "home_win_probability": 0.437269, "away_win_probability": 0.562731, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 2 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 3 - 2 KC", "confidence": 0.562731, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BOS 3 - 2 KC", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 1 KC", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 3 - 2 KC	BOS	0.563	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 2 - 1 KC	BOS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	4-6	0.400	2.10	3.20	-11	1W	cold	strong
Home KC	3-7	0.300	3.30	4	-7	1L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	20-27	0.426	-18	-0.383	True
Home KC	20-28	0.417	-23	-0.479	True
Signal	-	-	-0.096	-0.110	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	BOS @ KC	3 - 1	BOS	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target KC	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	33	9	0	0	1	1	9
Player finalized KC	32	9	1	0	0	0	8
Player model fractional BOS	31.97	6.95	3.22	0.74	3.02	2.82	7.44
Player model fractional KC	32.21	7.01	3.45	0.75	3.11	3.50	7.60
Simulation box BOS	35	8	2	0	2	6	7
Simulation box KC	30	4	1	0	1	3	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Ranger Suarez	5.20	1	4	3	3	2.60	0.99	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.58	1.10	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	0	0	0	0	3.89	1.15	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	1	0	0	1	0	3.30	1.19	True
Home KC	Starter	Bailey Falter	3	2	3	6	4	5.25	1.55	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Alex Lange	1	0	1	0	0	3.96	1.31	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	1	0	1	0	2	3.24	1.23	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	John Schreiber	1	0	1	0	0	3.38	1.33	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1	0	1	2	0	3.16	1.37	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	2	0	0	0	0	3.90	1.44	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1829

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.100	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.100	2.000	-0.100	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	2.000	0.675	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.400	-0.050	-0.200
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	1.000	-0.475	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	-0.305	0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	1.000	-1.150	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.055	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	0.016
predicted_H	0.722	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.083	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.055	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.002
predicted_H	0.712	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.021
predicted_R	0.406	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.139	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.1579	0.2917	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	0.1500	0.2222	0.2250	0.1500	0.0000	0.0250	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.60	40	-	164.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	19.000	19.000	13.000	46.000	0.1829	0.2500	0.3049	0.1829	0.0244	0.1158	0.0793	0.2805

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9890
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0830
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.2971
predicted_SO	1.1070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2510	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1000	3.9890	4.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.3640	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7250	0.7220	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0830	0.0830	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0692	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.3280	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3620	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2971	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.1070	1.1324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.591	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.591	4.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.044	0.150
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.614	2.000	1.386	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.508	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	1.000	0.019	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.159	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.159	0.000	-1.159	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.591	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.508	-
predicted_SO	1.159	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.618	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	-0.044
predicted_H	0.837	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.586	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.508	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.093	-0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.408	-0.003
predicted_H	0.826	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.235	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.012
predicted_R	0.458	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.574	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.100	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.6842	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2683	0.5000	0.1944	0.0833	0.1667	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.60	44	-	158.000	40.000	6.000	10.000	27.000	21.000	20.000	51.000	0.2532	0.3564	0.4810	0.2532	0.0633	0.1709	0.1266	0.3228

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.2436
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.3181
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.6240
predicted_SLG	0.5076
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1970	0.1610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5910	3.6570	3.6180	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2436	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3470	0.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8910	0.8373	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2550	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3181	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.4530	0.4672	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6240	0.5862	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5080	0.5076	0.5078	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1590	0.9980	1.0930	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.500	-0.242	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.294	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	1.706	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	2.000	-0.941	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	0.104	-0.100
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.500	-0.379	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	2.000	-0.765	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.875	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.026
predicted_H	0.912	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.002
predicted_H	0.899	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.012
predicted_R	0.442	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.316	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.783	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.2368	0.2564	0.3158	0.2368	0.0000	0.0526	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.60	17	-	66.000	16.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2424	0.2958	0.3788	0.2424	0.0152	0.1061	0.0758	0.1970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3270
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2503
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2937
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3851
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3530	0.3270	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	3.8630	3.8751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2503	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.2230	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9670	0.9116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2937	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4160	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3450	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3851	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8010	0.7781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.333	0.122	0.067
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.500	0.050	-0.100
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.333	-0.010	0.067
predicted_SO	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.023
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.599	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.023
predicted_H	0.998	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.133	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.890	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.002
predicted_H	0.984	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.133	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.038
predicted_R	0.369	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.392	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.896	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.3333	0.4146	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1944	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.60	40	-	144.000	40.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	10.000	36.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4097	0.2778	0.0208	0.1042	0.0694	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2846
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.1330
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3622
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.4325
predicted_SO	0.8760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.2080	0.1734	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0270	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5980	3.5992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2846	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3070	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0240	0.9978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1330	0.1330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3622	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3430	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4140	0.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4325	0.4322	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8760	0.8903	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2914

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.804	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.804	5.000	1.196	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.109	0.400
predicted_BB	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.109	0.000	0.891	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.038	0.400
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.413	0.000	-0.413	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.000	-0.046	0.400
predicted_SO	0.804	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.804	2.000	0.196	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.804	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.435	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.804	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.001
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.832	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.054
predicted_H	0.972	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.431	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.832	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.002
predicted_H	0.959	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.005
predicted_R	0.422	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.344	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.797	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.3684	0.2632	0.0263	0.0790	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.60	46	-	175.000	51.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	21.000	20.000	37.000	0.2914	0.3622	0.4457	0.2914	0.0343	0.1086	0.1143	0.2114

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.2628
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3128
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3897
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1550	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8040	3.8720	3.8320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2628	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4350	0.3040	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0170	0.9717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3128	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3930	0.4307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3680	0.3515	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3897	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8040	0.7750	0.7921	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.366	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.366	3.000	0.634	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.246	0.000	-0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.585	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.585	0.000	0.415	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.366	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	0.585	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.305	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.040
predicted_H	0.471	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.073

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.305	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.226	-0.001
predicted_H	0.465	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.196	-0.041
predicted_R	0.298	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.235	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.662	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.1667	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2188	0.2333	0.1667	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.2667
season	0.60	41	-	138.000	23.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	24.000	0.1667	0.2484	0.2464	0.1667	0.0073	0.0942	0.0797	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2150
predicted_AVG	0.1655
predicted_BB	0.1680
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2369
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.2554
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1990	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3660	3.2150	3.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1655	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.1680	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5320	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0236	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2369	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.2500	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2710	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5850	0.7660	0.6578	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (643396) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.846	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.846	1.000	1.154	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.990	0.144
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	0.005
predicted_H	0.592	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.401	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.580	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.990	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.002
predicted_H	0.584	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.023
predicted_R	0.393	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.251	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.238	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.584	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2333	0.2812	0.2333	0.2333	0.0667	0.0667	0.1667
season	0.60	13	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.1892	0.1892	0.0541	0.0811	0.1892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2910
predicted_AVG	0.2191
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	0.7210
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2772
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.2841
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0680	0.0221	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8460	3.2910	2.9905	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2191	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2460	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7210	0.5920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4350	0.4012	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3120	0.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2841	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.6670	0.5799	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	643396
playerID	643396
playerName	Isiah Kiner-Falefa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 28

All-history rows before 20260519: 28

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	2.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.500	0.106	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.500	0.208	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.500	-0.019	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.929	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.145	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	0.018
predicted_H	0.699	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.362	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.135	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.911	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.145	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.231	-0.001
predicted_H	0.690	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.045
predicted_R	0.354	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.132	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.917	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3077	0.4000	0.4615	0.3077	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.1852	0.3333	0.2963	0.1852	0.0000	0.0000	0.1482	0.2963
season	0.60	28	-	88.000	20.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	26.000	0.2273	0.2917	0.3523	0.2273	0.0227	0.0341	0.0682	0.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1490
predicted_AVG	0.2372
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3178
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.1430
predicted_SLG	0.3708
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2450	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.1490	3.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2372	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2620	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7470	0.6993	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3178	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3690	0.3616	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3708	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.8830	0.9115	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Nick Sogard (686765) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.333	0.381	0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.375	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.667	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.333	0.238	0.333
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.446	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.552	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.463	-0.037
predicted_H	0.840	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.560	0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.446	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.552	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.003
predicted_H	0.828	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.001
predicted_R	0.082	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.026
predicted_SO	0.563	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429
season	0.60	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.7380
predicted_AVG	0.2530
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.4029
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2540	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7380	3.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2530	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3310	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9460	0.8398	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0950	0.0833	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3820	0.0837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4810	0.4256	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4029	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7730	0.5598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686765
playerID	686765
playerName	Nick Sogard
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ranger Suarez (624133) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.375	1.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.875	4.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.425	5.100	-0.225	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	8.000	-1.000	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	4.000	15.000	6.000	29.000	1.000	1.2000	0.7000	0.1333	0.5000	0.2000	0.9667	0.0333
last_10	0.35	8	44.100	12.000	31.000	11.000	40.000	3.000	2.4361	0.9474	0.2707	0.6993	0.2481	0.9023	0.0677
season	0.20	8	44.100	12.000	31.000	11.000	40.000	3.000	2.4361	0.9474	0.2707	0.6993	0.2481	0.9023	0.0677

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6140
predicted_ER	1.6800
predicted_ERA	2.6042
predicted_H	4.1100
predicted_HR	0.4490
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.5050
predicted_WHIP	0.9859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6140	2.3243	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.6800	1.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6042	2.6042	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.1100	3.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4490	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	5.5050	3.7087	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9859	0.9859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	624133
playerID	624133
playerName	Ranger Suarez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.147	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	1.000	-1.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.0000	0.8000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.0000	0.7241	0.0000	0.3103	0.4138	1.5517
season	0.20	17	16.200	1.000	7.000	7.000	22.000	0.5400	0.8400	0.0600	0.4200	0.4200	1.3200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	2.5849
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1800
predicted_WHIP	1.1041

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4620	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.1135	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5849	2.5849	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6420	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1800	1.6756	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1041	1.1041	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.278	1.000	-1.278	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	9.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	0.9677	0.3871	0.8710	0.0968	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	18	18.100	6.000	14.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	2.9455	1.0909	0.3273	0.7636	0.3273	1.2546	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_ER	0.4320
predicted_ERA	3.8878
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.1488

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2990	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4320	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8878	3.8878	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8500	0.3446	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1160	0.4524	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1488	1.1488	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000	1.0714
last_10	0.35	8	7.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.8571	0.5714	0.2857	1.2857
season	0.20	8	7.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.8571	0.5714	0.2857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_ER	0.3670
predicted_ERA	3.3044
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9920
predicted_WHIP	1.1856

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3160	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3670	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3044	3.3044	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8700	0.9585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9920	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1856	1.1856	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: KC

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	2.000	-0.385	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.487	1.000	-0.487	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.333	-0.325	-0.333
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	1.154	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.487	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.381	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	0.005
predicted_H	0.662	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	1.138	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.488	-0.004
predicted_H	0.645	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.034
predicted_R	0.436	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.319	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.296	-0.062
predicted_SO	1.147	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.1935	0.3158	0.2581	0.1935	0.0000	0.0645	0.1935	0.4194
season	0.60	39	-	132.000	30.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	18.000	19.000	45.000	0.2273	0.3247	0.3939	0.2273	0.0454	0.1439	0.1439	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3740
predicted_AVG	0.2282
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3274
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.3579
predicted_SO	1.1140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1490	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.3740	3.3806	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2282	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4870	0.5000	0.4922	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7700	0.6624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0950	0.0801	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3274	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4460	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3840	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.1140	1.1379	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2637

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	0.000	0.711	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.044	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.044	4.000	-1.044	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.070	0.083
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.250	0.271	0.417
predicted_SO	0.644	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.644	1.000	-0.644	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.044	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.644	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.097	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.031
predicted_H	0.965	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.605	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.097	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.003
predicted_H	0.940	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.001
predicted_R	0.554	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.610	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.044

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2083	0.1667	0.0000	0.0417	0.0000	0.0417
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3095	0.2381	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.0714
season	0.60	45	-	182.000	48.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	25.000	18.000	29.000	0.2637	0.3267	0.3956	0.2637	0.0165	0.0989	0.0989	0.1593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2640
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.1720
predicted_AVG	0.2398
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2922
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3481
predicted_SO	0.5500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.2640	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0440	4.1720	4.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2398	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3250	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0010	0.9651	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2922	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.6110	0.5787	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3820	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3481	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6440	0.5500	0.6053	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2011

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.891	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.891	3.000	0.109	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	-0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.250	-0.244	-0.250
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	1.000	-0.913	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.891	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.859	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.166	0.014
predicted_H	0.811	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.374	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.859	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.165	-0.001
predicted_H	0.790	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.158	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.029
predicted_R	0.358	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.382	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.907	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.891

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3333	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2381	0.3421	0.1842	0.0526	0.0790	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.60	46	-	179.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	17.000	7.000	42.000	0.2011	0.2435	0.3464	0.2011	0.0391	0.1117	0.0391	0.2346

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8130
predicted_AVG	0.2173
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2664
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.3693
predicted_SO	0.8820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.0800	0.0971	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8910	3.8130	3.8590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2173	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1870	0.1664	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8280	0.8115	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2664	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3800	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4110	0.3986	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3693	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	0.8820	0.9003	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	3.000	-1.077	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	-0.306	-0.250
predicted_R	0.538	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_SO	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.151	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.019
predicted_H	0.533	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.161	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.151	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.004
predicted_H	0.519	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.035
predicted_R	0.480	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.459	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.243	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.444	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.0769	0.2778	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.1613	0.3077	0.1935	0.1613	0.2258	0.1613	0.1290
season	0.60	13	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	0.1750	0.3061	0.2250	0.1750	0.1750	0.1500	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.1874
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.6180
predicted_HBP	0.1610
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3025
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.2677
predicted_SO	0.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1340	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.2960	3.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1874	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.4060	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6180	0.5334	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1610	0.1610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3025	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.4290	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5580	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2677	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.5490	0.4406	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	2.000	-0.243	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.541	4.000	0.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	-0.002	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	2.000	0.108	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	-0.074	-0.250
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.216	1.000	-0.216	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	1.000	-0.177	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.081	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	0.000	-1.081	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.541	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.030
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.573	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	-0.019
predicted_H	0.897	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	1.003	-0.078

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.573	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.002
predicted_H	0.873	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.125	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.022
predicted_R	0.440	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.271	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.042
predicted_SO	1.010	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.5405	0.2703	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.60	37	-	131.000	33.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	17.000	12.000	40.000	0.2519	0.3241	0.4275	0.2519	0.0305	0.0611	0.0916	0.3053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3180
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.2671
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3255
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.4805
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.3180	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5410	3.6220	3.5734	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2671	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2770	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9670	0.8968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3255	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4620	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3030	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4805	0.4802	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	0.8850	1.0026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1831

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.087	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.087	3.000	0.913	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.609	1.000	-0.609	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.322	-0.250
predicted_R	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.826	2.000	-0.826	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.087	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.609	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.174	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.260	-
predicted_SO	0.826	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.118	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.585	-0.024
predicted_H	0.553	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.210	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.015	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.580	-0.005
predicted_H	0.538	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.007
predicted_R	0.201	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.270	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.856	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.0769	0.2353	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	0.2069	0.3514	0.3103	0.2069	0.0345	0.1379	0.2069	0.3103
season	0.60	23	-	71.000	13.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	14.000	19.000	0.1831	0.3218	0.2254	0.1831	0.0141	0.0704	0.1972	0.2676

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0390
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1700
predicted_AVG	0.1865
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_H	0.5910
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3091
predicted_R	0.2700
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2597
predicted_SO	0.8880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0390	0.0146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0870	3.1700	3.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1865	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6090	0.5450	0.5850	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5910	0.5529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3091	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1740	0.2700	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3020	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2600	0.2597	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8260	0.8880	0.8493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Starling Marte (516782) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	1.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.500	-0.136	-0.250
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.333	-0.160	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.316	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.023
predicted_H	0.990	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.000
predicted_R	0.201	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.971	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.316	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.002
predicted_H	0.964	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.034
predicted_R	0.192	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.252	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.979	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.4667	0.5556	0.5333	0.4667	0.0667	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.3636	0.4211	0.4242	0.3636	0.0606	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.60	12	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.3333	0.3864	0.4103	0.3333	0.0513	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4500
predicted_AVG	0.3167
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3777
predicted_R	0.2690
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.4208
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2140	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.4500	3.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3180	0.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0920	0.9904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3777	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2690	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2900	0.2633	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4208	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9130	0.9712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	516782
playerID	516782
playerName	Starling Marte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1988

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.135	0.333
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	0.000	0.244	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.219	0.500
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.333
predicted_SO	0.867	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.015
predicted_H	0.687	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.391	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.864	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.003
predicted_H	0.668	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.010
predicted_R	0.374	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.871	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.60	45	-	171.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	22.000	18.000	20.000	39.000	0.1988	0.2806	0.3333	0.1988	0.0292	0.1286	0.1170	0.2281

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.1906
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2691
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.2808
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0890	0.0700	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0250	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8000	3.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1906	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4070	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7250	0.6867	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0740	0.0716	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2691	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3770	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4210	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	0.8590	0.8637	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3016

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.938	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.938	4.000	-0.938	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.250	-0.302	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.479	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.479	0.000	0.521	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	1.000	-1.188	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.479	0.000	-0.479	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.250	-0.487	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	0.229	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.938	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.479	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.911	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.014
predicted_H	1.104	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.461	-0.004
predicted_H	1.075	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.138	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.011
predicted_R	0.411	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.425	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.771	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.938

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3953	0.6053	0.3158	0.0790	0.1579	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.60	48	-	189.000	57.000	12.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	22.000	23.000	37.000	0.3016	0.3738	0.4868	0.3016	0.0370	0.1217	0.1217	0.1958

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2240
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.2903
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3620
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.4664
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2240	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9380	3.8730	3.9111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4790	0.4440	0.4645	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1240	1.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3620	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.3880	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4500	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4664	0.4662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7560	0.7648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Bailey Falter (663559) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 3

All-history rows before 20260519: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	3.667	3.000	2.333	3.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.700	2.000	1.300	1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	1.667	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	5.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.1250	2.6250	1.1250	2.0625	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	3	5.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.1250	2.6250	1.1250	2.0625	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875
season	0.20	3	5.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.1250	2.6250	1.1250	2.0625	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5880
predicted_ER	2.2570
predicted_ERA	5.2525
predicted_H	4.3910
predicted_HR	0.5430
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.5430
predicted_WHIP	1.5457

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.5880	3.2733	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2570	2.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2525	5.2525	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.3910	5.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5430	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.5430	3.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5457	1.5457	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	72

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	10.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	663559
playerID	663559
playerName	Bailey Falter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Alex Lange (656638) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.079	1.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.8823	0.3529	0.5294	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	3.2727	1.2727	0.3636	0.6364	0.6364	0.4546	0.0000
season	0.20	19	21.200	13.000	19.000	13.000	22.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4769	0.6000	0.8769	0.6000	1.0154	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_ER	0.4400
predicted_ERA	3.9598
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7890
predicted_WHIP	1.3078

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4350	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4400	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9598	3.9598	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8730	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7890	0.9108	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3078	1.3078	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	656638
playerID	656638
playerName	Alex Lange
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	1.684	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.942	1.200	0.058	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.368	1.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.9375	0.3750	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.7500	0.2812	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	26.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.5000	0.3000	1.3000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	3.2414
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1330
predicted_WHIP	1.2263

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3560	1.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3600	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2414	3.2414	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8710	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1330	1.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2263	1.2263	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.450	2.000	0.550	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	1.2581	0.1935	0.8710	0.3871	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	20	18.100	7.000	17.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	3.4364	1.4727	0.3818	0.9273	0.5454	0.4909	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.3839
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8380
predicted_WHIP	1.3344

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4090	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3839	3.3839	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9250	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0596	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8380	0.9343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3344	1.3344	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_BOS@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	1.0000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.9000	1.2000	0.1000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	20	19.100	7.000	15.000	13.000	17.000	3.2586	1.4483	0.3621	0.7759	0.6724	0.8793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	3.1606
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9530
predicted_WHIP	1.3661

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4810	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3510	0.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1606	3.1606	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8850	1.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9530	0.9807	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3661	1.3661	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	1.233	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.7500	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.200	5.000	13.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	2.8723	1.3404	0.3191	0.8298	0.5106	0.7660	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_ER	0.3000
predicted_ERA	3.9019
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6060
predicted_WHIP	1.4446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2650	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3000	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9019	3.9019	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7350	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6060	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4446	1.4446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260519_CHW@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.544, "home_win_probability": 0.45599999999999996, "away_win_probability": 0.544, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "confidence": 0.544, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 3 SEA", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHW 5 - 4 SEA	CHW	0.544	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHW 6 - 3 SEA	CHW	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHW	7-3	0.700	5.80	5.50	3	2W	hot	weak
Home SEA	4-6	0.400	4.50	4.30	2	3L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHW	24-22	0.522	-7	-0.152	True
Home SEA	22-26	0.458	6	0.125	True
Signal	-	-	0.277	0.182	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-10	SEA @ CHW	1 - 2	CHW	1	close
2026-05-09	SEA @ CHW	1 - 6	CHW	5	blowout
2026-05-08	SEA @ CHW	12 - 8	SEA	4	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHW	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHW	33	9	5	0	3	2	9
Player finalized SEA	32	9	4	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional CHW	31.57	7.41	4.52	1.39	4.28	3.60	8.43
Player model fractional SEA	31.21	6.77	4.46	0.92	3.51	3.61	8.00
Simulation box CHW	37	11	6	3	6	4	11
Simulation box SEA	35	8	3	2	3	1	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHW	Starter	Anthony Kay	4.10	3	7	6	1	5.06	1.54	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.41	1.25	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	2.10	0	2	1	0	4.52	1.35	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	1	0	1	1	0	4.69	1.40	True
Home SEA	Starter	Bryce Miller	5	2	6	5	1	4.08	1.38	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Alex Hoppe	1	2	2	3	2	4.29	1.30	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1	1	1	1	0	3.61	1.21	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	1	1	2	1	4.10	1.27	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	0	1	0	0	4.47	1.54	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHW

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	-0.705	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.094	0.333
predicted_BB	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_R	0.773	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.000	-0.164	0.333
predicted_SO	0.705	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.705	1.000	-0.705	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.659	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.773	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.554	-
predicted_SO	0.705	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.028
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.724	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.576	-0.083
predicted_H	0.928	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.276	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.777	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.772	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.576	-0.000
predicted_H	0.931	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.274	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.002
predicted_R	0.781	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.531	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.712	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.6500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4186	0.7500	0.3333	0.1111	0.3056	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	39.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	29.000	34.000	29.000	31.000	0.2393	0.3636	0.4969	0.2393	0.0675	0.1779	0.1779	0.1902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2581
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.2850
predicted_OBP	0.3519
predicted_R	0.7830
predicted_RBI	0.8040
predicted_SLG	0.5542
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1590	0.2270	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.7500	3.7235	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2581	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6590	0.4570	0.5759	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9680	0.9280	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2850	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3519	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7730	0.7830	0.7771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8040	0.7722	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5540	0.5542	0.5541	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7050	0.7210	0.7116	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	3.000	1.382	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.912	0.000	-0.912	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	2.000	0.853	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.021
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.532	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	0.031
predicted_H	0.909	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.113

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.532	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000
predicted_H	0.912	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.019
predicted_R	0.467	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.034	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4375	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.2759	0.3714	0.4483	0.2759	0.0345	0.1035	0.1724	0.2069
season	0.60	34	-	123.000	31.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	16.000	15.000	9.000	39.000	0.2520	0.2985	0.4065	0.2520	0.0244	0.1301	0.0732	0.3171

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.2717
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3344
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.4617
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2290	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0290	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.4000	3.5316	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2717	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.3430	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9240	0.9095	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1200	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3344	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4990	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4310	0.4244	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4617	0.4619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	0.8620	1.0340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2317

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	1.273	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.000	-0.032	0.200
predicted_BB	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.386	1.000	-0.386	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.130	-0.050
predicted_R	0.523	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.523	0.000	0.477	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.705	0.000	-0.705	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	-0.118	0.400
predicted_SO	1.273	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	3.000	0.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.386	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.523	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.574	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.749	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.011
predicted_H	0.930	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.088	-
predicted_HR	0.323	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.574	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.635	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.749	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000
predicted_H	0.933	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.321	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.023
predicted_R	0.577	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.639	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.551	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.274	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.8421	0.3684	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	3.000	15.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.6154	0.2564	0.1026	0.2051	0.0769	0.3846
season	0.60	44	-	164.000	38.000	8.000	13.000	31.000	23.000	17.000	56.000	0.2317	0.3298	0.5183	0.2317	0.0793	0.1890	0.1037	0.3415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.9880
predicted_HBP	0.0880
predicted_HR	0.3420
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.6710
predicted_SLG	0.5741
predicted_SO	1.2750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1540	0.1705	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7800	3.7487	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3860	0.3600	0.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9880	0.9302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0880	0.0880	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3420	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5230	0.6470	0.5738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6710	0.6350	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5740	0.5741	0.5740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.2750	1.2738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2407

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.667	0.509	0.083
predicted_BB	0.822	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.822	1.000	0.178	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	2.000	2.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.330	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.378	0.000	1.622	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.750	0.420	0.050
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	0.000	3.289	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.587	2.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.568	0.667	1.682	1.583
predicted_SO	1.422	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.422	0.000	-1.422	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.822	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.402	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.587	-
predicted_SO	1.422	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.568	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.816	-0.006
predicted_H	0.931	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.333	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.402	0.000
predicted_R	0.741	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.597	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.587	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.307	-0.115

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.816	-0.000
predicted_H	0.933	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.331	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.399	-0.003
predicted_R	0.745	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.559	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.307	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.092

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	0.3750	0.5238	0.8125	0.3750	0.1250	0.1875	0.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	0.2647	0.4186	0.5588	0.2647	0.0882	0.1177	0.2647	0.3235
season	0.60	45	-	162.000	39.000	2.000	17.000	32.000	33.000	37.000	64.000	0.2407	0.3800	0.5679	0.2407	0.1049	0.1975	0.2284	0.3951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5220
predicted_AVG	0.2687
predicted_BB	0.8070
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3380
predicted_OBP	0.4020
predicted_R	0.7520
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.5865
predicted_SO	1.1420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0440	0.1010	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5220	3.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2687	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8220	0.8070	0.8158	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9460	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3380	0.3333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4020	0.4020	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.7520	0.7408	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6070	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5870	0.5865	0.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4220	1.1420	1.3067	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	4
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Edgar Quero (700337) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1646

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.435	3.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.333	0.335	0.167
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	1.000	1.435	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.258	0.250
predicted_R	0.087	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.087	0.000	0.913	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.177	0.333	0.323	0.167
predicted_SO	0.913	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.913	1.000	0.087	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.435	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.087	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.228	-
predicted_SO	0.913	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.488	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.034
predicted_H	0.555	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.130	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.488	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000
predicted_H	0.556	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.017
predicted_R	0.131	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.195	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.946	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1667	0.1905	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	0.1667	0.2143	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.60	23	-	79.000	13.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	21.000	0.1646	0.2418	0.1772	0.1646	0.0886	0.1013	0.2658

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.1850
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2457
predicted_R	0.2010
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.2283
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.0630	0.0505	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4350	3.5750	3.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1850	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2590	0.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6610	0.5546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2457	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0870	0.2010	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4330	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2280	0.2283	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9130	1.0010	0.9462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	700337
playerID	700337
playerName	Edgar Quero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.030	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.030	4.000	0.970	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.350	1.000	-0.100	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.697	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	1.000	1.303	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.121	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	0.010
predicted_H	0.686	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.283	0.000
predicted_H	0.689	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.123	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.023
predicted_R	0.386	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.699	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.3529	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2258	0.2941	0.5161	0.2258	0.0645	0.2258	0.0968	0.1935
season	0.60	33	-	100.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	11.000	9.000	23.000	0.2500	0.3119	0.3500	0.2500	0.0200	0.1100	0.0900	0.2300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2660
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3083
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.5530
predicted_SLG	0.4326
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1750	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0300	3.2660	3.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3000	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7920	0.6865	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1470	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3083	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4640	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5530	0.4776	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4326	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.7010	0.6985	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	4.000	0.923	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	3.000	1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.185	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	0.009
predicted_H	0.656	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.097	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.000
predicted_R	0.207	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.366	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.185	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000
predicted_H	0.658	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.017
predicted_R	0.209	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.964	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2424	0.3000	0.1667	0.0333	0.1333	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.60	13	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.3250	0.2250	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4040
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.2788
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.3615
predicted_SO	1.0470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1340	0.0958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.4040	3.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2580	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7500	0.6562	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1120	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2788	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.3160	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4190	0.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3615	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	1.0470	0.9639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 26

All-history rows before 20260519: 26

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_AB	3.462	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	3.000	1.538	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.667	0.122	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.962	2.000	1.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.667	0.023	-0.267
predicted_R	0.577	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.577	0.000	0.423	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.667	0.400	0.133
predicted_SO	0.538	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	0.000	1.462	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.577	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.008
predicted_3B	0.063	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.501	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	-0.013
predicted_H	0.981	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.233	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.562	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.063	0.000
predicted_AB	3.501	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000
predicted_H	0.984	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.233	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.036
predicted_R	0.565	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.005
predicted_SO	0.577	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.3143	0.3846	0.3714	0.3143	0.0000	0.0571	0.0286	0.2000
season	0.60	26	-	90.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	0.2778	0.3774	0.4000	0.2778	0.0111	0.1000	0.0778	0.1556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.5640
predicted_AVG	0.2847
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.0150
predicted_HBP	0.2330
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3661
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.2970
predicted_SLG	0.3929
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1740	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0400	0.0627	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.5640	3.5013	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.2350	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0150	0.9812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2330	0.2330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3661	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5770	0.5370	0.5616	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2970	0.2866	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3929	0.3930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.6390	0.5769	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2654

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	5.000	-0.767	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.068	0.333
predicted_BB	0.442	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	0.000	1.558	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	0.930	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.261	0.600
predicted_R	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.674	1.000	0.326	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.957	1.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.674	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.704	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	0.001
predicted_H	0.811	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.654	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.085

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.443	0.000
predicted_H	0.814	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.011
predicted_R	0.658	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.915	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.0625
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2353	0.3077	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.1471	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.60	43	-	162.000	43.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	29.000	19.000	43.000	0.2654	0.3388	0.3765	0.2654	0.0185	0.0617	0.1173	0.2654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.2331
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3135
predicted_R	0.6250
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.3371
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.1640	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.6120	3.7036	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2331	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.4450	0.4432	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8420	0.8113	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3135	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6740	0.6250	0.6540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3470	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3371	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7930	0.9154	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Anthony Kay (641743) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.111	2.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	2.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.889	6.000	1.111	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.322	6.000	-0.222	-1.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	3.222	4.000	3.778	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 7.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	16.000	31.000	10.000	17.000	4.000	6.0845	1.7324	0.6761	1.3099	0.4225	0.7183	0.1690
last_10	0.35	9	41.000	21.000	44.000	19.000	29.000	6.000	4.6098	1.5366	0.5122	1.0732	0.4634	0.7073	0.1463
season	0.20	9	41.000	21.000	44.000	19.000	29.000	6.000	4.6098	1.5366	0.5122	1.0732	0.4634	0.7073	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2930
predicted_ER	3.0900
predicted_ERA	5.0557
predicted_H	6.1550
predicted_HR	0.8230
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.3930
predicted_WHIP	1.5359

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.2930	1.6454	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.0900	2.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0557	5.0557	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.1550	6.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.8230	1.4125	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.0000	5.1000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.3930	5.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5359	1.5359	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	7
HR	2
BF	20
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641743
playerID	641743
playerName	Anthony Kay
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 6

All-history rows before 20260519: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	3.4128
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0220
predicted_WHIP	1.2499

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3440	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4128	3.4128	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9060	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0220	1.0069	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2499	1.2499	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_ER	0.2520
predicted_ERA	4.5176
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4560
predicted_WHIP	1.3510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1920	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2520	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5176	4.5176	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4870	0.8649	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4560	1.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3510	1.3510	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.450	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_ER	0.1820
predicted_ERA	4.6875
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.4018

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1390	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1820	0.7966	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6875	4.6875	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3520	0.8388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3160	0.8299	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4018	1.4018	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Home Team: SEA

Patrick Wisdom (621550) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.007	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.548	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.374	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.863	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-
predicted_3B	0.007	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.374	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.101	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.402	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.863	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.005
predicted_3B	0.008	0.001
predicted_AB	3.588	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.003
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.015
predicted_H	0.829	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.001
predicted_R	0.450	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.006
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.008	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000
predicted_H	0.829	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.002
predicted_R	0.449	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.001
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3961
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1490	0.1820	0.1542	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0070	0.0140	0.0081	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.8010	3.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2443	0.2306	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3740	0.2820	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9290	0.8287	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1010	0.1230	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3052	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4950	0.4495	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4020	0.4750	0.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3961	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8630	0.8510	0.8611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2597

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.935	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.935	4.000	0.065	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.750	0.490	0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	3.000	1.978	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.109	0.000	1.891	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.750	0.425	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.326	1.000	0.674	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.478	1.000	2.522	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	2.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.750	1.880	1.500
predicted_SO	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	0.000	-0.652	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.935	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.326	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.916	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	0.021
predicted_H	1.062	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.626	-0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.916	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.392	0.000
predicted_H	1.062	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.018
predicted_R	0.353	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.400	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.359	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.626	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.935

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.3077	0.3864	0.3590	0.3077	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.1026
season	0.60	46	-	181.000	47.000	5.000	5.000	22.000	15.000	17.000	30.000	0.2597	0.3250	0.3702	0.2597	0.0276	0.1216	0.0939	0.1658

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8880
predicted_AVG	0.2849
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3556
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.3805
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.1510	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9350	3.8880	3.9156	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2849	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.4220	0.3914	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1080	1.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3556	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3260	0.3930	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4160	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3805	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.5900	0.6265	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 49

All-history rows before 20260519: 49

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	2.000	-0.265	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.612	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.612	4.000	0.388	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.500	-0.055	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.408	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.408	0.000	-0.408	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.102	2.000	-0.102	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.082	0.000	-0.082	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.500	-0.138	-0.250
predicted_R	0.673	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.673	1.000	-0.673	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.388	1.000	-0.388	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	1.000	-0.208	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.612	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.408	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.673	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.016
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.613	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	0.001
predicted_H	1.089	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.102	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.645	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.007	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000
predicted_H	1.089	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.102	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.372	-0.018
predicted_R	0.644	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.472	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.4054	0.4651	0.5946	0.4054	0.0270	0.1892	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.60	49	-	177.000	54.000	13.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	33.000	20.000	49.000	0.3051	0.3883	0.4576	0.3051	0.0226	0.1073	0.1130	0.2768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.3130
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	1.1310
predicted_HBP	0.1020
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3899
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4657
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3030	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0120	0.0167	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6120	3.6150	3.6132	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3130	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4080	0.4100	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1310	1.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1020	0.1020	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3899	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6730	0.6060	0.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4910	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4657	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0170	1.0070	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Rob Refsnyder (608701) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.1110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	2.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.126	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.003
predicted_H	0.526	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.281	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.126	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.247	0.000
predicted_H	0.526	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.002
predicted_R	0.281	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.264	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1250	0.1944	0.2188	0.1250	0.0312	0.0625	0.0938	0.2812
season	0.60	12	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1111	0.1750	0.1944	0.1111	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3890
predicted_AVG	0.1713
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	0.5810
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.2273
predicted_R	0.3470
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.2757
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0700	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3890	3.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1713	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2410	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5810	0.5263	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2273	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3470	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2940	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2757	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9020	0.8554	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	608701
playerID	608701
playerName	Rob Refsnyder
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Connor Joe (656582) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 7

All-history rows before 20260519: 7

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	0.190	0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.283	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.333
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.129	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.008
predicted_H	0.580	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.329	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.129	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.006
predicted_R	0.329	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.288	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.4000	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	7	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.3333	0.1429	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.3810
season	0.60	7	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.3333	0.1429	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.3810

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4540
predicted_AVG	0.1973
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2578
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.3895
predicted_SO	1.0290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1850	0.1549	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4540	3.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1973	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2570	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6810	0.5801	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1550	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4380	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3360	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3895	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0290	1.1106	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	656582
playerID	656582
playerName	Connor Joe
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Mitch Garver (641598) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 15

All-history rows before 20260519: 15

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	4.000	0.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.867	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	3.000	-1.133	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.867	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.152	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.808	-0.059
predicted_H	0.554	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.622	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.808	0.000
predicted_H	0.553	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.015
predicted_R	0.621	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.0667	0.2632	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	0.1935	0.3750	0.2903	0.1935	0.0323	0.0968	0.2903	0.3548
season	0.60	15	-	46.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	13.000	17.000	0.1739	0.3559	0.2391	0.1739	0.0217	0.0652	0.2826	0.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3100
predicted_AVG	0.1860
predicted_BB	0.6990
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3291
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	0.3260
predicted_SLG	0.3025
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0530	0.0186	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.3100	3.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1860	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8670	0.6990	0.8080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6160	0.5537	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1080	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3291	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6620	0.6218	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3260	0.2897	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3025	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.0680	1.1102	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641598
playerID	641598
playerName	Mitch Garver
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 49

All-history rows before 20260519: 49

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2428

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.020	0.000	-0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	4.000	0.469	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.007	0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_R	0.408	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.408	0.000	-0.408	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.103	0.250
predicted_SO	0.898	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.898	0.000	0.102	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.408	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	0.898	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.020
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.577	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	-0.009
predicted_H	0.710	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.023
predicted_R	0.356	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.501	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.296	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.1351	0.2000	0.1892	0.1351	0.0000	0.1351	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.60	49	-	173.000	42.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	26.000	20.000	15.000	44.000	0.2428	0.3161	0.3526	0.2428	0.0173	0.1503	0.0867	0.2543

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6430
predicted_AVG	0.2188
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2831
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.5630
predicted_SLG	0.3238
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.2110	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0130	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.6430	3.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2188	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.2850	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7970	0.7104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2831	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4080	0.2830	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5630	0.5023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8980	0.7930	0.8549	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Colt Emerson (806068) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_R	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	-0.035
predicted_H	0.596	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.918	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.465	0.000
predicted_H	0.595	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.149	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.007
predicted_R	0.917	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.513	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.104
predicted_SO	0.559	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.2296
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.3015
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.7150
predicted_SLG	0.4473
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1420	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6500	3.1383	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2296	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3340	0.4647	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.8380	0.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.2100	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3015	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	0.6160	0.9183	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.7150	0.5143	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4473	0.4471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7780	0.5592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	806068
playerID	806068
playerName	Colt Emerson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 49

All-history rows before 20260519: 49

System season_avg: 0.2510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2513

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.980	4.000	0.020	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.251	0.250	-0.001	0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	-0.068	0.000
predicted_R	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.510	1.000	0.490	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	1.000	-0.171	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.020	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.020	1.000	0.980	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.347	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.510	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.020	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.974	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.004
predicted_H	0.827	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000
predicted_H	0.827	-0.000
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.166	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.012
predicted_R	0.514	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.365	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.007
predicted_SO	1.022	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0750	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.60	49	-	195.000	49.000	9.000	8.000	21.000	25.000	17.000	50.000	0.2513	0.3178	0.4205	0.2513	0.0410	0.1077	0.0872	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9650
predicted_AVG	0.2149
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.2845
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.3840
predicted_SO	1.0270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1540	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.9650	3.9738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2149	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3470	0.3570	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8520	0.8274	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1710	0.1646	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2845	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5100	0.5220	0.5150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3730	0.3654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3840	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0200	1.0270	1.0229	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.251

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Bryce Miller (682243) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	8.000	8.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	5.100	-0.100	-0.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	5.100	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	1.5000	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	1	5.100	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	1.5000	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875
season	0.20	1	5.100	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	1.5000	0.1875	0.5625	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7520
predicted_ER	2.2920
predicted_ERA	4.0806
predicted_H	5.2200
predicted_HR	0.7070
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.4810
predicted_WHIP	1.3791

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7520	1.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2920	2.0870	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0806	4.0806	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.2200	5.0655	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7070	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.4810	5.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3791	1.3791	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	682243
playerID	682243
playerName	Bryce Miller
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.375	2.000	1.625	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.200	-0.050	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786
season	0.20	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.5190
predicted_ERA	4.2866
predicted_H	1.0910
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0070
predicted_WHIP	1.2980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3230	1.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5190	1.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2866	4.2866	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0910	2.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1040	0.6939	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0070	1.6608	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2980	1.2980	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.579	1.000	-0.579	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.6000	0.2000
season	0.20	19	18.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	30.000	3.000	5.0000	1.2778	0.5556	0.8889	0.3889	1.6667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_ER	0.4010
predicted_ERA	3.6109
predicted_H	0.8890
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2640
predicted_WHIP	1.2083

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3200	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4010	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6109	3.6109	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8890	0.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1570	0.6599	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2640	1.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2083	1.2083	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.882	1.000	1.118	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.082	0.100	-0.082	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	0.9643	0.4286	0.7500	0.2143	0.9643	0.1071
season	0.20	17	19.100	6.000	15.000	5.000	17.000	3.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.7759	0.2586	0.8793	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.4260
predicted_ERA	4.0967
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8480
predicted_WHIP	1.2748

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3430	0.7301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4260	0.7642	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0967	4.0967	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8490	1.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0970	0.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8480	0.9375	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2748	1.2748	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.870	2.000	-0.870	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.730	0.200	0.270	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.783	1.000	0.217	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	6.2308	2.0769	0.6923	1.3846	0.6923	1.1539	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	4.1538	1.7308	0.4615	1.3846	0.3462	0.9231	0.2308
season	0.20	23	21.000	6.000	20.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	2.5714	1.3333	0.2857	0.9524	0.3810	0.8571	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.4970
predicted_ERA	4.4718
predicted_H	1.1020
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9800
predicted_WHIP	1.5399

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4380	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4970	0.2085	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4718	4.4718	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1020	0.4623	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2110	0.0885	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9800	0.9916	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5399	1.5399	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CHW@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260519_CIN@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.581221, "home_win_probability": 0.581221, "away_win_probability": 0.418779, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.581221, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 4 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	0.581	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	4-6	0.400	5.20	5.80	-6	3L	hot	weak
Home PHI	8-2	0.800	5.60	3	26	5W	hot	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	24-24	0.500	-36	-0.750	True
Home PHI	25-23	0.521	-16	-0.333	True
Signal	-	-	0.417	0.448	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	CIN @ PHI	4 - 5	PHI	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target PHI	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	34	8	6	0	5	5	9
Player finalized PHI	34	8	3	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional CIN	32.47	7.67	5.08	1.42	4.43	4.35	7.97
Player model fractional PHI	33.30	7.64	4.16	1.00	3.94	2.41	7.28
Simulation box CIN	38	11	3	0	3	4	9
Simulation box PHI	32	8	4	0	4	4	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Chase Burns	6	2	7	5	3	2.55	1.09	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1	2	3	2	1	4.32	1.20	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	0	0	1	0	5.33	1.45	True
Home PHI	Starter	Jesús Luzardo	5.10	2	7	8	3	3.82	1.28	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1	0	1	2	0	4.11	1.36	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	1	0	1	3.01	1.17	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	0.20	1	0	1	0	4.02	1.43	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.32	1.19	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2486

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	4.000	1.229	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.249	0.500	-0.049	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.542	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.542	0.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	2.000	0.062	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	-0.140	-0.300
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	2.000	-0.583	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	1.250	-0.275	-1.050
predicted_SO	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.542	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.569	0.027
predicted_H	0.886	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.820	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.004
predicted_H	0.869	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.182	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.019
predicted_R	0.546	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.477	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.420	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.825	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.3947	0.2632	0.0263	0.0526	0.1579	0.2368
season	0.60	48	-	181.000	45.000	8.000	11.000	32.000	28.000	26.000	39.000	0.2486	0.3397	0.4751	0.2486	0.0608	0.1768	0.1436	0.2155

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2483
predicted_BB	0.6080
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.3517
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.4400
predicted_SO	0.8310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1430	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.7150	3.7479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5420	0.6080	0.5693	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9220	0.8856	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1890	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3517	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5410	0.5656	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5130	0.4936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4400	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.8310	0.8199	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.249

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1652

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.382	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.382	4.000	0.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.250	-0.165	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.559	1.000	-0.559	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.250	-0.258	-0.250
predicted_R	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.118	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	1.000	0.882	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.382	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.147	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.460	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.034
predicted_H	0.518	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.171	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.460	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.404	-0.003
predicted_H	0.508	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.001
predicted_R	0.165	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.488	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.106	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1429	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1351	0.1951	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.1892	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.60	34	-	115.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	5.000	15.000	38.000	0.1652	0.2576	0.2696	0.1652	0.0261	0.1130	0.1304	0.3304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5800
predicted_AVG	0.1652
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_H	0.5910
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.2375
predicted_R	0.2080
predicted_RBI	0.5750
predicted_SLG	0.2833
predicted_SO	1.0700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0770	0.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3820	3.5800	3.4604	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1652	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.3550	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5910	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1140	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2375	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1470	0.2080	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5750	0.5055	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2833	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.0700	1.0990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	3.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	0.460	0.750
predicted_BB	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.250	0.390	0.550
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.652	0.000	0.348	1.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.004
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.534	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.643	-0.057
predicted_H	0.923	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.848	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000
predicted_SO	0.619	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	3.534	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.639	-0.004
predicted_H	0.906	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.231	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.002
predicted_R	0.580	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.819	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.551	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.624	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.6667	0.2857	0.0952	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5833	0.2778	0.0556	0.3333	0.2222	0.1389
season	0.60	20	-	69.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	12.000	14.000	12.000	0.2899	0.4096	0.6522	0.2899	0.0870	0.2754	0.2029	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.6750
predicted_AVG	0.2754
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_OBP	0.3684
predicted_R	0.6010
predicted_RBI	0.9280
predicted_SLG	0.5762
predicted_SO	0.6520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2600	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0420	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.6750	3.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2754	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.5470	0.6430	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0120	0.9229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2540	0.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3684	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6010	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.9280	0.8477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5762	0.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6520	0.6194	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.203	0.500
predicted_BB	0.396	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.396	1.000	0.604	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	0.000	0.812	2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.238	0.350
predicted_R	0.729	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.729	0.000	0.271	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.646	0.000	-0.646	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.531	0.000	0.219	0.750
predicted_SO	1.208	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.208	1.000	-0.208	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.396	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.729	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	1.208	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.983	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.020
predicted_H	1.212	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.727	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000
predicted_SO	1.159	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.983	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.003
predicted_H	1.190	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.182	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.020
predicted_R	0.702	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.491	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.509	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.167	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6316	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	0.4146	0.4545	0.6098	0.4146	0.0244	0.0732	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.60	48	-	192.000	57.000	12.000	11.000	31.000	35.000	19.000	58.000	0.2969	0.3615	0.5312	0.2969	0.0573	0.1615	0.0990	0.3021

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9580
predicted_AVG	0.3143
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.3792
predicted_R	0.7240
predicted_RBI	0.5210
predicted_SLG	0.5459
predicted_SO	1.0900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3480	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9580	3.9826	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3143	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3960	0.3490	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2440	1.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1880	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3792	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7290	0.7240	0.7269	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5210	0.5087	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5459	0.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2080	1.0900	1.1592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Dane Myers (667472) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 10

All-history rows before 20260519: 10

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.271	0.250
predicted_BB	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.228	0.350
predicted_R	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	1.000	0.264	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	1.100	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.550	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.636	-0.064
predicted_H	0.824	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	1.051	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.486	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.214	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.632	-0.004
predicted_H	0.808	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.231	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.011
predicted_R	1.015	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.508	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.055
predicted_SO	1.222	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	7.000	12.000	0.2286	0.3721	0.4857	0.2286	0.0857	0.1429	0.2000	0.3429
season	0.60	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	7.000	12.000	0.2286	0.3721	0.4857	0.2286	0.0857	0.1429	0.2000	0.3429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2495
predicted_BB	0.5060
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.2600
predicted_OBP	0.3555
predicted_R	0.9510
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.4858
predicted_SO	1.2430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0720	0.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6530	3.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2495	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.5060	0.6360	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9120	0.8235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2600	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3555	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.1000	0.9510	1.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5800	0.5264	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4858	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2430	1.2142	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	667472
playerID	667472
playerName	Dane Myers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 4

All-history rows before 20260519: 4

System season_avg: 0.3570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.357	0.667	0.143	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	2.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.471	0.667	0.029	-0.167
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.643	0.667	-0.143	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.551	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.674	-0.076
predicted_H	0.940	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.708	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.551	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.669	-0.004
predicted_H	0.923	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.154	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.012
predicted_R	0.684	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.341	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.772	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.20	4	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143
season	0.60	4	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6920
predicted_AVG	0.2851
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	1.0530
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3650
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.4853
predicted_SO	0.8140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2080	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6920	3.5506	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2851	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.4610	0.6739	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0530	0.9403	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1710	0.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5920	0.7084	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3900	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4853	0.4851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8140	0.7669	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.357

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	694362
playerID	694362
playerName	Blake Dunn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.1470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.202	0.000	-0.202	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	0.021
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.251	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.224	0.002
predicted_H	0.520	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.323	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.555	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.251	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.222	-0.002
predicted_H	0.510	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.029
predicted_R	0.312	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.237	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.246	-0.042
predicted_SO	0.558	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2188	0.2647	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875
season	0.60	36	-	116.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	0.1466	0.2016	0.2328	0.1466	0.0172	0.0431	0.0690	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.1859
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2397
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.2860
predicted_SLG	0.2879
predicted_SO	0.5530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.1100	0.0772	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.2960	3.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1859	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2260	0.2236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.6120	0.5197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2397	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.3930	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2860	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2879	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.5530	0.5548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.147

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	1.227	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.250	-0.023	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.523	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	0.159	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.125	-0.050
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.250	-0.167	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.977	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	2.000	1.023	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.523	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.722	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	-0.008
predicted_H	0.950	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.502	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.511	-0.003
predicted_H	0.933	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.013
predicted_R	0.485	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.609	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.457	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.935	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.8235	0.3529	0.1177	0.2941	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.2941	0.3846	0.5588	0.2941	0.0588	0.2647	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.60	44	-	166.000	37.000	9.000	5.000	19.000	20.000	23.000	43.000	0.2229	0.3246	0.3675	0.2229	0.0301	0.1145	0.1386	0.2590

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6480
predicted_AVG	0.2606
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.3540
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.6310
predicted_SLG	0.4833
predicted_SO	0.8610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2560	0.2259	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.6480	3.7217	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5230	0.5030	0.5148	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9510	0.9504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1840	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3540	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5700	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6310	0.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4833	0.4831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	0.8610	0.9294	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2654

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.265	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	1.000	-0.956	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	-0.137	-0.300
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.667	-0.451	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.822	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.822	0.000	1.178	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.822	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.675	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	1.047	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.612	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.066

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.002
predicted_H	1.027	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.018
predicted_R	0.591	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.463	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.761	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.5000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	0.3171	0.3636	0.4634	0.3171	0.0244	0.1463	0.0732	0.0976
season	0.60	45	-	162.000	43.000	9.000	7.000	18.000	24.000	15.000	37.000	0.2654	0.3370	0.4506	0.2654	0.0432	0.1111	0.0926	0.2284

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2944
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3572
predicted_R	0.7270
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.4535
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2460	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7830	3.6747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2944	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1140	1.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1170	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3572	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.7270	0.6122	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5080	0.4796	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4535	0.4538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8220	0.6610	0.7562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Chase Burns (695505) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.222	0.000	0.778	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	3.889	2.000	1.111	3.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.811	6.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	6.111	7.000	0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	5.000	20.000	9.000	33.000	3.000	1.4674	0.9457	0.1630	0.6522	0.2935	1.0761	0.0978
last_10	0.35	9	53.000	11.000	35.000	18.000	55.000	6.000	1.8679	1.0000	0.2076	0.6604	0.3396	1.0377	0.1132
season	0.20	9	53.000	11.000	35.000	18.000	55.000	6.000	1.8679	1.0000	0.2076	0.6604	0.3396	1.0377	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0110
predicted_ER	1.7000
predicted_ERA	2.5497
predicted_H	4.5400
predicted_HR	0.6790
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.1320
predicted_WHIP	1.0918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0110	2.5064	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.7000	1.8503	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5497	2.5497	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.5400	4.7704	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6790	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	6.1320	6.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0918	1.0918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	112

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.87
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695505
playerID	695505
playerName	Chase Burns
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.696	0.000	0.304	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.435	2.000	1.565	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.696	2.000	1.304	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.200	0.057	-0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.087	0.000	1.913	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.3529	0.8824	0.7059	0.7059	0.1765	1.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.6177	0.6177	0.9706	0.1765
season	0.20	22	23.100	6.000	15.000	13.000	25.000	2.000	2.3143	1.2000	0.2571	0.6429	0.5571	1.0714	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_ER	0.4800
predicted_ERA	4.3235
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9890
predicted_WHIP	1.1982

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3920	0.7382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4800	1.3456	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3235	4.3235	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8060	1.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1820	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.9890	2.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1982	1.1982	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.8889	0.5556
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	14.000	9.000	18.000	5.000	3.5000	1.2778	0.3889	0.7778	0.5000	1.0000	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_ER	0.5920
predicted_ERA	5.3324
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8980
predicted_WHIP	1.4479

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3980	0.1606	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5920	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3324	5.3324	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0500	1.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3100	0.1251	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8980	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4479	1.4479	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: PHI

Rafael Marchán (665561) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.0870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0870

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.538	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.538	3.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_BB	0.077	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.143	0.000	0.107	0.250
predicted_R	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.538	-
predicted_AVG	0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.218	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.548	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.136	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.109	0.032
predicted_H	0.409	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.260	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.189	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.118	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.109	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.145	-0.055
predicted_R	0.272	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.181	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.760	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.118 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0000	0.1176	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.0857	0.1351	0.0857	0.0857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0286	0.2286
season	0.60	13	-	46.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.0870	0.1429	0.1522	0.0870	0.0217	0.0435	0.0217	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.1358
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.4840
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2004
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.2270
predicted_SLG	0.2177
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0650	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5380	3.5670	3.5478	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1360	0.1358	0.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1710	0.1089	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.4840	0.4086	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2004	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.3170	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2270	0.1893	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2180	0.2177	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7520	0.7632	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.087

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	665561
playerID	665561
playerName	Rafael Marchán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2359

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	1.000	0.804	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.239	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.239	4.000	-1.239	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.097	0.083
predicted_BB	0.283	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.283	0.000	0.717	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.218	0.250
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.500	0.323	0.167
predicted_SO	0.978	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	1.000	0.022	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.239	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.283	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.276	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.018
predicted_H	0.993	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.683	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	1.015	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.276	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.002
predicted_BB	0.266	0.001
predicted_H	1.020	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.007
predicted_R	0.714	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.012	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.239

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2800	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.0833	0.0417	0.2917
last_10	0.20	10	-	45.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	0.2222	0.2340	0.2667	0.2222	0.0000	0.0667	0.0222	0.2667
season	0.60	46	-	195.000	46.000	9.000	4.000	15.000	30.000	13.000	45.000	0.2359	0.2823	0.3436	0.2359	0.0205	0.0769	0.0667	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.3280
predicted_AVG	0.2370
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2763
predicted_R	0.7270
predicted_RBI	0.3560
predicted_SLG	0.3349
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.2280	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2390	4.3280	4.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2370	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2830	0.2400	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0260	0.9931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2763	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.7270	0.6830	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3560	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3349	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	1.0680	1.0152	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.721	3.000	-0.721	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.667	0.115	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	1.000	0.721	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.814	2.000	0.186	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	1.000	-0.093	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.750	0.223	-0.250
predicted_R	0.326	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.326	1.000	0.674	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	1.000	0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.331	1.667	0.335	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.558	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.558	0.000	-0.558	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.721	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.326	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.558	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.758	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.010
predicted_H	1.055	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.547	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.270	0.001
predicted_H	1.084	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.147	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.003
predicted_R	0.411	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.545	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.6667	0.4286	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	15.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	0.4054	0.4359	0.7297	0.4054	0.0811	0.1622	0.0541	0.0811
season	0.60	43	-	160.000	35.000	6.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	12.000	24.000	0.2188	0.2768	0.3312	0.2188	0.0250	0.1313	0.0750	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.2903
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	1.1060
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3385
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4661
predicted_SO	0.5320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.2150	0.1706	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7210	3.8110	3.7577	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.2540	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1060	1.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3385	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3260	0.4900	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4620	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4661	0.4660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5580	0.5320	0.5474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2775

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	0.809	1.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.681	3.000	0.319	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_BB	0.574	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.574	1.000	-0.574	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.021	0.000	-0.021	1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.250	-0.123	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.617	1.000	0.383	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.638	0.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.549	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.000	-0.049	0.500
predicted_SO	0.745	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.745	1.000	1.255	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.681	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.574	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.617	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.549	-
predicted_SO	0.745	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.690	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.584	0.010
predicted_H	1.041	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.265	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	0.622	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.704	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.549	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.001
predicted_BB	0.586	0.002
predicted_H	1.069	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.736	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.563	0.014
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.6842	0.3684	0.1053	0.3158	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.5278	0.2778	0.0833	0.1944	0.1944	0.2778
season	0.60	47	-	173.000	48.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	30.000	29.000	27.000	35.000	0.2775	0.3731	0.5491	0.2775	0.0694	0.1734	0.1561	0.2023

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1240
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2891
predicted_BB	0.5980
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2710
predicted_OBP	0.3865
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.5490
predicted_SO	0.8470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.1240	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6810	3.7030	3.6901	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2891	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5740	0.5980	0.5839	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0700	1.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2710	0.2645	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3865	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6170	0.6290	0.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7240	0.7040	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5490	0.5490	0.5490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7450	0.8470	0.7870	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3290

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.250	-0.079	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.275	1.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	-0.102	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.500	-0.221	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	2.000	0.225	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.012
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.894	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	0.002
predicted_H	1.072	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.587	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.894	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.153	0.001
predicted_H	1.101	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.004
predicted_R	0.614	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.794	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2857	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.3077	0.3333	0.3590	0.3077	0.0000	0.0769	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.60	40	-	155.000	51.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	24.000	6.000	31.000	0.3290	0.3515	0.4710	0.3290	0.0258	0.1419	0.0387	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.9230
predicted_AVG	0.2889
predicted_BB	0.1560
predicted_H	1.1330
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3141
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.4092
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2290	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.9230	3.8944	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2889	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1560	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1330	1.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3141	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5690	0.5874	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4410	0.4166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4092	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.8280	0.7965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	1.000	-0.300	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.121	0.333
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	1.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.364	0.667
predicted_SO	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.334	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	0.024
predicted_H	0.661	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	0.877	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.334	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.679	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.028
predicted_R	0.346	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.874	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2353	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429	0.0714	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.2059	0.2432	0.2059	0.2059	0.0000	0.1471	0.0294	0.2647
season	0.60	20	-	66.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	0.2121	0.2429	0.3030	0.2121	0.0152	0.1364	0.0303	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3940
predicted_AVG	0.2112
predicted_BB	0.1670
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2606
predicted_R	0.3850
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.2949
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1140	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.3940	3.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2112	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1670	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7170	0.6615	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2606	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3850	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4590	0.4214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2949	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.9250	0.8772	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2108

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.689	3.000	0.311	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.187	0.500
predicted_SO	1.156	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	0.000	1.844	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.689	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.311	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.676	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.018
predicted_H	0.593	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.158	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.337	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.213	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.294	0.001
predicted_H	0.609	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.158	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.027
predicted_R	0.352	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.001
predicted_SO	1.209	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.0588	0.1905	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	15.000	0.1081	0.1905	0.1351	0.1081	0.0000	0.0270	0.0541	0.4054
season	0.60	45	-	166.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	52.000	0.2108	0.2834	0.3133	0.2108	0.0181	0.0783	0.0843	0.3132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.1715
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.1580
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2544
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.2502
predicted_SO	1.2950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1100	0.1236	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6890	3.6570	3.6759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1715	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3110	0.2680	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6270	0.5933	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1580	0.1580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2544	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3420	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2650	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.2950	1.2129	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	-0.097	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.250	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	0.000	1.308	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.422	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.346	0.013
predicted_H	0.818	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.422	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.347	0.001
predicted_H	0.840	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.025
predicted_R	0.347	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.662	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.3030	0.3947	0.5152	0.3030	0.0606	0.1212	0.1515	0.1818
season	0.60	39	-	132.000	36.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	13.000	27.000	0.2727	0.3469	0.4015	0.2727	0.0152	0.0833	0.0985	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.4770
predicted_AVG	0.2645
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.3680
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.4174
predicted_SO	0.6240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1380	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0280	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.4770	3.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2645	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3660	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9200	0.8181	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1120	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3680	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3520	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4174	0.4172	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.6240	0.6648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	3.000	0.297	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.333	0.031	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.243	1.000	-0.243	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	1.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	1.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.500	-0.020	-0.250
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	2.000	-0.568	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	1.333	-0.159	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.649	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.649	0.000	0.351	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.243	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.649	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.014
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.703	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	0.017
predicted_H	0.799	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.682	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.642	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.261	0.001
predicted_H	0.821	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.009
predicted_R	0.457	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.714	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.640	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2857	0.6111	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.5135	0.2432	0.0541	0.2432	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.60	37	-	137.000	30.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	15.000	9.000	24.000	0.2190	0.2703	0.4088	0.2190	0.0365	0.1533	0.0657	0.1752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2250
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.7020
predicted_AVG	0.2278
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2825
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.4577
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2250	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0290	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.7020	3.7026	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2278	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2430	0.2860	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8430	0.7993	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1890	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2825	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4850	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7160	0.6824	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4577	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6490	0.6310	0.6418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jesús Luzardo (666200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	1.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.111	0.000	-1.111	2.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	5.889	4.000	2.111	4.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.311	6.000	-0.211	-0.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	6.778	4.000	0.222	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	8.000	25.000	8.000	31.000	2.000	2.6667	1.2222	0.2963	0.9259	0.2963	1.1482	0.0741
last_10	0.35	9	49.200	28.000	53.000	13.000	61.000	5.000	5.0738	1.3289	0.5638	1.0671	0.2617	1.2282	0.1007
season	0.20	9	49.200	28.000	53.000	13.000	61.000	5.000	5.0738	1.3289	0.5638	1.0671	0.2617	1.2282	0.1007

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7170
predicted_ER	2.2960
predicted_ERA	3.8156
predicted_H	5.2280
predicted_HR	0.5450
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.9440
predicted_WHIP	1.2825

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7170	2.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2960	2.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8156	3.8156	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.2280	6.6164	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5450	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.9440	6.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2825	1.2825	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	8
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	27
Pitches	111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.07
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666200
playerID	666200
playerName	Jesús Luzardo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.925	1.000	0.075	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.2000	0.4000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	3.000	15.000	2.000	4.3548	1.2581	0.4839	0.9677	0.2903	1.4516	0.1935
season	0.20	20	19.200	9.000	18.000	6.000	24.000	3.000	4.1186	1.2203	0.4576	0.9153	0.3051	1.2203	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_ER	0.4570
predicted_ERA	4.1105
predicted_H	0.9930
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2190
predicted_WHIP	1.3555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3630	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4570	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1105	4.1105	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9930	1.5845	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2190	1.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3555	1.3555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.229	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	0.9000	0.1000	0.4000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	13	12.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	21.000	1.4211	1.0263	0.1579	0.6316	0.3947	1.6579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	3.0107
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2620
predicted_WHIP	1.1712

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3970	0.7776	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3350	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0107	3.0107	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7740	0.2854	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2620	1.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1712	1.1712	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.091	2.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.577	0.200	-0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.045	0.000	-1.045	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	11.000	3.000	12.000	2.1600	1.6800	0.2400	1.3200	0.3600	1.4400
season	0.20	22	16.200	10.000	24.000	8.000	23.000	5.4000	1.9200	0.6000	1.4400	0.4800	1.3800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.3240
predicted_ERA	4.0162
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8510
predicted_WHIP	1.4279

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3240	0.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0162	4.0162	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7770	0.9118	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0225	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8510	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4279	1.4279	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.779	0.100	-0.579	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.4545	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.1739	0.7826	0.1304	0.6522	0.1304	0.7826	0.1304
season	0.20	19	16.200	4.000	12.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	2.1600	1.1400	0.2400	0.7200	0.4200	0.7200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_ER	0.2550
predicted_ERA	3.3168
predicted_H	0.5960
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6140
predicted_WHIP	1.1882

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2280	0.0902	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2550	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3168	3.3168	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5960	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6140	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1882	1.1882	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CIN@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260519_CLE@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.581221, "home_win_probability": 0.418779, "away_win_probability": 0.581221, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 DET", "confidence": 0.581221, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 2 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "CLE 4 - 1 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CLE 4 - 2 DET	CLE	0.581	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CLE 4 - 1 DET	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CLE	7-3	0.700	5.60	3.30	23	3W	hot	strong
Home DET	2-8	0.200	2.50	5	-25	3L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CLE	25-21	0.543	14	0.304	True
Home DET	20-25	0.444	-13	-0.289	True
Signal	-	-	-0.593	-0.742	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	CLE @ DET	8 - 2	CLE	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CLE	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CLE	33	9	6	0	4	4	8
Player finalized DET	32	7	1	0	0	3	9
Player model fractional CLE	32.24	8.10	5.15	1.16	4.64	4.49	6.54
Player model fractional DET	30.34	6.10	3.24	0.67	2.70	3.75	7.64
Simulation box CLE	36	9	4	2	4	3	10
Simulation box DET	31	4	1	1	1	1	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CLE	Starter	Parker Messick	5.20	1	6	3	1	3.49	1.18	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	2	0	1	0	0	3.16	1.08	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	0.20	0	0	1	0	2.53	1.09	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.52	1.33	True
Home DET	Starter	Keider Montero	5.20	3	5	6	2	3.96	1.15	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	1	2	1	0	4.19	1.41	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1	0	2	0	1	3.19	1.08	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1	0	1	2	0	2.91	1.35	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CLE

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	5.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.400	-0.281	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.400	-0.160	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.400	-0.344	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.650	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.591	-0.076
predicted_H	1.036	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.075	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.695	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.599	0.008
predicted_H	1.073	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.006
predicted_R	0.522	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.686	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.4348	0.4348	0.4348	0.4348	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.1739
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.3421	0.4318	0.4474	0.3421	0.0263	0.1316	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.60	18	-	64.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	12.000	12.000	0.2812	0.4103	0.3438	0.2812	0.0156	0.1094	0.1875	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8100
predicted_AVG	0.3019
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	1.1500
predicted_HBP	0.0750
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3878
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3864
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0910	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.8100	3.6497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4600	0.5907	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1500	1.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0750	0.0750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3878	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4750	0.4908	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4090	0.3654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3864	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7440	0.6954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	5.000	0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.400	0.050	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	2.000	0.273	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	2.000	-0.091	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.400	-0.026	-0.150
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	2.000	-0.364	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	3.000	-0.364	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	1.600	-0.050	-1.350
predicted_SO	1.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	2.000	-0.273	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.676	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.018
predicted_H	0.839	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	-0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.356	0.005
predicted_H	0.869	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.011
predicted_R	0.489	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.205	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6842	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	4.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.4872	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.60	33	-	120.000	24.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	12.000	11.000	42.000	0.2000	0.2761	0.3000	0.2000	0.0250	0.1000	0.0917	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7360
predicted_AVG	0.2404
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3150
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.4109
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1420	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.7360	3.6757	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2404	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3780	0.3508	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8980	0.8389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3150	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.6050	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4590	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4109	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.1440	1.2219	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.441	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.441	5.000	1.559	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.144	0.400
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	0.000	1.118	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.064	0.400
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	0.173	0.600
predicted_SO	1.118	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	3.000	0.882	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.441	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.449	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	-0.011
predicted_H	0.742	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.453	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.449	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.003
predicted_BB	0.407	0.006
predicted_H	0.768	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.007
predicted_R	0.482	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.018
predicted_SO	1.063	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2059	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.3235
season	0.60	34	-	117.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	15.000	14.000	38.000	0.2564	0.3359	0.4274	0.2564	0.0342	0.1368	0.1197	0.3248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4620
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2984
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.3363
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1630	0.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4410	3.4620	3.4493	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3850	0.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7610	0.7423	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2984	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.4720	0.4533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4840	0.4695	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3363	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.0170	1.0781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 49

All-history rows before 20260519: 49

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2402

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.204	1.000	-0.204	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.653	4.000	-0.653	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.750	0.093	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.735	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.735	1.000	1.265	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.041	0.000	-0.041	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	3.000	0.122	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.800	0.231	-0.200
predicted_R	0.612	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.612	1.000	-0.612	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.449	3.000	-0.449	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	1.750	-0.097	-1.417
predicted_SO	0.592	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.592	0.000	1.408	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.653	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.735	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.612	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.550	-
predicted_SO	0.592	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.646	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.739	0.004
predicted_H	1.107	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.204	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.000
predicted_R	0.643	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.550	0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.003
predicted_BB	0.749	0.010
predicted_H	1.146	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.209	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.008
predicted_R	0.684	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.681	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.547	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.560	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	0.5294	0.6250	1.0000	0.5294	0.1177	0.3529	0.2941	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	0.3514	0.4681	0.5676	0.3513	0.0541	0.2162	0.2162	0.1351
season	0.60	49	-	179.000	43.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	30.000	36.000	29.000	0.2402	0.3687	0.4302	0.2402	0.0447	0.1229	0.2011	0.1620

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.3110
predicted_BB	0.7440
predicted_H	1.1310
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.4235
predicted_R	0.6870
predicted_RBI	0.6540
predicted_SLG	0.5503
predicted_SO	0.5330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2040	0.2380	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6530	3.6350	3.6455	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7350	0.7440	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1310	1.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2100	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4235	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6120	0.6870	0.6431	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6540	0.6399	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5500	0.5503	0.5501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5920	0.5330	0.5675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.854	4.000	1.146	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.000	-0.072	0.200
predicted_BB	0.537	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	1.000	-0.537	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.049	0.000	-0.049	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.200	-0.157	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.463	1.000	0.537	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.732	2.000	1.268	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	0.319	0.800
predicted_SO	0.463	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.463	2.000	0.537	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.854	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.463	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.872	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	-0.007
predicted_H	0.895	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.708	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.491	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.872	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	0.007
predicted_H	0.927	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.007
predicted_R	0.500	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.753	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.427	0.016
predicted_SO	0.484	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.854

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2917	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.1750	0.2766	0.2750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1750	0.1500	0.1000
season	0.60	41	-	158.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	7.000	30.000	19.000	22.000	19.000	0.2722	0.3571	0.4810	0.2722	0.0443	0.1899	0.1392	0.1202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.8970
predicted_AVG	0.2392
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3247
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.7340
predicted_SLG	0.4111
predicted_SO	0.5320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1700	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0150	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8540	3.8970	3.8716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.5210	0.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9320	0.8953	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1570	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3247	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.4800	0.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7340	0.7080	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4111	0.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4630	0.5320	0.4912	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2876

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	1.000	-0.021	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.255	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.255	2.000	0.745	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.500	-0.038	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.383	2.000	-0.383	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.936	1.000	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.750	-0.125	-0.500
predicted_R	0.468	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.468	3.000	-0.468	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	1.500	-0.162	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.383	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.383	1.000	0.617	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.255	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.468	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	0.383	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.041	0.020
predicted_AB	3.245	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	0.038
predicted_H	0.870	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.544	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	0.443	0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.245	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.427	0.006
predicted_H	0.901	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.048
predicted_R	0.564	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.579	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.436	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3571	0.5263	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.3871	0.4872	0.5806	0.3871	0.0323	0.2258	0.1613	0.1290
season	0.60	47	-	153.000	44.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	26.000	22.000	18.000	18.000	0.2876	0.3750	0.4118	0.2876	0.0261	0.1699	0.1177	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0700
predicted_AB	3.2300
predicted_AVG	0.3102
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.4099
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.4900
predicted_SO	0.5290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1060	0.0940	0.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0700	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2550	3.2300	3.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3102	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.4760	0.4209	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	1.0020	0.8704	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1160	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4099	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4680	0.6210	0.5303	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6230	0.5442	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4900	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3830	0.5290	0.4425	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.105	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.950	3.000	1.050	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	-0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.105	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.157	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	0.014
predicted_H	0.620	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.536	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.157	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.388	0.005
predicted_H	0.642	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.021
predicted_R	0.570	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.2414	0.3529	0.4138	0.2414	0.0345	0.0690	0.1724	0.2069
season	0.60	19	-	59.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	14.000	0.2542	0.3284	0.3729	0.2542	0.0169	0.0678	0.1186	0.2373

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2500
predicted_AVG	0.2241
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3118
predicted_R	0.4590
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.3441
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1700	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1050	3.2500	3.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2241	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4080	0.3824	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7280	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0710	0.0576	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3118	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.4590	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2800	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3441	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.7660	0.7474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	5.000	0.111	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.400	-0.036	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	2.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.083	-0.150
predicted_R	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	1.000	0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.566	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.536	0.400	0.464	0.600
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.566	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.918	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	0.012
predicted_H	1.056	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.291	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.713	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.741	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.566	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.918	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.181	0.003
predicted_H	1.093	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.126	0.000
predicted_HR	0.298	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.027
predicted_R	0.758	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.788	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.561	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.8095	0.3333	0.1429	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	0.2683	0.3333	0.5854	0.2683	0.0976	0.2195	0.0488	0.2683
season	0.60	36	-	140.000	40.000	8.000	9.000	24.000	23.000	6.000	30.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5357	0.2857	0.0643	0.1714	0.0429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9610
predicted_AVG	0.2838
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_OBP	0.3383
predicted_R	0.8230
predicted_RBI	0.7870
predicted_SLG	0.5663
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1920	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.9610	3.9179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2838	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1970	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1240	1.0557	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3070	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3383	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.8230	0.7128	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7870	0.7409	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5660	0.5663	0.5661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8750	0.8499	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	1.000	0.250	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.300	0.500
predicted_BB	0.682	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.682	3.000	-0.682	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.750	0.172	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.000	0.495	0.750
predicted_SO	0.523	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.682	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.244	-
predicted_SO	0.523	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.631	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.830	0.148
predicted_H	0.653	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.548	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.244	0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.841	0.012
predicted_H	0.676	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.031
predicted_R	0.583	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.245	0.001
predicted_SO	0.530	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	0.1538	0.5000	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769	0.6923	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	14.000	6.000	0.1562	0.4130	0.1875	0.1562	0.0000	0.0312	0.4375	0.1875
season	0.60	44	-	165.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	22.000	30.000	23.000	0.2000	0.3283	0.2545	0.2000	0.0061	0.0606	0.1818	0.1394

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4620
predicted_AVG	0.1902
predicted_BB	1.0410
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3698
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.2310
predicted_SLG	0.2440
predicted_SO	0.5590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1060	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.4620	3.6315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1902	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6820	1.0410	0.8297	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6580	0.6533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6160	0.5477	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2310	0.2304	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2440	0.2440	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5230	0.5590	0.5378	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Parker Messick (800048) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	3.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.556	2.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.333	4.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.756	6.200	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.444	7.000	-0.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	11.000	26.000	7.000	33.000	4.000	3.5357	1.1786	0.3929	0.9286	0.2500	1.1786	0.1429
last_10	0.35	9	53.200	14.000	39.000	14.000	58.000	5.000	2.3478	0.9876	0.2609	0.7267	0.2609	1.0808	0.0932
season	0.20	9	53.200	14.000	39.000	14.000	58.000	5.000	2.3478	0.9876	0.2609	0.7267	0.2609	1.0808	0.0932

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7160
predicted_ER	2.2280
predicted_ERA	3.4878
predicted_H	5.0740
predicted_HR	0.7250
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.1700
predicted_WHIP	1.1811

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7160	1.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2280	1.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4878	3.4878	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.0740	4.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7250	0.8627	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.1700	5.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1811	1.1811	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800048
playerID	800048
playerName	Parker Messick
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.010	1.000	0.990	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.476	2.000	-0.476	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	1.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	2.000	17.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	1.5938	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.200	7.000	19.000	5.000	31.000	1.000	2.9077	1.1077	0.3231	0.8769	0.2308	1.4308	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	3.1634
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2910
predicted_WHIP	1.0796

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2940	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3510	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1634	3.1634	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7850	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2910	1.1230	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0796	1.0796	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	0.100	-0.483	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.565	1.000	-1.565	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000	0.0000	0.8182	2.7273	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1250	0.6250	2.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	23	19.200	4.000	7.000	10.000	36.000	1.000	1.8305	0.8644	0.2034	0.3559	0.5085	1.8305	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_ER	0.1960
predicted_ERA	2.5322
predicted_H	0.4020
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0840
predicted_WHIP	1.0922

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3580	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1960	0.0809	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5322	2.5322	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4020	0.7532	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0840	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0922	1.0922	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.83
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	0.200	-0.567	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	3.5217	1.0435	0.3913	0.6522	0.3913	0.9130	0.2609
season	0.20	21	21.000	11.000	19.000	5.000	21.000	4.000	4.7143	1.1429	0.5238	0.9048	0.2381	1.0000	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	4.5188
predicted_H	0.6770
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7160
predicted_WHIP	1.3294

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3500	0.1468	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5188	4.5188	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6770	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0579	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7160	1.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3294	1.3294	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: DET

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.167	0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.333	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.333	0.094	0.000
predicted_R	0.214	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.262	0.000	1.071	1.333
predicted_SO	1.071	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	0.000	-1.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.072	0.001
predicted_AB	3.090	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.002
predicted_H	0.506	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.245	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.032	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.072	0.000
predicted_AB	3.090	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.004
predicted_H	0.485	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.024
predicted_R	0.227	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.273	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.047	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1429	0.2258	0.2500	0.1429	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.60	14	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.1667	0.2391	0.2619	0.1667	0.0952	0.0952	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0750
predicted_AB	3.2680
predicted_AVG	0.1829
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2508
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3077
predicted_SO	0.9530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1320	0.1393	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0750	0.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2680	3.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1829	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2790	0.2837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5980	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0340	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.3080	0.2454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3450	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3077	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9530	1.0315	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Jahmai Jones (663330) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 10

All-history rows before 20260519: 10

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.600	2.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.173	0.250
predicted_SO	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	1.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.757	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	0.034
predicted_H	0.541	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.742	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.231	-0.004
predicted_H	0.518	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.032
predicted_R	0.388	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.229	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.753	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.0909	0.2308	0.1818	0.0909	0.0000	0.0000	0.1818	0.3636
last_10	0.20	10	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.1154	0.0769	0.2692
season	0.60	10	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.1154	0.0769	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.1250
predicted_AVG	0.2040
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2826
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.3509
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2040	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6000	3.1250	2.7568	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2040	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.3150	0.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6370	0.5409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0810	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2826	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4630	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2890	0.2476	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3509	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.8390	0.7415	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663330
playerID	663330
playerName	Jahmai Jones
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2150

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.567	3.000	0.433	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.333	0.035	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	-0.367	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	1.333	-0.133	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.567	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.596	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	0.004
predicted_H	0.767	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.365	-0.006
predicted_H	0.735	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.158	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.014
predicted_R	0.358	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.433	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.610	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.1892	0.2857	0.4054	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.60	30	-	107.000	23.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	11.000	11.000	18.000	0.2150	0.2857	0.3832	0.2150	0.0280	0.1495	0.1028	0.1682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6410
predicted_AVG	0.2179
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.2919
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.4169
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2130	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5670	3.6410	3.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2179	0.2180	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.3770	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7930	0.7668	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2919	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.4180	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4800	0.4678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4169	0.4170	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6010	0.6004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.319	1.000	-0.319	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.617	2.000	0.383	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	1.000	-0.329	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.574	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.574	1.000	-0.574	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.191	2.000	-1.191	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_R	0.574	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.574	0.000	-0.574	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	1.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	1.500	-0.488	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.149	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.149	0.000	1.851	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.617	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.574	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.574	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.149	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.610	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	-0.033
predicted_H	1.160	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000
predicted_SO	1.127	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.331	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.533	-0.008
predicted_H	1.112	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.397	-0.033
predicted_R	0.484	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.424	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.443	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.144	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	16.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	0.4444	0.5238	0.5833	0.4444	0.0000	0.1389	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.60	47	-	170.000	56.000	15.000	4.000	24.000	27.000	27.000	54.000	0.3294	0.4242	0.4882	0.3294	0.0235	0.1412	0.1588	0.3176

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.3423
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.4303
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.4895
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3190	0.3490	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6170	3.6010	3.6104	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3423	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5740	0.4940	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2320	1.1602	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4303	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5740	0.4480	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4840	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4895	0.4892	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1490	1.0960	1.1272	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 25

All-history rows before 20260519: 25

System season_avg: 0.1460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1461

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	3.000	-0.560
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.146	0.000	-0.146
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	-0.520
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.191	0.000	-0.191
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	0.000	-0.280
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	-0.169
predicted_SO	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.520	1.000	0.480

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.520	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.587	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	0.002
predicted_H	0.577	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.199	-0.003
predicted_H	0.553	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.018
predicted_R	0.278	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.213	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.197	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.573	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.2105	0.1842	0.0790	0.0263	0.1842
season	0.60	25	-	89.000	13.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.1461	0.1915	0.1685	0.1461	0.0562	0.0562	0.1461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6310
predicted_AVG	0.1713
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.6220
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2173
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.2460
predicted_SLG	0.2222
predicted_SO	0.6360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0940	0.0853	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.6310	3.5869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1713	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2050	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6220	0.5773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2173	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.3340	0.3005	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2460	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5200	0.6360	0.5640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.146

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zack Short (670097) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 5

All-history rows before 20260519: 5

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.682	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.680	-0.070
predicted_H	0.330	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.285	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.166	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.118	-0.049
predicted_BB	0.670	-0.010
predicted_H	0.316	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.005
predicted_R	0.264	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.154	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.173	-0.097
predicted_SO	0.774	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.118 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	10.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	5	-	10.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3000	0.3000
season	0.60	5	-	10.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.2280
predicted_AVG	0.1665
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_H	0.5380
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2990
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.2700
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1050	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2280	2.6824	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1665	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.4710	0.6801	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.5380	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0710	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3880	0.2846	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.2750	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2700	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8010	0.7628	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	670097
playerID	670097
playerName	Zack Short
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2924

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.333	-0.292	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	1.000	-0.622	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.500	-0.398	-0.500
predicted_R	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.333	-0.421	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.779	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.602	-0.020
predicted_H	0.981	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.561	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.570	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.779	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.593	-0.009
predicted_H	0.940	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.017
predicted_R	0.520	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.224	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.002
predicted_SO	0.579	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	0.2571	0.4091	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.0000	0.2286	0.1429
season	0.60	45	-	171.000	50.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	28.000	28.000	25.000	0.2924	0.3980	0.4211	0.2924	0.0117	0.0936	0.1637	0.1462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.7480
predicted_AVG	0.2658
predicted_BB	0.5740
predicted_H	0.9960
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3683
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.3576
predicted_SO	0.5910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.1790	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0250	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7480	3.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.5740	0.6022	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9960	0.9807	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3683	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.4740	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2440	0.2416	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3576	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.5910	0.5704	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-SS
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	-1.444	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.026	0.333
predicted_R	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.311	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.486	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.499	-0.057
predicted_H	0.588	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.000
predicted_R	0.285	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	1.345	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.486	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.007
predicted_H	0.564	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.009
predicted_R	0.264	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.301	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.022
predicted_SO	1.365	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	0.1389	0.2195	0.2222	0.1389	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.4444
season	0.60	45	-	155.000	30.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	25.000	60.000	0.1935	0.3077	0.3677	0.1935	0.0387	0.1097	0.1613	0.3871

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5480
predicted_AVG	0.1772
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	0.6290
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.2737
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3122
predicted_SO	1.3620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2150	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5480	3.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1772	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4170	0.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6290	0.5882	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0870	0.0829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2737	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3110	0.2470	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3480	0.3255	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3122	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.3620	1.3448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 38

All-history rows before 20260519: 38

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	3.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	0.048
predicted_H	0.913	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.057	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.006
predicted_H	0.875	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.041
predicted_R	0.457	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.445	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.799	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.2432	0.3488	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.0541	0.1622	0.2432
season	0.60	38	-	144.000	36.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	18.000	13.000	30.000	0.2500	0.3292	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.1875	0.0903	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2554
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0570
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3455
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.4578
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1660	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.7110	3.7575	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.4610	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9480	0.9134	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0570	0.0570	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1940	0.1857	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3455	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.5220	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4950	0.4801	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4578	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.7840	0.7870	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_CLE@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Keider Montero (672456) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	2.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.250	4.000	0.750	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.250	4.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.337	4.200	-0.137	1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.875	2.000	1.125	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	12.000	22.000	8.000	16.000	5.000	3.8571	1.0714	0.4286	0.7857	0.2857	0.5714	0.1786
last_10	0.35	8	44.100	18.000	34.000	10.000	31.000	5.000	3.6541	0.9925	0.4060	0.7669	0.2256	0.6993	0.1128
season	0.20	8	44.100	18.000	34.000	10.000	31.000	5.000	3.6541	0.9925	0.4060	0.7669	0.2256	0.6993	0.1128

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7540
predicted_ER	2.4920
predicted_ERA	3.9576
predicted_H	4.7660
predicted_HR	0.8340
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.2070
predicted_WHIP	1.1505

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.7540	1.8801	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.4920	3.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9576	3.9576	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.7660	5.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.8340	1.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.2070	4.6134	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1505	1.1505	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	70
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	672456
playerID	672456
playerName	Keider Montero
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.364	1.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.309	1.100	-0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.727	1.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.3571	0.3571	1.0000	0.3571	1.2857	0.0714
season	0.20	11	15.100	5.000	15.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	2.9348	1.3696	0.3261	0.9783	0.3913	1.2391	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.5950
predicted_ERA	4.1916
predicted_H	1.2700
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2660
predicted_WHIP	1.4087

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5290	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5950	0.2304	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1916	4.1916	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2700	1.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2660	1.7158	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4087	1.4087	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 15

All-history rows before 20260519: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	1.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	14	12.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	2.1892	0.8919	0.2432	0.5676	0.3243	1.4595	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1931
predicted_H	0.7390
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1430
predicted_WHIP	1.0799

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3410	0.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3550	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1931	3.1931	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7390	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1430	1.6861	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0799	1.0799	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	1.238	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.5000	1.5000	0.1667	0.6667	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6857	0.6000	0.8571	0.1714
season	0.20	20	21.200	2.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	2.000	0.8308	1.2923	0.0923	0.6000	0.6923	0.6462	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.3630
predicted_ERA	2.9091
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8750
predicted_WHIP	1.3479

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6040	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3630	0.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9091	2.9091	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9100	1.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8750	0.9472	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3479	1.3479	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

20260519_HOU@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 6 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 5 - 6 MIN", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "HOU 5 - 6 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "HOU 2 - 8 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -3, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	HOU 5 - 6 MIN	MIN	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	HOU 2 - 8 MIN	MIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away HOU	3-7	0.300	2	4.70	-27	2L	cold	average
Home MIN	6-4	0.600	4.20	3.30	9	2W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away HOU	19-30	0.388	-54	-1.102	True
Home MIN	22-26	0.458	-3	-0.062	True
Signal	-	-	1.040	1.145	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	HOU @ MIN	3 - 6	MIN	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target HOU	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized HOU	33	9	2	0	2	1	9
Player finalized MIN	32	9	4	0	2	2	9
Player model fractional HOU	32.49	7.26	3.43	1.16	3.31	2.73	7.41
Player model fractional MIN	32.53	7.79	4.61	1.17	4.44	3.03	8.40
Simulation box HOU	35	8	2	1	2	4	10
Simulation box MIN	33	9	8	0	8	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away HOU	Starter	Jason Alexander	3	7	4	9	3	7.08	1.66	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.58	1.41	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.90	1.36	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	0	0	0	0	4.26	1.27	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	0	1	0	0	0	3.66	1.35	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Steven Okert	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.67	1.19	True
Home MIN	Starter	Zebby Matthews	5	0	6	4	3	3.52	1.22	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.45	1.35	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	1	1	0	1	0	9.18	2.02	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1	0	1	0	0	2.88	1.26	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Luis García	0.10	0	0	2	0	5.26	1.44	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Andrew Morris	0.10	1	1	1	1	3.70	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: HOU

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2686

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.646	5.000	1.354	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.400	-0.269	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.354	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.354	0.000	-0.354	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.979	2.000	-0.979	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.400	-0.342	-0.400
predicted_R	0.562	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.646	1.000	-0.646	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.400	-0.514	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.792	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.792	0.000	1.208	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.646	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.354	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.792	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.004
predicted_H	0.789	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.004
predicted_H	0.773	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.194	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.031
predicted_R	0.507	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.501	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.427	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.813	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.3529	0.1471	0.0588	0.1177	0.0882	0.2647
season	0.60	48	-	175.000	47.000	10.000	11.000	31.000	27.000	17.000	38.000	0.2686	0.3418	0.5143	0.2686	0.0629	0.1771	0.0971	0.2171

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5460
predicted_AVG	0.2302
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.3142
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.4465
predicted_SO	0.8230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.1460	0.1825	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6460	3.5460	3.6049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2302	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3540	0.3450	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8160	0.7889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2060	0.1966	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3142	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.4770	0.5270	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5350	0.5203	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4465	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7920	0.8230	0.8047	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	4.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.144	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_R	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	-0.045	0.333
predicted_SO	1.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	1.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.439	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.038	0.038
predicted_H	0.697	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.221	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	-0.083

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.037	-0.000
predicted_H	0.683	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.135	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.207	-0.049
predicted_R	0.213	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.355	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.386	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	14.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.0909	0.4242
season	0.60	11	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	16.000	0.1892	0.2105	0.3784	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.4324

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2150
predicted_BB	0.1180
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2562
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3767
predicted_SO	1.1960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1210	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.5980	3.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2150	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1180	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7740	0.6966	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.3040	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4080	0.3686	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3767	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4550	1.1960	1.3719	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jeremy Peña (665161) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 11

All-history rows before 20260519: 11

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.182	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.182	3.000	-1.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.094	0.333
predicted_BB	0.273	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.200	0.306	0.400
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	1.000	1.909	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	1.007	1.333
predicted_SO	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.114	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.001
predicted_H	0.923	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.259	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.582	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.003
predicted_H	0.905	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.049	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.020
predicted_R	0.430	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.249	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.005
predicted_SO	0.588	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 4.182

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2273	0.1579	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2195	0.2826	0.3171	0.2195	0.0244	0.0732	0.1463
season	0.60	11	-	46.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2391	0.2941	0.3261	0.2391	0.0217	0.0652	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.2283
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2884
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.3297
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.2500	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1820	3.9830	4.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2283	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2710	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9090	0.9228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0480	0.0493	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2884	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4300	0.4465	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2560	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3297	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.6530	0.5819	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665161
playerID	665161
playerName	Jeremy Peña
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	4.000	0.231
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.286
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	-1.077
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.286
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	-0.449
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.776	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.036	0.036
predicted_H	0.884	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.314	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.705	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.036	-0.000
predicted_H	0.867	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.047
predicted_R	0.302	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.420	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.712	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2895	0.2895	0.4211	0.2895	0.0263	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.60	13	-	49.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4490	0.2857	0.0408	0.1225	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2611
predicted_BB	0.1070
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.2843
predicted_R	0.3260
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.4089
predicted_SO	0.7300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2010	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.7890	3.7758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2611	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1070	0.0363	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9890	0.8839	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1160	0.1054	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2843	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3260	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4880	0.4364	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4089	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.7300	0.7049	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 49

All-history rows before 20260519: 49

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.612	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.612	3.000	0.388	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.333	-0.316	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.633	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	2.000	-0.633	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.427	0.600	-0.227	-0.400
predicted_R	0.612	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.612	0.000	-0.612	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.633	0.000	-0.633	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.627	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.633	0.333	-0.633	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.694	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.612	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.432	-
predicted_R	0.612	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.627	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.547	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000
predicted_BB	0.653	0.020
predicted_H	1.085	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.282	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.432	-0.000
predicted_R	0.583	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.484	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.627	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.547	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.647	-0.007
predicted_H	1.064	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.279	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.408	-0.024
predicted_R	0.561	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.466	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.598	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.750	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 49

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.4000	0.5263	0.8667	0.4000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	13.000	0.2812	0.4390	0.5312	0.2812	0.0625	0.0625	0.2812	0.4062
season	0.60	49	-	177.000	56.000	11.000	15.000	31.000	30.000	31.000	34.000	0.3164	0.4272	0.6328	0.3164	0.0848	0.1751	0.1751	0.1921

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4560
predicted_AVG	0.3160
predicted_BB	0.6820
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2860
predicted_OBP	0.4316
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.4900
predicted_SLG	0.6268
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2240	0.2120	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6120	3.4560	3.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.6820	0.6533	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0920	1.0850	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2860	0.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4320	0.4316	0.4318	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6120	0.5410	0.5826	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4900	0.4841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6270	0.6268	0.6269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.8120	0.7428	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	49
Season rows before report date	49
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	49
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jake Meyers (676694) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 10

All-history rows before 20260519: 10

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2432

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.257	0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.174	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.122	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.704	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.016
predicted_H	0.880	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.103	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.004
predicted_H	0.863	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.024
predicted_R	0.471	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.795	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3636	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2432	0.3256	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.2162
season	0.60	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2432	0.3256	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7120
predicted_AVG	0.2538
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HBP	0.1030
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3284
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.4215
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1930	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7120	3.7040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3530	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9420	0.8803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1030	0.1030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1390	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3284	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4670	0.4891	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4300	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4215	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.7600	0.7868	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260407_HOU@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	676694
playerID	676694
playerName	Jake Meyers
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.400	0.053	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.250	-0.127	0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.700	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.010
predicted_H	0.822	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.376	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.004
predicted_H	0.805	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.028
predicted_R	0.362	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.347	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.007
predicted_SO	0.755	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.3077	0.2051	0.0256	0.0769	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.60	42	-	154.000	39.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	17.000	16.000	30.000	0.2532	0.3466	0.3766	0.2532	0.0260	0.1169	0.1039	0.1948

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.2274
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.3573
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1300	0.1519	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7490	3.7004	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2274	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.3570	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8530	0.8216	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1180	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3330	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3760	0.3606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3573	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7970	0.7478	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.269	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.214	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	0.077	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.349	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.747	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.262	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.349	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.003
predicted_H	0.732	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.021
predicted_R	0.252	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.236	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.990	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	8	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.60	8	-	26.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4231	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5800
predicted_AVG	0.2391
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2934
predicted_R	0.2890
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.3702
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2020	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.5800	3.3486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2391	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2510	0.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8560	0.7466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2934	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2890	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2810	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3702	0.3701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9320	0.9797	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.261	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.261	2.000	0.739	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.500	-0.017	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	2.000	-0.391	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	1.000	0.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.750	-0.095	-0.500
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.500	-0.190	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.609	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	0.000	1.391	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.261	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.252	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.399	0.008
predicted_H	0.585	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.343	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.618	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.252	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.004
predicted_H	0.574	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.036
predicted_R	0.330	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.352	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.625	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.0769	0.2500	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308	0.1538
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.1071	0.2188	0.2143	0.1071	0.0357	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143
season	0.60	23	-	75.000	20.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	8.000	9.000	14.000	0.2667	0.3452	0.4400	0.2667	0.0400	0.1733	0.1200	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2380
predicted_AVG	0.2093
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3020
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3417
predicted_SO	0.6340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1170	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2610	3.2380	3.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2093	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.4130	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6780	0.5852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1020	0.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.3340	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4250	0.3654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3417	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.6340	0.6183	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jason Alexander (669920) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.500	2.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_ER	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_H	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_H	5.500	9.000	3.500	0.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.050	4.100	-0.050	-1.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	5.000	1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	6.100	10.000	11.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	14.2105	2.5263	1.5790	1.7368	0.7895	0.9474	0.3158
last_10	0.35	2	6.100	10.000	11.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	14.2105	2.5263	1.5790	1.7368	0.7895	0.9474	0.3158
season	0.20	2	6.100	10.000	11.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	14.2105	2.5263	1.5790	1.7368	0.7895	0.9474	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0070
predicted_ER	3.1820
predicted_ERA	7.0755
predicted_H	4.7230
predicted_HR	0.7420
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.8450
predicted_WHIP	1.6628

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0070	2.6542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	7.0000	3.1820	5.6705	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0755	7.0755	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	4.7230	7.5107	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7420	0.2584	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.8450	2.6424	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6628	1.6628	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	9
R	7
ER	7
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	14.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669920
playerID	669920
playerName	Jason Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.158	0.000	-1.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.411	2.000	-0.311	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	1.000	-0.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.6000	1.0500	0.4500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	4.000	7.000	12.000	11.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2955	0.2727	0.4773	0.8182	0.7500	0.0682
season	0.20	19	28.200	15.000	22.000	20.000	23.000	4.000	4.7093	1.4651	0.5233	0.7674	0.6977	0.8023	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8970
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	3.5803
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0650
predicted_WHIP	1.4086

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8970	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5450	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5803	3.5803	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0320	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0650	1.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4086	1.4086	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.71
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.012	0.200	0.088	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	2.8421	1.4211	0.3158	0.7895	0.6316	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	4.5000	1.4167	0.5000	0.9167	0.5000	0.4167
season	0.20	17	20.000	7.000	18.000	9.000	16.000	3.1500	1.3500	0.3500	0.9000	0.4500	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_ER	0.5770
predicted_ERA	3.8954
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0130
predicted_WHIP	1.3563

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6050	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5770	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8954	3.8954	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2030	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0130	1.0054	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3563	1.3563	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.059	3.000	-1.059	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	0.100	0.071	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	13.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	1.3000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.200	9.000	18.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.5849	1.2453	0.5094	1.0189	0.2264	0.9057	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_ER	0.4730
predicted_ERA	4.2560
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	1.2668

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2840	0.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4730	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2560	4.2560	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9820	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9620	0.3863	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2668	1.2668	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 16

All-history rows before 20260519: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.100	-0.850	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.5294	0.5294	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.7273	0.7273	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	16	15.000	13.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	4.000	7.8000	2.1333	0.8667	0.9333	1.2000	1.4000	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.2360
predicted_ERA	3.6562
predicted_H	0.4900
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5770
predicted_WHIP	1.3527

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2360	0.7058	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6562	3.6562	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4900	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0660	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5770	1.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3527	1.3527	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.682	0.000	-0.682	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.718	1.000	0.382	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	9.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	4.1538	1.2692	0.4615	1.0385	0.2308	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	22	20.000	8.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	2.000	3.6000	1.1000	0.4000	0.7500	0.3500	0.8000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	3.6742
predicted_H	0.5470
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6060
predicted_WHIP	1.1877

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1990	0.0825	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6742	3.6742	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5470	0.2267	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6060	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1877	1.1877	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: MIN

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1881

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	1.000	-0.367	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.633	0.000	-0.633	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	-0.043	-0.250
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	1.233	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.385	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.021
predicted_H	0.554	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.238	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.818	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.316	0.004
predicted_H	0.578	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.032
predicted_R	0.215	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.213	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.807	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	0.0909	0.2051	0.0909	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909	0.0606	0.3636
season	0.60	30	-	101.000	19.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	6.000	10.000	23.000	0.1881	0.2927	0.2277	0.1881	0.0099	0.1386	0.0990	0.2277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4140
predicted_AVG	0.1733
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.2380
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2742
predicted_R	0.2010
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.2222
predicted_SO	0.8960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0330	0.0480	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.4140	3.3855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1733	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2800	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5920	0.5543	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2380	0.2380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2010	0.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4300	0.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.8960	0.8177	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	2
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 31

All-history rows before 20260519: 31

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	3.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_BB	0.387	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.387	1.000	0.613	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	0.000	0.129	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.148	0.250
predicted_R	0.516	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.516	1.000	0.484	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.000	-0.120	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.323	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.387	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.362	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.504	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.038
predicted_H	0.948	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.151	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.519	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000
predicted_SO	0.952	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.362	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.504	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.353	0.005
predicted_H	0.989	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.151	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.017
predicted_R	0.557	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.498	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.939	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.7778	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.3333	0.3889	0.6061	0.3333	0.0303	0.0909	0.0303	0.2424
season	0.60	31	-	108.000	27.000	10.000	4.000	12.000	16.000	12.000	31.000	0.2500	0.3520	0.4537	0.2500	0.0370	0.1111	0.1111	0.2870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5340
predicted_AVG	0.2847
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.1510
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3647
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.5194
predicted_SO	0.8770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3230	0.4210	0.3616	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.5340	3.5037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3870	0.2900	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0060	0.9478	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1510	0.1510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3647	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.5230	0.5188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4220	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5194	0.5192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8770	0.9516	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 32

All-history rows before 20260519: 32

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3036

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.000	0.030	0.333
predicted_BB	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	-0.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.000	0.077	0.500
predicted_R	0.438	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.000	-0.051	0.333
predicted_SO	0.594	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.656	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.594	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.561	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.593	-0.063
predicted_H	0.892	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.102	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.607	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.600	0.008
predicted_H	0.931	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.102	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.002
predicted_R	0.469	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.599	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.1000	0.0750	0.1250
season	0.60	32	-	112.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	14.000	21.000	19.000	0.3036	0.4234	0.3839	0.3036	0.0089	0.0893	0.1875	0.1696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2658
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_H	0.9710
predicted_HBP	0.1020
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3660
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.3540
predicted_SO	0.6270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2060	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6530	3.5608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6560	0.4970	0.5928	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9710	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1020	0.1020	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3660	0.3660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4360	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4020	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3540	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5940	0.6270	0.6071	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	3.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	0.283	0.167
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.333	0.243	0.167
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	2.300	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.333	0.138	0.167
predicted_SO	1.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.300	1.000	-0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.492	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	0.018
predicted_H	0.663	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.492	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.171	0.002
predicted_H	0.692	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.024
predicted_R	0.373	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.241	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3056	0.2222	0.0278	0.0833	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.60	20	-	69.000	15.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	7.000	3.000	26.000	0.2174	0.2568	0.3623	0.2174	0.0435	0.2029	0.0435	0.3768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5660
predicted_AVG	0.2116
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.2589
predicted_R	0.3440
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.3292
predicted_SO	1.1820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0710	0.0577	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.5660	3.4924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2116	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.2000	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7550	0.6630	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1130	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2589	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3440	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5090	0.4462	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3000	1.1820	1.2569	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.333	0.025	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.333	0.006	-0.083
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.333	-0.100	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.080	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.384	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.114	0.031
predicted_H	0.717	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	1.256	-0.077

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	3.384	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.116	0.002
predicted_H	0.748	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.044
predicted_R	0.471	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.240	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.5333	0.3333	0.2000	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.2941	0.4242	0.2727	0.0909	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.60	12	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	16.000	0.2250	0.2439	0.3500	0.2250	0.0750	0.0250	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2250
predicted_3B	0.0750
predicted_AB	3.4890
predicted_AVG	0.2512
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2908
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.3992
predicted_SO	1.0970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2250	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0750	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4890	3.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2512	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.1790	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8760	0.7170	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2908	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4830	0.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3920	0.3233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3992	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.0970	1.2560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2604

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.225	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.225	4.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.500	-0.010	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.600	0.081	-0.200
predicted_R	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	2.000	1.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.580	2.000	-0.330	-1.750
predicted_SO	1.175	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.175	1.000	0.825	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.225	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.825	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.662	-
predicted_SO	1.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.018
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.197	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	0.022
predicted_H	1.148	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.443	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.850	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.728	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.662	0.000
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	4.197	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.006
predicted_BB	0.351	0.005
predicted_H	1.198	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.462	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.002
predicted_R	0.912	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.781	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.672	0.010
predicted_SO	1.137	-0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.109

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.225

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0476	0.3810	0.1905	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	10.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	0.2619	0.3261	0.7381	0.2619	0.1429	0.2381	0.0952	0.2619
season	0.60	40	-	169.000	44.000	7.000	1.000	15.000	23.000	33.000	13.000	47.000	0.2604	0.3189	0.5799	0.2604	0.0888	0.1361	0.0769	0.2781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	4.1570
predicted_AVG	0.2792
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_H	1.1600
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.4480
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.8860
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.6620
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2190	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2250	4.1570	4.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.3780	0.3467	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1600	1.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4400	0.4480	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8250	0.8860	0.8500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7390	0.7278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6620	0.6620	0.6620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1750	1.1190	1.1521	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2772

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	3.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.223	0.167
predicted_BB	0.633	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.633	1.000	-0.633	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	1.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.500	0.103	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.333	0.084	0.167
predicted_SO	0.733	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.633	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.399	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.588	-0.045
predicted_H	0.885	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.074	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.399	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.004
predicted_BB	0.596	0.008
predicted_H	0.923	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.074	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.007
predicted_R	0.647	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.388	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.018
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.1081	0.0811	0.2162
season	0.60	30	-	101.000	28.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	18.000	19.000	22.000	0.2772	0.3967	0.4158	0.2772	0.0198	0.1188	0.1881	0.2178

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.4480
predicted_AVG	0.2679
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0740
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3736
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.4184
predicted_SO	0.8180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1610	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0190	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.4480	3.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2679	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6330	0.5180	0.5879	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9240	0.8851	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0740	0.0740	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1070	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3736	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6060	0.6024	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3790	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4184	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.8180	0.7663	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	4.000	0.186	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.750	-0.220	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	3.000	-0.837	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	2.000	-0.116	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.750	-0.283	-0.750
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	2.000	-0.535	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.628	4.000	-0.628	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.354	2.250	-0.354	-2.250
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.846	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.046
predicted_H	0.879	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.065	0.065

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.002
predicted_BB	0.283	0.004
predicted_H	0.917	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.174	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.013
predicted_R	0.538	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.833	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.422	-0.007
predicted_SO	1.052	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.4000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	17.000	0.2195	0.2195	0.4146	0.2195	0.0488	0.2195	0.0000	0.4146
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	36.000	7.000	5.000	27.000	23.000	14.000	43.000	0.2195	0.2833	0.3537	0.2195	0.0305	0.1646	0.0854	0.2622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.2368
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_OBP	0.2784
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.8130
predicted_SLG	0.4296
predicted_SO	1.1600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.2110	0.1826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.8930	3.8462	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2368	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2120	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9220	0.8794	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1780	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2784	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.4520	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8130	0.7757	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4296	0.4298	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1600	1.0653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2437

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.721	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.721	3.000	0.279	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.006	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.907	1.000	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.333	-0.047	-0.083
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.333	-0.125	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.721	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.674	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.758	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	-0.019
predicted_H	0.775	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.400	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.240	0.003
predicted_H	0.809	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.003
predicted_R	0.429	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.627	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1795	0.2195	0.2051	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.60	43	-	160.000	39.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	29.000	0.2437	0.2965	0.3750	0.2437	0.0312	0.1375	0.0688	0.1812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.2169
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2597
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.3194
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1490	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7210	3.8110	3.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2169	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.2090	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8270	0.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0737	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2597	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.3380	0.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3550	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3194	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6740	0.5790	0.6354	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Zebby Matthews (805673) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	7.000	7.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	5.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.7143	0.5714	0.1429	0.7143
last_10	0.35	1	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.7143	0.5714	0.1429	0.7143
season	0.20	1	7.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.7143	0.5714	0.1429	0.7143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9030
predicted_ER	2.1930
predicted_ERA	3.5180
predicted_H	4.9250
predicted_HR	0.6090
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.1150
predicted_WHIP	1.2168

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9030	2.6732	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1930	0.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5180	3.5180	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.9250	4.2756	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6090	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.1150	5.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2168	1.2168	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	6
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805673
playerID	805673
playerName	Zebby Matthews
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.016	1.100	0.084	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	1.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	1.3500	1.3500	0.1500	0.7500	0.6000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	5.000	10.000	8.000	10.000	3.5526	1.4211	0.3947	0.7895	0.6316	0.7895
season	0.20	19	22.100	9.000	19.000	12.000	18.000	3.6269	1.3881	0.4030	0.8508	0.5373	0.8060

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_ER	0.5110
predicted_ERA	3.4489
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0730
predicted_WHIP	1.3480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6420	0.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5110	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4489	3.4489	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1550	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0730	1.6051	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3480	1.3480	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.708	3.000	0.292	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.125	3.000	-0.125	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.629	0.200	0.371	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	11.000	12.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	21.2143	3.6429	2.3571	2.5714	1.0714	0.6429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	12.000	15.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	12.4615	2.5385	1.3846	1.7308	0.8077	0.9231	0.3462
season	0.20	24	20.000	17.000	27.000	11.000	15.000	4.000	7.6500	1.9000	0.8500	1.3500	0.5500	0.7500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5800
predicted_ER	0.9900
predicted_ERA	9.1827
predicted_H	1.3810
predicted_HR	0.2220
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8420
predicted_WHIP	2.0208

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5800	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9900	0.9959	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.1827	9.1827	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3810	1.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2220	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8420	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0208	2.0208	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.05
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.735	0.200	0.265	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562
season	0.20	19	18.200	5.000	21.000	5.000	14.000	2.4107	1.3929	0.2679	1.1250	0.2679	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_ER	0.3200
predicted_ERA	2.8822
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.2623

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2680	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3200	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8822	2.8822	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9940	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9434	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2623	1.2623	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	-0.811	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.3529	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	9.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	8.1000	1.7000	0.9000	1.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	15.000	11.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	6.6000	1.6667	0.7333	1.3333	0.3333	0.4000	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	5.2632
predicted_H	0.6200
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4220
predicted_WHIP	1.4388

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3400	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2632	5.2632	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6200	1.4686	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4220	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4388	1.4388	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.433	1.000	-1.333	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.200	6.000	15.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.4468	1.2128	0.3830	0.9575	0.2553	0.7660	0.0638
season	0.20	12	20.000	10.000	24.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2000	0.3000	0.8000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.6995
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6410
predicted_WHIP	1.3307

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2920	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3250	0.7203	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6995	3.6995	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7600	0.9006	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0690	0.6142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6410	1.4369	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3307	1.3307	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_HOU@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260519_LAD@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 5 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 5 SD", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 5 SD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 SD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 6 - 5 SD	LAD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 6 - 3 SD	LAD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	6-4	0.600	5.20	3.50	17	5W	hot	average
Home SD	6-4	0.600	3.30	3.30	0	3W	cold	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	29-18	0.617	94	2	True
Home SD	28-18	0.609	7	0.152	True
Signal	-	-	-1.848	-1.860	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target SD	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	35	9	7	0	6	4	9
Player finalized SD	33	9	0	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional LAD	33.25	7.89	5.51	1.25	4.71	4.03	7.70
Player model fractional SD	32.47	6.73	3.65	0.91	3.41	2.67	7.94
Simulation box LAD	35	8	6	3	6	3	6
Simulation box SD	34	7	3	1	3	3	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Emmet Sheehan	5.10	2	7	5	0	3.93	1.22	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	1	0	0	0	1	2.83	1.15	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1.20	0	1	0	2	2.84	0.94	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	1	1	1	2	0	4.89	1.36	True
Home SD	Starter	Griffin Canning	3.10	5	3	6	3	6.63	1.64	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	2	0	0	0	0	2.81	1.20	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1	0	2	0	0	3.32	1.18	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1.10	0	0	1	0	2.61	1.29	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1.10	1	1	1	0	3.74	1.10	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2651

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.532	3.000	0.468	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.667	-0.265	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.681	1.000	0.319	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	1.000	-0.021	-1.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.936	2.000	-0.936	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.750	-0.192	-0.550
predicted_R	0.698	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	0.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.667	-0.458	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.116	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.021	0.000	-0.021	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.744	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.698	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.532	-
predicted_SO	1.116	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.019
predicted_3B	0.040	0.017
predicted_AB	3.884	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.727	-0.017
predicted_H	1.146	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.000
predicted_R	0.708	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.741	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.532	0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.736	0.009
predicted_H	1.163	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.012
predicted_R	0.727	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.043
predicted_SO	1.086	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.5000	0.6000	0.8500	0.5000	0.0500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	12.000	0.3415	0.4255	0.5366	0.3415	0.0244	0.2439	0.1463	0.2927
season	0.60	43	-	166.000	44.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	24.000	30.000	32.000	48.000	0.2651	0.3922	0.4578	0.2651	0.0422	0.1446	0.1928	0.2892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0650
predicted_AB	3.9190
predicted_AVG	0.3167
predicted_BB	0.7030
predicted_H	1.2410
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.4231
predicted_R	0.7230
predicted_RBI	0.7990
predicted_SLG	0.5320
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2540	0.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0650	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.9190	3.8843	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7440	0.7030	0.7271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.2410	1.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1530	0.1395	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4231	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6980	0.7230	0.7083	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7990	0.7408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5320	0.5320	0.5320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1160	1.0760	1.0995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2614

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.477	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.477	4.000	-0.477	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.072	0.333
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.138	0.500
predicted_R	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.000	-0.196	0.333
predicted_SO	1.045	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.045	3.000	-0.045	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.477	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.795	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.045	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.506	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	-0.007
predicted_H	0.755	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.230	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.849	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.431	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	1.077	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.506	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.545	0.006
predicted_H	0.767	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.236	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.004
predicted_R	0.871	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.064	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	0.1714	0.2564	0.4286	0.1714	0.0857	0.1714	0.1143	0.3714
season	0.60	44	-	153.000	40.000	5.000	12.000	19.000	35.000	24.000	46.000	0.2614	0.3616	0.5294	0.2614	0.0784	0.1242	0.1569	0.3006

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2273
predicted_BB	0.5280
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.3280
predicted_R	0.9270
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4593
predicted_SO	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0840	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4770	3.5490	3.5063	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2273	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.5280	0.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8070	0.7555	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2450	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7950	0.9270	0.8488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4620	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4593	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0450	1.1240	1.0772	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.154	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.154	4.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.015	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.250	-0.041	-0.050
predicted_R	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.250	0.374	0.550
predicted_SO	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.121	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.004
predicted_H	0.826	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.251	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.659	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.575	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.238	0.003
predicted_H	0.838	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.257	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.012
predicted_R	0.677	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.559	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.008
predicted_SO	0.568	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 4.154

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.4762	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.1860	0.2222	0.4186	0.1860	0.0698	0.1163	0.0465	0.1395
season	0.60	13	-	54.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	0.1852	0.2414	0.4259	0.1852	0.0741	0.1667	0.0556	0.1296

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.0590
predicted_AVG	0.2061
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_OBP	0.2588
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.4214
predicted_SO	0.6440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1080	0.0879	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1540	4.0590	4.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2061	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2420	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8370	0.8260	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2520	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2588	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.5990	0.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5540	0.5449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4214	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.6440	0.5751	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	3.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.578	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.578	1.000	-0.578	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	0.000	-0.956	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.250	-0.355	-0.250
predicted_R	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	0.000	-0.711	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.844	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	1.000	-0.844	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.578	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.689	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.563	-0.015
predicted_H	0.902	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.699	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.570	0.007
predicted_H	0.916	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.007
predicted_R	0.717	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.800	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.2333	0.2000
season	0.60	45	-	168.000	43.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	32.000	26.000	38.000	0.2560	0.3553	0.4048	0.2560	0.0238	0.1310	0.1548	0.2262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2576
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3563
predicted_R	0.6810
predicted_RBI	0.4900
predicted_SLG	0.4114
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.3730	0.3236	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.6270	3.6894	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2576	0.2578	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5780	0.5410	0.5628	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9340	0.9022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3563	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.6810	0.6987	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4900	0.4723	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4114	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.7600	0.8094	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2628

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	0.837	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.628	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.628	3.000	0.372	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.237	0.500
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.953	0.000	1.047	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.163	0.500
predicted_R	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	0.000	0.465	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.535	0.000	0.465	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	0.346	0.750
predicted_SO	1.116	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.116	0.000	0.884	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.628	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	1.116	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.641	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.022
predicted_H	0.976	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.097	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.555	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.553	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	1.057	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.354	0.004
predicted_H	0.990	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.097	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.031
predicted_R	0.570	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.424	-0.042
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.3714	0.4500	0.5429	0.3714	0.0286	0.1714	0.0857	0.2286
season	0.60	43	-	156.000	41.000	7.000	5.000	23.000	23.000	16.000	48.000	0.2628	0.3371	0.4038	0.2628	0.0321	0.1474	0.1026	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6610
predicted_AVG	0.2967
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0970
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_OBP	0.3673
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.4653
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.2290	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6280	3.6610	3.6414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2967	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3180	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0860	0.9757	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0970	0.0970	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1280	0.1173	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3673	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.5850	0.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6150	0.5528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4653	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1160	0.9710	1.0570	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3011

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	0.830	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.745	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.745	4.000	0.255	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.250	0.199	0.250
predicted_BB	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	1.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.213	0.000	0.787	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.148	0.250
predicted_R	0.574	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.574	0.000	0.426	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.872	0.000	2.128	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.443	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.517	0.250	0.983	1.250
predicted_SO	0.809	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.809	1.000	-0.809	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.745	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.277	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.574	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.443	-
predicted_SO	0.809	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.763	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	0.018
predicted_H	0.912	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.000
predicted_R	0.580	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.807	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.298	0.004
predicted_H	0.925	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.191	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.020
predicted_R	0.595	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.829	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.1892	0.2857	0.3514	0.1892	0.0541	0.2162	0.1081	0.1892
season	0.60	47	-	176.000	53.000	8.000	10.000	41.000	27.000	13.000	38.000	0.3011	0.3523	0.5170	0.3011	0.0568	0.2329	0.0739	0.2159

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2566
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3207
predicted_R	0.5880
predicted_RBI	0.8610
predicted_SLG	0.4432
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1140	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7450	3.7890	3.7631	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2566	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2770	0.3200	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9720	0.9119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1960	0.1866	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3207	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5740	0.5880	0.5797	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.8610	0.8074	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4430	0.4432	0.4431	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8090	0.7940	0.8028	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2543

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	2.000	-0.844	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	2.000	0.533	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	0.000	-0.978	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.500	-0.088	-0.250
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	-0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.622	2.000	-0.622	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.622	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.771	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.525	0.058
predicted_H	0.733	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.686	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.532	0.006
predicted_H	0.744	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.023
predicted_R	0.399	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.010
predicted_SO	0.677	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.0588	0.2727	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	0.1515	0.3171	0.2727	0.1515	0.0303	0.0303	0.2424	0.2121
season	0.60	45	-	173.000	44.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	17.000	21.000	28.000	0.2543	0.3385	0.3988	0.2543	0.0231	0.1156	0.1214	0.1618

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2013
predicted_BB	0.6090
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3190
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.3176
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1640	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.6670	3.7713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2013	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.6090	0.5254	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7380	0.7333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3190	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.4030	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3010	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3176	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6220	0.7770	0.6857	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 31

All-history rows before 20260519: 31

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.032	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.032	2.000	0.968	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.277	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	1.000	-0.355	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	1.000	-0.839	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.667	-0.349	-0.667
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.500	-0.351	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.032	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.001
predicted_AB	3.106	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	0.014
predicted_H	0.722	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.848	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.106	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.374	0.004
predicted_H	0.732	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.029
predicted_R	0.448	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.2188	0.3056	0.2812	0.2188	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.3750
season	0.60	31	-	94.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	11.000	25.000	0.2766	0.3491	0.3511	0.2766	0.0106	0.1064	0.1170	0.2660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.2230
predicted_AVG	0.2693
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3475
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3473
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0660	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0340	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0320	3.2230	3.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2693	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3920	0.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8680	0.7217	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3475	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4640	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3480	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3473	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.9160	0.8484	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	4.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.246	0.500
predicted_BB	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	0.180	0.500
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	0.000	0.441	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.881	1.250
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	2.000	0.206	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.766	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.004
predicted_H	0.801	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.383	0.005
predicted_H	0.813	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.015
predicted_R	0.505	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2857	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2683	0.2647	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.60	34	-	130.000	33.000	3.000	4.000	19.000	16.000	13.000	27.000	0.2538	0.3197	0.3692	0.2539	0.0308	0.1462	0.1000	0.2077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.2265
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3537
predicted_SO	0.8980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0720	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.6790	3.7659	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2265	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.3730	0.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8330	0.8012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1300	0.1240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5230	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4720	0.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3537	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.8980	0.8356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Emmet Sheehan (686218) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 8

All-history rows before 20260519: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	2.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.975	6.000	0.125	-0.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	6.125	6.000	0.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	10.000	24.000	6.000	35.000	3.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.9000	0.2250	1.3125	0.1125
last_10	0.35	8	41.200	21.000	40.000	12.000	49.000	7.000	4.5360	1.2480	0.5040	0.9600	0.2880	1.1760	0.1680
season	0.20	8	41.200	21.000	40.000	12.000	49.000	7.000	4.5360	1.2480	0.5040	0.9600	0.2880	1.1760	0.1680

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5800
predicted_ER	2.3280
predicted_ERA	3.9280
predicted_H	4.9430
predicted_HR	0.6950
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	6.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.2231

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.5800	0.7703	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3280	2.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9280	3.9280	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.9430	4.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6950	0.8513	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	6.1160	6.5690	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2231	1.2231	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	7
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.54
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686218
playerID	686218
playerName	Emmet Sheehan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	0.000	-1.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.0000	0.7000	0.0000	0.5000	0.2000	1.1000
season	0.20	13	13.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	0.6923	0.6923	0.0769	0.5385	0.1538	1.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_ER	0.3150
predicted_ERA	2.8326
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9950
predicted_WHIP	1.1527

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3150	0.7457	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3150	0.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8326	2.8326	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8380	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9950	0.3694	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1527	1.1527	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	1.900	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.330	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	1.4727	0.6000	0.1636	0.4909	0.1091	0.9818	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.3160
predicted_ERA	2.8428
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9750
predicted_WHIP	0.9426

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2590	1.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3160	0.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8428	2.8428	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6840	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9750	0.9899	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9426	0.9426	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.735	1.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	2.000	-0.150	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.0909	0.5454	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	5.8696	1.4348	0.6522	0.7826	0.6522	1.6957
season	0.20	20	16.100	5.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	2.7551	0.9796	0.3061	0.4898	0.4898	1.4082

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.3620
predicted_ERA	4.8889
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8390
predicted_WHIP	1.3634

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3030	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3620	0.7489	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8889	4.8889	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6060	1.4513	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0530	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8390	0.9366	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3634	1.3634	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: SD

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.450	4.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.750	0.043	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.750	0.181	-0.250
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	3.000	-0.600	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.522	0.750	-0.188	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.470	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.003
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.493	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.113	0.013
predicted_H	0.878	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.434	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.563	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.000
predicted_SO	0.624	0.074

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.493	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.112	-0.001
predicted_H	0.849	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.045
predicted_R	0.411	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.534	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.628	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.3056	0.3243	0.4722	0.3056	0.0278	0.2500	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.60	20	-	69.000	20.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	9.000	2.000	11.000	0.2899	0.3194	0.5217	0.2899	0.0580	0.1739	0.0290	0.1594

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.2793
predicted_BB	0.1360
predicted_H	0.9960
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3124
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.6380
predicted_SLG	0.4705
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1080	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0400	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.5670	3.4926	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2793	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1360	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9960	0.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1650	0.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3124	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4050	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6380	0.5629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4700	0.4705	0.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.7520	0.6235	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.822	4.000	1.178	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.250	-0.233	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	0.000	-0.422	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.250	-0.308	-0.250
predicted_R	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.250	-0.273	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.067	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.822	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.356	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.839	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.016
predicted_H	0.744	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.059	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.003
predicted_H	0.720	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.005
predicted_R	0.324	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.243	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.237	-0.002
predicted_SO	1.066	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.822

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.0952	0.0952	0.0000	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.1622	0.2619	0.1622	0.1622	0.0541	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.60	45	-	172.000	40.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	48.000	0.2326	0.3077	0.2733	0.2326	0.0814	0.1105	0.2791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8640
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2697
predicted_R	0.3220
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2395
predicted_SO	1.0480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0830	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8220	3.8640	3.8393	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.3830	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7650	0.7444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2697	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3560	0.3220	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2640	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2395	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.0480	1.0592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-RF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 25

All-history rows before 20260519: 25

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1605

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.240	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.240	4.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.210	0.000	-0.210	0.000
predicted_SO	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.840	3.000	1.160	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.240	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	0.840	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.322	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.033
predicted_H	0.538	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.136	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.322	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.002
predicted_H	0.521	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.023
predicted_R	0.391	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.129	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.854	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1471	0.1714	0.1765	0.1471	0.0000	0.0294	0.2353
season	0.60	25	-	81.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	21.000	0.1605	0.2473	0.2099	0.1605	0.0370	0.0988	0.2593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4560
predicted_AVG	0.1882
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	0.6500
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2462
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.1630
predicted_SLG	0.2521
predicted_SO	0.8630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1330	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2400	3.4560	3.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1882	0.1881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.2330	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6500	0.5382	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.3670	0.4124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1630	0.1363	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2521	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8400	0.8630	0.8487	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.245	0.167
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	1.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.333	0.172	0.167
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.333	0.118	0.167
predicted_SO	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	1.000	0.289	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.651	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.036
predicted_H	0.822	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.466	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.746	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.362	-0.002
predicted_H	0.796	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.012
predicted_R	0.442	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.751	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.60	45	-	165.000	42.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	21.000	18.000	32.000	0.2545	0.3279	0.3818	0.2545	0.0364	0.1273	0.1091	0.1939

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2394
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3004
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.3312
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0760	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6280	3.6511	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3130	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8690	0.8223	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3004	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4650	0.4662	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3020	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.7970	0.7462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2024

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.131	0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.000	0.264	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.529	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.009
predicted_H	0.734	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.157	-0.001
predicted_H	0.710	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.016
predicted_R	0.269	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.597	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.017	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	10.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.2059	0.0000	0.2941
season	0.60	24	-	84.000	17.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	6.000	4.000	24.000	0.2024	0.2360	0.3333	0.2024	0.0238	0.1905	0.0476	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.2208
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.2513
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.3731
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.2000	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5760	3.5286	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2208	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1430	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7900	0.7339	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2513	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3390	0.2835	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6770	0.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3731	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0260	1.0098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3023

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.500	-0.052	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.147	2.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.500	-0.073	-0.250
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.512	1.250	-0.012	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.706	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.088	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.011
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.834	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.092	0.004
predicted_H	1.091	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.447	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.335	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.834	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.091	-0.001
predicted_H	1.056	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.022
predicted_R	0.424	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.439	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.716	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.6190	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	9.000	0.2750	0.2750	0.5250	0.2750	0.0500	0.1250	0.0000	0.2250
season	0.60	34	-	129.000	39.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	15.000	14.000	3.000	24.000	0.3023	0.3233	0.5116	0.3023	0.0310	0.1163	0.0233	0.1860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3510
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2922
predicted_BB	0.0970
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3137
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.5101
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.3510	0.3347	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0320	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.8950	3.8340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2922	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0880	0.0970	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1380	1.0909	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3137	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5010	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4820	0.4627	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5101	0.5100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.7190	0.7112	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2023

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.932	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.932	3.000	0.068	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.048	0.250
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	-0.020	0.250
predicted_R	0.523	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.523	0.000	0.477	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	1.568	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_SO	1.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	0.000	-0.114	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.932	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.220	-
predicted_R	0.523	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.899	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	-0.023
predicted_H	0.597	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.899	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.316	-0.002
predicted_H	0.578	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.008
predicted_R	0.443	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.311	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.243	-0.015
predicted_SO	1.163	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.932

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	0.0811	0.1707	0.1081	0.0811	0.0000	0.0270	0.1081	0.3784
season	0.60	44	-	173.000	35.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	23.000	15.000	49.000	0.2023	0.2698	0.3237	0.2023	0.0231	0.1098	0.0867	0.2832

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8510
predicted_AVG	0.1613
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.6210
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2201
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.2587
predicted_SO	1.2140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1820	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9320	3.8510	3.8988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1613	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.2840	0.3176	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6210	0.5968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2200	0.2201	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5230	0.3870	0.4672	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3380	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2587	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.2140	1.1550	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2479

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.361	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.361	3.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.649	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.000	-0.496	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.361	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.408	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.649	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.320	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	0.095
predicted_H	0.981	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.295	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.000
predicted_R	0.488	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.649	0.000
predicted_SO	0.804	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.481	-0.003
predicted_H	0.949	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.281	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.032
predicted_R	0.463	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.596	-0.032
predicted_SLG	0.610	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.809	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.084

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.5000	0.6500	1.2143	0.5000	0.2143	0.3571	0.4286	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	7.000	0.3571	0.5135	0.8214	0.3571	0.1429	0.2857	0.3214	0.2500
season	0.60	36	-	121.000	30.000	9.000	7.000	17.000	16.000	14.000	29.000	0.2479	0.3309	0.4959	0.2479	0.0578	0.1405	0.1157	0.2397

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2570
predicted_AVG	0.3064
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.3020
predicted_OBP	0.4085
predicted_R	0.5550
predicted_RBI	0.6410
predicted_SLG	0.6489
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2040	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3610	3.2570	3.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.6290	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9980	0.9811	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3020	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4080	0.4085	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5550	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6410	0.6283	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6490	0.6489	0.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.8010	0.8040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1801

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.578	2.000	0.422	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.070	0.250
predicted_BB	0.511	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.511	1.000	-0.511	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.644	0.000	0.356	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.333	-0.028	-0.083
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.000	-0.073	0.250
predicted_SO	0.933	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	2.000	1.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.578	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.511	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.587	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.042
predicted_H	0.569	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	0.930	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.466	-0.003
predicted_H	0.551	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.003
predicted_R	0.480	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.263	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.937	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1081	0.1500	0.2162	0.1081	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.2973
season	0.60	45	-	161.000	29.000	5.000	6.000	20.000	24.000	23.000	42.000	0.1801	0.2781	0.3230	0.1801	0.0373	0.1242	0.1429	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5990
predicted_AVG	0.1658
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.2481
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.2894
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1350	0.1208	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5780	3.5990	3.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1658	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5110	0.4090	0.4692	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5970	0.5693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2481	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.4660	0.5056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3270	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.9270	0.9305	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Griffin Canning (656288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 3

All-history rows before 20260519: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	4.333	6.000	0.667	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.000	5.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.433	1.200	-0.333	1.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.667	2.000	-1.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	11.000	13.000	15.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	10.6364	2.1818	1.1818	1.3636	0.8182	1.2727	0.0909
last_10	0.35	3	11.000	13.000	15.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	10.6364	2.1818	1.1818	1.3636	0.8182	1.2727	0.0909
season	0.20	3	11.000	13.000	15.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	10.6364	2.1818	1.1818	1.3636	0.8182	1.2727	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1050
predicted_ER	2.8530
predicted_ERA	6.6272
predicted_H	4.2560
predicted_HR	0.4480
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.1530
predicted_WHIP	1.6415

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1050	2.6546	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.8530	4.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6272	6.6272	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.2560	5.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4480	1.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.1530	3.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6415	1.6415	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	6
R	5
ER	5
BB	3
SO	3
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	14
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	10.64
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	64
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	33
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656288
playerID	656288
playerName	Griffin Canning
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.853	1.000	1.147	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	15.200	2.000	10.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	1.1489	0.9574	0.1277	0.6383	0.3191	0.4468	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.3130
predicted_ERA	2.8127
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7620
predicted_WHIP	1.2048

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3850	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3130	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8127	2.8127	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8190	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7620	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2048	1.2048	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	0.092	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	0.000	0.769	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	0.9091	0.0909	0.5454	0.3636	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	8.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.2927	1.0976	0.3659	0.5854	0.5122	1.1707	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3820
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	3.3212
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9500
predicted_WHIP	1.1829

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3820	0.1436	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3690	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3212	3.3212	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8010	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9500	1.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1829	1.1829	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	2.000	-0.381	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.014	1.000	0.086	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.143	1.000	-2.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	5.000	13.000	0.0000	1.4118	0.0000	0.5294	0.8823	2.2941
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	6.000	18.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.7500	0.5625	1.6875
season	0.20	21	22.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	45.000	0.8182	0.8182	0.0909	0.4546	0.3636	2.0455

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5130
predicted_ER	0.2900
predicted_ERA	2.6063
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4550
predicted_WHIP	1.2899

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5130	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2900	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6063	2.6063	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7770	0.9054	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4550	0.6174	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2899	1.2899	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_LAD@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.100	0.000	-0.100	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	1.000	0.125	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	3.9706	0.9706	0.4412	0.6177	0.3529	1.4118	0.1765
season	0.20	20	23.000	13.000	22.000	6.000	28.000	2.000	5.0870	1.2174	0.5652	0.9565	0.2609	1.2174	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_ER	0.3430
predicted_ERA	3.7425
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9490
predicted_WHIP	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2680	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3430	0.7181	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7425	3.7425	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6370	0.8443	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0870	0.6083	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9490	0.9781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0960	1.0960	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260519_MIL@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.581221, "home_win_probability": 0.418779, "away_win_probability": 0.581221, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 3 - 1 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 1, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 3 - 1 CHC", "confidence": 0.581221, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "MIL 3 - 1 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 3 - 2 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 3 - 1 CHC	MIL	0.581	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 3 - 2 CHC	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	8-2	0.800	4.60	2.50	21	1W	average	strong
Home CHC	3-7	0.300	3.60	5	-14	3L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	27-18	0.600	67	1.489	True
Home CHC	29-19	0.604	36	0.750	True
Signal	-	-	-0.739	-0.733	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	MIL @ CHC	9 - 3	MIL	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target CHC	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	34	9	7	0	4	1	9
Player finalized CHC	33	9	4	0	1	3	9
Player model fractional MIL	33.88	8.62	5.34	0.84	4.41	3.79	7.90
Player model fractional CHC	33.10	6.86	4.68	1.06	3.73	4.44	8.18
Simulation box MIL	35	9	3	1	3	2	10
Simulation box CHC	33	6	2	1	2	5	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Jacob Misiorowski	5.20	0	8	5	4	2.52	1.02	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.69	1.23	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1	2	0	1	1	4.92	1.33	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	1	0	0	3.72	1.18	True
Home CHC	Starter	Ben Brown	5	0	6	3	1	2.25	0.91	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	1	0	3	1	4.01	1.33	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	2	1	3	2	0	3.21	1.19	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	1	1	1	0	5.82	1.40	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 32

All-history rows before 20260519: 32

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.450	0.417
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.470	0.500
predicted_R	0.344	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.344	0.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.250	1.383	1.417
predicted_SO	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.767	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.022
predicted_H	0.855	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.507	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.293	0.003
predicted_H	0.887	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.010
predicted_SO	0.501	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.2432	0.2432	0.1081	0.0811	0.1351
season	0.60	32	-	120.000	26.000	8.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	15.000	0.2167	0.2803	0.2833	0.2167	0.1167	0.0833	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7920
predicted_AVG	0.2397
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2913
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.3004
predicted_SO	0.5650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1570	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7920	3.7666	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2397	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2570	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9090	0.8552	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2913	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.3110	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4630	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3004	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.5650	0.5070	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2199

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	1.000	0.897	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.280	0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	1.000	1.205	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.204	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.487	1.000	0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	2.000	0.615	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.500	0.438	0.250
predicted_SO	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.776	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.047
predicted_H	0.796	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.776	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.299	0.003
predicted_H	0.826	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.004
predicted_R	0.505	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.570	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2683	0.2683	0.3171	0.2683	0.0000	0.1463	0.0000	0.1707
season	0.60	38	-	141.000	31.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	19.000	13.000	20.000	0.2199	0.2903	0.3121	0.2199	0.0213	0.0922	0.0922	0.1418

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.2350
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2803
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.3301
predicted_SO	0.6510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1790	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.8730	3.7762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2350	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.2260	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9100	0.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2803	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4380	0.4750	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4460	0.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3301	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5260	0.6510	0.5763	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2882

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.048	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.048	5.000	-1.048	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.400	0.378	0.267
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.400	0.389	0.350
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.400	0.278	0.267
predicted_SO	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.048	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.027	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.009
predicted_H	1.100	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.554	0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.001
predicted_BB	0.448	0.005
predicted_H	1.140	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.003
predicted_R	0.569	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.006
predicted_SO	0.548	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.048

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2895	0.3636	0.3158	0.2895	0.0000	0.1053	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.60	42	-	170.000	49.000	8.000	3.000	27.000	24.000	19.000	22.000	0.2882	0.3613	0.3882	0.2882	0.0176	0.1588	0.1118	0.1294

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9980
predicted_AVG	0.2820
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	1.1280
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3518
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.3590
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1420	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0480	3.9980	4.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.4290	0.4426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1280	1.0997	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3518	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.4830	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5030	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3590	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.5980	0.5544	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Christian Yelich (592885) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 16

All-history rows before 20260519: 16

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.500	-0.290	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.600	-0.353	-0.600
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	1.500	-0.468	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.006
predicted_3B	0.056	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.834	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	0.004
predicted_H	0.920	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.706	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.512	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.077	-0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.834	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.383	0.004
predicted_H	0.954	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.177	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.009
predicted_R	0.751	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.545	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.065	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.5882	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2432	0.3171	0.5405	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.60	16	-	62.000	18.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	18.000	0.2903	0.3529	0.4677	0.2903	0.0323	0.1452	0.0968	0.2903

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2539
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3260
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.4726
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2040	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0440	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.7620	3.8343	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3860	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9550	0.9198	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3260	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6290	0.7064	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5340	0.5123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4726	0.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9930	1.0774	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	592885
playerID	592885
playerName	Christian Yelich
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.500	5.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.400	-0.115	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.417	2.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.400	-0.151	-0.200
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.400	-0.263	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.250	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	0.000	1.750	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.417	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.376	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.429	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.007
predicted_H	1.205	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.228	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.376	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.004
predicted_BB	0.245	0.003
predicted_H	1.250	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.002
predicted_R	0.388	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.019
predicted_SO	1.214	-0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 4.500

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.2917	0.2917	0.5000	0.2917	0.0417	0.0833	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	45.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	14.000	0.2444	0.2766	0.3556	0.2444	0.0222	0.0889	0.0444	0.3111
season	0.60	12	-	54.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.3148	0.3509	0.4630	0.3148	0.0185	0.0926	0.0556	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2990
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.2980
predicted_AVG	0.2782
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.1960
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3177
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.4307
predicted_SO	1.1880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4170	0.2990	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5000	4.2980	4.4295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2782	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2290	0.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.1960	1.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1150	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3177	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4250	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4390	0.4397	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4307	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1880	1.2284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 35

All-history rows before 20260519: 35

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	4.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.500	-0.045	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	2.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	-0.122	-0.250
predicted_R	0.743	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.743	2.000	-0.743	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.743	4.000	-0.743	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.583	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	1.250	-0.023	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.886	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.886	0.000	2.114	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.332	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.743	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.583	-
predicted_SO	0.886	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.305	0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.764	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.000
predicted_BB	0.445	-0.012
predicted_H	1.188	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.000
predicted_R	0.734	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.745	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.583	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.305	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.764	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.450	0.005
predicted_H	1.232	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.399	-0.002
predicted_R	0.781	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.793	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.553	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.869	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.327 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.4737	0.5238	0.8421	0.4737	0.0526	0.3158	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	14.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.3889	0.4634	0.6944	0.3889	0.0556	0.2222	0.1389	0.2500
season	0.60	35	-	132.000	39.000	9.000	7.000	26.000	26.000	16.000	31.000	0.2955	0.3716	0.5227	0.2954	0.0530	0.1970	0.1212	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7530
predicted_AVG	0.3320
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	1.2460
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.4010
predicted_R	0.7210
predicted_RBI	0.7830
predicted_SLG	0.5830
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.3760	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.7530	3.7638	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3320	0.3320	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.4260	0.4446	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2460	1.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1870	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4010	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7430	0.7210	0.7342	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7830	0.7452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5830	0.5830	0.5830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8860	0.8690	0.8792	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-1B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2300

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.030	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.030	1.000	-0.030	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.256	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.256	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.070	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	-0.017
predicted_H	0.568	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.158	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.070	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.412	0.005
predicted_H	0.589	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.018
predicted_R	0.532	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.168	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.1935	0.2647	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.0968	0.3226
season	0.60	33	-	100.000	23.000	2.000	7.000	17.000	14.000	24.000	0.2300	0.3304	0.2500	0.2300	0.0700	0.1400	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1330
predicted_AVG	0.2151
predicted_BB	0.3810
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3047
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.2560
predicted_SO	0.8160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.0610	0.0610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0300	3.1330	3.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2151	0.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.3810	0.4073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6740	0.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0204	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3047	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.4780	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1850	0.1575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2560	0.2560	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8160	0.7617	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	3.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.333	-0.237	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.333	-0.348	-0.333
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	1.000	-0.515	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.697	1.000	-0.697	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.377	1.333	-0.377	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.455	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.455	1.000	-1.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.576	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.005
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.466	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.512	-0.064
predicted_H	0.796	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.409	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.466	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.518	0.006
predicted_H	0.826	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.011
predicted_R	0.523	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.393	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	14.000	0.2000	0.2564	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.0857	0.0857	0.4000
season	0.60	33	-	114.000	27.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	23.000	17.000	19.000	48.000	0.2368	0.3481	0.3772	0.2368	0.0175	0.2018	0.1667	0.4210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.2445
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3261
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.4156
predicted_SO	1.3390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.2540	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0170	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.4830	3.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2445	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5760	0.4160	0.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8520	0.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3261	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.4570	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5090	0.4734	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4156	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4550	1.3390	1.4090	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2803

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	1.262	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	-0.080	0.200
predicted_BB	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.048	0.000	-0.048	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.403	0.200	-0.203	0.000
predicted_R	0.881	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.881	1.000	-0.881	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	-0.271	0.200
predicted_SO	0.976	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.976	2.000	0.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.881	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.976	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.743	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.733	-0.053
predicted_H	0.880	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.878	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.001
predicted_BB	0.742	0.008
predicted_H	0.913	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.015
predicted_R	0.933	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.533	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.007
predicted_SO	0.991	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.3333	0.2051	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	44.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	27.000	37.000	33.000	41.000	0.2803	0.4031	0.4713	0.2802	0.0382	0.1720	0.2102	0.2611

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7510
predicted_AVG	0.2428
predicted_BB	0.6570
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3537
predicted_R	0.8730
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.3942
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2180	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.7510	3.7433	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2428	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.6570	0.7331	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9100	0.8805	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1070	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3537	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8810	0.8730	0.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5170	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9760	1.0400	1.0023	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jacob Misiorowski (694819) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	0.000	2.111	4.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.333	0.000	-1.333	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	3.222	4.000	1.778	1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.589	7.000	-0.389	-1.800
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	8.889	10.000	-0.889	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	4.000	16.000	8.000	47.000	0.000	1.2273	0.8182	0.1364	0.5454	0.2727	1.6023	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	51.000	12.000	29.000	17.000	80.000	4.000	2.1176	0.9020	0.2353	0.5686	0.3333	1.5686	0.0784
season	0.20	9	51.000	12.000	29.000	17.000	80.000	4.000	2.1176	0.9020	0.2353	0.5686	0.3333	1.5686	0.0784

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8870
predicted_ER	1.6210
predicted_ERA	2.5162
predicted_H	4.0110
predicted_HR	0.3820
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	7.8950
predicted_WHIP	1.0171

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.8870	2.9453	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6210	0.8091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5162	2.5162	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.0110	4.5064	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3820	0.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	7.8950	6.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0171	1.0171	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	0
ER	0
BB	4
SO	8
HR	0
BF	26
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694819
playerID	694819
playerName	Jacob Misiorowski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	-1.095	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.248	2.000	-0.148	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.095	1.000	-2.095	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.000	1.2000	1.2667	0.1333	0.6667	0.6000	1.4667	0.0000
season	0.20	21	29.000	7.000	23.000	15.000	44.000	1.000	2.1724	1.3103	0.2414	0.7931	0.5172	1.5172	0.0345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_ER	0.4230
predicted_ERA	2.6914
predicted_H	1.1690
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6680
predicted_WHIP	1.2307

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5710	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4230	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6914	2.6914	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1690	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6680	1.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2307	1.2307	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	1.526	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.826	1.000	0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	-0.947	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.6667	0.4444	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	4.6731	1.2115	0.5192	0.8077	0.4038	1.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_ER	0.5460
predicted_ERA	4.9155
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.3311

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4670	0.7870	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5460	1.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9155	4.9155	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8640	0.9457	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1550	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9370	1.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3311	1.3311	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	-0.824
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.941	1.000	0.059
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	-0.176

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	16	16.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	3.7184
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1000
predicted_WHIP	1.1767

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3230	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7184	3.7184	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8540	0.3344	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1000	1.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1767	1.1767	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: CHC

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2460

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.065	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.065	4.000	-2.065	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	-0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.522	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.522	0.000	1.478	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.522	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.783	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.006
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.086	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.485	-0.037
predicted_H	1.050	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.520	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.804	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000
predicted_H	1.026	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.006
predicted_R	0.500	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.327	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.065

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.3182	0.3750	0.3636	0.3182	0.0000	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3810	0.2857	0.0238	0.0714	0.0714	0.2381
season	0.60	46	-	187.000	46.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	21.000	24.000	36.000	0.2460	0.3333	0.3529	0.2460	0.0214	0.0802	0.1283	0.1925

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1150
predicted_AVG	0.2654
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3371
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.3650
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1440	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0650	4.1150	4.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2654	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5220	0.4330	0.4852	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0920	1.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3371	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6100	0.5203	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3540	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7830	0.8330	0.8037	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	2.000	-0.239	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	2.000	1.326	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	1.000	0.163	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.696	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.696	1.000	-0.696	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	2.000	1.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	0.913	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	1.000	0.036	-0.600
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	1.000	1.435	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.456	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	2.000	0.615	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.978	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	0.000	0.022	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.696	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.456	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.036
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.641	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.731	0.035
predicted_H	0.929	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.615	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.968	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.731	0.001
predicted_H	0.908	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.025
predicted_R	0.430	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.591	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.967	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.2778	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	9.000	0.2812	0.4773	0.5000	0.2812	0.0312	0.2188	0.3438	0.2812
season	0.60	46	-	169.000	40.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	26.000	20.000	32.000	45.000	0.2367	0.3641	0.3846	0.2367	0.0237	0.1538	0.1893	0.2663

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3270
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2623
predicted_BB	0.7800
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.4001
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.4555
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.3270	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.5940	3.6410	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2623	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6960	0.7800	0.7307	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9430	0.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1140	0.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.4001	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.4650	0.4474	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6230	0.6154	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4560	0.4555	0.4558	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	0.9540	0.9681	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2312

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.106	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.681	4.000	0.319	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.851	0.000	-0.851	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.532	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.532	0.000	-0.532	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.021	2.000	-1.021	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.681	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.319	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.532	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	1.021	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.662	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	0.010
predicted_H	0.686	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.166	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	3.662	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.330	0.000
predicted_H	0.671	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.166	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.054
predicted_R	0.455	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.401	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.001	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.1471	0.2750	0.2647	0.1471	0.0294	0.1177	0.1177	0.2647
season	0.60	47	-	173.000	40.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	20.000	25.000	15.000	48.000	0.2312	0.3109	0.3699	0.2312	0.0289	0.1156	0.0867	0.2775

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.2072
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.1660
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.3489
predicted_SO	0.9740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1060	0.0960	0.1019	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6810	3.6340	3.6617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2072	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3190	0.3440	0.3293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7530	0.6864	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1660	0.1660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1240	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5320	0.3890	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4580	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3489	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0210	0.9740	1.0017	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1883

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.422	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.422	4.000	-0.422	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.250	-0.188	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.533	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.644	1.000	-0.644	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.250	-0.047	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.844	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	0.000	1.156	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.422	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	0.025
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.455	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.494	-0.039
predicted_H	0.602	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.655	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.495	0.000
predicted_H	0.589	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.136	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.002
predicted_R	0.629	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.425	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.844	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.1471	0.2162	0.2941	0.1471	0.0294	0.0882	0.0882	0.2059
season	0.60	45	-	154.000	29.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	25.000	30.000	24.000	38.000	0.1883	0.2967	0.3571	0.1883	0.0454	0.1623	0.1558	0.2467

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.5030
predicted_AVG	0.1854
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	0.6490
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.2761
predicted_R	0.6380
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3573
predicted_SO	0.8470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1280	0.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4220	3.5030	3.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1854	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.4380	0.4942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6490	0.6023	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1490	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2761	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6380	0.6552	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4750	0.4425	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3573	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.8470	0.8452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 31

All-history rows before 20260519: 31

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2347

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.161	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.161	3.000	0.839	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.333	0.015	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.333	-0.044	-0.083
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.333	-0.189	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.677	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.677	1.000	1.323	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.161	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.677	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.262	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.016
predicted_H	0.576	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.461	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	0.070

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.262	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.274	0.000
predicted_H	0.563	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.000
predicted_R	0.373	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.442	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.746	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.0857	0.1538	0.1714	0.0857	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.60	31	-	98.000	23.000	2.000	6.000	18.000	13.000	9.000	21.000	0.2347	0.2936	0.4388	0.2347	0.0612	0.1837	0.0918	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.1853
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2369
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0680	0.0662	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1610	3.4210	3.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1853	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.2490	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6340	0.5764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2369	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3400	0.3884	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5090	0.4606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6770	0.8580	0.7470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.717	4.000	0.283	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.761	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.761	0.000	-0.761	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.826	0.000	-0.826	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.761	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.761	0.000	-0.761	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SO	1.435	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.435	2.000	-0.435	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.717	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.761	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.761	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.435	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.726	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.729	-0.032
predicted_H	0.731	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.724	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	1.438	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.726	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.730	0.001
predicted_H	0.714	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.010
predicted_R	0.696	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.436	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	17.000	0.1429	0.3023	0.2286	0.1429	0.0286	0.0857	0.2286	0.4857
season	0.60	46	-	171.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	35.000	35.000	66.000	0.2222	0.3606	0.4444	0.2222	0.0585	0.1170	0.2047	0.3860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7390
predicted_AVG	0.2072
predicted_BB	0.6840
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3336
predicted_R	0.6720
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3841
predicted_SO	1.4410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.0910	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7170	3.7390	3.7261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2072	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7610	0.6840	0.7292	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7750	0.7310	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1810	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3336	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7610	0.6720	0.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4100	0.3865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3841	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4350	1.4410	1.4375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 32

All-history rows before 20260519: 32

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	4.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.500	-0.268	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.031	2.000	-1.031	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.500	-0.118	-0.250
predicted_R	0.688	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	0.000	-0.688	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.500	-0.472	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.882	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.045
predicted_H	0.886	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.657	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.518	0.001
predicted_H	0.866	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.009
predicted_R	0.631	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.386	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.140	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.2727	0.2273	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	14.000	0.1795	0.2727	0.2821	0.1795	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.3590
season	0.60	32	-	123.000	33.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	22.000	18.000	36.000	0.2683	0.3681	0.4715	0.2683	0.0569	0.1382	0.1463	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9380
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.4500
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3237
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.3942
predicted_SO	1.1660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1420	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.9380	3.8816	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.4500	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9560	0.8864	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3237	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.6100	0.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4350	0.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.1660	1.1414	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2540

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.109	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.109	3.000	-0.109	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.246	0.500
predicted_BB	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	2.000	0.522	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.043	0.000	0.957	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.400	0.261	0.200
predicted_R	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	1.000	0.522	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.124	0.500
predicted_SO	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.109	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.370	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.099	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	0.036
predicted_H	0.867	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	0.393	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.099	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000
predicted_H	0.847	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.050	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.020
predicted_R	0.456	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.001
predicted_SO	0.393	-0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.109

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.1429	0.3077	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2381	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	0.1463	0.2553	0.1707	0.1463	0.0000	0.0244	0.1463	0.0732
season	0.60	46	-	189.000	48.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	22.000	22.000	17.000	0.2540	0.3394	0.3757	0.2540	0.0212	0.1534	0.1164	0.0900

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0860
predicted_AVG	0.2144
predicted_BB	0.5640
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3149
predicted_R	0.4700
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.4260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.1670	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1090	4.0860	4.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2144	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.5640	0.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8760	0.8666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3149	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.4700	0.4747	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4100	0.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3700	0.4260	0.3932	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_MIL@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2462

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.004	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.500	-0.097	-0.250
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.550	1.000	-0.550	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	1.250	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.850	0.000	1.150	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.850	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.292	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	0.012
predicted_H	0.688	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.847	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.041
predicted_BB	0.362	0.000
predicted_H	0.672	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.137	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.062
predicted_R	0.513	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.398	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.066
predicted_SO	0.846	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2188	0.3421	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.1562	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.60	20	-	65.000	16.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	7.000	17.000	0.2462	0.3467	0.4000	0.2462	0.0461	0.1385	0.1077	0.2615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3650
predicted_AVG	0.2447
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3448
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.4093
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0680	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3650	3.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2447	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.3830	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8230	0.6881	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1600	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3448	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.5080	0.5346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4910	0.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4093	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8500	0.8410	0.8467	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.357	1.000	1.643	2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.321	4.000	2.679	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	2.429	7.000	3.571	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	12.200	1.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	0.000	0.7105	0.3947	0.0790	0.1579	0.2368	1.0263	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	23.000	1.000	11.000	6.000	23.000	0.000	0.3913	0.7391	0.0435	0.4783	0.2609	1.0000	0.0000
season	0.20	14	33.200	6.000	19.000	10.000	34.000	1.000	1.6040	0.8614	0.1782	0.5644	0.2970	1.0099	0.0297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1010
predicted_ER	0.8910
predicted_ERA	2.2527
predicted_H	2.1480
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5150
predicted_WHIP	0.9122

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.1010	1.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8910	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2527	2.2527	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	2.1480	2.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2110	0.0990	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	3.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.5150	4.8344	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9122	0.9122	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	65
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	40
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 10

All-history rows before 20260519: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	2.200	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_ER	0.4230
predicted_ERA	4.0073
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9160
predicted_WHIP	1.3334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3370	0.7755	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4230	0.8046	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0073	4.0073	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9310	2.2994	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1390	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9160	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3334	1.3334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.855	1.100	1.145	0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	3.000	1.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.5000	0.8333	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.6875	1.0312	0.1875	0.7500	0.2812	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	20	19.200	7.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.2034	1.4237	0.3559	1.0170	0.4068	1.1695	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3800
predicted_ERA	3.2071
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1230
predicted_WHIP	1.1873

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.1428	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3800	0.7442	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2071	3.2071	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9200	1.5543	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1080	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1230	2.2255	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1873	1.1873	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	43

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.929	3.000	0.071	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.714	0.200	0.286	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	0.000	-0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.0000	1.4000	1.0000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	9.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	9.0000	1.6667	1.0000	1.4444	0.2222	1.3333	0.2222
season	0.20	14	12.100	13.000	16.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	9.4865	1.7838	1.0540	1.2973	0.4865	1.2973	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.6470
predicted_ERA	5.8229
predicted_H	1.0590
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0550
predicted_WHIP	1.4004

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3410	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6470	0.8707	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8229	5.8229	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0590	1.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1880	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0550	1.0201	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4004	1.4004	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	9.49
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260519_NYM@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYM 4 - 5 WAS	WAS	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYM 3 - 4 WAS	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYM	7-3	0.700	5.80	3.70	21	3W	hot	average
Home WAS	5-5	0.500	5.70	6.90	-12	2L	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYM	21-26	0.447	-7	-0.149	True
Home WAS	23-25	0.479	-22	-0.458	True
Signal	-	-	-0.309	-0.261	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	NYM @ WAS	16 - 7	NYM	9	blowout
2026-04-30	WAS @ NYM	5 - 4	WAS	1	close
2026-04-29	WAS @ NYM	14 - 2	WAS	12	blowout
2026-04-28	WAS @ NYM	0 - 8	NYM	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYM	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYM	34	9	3	0	4	1	9
Player finalized WAS	33	8	4	0	2	1	8
Player model fractional NYM	32.92	7.83	4.21	0.97	4.38	2.73	7.24
Player model fractional WAS	32.18	7.52	4.90	0.84	3.63	3.40	7.87
Simulation box NYM	32	7	3	0	3	3	11
Simulation box WAS	34	10	4	2	4	4	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYM	Starter	Nolan McLean	5.20	2	5	5	3	3.60	1.15	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1.10	0	0	1	1	3.10	1.42	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1	0	0	2	0	3.00	1.07	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	0	2	0	2	0	2.89	1.29	True
Home WAS	Starter	Foster Griffin	6	2	6	5	1	3.91	1.17	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.10	1	2	2	1	2.97	1.21	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1	0	2	0	0	4.39	1.43	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	0.20	0	1	0	1	2.85	1.52	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	0	0	0	0	0	3.57	1.54	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYM

Nick Morabito (703492) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.595	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.895	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.924	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-
predicted_3B	0.020	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.416	-
predicted_H	0.895	-
predicted_HR	0.094	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.426	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.924	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.627	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.021
predicted_H	0.900	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.003
predicted_R	0.482	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.001
predicted_SO	0.912	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.627	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.004
predicted_BB	0.394	-0.001
predicted_H	0.913	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.002
predicted_R	0.493	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.004
predicted_SO	0.914	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3961
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1830	0.1820	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0200	0.0140	0.0191	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.8010	3.6274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2443	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4160	0.2820	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8950	0.9290	0.9004	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0940	0.1230	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3052	0.3236	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.4930	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4260	0.4750	0.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3961	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9240	0.8510	0.9125	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.118	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.118	3.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.333	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.214	0.333	0.286	0.167
predicted_R	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.245	0.667	0.088	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.118	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.204	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.026
predicted_H	0.560	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.738	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.204	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.143	-0.000
predicted_H	0.568	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.047
predicted_R	0.334	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.739	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3750	0.2500	0.1250	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1613	0.2353	0.2581	0.1613	0.1290	0.0645	0.2903
season	0.60	17	-	53.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.1698	0.2143	0.2453	0.1698	0.0943	0.0377	0.2264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2530
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3650
predicted_AVG	0.2051
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2591
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3164
predicted_SO	0.7970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2530	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1180	3.3650	3.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2051	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1920	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6900	0.5596	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2591	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.3870	0.3264	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3820	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3164	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.7970	0.7377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	6.000	-0.100	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.108	0.000
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	2.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	0.000	-0.083
predicted_R	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.150	2.000	0.850	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.500	0.011	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.150	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.228	0.128
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.115	0.015
predicted_H	0.709	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.205	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.611	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.228	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.114	-0.000
predicted_H	0.719	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.014
predicted_R	0.209	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.612	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2432	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.60	20	-	62.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2258	0.2500	0.3226	0.2258	0.0161	0.0968	0.0323	0.1774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4600
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.1410
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2629
predicted_R	0.3030
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3527
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.2000	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.4600	3.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1410	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7980	0.7092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2629	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1500	0.3030	0.2046	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3790	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3527	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.7210	0.6110	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	5.000	0.306	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.024	0.250
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.000	-0.018	0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.000	-0.156	0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.781	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.178	-0.016
predicted_H	0.806	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.624	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.781	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.000
predicted_H	0.818	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.007
predicted_R	0.437	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.639	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.809	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.3636	0.1818	0.0454	0.2273	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.2381	0.2558	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429
season	0.60	36	-	133.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	22.000	15.000	7.000	30.000	0.2256	0.2676	0.4060	0.2256	0.0451	0.1654	0.0526	0.2256

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9130
predicted_AVG	0.2237
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.2580
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.6760
predicted_SLG	0.4010
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1800	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.9130	3.7814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2237	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1530	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8750	0.8059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1700	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4430	0.4274	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6760	0.6243	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4010	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7700	0.8079	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 31

All-history rows before 20260519: 31

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2797

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	5.000	0.194	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.400	-0.030	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.645	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.645	2.000	-0.645	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	2.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.571	-0.131	-0.321
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	2.000	-0.516	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.400	-0.233	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	1.000	0.290	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.645	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.818	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.645	0.000
predicted_H	1.069	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.206	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.595	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.644	-0.001
predicted_H	1.085	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.208	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.003
predicted_R	0.609	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.589	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.492	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.733	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	0.4000	0.5200	0.7000	0.4000	0.1000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3778	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1842	0.2105
season	0.60	31	-	118.000	33.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	16.000	17.000	20.000	22.000	0.2797	0.3813	0.4831	0.2797	0.0508	0.1356	0.1695	0.1864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.8360
predicted_AVG	0.2905
predicted_BB	0.6450
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2150
predicted_OBP	0.3900
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.5990
predicted_SLG	0.4931
predicted_SO	0.7650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0970	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0190	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.8360	3.8179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2905	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6450	0.6450	0.6450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1140	1.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2150	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.6670	0.5954	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5990	0.5755	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4931	0.4930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.7650	0.7319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	2
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	6.000	-0.595	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.085	0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	2.000	0.108	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.333	0.192	0.167
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	2.000	-0.486	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	3.000	-0.514	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.833	-0.050	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.162	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	3.000	-0.162	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.007
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.663	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	0.025
predicted_H	0.921	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.606	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.466	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.166	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.663	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.001
predicted_H	0.934	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.027
predicted_R	0.519	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.168	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.7000	0.3500	0.1000	0.3500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.5500	0.3250	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.3250
season	0.60	37	-	133.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	18.000	11.000	43.000	0.2481	0.3082	0.3835	0.2481	0.0226	0.1429	0.0827	0.3233

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.2771
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	1.0430
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3417
predicted_R	0.5400
predicted_RBI	0.6910
predicted_SLG	0.4658
predicted_SO	1.1710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2070	0.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.7640	3.6626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2771	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.3590	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0430	0.9212	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1570	0.1408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3417	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5400	0.5076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6910	0.6064	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4658	0.4659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.1710	1.1656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-1B
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	6.000	0.308	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.007	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	3.000	0.051	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.571	-0.118	-0.371
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	3.000	0.410	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	3.000	0.564	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.667	-0.118	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.822	0.130
predicted_AVG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.013
predicted_H	1.100	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.651	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.726	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.822	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.001
predicted_H	1.116	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.063	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.006
predicted_R	0.666	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.728	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4231	0.4583	0.3750	0.0000	0.1667	0.0417	0.0833
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.3636	0.4043	0.4318	0.3636	0.0000	0.1591	0.0454	0.1364
season	0.60	39	-	144.000	37.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	23.000	12.000	29.000	0.2569	0.3185	0.3681	0.2569	0.0208	0.1181	0.0833	0.2014

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0150
predicted_AVG	0.2926
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	1.1750
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3483
predicted_R	0.7410
predicted_RBI	0.5390
predicted_SLG	0.3984
predicted_SO	0.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2310	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	4.0150	3.8222	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2926	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.2750	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1750	1.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3483	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.7410	0.6509	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5390	0.5038	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3984	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.7000	0.7263	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.638	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.638	5.000	-0.638	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.200	-0.228	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.277	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.277	0.000	0.723	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.830	1.000	-0.830	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.167	-0.033	0.083
predicted_R	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.383	1.000	-0.383	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.362	2.000	-0.362	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.200	-0.322	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.809	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.809	2.000	-0.809	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.638	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.277	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.383	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.809	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.691	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.010
predicted_H	0.848	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.445	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.691	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.001
predicted_H	0.860	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.095	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.009
predicted_R	0.456	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.839	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3478	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2791	0.3333	0.2308	0.0256	0.1026	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.60	47	-	171.000	39.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	18.000	13.000	38.000	0.2281	0.2834	0.3216	0.2281	0.0175	0.0994	0.0760	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2432
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2968
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.3647
predicted_SO	0.8790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1490	0.1540	0.1510	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6380	3.7680	3.6912	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2770	0.3020	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9160	0.8475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1000	0.0941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3830	0.5350	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4550	0.4225	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3647	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8090	0.8790	0.8377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	1.000	-0.128	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.085	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.085	6.000	-0.085	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.500	-0.219	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.319	1.000	-0.319	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.894	3.000	-0.894	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.064	1.000	-0.064	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.571	-0.273	-0.571
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	2.000	-0.447	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	3.000	-0.447	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.297	1.167	-0.297	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.723	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.723	0.000	2.277	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.085	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.319	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.723	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.087	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.038
predicted_H	0.807	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.087	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.001
predicted_H	0.819	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.012
predicted_R	0.489	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.700	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.085

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2800	0.3636	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364	0.1364	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2500	0.1500	0.0250	0.1250	0.1500	0.1000
season	0.60	47	-	192.000	42.000	6.000	3.000	21.000	21.000	15.000	34.000	0.2188	0.2727	0.2969	0.2188	0.0156	0.1094	0.0781	0.1771

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0900
predicted_AVG	0.2035
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2760
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.4860
predicted_SLG	0.3128
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1420	0.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0850	4.0900	4.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2035	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3190	0.4110	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8320	0.8074	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.5210	0.4776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4860	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3128	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7230	0.6640	0.6986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Nolan McLean (690997) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	3.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	3.000	0.111	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	3.889	6.000	1.111	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.711	7.000	-0.511	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	7.111	7.000	-2.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	11.000	25.000	7.000	36.000	3.000	3.4535	1.1163	0.3837	0.8721	0.2442	1.2558	0.1047
last_10	0.35	9	52.100	17.000	35.000	15.000	64.000	4.000	2.9236	0.9554	0.3248	0.6688	0.2866	1.2229	0.0764
season	0.20	9	52.100	17.000	35.000	15.000	64.000	4.000	2.9236	0.9554	0.3248	0.6688	0.2866	1.2229	0.0764

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7140
predicted_ER	2.2650
predicted_ERA	3.5972
predicted_H	4.7930
predicted_HR	0.6060
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.4540
predicted_WHIP	1.1484

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7140	2.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2650	2.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5972	3.5972	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.7930	4.8967	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6060	0.8033	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.4540	5.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1484	1.1484	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.92
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	690997
playerID	690997
playerName	Nolan McLean
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	2.000	0.600	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	0.200	0.335	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.050	0.000	-1.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	2.0769	2.0769	0.2308	1.3846	0.6923	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.7241	0.4138	1.1379	0.0000
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	13.000	8.000	21.000	1.000	1.4727	1.1455	0.1636	0.7091	0.4364	1.1455	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_ER	0.3440
predicted_ERA	3.0990
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9460
predicted_WHIP	1.4203

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4480	0.7762	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3440	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0990	3.0990	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9720	0.9886	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9460	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4203	1.4203	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.4286	0.2143	1.3929	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.200	6.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	1.000	3.4468	1.2128	0.3830	0.8936	0.3191	1.5319	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	2.9975
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1130
predicted_WHIP	1.0656

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1402	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3330	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9975	2.9975	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7050	1.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1130	1.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0656	1.0656	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	1.579	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.842	1.000	1.158	1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.984	1.000	-0.984	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	2.000	-1.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3333	0.0000	0.8333	0.5000	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	1.5429	1.2000	0.1714	0.8571	0.3429	1.4571	0.0857
season	0.20	19	20.100	8.000	16.000	7.000	21.000	2.000	3.5410	1.1311	0.3934	0.7869	0.3443	1.0328	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	2.8944
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8360
predicted_WHIP	1.2856

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2960	0.1232	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2410	1.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8944	2.8944	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6690	1.4462	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0710	0.6134	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8360	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2856	1.2856	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	2
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: WAS

Dylan Crews (686611) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.151	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.532	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.799	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-
predicted_3B	0.017	-
predicted_AB	3.532	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.365	-
predicted_H	0.799	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.005
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.574	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.003
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.013
predicted_H	0.820	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.001
predicted_R	0.474	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.004
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.574	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.353	0.001
predicted_H	0.816	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.003
predicted_R	0.470	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.416	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.918	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3961
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1510	0.1820	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0170	0.0140	0.0165	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5320	3.8010	3.5744	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2443	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3650	0.2820	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7990	0.9290	0.8195	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1090	0.1230	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.3052	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4930	0.4745	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4750	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3961	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.8510	0.9201	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 35

All-history rows before 20260519: 35

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2677

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	3.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	-0.971	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.000	-0.099	0.200
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.008
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.631	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	0.025
predicted_H	0.947	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.604	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.197	0.000
predicted_H	0.942	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.092	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.015
predicted_R	0.421	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.443	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.603	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3243	0.3590	0.6216	0.3243	0.0541	0.1351	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	35	-	127.000	34.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	21.000	16.000	6.000	21.000	0.2677	0.2985	0.4409	0.2677	0.0236	0.1653	0.0472	0.1653

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0470
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.2674
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3124
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.4478
predicted_SO	0.6100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2760	0.2645	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0470	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.6350	3.6314	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2674	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2350	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9720	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3124	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3750	0.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4580	0.4471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4478	0.4479	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6100	0.6040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.1810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1806

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	0.870	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.130	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.130	4.000	0.870	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.181	0.250	0.319	0.250
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.565	1.000	1.435	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.400	0.247	0.100
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	1.000	0.565	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.264	0.250	0.486	0.500
predicted_SO	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	0.000	0.043	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.130	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.195	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.004
predicted_H	0.581	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.195	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.309	0.001
predicted_H	0.578	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.021
predicted_R	0.450	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.306	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.936	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1333	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.60	23	-	72.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	22.000	0.1806	0.2532	0.2639	0.1806	0.0139	0.0833	0.0972	0.3056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3060
predicted_AVG	0.2019
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	0.6680
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2739
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.2993
predicted_SO	0.9070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.1190	0.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1300	3.3060	3.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2019	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3150	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6680	0.5810	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2739	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.4870	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3570	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2993	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	0.9070	0.9385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.181

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3006

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	1.000	-0.239	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.761	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.761	6.000	0.239	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.333	-0.051	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.130	2.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.196	0.000	0.804	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.286	-0.136	-0.036
predicted_R	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.630	1.000	0.370	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.848	1.000	1.152	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.532	0.500	0.468	0.500
predicted_SO	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	3.000	1.130	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.761	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.435	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.630	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.038
predicted_3B	0.025	0.003
predicted_AB	3.848	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.032
predicted_H	1.103	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.076	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.646	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.668	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.404	0.001
predicted_H	1.098	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.076	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.009
predicted_R	0.640	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.662	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.461	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.918	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3333	0.4545	0.3182	0.0000	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	14.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	0.3256	0.3617	0.4884	0.3256	0.0000	0.1395	0.0698	0.3023
season	0.60	46	-	173.000	52.000	11.000	1.000	9.000	39.000	29.000	20.000	40.000	0.3006	0.3861	0.5318	0.3006	0.0520	0.2254	0.1156	0.2312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3310
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.3007
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.0760
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.3622
predicted_R	0.6690
predicted_RBI	0.7230
predicted_SLG	0.4932
predicted_SO	0.9920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.3310	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0300	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7610	3.9710	3.8476	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3007	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4350	0.3580	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1940	1.1035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0760	0.0760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1240	0.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3622	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6300	0.6690	0.6461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7230	0.6683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4932	0.4931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.9920	0.9203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.271	1.000	-0.271	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	6.000	-0.833	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	3.000	-0.958	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.571	0.005	-0.171
predicted_R	0.854	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.854	2.000	-0.854	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.667	-0.516	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.479	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.479	2.000	-0.479	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.833	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.854	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	1.479	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.856	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.773	-0.060
predicted_H	1.023	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.396	-0.000
predicted_R	0.843	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	1.430	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.774	0.002
predicted_H	1.018	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.117	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.009
predicted_R	0.835	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.475	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.427	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	13.000	0.2750	0.3958	0.5250	0.2750	0.0500	0.0750	0.1500	0.3250
season	0.60	48	-	184.000	46.000	13.000	12.000	30.000	41.000	40.000	71.000	0.2500	0.3947	0.5163	0.2500	0.0652	0.1630	0.2174	0.3859

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8890
predicted_AVG	0.2714
predicted_BB	0.6880
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3957
predicted_R	0.8270
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4921
predicted_SO	1.3610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2710	0.3050	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8890	3.8563	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2714	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8330	0.6880	0.7727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0550	1.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1830	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3957	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8540	0.8270	0.8428	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4790	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4921	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4790	1.3610	1.4299	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 27

All-history rows before 20260519: 27

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	1.000	-0.185	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.963	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.963	5.000	1.037	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.200	0.000	0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.333	-0.094	-0.083
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.400	-0.062	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.963	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.016	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	0.014
predicted_H	0.666	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.136	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.464	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.016	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.348	0.001
predicted_H	0.663	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.024
predicted_R	0.444	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.135	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.463	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.2308	0.3750	0.3846	0.2308	0.0000	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1724	0.2500	0.2414	0.1724	0.0000	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.60	27	-	80.000	20.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	9.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3441	0.3125	0.2500	0.0375	0.1125	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1030
predicted_AVG	0.2340
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.1470
predicted_SLG	0.3330
predicted_SO	0.4980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.2290	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9630	3.1030	3.0160	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3710	0.3474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7260	0.6664	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.3950	0.4484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1470	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.4980	0.4644	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	40.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B-P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.043	6.000	-0.043	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.237	0.500
predicted_BB	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.362	1.000	-0.362	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.064	0.000	0.936	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	0.851	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.143	0.176	0.357
predicted_R	0.638	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	0.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.532	0.000	0.468	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.437	0.000	0.813	1.250
predicted_SO	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.830	2.000	-0.830	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.362	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.830	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.089	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.033
predicted_H	1.016	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.626	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.584	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.089	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.330	0.001
predicted_H	1.011	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.181	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.006
predicted_R	0.620	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.579	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.853	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.043

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2174	0.2500	0.3913	0.2174	0.0435	0.1304	0.0435	0.2609
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.3256	0.3261	0.6744	0.3256	0.0930	0.2558	0.0233	0.1860
season	0.60	47	-	190.000	50.000	12.000	7.000	25.000	30.000	17.000	39.000	0.2632	0.3238	0.4368	0.2632	0.0368	0.1316	0.0895	0.2053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1550
predicted_AVG	0.2637
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3090
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.6330
predicted_SLG	0.4653
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.2450	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0430	4.1550	4.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2637	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3620	0.2820	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0960	1.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1960	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.6080	0.6256	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6330	0.5843	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4653	0.4651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8300	0.8890	0.8544	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.3480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.677	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.935	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.677	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.935	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.710	-0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.002
predicted_H	0.944	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.163	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.019
predicted_R	0.616	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.387	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.942	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.2286	0.2000	0.0000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3143
season	0.60	31	-	115.000	34.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	21.000	5.000	29.000	0.2957	0.3306	0.4087	0.2957	0.0261	0.1217	0.0435	0.2522

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.2649
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3040
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3624
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1460	0.1357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7090	3.7096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1660	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9820	0.9443	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0700	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3040	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6770	0.5350	0.6214	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4060	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3624	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9350	0.9580	0.9440	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.141	0.333
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.193	0.500
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.215	0.000	0.118	0.333
predicted_SO	0.775	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	1.000	-0.775	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.025	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.212	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.005
predicted_3B	0.028	0.003
predicted_AB	3.259	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.523	-0.002
predicted_H	0.462	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.259	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.524	0.001
predicted_H	0.459	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.013	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.021
predicted_R	0.407	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.243	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.179	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0625	0.2105	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	0.1034	0.2500	0.1724	0.1035	0.0690	0.2069	0.3103
season	0.60	40	-	130.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	17.000	21.000	31.000	0.1923	0.3072	0.2154	0.1923	0.1077	0.1615	0.2385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.2730
predicted_AVG	0.1642
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.5380
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2811
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2123
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0250	0.0380	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0330	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2730	3.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1642	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.5210	0.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5380	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0170	0.0128	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2811	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.3900	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2820	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2120	0.2123	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.8530	0.8064	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Foster Griffin (656492) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.222	9.000	-0.222	-7.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.444	7.000	0.556	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.589	4.100	0.411	1.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.444	7.000	0.556	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.100	13.000	21.000	11.000	30.000	5.000	3.8571	1.0549	0.4286	0.6923	0.3626	0.9890	0.1648
last_10	0.35	9	51.000	20.000	40.000	18.000	49.000	8.000	3.5294	1.1373	0.3922	0.7843	0.3529	0.9608	0.1569
season	0.20	9	51.000	20.000	40.000	18.000	49.000	8.000	3.5294	1.1373	0.3922	0.7843	0.3529	0.9608	0.1569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1650
predicted_ER	2.5690
predicted_ERA	3.9065
predicted_H	4.7530
predicted_HR	0.8910
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.7310
predicted_WHIP	1.1689

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.1650	1.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.5690	2.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9065	3.9065	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.7530	4.8767	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8910	0.4447	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.7310	5.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1689	1.1689	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	9
Pitching_ERA	3.53
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	9
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656492
playerID	656492
playerName	Foster Griffin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.929	1.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.871	1.000	-0.771	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.643	2.000	0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	1.0345	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	18.200	5.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	2.4107	1.0714	0.2679	0.8571	0.2143	0.9107	0.0536
season	0.20	14	29.000	10.000	27.000	6.000	23.000	3.000	3.1034	1.1379	0.3448	0.9310	0.2069	0.7931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_ER	0.5580
predicted_ERA	2.9710
predicted_H	1.5560
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6000
predicted_WHIP	1.2089

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4870	0.7674	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5580	0.7996	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9710	2.9710	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5560	1.7986	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6000	1.8186	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2089	1.2089	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	2.000	0.189	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	0.000	1.053	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	5.0625	1.6875	0.5625	0.9375	0.7500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.1000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	20.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	3.8571	1.4464	0.4286	1.0714	0.3750	0.9643	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.4880
predicted_ERA	4.3931
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8910
predicted_WHIP	1.4264

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4520	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4880	0.1987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3931	4.3931	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9740	0.3966	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8910	1.5484	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4264	1.4264	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.783	1.000	-0.783	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.770	1.000	-0.570	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.696	1.000	0.304	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1000	0.0000	0.9000	1.2000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.7500	0.7500	0.8571	0.0000
season	0.20	23	21.200	7.000	18.000	14.000	16.000	3.000	2.9077	1.4769	0.3231	0.8308	0.6462	0.7385	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_ER	0.2380
predicted_ERA	2.8515
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6340
predicted_WHIP	1.5244

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4760	0.7785	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2380	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8515	2.8515	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6340	0.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5244	1.5244	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_NYM@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.100	-0.833	-1.100
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	1.083	1.000	-1.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	0.9375	0.9375	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.8214	0.2143	1.0714	0.7500	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	18	19.200	6.000	20.000	14.000	19.000	2.000	2.7458	1.7288	0.3051	1.0170	0.7119	0.9661	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.2480
predicted_ERA	3.5737
predicted_H	0.6040
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6290
predicted_WHIP	1.5407

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1486	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2480	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5737	3.5737	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6040	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6290	0.8469	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5407	1.5407	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260519_OAK@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5733900000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.42660999999999993, "away_win_probability": 0.5733900000000001, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 3 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 3 LAA", "confidence": 0.5733900000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 3 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	OAK 5 - 3 LAA	OAK	0.573	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	OAK 5 - 4 LAA	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away OAK	5-5	0.500	4.70	3.90	8	2L	average	average
Home LAA	2-8	0.200	2.40	6.40	-40	6L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away OAK	23-23	0.500	-13	-0.283	True
Home LAA	16-31	0.340	-60	-1.277	True
Signal	-	-	-0.994	-1.233	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target OAK	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized OAK	32	9	3	0	3	1	9
Player finalized LAA	34	8	2	0	2	2	8
Player model fractional OAK	31.83	7.91	3.85	1.18	4.31	3.49	7.52
Player model fractional LAA	32.00	6.30	3.27	0.96	3.11	3.21	8.16
Simulation box OAK	35	8	5	3	5	3	8
Simulation box LAA	36	9	4	3	4	2	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away OAK	Starter	Jacob Lopez	4.10	3	5	5	0	5.05	1.49	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	1	0	1	4.08	1.26	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	1	0	1	1	0	5.82	1.38	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.26	1.10	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1.10	1	1	2	1	2.88	1.53	True
Home LAA	Starter	Reid Detmers	5.10	3	6	5	1	4.59	1.35	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.10	0	0	0	1	3.70	1.33	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	2	1	3	1	3.07	0.95	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	1	0	1	0	0	4.31	1.29	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: OAK

Jonah Heim (641680) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 3

All-history rows before 20260519: 3

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0833

Diff (system - data): 0.1127

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1127. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.083	0.250	0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.083	0.250	0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.083	0.250	0.417	0.250
predicted_SO	0.533	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.533	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.476	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	-0.018
predicted_H	0.690	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.318	0.002
predicted_H	0.707	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.003
predicted_R	0.314	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.567	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.278)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.1905	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2564	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.1667	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.60	15	-	51.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.1961	0.2632	0.3333	0.1961	0.0196	0.1569	0.0980	0.1569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2360
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.2673
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.3668
predicted_SO	0.6430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.2360	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6170	3.4758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2830	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7640	0.6898	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1060	0.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2673	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3630	0.3005	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6070	0.5504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3668	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5330	0.6430	0.5714	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	641680
playerID	641680
playerName	Jonah Heim
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.3350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.119	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.119	4.000	0.881	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.335	0.250	0.065	0.150
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.381	1.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	1.714	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.400	0.004	0.000
predicted_R	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.762	0.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	1.357	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.506	1.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.601	0.250	0.999	1.350
predicted_SO	0.929	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.119	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.762	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.506	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.077	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	0.013
predicted_H	1.265	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.199	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.386	-0.000
predicted_R	0.738	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.506	0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.077	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.001
predicted_BB	0.421	0.003
predicted_H	1.297	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.204	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.004
predicted_R	0.770	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.013
predicted_SO	0.864	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.119

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4130	0.5128	0.3333	0.0513	0.2308	0.1282	0.1795
season	0.60	42	-	173.000	58.000	10.000	12.000	27.000	32.000	17.000	39.000	0.3353	0.3958	0.6012	0.3353	0.0694	0.1561	0.0983	0.2254

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.3165
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	1.2720
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.3858
predicted_R	0.7030
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.5061
predicted_SO	0.7860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1640	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1190	4.0180	4.0775	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3165	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.4380	0.4185	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.2720	1.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1980	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3858	0.3859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7620	0.7030	0.7378	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6230	0.6212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5060	0.5061	0.5060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.7860	0.8703	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.335

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.091	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.091	3.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.079	0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	-0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.155	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.043
predicted_H	0.702	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.369	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.556	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.155	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.324	0.002
predicted_H	0.720	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.012
predicted_R	0.385	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.202	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.552	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3571	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2812	0.3030	0.3125	0.2812	0.0000	0.0312	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.60	22	-	68.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3289	0.3088	0.2500	0.0147	0.0735	0.1177	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2660
predicted_AVG	0.2580
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3123
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.3410
predicted_SO	0.5760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.1130	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0910	3.2660	3.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2480	0.3214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8430	0.7019	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3123	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3780	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2330	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3410	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.5760	0.5564	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 38

All-history rows before 20260519: 38

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	-0.099	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.250	-0.126	0.000
predicted_SO	0.447	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.447	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.474	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	-0.003
predicted_H	0.765	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.493	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.315	0.002
predicted_H	0.784	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.048	0.000
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.021
predicted_R	0.347	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.490	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2222	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.0606	0.0606	0.2424
season	0.60	38	-	133.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	12.000	12.000	17.000	0.2857	0.3490	0.3759	0.2857	0.0075	0.1053	0.0902	0.1278

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.2421
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3114
predicted_R	0.3580
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3288
predicted_SO	0.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.1990	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4340	3.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2421	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3080	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8320	0.7649	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3114	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.3580	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3630	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4470	0.5630	0.4935	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Colby Thomas (687515) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 7

All-history rows before 20260519: 7

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	4.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.500	-0.318	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.750	-0.500	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.235	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.009
predicted_H	0.872	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.811	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.279	0.002
predicted_H	0.894	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.141	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.002
predicted_R	0.344	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.456	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	7	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3750	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.60	7	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.3182	0.3750	0.5000	0.3182	0.0454	0.0909	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4630
predicted_AVG	0.2819
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3362
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.4740
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1850	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.4630	3.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2819	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2560	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9760	0.8720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1550	0.1372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3362	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4370	0.3294	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3540	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4740	0.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.6980	0.8113	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687515
playerID	687515
playerName	Colby Thomas
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.059	0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.300	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.635	1.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.439	-0.028
predicted_H	0.749	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.592	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.442	0.003
predicted_H	0.767	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.003
predicted_R	0.343	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.618	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.265	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.4054	0.2162	0.0541	0.1622	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.60	30	-	115.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	10.000	14.000	40.000	0.1913	0.2748	0.3652	0.1913	0.0522	0.1826	0.1217	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.2066
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2801
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.6260
predicted_SLG	0.3832
predicted_SO	1.1830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1150	0.0860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8330	3.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2066	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3960	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7920	0.7485	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1860	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2801	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3210	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6260	0.5921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3832	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.1830	1.2737	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2471

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	3.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.333	0.003	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.500	-0.054	-0.250
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	0.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.333	-0.221	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.573	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.003
predicted_H	0.806	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.072	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	3.573	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.255	0.002
predicted_H	0.826	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.072	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.021
predicted_R	0.597	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.847	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.60	24	-	85.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	14.000	6.000	21.000	0.2471	0.3043	0.4706	0.2471	0.0588	0.1529	0.0706	0.2471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0230
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0720
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3032
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.4276
predicted_SO	0.8170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0810	0.0822	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0230	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.6230	3.5726	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2580	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8650	0.8059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0720	0.0720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1860	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5530	0.5717	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4380	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4276	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8170	0.8531	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 5

All-history rows before 20260519: 5

System season_avg: 0.3530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.353	0.250	0.147	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.250	0.132	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	0.397	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.467	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	0.013
predicted_H	0.924	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.215	0.002
predicted_H	0.948	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.014
predicted_R	0.082	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.3529	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.3529	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
season	0.60	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.3529	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6460
predicted_AVG	0.2864
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.3793
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1070	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6460	3.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2864	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2490	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0440	0.9244	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3297	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2910	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4450	0.3903	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3793	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8330	0.8089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.353

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	1.000	-0.196	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.587	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.587	5.000	0.413	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.200	-0.267	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.957	0.000	0.043	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	-0.957	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.427	0.200	-0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.563	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.400	-0.479	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.370	2.000	-0.370	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.587	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.957	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.433	-
predicted_R	0.630	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.563	-
predicted_SO	1.370	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.015
predicted_3B	0.026	0.004
predicted_AB	3.542	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.919	-0.038
predicted_H	0.939	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.143	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.433	0.000
predicted_R	0.643	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.726	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.563	0.000
predicted_SO	1.331	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.926	0.006
predicted_H	0.963	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.238	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.423	-0.010
predicted_R	0.671	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.548	-0.015
predicted_SO	1.322	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2667	0.5000	0.7333	0.2667	0.1333	0.2667	0.3333	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	0.3235	0.4773	0.7647	0.3235	0.0882	0.3235	0.2353	0.3235
season	0.60	46	-	165.000	44.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	29.000	29.000	44.000	63.000	0.2667	0.4265	0.4788	0.2667	0.0485	0.1758	0.2667	0.3818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.4780
predicted_AVG	0.2739
predicted_BB	0.8660
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.1430
predicted_HR	0.2370
predicted_OBP	0.4332
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.7350
predicted_SLG	0.5631
predicted_SO	1.2760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.2330	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0310	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5870	3.4780	3.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2739	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9570	0.8660	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9520	0.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1430	0.1430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2370	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4330	0.4332	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6300	0.6610	0.6428	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7350	0.7262	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5630	0.5631	0.5630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3700	1.2760	1.3311	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Lopez (682052) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	3.000	3.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.889	2.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.667	4.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.378	5.000	-0.278	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.333	2.000	1.667	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.000	13.000	23.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	5.3182	1.5000	0.5909	1.0454	0.4546	0.6364	0.3182
last_10	0.35	9	40.100	26.000	42.000	27.000	30.000	10.000	5.8017	1.7107	0.6446	1.0413	0.6694	0.7438	0.2479
season	0.20	9	40.100	26.000	42.000	27.000	30.000	10.000	5.8017	1.7107	0.6446	1.0413	0.6694	0.7438	0.2479

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1960
predicted_ER	2.5630
predicted_ERA	5.0459
predicted_H	4.6010
predicted_HR	1.0690
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.5440
predicted_WHIP	1.4867

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1960	1.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.5630	2.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0459	5.0459	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.6010	4.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0690	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.5440	4.2733	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4867	1.4867	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.80
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	682052
playerID	682052
playerName	Jacob Lopez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.471	2.000	0.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	1.0345	0.4138	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0800	0.3000	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_ER	0.4260
predicted_ERA	4.0812
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7680
predicted_WHIP	1.2599

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2860	0.7175	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4260	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0812	4.0812	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8980	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7680	0.9082	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2599	1.2599	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.238	2.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	2.000	0.186	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.048	2.000	-0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	6.000	8.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	9.5294	1.5882	1.0588	1.4118	0.1765	1.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	6.3000	1.2000	0.7000	1.0000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	21	19.200	15.000	26.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	6.8644	1.6271	0.7627	1.3220	0.3051	1.1186	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_ER	0.6470
predicted_ERA	5.8187
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0600
predicted_WHIP	1.3799

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3050	0.1259	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6470	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8187	5.8187	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0750	1.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0600	1.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3799	1.3799	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.86
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.524	2.000	0.476	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.229	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	2.000	0.048	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	2.6129	0.5806	0.2903	0.3871	0.1935	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	20	21.100	4.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.4219	0.3281	0.9375	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3620
predicted_ERA	3.2585
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0060
predicted_WHIP	1.0965

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3620	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2585	3.2585	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7860	0.9099	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0750	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0060	1.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0965	1.0965	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.792	1.000	1.208	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	1.000	0.417	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	2.000	11.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.5000	0.6818	1.5000	0.1364
season	0.20	24	22.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	2.000	2.4545	1.6364	0.2727	0.8636	0.7727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.2240
predicted_ERA	2.8838
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.5263

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3130	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2240	1.2464	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8838	2.8838	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7520	2.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0700	1.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8150	0.9215	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5263	1.5263	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	2
BF	7
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: LAA

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 30

All-history rows before 20260519: 30

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2547

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	4.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.245	0.500
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.181	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	1.633	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.816	1.250
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	1.000	-0.933	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.563	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	-0.006
predicted_H	0.754	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.936	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.563	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.224	-0.003
predicted_H	0.738	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.119	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.037
predicted_R	0.329	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.946	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.2632
season	0.60	30	-	106.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	10.000	7.000	28.000	0.2547	0.3190	0.4340	0.2547	0.0472	0.1038	0.0660	0.2641

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2237
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.2909
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.3852
predicted_SO	0.9400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1160	0.1264	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.6100	3.5630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2237	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.2170	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8080	0.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1540	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2909	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3570	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3840	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3852	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.9400	0.9357	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2246

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.896	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.896	3.000	0.104	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.333	-0.225	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.500	-0.136	-0.300
predicted_R	0.646	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.646	1.000	-0.646	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	2.000	-0.458	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	1.333	-0.412	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.417	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.417	1.000	0.583	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.896	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.646	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	1.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.833	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.558	-0.025
predicted_H	0.918	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.163	-
predicted_HR	0.218	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.626	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000
predicted_SO	1.365	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.552	-0.006
predicted_H	0.899	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.163	0.000
predicted_HR	0.214	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.027
predicted_R	0.601	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.501	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.380	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.896

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3125	0.4762	0.6875	0.3125	0.1250	0.2500	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	0.2368	0.3409	0.4211	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.60	48	-	187.000	42.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	22.000	31.000	28.000	68.000	0.2246	0.3364	0.4118	0.2246	0.0428	0.1177	0.1497	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2446
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.1630
predicted_HR	0.2160
predicted_OBP	0.3581
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.4601
predicted_SO	1.2920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1340	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0120	0.0173	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8960	3.7450	3.8334	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2446	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.5220	0.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9160	0.9183	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1630	0.1630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2160	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3581	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6460	0.5970	0.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5230	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4601	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4170	1.2920	1.3651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	3.000	-0.953	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	-0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.279	0.000	0.721	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_R	0.349	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.349	0.000	-0.349	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	-0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	2.000	-0.744	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.279	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.349	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.923	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.011
predicted_H	0.898	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.351	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.802	0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.003
predicted_H	0.879	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.016
predicted_R	0.337	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.278	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.810	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2750	0.2632	0.2368	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.60	43	-	170.000	43.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	15.000	12.000	32.000	0.2529	0.3027	0.3647	0.2529	0.0176	0.1177	0.0706	0.1882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.2416
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2892
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.3251
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1610	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.8790	3.9227	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2416	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2790	0.2520	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9380	0.8978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0530	0.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2892	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3490	0.3530	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3030	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.8850	0.8017	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2335

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.553	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	3.000	1.447	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.166	0.400
predicted_BB	0.872	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.872	0.000	-0.872	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.830	0.000	1.170	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.234	0.000	0.766	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.000	0.007	0.400
predicted_R	0.702	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.702	0.000	0.298	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	0.000	0.511	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.527	1.000
predicted_SO	1.128	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.128	0.000	-1.128	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.553	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.872	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.702	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.128	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.572	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.782	-0.090
predicted_H	0.648	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.598	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	1.103	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.572	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.774	-0.009
predicted_H	0.634	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.010
predicted_R	0.575	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.115	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.1111	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	0.1389	0.2439	0.1944	0.1389	0.0000	0.0000	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.60	47	-	167.000	39.000	7.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	41.000	53.000	0.2335	0.3934	0.4731	0.2335	0.0659	0.1377	0.2455	0.3174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6000
predicted_AVG	0.1871
predicted_BB	0.6550
predicted_H	0.6740
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3136
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.3160
predicted_SLG	0.3513
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1490	0.1710	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5530	3.6000	3.5724	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1871	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8720	0.6550	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6740	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1390	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3136	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7020	0.4500	0.5978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3160	0.3066	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3513	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1280	1.0680	1.1032	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jose Siri (642350) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.709	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.507	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.224	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.136	0.136

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.709	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.077
predicted_BB	0.044	-0.001
predicted_H	0.496	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.196	-0.121
predicted_R	0.076	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.216	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.141
predicted_SO	0.138	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.60	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2602
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.4026
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1660	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6890	2.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2602	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.9600	0.5067	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1110	0.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3174	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4510	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.4320	0.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4026	0.4029	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7750	0.1362	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	642350
playerID	642350
playerName	Jose Siri
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	5.000	0.429	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.200	-0.003	0.050
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	-0.083	0.050
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.200	-0.150	0.050
predicted_SO	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.350	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.760	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.016
predicted_H	0.772	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.437	0.087

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.005
predicted_H	0.756	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.012
predicted_R	0.329	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.419	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.442	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1389	0.2439	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.1111	0.1389	0.1667
season	0.60	20	-	75.000	19.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.2533	0.3294	0.4000	0.2533	0.0267	0.1333	0.1200	0.0933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2188
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.2954
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.3620
predicted_SO	0.5820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1740	0.2216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7780	3.7605	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2188	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.4080	0.4343	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8270	0.7725	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1200	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2954	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3280	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4640	0.4364	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3620	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3500	0.5820	0.4367	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2568

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	3.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.007	0.250
predicted_BB	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.979	0.000	0.021	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.612	1.000
predicted_SO	0.958	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	1.000	0.042	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.146	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.724	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.186	0.040
predicted_H	0.767	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.085	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.519	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.002
predicted_H	0.751	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.085	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.044
predicted_R	0.293	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.498	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.041
predicted_SO	1.005	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.1250	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3243	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0938	0.3125
season	0.60	48	-	183.000	47.000	6.000	6.000	27.000	16.000	7.000	46.000	0.2568	0.3030	0.3880	0.2568	0.0328	0.1475	0.0382	0.2514

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2202
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0850
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.2833
predicted_R	0.2650
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.3737
predicted_SO	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.2010	0.1563	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.5980	3.7239	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2202	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1460	0.2440	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7920	0.7673	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0850	0.0850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1160	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2833	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2650	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5310	0.5186	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3737	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	1.0460	0.9942	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	3.000	0.386	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_R	0.477	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.477	0.000	-0.477	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.000	-0.171	0.250
predicted_SO	1.409	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.409	3.000	-0.409	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	1.409	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.041
predicted_H	0.645	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	1.441	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.004
predicted_H	0.632	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.052	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.006
predicted_R	0.422	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.360	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.457	0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.5556
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	17.000	0.1351	0.1795	0.2432	0.1351	0.0000	0.0000	0.0541	0.4595
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	34.000	9.000	8.000	28.000	21.000	19.000	62.000	0.2138	0.3081	0.4214	0.2138	0.0503	0.1761	0.1195	0.3899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6520
predicted_AVG	0.1868
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2597
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3529
predicted_SO	1.4870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2690	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.6520	3.6295	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1868	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3320	0.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6820	0.6454	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1110	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2597	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.3840	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3960	0.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3529	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4090	1.4870	1.4409	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 27

All-history rows before 20260519: 27

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1932

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.259	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.259	3.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.307	0.500
predicted_BB	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	1.370	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.199	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.261	0.500
predicted_SO	0.852	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	1.148	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.259	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.287	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.048
predicted_H	0.531	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.322	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.287	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.004
predicted_H	0.520	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.011
predicted_R	0.310	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.199	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.203	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.862	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2059	0.1562	0.1562	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3438
season	0.60	27	-	88.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	23.000	0.1932	0.3010	0.2386	0.1932	0.0114	0.0909	0.1250	0.2614

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.1794
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2509
predicted_R	0.3050
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.2347
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0540	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2590	3.3320	3.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1794	0.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.2820	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5980	0.5315	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2509	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3050	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2350	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2347	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.8540	0.8528	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Reid Detmers (672282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	2.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	3.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.000	6.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.222	5.200	-0.122	-0.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.889	6.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	15.000	27.000	11.000	27.000	3.000	5.0625	1.4250	0.5625	1.0125	0.4125	1.0125	0.1125
last_10	0.35	9	49.100	24.000	45.000	17.000	53.000	4.000	4.3784	1.2568	0.4865	0.9122	0.3446	1.0743	0.0811
season	0.20	9	49.100	24.000	45.000	17.000	53.000	4.000	4.3784	1.2568	0.4865	0.9122	0.3446	1.0743	0.0811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0460
predicted_ER	2.7220
predicted_ERA	4.5936
predicted_H	5.1280
predicted_HR	0.5930
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3640
predicted_WHIP	1.3451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0460	1.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7220	2.8612	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5936	4.5936	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.1280	5.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.5930	1.2977	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.3640	5.6826	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3451	1.3451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	6
HR	2
BF	22
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672282
playerID	672282
playerName	Reid Detmers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 16

All-history rows before 20260519: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.812	2.000	0.188	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.244	0.100	-0.144	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.812	0.000	-1.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	1.5882	1.4118	0.1765	0.5294	0.8823	1.4118
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	6.000	8.000	9.000	16.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	0.6316	0.7105	1.2632
season	0.20	16	22.000	11.000	14.000	13.000	29.000	4.5000	1.2273	0.5000	0.6364	0.5909	1.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7050
predicted_ER	0.5200
predicted_ERA	3.7023
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4310
predicted_WHIP	1.3328

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7050	0.8748	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5200	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7023	3.7023	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9790	0.4154	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4310	0.6072	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3328	1.3328	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 16

All-history rows before 20260519: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	1.562	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.206	2.000	-0.106	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	1.000	1.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	0.0000	1.2857	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4667	0.1333	1.0000	0.1333
season	0.20	16	22.100	7.000	12.000	10.000	24.000	2.000	2.8209	0.9851	0.3134	0.5373	0.4478	1.0746	0.0896

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_ER	0.4550
predicted_ERA	3.0715
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3890
predicted_WHIP	0.9502

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3530	0.7244	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4550	1.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0715	3.0715	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9140	2.1115	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1730	0.6477	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3890	1.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9502	0.9502	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_OAK@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 4

All-history rows before 20260519: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
last_10	0.35	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
season	0.20	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.4790
predicted_ERA	4.3090
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0380
predicted_WHIP	1.2886

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.1026	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4790	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3090	4.3090	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9240	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0380	1.0107	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2886	1.2886	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260519_PIT@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 STL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 3 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PIT 2 - 4 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PIT 3 - 4 STL	STL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PIT 2 - 4 STL	STL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PIT	4-6	0.400	4.80	5.30	-5	3L	average	weak
Home STL	6-4	0.600	3.40	3	4	1L	cold	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away PIT	24-23	0.511	18	0.383	True
Home STL	27-19	0.587	3	0.065	True
Signal	-	-	-0.318	-0.203	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-30	STL @ PIT	10 - 5	STL	5	blowout
2026-04-29	STL @ PIT	5 - 4	STL	1	close
2026-04-28	STL @ PIT	11 - 7	STL	4	blowout
2026-04-27	STL @ PIT	4 - 2	STL	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PIT	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target STL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PIT	34	8	3	0	3	2	9
Player finalized STL	34	9	3	0	2	3	9
Player model fractional PIT	33.76	7.53	4.19	0.95	3.86	3.47	9.07
Player model fractional STL	33.26	7.83	4.07	1.06	3.89	2.91	7.92
Simulation box PIT	30	3	2	2	2	1	12
Simulation box STL	32	8	4	1	4	3	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PIT	Starter	Mitch Keller	6	3	5	7	2	4.02	1.12	True
Away PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1.20	0	0	0	1	4.23	1.23	True
Away PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	0.10	1	0	1	0	4.87	1.42	True
Home STL	Starter	Matthew Liberatore	5	2	8	3	1	4.38	1.42	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1.20	0	2	0	0	3.96	1.42	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	1	0	1	0	0	3.36	1.21	True
Home STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.10	0	1	0	0	4.15	1.21	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PIT

Jhostynxon Garcia (691373) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.517	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.868	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.955	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	0.868	-
predicted_HR	0.115	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.429	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.955	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.001
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	-0.016
predicted_H	0.878	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.003
predicted_R	0.468	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.939	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.001
predicted_H	0.865	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.115	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.005
predicted_R	0.456	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.425	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.942	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3052
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3961
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1820	0.1753	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.8010	3.5617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2443	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.2820	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8680	0.9290	0.8776	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1150	0.1230	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3052	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4920	0.4684	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4290	0.4750	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.3961	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9550	0.8510	0.9386	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2577

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.622	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.622	4.000	0.378	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.756	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	0.911	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.000	-0.140	0.250
predicted_R	0.644	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	0.000	0.356	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.578	0.000	0.422	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_SO	0.978	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	0.000	0.022	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.622	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.756	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.005
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.686	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.658	-0.098
predicted_H	0.931	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.597	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	-0.124

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.655	-0.002
predicted_H	0.917	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.011
predicted_R	0.581	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.467	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.857	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.2895	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526
season	0.60	45	-	163.000	42.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	26.000	29.000	34.000	44.000	0.2577	0.3900	0.3926	0.2577	0.0245	0.1595	0.2086	0.2699

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.7770
predicted_AVG	0.2618
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3509
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.3648
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1450	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0260	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6220	3.7770	3.6858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2618	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7560	0.5170	0.6576	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9890	0.9308	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3509	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.5290	0.5966	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5080	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3648	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	0.6770	0.8540	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 38

All-history rows before 20260519: 38

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3243

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.895	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.895	4.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.250	-0.324	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.263	1.000	-1.263	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.250	-0.383	-0.250
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.250	-0.372	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.711	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	1.289	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.895	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.883	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	0.002
predicted_H	1.140	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.883	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.001
predicted_H	1.123	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.019
predicted_R	0.425	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.412	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.674	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.895

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.3243	0.2703	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351
season	0.60	38	-	148.000	48.000	7.000	19.000	17.000	11.000	27.000	0.3243	0.3827	0.3716	0.3243	0.1284	0.0743	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8650
predicted_AVG	0.2986
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3579
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3638
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1890	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8950	3.8650	3.8829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2930	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1540	1.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4210	0.4365	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4270	0.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3638	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.6130	0.6714	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 14

All-history rows before 20260519: 14

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.125	0.333
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.064	0.333
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.417	0.667
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.434	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	0.007
predicted_H	0.734	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.173	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.869	0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.434	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.220	-0.001
predicted_H	0.723	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.037
predicted_R	0.169	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.238	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.873	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3030	0.2903	0.2581	0.0645	0.0645	0.2903
season	0.60	14	-	48.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.2500	0.2083	0.0417	0.0625	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2376
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2948
predicted_R	0.2320
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.3131
predicted_SO	0.8930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1290	0.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.4440	3.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2376	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2350	0.2212	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8180	0.7339	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2320	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2710	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3131	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8930	0.8693	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	4.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.313	0.000	-0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	1.216	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.216	4.000	0.784	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.216	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.932	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	0.013
predicted_H	0.657	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000
predicted_SO	1.247	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.932	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.002
predicted_H	0.648	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.151	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.023
predicted_R	0.378	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.252	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	14.000	0.1622	0.3111	0.3514	0.1622	0.0541	0.0811	0.1892	0.3784
season	0.60	37	-	147.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	15.000	45.000	0.1837	0.2683	0.3129	0.1837	0.0340	0.1088	0.1020	0.3061

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8710
predicted_AVG	0.1762
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.2681
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.3239
predicted_SO	1.2930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1000	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	3.8710	3.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1762	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.4370	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6820	0.6570	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1560	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2681	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.4040	0.3885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4100	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3239	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2160	1.2930	1.2472	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2606

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.273	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.273	4.000	-1.273	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.325	-0.250
predicted_R	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.250	-0.468	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.614	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.614	2.000	0.386	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.795	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.614	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.216	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.008
predicted_H	1.003	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.764	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.588	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.607	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.001
predicted_H	0.988	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.027
predicted_R	0.744	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.573	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.613	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.273

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	17.000	0.2927	0.3830	0.4390	0.2927	0.0244	0.0976	0.1220	0.4146
season	0.60	44	-	188.000	49.000	9.000	10.000	32.000	35.000	16.000	71.000	0.2606	0.3252	0.4681	0.2606	0.0532	0.1702	0.0851	0.3777

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1350
predicted_AVG	0.2535
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3236
predicted_R	0.7190
predicted_RBI	0.6130
predicted_SLG	0.4158
predicted_SO	1.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2180	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2730	4.1350	4.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2535	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.3840	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0490	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3236	0.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7950	0.7190	0.7636	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6130	0.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4158	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6140	1.5960	1.6066	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	4.000	-1.900	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.575	0.000	0.425	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.975	1.000	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.667	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.319	0.417
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.775	0.000	0.225	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.542	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.558	0.500	1.442	1.500
predicted_SO	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	1.000	-1.050	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.575	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.542	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.028	0.002
predicted_AB	3.915	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	-0.055
predicted_H	0.869	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.285	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.692	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000
predicted_SO	1.073	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.915	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.518	-0.002
predicted_H	0.857	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.282	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.001
predicted_R	0.611	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.674	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.510	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.077	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.5000	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.2683	0.3261	0.6585	0.2683	0.0976	0.2439	0.0976	0.2927
season	0.60	40	-	156.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	12.000	31.000	26.000	23.000	42.000	0.2500	0.3481	0.5577	0.2500	0.0769	0.1987	0.1474	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.9370
predicted_AVG	0.2352
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_OBP	0.3112
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.5421
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2230	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0310	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.9370	3.9151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2352	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5750	0.4400	0.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9260	0.8692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3070	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3112	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5930	0.6267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7390	0.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5420	0.5421	0.5420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	1.1050	1.0725	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 28

All-history rows before 20260519: 28

System season_avg: 0.1410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1413

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.141	0.000	-0.141	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.679	1.000	1.321	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.247	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.679	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.314	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	0.020
predicted_H	0.415	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.000
predicted_R	0.341	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.123	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.001
predicted_H	0.409	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.213	-0.035
predicted_R	0.332	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.285	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.679	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.0667	0.2222	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.0909	0.2105	0.2727	0.0909	0.0606	0.1515	0.1515	0.2121
season	0.60	28	-	92.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	10.000	19.000	0.1413	0.2404	0.2391	0.1413	0.0217	0.0870	0.1087	0.2065

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3590
predicted_AVG	0.1450
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2475
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.2527
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0870	0.0993	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.3590	3.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1450	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4090	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.4870	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0900	0.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2470	0.2475	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3150	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3440	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2527	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6790	0.6720	0.6763	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.141

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2635

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	0.205	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.333	-0.264	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	1.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.333	-0.321	-0.333
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.333	-0.399	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.128	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.128	0.000	0.872	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	1.128	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.016
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.009
predicted_AB	3.823	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	-0.024
predicted_H	1.010	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.502	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.823	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.001
predicted_H	0.996	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.071	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.009
predicted_R	0.489	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.399	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.104	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.2500	0.2791	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.60	39	-	148.000	39.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	19.000	19.000	11.000	44.000	0.2635	0.3210	0.3986	0.2635	0.0203	0.1284	0.0743	0.2973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.8650
predicted_AVG	0.2728
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.4240
predicted_SLG	0.4029
predicted_SO	1.0590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2190	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0290	0.0421	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.8650	3.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2230	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0540	1.0099	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.5250	0.5024	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4240	0.4097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4029	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1280	1.0590	1.1001	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mitch Keller (656605) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	1.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	6.000	0.667	-3.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.667	7.000	2.333	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.800	5.200	0.200	0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.222	3.000	0.778	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	14.000	24.000	6.000	24.000	2.000	4.1087	0.9783	0.4565	0.7826	0.1956	0.7826	0.0652
last_10	0.35	9	52.200	21.000	42.000	15.000	38.000	3.000	3.5886	1.0823	0.3987	0.7975	0.2848	0.7215	0.0570
season	0.20	9	52.200	21.000	42.000	15.000	38.000	3.000	3.5886	1.0823	0.3987	0.7975	0.2848	0.7215	0.0570

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6970
predicted_ER	2.6810
predicted_ERA	4.0208
predicted_H	5.0530
predicted_HR	0.5190
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.9660
predicted_WHIP	1.1250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6970	1.8488	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.6810	3.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0208	4.0208	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	5.0530	6.5291	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5190	0.7599	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.9660	3.4804	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1250	1.1250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	112

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.59
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656605
playerID	656605
playerName	Mitch Keller
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	2.000	0.591	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	2.000	-0.273	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.455	2.000	-0.455	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.227	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	0.000	-1.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.7500	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	4.2188	1.0312	0.4688	0.7500	0.2812	0.9375	0.0000
season	0.20	22	22.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	26.000	1.000	2.4179	0.8507	0.2687	0.4478	0.4030	1.1642	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	4.2295
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8870
predicted_WHIP	1.2255

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4040	0.7461	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4700	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2295	4.2295	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8220	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8870	1.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2255	1.2255	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.876	1.000	-0.776	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	12.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	6.7500	1.8214	0.7500	1.2857	0.5357	0.6429	0.3214
season	0.20	20	19.100	8.000	15.000	9.000	12.000	3.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	0.7759	0.4655	0.6207	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	4.8680
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4820
predicted_WHIP	1.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2350	0.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3370	0.1385	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8680	4.8680	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6510	0.2675	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4820	0.7872	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4230	1.4230	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: STL

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2324

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	3.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.268	0.167
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	1.154	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.500	0.187	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	0.641	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.333	0.155	0.167
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.639	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.491	0.029
predicted_H	0.857	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	1.121	-0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.494	0.003
predicted_H	0.870	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.014
predicted_R	0.354	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.115	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.240)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	12.000	0.2857	0.4048	0.3429	0.2857	0.0000	0.0571	0.2000	0.3429
season	0.60	39	-	142.000	33.000	4.000	4.000	22.000	14.000	18.000	46.000	0.2324	0.3129	0.3451	0.2324	0.0282	0.1549	0.1268	0.3239

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.2509
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3435
predicted_R	0.3240
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3413
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1140	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.6350	3.6386	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2509	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.5350	0.4915	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9120	0.8572	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3435	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.3240	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4250	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3413	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.0360	1.1211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

César Prieto (693409) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.048
predicted_H	0.788	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.058
predicted_R	0.086	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.289	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.969	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500
season	0.60	1	-	4.000	1.000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.2155
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2693
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3495
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1620	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8250	3.9664	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2155	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8240	0.7884	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2693	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4370	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4210	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3495	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8680	0.9747	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	693409
playerID	693409
playerName	César Prieto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 36

All-history rows before 20260519: 36

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2463

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	4.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.004	0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.000	-0.131	0.250
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.731	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	0.012
predicted_H	0.882	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.180	0.001
predicted_H	0.895	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.011
predicted_R	0.447	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.743	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.2973	0.2432	0.0000	0.0541	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.60	36	-	134.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	16.000	6.000	28.000	0.2463	0.2766	0.3806	0.2463	0.0299	0.1119	0.0448	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2482
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2864
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.3589
predicted_SO	0.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1800	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.7450	3.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2482	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1980	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9300	0.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0724	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2864	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4210	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3550	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3589	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7000	0.7469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-CF
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.070	4.000	-1.070	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.053	0.083
predicted_BB	0.395	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	1.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.160	0.250
predicted_R	0.488	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.767	0.000	-0.767	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	-0.112	0.083
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.088	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	-0.053
predicted_H	1.164	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.443	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.779	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.088	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.344	0.002
predicted_H	1.182	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.008
predicted_R	0.456	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.645	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.774	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.261)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.4091	0.3636	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.3095	0.3182	0.4286	0.3095	0.0238	0.1191	0.0238	0.2143
season	0.60	43	-	175.000	49.000	11.000	6.000	33.000	21.000	17.000	32.000	0.2800	0.3402	0.4457	0.2800	0.0343	0.1886	0.0971	0.1829

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1140
predicted_AVG	0.2948
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	1.2130
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3358
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.6540
predicted_SLG	0.4298
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2270	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	4.1140	4.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.2650	0.3416	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2130	1.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3358	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.3790	0.4432	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6540	0.6281	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4298	0.4299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.8290	0.7789	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.696	4.000	-0.696	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	-0.265	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.630	0.000	0.370	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	1.000	-0.978	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.250	-0.145	0.000
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.250	-0.406	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	0.000	0.261	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.696	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.630	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.753	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	-0.077
predicted_H	0.983	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.160	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.521	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	-0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.557	0.003
predicted_H	0.998	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.160	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.003
predicted_SO	0.688	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3043	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3171	0.3556	0.3659	0.3171	0.0000	0.0732	0.0488	0.1220
season	0.60	46	-	170.000	45.000	12.000	4.000	20.000	25.000	29.000	34.000	0.2647	0.3952	0.4059	0.2647	0.0235	0.1177	0.1706	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.2687
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.1600
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3611
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3791
predicted_SO	0.6250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2310	0.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6960	3.8330	3.7526	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2687	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6300	0.4450	0.5535	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0300	0.9831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1600	0.1600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3611	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.4900	0.5211	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4130	0.3936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3791	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.6250	0.6919	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 29

All-history rows before 20260519: 29

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.379	3.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.002	0.250
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	-0.107	0.250
predicted_SO	0.931	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.931	0.000	0.069	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.379	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.138	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.931	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.388	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.000
predicted_H	0.561	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.928	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.388	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.138	0.001
predicted_H	0.570	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.201	-0.021
predicted_R	0.368	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.0909	0.1176	0.2121	0.0909	0.0303	0.0303	0.0303	0.3333
season	0.60	29	-	98.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	27.000	0.2041	0.2476	0.3571	0.2041	0.0408	0.0918	0.0408	0.2755

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4020
predicted_AVG	0.1844
predicted_BB	0.1370
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.2224
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3395
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1010	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3790	3.4020	3.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1844	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1380	0.1370	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6270	0.5612	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2224	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3780	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2920	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3395	0.3398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9310	0.9240	0.9283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 38

All-history rows before 20260519: 38

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.868	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.868	2.000	0.132	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.141	0.333
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.553	0.000	0.447	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.000	0.081	0.333
predicted_R	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.266	0.000	0.067	0.333
predicted_SO	0.842	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.868	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.342	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.914	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.201	-0.010
predicted_H	0.555	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.000
predicted_R	0.347	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.914	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.202	0.001
predicted_H	0.563	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.023
predicted_R	0.357	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.802	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538	0.0000	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2593	0.3103	0.4074	0.2593	0.0370	0.0741	0.0741	0.1852
season	0.60	38	-	109.000	21.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	8.000	32.000	0.1927	0.2521	0.2661	0.1927	0.0184	0.0642	0.0734	0.2936

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9860
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.6560
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.2687
predicted_R	0.3560
predicted_RBI	0.2760
predicted_SLG	0.3460
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0730	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8680	2.9860	2.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.1850	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6560	0.5549	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1000	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2687	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3420	0.3560	0.3475	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2760	0.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3460	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.7530	0.8072	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	4.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.182	0.000	-1.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.773	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_SO	1.136	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.773	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.933	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.046
predicted_H	1.081	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.272	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.721	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.568	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	-0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.389	0.002
predicted_H	1.098	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.275	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.002
predicted_R	0.741	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.699	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.549	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.5909	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.6098	0.2927	0.0732	0.1707	0.0732	0.2195
season	0.60	44	-	171.000	52.000	10.000	13.000	34.000	34.000	19.000	50.000	0.3041	0.3750	0.5906	0.3041	0.0760	0.1988	0.1111	0.2924

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0010
predicted_AVG	0.2886
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2890
predicted_OBP	0.3420
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.5677
predicted_SO	1.0060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2460	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	4.0010	3.9332	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2886	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3210	0.3864	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1550	1.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2890	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3420	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7730	0.6470	0.7213	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7240	0.6804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5677	0.5679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.0060	1.0826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	3.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.098	0.333
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.141	0.250
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.927	1.333
predicted_SO	0.818	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.851	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.554	0.009
predicted_H	0.841	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.245	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.708	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.557	0.003
predicted_H	0.854	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_HR	0.163	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.036
predicted_R	0.727	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.002
predicted_SO	0.834	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2105	0.4000	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	0.1842	0.3404	0.2632	0.1842	0.0263	0.1053	0.1579	0.2368
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	40.000	5.000	8.000	22.000	33.000	24.000	36.000	0.2353	0.3592	0.4059	0.2353	0.0471	0.1294	0.1412	0.2118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.2232
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.2450
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3562
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.3732
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0820	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.8330	3.8512	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2232	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.5660	0.5537	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8560	0.8407	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2450	0.2450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1630	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3562	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6470	0.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4620	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3732	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8690	0.8391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Matthew Liberatore (669461) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	4.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.889	9.000	-2.889	-6.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.144	5.000	-0.144	0.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	3.778	5.000	4.222	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	13.000	28.000	10.000	22.000	4.000	4.5000	1.4615	0.5000	1.0769	0.3846	0.8461	0.1538
last_10	0.35	9	47.000	23.000	53.000	18.000	34.000	9.000	4.4043	1.5106	0.4894	1.1277	0.3830	0.7234	0.1915
season	0.20	9	47.000	23.000	53.000	18.000	34.000	9.000	4.4043	1.5106	0.4894	1.1277	0.3830	0.7234	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0370
predicted_ER	2.5940
predicted_ERA	4.3770
predicted_H	5.5480
predicted_HR	0.8250
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.5510
predicted_WHIP	1.4221

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0370	1.5176	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.5940	2.2965	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3770	4.3770	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.5480	4.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.8250	1.4135	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.5510	6.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4221	1.4221	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	8
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669461
playerID	669461
playerName	Matthew Liberatore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.419	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.762	0.000	1.238	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	1.3846	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.8929	1.6071	0.3214	1.1786	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
season	0.20	21	19.200	8.000	15.000	10.000	16.000	3.000	3.6610	1.2712	0.4068	0.7627	0.5085	0.8136	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_ER	0.4390
predicted_ERA	3.9554
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8740
predicted_WHIP	1.4165

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3680	0.1519	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4390	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9554	3.9554	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0480	0.4324	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2100	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8740	1.5354	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4165	1.4165	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.814	1.100	0.186	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	2.000	2.7931	1.2414	0.3103	0.7241	0.5172	1.3448	0.2069
season	0.20	22	22.100	8.000	18.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.2239	1.2090	0.3582	0.8060	0.4030	0.8508	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	3.3575
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0430
predicted_WHIP	1.2144

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4030	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3730	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3575	3.3575	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8120	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0430	1.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2144	1.2144	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.22
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.936	1.000	0.164	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	22	22.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	25.000	1.000	2.4545	0.9091	0.2727	0.8182	0.0909	1.1364	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_ER	0.4610
predicted_ERA	4.1492
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0510
predicted_WHIP	1.2091

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2860	0.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4610	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1492	4.1492	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9230	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0564	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0510	1.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2091	1.2091	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260519_SF@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 ARI", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 ARI", "winner": "ARI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 4 ARI	ARI	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 3 - 4 ARI	ARI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	6-4	0.600	5	4.50	5	2W	average	average
Home ARI	5-5	0.500	3.90	3.30	6	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	20-27	0.426	-37	-0.787	True
Home ARI	22-23	0.489	-17	-0.378	True
Signal	-	-	0.409	0.504	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target ARI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	34	9	2	0	3	0	8
Player finalized ARI	35	9	5	0	6	2	8
Player model fractional SF	33.17	7.82	3.17	0.99	3.58	2.05	7.59
Player model fractional ARI	33.53	8.34	4.81	0.93	4.64	3.48	7.06
Simulation box SF	31	4	3	1	3	0	7
Simulation box ARI	31	7	4	0	4	6	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Landen Roupp	5.10	1	3	3	4	4.13	1.26	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	2	0	1	0	1	3.94	1.30	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	0.20	3	2	4	1	3.24	1.14	True
Home ARI	Starter	Ryne Nelson	5	2	3	4	0	5.59	1.25	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1	0	1	0	0	3.86	1.24	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	1	1	0	0	0	4.63	1.38	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	0	1	0	0	4.40	1.34	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1	0	2	0	0	4.17	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2237

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.304	5.000	-0.304	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.739	0.000	-0.739	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	1.000	-0.739	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.304	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.304	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.015
predicted_3B	0.052	0.009
predicted_AB	3.385	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.017
predicted_H	0.639	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.000
predicted_R	0.301	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.052	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.003
predicted_H	0.629	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.247	-0.033
predicted_R	0.292	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.775	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.2632	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	0.1471	0.2564	0.2353	0.1471	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
season	0.60	23	-	76.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	17.000	0.2237	0.2892	0.3553	0.2237	0.0263	0.0921	0.0790	0.2237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0660
predicted_AB	3.5230
predicted_AVG	0.2005
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	0.7060
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2795
predicted_R	0.2950
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.3350
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.1280	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0660	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3040	3.5230	3.3855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2005	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.3070	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7060	0.6395	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2795	0.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3040	0.2950	0.3006	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2900	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3350	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.8150	0.7673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1757

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	2.000	-0.200	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.500	0.074	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.650	2.000	0.350	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.205	0.500	0.045	-0.250
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	1.000	0.608	0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	0.000	-0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.732	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	0.014
predicted_H	0.809	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.563	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	1.109	-0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.002
predicted_H	0.796	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.014
predicted_R	0.477	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.547	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.121	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.8947	0.3158	0.1579	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.2250	0.2439	0.5250	0.2250	0.0750	0.1500	0.0250	0.2750
season	0.60	20	-	74.000	13.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	23.000	0.1757	0.2051	0.3919	0.1757	0.0541	0.1216	0.0405	0.3108

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7860
predicted_AVG	0.2221
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_H	0.8410
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_OBP	0.2595
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.4849
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2380	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7860	3.7317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2221	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.1870	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8410	0.8088	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2500	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2595	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.5620	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5860	0.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4849	0.4850	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.0400	1.1094	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2404

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	-0.240
predicted_BB	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.271	0.000	-0.271
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.104	0.000	-0.104
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	-0.288
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.396	0.000	-0.396
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	-0.377
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.271	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.846	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	0.005
predicted_H	0.878	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.229	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.003
predicted_H	0.864	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.082	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.014
predicted_R	0.388	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.326	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.241	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.4615	0.2821	0.0256	0.0769	0.1026	0.3333
season	0.60	48	-	183.000	44.000	10.000	5.000	19.000	18.000	13.000	60.000	0.2404	0.2879	0.3770	0.2404	0.0273	0.1038	0.0710	0.3279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8940
predicted_AVG	0.2395
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.2902
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.3701
predicted_SO	1.1990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.2370	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.8940	3.8457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2395	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2710	0.2840	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9320	0.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0890	0.0837	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2902	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4350	0.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3590	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3701	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1990	1.2290	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2973

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	4.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	1.000	-1.128	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	-0.344	-0.250
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.527	0.250	-0.527	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.872	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.872	1.000	1.128	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	0.872	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.857	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	-0.004
predicted_H	1.073	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.221	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000
predicted_SO	0.919	0.047

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.148	-0.002
predicted_H	1.055	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.217	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.026
predicted_R	0.514	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.487	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.500	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.928	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.3182	0.3182	0.5909	0.3182	0.0909	0.1364	0.0000	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.4878	0.2683	0.0732	0.1220	0.0244	0.2683
season	0.60	39	-	148.000	44.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	21.000	20.000	6.000	34.000	0.2973	0.3438	0.5270	0.2973	0.0541	0.1419	0.0405	0.2297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.9490
predicted_AVG	0.2876
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	1.1360
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.2370
predicted_OBP	0.3264
predicted_R	0.5550
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.5105
predicted_SO	0.9880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1380	0.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.9490	3.8572	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2876	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1430	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1360	1.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2370	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3264	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.5550	0.5300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5330	0.5014	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5105	0.5102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8720	0.9880	0.9188	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-SS
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 47

All-history rows before 20260519: 47

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.298	0.000	-0.298	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.021	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.021	1.000	-1.021	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	1.000	0.095	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.170	1.000	-0.170	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.085	1.000	-0.085	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	1.000	0.061	-0.667
predicted_R	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.383	1.000	-0.383	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.298	1.000	-0.298	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	4.000	-0.042	-3.667
predicted_SO	1.191	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.191	0.000	-0.191	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.021	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.170	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.383	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	1.191	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.985	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	0.026
predicted_H	1.077	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.107	-0.084

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.985	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.002
predicted_H	1.059	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.029
predicted_R	0.396	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.431	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.424	-0.028
predicted_SO	1.118	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.021

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3889	0.4500	0.6667	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.3659	0.3953	0.5122	0.3659	0.0244	0.1951	0.0488	0.2195
season	0.60	47	-	189.000	45.000	14.000	4.000	14.000	18.000	8.000	56.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.3757	0.2381	0.0212	0.0741	0.0423	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2873
predicted_BB	0.2340
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3291
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.4526
predicted_SO	0.9870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2980	0.3020	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0210	3.9330	3.9848	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2873	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1700	0.2340	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1300	1.0770	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1150	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3291	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3830	0.4430	0.4077	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4640	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4526	0.4528	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1910	0.9870	1.1071	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Daniel Susac (691740) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 7

All-history rows before 20260519: 7

System season_avg: 0.4440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.444	0.250	-0.444	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.714	1.000	-1.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.483	0.400	-0.483	-0.400
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.593	0.250	-0.593	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.571	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	1.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.143	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.108	-0.035
predicted_AB	3.864	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.009
predicted_H	1.005	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.183	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.108	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.003
predicted_H	0.988	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.035
predicted_R	0.178	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.553	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.001
predicted_SO	0.645	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	7	-	27.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.4444	0.4828	0.5926	0.4444	0.2222	0.0741	0.1482
season	0.60	7	-	27.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.4444	0.4828	0.5926	0.4444	0.2222	0.0741	0.1482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.2919
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	1.1320
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.2770
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.4250
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2710	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1430	0.0270	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.8790	3.8636	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2919	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2550	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1320	1.0048	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0542	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2770	0.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6400	0.5701	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4250	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7950	0.6385	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.444

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691740
playerID	691740
playerName	Daniel Susac
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3239

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.911	2.000	0.089	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.267	0.000	-1.267	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.000	-0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.156	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.911	-
predicted_AVG	0.340	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	0.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.882	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	0.052
predicted_H	1.291	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000
predicted_SO	0.179	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.003
predicted_H	1.270	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.141	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.013
predicted_R	0.510	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.420	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.510	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.181	0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.325 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.911

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.8889	0.4444	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	1.000	0.3590	0.4468	0.5641	0.3590	0.0513	0.1026	0.1795	0.0256
season	0.60	45	-	176.000	57.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	17.000	21.000	13.000	7.000	0.3239	0.3646	0.4318	0.3239	0.0114	0.0966	0.0739	0.0398

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.3401
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	1.3060
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3942
predicted_R	0.6090
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.5289
predicted_SO	0.2130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2350	0.2144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0250	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9110	3.8410	3.8823	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3400	0.3401	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.4160	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.3060	1.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1470	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.6090	0.5253	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4360	0.4325	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5289	0.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1560	0.2130	0.1794	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Will Brennan (686823) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 3

All-history rows before 20260519: 3

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.333	3.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.667
predicted_SO	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.247	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	0.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.718	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.045	0.045
predicted_H	0.432	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.247	0.000
predicted_R	0.079	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000
predicted_SO	0.438	0.081

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.042
predicted_BB	0.045	-0.001
predicted_H	0.425	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.170	-0.077
predicted_R	0.077	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.211	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.088
predicted_SO	0.442	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	7.000	1.000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	3	-	7.000	1.000	0.1429
season	0.60	3	-	7.000	1.000	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.1980
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.2475
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3211
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1370	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5240	2.7179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1980	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2120	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.6980	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0920	0.0589	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2470	0.2475	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3720	0.0792	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.3570	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3211	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3570	0.7350	0.4375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260423_LAD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	686823
playerID	686823
playerName	Will Brennan
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2191

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	0.761	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.870	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.870	4.000	-0.870	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.114	0.333
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	0.152	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.039	0.333
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	0.652	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	0.358	0.667
predicted_SO	1.087	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.087	1.000	-1.087	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.870	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	1.087	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.039
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.906	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.021
predicted_H	0.745	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.347	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.358	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.906	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.004
predicted_H	0.733	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.044	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.014
predicted_R	0.337	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.347	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.024
predicted_SO	1.142	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.870

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.2857	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.3810
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	0.1707	0.2444	0.2927	0.1707	0.0000	0.0976	0.0732	0.3415
season	0.60	46	-	178.000	39.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	16.000	17.000	17.000	50.000	0.2191	0.2944	0.3090	0.2191	0.0056	0.0899	0.0955	0.2809

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3340
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.9580
predicted_AVG	0.2008
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2676
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.3136
predicted_SO	1.1920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.3340	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8700	3.9580	3.9062	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2008	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3190	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7950	0.7450	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3140	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3830	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3136	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0870	1.1920	1.1302	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Landen Roupp (694738) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.333	2.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.111	4.000	-1.111	-3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.889	6.000	-0.889	-3.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.289	5.100	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	6.444	7.000	-3.444	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	13.000	20.000	14.000	34.000	2.000	4.4430	1.2911	0.4937	0.7595	0.5316	1.2911	0.0760
last_10	0.35	9	49.000	19.000	35.000	21.000	58.000	2.000	3.4898	1.1429	0.3878	0.7143	0.4286	1.1837	0.0408
season	0.20	9	49.000	19.000	35.000	21.000	58.000	2.000	3.4898	1.1429	0.3878	0.7143	0.4286	1.1837	0.0408

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4080
predicted_ER	2.4470
predicted_ERA	4.1289
predicted_H	4.3330
predicted_HR	0.4620
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	6.0970
predicted_WHIP	1.2639

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.4080	3.2054	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4470	1.7222	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1289	4.1289	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3330	3.6653	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4620	0.2306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.0970	4.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2639	1.2639	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	3
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.49
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	105
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694738
playerID	694738
playerName	Landen Roupp
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	0.200	1.095	1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	2.000	-0.105	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.5833	0.7500	0.1667
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	12.000	21.000	3.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.5000	0.6000	1.0500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_ER	0.4600
predicted_ERA	3.9368
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9870
predicted_WHIP	1.3042

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5400	0.8094	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4600	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9368	3.9368	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8310	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.0833	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9870	0.9946	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3042	1.3042	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	2.750	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	3.500	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.000	-0.720	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	20	19.100	5.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.3276	0.8276	0.2586	0.5172	0.3103	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2240
predicted_ERA	3.2416
predicted_H	0.4940
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4960
predicted_WHIP	1.1368

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2140	0.6771	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2240	1.8594	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2416	3.2416	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.4940	2.5595	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4960	1.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1368	1.1368	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.33
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: ARI

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2530

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	5.000	0.227	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.400	-0.003	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	2.000	0.045	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	-0.091	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.400	-0.054	-0.150
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	2.000	0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	2.000	1.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	1.000	-0.136	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	0.000	-0.909	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.813	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.001
predicted_H	1.008	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.898	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.813	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.274	0.002
predicted_H	1.025	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.008
predicted_R	0.584	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.412	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.891	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.4091	0.4167	0.5909	0.4091	0.0454	0.2727	0.0454	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2895	0.3333	0.4211	0.2895	0.0263	0.1842	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.60	22	-	83.000	21.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	0.2530	0.3043	0.3855	0.2530	0.0241	0.1446	0.0723	0.2410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8780
predicted_AVG	0.2799
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3259
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.4244
predicted_SO	0.8810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2090	0.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.8780	3.8127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2799	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2700	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0860	1.0076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1150	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3259	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.6030	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6400	0.5902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4244	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8810	0.8984	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2839

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.523	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.523	4.000	-0.523	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.500	0.049	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.614	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.614	0.000	0.386	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	-0.159	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.432	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.500	0.108	0.000
predicted_R	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.635	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.555	1.000	0.112	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.955	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.955	0.000	-0.955	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.114	-
predicted_AB	3.523	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.614	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.432	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.635	-
predicted_SO	0.955	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	0.018
predicted_3B	0.114	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.658	0.044
predicted_H	1.095	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.195	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.432	-0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.635	0.000
predicted_SO	0.891	-0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.114	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.664	0.005
predicted_H	1.113	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.199	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.423	-0.009
predicted_R	0.806	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.624	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.884	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	0.4444	0.5833	1.0000	0.4444	0.1111	0.2222	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.7059	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177	0.2647	0.1471
season	0.60	44	-	155.000	44.000	11.000	5.000	7.000	24.000	32.000	27.000	42.000	0.2839	0.3925	0.5548	0.2839	0.0452	0.1548	0.1742	0.2710

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.1130
predicted_AB	3.5540
predicted_AVG	0.3179
predicted_BB	0.7220
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.4318
predicted_R	0.8610
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.6354
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2940	0.2680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1140	0.1130	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5230	3.5540	3.5357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3179	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6140	0.7220	0.6582	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1300	1.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2030	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4320	0.4318	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.8610	0.7819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5540	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6350	0.6354	0.6352	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9550	0.8000	0.8915	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2740

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.395	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.395	4.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.393	0.417
predicted_BB	0.372	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	0.000	0.628	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	1.000	1.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.401	0.500
predicted_R	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	4.000	0.419	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.511	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.466	1.000	0.201	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	1.000	-0.744	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.395	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.511	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.400	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.072
predicted_H	0.892	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.716	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.511	0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.447	0.004
predicted_H	0.908	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.167	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.024
predicted_R	0.642	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.738	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4783	0.6875	0.3125	0.0625	0.4375	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	0.2727	0.4186	0.5758	0.2727	0.0606	0.2424	0.2424	0.2121
season	0.60	43	-	146.000	40.000	7.000	7.000	25.000	25.000	16.000	32.000	0.2740	0.3494	0.4658	0.2740	0.0479	0.1712	0.1096	0.2192

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4080
predicted_AVG	0.2757
predicted_BB	0.5490
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3762
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	0.7540
predicted_SLG	0.5113
predicted_SO	0.7630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.2860	0.2128	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3950	3.4080	3.4003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2757	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.5490	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9400	0.8924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1710	0.1645	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3762	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.6850	0.6231	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7540	0.7159	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5110	0.5113	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.7630	0.7517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2278

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.762	5.000	-0.762	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.400	0.105	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	1.000	-0.048	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.400	0.205	0.100
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	1.000	0.017	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.770	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.380	-0.001
predicted_H	0.862	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.383	0.003
predicted_H	0.877	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.005
predicted_R	0.378	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.714	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3478	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3095	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.1944
season	0.60	21	-	79.000	18.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	8.000	15.000	0.2278	0.2955	0.3165	0.2278	0.0127	0.1139	0.1013	0.1899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2419
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3079
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.5320
predicted_SLG	0.3782
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2200	0.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7620	3.7830	3.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2419	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.3780	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9150	0.8619	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3079	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4230	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5320	0.4995	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3782	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7310	0.7204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.419	1.667	-0.419	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.889	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	1.111	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.444	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.403	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.511	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	0.018
predicted_H	0.837	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.416	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.403	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.511	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.039
predicted_BB	0.354	0.003
predicted_H	0.852	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.041
predicted_R	0.373	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.019
predicted_SO	0.869	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.4444	0.3333	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	9	-	31.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2903	0.3529	0.4194	0.2903	0.1935	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.60	9	-	31.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2903	0.3529	0.4194	0.2903	0.1935	0.0968	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3130
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6580
predicted_AVG	0.2814
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3529
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.4158
predicted_SO	0.8470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4440	0.3130	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.6580	3.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2814	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3910	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.0290	0.8373	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0550	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3529	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4270	0.3624	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5610	0.4572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4158	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.8470	0.8759	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_AB	3.488	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.488	4.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.107	0.083
predicted_BB	0.651	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.651	1.000	0.349	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.400	0.156	0.100
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	1.000	-0.419	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	-0.020	0.083
predicted_SO	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.535	0.000	0.465	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.070	-
predicted_AB	3.488	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.651	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.535	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.006
predicted_3B	0.058	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.571	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.650	-0.001
predicted_H	0.795	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.434	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.549	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.058	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.656	0.005
predicted_H	0.809	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.004
predicted_R	0.447	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.007
predicted_SO	0.545	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.2051	0.3111	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.0256	0.1538	0.1538
season	0.60	43	-	150.000	34.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	18.000	28.000	23.000	0.2267	0.3444	0.3533	0.2267	0.0133	0.0800	0.1867	0.1533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.6490
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3426
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.3337
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1780	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0700	0.0400	0.0578	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4880	3.6910	3.5709	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2295	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6510	0.6490	0.6502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8470	0.7955	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3426	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.4560	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2340	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3337	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5350	0.5700	0.5493	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	4.146	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.146	4.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.500	-0.224	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	2.000	-0.927	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.400	-0.273	-0.400
predicted_R	0.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	2.000	-0.561	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.415	2.000	-0.415	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.500	-0.371	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.756	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	0.000	1.244	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	4.146	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.017
predicted_3B	0.047	-0.002
predicted_AB	4.120	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.007
predicted_H	0.958	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.562	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.065

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.047	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.303	0.003
predicted_H	0.974	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.001
predicted_R	0.579	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.686	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.146

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2250	0.2727	0.3500	0.2250	0.0000	0.1000	0.0750	0.0750
season	0.60	41	-	170.000	38.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	17.000	23.000	12.000	31.000	0.2235	0.2732	0.3706	0.2235	0.0294	0.1000	0.0706	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	4.0820
predicted_AVG	0.2374
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2880
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.3642
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.1880	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0440	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1460	4.0820	4.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2374	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.3110	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9690	0.9578	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2880	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.5630	0.5618	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4190	0.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3642	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.5980	0.6914	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.3250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3247

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.162	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.162	5.000	-1.162	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.325	0.400	-0.325	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.108	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.108	0.000	0.892	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.351	2.000	-1.351	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.400	-0.092	-0.150
predicted_R	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.730	2.000	-0.730	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.400	-0.519	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.162	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.108	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.730	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	0.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.198	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.114	0.006
predicted_H	1.208	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.735	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.716	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.426	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.198	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.115	0.001
predicted_H	1.229	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.014
predicted_R	0.758	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.738	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.422	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.162

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.0000	0.2083	0.0000	0.0417
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	0.2727	0.2889	0.3636	0.2727	0.0227	0.2046	0.0227	0.0909
season	0.60	37	-	154.000	50.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	28.000	27.000	4.000	15.000	0.3247	0.3418	0.5195	0.3247	0.0454	0.1818	0.0260	0.0974

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	4.2520
predicted_AVG	0.3046
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3256
predicted_R	0.7430
predicted_RBI	0.7700
predicted_SLG	0.4493
predicted_SO	0.4560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1760	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0160	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1620	4.2520	4.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3046	0.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1080	0.1220	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2950	1.2085	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3256	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7300	0.7430	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7700	0.7163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4493	0.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4050	0.4560	0.4256	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.325

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260518_SF@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 24

All-history rows before 20260519: 24

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1705

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.163	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.221	0.000	0.279	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.049	0.333
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	3.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.614	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.030
predicted_H	0.538	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.239	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.319	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.283	0.002
predicted_H	0.547	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.213	-0.024
predicted_R	0.246	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.250	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.308	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	0.0667	0.2222	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.5333
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	14.000	0.1250	0.1944	0.1562	0.1250	0.0000	0.0938	0.0938	0.4375
season	0.60	24	-	88.000	15.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	32.000	0.1705	0.2211	0.2841	0.1704	0.0227	0.1477	0.0682	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.1655
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.5840
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2374
predicted_R	0.2200
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.2686
predicted_SO	1.2950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1660	0.1666	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5270	3.6138	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1655	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3300	0.2804	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5840	0.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2374	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2200	0.2386	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3940	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2686	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.2950	1.3186	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryne Nelson (669194) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	0.000	-1.556	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.222	4.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.689	7.000	0.311	-2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.778	8.000	-1.778	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	19.000	25.000	6.000	24.000	5.000	6.9324	1.2568	0.7703	1.0135	0.2432	0.9730	0.2027
last_10	0.35	9	45.000	27.000	38.000	14.000	43.000	9.000	5.4000	1.1556	0.6000	0.8444	0.3111	0.9556	0.2000
season	0.20	9	45.000	27.000	38.000	14.000	43.000	9.000	5.4000	1.1556	0.6000	0.8444	0.3111	0.9556	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8710
predicted_ER	3.7690
predicted_ERA	5.5866
predicted_H	5.7390
predicted_HR	1.0700
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.8340
predicted_WHIP	1.2535

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8710	0.9339	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.7690	2.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5866	5.5866	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.7390	4.8680	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0700	1.0349	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	6.0000	7.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.8340	4.4145	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2535	1.2535	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	8
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669194
playerID	669194
playerName	Ryne Nelson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	3.8642
predicted_H	0.3740
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3940
predicted_WHIP	1.2421

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1450	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8642	3.8642	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3740	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3940	0.8404	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2421	1.2421	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 2

All-history rows before 20260519: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.1820
predicted_ERA	4.6296
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3290
predicted_WHIP	1.3845

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1820	0.7925	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6296	4.6296	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3380	0.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3290	0.0835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3845	1.3845	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1310
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	4.4038
predicted_H	0.3510
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3280
predicted_WHIP	1.3434

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1310	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1760	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4038	4.4038	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3510	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0110	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3280	0.8363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3434	1.3434	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 1

All-history rows before 20260519: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_ER	0.1540
predicted_ERA	4.1669
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3130
predicted_WHIP	1.3002

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1240	0.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1540	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1669	4.1669	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3090	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.3130	1.6069	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3002	1.3002	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260519_TEX@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 3 - 4 COL	COL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 4 - 5 COL	COL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.20	2	1W	cold	strong
Home COL	4-6	0.400	4.20	5.70	-15	1L	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	22-24	0.478	3	0.065	True
Home COL	18-29	0.383	-44	-0.936	True
Signal	-	-	-1.001	-1.144	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	31	8	1	0	1	0	9
Player finalized COL	34	9	4	0	3	0	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.78	6.91	3.76	0.85	3.47	3.05	7.44
Player model fractional COL	32.33	7.49	4.15	0.82	3.81	2.80	9.09
Simulation box TEX	34	7	4	2	4	4	12
Simulation box COL	34	9	5	0	5	1	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	Tyler Alexander	5	2	3	2	1	3.73	1.37	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.35	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1	1	0	2	0	3.25	1.06	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	0.20	2	0	5	0	4.65	1.40	True
Home COL	Starter	Sammy Peralta	3	1	5	4	2	4.22	1.32	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.06	1.14	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.20	0	2	0	0	2.93	1.25	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Brennan Bernardino	1	2	1	2	1	5.94	1.41	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	1	0	1	1	0	3.46	1.19	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	1	1	0	1	5.08	1.58	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.864	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.864	4.000	-0.864	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.250	0.104	0.083
predicted_BB	0.227	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	1.000	0.773	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	0.841	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.400	0.225	0.100
predicted_R	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	1.000	0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.250	0.945	1.083
predicted_SO	1.114	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	2.000	0.886	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.864	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.795	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	0.045
predicted_H	0.968	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.838	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.272	0.001
predicted_H	0.980	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.205	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.022
predicted_R	0.484	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.856	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.458	-0.020
predicted_SO	1.074	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.864

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.7647	0.3529	0.1177	0.4706	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.3235	0.3947	0.5294	0.3235	0.0588	0.2941	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.60	44	-	170.000	39.000	6.000	7.000	28.000	18.000	10.000	49.000	0.2294	0.2747	0.3882	0.2294	0.0412	0.1647	0.0588	0.2882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6960
predicted_AVG	0.2689
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_OBP	0.3297
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.8640
predicted_SLG	0.4782
predicted_SO	1.0200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1480	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8640	3.6960	3.7954	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2689	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.3370	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9940	0.9680	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2070	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3297	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.5680	0.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	0.8640	0.8380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4782	0.4781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.0200	1.0756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 43

All-history rows before 20260519: 43

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2994

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.326	1.000	-0.326	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.884	5.000	0.116	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.200	-0.299	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.163	1.000	-1.163	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.200	-0.348	-0.200
predicted_R	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	1.000	-0.465	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.400	-0.473	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.628	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.628	0.000	1.372	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.884	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.628	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.916	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.013
predicted_H	0.951	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.478	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.313	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.916	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000
predicted_H	0.963	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.009
predicted_R	0.489	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.637	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.884

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.2381	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	0.2439	0.2619	0.3659	0.2439	0.0244	0.0244	0.0244	0.1463
season	0.60	43	-	167.000	50.000	14.000	5.000	20.000	20.000	11.000	27.000	0.2994	0.3481	0.4731	0.2994	0.0299	0.1198	0.0659	0.1617

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9630
predicted_AVG	0.2552
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.4034
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3260	0.2960	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8840	3.9630	3.9163	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2552	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.2250	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0110	0.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2987	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.4980	0.4785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3310	0.3127	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4034	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6280	0.6530	0.6382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Andrew McCutchen (457705) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 12

All-history rows before 20260519: 12

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	3.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.265	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.333	-0.124	-0.133
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.333	-0.412	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.833	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.976	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	0.006
predicted_H	0.753	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.344	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.976	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000
predicted_H	0.762	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.003
predicted_R	0.352	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.010
predicted_SO	0.814	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2903	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.60	12	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2647	0.3243	0.4118	0.2647	0.0294	0.0882	0.0882	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2820
predicted_AVG	0.2576
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3176
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.2790
predicted_SLG	0.3743
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1340	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.2820	2.9762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2576	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2680	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8450	0.7531	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3176	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3690	0.3445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2790	0.2456	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3743	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7770	0.8151	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	457705
playerID	457705
playerName	Andrew McCutchen
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2614

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	0.822	1.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.911	4.000	-1.911	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.239	0.500
predicted_BB	0.422	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.422	1.000	1.578	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	0.000	-0.022	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.200	0.408	0.550
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	0.602	1.000
predicted_SO	0.867	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	3.911	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.422	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.904	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	-0.011
predicted_H	0.756	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.892	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.044	0.000
predicted_AB	3.904	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.412	0.001
predicted_H	0.765	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.006
predicted_R	0.363	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.003
predicted_SO	0.890	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.911

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.0500	0.1364	0.1000	0.0500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.1316	0.2143	0.2105	0.1316	0.0000	0.0263	0.1053	0.2368
season	0.60	45	-	176.000	46.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	13.000	18.000	19.000	39.000	0.2614	0.3417	0.3977	0.2614	0.0227	0.0739	0.1080	0.2216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.1999
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2791
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.3132
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1680	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0430	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9110	3.8930	3.9036	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1999	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4220	0.3960	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7780	0.7556	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2791	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2920	0.3555	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2650	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	0.9270	0.8917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 6

All-history rows before 20260519: 6

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	3.000	-0.667	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.700	2.667	-0.700	-2.667
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.021
predicted_H	0.874	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.416	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000
predicted_H	0.885	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.019
predicted_R	0.352	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.008
predicted_SO	0.852	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	6	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	6	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.2652
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3168
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.5370
predicted_SLG	0.4829
predicted_SO	0.9070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2740	0.3166	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6320	3.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2440	0.1884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9630	0.8742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1670	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3168	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3750	0.3447	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5370	0.4886	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4829	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9070	0.8536	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.195	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.195	5.000	0.805	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.324	0.500
predicted_BB	0.537	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.561	0.000	1.439	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	0.878	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.203	0.500
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	0.000	2.683	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	1.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.922	1.250
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	2.000	-0.829	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.195	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.242	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	-0.018
predicted_H	0.476	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.287	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.242	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.520	0.001
predicted_H	0.482	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.013
predicted_R	0.421	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.805	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	0.1290	0.2703	0.2258	0.1290	0.0323	0.0645	0.1935	0.1613
season	0.60	41	-	131.000	23.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	17.000	22.000	34.000	0.1756	0.2968	0.3282	0.1756	0.0382	0.0992	0.1679	0.2595

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.1692
predicted_BB	0.4920
predicted_H	0.5600
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2793
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.2868
predicted_SO	0.7720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0890	0.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1950	3.3120	3.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1692	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.4920	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5600	0.4764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0990	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2793	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.4080	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2680	0.2274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2868	0.2869	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.7720	0.8061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 16

All-history rows before 20260519: 16

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.625	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.625	3.000	1.375	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.333	0.012	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.500	-0.157	-0.250
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.262	0.333	-0.012	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.625	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.786	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	-0.020
predicted_H	0.639	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.293	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	0.026

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.786	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.419	0.001
predicted_H	0.647	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.042
predicted_R	0.422	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.650	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2143	0.4211	0.2143	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	8.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.1071	0.2143
season	0.60	16	-	42.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2381	0.4074	0.2619	0.2381	0.1191	0.1667	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.0900
predicted_AVG	0.2434
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.2930
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3754
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3068
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0810	0.0686	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6250	3.0900	2.7857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2434	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3800	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7520	0.6394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2930	0.2930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3754	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4840	0.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3650	0.3094	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3068	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7010	0.6513	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 33

All-history rows before 20260519: 33

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2832

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	0.758	1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.424	4.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.750	-0.033	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	3.000	0.030	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.750	-0.099	-0.500
predicted_R	0.576	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.576	2.000	0.424	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	2.000	-0.455	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.750	0.049	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.788	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	0.000	-0.788	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.424	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.003
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.539	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.041
predicted_H	0.899	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.591	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.539	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.323	0.001
predicted_H	0.910	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.002
predicted_R	0.604	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	0.2500	0.2683	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0250	0.3000
season	0.60	33	-	113.000	32.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	12.000	26.000	0.2832	0.3492	0.4513	0.2832	0.0266	0.1327	0.1062	0.2301

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.2708
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.6150
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.4170
predicted_SO	0.9260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.2490	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0190	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4240	3.7150	3.5386	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2590	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0060	0.8993	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3174	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.6150	0.5914	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4740	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4170	0.4170	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.9260	0.8423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 28

All-history rows before 20260519: 28

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	4.000	0.786	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.061	0.250
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.607	0.000	0.393	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.200	-0.055	0.050
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.000	-0.072	0.250
predicted_SO	0.964	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.964	0.000	1.036	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.964	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.203	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	0.024
predicted_H	0.512	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.201	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.269	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.874	-0.090

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.203	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.418	0.001
predicted_H	0.518	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.201	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.058
predicted_R	0.275	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.873	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.0769	0.3333	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3514	0.3214	0.1429	0.0357	0.1071	0.2143	0.1786
season	0.60	28	-	90.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	11.000	27.000	0.1889	0.3048	0.3222	0.1889	0.0222	0.1000	0.1222	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.1850
predicted_AVG	0.1766
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HBP	0.2010
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3166
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.3003
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1000	0.1264	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0370	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.1850	3.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1766	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.4550	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5620	0.5116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2010	0.2010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3166	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2990	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3280	0.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3003	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9640	0.7310	0.8743	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.150	0.000	0.850	2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.910	1.000	4.090	4.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	2.200	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.3750	1.5000	0.3750	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	12.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	1.4062	0.3750	1.1250	0.2812	0.6562	0.0938
season	0.20	20	21.000	5.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	2.1429	1.3810	0.2381	1.0952	0.2857	0.7619	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0340
predicted_ER	1.0910
predicted_ERA	3.7250
predicted_H	2.5910
predicted_HR	0.3390
predicted_IP	2.2000
predicted_SO	2.2300
predicted_WHIP	1.3746

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0340	1.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.0910	1.6187	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7250	3.7250	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.5910	2.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3390	0.1422	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	2.2000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.2300	2.6770	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3746	1.3746	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	-0.039	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	0.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	2.3477
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0270
predicted_WHIP	0.8492

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3380	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3477	2.3477	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7480	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0270	1.0114	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8492	0.8492	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 17

All-history rows before 20260519: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	1.412	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.135	1.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	3.0000	0.9167	0.3333	0.5833	0.3333	0.2500
season	0.20	17	20.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8000	0.7500	0.2000	0.5000	0.2500	0.4500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4140
predicted_ERA	3.2468
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8010
predicted_WHIP	1.0624

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4140	0.7572	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2468	3.2468	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8580	1.5268	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8010	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0624	1.0624	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.476	0.000	1.524	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	0.952	0.000	4.048	5.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	1.000	-0.605	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	1.000	-1.095	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	12.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	7.5600	1.6800	0.8400	1.4400	0.2400	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	21	19.000	10.000	20.000	7.000	23.000	3.000	4.7368	1.4211	0.5263	1.0526	0.3684	1.2105	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_ER	0.2940
predicted_ERA	4.6478
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6360
predicted_WHIP	1.3968

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1840	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2940	1.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6478	4.6478	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.6120	3.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6360	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3968	1.3968	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: COL

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 35

All-history rows before 20260519: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	2.000	0.771	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.500	0.081	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	0.086	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.191	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	1.000	0.304	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	1.000	-0.257	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.618	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.005
predicted_H	0.912	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.577	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.485	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.202	-0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.002
predicted_H	0.892	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.009
predicted_R	0.555	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.467	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.208	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3158	0.4706	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2571	0.3077	0.4286	0.2571	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.60	35	-	127.000	32.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	20.000	10.000	44.000	0.2520	0.3094	0.3622	0.2520	0.0158	0.1260	0.0787	0.3465

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.2584
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3094
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3970
predicted_SO	1.1190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2980	0.2565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.6010	3.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2584	0.2582	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2730	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9300	0.9119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3094	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5860	0.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4930	0.4852	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3970	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.1190	1.2021	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 29

All-history rows before 20260519: 29

System season_avg: 0.1650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1649

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	3.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.165	0.333	0.085	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.552	1.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_R	0.552	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.552	2.000	-0.552	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.227	0.333	0.023	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.310	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.310	1.000	0.690	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	1.310	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.390	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.004
predicted_H	0.580	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.591	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	-0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.390	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.373	-0.002
predicted_H	0.567	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.012
predicted_R	0.569	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.202	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.257	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.2059	0.1471	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.3529
season	0.60	29	-	97.000	16.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	11.000	38.000	0.1649	0.2500	0.2268	0.1650	0.0103	0.0412	0.1134	0.3917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4610
predicted_AVG	0.1812
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2620
predicted_R	0.6530
predicted_RBI	0.2250
predicted_SLG	0.2617
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1500	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.4610	3.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1812	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.3680	0.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6270	0.5798	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.6530	0.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2250	0.2097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2617	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3100	1.1560	1.2505	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.165

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.006	0.250
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	0.000	0.024	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	-0.057	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	0.000	-0.244	0.250
predicted_SO	1.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.561	2.000	-1.561	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.561	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.995	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.013
predicted_H	0.975	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.215	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.447	-0.114

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.995	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.002
predicted_H	0.953	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.018
predicted_R	0.604	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.367	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.455	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.4634	0.2927	0.0488	0.0976	0.0488	0.2683
season	0.60	41	-	164.000	40.000	8.000	11.000	18.000	27.000	12.000	64.000	0.2439	0.3073	0.4939	0.2439	0.0671	0.1098	0.0732	0.3902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9890
predicted_AVG	0.2534
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_OBP	0.3064
predicted_R	0.5810
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.4586
predicted_SO	1.2820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1440	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9890	3.9955	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.2600	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0110	0.9749	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2230	0.2153	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5810	0.6272	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3970	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4586	0.4588	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5610	1.2820	1.4472	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2744

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.274	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	1.000	-0.409	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	1.000	-1.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.500	-0.105	-0.250
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	1.000	-0.523	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.333	-0.427	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.682	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.682	0.000	-0.682	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.682	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.003
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.664	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	0.058
predicted_H	0.946	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.664	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.003
predicted_H	0.925	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.044
predicted_R	0.452	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.442	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.674	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	0.2857	0.4186	0.4286	0.2857	0.0286	0.1143	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.60	44	-	164.000	45.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	19.000	18.000	30.000	0.2744	0.3548	0.4268	0.2744	0.0305	0.1402	0.1098	0.1829

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5730
predicted_AVG	0.2708
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3798
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.4067
predicted_SO	0.6540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1900	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.5730	3.6640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.5500	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9680	0.9456	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0900	0.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.5240	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4730	0.4594	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4067	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6820	0.6540	0.6705	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 31

All-history rows before 20260519: 31

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.460	0.500
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.871	1.000	2.129	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.410	0.500
predicted_R	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	0.000	0.710	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.468	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.250	0.777	1.000
predicted_SO	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.468	-
predicted_SO	0.581	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.094	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.010
predicted_H	0.843	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.468	0.000
predicted_SO	0.594	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.094	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.035
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.001
predicted_H	0.824	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.034
predicted_R	0.296	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.500	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.597	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.3750	0.3750	0.4375	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3438	0.3636	0.5938	0.3438	0.0625	0.3125	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.60	31	-	93.000	27.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	9.000	6.000	18.000	0.2903	0.3400	0.4731	0.2903	0.0215	0.1720	0.0645	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2110
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.2460
predicted_AVG	0.3009
predicted_BB	0.1680
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.3410
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4684
predicted_SO	0.6140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.2110	0.2203	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0350	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2460	3.0941	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3009	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1680	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9770	0.8430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3410	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.3360	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.6010	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4680	0.4684	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5810	0.6140	0.5936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 37

All-history rows before 20260519: 37

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3206

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.541	4.000	0.459	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.500	-0.071	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.135	2.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.600	-0.136	-0.350
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	2.000	0.595	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.750	-0.208	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.806	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	1.000	-0.784	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.599	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.002
predicted_H	1.036	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.073	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.794	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.002
predicted_H	1.013	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.037
predicted_R	0.432	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.468	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.799	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.5000	0.3125	0.0000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4211	0.4545	0.3333	0.0000	0.1212	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.60	36	-	131.000	42.000	12.000	2.000	19.000	15.000	11.000	29.000	0.3206	0.3776	0.4580	0.3206	0.0153	0.1450	0.0840	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.3081
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	1.0900
predicted_HBP	0.0730
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3741
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.4536
predicted_SO	0.7770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3710	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	3.5380	3.5987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3081	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3000	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0900	1.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0730	0.0730	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3741	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4970	0.4489	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5120	0.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4536	0.4538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	0.7770	0.7944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 32

All-history rows before 20260519: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2389

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	5.000	0.469	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.073	0.250
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	2.625	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.164	0.500
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.567	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.042
predicted_H	0.541	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.000
predicted_R	0.424	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.000
predicted_SO	1.134	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.394	-0.002
predicted_H	0.529	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.010
predicted_R	0.408	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.220	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.225	-0.027
predicted_SO	1.140	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	15.000	0.0811	0.1707	0.0811	0.0811	0.0000	0.0000	0.1081	0.4054
season	0.60	32	-	113.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	36.000	0.2389	0.3228	0.3363	0.2389	0.0177	0.1062	0.1239	0.3186

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.6210
predicted_AVG	0.1757
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2426
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.2520
predicted_SO	1.1480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0800	0.0885	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0180	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.6210	3.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1757	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3320	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6360	0.5415	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2426	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.3550	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2730	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2520	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.1480	1.1341	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 35

All-history rows before 20260519: 35

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3060

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	-1.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.200	-0.361	-0.200
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.572	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.672	0.000	-0.672	0.000
predicted_SO	1.057	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	0.000	-0.057	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.572	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.001
predicted_3B	0.067	0.010
predicted_AB	3.823	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.008
predicted_H	1.010	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.539	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.794	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.572	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	-0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.823	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.002
predicted_H	0.988	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.229	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.028
predicted_R	0.519	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.764	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.540	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.007	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.6316	0.2632	0.0526	0.3684	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3947	0.2105	0.0263	0.1842	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.60	35	-	134.000	41.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	27.000	21.000	10.000	37.000	0.3060	0.3605	0.6716	0.3060	0.0896	0.2015	0.0746	0.2761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0810
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.2726
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_OBP	0.3392
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.8140
predicted_SLG	0.5723
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2590	0.2578	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0810	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8140	3.8230	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3060	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0400	1.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2410	0.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3392	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4480	0.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.8140	0.7936	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5720	0.5723	0.5721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	0.9200	1.0021	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 42

All-history rows before 20260519: 42

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2092

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	3.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.333	0.041	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.500	-0.011	-0.250
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	2.000	-0.310	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.667	0.206	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	0.000	-1.024	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.585	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	0.018
predicted_H	0.812	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.325	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.951	-0.073

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.231	-0.001
predicted_H	0.794	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.028
predicted_R	0.313	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.377	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.956	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.2000	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3030	0.2424	0.0000	0.1212	0.0606	0.2424
season	0.60	42	-	153.000	32.000	10.000	1.000	13.000	12.000	9.000	43.000	0.2092	0.2606	0.2941	0.2092	0.0065	0.0850	0.0588	0.2811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5000
predicted_AVG	0.2412
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2973
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3405
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2570	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.5000	3.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2412	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2590	0.2322	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8440	0.8119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2973	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3820	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4090	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3405	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	0.8430	0.9507	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Sammy Peralta (671111) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 0

All-history rows before 20260519: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_ER	0.1560
predicted_ERA	4.2218
predicted_H	0.3130
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.3174

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1260	1.5737	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1560	0.8080	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2218	4.2218	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.3130	3.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0430	0.7823	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	0.3170	3.9346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3174	1.3174	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	15
Pitches	64

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.946	1.000	-0.846	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.6774	0.0968
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	4.000	13.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.6190	0.3333	0.7619	0.0476
season	0.20	13	28.100	4.000	15.000	8.000	25.000	1.000	1.2706	0.8118	0.1412	0.5294	0.2823	0.8823	0.0353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.5860
predicted_ERA	3.0621
predicted_H	1.3330
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4520
predicted_WHIP	1.1361

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6230	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5860	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0621	3.0621	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3330	0.6012	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4520	1.7528	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1361	1.1361	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.211	1.000	-1.211	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.063	1.000	0.137	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.421	1.000	0.579	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.3529	0.7059	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6154	0.5385	1.4615	0.0769
season	0.20	19	23.000	10.000	23.000	11.000	27.000	2.000	3.9130	1.4783	0.4348	1.0000	0.4783	1.1739	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_ER	0.4110
predicted_ERA	2.9280
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.2499

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6120	0.2626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4110	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9280	2.9280	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9650	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3160	1.7065	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2499	1.2499	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Brennan Bernardino (657514) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	0.000	1.619	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.662	1.000	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	11.2500	1.7500	1.2500	1.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.0000	1.4444	0.7778	1.2222	0.2222	0.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	21	18.100	8.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	3.9273	1.2545	0.4364	0.9818	0.2727	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.6180
predicted_ERA	5.9378
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6930
predicted_WHIP	1.4128

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3460	0.7349	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6180	1.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9378	5.9378	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9770	1.5853	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0900	0.6311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6930	0.8756	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4128	1.4128	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	657514
playerID	657514
playerName	Brennan Bernardino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 20

All-history rows before 20260519: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	1.100	0.350	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.050	3.000	-0.050	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.2222	0.3333	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	20	17.200	6.000	16.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	3.0566	1.4151	0.3396	0.9057	0.5094	1.1887	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.3840
predicted_ERA	3.4553
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0880
predicted_WHIP	1.1897

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3130	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3840	0.1542	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4553	3.4553	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8770	0.9506	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0880	1.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1897	1.1897	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 18

All-history rows before 20260519: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	2.000	0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.889	3.000	0.111	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.389	1.000	-1.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	0.000	0.078	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.9375	0.7500	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	9.9000	2.3000	1.1000	1.6000	0.7000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	18.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	16.000	2.000	6.5000	1.9444	0.7222	1.3333	0.6111	0.8889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_ER	0.3450
predicted_ERA	5.0806
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5900
predicted_WHIP	1.5822

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3140	0.7232	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3450	0.7357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0806	5.0806	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6530	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0246	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5900	0.8346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5822	1.5822	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TEX@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260519_TOR@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 1 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 3 - 4 NYY	NYY	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 1 - 4 NYY	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	5-5	0.500	4.70	3.70	10	1L	average	average
Home NYY	3-7	0.300	3.50	4.70	-12	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	21-26	0.447	-12	-0.255	True
Home NYY	29-19	0.604	69	1.438	True
Signal	-	-	1.693	1.929	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-18	TOR @ NYY	6 - 7	NYY	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target NYY	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	33	8	3	0	2	3	7
Player finalized NYY	32	8	5	0	4	5	9
Player model fractional TOR	31.13	6.65	3.39	0.88	3.46	2.91	7.12
Player model fractional NYY	30.91	6.59	4.38	1.10	3.75	5.37	8.96
Simulation box TOR	35	8	1	1	1	4	6
Simulation box NYY	31	7	4	2	4	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Dylan Cease	6	3	6	7	2	3.23	1.21	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1	0	0	0	0	2.36	1.43	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	0	0	0	1	3.32	1.38	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	0	1	0	0	0	4.59	1.52	True
Home NYY	Starter	Will Warren	5.20	1	4	4	3	3.95	1.19	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1.10	0	1	2	0	6.25	1.61	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1	0	0	0	1	2.69	1.14	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	1	0	1	2	0	3.40	1.22	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

Tyler Heineman (623168) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1607

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.089	0.250
predicted_BB	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.198	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.203	0.000	0.047	0.250
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.161	0.000	0.089	0.250
predicted_SO	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	0.000	0.381	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.050	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.198	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.207	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.017	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.886	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.017
predicted_H	0.374	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.198	0.000
predicted_R	0.207	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.138	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.000
predicted_SO	0.633	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.017	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.886	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.128	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.066	-0.001
predicted_H	0.368	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.147	-0.051
predicted_R	0.201	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.134	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.159	-0.048
predicted_SO	0.637	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0741	0.1071	0.0741	0.0741	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
season	0.60	20	-	56.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1607	0.2034	0.1607	0.1607	0.0357	0.0179	0.2321

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.0450
predicted_AVG	0.1561
predicted_BB	0.0980
predicted_H	0.4750
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.1980
predicted_R	0.2200
predicted_RBI	0.1710
predicted_SLG	0.2073
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0490	0.0172	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.0450	2.8861	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1561	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0500	0.0980	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.4750	0.3745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0330	0.0246	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1980	0.1980	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2200	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1710	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2070	0.2073	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.6010	0.6328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	623168
playerID	623168
playerName	Tyler Heineman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 13

All-history rows before 20260519: 13

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	4.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.000	0.008	0.333
predicted_BB	0.231	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.000	0.130	0.500
predicted_R	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.248	0.667
predicted_SO	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.413	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	0.012
predicted_H	0.889	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.097	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.201	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.449	0.064

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.413	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.002
predicted_H	0.874	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.027
predicted_R	0.195	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.343	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.452	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4211	0.3158	0.0263	0.1053	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.60	13	-	43.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3256	0.3696	0.4186	0.3256	0.0233	0.1163	0.0698	0.1163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.2784
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	1.0080
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.3317
predicted_R	0.2930
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.4039
predicted_SO	0.5770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1110	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.6220	3.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2784	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2670	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0080	0.8895	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1110	0.0970	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3317	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.2930	0.2005	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4010	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4039	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.5770	0.4492	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 45

All-history rows before 20260519: 45

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2335

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.266	0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	1.000	1.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.183	0.250
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.250	0.057	0.250
predicted_SO	1.244	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	3.000	-1.244	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.700	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	0.002
predicted_H	0.726	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.456	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	1.246	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.466	-0.003
predicted_H	0.713	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.012
predicted_R	0.518	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.442	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.254	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1111	0.2273	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2857	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.1111	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	39.000	5.000	10.000	27.000	24.000	21.000	56.000	0.2335	0.3175	0.4431	0.2335	0.0599	0.1617	0.1258	0.3353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.2071
predicted_BB	0.4720
predicted_H	0.7630
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.2948
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.3604
predicted_SO	1.2480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1700	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.6850	3.7003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2071	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.4720	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7630	0.7258	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1310	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.5340	0.5334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4780	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3604	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	1.2480	1.2456	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 41

All-history rows before 20260519: 41

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2549

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	1.268	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.250	-0.255	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	1.000	-0.951	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.250	-0.418	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.756	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	1.000	1.244	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.015
predicted_3B	0.042	0.018
predicted_AB	3.711	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	0.015
predicted_H	1.009	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.003
predicted_H	0.991	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.022
predicted_R	0.508	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.544	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.766	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.7647	0.3529	0.0588	0.3529	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.3243	0.3902	0.5135	0.3243	0.0270	0.1622	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	39.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	15.000	21.000	15.000	31.000	0.2549	0.3294	0.4183	0.2549	0.0327	0.0980	0.0980	0.2026

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.0680
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.2818
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_H	1.0370
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3566
predicted_R	0.5410
predicted_RBI	0.5750
predicted_SLG	0.4900
predicted_SO	0.7670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.2320	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0680	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.6800	3.7109	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2818	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.4030	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0370	1.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1330	0.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3566	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.5410	0.5238	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5750	0.5602	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4900	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.7670	0.7605	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2865

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.717	4.000	1.283	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.113	0.150
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	1.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.400	0.024	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.250	0.620	0.750
predicted_SO	0.478	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.478	0.000	0.522	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.717	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.609	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.478	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.712	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.518	0.018
predicted_H	0.864	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.638	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.465	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.712	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.514	-0.004
predicted_H	0.849	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.016
predicted_R	0.619	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.373	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.468	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	0.1622	0.2727	0.2432	0.1622	0.0270	0.1081	0.1622	0.0811
season	0.60	46	-	171.000	49.000	7.000	3.000	20.000	28.000	23.000	22.000	0.2865	0.3756	0.3801	0.2866	0.0175	0.1170	0.1345	0.1286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.2385
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3385
predicted_R	0.6800
predicted_RBI	0.3920
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	0.4460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1020	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7170	3.7050	3.7121	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5430	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8840	0.8640	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3385	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6090	0.6800	0.6382	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3920	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4780	0.4460	0.4648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2689

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.500	-0.269	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.333	-0.305	-0.333
predicted_R	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.500	-0.429	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.432	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.012
predicted_H	0.976	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.754	-0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.163	-0.001
predicted_H	0.959	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.022
predicted_R	0.366	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.759	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.4167	0.4167	0.4167	0.4167	0.0000	0.0833	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.3438	0.3714	0.4375	0.3438	0.0312	0.0938	0.0312	0.2812
season	0.60	34	-	119.000	32.000	4.000	5.000	17.000	13.000	6.000	26.000	0.2689	0.3053	0.4286	0.2689	0.0420	0.1429	0.0504	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3280
predicted_AVG	0.3006
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3342
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.4050
predicted_SLG	0.4221
predicted_SO	0.7370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0840	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.3280	3.4320	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3006	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1450	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0000	0.9758	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1050	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.3710	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4050	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4221	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7370	0.7539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 19

All-history rows before 20260519: 19

System season_avg: 0.1200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.632	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.632	2.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_BB	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_R	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SO	1.211	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.211	2.000	-0.211	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.152	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.263	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.224	-
predicted_SO	1.211	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.731	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	-0.032
predicted_H	0.389	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.238	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.216	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.140	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.596	-0.004
predicted_H	0.383	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.006
predicted_R	0.254	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.231	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.011
predicted_SO	1.224	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.0909	0.2308	0.0909	0.0909	0.0000	0.1818	0.6364
last_10	0.20	10	-	23.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	13.000	0.0870	0.3000	0.1304	0.0870	0.0870	0.3044	0.5652
season	0.60	19	-	50.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	23.000	0.1200	0.2903	0.1600	0.1200	0.1000	0.2400	0.4600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1522
predicted_BB	0.5430
predicted_H	0.4430
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2885
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.2237
predicted_SO	1.2250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1100	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6320	2.9100	2.7306	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1520	0.1522	0.1521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.5430	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.4430	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2885	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2630	0.2580	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2700	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2240	0.2237	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2110	1.2250	1.2160	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 27

All-history rows before 20260519: 27

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	5.000	-0.889	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.400	0.143	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.407	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	1.593	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	2.000	0.259	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.400	0.326	0.200
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	1.000	-0.370	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	1.000	-0.296	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	1.000	0.010	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.852	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	2.000	-0.852	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.914	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	-0.017
predicted_H	0.763	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.003
predicted_H	0.750	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.006
predicted_R	0.418	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.316	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.852	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.3333	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.1707	0.2273	0.2683	0.1707	0.0244	0.0488	0.0732	0.1951
season	0.60	27	-	105.000	20.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	11.000	23.000	0.1905	0.2735	0.3238	0.1905	0.0286	0.0762	0.1048	0.2190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9540
predicted_AVG	0.1983
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	0.7840
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.2706
predicted_R	0.5260
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.3312
predicted_SO	0.8370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.1440	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.9540	3.9144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1983	0.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.3640	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7840	0.7633	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1250	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2706	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.5260	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3350	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.8370	0.8461	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 40

All-history rows before 20260519: 40

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	4.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	-0.161	0.250
predicted_SO	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	2.000	0.350	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.633	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.097	-0.003
predicted_H	0.779	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.082	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.319	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.718	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.097	-0.001
predicted_H	0.766	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.082	0.000
predicted_HR	0.166	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.038
predicted_R	0.310	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.696	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.703	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.6471	0.2353	0.1177	0.4118	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2162	0.4000	0.2000	0.0571	0.2571	0.0000	0.2286
season	0.60	40	-	146.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	25.000	12.000	4.000	26.000	0.2466	0.2727	0.4110	0.2466	0.0343	0.1712	0.0274	0.1781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.6080
predicted_AVG	0.2365
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.0820
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.2694
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.7880
predicted_SLG	0.4462
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1680	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.6080	3.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2365	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.0930	0.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8530	0.7795	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0820	0.0820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1870	0.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2694	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3480	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7880	0.7175	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4462	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.7700	0.6983	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Dylan Cease (656302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.333	3.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.556	1.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.556	3.000	2.444	4.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.711	7.000	0.289	-1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	8.333	9.000	-2.333	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	10.000	27.000	9.000	43.000	1.000	2.8421	1.1368	0.3158	0.8526	0.2842	1.3579	0.0316
last_10	0.35	9	52.100	14.000	41.000	21.000	75.000	1.000	2.4076	1.1847	0.2675	0.7834	0.4013	1.4331	0.0191
season	0.20	9	52.100	14.000	41.000	21.000	75.000	1.000	2.4076	1.1847	0.2675	0.7834	0.4013	1.4331	0.0191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0970
predicted_ER	2.1700
predicted_ERA	3.2276
predicted_H	5.2420
predicted_HR	0.3860
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	7.4480
predicted_WHIP	1.2131

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.0970	2.0484	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.1700	2.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2276	3.2276	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.2420	6.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.3860	1.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.0000	6.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	7.4480	4.7192	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2131	1.2131	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	6
HR	2
BF	27
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656302
playerID	656302
playerName	Dylan Cease
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.864	2.000	-0.864	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	2.000	0.041	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.545	2.000	-1.545	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.0000	1.6667	0.0000	1.0000	0.6667	0.8333
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	11.000	6.000	15.000	0.8438	1.5938	0.0938	1.0312	0.5625	1.4062
season	0.20	22	23.200	1.000	19.000	9.000	34.000	0.3803	1.1831	0.0423	0.8028	0.3803	1.4366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.2810
predicted_ERA	2.3578
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1260
predicted_WHIP	1.4273

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5070	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2810	0.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3578	2.3578	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0240	0.4424	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1260	1.0544	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4273	1.4273	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	1.000	0.682	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.9286	1.7143	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	1.0000	0.3333	1.0000
season	0.20	22	21.100	4.000	17.000	7.000	14.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7969	0.3281	0.6562

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	3.3206
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9130
predicted_WHIP	1.3841

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4210	0.7562	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3690	0.1554	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3206	3.3206	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9630	0.4055	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9130	0.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3841	1.3841	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.318	1.000	-1.318	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.591	1.000	-1.591	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	13.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	3.7241	1.5517	0.4138	1.3448	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	22	20.100	13.000	29.000	8.000	35.000	3.000	5.7541	1.8197	0.6393	1.4262	0.3934	1.7213	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_ER	0.3220
predicted_ERA	4.5950
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7040
predicted_WHIP	1.5216

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2020	0.0841	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3220	0.7179	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5950	4.5950	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7580	0.3154	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7040	1.4607	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5216	1.5216	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: NYY

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 44

All-history rows before 20260519: 44

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.773	4.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.092	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	2.000	0.091	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.179	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	2.000	0.591	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	1.250	-0.052	-0.917
predicted_SO	1.205	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.205	1.000	-0.205	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.773	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	1.205	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	0.001
predicted_H	1.092	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.191	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.437	0.004
predicted_H	1.098	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.015
predicted_R	0.501	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.179	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.5263	0.5909	0.8421	0.5263	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	0.3333	0.3953	0.5128	0.3333	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.3846
season	0.60	44	-	166.000	40.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	21.000	19.000	53.000	0.2410	0.3209	0.3855	0.2410	0.0301	0.1084	0.1145	0.3193

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8030
predicted_AVG	0.3065
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_H	1.1660
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.3781
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.4876
predicted_SO	1.1700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3030	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7730	3.8030	3.7853	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3065	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4350	0.4332	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1660	1.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1270	0.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3781	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.5220	0.4954	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5010	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4876	0.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2050	1.1700	1.1907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 7

All-history rows before 20260519: 7

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.571	2.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.167	0.333
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	1.167	1.333
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	2.000	-1.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.775	0.204
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.020
predicted_H	0.573	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.070	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.207	-0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.775	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.413	0.004
predicted_H	0.577	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.047	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.001
predicted_R	0.071	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.196	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.2308	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.3846
last_10	0.20	7	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667	0.5000
season	0.60	7	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3030
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3112
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.3205
predicted_SO	1.0030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0930	0.0258	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5710	3.3030	2.7745	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3580	0.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.7640	0.5734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0630	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3112	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2520	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.4350	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.0030	1.2073	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 32

All-history rows before 20260519: 32

System season_avg: 0.1570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1574

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.157	0.000	-0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.176	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	0.000	-0.156	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.139	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.176	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.218	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.449	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.139	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.021
predicted_H	0.455	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.176	-0.000
predicted_R	0.251	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	1.151	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.064	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.449	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.200	0.002
predicted_H	0.458	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.004
predicted_R	0.254	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.209	-0.010
predicted_SO	1.140	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	12.000	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.0833	0.0278	0.0833	0.0000	0.3333
season	0.60	32	-	108.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	37.000	0.1574	0.2087	0.2315	0.1574	0.0185	0.0833	0.0648	0.3426

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0670
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5660
predicted_AVG	0.1387
predicted_BB	0.1650
predicted_H	0.4950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.1757
predicted_R	0.2530
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.2185
predicted_SO	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0670	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.5660	3.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1390	0.1387	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.1650	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4950	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0643	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1760	0.1757	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2530	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2810	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.1440	1.1513	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.157

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 5

All-history rows before 20260519: 5

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.600	4.000	1.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_BB	1.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.400	0.000	-1.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.550	0.500	-0.550	-0.500
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.750	-0.462	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	1.400	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.372	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.798	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.253	-0.147
predicted_H	0.710	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.372	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.798	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.015
predicted_BB	1.264	0.012
predicted_H	0.714	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.487	0.084
predicted_R	0.422	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.026
predicted_SO	0.807	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.3077	0.5500	0.4615	0.3077	0.2308	0.5385	0.3077
last_10	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.3077	0.5500	0.4615	0.3077	0.2308	0.5385	0.3077
season	0.60	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	0.3077	0.5500	0.4615	0.3077	0.2308	0.5385	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3000
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3210
predicted_AVG	0.2696
predicted_BB	0.8630
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.4031
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.4222
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.3000	0.3725	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6000	3.3210	2.7979	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2696	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.4000	0.8630	1.2526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8950	0.7100	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0538	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4031	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4630	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5550	0.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4222	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8550	0.8151	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2925

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	1.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	5.000	-0.769	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.200	0.041	0.133
predicted_BB	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	1.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.359	0.000	0.641	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.200	0.103	0.300
predicted_R	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	0.000	1.256	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.553	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.646	0.400	0.687	0.933
predicted_SO	1.077	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.846	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.553	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.852	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	-0.072
predicted_H	0.960	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.303	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.800	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.553	0.000
predicted_SO	1.068	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.852	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.548	0.005
predicted_H	0.965	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.307	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.006
predicted_R	0.810	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.552	-0.001
predicted_SO	1.058	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2273	0.2917	0.5455	0.2273	0.0909	0.0909	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.1860	0.2391	0.4186	0.1860	0.0698	0.0930	0.0465	0.2791
season	0.60	39	-	147.000	43.000	10.000	14.000	29.000	33.000	24.000	42.000	0.2925	0.3966	0.6463	0.2925	0.0952	0.1973	0.1633	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9720
predicted_AVG	0.2561
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.7340
predicted_RBI	0.5990
predicted_SLG	0.5535
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2130	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.9720	3.8516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2561	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.4370	0.5426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0170	0.9595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3210	0.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8460	0.7340	0.8004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5990	0.5640	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5530	0.5535	0.5532	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.0550	1.0680	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 46

All-history rows before 20260519: 46

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	4.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.500	-0.268	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.674	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	0.000	0.326	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	2.000	-0.978	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	-0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	2.000	-0.652	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	1.250	-0.476	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.674	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.565	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.681	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.658	-0.016
predicted_H	0.825	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.585	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.681	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.665	0.006
predicted_H	0.830	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.128	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.658	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.001
predicted_SO	0.580	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
season	0.60	46	-	168.000	45.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	30.000	30.000	31.000	26.000	0.2679	0.3762	0.4762	0.2679	0.0357	0.1786	0.1845	0.1548

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2354
predicted_BB	0.6360
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3444
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.5770
predicted_SLG	0.4180
predicted_SO	0.6140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2390	0.2010	0.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0360	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.7230	3.6813	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2354	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6740	0.6360	0.6583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8760	0.8254	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1350	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3444	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.6470	0.6499	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5770	0.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4180	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5650	0.6140	0.5852	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 39

All-history rows before 20260519: 39

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1620

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	5.000	0.359	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.088	0.250
predicted_BB	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_R	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_SO	0.795	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	1.000	1.205	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.692	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.673	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.648	-0.043
predicted_H	0.592	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.593	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	0.847	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.673	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.655	0.006
predicted_H	0.596	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.012
predicted_R	0.551	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.601	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.004
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.1579	0.2558	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316	0.2895
season	0.60	39	-	142.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	22.000	23.000	27.000	31.000	0.1620	0.2924	0.3028	0.1620	0.0282	0.1549	0.1901	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.1639
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.2770
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.6130
predicted_SLG	0.3032
predicted_SO	0.9220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1230	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0150	0.0215	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.7190	3.6727	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1639	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6920	0.5850	0.6485	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6100	0.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1145	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2770	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.4790	0.5449	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6130	0.5934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.9220	0.8466	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 34

All-history rows before 20260519: 34

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1776

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.147	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.147	4.000	-0.147	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.250	0.156	0.083
predicted_BB	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.333	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.250	0.040	0.083
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.250	0.062	0.083
predicted_SO	0.941	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	3.000	0.059	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.147	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.254	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.060
predicted_H	0.476	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.334	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	0.088

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.254	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.473	0.005
predicted_H	0.479	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.007
predicted_R	0.338	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.131	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.019	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0882	0.4706
season	0.60	34	-	107.000	19.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	18.000	32.000	0.1776	0.2937	0.2710	0.1776	0.0280	0.0467	0.1682	0.2991

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4190
predicted_AVG	0.1690
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_H	0.5780
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2486
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2435
predicted_SO	1.1640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0470	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1470	3.4190	3.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1690	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.3760	0.4688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5780	0.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2486	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3500	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1600	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2435	0.2432	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	1.1640	1.0288	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 48

All-history rows before 20260519: 48

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2659

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.604	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.604	4.000	0.396	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.234	0.250
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	1.000	1.042	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.250	0.102	0.250
predicted_R	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.590	0.250	0.160	0.500
predicted_SO	1.208	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.208	0.000	-1.208	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.604	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.812	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	1.208	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.643	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.707	-0.043
predicted_H	0.873	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.759	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.714	0.007
predicted_H	0.878	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.202	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.003
predicted_R	0.769	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.016
predicted_SO	1.145	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3864	0.3889	0.2500	0.0278	0.0278	0.2222	0.3056
season	0.60	48	-	173.000	46.000	8.000	16.000	30.000	39.000	36.000	58.000	0.2659	0.3981	0.5896	0.2659	0.0925	0.1734	0.2081	0.3353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.2489
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_OBP	0.3625
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.4709
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1800	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6040	3.6970	3.6425	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2489	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.6470	0.7074	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9200	0.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2120	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3625	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8120	0.6850	0.7595	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4120	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4709	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2080	1.0820	1.1559	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Will Warren (701542) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 9

All-history rows before 20260519: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.333	1.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.778	4.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.000	5.200	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	6.556	6.000	-2.556	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	13.000	26.000	6.000	39.000	4.000	4.0345	1.1034	0.4483	0.8965	0.2069	1.3448	0.1379
last_10	0.35	9	47.100	18.000	43.000	12.000	59.000	6.000	3.4225	1.1620	0.3803	0.9084	0.2535	1.2465	0.1268
season	0.20	9	47.100	18.000	43.000	12.000	59.000	6.000	3.4225	1.1620	0.3803	0.9084	0.2535	1.2465	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5620
predicted_ER	2.4510
predicted_ERA	3.9505
predicted_H	5.1080
predicted_HR	0.7400
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.5890
predicted_WHIP	1.1943

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5620	2.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4510	1.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9505	3.9505	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.1080	4.5530	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7400	0.8702	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.5890	5.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1943	1.1943	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.42
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	701542
playerID	701542
playerName	Will Warren
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 21

All-history rows before 20260519: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.190	1.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.167	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.190	2.000	-0.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	11.5714	2.3571	1.2857	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	13.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	6.9677	1.6452	0.7742	1.2581	0.3871	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	21	21.000	12.000	25.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	5.1429	1.6190	0.5714	1.1905	0.4286	1.1905	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_ER	0.6940
predicted_ERA	6.2450
predicted_H	1.1270
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0750
predicted_WHIP	1.6095

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4820	0.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6940	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.2450	6.2450	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1270	1.6338	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1980	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0750	1.0315	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6095	1.6095	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 23

All-history rows before 20260519: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.565	1.000	0.435	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.626	1.000	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.217	3.000	-1.217	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6667	0.0000	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.6000	0.4000	1.1000	0.0000
season	0.20	23	20.000	5.000	14.000	13.000	28.000	2.000	2.2500	1.3500	0.2500	0.7000	0.6500	1.4000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.3190
predicted_ERA	2.6928
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1620
predicted_WHIP	1.1416

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4230	0.7609	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3190	0.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6928	2.6928	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7940	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1620	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1416	1.1416	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260518_TOR@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260519: 22

All-history rows before 20260519: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.636	0.000	1.364	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	0.100	0.332	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.4500	0.0000
season	0.20	22	18.200	3.000	14.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.4464	0.8571	0.1607	0.7500	0.1071	0.3750	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_ER	0.2620
predicted_ERA	3.3960
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4490
predicted_WHIP	1.2239

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1570	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2620	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3960	3.3960	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6930	1.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0224	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4490	0.7756	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2239	1.2239	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19