Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260518

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260518_ATL@MIA 20260518_BAL@TB 20260518_BOS@KC 20260518_CHW@SEA 20260518_CIN@PHI 20260518_CLE@DET 20260518_HOU@MIN 20260518_LAD@SD 20260518_MIL@CHC 20260518_NYM@WAS 20260518_OAK@LAA 20260518_SF@ARI 20260518_TEX@COL 20260518_TOR@NYY

20260518_ATL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.542592, "home_win_probability": 0.45740800000000004, "away_win_probability": 0.542592, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "confidence": 0.542592, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 4 MIA", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Season-to-date run differential, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ATL 5 - 4 MIA	ATL	0.543	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ATL 5 - 4 MIA	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ATL	6-4	0.600	3.80	2.10	17	1W	average	strong
Home MIA	5-5	0.500	4.40	5	-6	1L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away ATL	32-15	0.681	98	2.085	True
Home MIA	21-26	0.447	-13	-0.277	True
Signal	-	-	-2.362	-2.713	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-15	MIA @ ATL	3 - 6	ATL	3	blowout
2026-04-14	MIA @ ATL	5 - 6	ATL	1	close
2026-04-13	MIA @ ATL	10 - 4	MIA	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ATL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target MIA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ATL	34	9	6	0	5	1	9
Player finalized MIA	33	9	2	0	1	2	8
Player model fractional ATL	33.40	7.83	5.04	1.42	4.75	2.63	7.17
Player model fractional MIA	32.61	7.14	3.74	0.70	3.48	2.98	8.06
Simulation box ATL	36	9	5	2	5	2	14
Simulation box MIA	34	8	4	2	4	3	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ATL	Starter	JR Ritchie	5.10	2	2	5	1	3.81	1.37	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	0	1	0	0	2.50	0.89	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1.10	0	0	1	0	2.73	1.14	True
Away ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1.10	2	2	2	2	2.42	1.12	True
Home MIA	Starter	Max Meyer	5.20	3	10	7	2	3.31	1.17	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.74	1.30	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1	0	1	0	0	2.97	1.19	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	Pete Fairbanks	1	2	1	2	0	5.67	1.41	True
Home MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	0	0	0	0	0	4.97	1.22	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ATL

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2762

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.851	3.000	0.149	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.224	0.500
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	1.000	-0.489	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.064	0.000	0.936	2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.298	0.000	0.702	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.146	0.250
predicted_R	0.766	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.766	0.000	0.234	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.809	1.000	3.191	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.591	0.000	0.659	1.250
predicted_SO	1.085	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.085	1.000	-0.085	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.851	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.766	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.085	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	-0.053
predicted_H	0.824	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.646	-0.120
predicted_RBI	0.589	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.421	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.120	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.002
predicted_BB	0.446	0.010
predicted_H	0.859	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.192	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.018
predicted_R	0.695	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.634	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.024
predicted_SO	1.094	-0.026

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.851

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	14.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2368	0.1579	0.0263	0.1316	0.0526	0.3684
season	0.60	47	-	181.000	50.000	15.000	14.000	38.000	36.000	23.000	51.000	0.2762	0.3544	0.5912	0.2762	0.0774	0.2099	0.1271	0.2818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7920
predicted_AVG	0.2226
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_OBP	0.2869
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4206
predicted_SO	1.1690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3190	0.1880	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8510	3.7920	3.8266	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2226	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.3600	0.4357	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8440	0.8240	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1870	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2869	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7660	0.4750	0.6459	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6010	0.5887	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4206	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0850	1.1690	1.1197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	1.000	-0.174	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.804	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.804	4.000	0.196	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	2.000	0.152	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	1.000	0.848	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.500	-0.040	-0.250
predicted_R	0.522	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.522	2.000	0.478	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.609	3.000	0.391	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	1.500	0.611	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.130	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.130	1.000	0.870	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.804	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.522	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.130	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.782	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.038
predicted_H	0.843	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.510	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.566	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	1.103	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.782	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.272	0.006
predicted_H	0.879	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.164	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.007
predicted_R	0.549	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.609	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.025

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.804

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.4865	0.2703	0.0541	0.1622	0.0270	0.2973
season	0.60	46	-	175.000	39.000	8.000	7.000	28.000	24.000	14.000	52.000	0.2229	0.2902	0.3886	0.2229	0.0400	0.1600	0.0800	0.2971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2338
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2906
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.5880
predicted_SLG	0.4161
predicted_SO	1.0650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1840	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8040	3.7500	3.7818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2338	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.2110	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8770	0.8434	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1562	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2906	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5220	0.4920	0.5097	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5880	0.5656	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4161	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1300	1.0650	1.1033	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2243

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.452	3.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.667	-0.224	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	1.000	0.710	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	2.000	-0.774	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.750	-0.041	-0.500
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	2.000	-0.452	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.318	1.667	-0.318	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.871	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	0.000	1.129	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.452	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.424	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.003
predicted_H	0.774	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.030

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.299	0.007
predicted_H	0.807	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.025
predicted_R	0.523	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.822	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4375	0.7857	0.3571	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2812	0.3235	0.5000	0.2812	0.0625	0.1562	0.0625	0.2188
season	0.60	31	-	107.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	14.000	9.000	27.000	0.2243	0.2906	0.3178	0.2243	0.0187	0.0935	0.0841	0.2523

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3790
predicted_AVG	0.2585
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.5380
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.4371
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1100	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4520	3.3790	3.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2585	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.2970	0.2927	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8740	0.7740	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1630	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3222	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.5380	0.4856	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4740	0.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4371	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	0.7950	0.8413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2454

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045
predicted_AB	3.705	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	3.000	-0.705
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	-0.245
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	0.727
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	-0.909
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	-0.568
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.387
predicted_SO	0.705	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.705	0.000	-0.705

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.705	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.731	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.003
predicted_H	0.689	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.747	0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.276	0.006
predicted_H	0.718	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.015
predicted_R	0.435	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0526	0.1000	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.3333	0.2051	0.0256	0.1795	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	40.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	25.000	19.000	12.000	31.000	0.2454	0.3051	0.3865	0.2454	0.0184	0.1534	0.0736	0.1902

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2053
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.7740
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.3486
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1780	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0260	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.7680	3.7307	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2053	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2660	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7740	0.6887	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1040	0.0957	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.3630	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5480	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7050	0.8080	0.7470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

System season_avg: 0.3720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3718

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.372	0.250	-0.372	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.318	1.000	-1.318	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.250	-0.398	-0.250
predicted_R	0.591	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.591	0.000	-0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.564	0.250	-0.564	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.409	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.332	-
predicted_BB	0.136	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.591	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.409	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.604	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	0.016
predicted_H	1.072	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.000
predicted_R	0.562	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.000
predicted_SO	0.462	0.053

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.604	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.155	0.003
predicted_H	1.118	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.030
predicted_R	0.605	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.539	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.451	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.4359	0.3333	0.0256	0.0769	0.0256	0.1026
season	0.60	22	-	78.000	29.000	3.000	4.000	18.000	13.000	3.000	9.000	0.3718	0.3976	0.5641	0.3718	0.0513	0.2308	0.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.3317
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	1.2280
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.3687
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.5690
predicted_SLG	0.4795
predicted_SO	0.5510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1520	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.7030	3.6038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3320	0.3317	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1360	0.1780	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.2280	1.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1290	0.1108	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3687	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5910	0.5120	0.5616	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5690	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4795	0.4792	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4090	0.5510	0.4619	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.372

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2747

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.872	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.872	5.000	1.128	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.200	0.125	0.200
predicted_BB	0.298	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.298	0.000	-0.298	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.064	1.000	0.936	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.200	0.072	0.200
predicted_R	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.660	1.000	0.340	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.532	0.000	-0.532	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.200	-0.051	0.200
predicted_SO	0.532	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.532	1.000	0.468	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.872	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.298	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.660	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	0.532	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.865	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.268	-0.030
predicted_H	0.749	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.079	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.004
predicted_BB	0.275	0.006
predicted_H	0.781	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.107	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.002
predicted_R	0.629	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.014
predicted_SO	0.532	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.872

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.0526	0.1000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.1538
season	0.60	47	-	182.000	50.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	31.000	14.000	25.000	0.2747	0.3284	0.4505	0.2747	0.0440	0.1374	0.0769	0.1374

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.1976
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.7620
predicted_HBP	0.0790
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.2534
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.3091
predicted_SO	0.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1120	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8720	3.8550	3.8650	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1976	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2980	0.2260	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7620	0.7491	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0790	0.0790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1050	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6600	0.4770	0.5846	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3730	0.3654	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3091	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5320	0.5630	0.5448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2828

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	0.000	-0.079	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	1.000	0.553	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.000	-0.205	0.250
predicted_SO	0.763	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	0.000	1.237	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.806	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.165	0.007
predicted_H	0.870	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.149	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.015
predicted_BB	0.169	0.004
predicted_H	0.906	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.156	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.016
predicted_R	0.500	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.0513	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.60	38	-	145.000	41.000	4.000	7.000	20.000	17.000	6.000	29.000	0.2828	0.3092	0.4552	0.2828	0.0483	0.1379	0.0414	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2526
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.2863
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.4089
predicted_SO	0.8070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0980	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.7910	3.8060	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2526	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1760	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9580	0.8695	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1630	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2863	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4900	0.4643	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4070	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4089	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.8070	0.7807	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 5

All-history rows before 20260518: 5

System season_avg: 0.0590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.059	0.000	0.191	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.111	0.000	0.139	0.250
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.059	0.000	0.191	0.250
predicted_SO	0.800	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	2.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.467	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.175	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	0.013
predicted_H	0.515	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000
predicted_R	0.247	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.218	0.005
predicted_H	0.536	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.205	-0.027
predicted_R	0.266	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.215	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
season	0.60	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.1746
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2324
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.2691
predicted_SO	0.8340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1090	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6500	3.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1746	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2500	0.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6370	0.5146	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0730	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2324	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3750	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2830	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2691	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8340	0.8091	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.059

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3011

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.957	2.000	1.043	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	0.099	0.400
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	2.000	-0.489	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.191	0.000	0.809	2.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.400	0.015	0.000
predicted_R	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.830	0.000	0.170	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.809	2.000	-0.809	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.604	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.000	-0.143	0.400
predicted_SO	0.936	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.936	0.000	1.064	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.830	-
predicted_RBI	0.900	-
predicted_SLG	0.604	-
predicted_SO	0.936	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.901	-0.099
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	0.016
predicted_H	1.171	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.778	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.877	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.604	0.000
predicted_SO	0.935	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.901	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.013
predicted_BB	0.516	0.012
predicted_H	1.221	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.377	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.009
predicted_R	0.838	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.945	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.634	0.030
predicted_SO	0.914	-0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.094

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4286	0.8824	0.3529	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	11.000	0.2857	0.3953	0.6571	0.2857	0.1143	0.2286	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.60	47	-	186.000	56.000	6.000	13.000	38.000	39.000	23.000	44.000	0.3011	0.3850	0.5430	0.3011	0.0699	0.2043	0.1237	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7600
predicted_AVG	0.3004
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	1.1300
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.3450
predicted_OBP	0.3846
predicted_R	0.7040
predicted_RBI	0.8450
predicted_SLG	0.6043
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1050	0.1185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.7600	3.9007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3004	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.5270	0.5047	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.1300	1.1710	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3450	0.3597	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3846	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8300	0.7040	0.7779	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9000	0.8450	0.8772	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6040	0.6043	0.6041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9360	0.9340	0.9352	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

JR Ritchie (702275) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	3.750	3.000	-2.750	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	4.100	-0.200	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	4.250	4.000	-2.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	21.200	8.000	16.000	15.000	17.000	4.000	3.3231	1.4308	0.3692	0.7385	0.6923	0.7846	0.1846
last_10	0.35	4	21.200	8.000	16.000	15.000	17.000	4.000	3.3231	1.4308	0.3692	0.7385	0.6923	0.7846	0.1846
season	0.20	4	21.200	8.000	16.000	15.000	17.000	4.000	3.3231	1.4308	0.3692	0.7385	0.6923	0.7846	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.8570
predicted_ER	2.3380
predicted_ERA	3.8134
predicted_H	4.6890
predicted_HR	0.8520
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.8390
predicted_WHIP	1.3674

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.8570	1.7711	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3380	2.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8134	3.8134	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.6890	4.8709	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8520	0.9385	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.8390	3.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3674	1.3674	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	702275
playerID	702275
playerName	JR Ritchie
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	0.200	0.105	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	-0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	17.000	0.8710	0.2903	0.0968	0.2903	0.0000	1.6452
season	0.20	22	21.100	2.000	8.000	2.000	26.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.3750	0.0938	1.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.2770
predicted_ERA	2.4952
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1560
predicted_WHIP	0.8912

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2770	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4952	2.4952	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6780	0.2855	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1560	1.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8912	0.8912	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	0.085	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.308	2.000	-1.308	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.8000	0.4000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.2812	1.5000
season	0.20	13	13.200	7.000	3.000	17.000	0.7317	0.5122	0.2195	1.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.3030
predicted_ERA	2.7273
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0780
predicted_WHIP	1.1356

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3030	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7273	2.7273	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7770	0.9162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0780	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1356	1.1356	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	1.789	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	1.947	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.684	0.000	1.316	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.968	1.100	0.132	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.8824	0.0000	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.0000	0.8438	0.0000	0.5625	0.2812	0.8438
season	0.20	19	19.100	1.000	13.000	4.000	19.000	0.4655	0.8793	0.0517	0.6724	0.2069	0.9828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.2690
predicted_ERA	2.4207
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9240
predicted_WHIP	1.1221

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3440	1.3196	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2690	1.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4207	2.4207	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7780	1.4979	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0740	0.6195	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9240	1.5579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1221	1.1221	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: MIA

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2296

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.104	0.083
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_R	0.325	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.325	0.000	0.675	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.500	-0.044	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.325	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.467	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.032
predicted_H	0.727	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.092	-0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.006
predicted_H	0.682	-0.044
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.037
predicted_R	0.323	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.289	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.052
predicted_SO	1.112	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.60	40	-	135.000	31.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	13.000	15.000	46.000	0.2296	0.3269	0.3778	0.2296	0.0296	0.1037	0.1111	0.3407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2332
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3053
predicted_R	0.4110
predicted_RBI	0.3700
predicted_SLG	0.3881
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1980	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.6030	3.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2332	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.2960	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8400	0.7265	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1180	0.1013	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3053	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3250	0.4110	0.3596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3700	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3881	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.0070	1.0924	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3140

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	0.826	1.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.739	5.000	1.261	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.400	0.086	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.174	2.000	0.826	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.400	-0.001	0.000
predicted_R	0.717	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.717	1.000	0.283	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	1.000	-0.348	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.130	2.000	-0.130	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.400	0.135	0.200
predicted_SO	0.478	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.478	1.000	0.522	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.717	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.478	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.074	0.009
predicted_AB	3.816	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.523	-0.020
predicted_H	1.145	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.751	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.509	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.514	-0.009
predicted_H	1.075	-0.070
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.013
predicted_R	0.673	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.353	-0.040
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.518	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.5000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.4750	0.2500	0.0500	0.1250	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.60	46	-	172.000	54.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	16.000	33.000	25.000	22.000	0.3140	0.4010	0.4651	0.3140	0.0233	0.0930	0.1454	0.1279

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0870
predicted_AB	3.8380
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_H	1.1510
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3798
predicted_R	0.7990
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.4637
predicted_SO	0.5530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1670	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0870	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8380	3.8156	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.4950	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1510	1.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0960	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7170	0.7990	0.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3990	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4637	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4780	0.5530	0.5088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	1.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.106	0.400
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	0.000	0.919	2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	1.757	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.200	0.045	0.200
predicted_R	0.568	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.081	0.000	1.919	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	1.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	1.085	1.600
predicted_SO	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.351	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.728	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	0.007
predicted_H	0.915	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.892	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.403	0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.728	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.006
predicted_H	0.859	-0.056
predicted_HBP	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.026
predicted_R	0.480	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.800	-0.092
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.410	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.2381	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.2632	0.1842	0.0263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053
season	0.60	37	-	136.000	40.000	3.000	9.000	40.000	21.000	12.000	13.000	0.2941	0.3548	0.5147	0.2941	0.0662	0.2941	0.0882	0.0956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2502
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3183
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.9250
predicted_SLG	0.3989
predicted_SO	0.4790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.0720	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.8050	3.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3420	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9520	0.9150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3183	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.4860	0.5350	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	0.9250	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3989	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3510	0.4790	0.4025	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C-1B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.3430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3425

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.044	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.044	0.000	0.956	1.000
predicted_AB	4.022	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.022	4.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.343	0.500	-0.093	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.378	2.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.600	-0.123	-0.350
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.750	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	0.289	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.044	-
predicted_AB	4.022	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.014
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.008
predicted_AB	4.007	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.163	0.007
predicted_H	1.342	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.379	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.519	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	0.661	-0.050

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	4.007	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.160	-0.003
predicted_H	1.260	-0.082
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.038
predicted_R	0.488	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.465	-0.053
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.673	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.022

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4348	0.5000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3750	0.3953	0.4750	0.3750	0.0000	0.1250	0.0250	0.1000
season	0.60	45	-	181.000	62.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	21.000	27.000	7.000	32.000	0.3425	0.3731	0.4972	0.3425	0.0221	0.1160	0.0387	0.1768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.9850
predicted_AVG	0.3448
predicted_BB	0.1720
predicted_H	1.3740
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3785
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.4801
predicted_SO	0.5900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.3010	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0440	0.0250	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0220	3.9850	4.0068	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3448	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1720	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.3740	1.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3785	0.3788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4640	0.5442	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5310	0.5186	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4801	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.5900	0.6613	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.343

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 10

All-history rows before 20260518: 10

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	5.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.200	-0.176	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.200	0.050	0.050
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.200	-0.235	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	3.000	-0.400	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.475	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	0.034
predicted_H	0.567	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.376	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.475	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.132	-0.002
predicted_H	0.533	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.014	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.184	-0.053
predicted_R	0.316	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.238	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.034
predicted_SO	1.401	0.024

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.5556
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	14.000	0.1765	0.2000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.0294	0.4118
season	0.60	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	14.000	0.1765	0.2000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.0294	0.4118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6390
predicted_AVG	0.1901
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	0.6920
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2372
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2757
predicted_SO	1.3250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1380	0.1805	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6390	3.4753	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1901	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.2080	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6920	0.5673	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2372	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4670	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3210	0.2655	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2757	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.3250	1.3764	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 24

All-history rows before 20260518: 24

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	2.000	0.750	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	5.000	0.458	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.400	-0.009	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	2.000	0.083	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.400	-0.058	-0.150
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	4.000	-0.458	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.800	0.171	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.458	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.458	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.579	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.003
predicted_H	0.662	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.216	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	0.471	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.249	-0.005
predicted_H	0.622	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.037
predicted_R	0.194	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.388	-0.045
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.479	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.2105	0.1053	0.2105	0.0526	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.1143	0.1842	0.2000	0.1143	0.1143	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.60	24	-	85.000	22.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.2588	0.3077	0.3294	0.2588	0.1294	0.0706	0.1294

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6390
predicted_AVG	0.2103
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2648
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.3084
predicted_SO	0.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2630	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.6390	3.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2103	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2590	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7650	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2980	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5020	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3084	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4580	0.4930	0.4712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2096

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.667	-0.210	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	2.000	-0.795	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.750	-0.078	-0.500
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	1.000	-0.329	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.068	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.591	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.017
predicted_3B	0.077	0.009
predicted_AB	3.767	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	-0.023
predicted_H	0.935	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.089	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.379	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.085

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.043
predicted_BB	0.558	-0.010
predicted_H	0.878	-0.057
predicted_HBP	0.089	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.047
predicted_R	0.511	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.297	-0.034
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.075
predicted_SO	1.024	0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.7368	0.4210	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4634	0.6471	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.60	44	-	167.000	35.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	25.000	26.000	48.000	0.2096	0.3283	0.3293	0.2096	0.0180	0.0778	0.1557	0.2874

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0900
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2758
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_H	1.0280
predicted_HBP	0.0890
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_OBP	0.3785
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.4640
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1540	0.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0680	0.0900	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.7280	3.7674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2758	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5910	0.5360	0.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0280	0.9350	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0890	0.0890	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1230	0.1095	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3785	0.3788	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.5710	0.5692	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3610	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4640	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.8850	1.0062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 24

All-history rows before 20260518: 24

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	0.039	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.792	1.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.500	-0.061	-0.250
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.333	-0.039	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.010
predicted_H	0.712	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.062	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.442	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	1.134	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.748	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.008
predicted_H	0.669	-0.043
predicted_HBP	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.029
predicted_R	0.397	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.223	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.154	0.020

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579	0.4210
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0833	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.60	24	-	90.000	19.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	0.2111	0.3107	0.2889	0.2111	0.0111	0.0444	0.1222	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.1996
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0620
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2937
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.2871
predicted_SO	1.1490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1340	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7460	3.7485	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1996	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.4320	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7480	0.7123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0620	0.0620	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2937	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.4170	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2610	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2871	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.1490	1.1342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2079

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.061	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.061	3.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.333	-0.208	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.333	-0.270	-0.333
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.333	-0.327	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.364	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	1.000	-1.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.061	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.242	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.021	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.032
predicted_H	0.602	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	1.268	-0.096

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.021	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.005
predicted_H	0.565	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.053	0.000
predicted_HR	0.097	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.044
predicted_R	0.359	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.429	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.290	0.022

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2727	0.3571	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.2727	0.1818	0.3636
last_10	0.20	10	-	23.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.1739	0.3103	0.3043	0.1739	0.0435	0.1739	0.1739	0.3913
season	0.60	33	-	101.000	21.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	12.000	8.000	45.000	0.2079	0.2696	0.3267	0.2079	0.0198	0.1683	0.0792	0.4455

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9570
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2973
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.3721
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1130	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0610	2.9570	3.0205	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2420	0.3240	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6510	0.6015	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1110	0.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2973	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4560	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5220	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3721	0.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.1180	1.2682	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Max Meyer (676974) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	2.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	4.000	1.111	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.222	7.000	2.778	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.167	5.200	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	9.000	4.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	8.000	21.000	8.000	34.000	2.000	2.5714	1.0357	0.2857	0.7500	0.2857	1.2143	0.0714
last_10	0.35	9	47.200	17.000	38.000	17.000	54.000	4.000	3.2098	1.1538	0.3566	0.7972	0.3566	1.1329	0.0839
season	0.20	9	47.200	17.000	38.000	17.000	54.000	4.000	3.2098	1.1538	0.3566	0.7972	0.3566	1.1329	0.0839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8780
predicted_ER	2.0550
predicted_ERA	3.3124
predicted_H	4.6290
predicted_HR	0.5330
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.1430
predicted_WHIP	1.1651

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8780	1.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.0550	3.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3124	3.3124	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.6290	5.8166	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.5330	1.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	9.0000	6.1430	7.5740	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1651	1.1651	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	10
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676974
playerID	676974
playerName	Max Meyer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 14

All-history rows before 20260518: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.429	2.000	-1.429	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.829	2.000	-0.729	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.786	0.000	0.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	4.000	16.000	11.000	15.000	1.000	1.9636	1.4727	0.2182	0.8727	0.6000	0.8182	0.0546
season	0.20	14	27.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	25.000	1.000	1.3333	1.2963	0.1482	0.7407	0.5556	0.9259	0.0370

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7060
predicted_ER	0.5110
predicted_ERA	2.7407
predicted_H	1.4770
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4220
predicted_WHIP	1.3012

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7060	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5110	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7407	2.7407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4770	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1280	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.4220	1.7422	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3012	1.3012	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.33
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	43
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.878	1.200	0.122	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.6000	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.6562	0.4688	0.5625
season	0.20	18	17.200	6.000	12.000	13.000	17.000	3.0566	1.4151	0.3396	0.6793	0.7359	0.9623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	2.9680
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8820
predicted_WHIP	1.1921

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4020	0.1614	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3500	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9680	2.9680	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8640	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8820	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1921	1.1921	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Pete Fairbanks (664126) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.909	1.000	1.091	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.364	2.000	-0.364	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	9.0000	1.7500	1.0000	0.7500	1.0000	1.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	10.0000	1.5556	1.1111	1.0000	0.5556	1.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	11	10.000	10.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	9.0000	1.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_ER	0.6030
predicted_ERA	5.6665
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0950
predicted_WHIP	1.4062

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4620	0.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6030	0.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6665	5.6665	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8850	1.6125	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0950	1.0330	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4062	1.4062	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664126
playerID	664126
playerName	Pete Fairbanks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.0000	1.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.5000	0.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.1538	0.8077	0.4615	0.5769	0.2308	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	22	19.200	5.000	7.000	7.000	16.000	2.000	2.2881	0.7119	0.2542	0.3559	0.3559	0.8136	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_ER	0.3090
predicted_ERA	4.9750
predicted_H	0.4720
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4340
predicted_WHIP	1.2217

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2110	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3090	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9750	4.9750	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4720	0.1948	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0342	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4340	0.7664	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2217	1.2217	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260518_BAL@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.589968, "home_win_probability": 0.589968, "away_win_probability": 0.41003199999999995, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "confidence": 0.589968, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "BAL 2 - 6 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BAL 2 - 6 TB	TB	0.590	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BAL 2 - 6 TB	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BAL	4-6	0.400	3.40	4.20	-8	1W	cold	average
Home TB	7-3	0.700	5.10	3.80	13	1W	hot	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BAL	21-26	0.447	-44	-0.936	True
Home TB	30-15	0.667	25	0.556	True
Signal	-	-	1.492	1.821	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BAL	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target TB	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BAL	32	9	2	0	1	3	9
Player finalized TB	33	9	6	0	4	1	8
Player model fractional BAL	31.69	6.70	3.80	0.87	3.26	3.48	8.73
Player model fractional TB	32.91	8.03	4.80	0.91	4.21	2.89	7.08
Simulation box BAL	31	4	2	2	2	2	8
Simulation box TB	33	12	6	0	6	1	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BAL	Starter	Trevor Rogers	4	5	5	10	0	6.30	1.58	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.01	1.23	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1	0	1	1	0	3.61	1.16	True
Away BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1.20	1	0	1	1	2.54	1.01	True
Home TB	Starter	Shane McClanahan	5	1	5	3	1	2.64	1.07	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.68	1.40	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	1	0	0	0	1	2.47	0.89	True
Home TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1.20	1	2	1	0	4.27	1.47	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BAL

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	4.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.250	0.073	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	1.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.079	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.250	0.710	0.750
predicted_SO	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.183	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.579	-0.021
predicted_H	0.548	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.626	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.960	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.183	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.573	-0.006
predicted_H	0.532	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.020
predicted_R	0.595	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.313	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.283	-0.051
predicted_SO	0.970	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	10.000	0.1333	0.2973	0.2667	0.1333	0.0333	0.1000	0.2333	0.3333
season	0.60	20	-	62.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	12.000	19.000	0.1774	0.3289	0.2903	0.1774	0.0323	0.1129	0.1935	0.3065

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3270
predicted_AVG	0.1898
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3135
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.3341
predicted_SO	0.9770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1120	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.3270	3.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1898	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5420	0.5787	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6310	0.5481	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1200	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3135	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5860	0.6265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3820	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3341	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	0.9770	0.9599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2147

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.766	4.000	0.234	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.035	0.250
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.809	0.000	0.191	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.170	0.000	0.830	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	-0.050	0.250
predicted_R	0.574	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.574	0.000	0.426	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.511	1.000	0.489	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_SO	1.043	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	2.000	-0.043	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.766	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.574	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	1.043	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.794	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.071
predicted_H	0.792	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.497	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	1.040	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.004
predicted_H	0.769	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.003
predicted_R	0.472	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.018
predicted_SO	1.051	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.1795	0.1795	0.2821	0.1795	0.0256	0.1026	0.0000	0.2564
season	0.60	47	-	177.000	38.000	11.000	8.000	24.000	27.000	21.000	49.000	0.2147	0.3000	0.4124	0.2147	0.0452	0.1356	0.1186	0.2768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8350
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.2710
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.3680
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2340	0.1990	0.2196	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7660	3.8350	3.7944	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.2750	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8380	0.7921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1240	0.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5740	0.3870	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4680	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3680	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0430	1.0370	1.0405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	1.000	-0.196	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.261	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.261	5.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.800	-0.214	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	1.000	-0.043	-1.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.913	4.000	-0.913	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	1.000	-0.217	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.800	-0.269	-0.800
predicted_R	0.522	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.522	1.000	-0.522	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	2.000	-0.522	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	1.600	-0.423	-1.600
predicted_SO	1.283	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.283	0.000	-1.283	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.261	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.522	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	1.283	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.021
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.229	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.016
predicted_H	0.988	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	-0.136

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	4.229	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.003
predicted_H	0.959	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.011
predicted_R	0.443	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.490	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.158	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.261

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.5238	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2619	0.2955	0.4048	0.2619	0.0238	0.1191	0.0476	0.1429
season	0.60	46	-	196.000	42.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	24.000	14.000	59.000	0.2143	0.2689	0.4235	0.2143	0.0510	0.1225	0.0714	0.3010

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2480
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.1830
predicted_AVG	0.2388
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.9990
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.2867
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.4343
predicted_SO	0.9530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.2480	0.2175	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2610	4.1830	4.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2388	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.2650	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9990	0.9879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1810	0.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2867	0.2869	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5220	0.3890	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5260	0.5166	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4343	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2830	0.9530	1.1465	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1864

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.278	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.278	4.000	0.722	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.250	-0.186	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	1.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	2.000	-0.472	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.347	1.000	-0.347	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.111	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.278	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.294	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	0.005
predicted_H	0.684	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	1.096	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.294	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.003
predicted_H	0.664	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.137	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.040
predicted_R	0.335	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.442	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.053
predicted_SO	1.107	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5000	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000
season	0.60	36	-	118.000	22.000	4.000	5.000	17.000	12.000	11.000	40.000	0.1864	0.2615	0.3475	0.1864	0.0424	0.1441	0.0932	0.3390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3180
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3105
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.5190
predicted_SLG	0.4162
predicted_SO	1.0720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1360	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2780	3.3180	3.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3180	0.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7660	0.6837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1580	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3105	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3840	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5190	0.4652	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4162	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0720	1.0956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Weston Wilson (642215) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	4.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_BB	0.521	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.333	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	-0.067	0.083
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.250	0.417	0.417
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.521	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.682	0.182
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	-0.016
predicted_H	0.511	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.327	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.128	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.862	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.062
predicted_BB	0.500	-0.005
predicted_H	0.496	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.040
predicted_R	0.311	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.122	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.089
predicted_SO	0.871	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.20	10	-	24.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2083	0.3333
season	0.60	10	-	24.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2083	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.1000
predicted_AVG	0.2470
predicted_BB	0.4700
predicted_H	0.7660
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3526
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.1930
predicted_SLG	0.3227
predicted_SO	0.9290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0740	0.0225	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.1000	2.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2470	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5210	0.4700	0.5055	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.7660	0.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0500	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3526	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3620	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1930	0.1282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9290	0.8622	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	642215
playerID	642215
playerName	Weston Wilson
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 28

All-history rows before 20260518: 28

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.929	4.000	-0.929	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	0.000	-0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.928	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.016
predicted_H	0.836	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.643	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.928	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.002
predicted_H	0.811	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.179	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.011
predicted_R	0.441	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.610	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.768	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.929

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.4250	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	28	-	110.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	22.000	13.000	7.000	20.000	0.2545	0.3025	0.4909	0.2545	0.0546	0.2000	0.0636	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.2190
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.2623
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.6630
predicted_SLG	0.4227
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2220	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9290	3.9260	3.9278	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2100	0.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8600	0.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1910	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2623	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4660	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6630	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4227	0.4229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8330	0.7605	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 27

All-history rows before 20260518: 27

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2299

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	4.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.750	-0.230	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	3.000	-0.741	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.750	-0.287	-0.750
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	2.000	-0.370	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.148	2.000	-0.148	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.253	0.750	-0.253	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.111	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.272	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	0.003
predicted_H	0.806	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	1.079	-0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.272	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.043
predicted_BB	0.222	-0.002
predicted_H	0.782	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.046
predicted_R	0.359	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.231	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.090	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.4375	0.4706	0.4375	0.4375	0.1250	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.3438	0.3824	0.3750	0.3438	0.0938	0.0625	0.3125
season	0.60	27	-	87.000	20.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	30.000	0.2299	0.2872	0.2529	0.2299	0.0460	0.0690	0.3448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.2821
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3338
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.3339
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.0900	0.0801	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.3550	3.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2821	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2290	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9460	0.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3920	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2820	0.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3339	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0260	1.0788	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260513_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	2.000	-0.921	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.500	-0.267	-0.500
predicted_R	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.658	0.000	-0.658	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.750	-0.414	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.789	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	0.000	1.211	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.079	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.289	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.688	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.089	0.010
predicted_H	0.822	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.761	-0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.088	-0.001
predicted_H	0.799	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.034
predicted_R	0.269	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.769	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2162	0.2308	0.2703	0.2162	0.0000	0.0270	0.0270	0.1892
season	0.60	38	-	140.000	35.000	5.000	6.000	25.000	11.000	3.000	30.000	0.2500	0.2671	0.4143	0.2500	0.0429	0.1786	0.0214	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6930
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.1030
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2693
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.3830
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1970	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.6930	3.6876	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2480	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0790	0.1030	0.0886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9160	0.8224	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0990	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2693	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2890	0.2760	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4570	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3830	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.7190	0.7610	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.565	4.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.071	0.333
predicted_BB	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	0.000	0.065	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.200	0.081	0.300
predicted_R	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.630	1.000	-0.630	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.301	0.667
predicted_SO	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	3.000	-0.870	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.957	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.630	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.623	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.904	-0.052
predicted_H	0.912	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.000
predicted_R	0.604	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.260	-0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.938	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.623	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.895	-0.009
predicted_H	0.886	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.004
predicted_R	0.574	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.246	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.005
predicted_SO	0.948	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2059	0.1765	0.0000	0.0294	0.2941	0.3824
season	0.60	46	-	164.000	43.000	14.000	1.000	13.000	29.000	44.000	40.000	0.2622	0.4190	0.3659	0.2622	0.0061	0.0793	0.2683	0.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6420
predicted_AVG	0.2515
predicted_BB	0.8300
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3902
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.2590
predicted_SLG	0.3388
predicted_SO	1.0350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.2360	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.6420	3.6232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9570	0.8300	0.9045	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9160	0.9125	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0283	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3902	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6300	0.5680	0.6044	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2590	0.2596	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	1.0350	0.9382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Trevor Rogers (669432) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.857	3.000	-1.857	-3.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	3.143	6.000	1.857	-1.000
predicted_H	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_H	5.714	6.000	4.286	4.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.771	4.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.286	3.000	0.714	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.100	20.000	31.000	8.000	22.000	5.000	8.4375	1.8281	0.9375	1.4531	0.3750	1.0312	0.2344
last_10	0.35	7	34.100	22.000	40.000	13.000	30.000	5.000	5.7670	1.5437	0.6408	1.1650	0.3786	0.8738	0.1456
season	0.20	7	34.100	22.000	40.000	13.000	30.000	5.000	5.7670	1.5437	0.6408	1.1650	0.3786	0.8738	0.1456

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7200
predicted_ER	3.1970
predicted_ERA	6.3044
predicted_H	5.4720
predicted_HR	0.8160
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.4540
predicted_WHIP	1.5756

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7200	0.8152	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	3.1970	4.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3044	6.3044	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	5.4720	7.8540	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8160	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.4540	4.7412	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5756	1.5756	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	10
R	5
ER	5
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	5.77
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	73
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669432
playerID	669432
playerName	Trevor Rogers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 10

All-history rows before 20260518: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.080	1.000	0.020	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.6000	0.3000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	2.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.6316	0.6316	0.8684
season	0.20	10	12.200	2.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.6316	0.6316	0.8684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_ER	0.4450
predicted_ERA	3.0071
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1260
predicted_WHIP	1.2305

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5340	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4450	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0071	3.0071	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1070	0.4082	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1160	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1260	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2305	1.2305	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.985	1.100	0.015	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	3.000	-0.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.0000	0.8333	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333	1.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	3.0000	1.1667	0.3333	0.8333	0.3333	1.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	19	21.100	6.000	15.000	5.000	25.000	4.000	2.5312	0.9375	0.2812	0.7031	0.2344	1.1719	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	3.6100
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1630
predicted_WHIP	1.1582

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3910	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4500	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6100	3.6100	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9090	0.9617	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2060	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1630	1.0686	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1582	1.1582	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.048	0.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.095	1.000	0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.886	1.000	0.314	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1875	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3333	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	21	20.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	24.000	1.000	0.4500	0.4500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3500	1.2000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5400
predicted_H	0.6040
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1580
predicted_WHIP	1.0094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4050	0.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2820	0.7025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5400	2.5400	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6040	0.8359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1580	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0094	1.0094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: TB

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2710

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.229	0.500
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.000	0.228	0.600
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.035	0.500
predicted_SO	1.071	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	1.000	-1.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.670	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.623	0.028
predicted_H	0.927	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.647	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.064	-0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.001
predicted_BB	0.628	0.005
predicted_H	0.950	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.078	0.000
predicted_HR	0.134	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.003
predicted_R	0.577	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.674	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.003
predicted_SO	1.055	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3750	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.2778	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	10.000	0.2647	0.4130	0.4118	0.2647	0.0294	0.1765	0.2353	0.2941
season	0.60	42	-	155.000	42.000	6.000	8.000	34.000	23.000	25.000	45.000	0.2710	0.3723	0.4645	0.2710	0.0516	0.2193	0.1613	0.2903

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6400
predicted_AVG	0.2578
predicted_BB	0.6630
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3705
predicted_R	0.5600
predicted_RBI	0.6560
predicted_SLG	0.4137
predicted_SO	1.0530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1690	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6400	3.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.6630	0.6229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9380	0.9274	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1320	0.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3705	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.5600	0.5529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6560	0.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4137	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	1.0530	1.0636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2952

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.860	3.000	1.140	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.333	0.105	0.067
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	1.000	-0.372	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	1.000	0.860	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	0.024	-0.100
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.628	1.000	0.372	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	1.333	-0.058	-0.933
predicted_SO	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.933	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	0.005
predicted_H	1.043	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.095	-
predicted_HR	0.201	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.482	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.611	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.504	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.007
predicted_BB	0.381	0.003
predicted_H	1.068	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.205	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.007
predicted_R	0.503	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.637	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.013
predicted_SO	0.500	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.2381	0.3333	0.5238	0.2381	0.0952	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2195	0.2826	0.3902	0.2195	0.0488	0.1220	0.0732	0.1463
season	0.60	43	-	166.000	49.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	27.000	22.000	16.000	22.000	0.2952	0.3757	0.4578	0.2952	0.0422	0.1626	0.0964	0.1325

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.9520
predicted_AVG	0.2653
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.0950
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.3426
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.6130
predicted_SLG	0.4490
predicted_SO	0.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0930	0.0920	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9520	3.9331	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2653	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3850	0.3773	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0480	1.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0950	0.0950	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2020	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3426	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4390	0.4821	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6130	0.6112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4490	0.4490	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.4930	0.5042	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2573

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	2.000	0.114	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.007	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.523	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.523	2.000	0.477	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.750	0.056	-0.350
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	2.000	0.477	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.475	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.491	2.000	-0.241	-1.750
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.523	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.475	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.919	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.493	-0.030
predicted_H	0.986	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.236	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.630	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.475	0.000
predicted_SO	0.731	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.919	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	0.004
predicted_H	1.010	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.241	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.007
predicted_R	0.657	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.591	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.470	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.725	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	0.2439	0.3111	0.4878	0.2439	0.0732	0.1707	0.0976	0.1463
season	0.60	44	-	171.000	44.000	4.000	12.000	23.000	28.000	23.000	32.000	0.2573	0.3436	0.4912	0.2573	0.0702	0.1345	0.1345	0.1871

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9660
predicted_AVG	0.2581
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.3336
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.5910
predicted_SLG	0.4752
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1230	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.9660	3.9189	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2581	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5230	0.4490	0.4926	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0240	0.9863	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2450	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3336	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.6220	0.6302	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5910	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4750	0.4752	0.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7360	0.7307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2674

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.739	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.739	4.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.500	-0.017	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	1.000	-0.043	-1.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.058	-0.250
predicted_R	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.750	-0.134	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.783	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.739	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.783	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.786	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.005
predicted_H	0.887	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.389	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	0.051

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.223	0.002
predicted_H	0.908	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.020
predicted_R	0.559	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.3810	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.4000	0.2750	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	23	-	86.000	23.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	18.000	0.2674	0.3077	0.3837	0.2674	0.0116	0.0930	0.0581	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2583
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3021
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.3886
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.3430	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7390	3.8630	3.7858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2583	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.2290	0.2215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9980	0.8872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3021	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.4880	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3380	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3886	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7830	0.9190	0.8343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2831

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_3B	0.073	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_AB	4.049	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.049	4.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	0.000	-0.146	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	-0.075	0.250
predicted_SO	0.439	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.439	1.000	1.561	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.024	-
predicted_3B	0.073	-
predicted_AB	4.049	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.220	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.439	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.006
predicted_3B	0.080	0.007
predicted_AB	4.041	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.235	0.015
predicted_H	0.992	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.460	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	4.041	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.237	0.002
predicted_H	1.016	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.022
predicted_R	0.588	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.456	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.049

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.3810	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000
season	0.60	41	-	166.000	47.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	21.000	9.000	18.000	0.2831	0.3164	0.3253	0.2831	0.0482	0.0542	0.1084

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0900
predicted_AB	4.0300
predicted_AVG	0.2722
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3149
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.3407
predicted_SO	0.4900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0240	0.0400	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0730	0.0900	0.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0490	4.0300	4.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2200	0.2560	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0970	0.9921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3149	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6390	0.5638	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2390	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3407	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4390	0.4900	0.4598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Carson Williams (700246) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

System season_avg: 0.1300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1304

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.130	0.000	0.370	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.333	0.500
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.174	0.000	0.576	0.750
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.803	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.022
predicted_H	0.606	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.410	-0.090

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.803	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.190	0.002
predicted_H	0.620	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.037
predicted_R	0.659	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.040
predicted_SO	1.398	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.20	6	-	23.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.1304	0.1667	0.1739	0.1304	0.1304	0.0435	0.3913
season	0.60	6	-	23.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.1304	0.1667	0.1739	0.1304	0.1304	0.0435	0.3913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.1864
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.6950
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2404
predicted_R	0.5460
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.2943
predicted_SO	1.1870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1880	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.7290	3.8031	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1864	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2430	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6950	0.6059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2404	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5460	0.6322	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5240	0.4570	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2943	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.1870	1.4100	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260403_TB@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	700246
playerID	700246
playerName	Carson Williams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.091	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.091	3.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.333	0.118	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.184	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	3.000	-0.424	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.294	1.000	0.039	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.848	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.848	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.008
predicted_3B	0.075	0.014
predicted_AB	3.167	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.431	0.007
predicted_H	0.668	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.552	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.435	0.004
predicted_H	0.684	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.024
predicted_R	0.496	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.819	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4706	0.2941	0.4118	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.2581	0.3611	0.4194	0.2581	0.2581	0.1613	0.2258
season	0.60	33	-	102.000	22.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	15.000	14.000	28.000	0.2157	0.3162	0.2941	0.2157	0.1373	0.1373	0.2745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.2860
predicted_AVG	0.2407
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3344
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.6490
predicted_SLG	0.3628
predicted_SO	0.7920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1410	0.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0980	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0910	3.2860	3.1671	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2407	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.4420	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7910	0.6685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3344	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5080	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6490	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3628	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8480	0.7920	0.8261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.500	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	0.067	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.600	-0.117	-0.350
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.489	1.500	0.011	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.099	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.011
predicted_H	0.840	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.685	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.099	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.280	0.002
predicted_H	0.860	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.010
predicted_R	0.415	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.508	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	2.000	2.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.5862	0.3448	0.0690	0.2759	0.1035	0.2069
season	0.60	15	-	45.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.3111	0.3673	0.4889	0.3111	0.0444	0.2000	0.0889	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2920
predicted_AVG	0.2843
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3467
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.4710
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1550	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2920	3.0990	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2843	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2980	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9360	0.8395	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1368	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3467	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3940	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5400	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4710	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7190	0.6846	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	2
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 27

All-history rows before 20260518: 27

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2872

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.481	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.481	4.000	-0.481	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.046	0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.250	-0.052	0.000
predicted_R	0.296	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.296	1.000	0.704	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.250	-0.039	0.083
predicted_SO	0.593	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.593	0.000	-0.593	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.481	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.593	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.495	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.024	0.024
predicted_H	0.895	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.331	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.197	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.495	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.917	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.039
predicted_R	0.345	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.205	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.623	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3529	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.0000	0.0000	0.1818
season	0.60	27	-	94.000	27.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	16.000	0.2872	0.3021	0.3723	0.2872	0.0106	0.0745	0.1702

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5170
predicted_AVG	0.2847
predicted_BB	0.0620
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3061
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.2240
predicted_SLG	0.3597
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.1250	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4810	3.5170	3.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0620	0.0236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0020	0.8954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3061	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.3880	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2240	0.1967	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3597	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5930	0.6850	0.6280	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Shane McClanahan (663556) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	1.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.812	5.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.125	7.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	4.000	19.000	4.000	28.000	0.000	1.3846	0.8846	0.1538	0.7308	0.1538	1.0769	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	39.200	10.000	24.000	15.000	41.000	1.000	2.2689	0.9832	0.2521	0.6050	0.3781	1.0336	0.0252
season	0.20	8	39.200	10.000	24.000	15.000	41.000	1.000	2.2689	0.9832	0.2521	0.6050	0.3781	1.0336	0.0252

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4600
predicted_ER	1.5090
predicted_ERA	2.6427
predicted_H	4.0400
predicted_HR	0.2830
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.2420
predicted_WHIP	1.0701

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4600	1.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5090	1.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6427	2.6427	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.0400	3.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2830	0.6505	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.2420	4.0930	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0701	1.0701	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.27
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	663556
playerID	663556
playerName	Shane McClanahan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.876	1.000	0.224	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	0.000	-0.095	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.000	3.8571	1.9286	0.4286	0.8571	1.0714	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.6667	0.5556	1.3333	0.0000
season	0.20	21	19.100	6.000	13.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.7931	1.0862	0.3103	0.6724	0.4138	1.1897	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5440
predicted_ER	0.4090
predicted_ERA	3.6798
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1370
predicted_WHIP	1.4018

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5440	0.2235	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4090	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6798	3.6798	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8580	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1370	2.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4018	1.4018	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	1.100	-0.144	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4545	0.0000	0.2727	0.1818	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	17	22.000	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	1.2273	0.2727	0.8636	0.3636	0.7273	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.2840
predicted_ERA	2.4749
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8370
predicted_WHIP	0.8917

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2740	0.6919	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2840	0.1205	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4749	2.4749	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6460	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8370	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8917	0.8917	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	0.100	0.527	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	1.000	0.818	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	1.1250	0.7500	1.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	11	8.100	5.000	11.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0400	0.6000	1.3200	0.7200	1.5600	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.3160
predicted_ERA	4.2713
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7640
predicted_WHIP	1.4674

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3160	0.7726	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2713	4.2713	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6810	0.8939	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0970	0.6998	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7640	1.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4674	1.4674	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIA@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

20260518_BOS@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.549221, "home_win_probability": 0.549221, "away_win_probability": 0.45077900000000004, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 KC", "confidence": 0.549221, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "BOS 2 - 3 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	BOS 2 - 3 KC	KC	0.549	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	BOS 2 - 3 KC	KC	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away BOS	4-6	0.400	2.20	3.10	-9	1L	cold	strong
Home KC	3-7	0.300	3.70	4.50	-8	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away BOS	19-27	0.413	-20	-0.435	True
Home KC	20-27	0.426	-21	-0.447	True
Signal	-	-	-0.012	0.007	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target BOS	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target KC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized BOS	33	9	0	0	1	0	8
Player finalized KC	32	9	1	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional BOS	33.25	7.00	2.98	0.72	3.12	2.37	7.05
Player model fractional KC	32.53	7.11	3.76	0.93	3.36	3.11	7.69
Simulation box BOS	31	4	2	1	2	2	9
Simulation box KC	29	5	3	0	3	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away BOS	Starter	Sonny Gray	5	1	5	3	2	3.36	1.23	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1	2	0	2	0	2.64	1.16	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	1	0	1	0	0	3.40	1.20	True
Away BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	0	1	0	2	3.86	1.13	True
Home KC	Starter	Seth Lugo	5.10	1	4	2	2	4.69	1.53	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	1	0	1	0	0	3.23	1.23	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1	1	1	2	0	3.15	1.37	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	John Schreiber	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.38	1.34	True
Home KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	1	0	1	0	0	3.89	1.44	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: BOS

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	1.000	-0.140	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.333	-0.003	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.907	1.000	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.333	-0.109	-0.083
predicted_R	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.667	-0.218	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.186	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.186	0.000	-0.186	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.465	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	1.186	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.610	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.039
predicted_H	0.792	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.437	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	-0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.423	-0.003
predicted_H	0.778	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.182	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.011
predicted_R	0.424	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.465	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.152	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2619	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.60	43	-	154.000	39.000	6.000	9.000	25.000	20.000	20.000	51.000	0.2532	0.3587	0.4675	0.2532	0.0584	0.1623	0.1299	0.3312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6530
predicted_AVG	0.2297
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3091
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.4449
predicted_SO	1.0810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1990	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.6530	3.6104	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4650	0.3700	0.4261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8390	0.7923	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1950	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3091	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.3960	0.4368	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5050	0.4784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4449	0.4450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1860	1.0810	1.1431	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.200	0.500
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.133	0.000	0.867	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.000	0.128	0.500
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.422	0.000	1.578	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.000	0.791	1.250
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.796	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.056
predicted_H	1.087	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.796	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.003
predicted_H	1.068	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.002
predicted_R	0.439	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.348	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.757	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.3684	0.2632	0.0263	0.0790	0.0526	0.1842
season	0.60	45	-	170.000	51.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	21.000	20.000	35.000	0.3000	0.3717	0.4588	0.3000	0.0353	0.1118	0.1177	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8230
predicted_AVG	0.2947
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	1.1270
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3453
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.4244
predicted_SO	0.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1570	0.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.8230	3.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2947	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3070	0.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1270	1.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1040	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3453	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4300	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3710	0.3586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4244	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.7120	0.7509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2388

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.350	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.350	3.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.000	-0.092	0.250
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.350	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	0.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.374	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	-0.061
predicted_H	0.664	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.100	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.334	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.327	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.374	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.003
predicted_H	0.652	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.014
predicted_R	0.324	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.240	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.255	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.330	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.1333	0.1765	0.1333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1818	0.2222	0.1818	0.1818	0.0303	0.0303	0.0606
season	0.60	20	-	67.000	16.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2388	0.3418	0.2836	0.2388	0.0746	0.1343	0.0896

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.2167
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.1000
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2904
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.2760
predicted_SLG	0.2778
predicted_SO	0.3740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1110	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3500	3.4160	3.3744	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2167	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.2840	0.3887	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7400	0.6643	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1000	0.1000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2904	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.3070	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2760	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2778	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3000	0.3740	0.3273	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 35

All-history rows before 20260518: 35

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.314	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.314	4.000	-0.314	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	0.686	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.686	1.000	1.314	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.314	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.229	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.686	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.387	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.004
predicted_H	0.610	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.387	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.002
predicted_H	0.599	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.025
predicted_R	0.243	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.235	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.705	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.2500	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.60	35	-	116.000	24.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	24.000	0.2069	0.2791	0.3017	0.2069	0.0172	0.0776	0.0862	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4990
predicted_AVG	0.2009
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2650
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.2770
predicted_SLG	0.3161
predicted_SO	0.7210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1050	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3140	3.4990	3.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2009	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2750	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7030	0.6104	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2290	0.2820	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2770	0.2425	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3161	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6860	0.7210	0.6998	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 39

All-history rows before 20260518: 39

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.190	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.154	5.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.400	-0.185	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	2.000	-0.769	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.400	-0.246	-0.400
predicted_R	0.487	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.600	-0.309	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.154	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	2.000	1.846	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.154	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.004
predicted_H	0.745	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.427	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.309	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.154	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.002
predicted_H	0.732	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.227	-0.018
predicted_R	0.415	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.300	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.280	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.164	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.190

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.2381	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1463	0.2222	0.2195	0.1463	0.0000	0.0000	0.0732	0.2927
season	0.60	39	-	162.000	30.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	11.000	45.000	0.1852	0.2457	0.3086	0.1852	0.0247	0.1111	0.0679	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1010
predicted_AVG	0.1799
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2456
predicted_R	0.3410
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.2940
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2500	0.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1900	4.1010	4.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1799	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.2720	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7380	0.7451	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0710	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2456	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.3410	0.4275	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3080	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.1560	1.1548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connor Wong (657136) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.000	-0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.188	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.108	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.622	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.104	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.223	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.108	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.002
predicted_H	0.611	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.048
predicted_R	0.216	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.363	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.678	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.1875	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2333	0.1667	0.1667	0.1333	0.2333
season	0.60	16	-	48.000	12.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3542	0.2500	0.1458	0.0833	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.7590
predicted_HBP	0.1040
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3045
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.4570
predicted_SLG	0.3319
predicted_SO	0.7640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.2180	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3120	3.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2291	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2510	0.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7590	0.6222	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1040	0.1040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3045	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1880	0.2880	0.2226	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4570	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3319	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7640	0.6730	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	657136
playerID	657136
playerName	Connor Wong
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Nick Sogard (686765) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.861	-0.139
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.966	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.048
predicted_H	0.810	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.084	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.861	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.966	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.044
predicted_BB	0.048	-0.000
predicted_H	0.795	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.091	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.210	-0.089
predicted_R	0.081	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.444	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.528	0.120
predicted_SO	0.983	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.60	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2447
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.5320
predicted_SLG	0.4077
predicted_SO	0.8700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.2730	0.8605	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8240	3.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2447	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2510	0.0482	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9360	0.8099	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1080	0.0935	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2987	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4360	0.0837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5320	0.4577	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4077	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8700	0.9751	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686765
playerID	686765
playerName	Nick Sogard
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.000	-0.110	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	0.083	0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.968	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.982	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.104	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.968	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.045	-0.000
predicted_H	0.964	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.051
predicted_R	0.355	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.350	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.022
predicted_SO	0.572	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.2500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	6	-	24.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3600	0.4167	0.3333	0.0833	0.1250
season	0.60	6	-	24.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3600	0.4167	0.3333	0.0833	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1260
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8910
predicted_AVG	0.2530
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.1040
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3019
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.3419
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1260	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8910	3.9683	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2530	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1580	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9850	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1040	0.1040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4460	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3620	0.3606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3419	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7340	0.5680	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	-0.034	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	-0.371	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.370	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.889	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.028
predicted_H	0.820	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.391	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.370	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.002
predicted_H	0.805	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.072	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.021
predicted_R	0.485	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.378	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.714	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3810	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	10.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2683	0.4500	0.2500	0.0250	0.1500	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.60	16	-	62.000	14.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2258	0.2836	0.3710	0.2258	0.0161	0.1129	0.0806	0.1774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3600
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9140
predicted_AVG	0.2365
predicted_BB	0.2340
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2819
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3908
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.3600	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.9140	3.8890	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2365	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2340	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9260	0.8197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2819	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4980	0.4993	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4400	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3908	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.7440	0.7081	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Sonny Gray (543243) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.714	1.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.429	2.000	-1.429	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.757	6.000	0.243	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	6.000	2.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.000	7.000	21.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	2.6250	1.1667	0.2917	0.8750	0.2917	0.5417	0.1250
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	12.000	31.000	8.000	21.000	4.000	3.1765	1.1471	0.3529	0.9118	0.2353	0.6177	0.1177
season	0.20	7	34.000	12.000	31.000	8.000	21.000	4.000	3.1765	1.1471	0.3529	0.9118	0.2353	0.6177	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5520
predicted_ER	1.8110
predicted_ERA	3.3599
predicted_H	4.3980
predicted_HR	0.6120
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.5060
predicted_WHIP	1.2265

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5520	1.7877	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8110	1.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3599	3.3599	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3980	3.6626	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6120	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.5060	4.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2265	1.2265	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	543243
playerID	543243
playerName	Sonny Gray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.438	2.000	-0.438	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	1.938	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.438	0.000	1.562	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.0000	0.8000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	5.000	5.000	15.000	0.0000	1.0345	0.0000	0.5172	0.5172	1.5517
season	0.20	16	15.200	1.000	7.000	7.000	21.000	0.5745	0.8936	0.0638	0.4468	0.4468	1.3404

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.6380
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1730
predicted_WHIP	1.1573

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4750	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2930	1.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6380	2.6380	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6820	1.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1730	0.4568	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1573	1.1573	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BOS@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.757	0.200	0.243	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000	0.8571
last_10	0.35	7	6.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.0000	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667
season	0.20	7	6.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.0000	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	3.3972
predicted_H	0.8830
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.2034

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3210	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3972	3.3972	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8830	0.2726	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9470	0.9836	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2034	1.2034	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	2.000	-0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	3.4839	0.8710	0.3871	0.7742	0.0968	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	3.1154	1.0962	0.3462	0.7500	0.3462	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_ER	0.2600
predicted_ERA	3.8615
predicted_H	0.5030
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6820
predicted_WHIP	1.1313

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.1820	1.2735	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2600	0.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8615	3.8615	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5030	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0244	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6820	0.8729	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1313	1.1313	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: KC

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.911	2.000	0.089	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	1.000	0.045	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	1.000	-0.156	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.750	0.007	-0.500
predicted_R	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	2.500	-0.102	-2.250
predicted_SO	0.911	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.911	0.000	0.089	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.911	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.911	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.882	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.021
predicted_H	0.808	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.906	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.176	-0.001
predicted_H	0.793	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.159	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.019
predicted_R	0.369	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.407	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.912	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=34.0, weight=0.213, BvP AVG=0.176)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.911

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1892	0.2381	0.3514	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	45	-	176.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	17.000	7.000	41.000	0.2045	0.2434	0.3523	0.2046	0.0398	0.1136	0.0398	0.2329

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8400
predicted_AVG	0.2174
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.2582
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3699
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0820	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9110	3.8400	3.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2174	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.2070	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8350	0.8084	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1670	0.1629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3840	0.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4330	0.4194	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3699	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9110	0.9000	0.9065	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2441

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.528	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.528	4.000	0.472	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.500	-0.244	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.861	2.000	-0.861	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.500	-0.319	-0.500
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	1.250	-0.409	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.528	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.543	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.014
predicted_H	0.793	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.491	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	-0.072

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.002
predicted_H	0.778	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.126	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.029
predicted_R	0.476	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.223	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.045	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.2222
season	0.60	36	-	127.000	31.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	12.000	40.000	0.2441	0.3191	0.4094	0.2441	0.0315	0.0551	0.0945	0.3150

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.5670
predicted_AVG	0.2487
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3129
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.2590
predicted_SLG	0.4325
predicted_SO	0.9310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1940	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5280	3.5670	3.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2487	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2970	0.3186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8870	0.7926	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1292	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3129	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.5190	0.4907	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2590	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4325	0.4322	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.9310	1.0392	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2640

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	4.100	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.045	5.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.200	-0.264	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.068	1.000	-1.068	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.200	-0.328	-0.200
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	1.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.200	-0.399	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	4.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.122	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	-0.008
predicted_H	0.975	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.351	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.611	-0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.122	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.399	-0.002
predicted_H	0.957	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.001
predicted_R	0.584	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.389	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.002
predicted_SO	0.615	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.1304	0.2000	0.1739	0.1304	0.0000	0.0435	0.0870	0.0870
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	0.2558	0.3191	0.3488	0.2558	0.0000	0.1163	0.0930	0.0698
season	0.60	44	-	178.000	47.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	25.000	18.000	28.000	0.2640	0.3283	0.3989	0.2640	0.0169	0.1011	0.1011	0.1573

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.1540
predicted_AVG	0.2367
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3014
predicted_R	0.6490
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.3507
predicted_SO	0.5760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2950	0.2830	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1000	4.1540	4.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2367	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3890	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9830	0.9753	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3014	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.6490	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4020	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3507	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.5760	0.6113	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	2
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2036

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	1.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	4.000	-2.795	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.250	-0.204	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	1.545	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	1.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.464	0.500
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.250	-0.341	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.841	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.841	1.000	0.159	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.841	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.803	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	-0.017
predicted_H	0.758	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.405	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.822	-0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.803	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.003
predicted_H	0.744	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.005
predicted_R	0.393	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.485	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.307	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.827	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-3.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.3077	0.2308	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.1538
season	0.60	44	-	167.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	22.000	18.000	20.000	37.000	0.2036	0.2865	0.3413	0.2036	0.0299	0.1317	0.1198	0.2216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0260
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2059
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.2834
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.5140
predicted_SLG	0.3111
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0720	0.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0260	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.8150	3.8032	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2059	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4130	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7850	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0930	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2834	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.4000	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5140	0.4999	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3111	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8410	0.7950	0.8221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	1
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	4.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.325	-0.250
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.250	-0.400	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.158	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	2.000	0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.423	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.722	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	-0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.471	-0.003
predicted_H	0.708	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.020
predicted_R	0.417	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.376	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.131	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3500	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	13.000	0.2121	0.3077	0.2727	0.2121	0.0000	0.0606	0.1515	0.3939
season	0.60	38	-	130.000	30.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	18.000	44.000	0.2308	0.3245	0.4000	0.2308	0.0461	0.1462	0.1385	0.3385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4270
predicted_AVG	0.2331
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3634
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1500	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.4270	3.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2331	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.4740	0.4740	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7990	0.7218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4030	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4270	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3634	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	1.0760	1.1251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3027

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.936	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.936	4.000	-0.936	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	0.000	0.511	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.191	0.000	-1.191	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.000	-0.126	0.250
predicted_R	0.468	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.468	0.000	-0.468	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.000	-0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.745	0.000	-0.745	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.936	-
predicted_AVG	0.307	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.468	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	0.745	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.895	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.307	0.000
predicted_BB	0.510	0.021
predicted_H	1.173	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.895	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.508	-0.003
predicted_H	1.151	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.196	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.014
predicted_R	0.460	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.526	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.518	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.718	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.235)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.936

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	0.3947	0.4773	0.7632	0.3947	0.1053	0.1842	0.1579	0.1053
season	0.60	47	-	185.000	56.000	12.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	22.000	23.000	35.000	0.3027	0.3762	0.4919	0.3027	0.0378	0.1243	0.1243	0.1892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8370
predicted_AVG	0.3071
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	1.1780
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3908
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.5460
predicted_SLG	0.5287
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.2260	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9360	3.8370	3.8951	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3070	0.3071	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.5410	0.5105	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.1780	1.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3908	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4680	0.4820	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5460	0.5425	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5287	0.5289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7450	0.6710	0.7144	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.351	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.351	4.000	0.649	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	0.274	0.250
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	1.000	1.243	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.153	0.250
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	1.595	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.250	0.411	0.500
predicted_SO	1.054	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.054	2.000	-0.054	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.351	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	1.054	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.354	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.528	-0.013
predicted_H	0.606	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.167	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.366	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.978	-0.076

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.354	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.525	-0.003
predicted_H	0.595	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.040
predicted_R	0.356	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.347	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.983	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.1333	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2927	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.0909	0.1515	0.2424
season	0.60	37	-	124.000	28.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	20.000	39.000	0.2258	0.3467	0.3387	0.2258	0.0242	0.1210	0.1613	0.3145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3590
predicted_AVG	0.2010
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.1670
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3285
predicted_R	0.3090
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.2878
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1110	0.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3510	3.3590	3.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2010	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.5090	0.5282	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6750	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1670	0.1670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3285	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3090	0.3665	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3980	0.3573	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2878	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0540	0.8640	0.9778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 27

All-history rows before 20260518: 27

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2262

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	1.741	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	3.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.440	0.333
predicted_BB	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	1.000	1.296	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.333	0.428	0.333
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.333	0.917	1.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.074	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.204	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.083	0.009
predicted_H	0.623	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.655	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.204	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.083	-0.001
predicted_H	0.611	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.031
predicted_R	0.368	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.658	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	0.2121	0.2121	0.4545	0.2121	0.0606	0.1515	0.0000	0.1818
season	0.60	27	-	84.000	19.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	2.000	18.000	0.2262	0.2386	0.4167	0.2262	0.0357	0.1429	0.0238	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2212
predicted_BB	0.0990
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2423
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.4074
predicted_SO	0.6340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.1960	0.2353	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.3580	3.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2212	0.2211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0740	0.0990	0.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7430	0.6225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1410	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2423	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3950	0.3794	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4850	0.4070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4074	0.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6340	0.6546	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2783

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.194	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.194	4.000	-1.194	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.500	-0.278	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	2.000	-0.889	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.500	-0.003	-0.167
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.750	-0.426	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.194	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.016
predicted_3B	0.041	0.013
predicted_AB	3.298	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	0.008
predicted_H	0.785	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.298	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.200	-0.001
predicted_H	0.771	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.055	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.044
predicted_R	0.341	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.212	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.058
predicted_SO	0.797	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3636	0.2424	0.0000	0.0606	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.60	36	-	115.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	13.000	7.000	28.000	0.2783	0.3360	0.4261	0.2783	0.0261	0.0870	0.0609	0.2435

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0620
predicted_AB	3.4590
predicted_AVG	0.2694
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3215
predicted_R	0.3370
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.4220
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2090	0.1835	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0620	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1940	3.4590	3.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2694	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2130	0.2015	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9320	0.7852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3215	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.3370	0.3516	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2620	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8150	0.7926	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Seth Lugo (607625) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.111	2.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.444	5.000	-1.444	-4.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	6.222	8.000	-4.222	-6.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.722	5.000	-0.622	0.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.111	4.000	-1.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	18.000	38.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	5.7176	1.8000	0.6353	1.3412	0.4588	0.8823	0.0353
last_10	0.35	9	52.200	22.000	56.000	19.000	46.000	1.000	3.7595	1.4241	0.4177	1.0633	0.3608	0.8734	0.0190
season	0.20	9	52.200	22.000	56.000	19.000	46.000	1.000	3.7595	1.4241	0.4177	1.0633	0.3608	0.8734	0.0190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3330
predicted_ER	2.9990
predicted_ERA	4.6948
predicted_H	6.4900
predicted_HR	0.3750
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.2000
predicted_WHIP	1.5347

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3330	2.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.9990	1.9978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6948	4.6948	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	6.4900	4.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3750	0.6880	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.2000	4.5990	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5347	1.5347	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.76
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	607625
playerID	607625
playerName	Seth Lugo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.942	1.200	0.058	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.368	1.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.9375	0.3750	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.7500	0.2812	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	26.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.5000	0.3000	1.3000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.3590
predicted_ERA	3.2323
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1320
predicted_WHIP	1.2259

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3560	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3590	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2323	3.2323	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8700	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1320	1.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2259	1.2259	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	1.0000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.9000	1.2000	0.1000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	20	19.100	7.000	15.000	13.000	17.000	3.2586	1.4483	0.3621	0.7759	0.6724	0.8793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	3.1514
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9530
predicted_WHIP	1.3657

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4810	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3500	0.7329	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1514	3.1514	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8850	1.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9530	0.9807	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3657	1.3657	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	-0.842	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	0.100	-0.553	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.368	0.000	1.632	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.3000	0.2000	0.9000	0.4000	0.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	17.100	7.000	16.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	0.9231	0.5769	0.4038	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	3.3750
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5720
predicted_WHIP	1.3445

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3220	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3010	0.1203	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3750	3.3750	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7570	0.3025	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5720	1.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3445	1.3445	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.722	2.000	-0.722	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.7500	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.2500	1.3750	0.2500	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250
season	0.20	18	15.200	5.000	13.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	2.8723	1.3404	0.3191	0.8298	0.5106	0.7660	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	3.8918
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6060
predicted_WHIP	1.4441

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2650	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2990	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8918	3.8918	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7350	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6060	0.8466	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4441	1.4441	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_KC@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260518_CHW@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.539312, "home_win_probability": 0.460688, "away_win_probability": 0.539312, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "confidence": 0.539312, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 4 SEA", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 3 SEA", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHW 5 - 4 SEA	CHW	0.539	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHW 5 - 3 SEA	CHW	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHW	7-3	0.700	5.80	5.50	3	2W	hot	weak
Home SEA	4-6	0.400	4.50	4.30	2	3L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CHW	24-22	0.522	-7	-0.152	True
Home SEA	22-26	0.458	6	0.125	True
Signal	-	-	0.277	0.182	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-10	SEA @ CHW	1 - 2	CHW	1	close
2026-05-09	SEA @ CHW	1 - 6	CHW	5	blowout
2026-05-08	SEA @ CHW	12 - 8	SEA	4	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHW	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target SEA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHW	32	9	4	0	3	2	10
Player finalized SEA	32	9	3	0	2	2	8
Player model fractional CHW	30.78	7.08	4.64	1.47	4.18	3.69	7.74
Player model fractional SEA	30.80	6.67	4.49	0.84	3.12	3.90	7.38
Simulation box CHW	31	4	5	1	5	6	9
Simulation box SEA	34	7	3	2	3	4	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHW	Starter	Noah Schultz	6	1	4	4	3	4.48	1.32	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1	0	0	1	1	2.97	1.41	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	0	0	0	3.40	1.25	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	1	1	1	2	0	4.50	1.35	True
Away CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	0	1	0	0	0	4.67	1.40	True
Home SEA	Starter	Bryan Woo	5.20	2	6	2	5	4.63	1.14	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1	0	0	0	0	3.97	1.29	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	3	2	2	1	4.09	1.27	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	0	1	0	0	4.14	1.43	True
Home SEA	Middle Reliever	Alex Hoppe	0.10	0	0	0	0	4.27	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHW

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.123	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	0.005
predicted_H	0.670	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.219	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	0.055

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.123	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000
predicted_H	0.674	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.025
predicted_R	0.222	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.803	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3235	0.3871	0.2581	0.0323	0.1290	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.60	12	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.1111	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3820
predicted_AVG	0.2413
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3002
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.3876
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1380	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3820	3.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2413	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2660	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8160	0.6697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1150	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3002	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3280	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4310	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3876	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9190	0.8046	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Luisangel Acuña (682668) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 25

All-history rows before 20260518: 25

System season_avg: 0.1560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.080	2.000	-0.080	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.026	0.250
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.169	0.000	-0.169	0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.520	0.000	1.480	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	0.520	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.103	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.019
predicted_H	0.433	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.000
predicted_R	0.282	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.152	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.140	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.260	0.000
predicted_H	0.436	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.207	-0.030
predicted_R	0.285	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.154	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.179	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.560	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2500	0.1481	0.1111	0.0370	0.1852	0.2222
season	0.60	25	-	77.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.1558	0.2235	0.1688	0.1558	0.0390	0.0779	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1410
predicted_AVG	0.1605
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.5040
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2368
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.2113
predicted_SO	0.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0740	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0800	3.1410	3.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1605	0.1608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2910	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.5040	0.4326	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2368	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.2850	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1730	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2113	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5200	0.6290	0.5607	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.156

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	682668
playerID	682668
playerName	Luisangel Acuña
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 32

All-history rows before 20260518: 32

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	1.000	-0.031	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.500	-0.314	-0.500
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	2.000	-0.312	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	3.000	-0.312	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	1.333	-0.323	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.080	0.080
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	0.010
predicted_H	0.642	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.080	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.291	0.001
predicted_H	0.647	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.022
predicted_R	0.354	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.678	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.3125	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.4000	0.2000	0.0333	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.60	32	-	96.000	24.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.2500	0.3143	0.3229	0.2500	0.0104	0.1042	0.0938	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2090
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3001
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.3688
predicted_SO	0.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1780	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2090	3.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.3060	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7420	0.6424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3001	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.4090	0.3493	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5000	0.4324	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3688	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.6650	0.6791	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.076	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.269	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	-0.057
predicted_H	0.596	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.492	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.862	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.527	0.001
predicted_H	0.600	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.182	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.004
predicted_R	0.499	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.060
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5000	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.1562	0.2895	0.4062	0.1562	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.2812
season	0.60	12	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.1842	0.3261	0.5526	0.1842	0.1053	0.1842	0.1842	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4730
predicted_AVG	0.2090
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2260
predicted_OBP	0.3008
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.4664
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2050	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.4730	3.2694	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.4130	0.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7260	0.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2260	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3008	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4770	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5250	0.4285	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4664	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9210	0.8624	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	3.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	1.000	-0.258	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.939	3.000	-0.939	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	1.000	-0.305	-1.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	1.000	-0.485	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	1.333	-0.417	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.121	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	0.000	-1.121	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.019
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.560	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	0.044
predicted_H	0.943	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.490	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.984	-0.137

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.317	0.001
predicted_H	0.950	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	-0.030
predicted_R	0.496	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.983	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.0714
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3871	0.4595	0.5484	0.3871	0.0323	0.1290	0.1613	0.1290
season	0.60	33	-	120.000	31.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	16.000	15.000	9.000	37.000	0.2583	0.3053	0.4167	0.2583	0.0250	0.1333	0.0750	0.3083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2927
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	1.0080
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3573
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4826
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2310	0.2014	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0300	0.0487	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.4440	3.5601	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2927	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3840	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0080	0.9427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3573	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.5440	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4560	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4826	0.4828	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	0.7750	0.9842	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 25

All-history rows before 20260518: 25

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2644

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_AB	3.530	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.480	3.000	0.520	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.333	-0.264	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	1.000	-0.920	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.333	-0.169	-0.133
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.333	-0.391	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.560	1.000	-0.560	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.080	-
predicted_AB	3.530	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.560	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.018
predicted_3B	0.065	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.559	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.015
predicted_H	0.967	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.254	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.592	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.559	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.003
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000
predicted_H	0.974	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_HR	0.042	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.033
predicted_R	0.600	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.006
predicted_SO	0.594	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3429	0.2857	0.0000	0.0571	0.0286	0.2000
season	0.60	25	-	87.000	23.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	0.2644	0.3689	0.3908	0.2644	0.0115	0.1035	0.0805	0.1609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.2711
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.2540
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3573
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.3891
predicted_SO	0.6520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.2060	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0800	0.0410	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5300	3.6050	3.5588	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2711	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.2410	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9770	0.9665	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2540	0.2540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3573	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5790	0.5919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3060	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3891	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5600	0.6520	0.5953	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2360

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	0.814	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	4.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.014	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.372	1.000	-0.372	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	1.000	0.116	0.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.400	-0.082	-0.150
predicted_R	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.535	1.000	0.465	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.721	0.000	0.279	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.250	-0.028	0.250
predicted_SO	1.233	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.233	2.000	1.767	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.372	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.584	-
predicted_SO	1.233	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.769	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.008
predicted_H	0.959	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.090	-
predicted_HR	0.324	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.644	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.365	0.001
predicted_H	0.966	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.090	0.000
predicted_HR	0.323	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.022
predicted_R	0.605	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.652	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.562	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.198	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.8421	0.3684	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.6500	0.2750	0.1000	0.2000	0.0750	0.3250
season	0.60	43	-	161.000	38.000	8.000	13.000	31.000	23.000	16.000	53.000	0.2360	0.3315	0.5280	0.2360	0.0808	0.1925	0.0994	0.3292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.2666
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	1.0150
predicted_HBP	0.0900
predicted_HR	0.3440
predicted_OBP	0.3435
predicted_R	0.6880
predicted_RBI	0.6790
predicted_SLG	0.5844
predicted_SO	1.1510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1720	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.8060	3.7694	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2666	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3720	0.3530	0.3642	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0150	0.9589	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0900	0.0900	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3440	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3435	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.6880	0.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6790	0.6441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5840	0.5844	0.5842	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2330	1.1510	1.1995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	4.000	-1.698	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.255	0.250
predicted_BB	0.674	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	0.000	1.326	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.907	1.000	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.400	0.379	0.350
predicted_R	0.791	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.791	1.000	0.209	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	2.000	0.326	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.500	-0.009	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.698	1.000	-0.698	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.674	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.791	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	0.698	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.027
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.718	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	-0.073
predicted_H	0.975	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.805	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.781	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.569	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.706	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.602	0.001
predicted_H	0.982	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.277	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.002
predicted_R	0.815	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.791	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.549	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.705	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.7000	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4186	0.7500	0.3333	0.1111	0.3056	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.60	43	-	159.000	39.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	29.000	34.000	29.000	30.000	0.2453	0.3711	0.5094	0.2453	0.0692	0.1824	0.1824	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.2698
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_OBP	0.3692
predicted_R	0.8240
predicted_RBI	0.8110
predicted_SLG	0.5688
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.2290	0.1901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.7470	3.7181	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2698	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6740	0.4970	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0110	0.9751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2880	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3692	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7910	0.8240	0.8046	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8110	0.7810	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5688	0.5689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6980	0.7180	0.7062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2327

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	5.000	-0.614	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.200	0.101	0.133
predicted_BB	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.818	0.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.841	1.000	0.159	0.000
predicted_HR	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.200	0.128	0.300
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.566	0.400	-0.233	-0.067
predicted_SO	1.455	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.455	1.000	0.545	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.818	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.554	-
predicted_SO	1.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.601	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.803	-0.015
predicted_H	0.841	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.335	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.752	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.554	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.364	-0.091

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.601	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.804	0.001
predicted_H	0.847	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.334	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.001
predicted_R	0.762	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.532	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.361	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.092

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.1765	0.2941	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	15.000	0.2000	0.3488	0.4857	0.2000	0.0857	0.1143	0.2286	0.4286
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	37.000	2.000	17.000	32.000	33.000	36.000	64.000	0.2327	0.3724	0.5660	0.2327	0.1069	0.2013	0.2264	0.4025

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2392
predicted_BB	0.7820
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3410
predicted_OBP	0.3736
predicted_R	0.7560
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.5537
predicted_SO	1.2330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.1000	0.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.5820	3.6008	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2392	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8180	0.7820	0.8032	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8570	0.8411	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3410	0.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3736	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.7560	0.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6150	0.6003	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5540	0.5537	0.5539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4550	1.2330	1.3637	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Noah Schultz (702273) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.500	5.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	3.000	-1.667	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.167	2.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.733	4.100	1.267	1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	3.000	-0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 7.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	13.000	16.000	17.000	22.000	2.000	4.6800	1.3200	0.5200	0.6400	0.6800	0.8800	0.0800
last_10	0.35	6	29.100	16.000	19.000	21.000	26.000	2.000	4.9091	1.3636	0.5454	0.6477	0.7159	0.8864	0.0682
season	0.20	6	29.100	16.000	19.000	21.000	26.000	2.000	4.9091	1.3636	0.5454	0.6477	0.7159	0.8864	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.2230
predicted_ER	2.9420
predicted_ERA	4.4812
predicted_H	4.5870
predicted_HR	0.6020
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	5.3920
predicted_WHIP	1.3217

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	3.2230	3.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.9420	1.8894	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4812	4.4812	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5870	4.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6020	1.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	7.0000	6.0000	6.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.3920	4.6375	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3217	1.3217	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	4
HR	2
BF	25
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	38
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	702273
playerID	702273
playerName	Noah Schultz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.3300
predicted_ERA	2.9729
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0730
predicted_WHIP	1.4136

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4750	0.8104	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3300	0.1192	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9729	2.9729	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9390	0.9780	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0730	0.3875	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4136	1.4136	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	3.3998
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0220
predicted_WHIP	1.2494

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3430	0.1071	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3998	3.3998	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9060	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0220	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2494	1.2494	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_ER	0.2520
predicted_ERA	4.5027
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4560
predicted_WHIP	1.3503

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1920	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2520	0.8031	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5027	4.5027	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4870	1.6016	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4560	0.8568	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3503	1.3503	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 2

All-history rows before 20260518: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	-0.550	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_ER	0.1820
predicted_ERA	4.6721
predicted_H	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3160
predicted_WHIP	1.4012

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1390	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1820	0.7966	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6721	4.6721	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3520	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3160	0.0786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4012	1.4012	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Home Team: SEA

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2486

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.933	3.000	-0.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.249	0.000	-0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	1.000	0.622	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.978	0.000	-0.978	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.250	-0.066	0.000
predicted_R	0.311	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.311	0.000	0.689	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	0.533	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.311	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.921	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.412	0.034
predicted_H	0.976	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.341	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.654	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.921	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.412	-0.000
predicted_H	0.974	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.085	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.019
predicted_R	0.339	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.654	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.933

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3778	0.4250	0.3000	0.0250	0.1000	0.1250	0.1000
season	0.60	45	-	177.000	44.000	5.000	5.000	21.000	14.000	17.000	30.000	0.2486	0.3163	0.3616	0.2486	0.0283	0.1186	0.0960	0.1695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2594
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	1.0130
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3385
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3691
predicted_SO	0.6350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1520	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9330	3.9040	3.9211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2594	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.4610	0.4121	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0130	0.9759	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3385	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3110	0.3840	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4090	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3691	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6350	0.6538	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.249

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Connor Joe (656582) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.132	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	0.001
predicted_H	0.620	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.366	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.982	-0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.132	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.000
predicted_H	0.619	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.023
predicted_R	0.364	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.276	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.983	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.3333
last_10	0.20	6	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.60	6	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.2242
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.2978
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.4187
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1900	0.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4800	3.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2242	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3360	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7800	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1570	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2978	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4520	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3500	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4187	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9330	0.9816	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	656582
playerID	656582
playerName	Connor Joe
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jhonny Pereda (640902) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	-1.250	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.593	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.290	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.236	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	1.189	-0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.592	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.066
predicted_R	0.289	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.234	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.255	-0.075
predicted_SO	1.190	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.20	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167
season	0.60	4	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2656
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3300
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1220	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5720	3.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1900	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7930	0.5934	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0820	0.0577	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2656	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4170	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3170	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.9980	1.1893	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	640902
playerID	640902
playerName	Jhonny Pereda
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 48

All-history rows before 20260518: 48

System season_avg: 0.2490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2485

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.521	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.521	4.000	0.479	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.001	0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	0.938	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.073	0.250
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	0.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.521	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.019
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.555	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.010
predicted_H	0.713	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.523	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	0.911	-0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.555	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.000
predicted_H	0.711	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.032
predicted_R	0.361	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.520	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.912	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1714	0.0857	0.2286
season	0.60	48	-	169.000	42.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	26.000	20.000	15.000	44.000	0.2485	0.3228	0.3609	0.2485	0.0177	0.1538	0.0888	0.2604

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2231
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2953
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.3301
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2130	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5210	3.6040	3.5550	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2231	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2880	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8040	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2953	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.2850	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5860	0.5235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3301	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.9020	0.9109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.249

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Rob Refsnyder (608701) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

System season_avg: 0.1210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	0.818	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.125	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.007
predicted_H	0.519	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.023	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.000
predicted_H	0.518	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.079	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.011
predicted_R	0.306	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.252	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.250	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.836	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1290	0.2000	0.2258	0.1290	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.60	11	-	33.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.1212	0.1892	0.2121	0.1212	0.0303	0.0606	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3920
predicted_AVG	0.1844
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2421
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.3040
predicted_SLG	0.2930
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0720	0.0230	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3920	3.1251	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1844	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2510	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6250	0.5194	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0950	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2421	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3830	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3040	0.2536	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2930	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8730	0.8355	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.121

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608701
playerID	608701
playerName	Rob Refsnyder
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 48

All-history rows before 20260518: 48

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3006

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.604	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.604	3.000	0.396	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	-0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.000	-0.136	0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.000	-0.195	0.250
predicted_SO	0.979	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.979	1.000	1.021	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.604	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.979	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.621	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.002
predicted_H	1.098	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	0.634	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	-0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.621	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.000
predicted_H	1.095	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.018
predicted_R	0.630	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.410	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.430	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.977	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3636	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	3.000	10.000	0.4324	0.5000	0.5676	0.4324	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	48	-	173.000	52.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	18.000	32.000	20.000	47.000	0.3006	0.3861	0.4451	0.3006	0.0231	0.1041	0.1156	0.2717

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6460
predicted_AVG	0.3123
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3915
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.4309
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.1780	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0130	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6040	3.6460	3.6213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3123	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.4120	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1380	1.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0725	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3915	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5860	0.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4300	0.4124	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4309	0.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9790	0.9710	0.9757	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 48

All-history rows before 20260518: 48

System season_avg: 0.2510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2513

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.979	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.979	3.000	0.021	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.249	0.500
predicted_BB	0.354	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.354	1.000	0.646	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.281	0.350
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.000	0.842	1.250
predicted_SO	1.021	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.021	0.000	-1.021	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.979	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.354	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	1.021	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.980	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	0.017
predicted_H	0.852	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.363	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.000
predicted_H	0.850	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.013
predicted_R	0.497	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.355	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.017	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.979

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.2195	0.2889	0.4146	0.2195	0.0488	0.0732	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.60	48	-	191.000	48.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	24.000	17.000	49.000	0.2513	0.3190	0.4084	0.2513	0.0367	0.1047	0.0890	0.2565

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2183
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.2942
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3626
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1910	0.1892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9790	3.9820	3.9802	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2183	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3540	0.3960	0.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8690	0.8520	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1270	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4990	0.4996	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3670	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3626	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0210	1.0090	1.0160	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.251

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Colt Emerson (806068) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.167	0.167
predicted_R	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	1.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.709	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	1.095	-0.155
predicted_H	0.442	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	1.130	-0.120
predicted_RBI	0.223	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.137	0.137

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.709	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	-0.059
predicted_BB	1.095	-0.001
predicted_H	0.441	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.096
predicted_R	1.123	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.221	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.117
predicted_SO	0.137	0.000

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total R	Total BB	OBP	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000
last_10	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000
season	0.60	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.6370
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.3077
predicted_R	0.5960
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.3594
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1580	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6370	2.7093	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	0.4110	1.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.8070	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1060	0.0603	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3077	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.2500	0.5960	1.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.4110	0.2225	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3594	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7420	0.1366	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	806068
playerID	806068
playerName	Colt Emerson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 39

All-history rows before 20260518: 39

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.538	1.000	0.462	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	0.035	-0.100
predicted_R	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.590	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.744	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.614	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.664	-0.080
predicted_H	0.876	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.094	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.586	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.664	-0.001
predicted_H	0.874	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.194	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.004
predicted_R	0.583	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.460	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.670	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.6842	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3488	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.1351	0.1622
season	0.60	39	-	138.000	30.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	23.000	29.000	26.000	0.2174	0.3647	0.3768	0.2174	0.0435	0.1159	0.2101	0.1884

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.2425
predicted_BB	0.5480
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.0940
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3558
predicted_R	0.5800
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.4413
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1290	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5900	3.6500	3.6144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2425	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7440	0.5480	0.6644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8850	0.8761	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0940	0.0940	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1970	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3558	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.5800	0.5859	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4660	0.4624	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4413	0.4411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6720	0.6690	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Bryan Woo (693433) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	1.111	2.000	3.889	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.556	2.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.778	4.000	-2.778	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.889	6.000	-0.689	-0.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.222	9.000	0.778	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	17.000	25.000	5.000	27.000	6.000	5.4643	1.0714	0.6071	0.8929	0.1786	0.9643	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	53.000	23.000	43.000	10.000	47.000	6.000	3.9057	1.0000	0.4340	0.8113	0.1887	0.8868	0.1132
season	0.20	9	53.000	23.000	43.000	10.000	47.000	6.000	3.9057	1.0000	0.4340	0.8113	0.1887	0.8868	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4510
predicted_ER	2.9580
predicted_ERA	4.6304
predicted_H	5.1110
predicted_HR	0.9160
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.4060
predicted_WHIP	1.1414

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.4510	3.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9580	2.4782	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6304	4.6304	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.1110	3.5528	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9160	0.4572	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.4060	5.7035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1414	1.1414	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	5
SO	6
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.91
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	74
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	693433
playerID	693433
playerName	Bryan Woo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.611	3.000	-1.611	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.8000	0.2000	1.8000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	17.000	10.000	16.000	7.000	29.000	3.000	5.2941	1.3529	0.5882	0.9412	0.4118	1.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.4410
predicted_ERA	3.9713
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2850
predicted_WHIP	1.2900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3230	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4410	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9713	3.9713	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9670	0.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2850	0.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2900	1.2900	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	1.000	2.647	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.882	1.000	1.118	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.082	0.100	-0.082	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	7.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.8571	0.9643	0.4286	0.7500	0.2143	0.9643	0.1071
season	0.20	17	19.100	6.000	15.000	5.000	17.000	3.000	2.7931	1.0345	0.3103	0.7759	0.2586	0.8793	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	4.0875
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8480
predicted_WHIP	1.2744

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3430	0.7301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4250	1.9420	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0875	4.0875	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8490	1.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0970	0.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8480	1.5267	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2744	1.2744	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.755	0.200	0.245	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	10.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	22	20.100	5.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2131	1.2295	0.2459	0.8852	0.3443	0.8361	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.4600
predicted_ERA	4.1400
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9500
predicted_WHIP	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4600	0.1914	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1400	4.1400	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0670	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9500	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4270	1.4270	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.375	2.000	-1.375	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.200	-0.950	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	-1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786
season	0.20	7	9.100	6.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	5.7857	1.3929	0.6429	1.0714	0.3214	1.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1790
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	4.2747
predicted_H	0.6040
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5580
predicted_WHIP	1.2975

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1790	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2747	4.2747	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6040	0.2063	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5580	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2975	1.2975	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260518_CIN@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.576132, "home_win_probability": 0.576132, "away_win_probability": 0.423868, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 PHI", "confidence": 0.576132, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 5 - 6 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CIN 4 - 6 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CIN 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	0.576	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CIN 4 - 6 PHI	PHI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CIN	4-6	0.400	5.10	6.10	-10	2L	hot	weak
Home PHI	7-3	0.700	5.20	3.80	14	4W	hot	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CIN	24-23	0.511	-35	-0.745	True
Home PHI	24-23	0.511	-17	-0.362	True
Signal	-	-	0.383	0.383	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CIN	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target PHI	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CIN	33	8	4	0	2	3	9
Player finalized PHI	33	9	2	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional CIN	32.68	7.39	4.16	1.19	4.16	3.80	8.01
Player model fractional PHI	33.13	7.22	3.59	0.87	3.54	2.29	7.92
Simulation box CIN	36	9	4	2	4	4	10
Simulation box PHI	35	12	6	0	6	1	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CIN	Starter	Nick Lodolo	4.10	6	7	10	0	5.48	1.40	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.35	1.24	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1.10	0	1	1	0	4.18	1.32	True
Away CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	0	1	0	1	5.32	1.45	True
Home PHI	Starter	Andrew Painter	4.20	3	8	6	4	6.07	1.56	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1	1	0	3	0	3.63	1.38	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.33	1.31	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.47	1.35	True
Home PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.30	1.19	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CIN

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	3.000	1.233	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.178	0.067
predicted_BB	0.535	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.535	1.000	-0.535	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.837	1.000	1.163	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.500	0.074	-0.100
predicted_R	0.442	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.667	0.030	-0.267
predicted_SO	0.953	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.953	0.000	-0.953	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.535	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	0.953	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.742	-0.068
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.532	-0.003
predicted_H	0.973	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.188	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.469	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.650	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.495	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	-0.081

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.003
predicted_H	0.960	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.187	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.008
predicted_R	0.458	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.634	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.876	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.8824	0.3529	0.1177	0.2941	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5588	0.2941	0.0588	0.2647	0.1765	0.1471
season	0.60	43	-	162.000	36.000	9.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	23.000	41.000	0.2222	0.3262	0.3704	0.2222	0.0309	0.1173	0.1420	0.2531

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6450
predicted_AVG	0.2601
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3573
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.6350
predicted_SLG	0.4946
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2950	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.6450	3.7424	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2601	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5350	0.5270	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.9480	0.9728	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1850	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3573	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.5080	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6350	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4946	0.4948	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9530	0.7560	0.8723	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3016

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	1.000	-0.255	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.021	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.021	5.000	0.979	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.329	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.400	-0.102	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.383	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.383	0.000	-0.383	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.213	2.000	-0.213	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.234	1.000	0.766	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.400	-0.164	-0.200
predicted_R	0.745	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.745	1.000	0.255	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.660	1.000	0.340	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.540	1.200	0.260	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.213	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.213	2.000	0.787	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.021	-
predicted_AVG	0.329	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.745	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	1.213	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.058
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.043	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.038
predicted_H	1.298	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.066	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.000
predicted_R	0.753	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.568	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.164	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.002
predicted_H	1.282	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.066	0.000
predicted_HR	0.184	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.012
predicted_R	0.735	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.501	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.531	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.170	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.317 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 4.021

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.7143	0.3810	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	1.000	10.000	0.4186	0.4444	0.6279	0.4186	0.0233	0.0698	0.0233	0.2326
season	0.60	47	-	189.000	57.000	12.000	11.000	31.000	35.000	18.000	57.000	0.3016	0.3636	0.5397	0.3016	0.0582	0.1640	0.0952	0.3016

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0740
predicted_AVG	0.3287
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	1.3390
predicted_HBP	0.0660
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3828
predicted_R	0.7640
predicted_RBI	0.5320
predicted_SLG	0.5675
predicted_SO	1.0950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.3950	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0210	4.0740	4.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3290	0.3287	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.2920	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.3390	1.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0660	0.0660	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1910	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3828	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7450	0.7640	0.7529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5320	0.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5675	0.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2130	1.0950	1.1642	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	4.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.000	-0.053	0.250
predicted_BB	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.000	-0.018	0.400
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.682	0.000	-0.432	0.250
predicted_SO	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.632	1.000	0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.684	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.850	-
predicted_SLG	0.606	-
predicted_SO	0.632	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.016
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.558	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.000
predicted_BB	0.638	-0.046
predicted_H	0.984	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.241	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.000
predicted_R	0.635	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.899	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.635	-0.003
predicted_H	0.971	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.001
predicted_R	0.620	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.878	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.581	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.668	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.7619	0.3333	0.0952	0.3810	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	0.2973	0.4222	0.6216	0.2973	0.0541	0.3513	0.2162	0.1351
season	0.60	19	-	66.000	20.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	12.000	13.000	12.000	0.3030	0.4177	0.6818	0.3030	0.0909	0.2879	0.1970	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.7020
predicted_AVG	0.2903
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2590
predicted_OBP	0.3836
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.9830
predicted_SLG	0.6059
predicted_SO	0.7220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.3050	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0430	0.0493	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.7020	3.5582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6840	0.5600	0.6382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0750	0.9836	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2590	0.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3836	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.6390	0.6346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8500	0.9830	0.8991	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6060	0.6059	0.6060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6320	0.7220	0.6653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	1.818	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	4.000	1.386	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.336	0.100
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.955	2.000	2.045	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.159	0.000	0.841	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.267	0.100
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.386	0.000	1.614	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.451	1.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.500	1.153	1.100
predicted_SO	0.841	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.841	1.000	0.159	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.451	-
predicted_SO	0.841	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.700	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	0.009
predicted_H	1.075	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.646	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.451	0.000
predicted_SO	0.774	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.002
predicted_H	1.062	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.042	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.017
predicted_R	0.630	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.441	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.777	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.4286	0.4783	0.5238	0.4286	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	0.3171	0.3778	0.4390	0.3171	0.0244	0.1220	0.0976	0.0976
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	42.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	24.000	14.000	37.000	0.2642	0.3333	0.4465	0.2641	0.0440	0.1069	0.0881	0.2327

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2984
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.3616
predicted_R	0.7920
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.4510
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2190	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.8240	3.6996	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2984	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3400	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1410	1.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1200	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3616	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.7920	0.6457	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4830	0.4516	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4510	0.4510	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8410	0.6760	0.7737	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 25

All-history rows before 20260518: 25

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2674

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	1.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.440	4.000	-0.440	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.500	0.066	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	2.000	0.080	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.149	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	1.000	-0.640	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.547	0.750	-0.213	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	0.000	0.120	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.440	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.491	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.018
predicted_H	0.789	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.446	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.921	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.491	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.420	-0.002
predicted_H	0.779	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.021
predicted_R	0.376	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.440	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.925	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	13.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3889	0.2500	0.0278	0.1389	0.1111	0.3611
season	0.60	25	-	86.000	23.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	10.000	11.000	22.000	0.2674	0.3505	0.5465	0.2674	0.0698	0.1860	0.1279	0.2558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.2523
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.3282
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.4457
predicted_SO	0.9880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2150	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4400	3.5740	3.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2523	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.3940	0.4225	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9020	0.7893	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1570	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3600	0.3848	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5160	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4457	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	0.9880	0.9211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	2.000	0.216	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.703	0.000	-0.703	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.679	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.021
predicted_H	0.534	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.148	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	1.038	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.002
predicted_H	0.527	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.135	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.045
predicted_R	0.334	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.144	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.217	-0.021
predicted_SO	1.043	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	0.0714	0.1875	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1562	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3438
season	0.60	37	-	140.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	12.000	37.000	0.1857	0.2692	0.2714	0.1857	0.0143	0.0500	0.0857	0.2643

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.1658
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.5840
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2534
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.1590
predicted_SLG	0.2385
predicted_SO	1.0950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1220	0.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.5240	3.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1658	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2730	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5840	0.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.2880	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1590	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0950	1.0383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.766	3.000	-0.766	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.667	0.090	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.553	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	1.000	0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	1.000	-0.021	-1.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.915	2.000	0.085	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.750	0.163	-0.250
predicted_R	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.660	0.000	-0.660	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.667	-0.124	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.830	0.000	0.170	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.766	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.830	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.744	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	0.048
predicted_H	0.748	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.526	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	0.011

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.598	-0.003
predicted_H	0.739	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.129	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.030
predicted_R	0.513	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.419	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.845	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	0.1176	0.3478	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2368	0.3556	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.0526	0.1842	0.2632
season	0.60	47	-	177.000	43.000	8.000	10.000	31.000	26.000	26.000	39.000	0.2429	0.3366	0.4576	0.2429	0.0565	0.1751	0.1469	0.2203

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7130
predicted_AVG	0.2201
predicted_BB	0.6690
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3379
predicted_R	0.4870
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3748
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1450	0.1597	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7660	3.7130	3.7441	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2201	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.6690	0.6009	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8170	0.7483	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3379	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.4870	0.5258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4710	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3748	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8300	0.8570	0.8411	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	4.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_R	0.152	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.152	0.000	0.848	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	1.121	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	2.000	-0.121	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.152	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.446	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	-0.037
predicted_H	0.522	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.176	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	1.101	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.446	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.150	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.002
predicted_H	0.515	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.001
predicted_R	0.172	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.466	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.107	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1429	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1622	0.2195	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.60	33	-	111.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	5.000	15.000	37.000	0.1622	0.2578	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.1081	0.1351	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.1685
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_H	0.6020
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.2420
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.5490
predicted_SLG	0.2929
predicted_SO	1.0710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0950	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.5720	3.4460	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1685	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3620	0.4183	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6020	0.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1150	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2420	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1520	0.2120	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5490	0.4769	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2929	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.0710	1.1013	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 35

All-history rows before 20260518: 35

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1504

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.229	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.229	2.000	0.771	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	1.000	-0.229	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.207	0.333	-0.207	-0.333
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.229	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.021
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.276	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.276	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.001
predicted_H	0.553	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.025
predicted_R	0.321	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.240	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.598	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2121	0.2571	0.3333	0.2121	0.0303	0.1212	0.0606	0.2424
season	0.60	35	-	113.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	8.000	20.000	0.1504	0.2066	0.2389	0.1504	0.0177	0.0442	0.0708	0.1770

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.3490
predicted_AVG	0.1949
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2483
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.2860
predicted_SLG	0.2969
predicted_SO	0.6320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0570	0.1100	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0170	0.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2290	3.3490	3.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1949	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2300	0.2294	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6530	0.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0660	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2483	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3940	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2860	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.6320	0.5949	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nick Lodolo (666157) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 2

All-history rows before 20260518: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_ER	4.500	5.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_H	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_H	5.500	6.000	4.500	4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	4.000	-0.450	0.100
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	6.000	3.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	9.100	9.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	8.6786	1.6071	0.9643	1.1786	0.4286	0.8571	0.3214
last_10	0.35	2	9.100	9.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	8.6786	1.6071	0.9643	1.1786	0.4286	0.8571	0.3214
season	0.20	2	9.100	9.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	8.6786	1.6071	0.9643	1.1786	0.4286	0.8571	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6450
predicted_ER	2.5530
predicted_ERA	5.4835
predicted_H	4.2200
predicted_HR	0.7750
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.8720
predicted_WHIP	1.3996

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.6450	0.5728	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	2.5530	4.7997	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4835	5.4835	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	4.2200	7.9874	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7750	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.8720	5.9108	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3996	1.3996	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	10
R	6
ER	6
BB	0
SO	7
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	8.68
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666157
playerID	666157
playerName	Nick Lodolo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.727	3.000	-0.727	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	4.000	-0.364	-4.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.932	0.000	0.168	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	5.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	21	21.200	4.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	1.000	1.6615	1.2000	0.1846	0.6000	0.6000	1.1539	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_ER	0.3720
predicted_ERA	3.3492
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0940
predicted_WHIP	1.2364

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5270	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3720	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3492	3.3492	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7090	0.8770	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0940	1.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2364	1.2364	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	0.100	0.405	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	5.0000	1.4444	0.5556	0.8889	0.5556	0.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	21	18.100	8.000	18.000	7.000	17.000	3.000	3.9273	1.3636	0.4364	0.9818	0.3818	0.9273	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_ER	0.4650
predicted_ERA	4.1844
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8950
predicted_WHIP	1.3173

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4470	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4650	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1844	4.1844	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8710	0.9477	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8950	0.9574	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3173	1.3173	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.0000	1.5556	0.7778	1.2222	0.3333	0.8889	0.5556
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	14.000	9.000	18.000	5.000	3.5000	1.2778	0.3889	0.7778	0.5000	1.0000	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	5.3230
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8970
predicted_WHIP	1.4475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3970	0.7567	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5910	0.2385	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3230	5.3230	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0500	0.4236	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3100	0.1251	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8970	0.9584	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4475	1.4475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: PHI

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.696	4.000	0.304	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.250	-0.032	0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.565	0.000	-0.565	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.043	1.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.250	-0.126	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.559	1.000	-0.309	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	2.000	0.261	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.696	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.565	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.609	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.545	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.724	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.555	-0.010
predicted_H	1.045	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.265	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.705	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000
predicted_SO	0.788	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.001
predicted_H	1.068	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.003
predicted_R	0.624	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.731	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.559	0.014
predicted_SO	0.786	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4348	0.6500	0.3500	0.1000	0.3000	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.5135	0.2703	0.0811	0.1892	0.1622	0.2432
season	0.60	46	-	170.000	48.000	9.000	1.000	12.000	30.000	28.000	26.000	34.000	0.2824	0.3756	0.5588	0.2823	0.0706	0.1765	0.1529	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7630
predicted_AVG	0.2870
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2730
predicted_OBP	0.3760
predicted_R	0.5910
predicted_RBI	0.7270
predicted_SLG	0.5452
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1960	0.1270	0.1676	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6960	3.7630	3.7236	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2870	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5650	0.5410	0.5551	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0800	1.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2730	0.2653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3760	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6090	0.5910	0.6016	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7270	0.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5450	0.5452	0.5451	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.8580	0.7879	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.290	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.244	5.000	0.756	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.200	-0.036	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.200	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.644	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	0.000	0.356	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.200	-0.140	0.000
predicted_SO	0.978	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.978	1.000	1.022	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.978	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.314	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.019
predicted_H	0.986	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.656	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.015	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.005
predicted_BB	0.271	0.001
predicted_H	1.008	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.010
predicted_R	0.681	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.004
predicted_SO	1.013	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.290

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	24.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.2083	0.2400	0.2500	0.2083	0.0000	0.0833	0.0417	0.2917
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	12.000	0.2174	0.2292	0.2391	0.2174	0.0000	0.0652	0.0217	0.2609
season	0.60	45	-	191.000	45.000	8.000	4.000	15.000	29.000	13.000	44.000	0.2356	0.2829	0.3403	0.2356	0.0209	0.0785	0.0681	0.2304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.3470
predicted_AVG	0.2287
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2689
predicted_R	0.6740
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3139
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.1700	0.1747	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2900	4.3470	4.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2287	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2440	0.2704	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9940	0.9858	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2689	0.2690	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.6740	0.6564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3600	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3139	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9780	1.0680	1.0151	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2102

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	0.262	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.500	0.040	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.500	-0.016	-0.250
predicted_R	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	1.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.750	-0.056	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.571	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	2.429	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	-0.019
predicted_H	0.993	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000
predicted_H	1.015	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.001
predicted_R	0.373	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.570	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	14.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.3784	0.4103	0.6216	0.3784	0.0541	0.1351	0.0541	0.0811
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	33.000	6.000	3.000	20.000	13.000	11.000	24.000	0.2102	0.2659	0.3057	0.2102	0.0191	0.1274	0.0701	0.1529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8540
predicted_AVG	0.2700
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3130
predicted_R	0.4330
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.3982
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2150	0.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.8540	3.7852	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2700	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.2160	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0410	0.9929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3130	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.4330	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4110	0.3926	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3982	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5720	0.5714	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2147

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	1.000	-1.705	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	1.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.785	1.000
predicted_BB	0.318	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	1.000	0.682	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	0.000	1.205	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.750	0.460	0.000
predicted_R	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.341	1.000	0.659	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	1.727	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.000	1.181	1.500
predicted_SO	1.182	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.341	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.710	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.018
predicted_H	0.613	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.156	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.000
predicted_SO	1.266	0.084

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.300	0.001
predicted_H	0.626	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.156	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.035
predicted_R	0.370	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.264	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	0.0556	0.1905	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.6111
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.0263	0.0526	0.4210
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	52.000	0.2147	0.2896	0.3190	0.2147	0.0184	0.0736	0.0859	0.3190

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7170
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.1560
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2659
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.2749
predicted_SO	1.3880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1120	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.7170	3.7099	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.2730	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6750	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1560	0.1560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0637	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2659	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3410	0.3800	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2230	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2749	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.3880	1.2662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	2
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 28

All-history rows before 20260518: 28

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	-0.224	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.250	-0.287	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.250	-0.296	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.643	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	1.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.538	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.212	-0.002
predicted_H	0.654	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.212	0.000
predicted_H	0.668	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.106	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.034
predicted_R	0.387	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.258	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.259	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.679	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.1842	0.2250	0.2368	0.1842	0.0000	0.0790	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.60	28	-	98.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	6.000	18.000	0.2245	0.2870	0.2959	0.2245	0.0102	0.0816	0.0612	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.2057
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2693
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.2790
predicted_SLG	0.2804
predicted_SO	0.7400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1360	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5970	3.5375	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2057	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2090	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7400	0.6541	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2693	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3990	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2790	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.7400	0.6805	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2154

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	4.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.535	0.750
predicted_BB	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	2.263	3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.523	0.750
predicted_R	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.263	1.000	0.737	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.442	0.750
predicted_SO	0.895	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.895	2.000	-0.895	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.053	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.263	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.476	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	0.019
predicted_H	0.690	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.911	0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.072	0.000
predicted_H	0.705	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.219	-0.013
predicted_R	0.296	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.910	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.2857
season	0.60	19	-	65.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	17.000	0.2154	0.2273	0.3077	0.2154	0.0154	0.1231	0.0154	0.2615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.2079
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2319
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.2933
predicted_SO	0.9410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1210	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.5750	3.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2079	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0530	0.1060	0.0720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7430	0.6898	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0532	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2319	0.2320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2630	0.3270	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4040	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2933	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	0.9410	0.9115	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	4.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.500	0.034	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.500	-0.014	-0.250
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	3.000	1.472	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	1.500	-0.138	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.033
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.738	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	0.001
predicted_H	0.800	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.046	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.224	0.000
predicted_H	0.818	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.016
predicted_R	0.426	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.609	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.409	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.5526	0.2632	0.0526	0.2368	0.0526	0.1579
season	0.60	36	-	134.000	29.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	19.000	14.000	8.000	24.000	0.2164	0.2639	0.3881	0.2164	0.0299	0.1418	0.0597	0.1791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2367
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2794
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.6570
predicted_SLG	0.4395
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2760	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0300	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.7620	3.7380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2367	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2250	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8900	0.7999	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2794	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4430	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6570	0.5868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4395	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6770	0.6710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Otto Kemp (805249) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 5

All-history rows before 20260518: 5

System season_avg: 0.0590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0588

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.059	0.000	0.191	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.059	0.000	0.191	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.059	0.000	0.191	0.250
predicted_SO	1.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.467	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.524	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.313	-0.087

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.535	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.165	-0.051
predicted_R	0.082	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.220	-0.054
predicted_SO	1.310	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
season	0.60	5	-	17.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.1770
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	0.6470
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2160
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.2736
predicted_SO	1.0680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1110	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6560	3.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1770	0.1770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1730	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6470	0.5240	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2160	0.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3020	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2900	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2736	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.0680	1.3126	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.059

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260417_ATL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	805249
playerID	805249
playerName	Otto Kemp
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.368	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.368	4.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.227	0.500
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	1.079	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.150	0.500
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	1.000	0.711	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.094	0.500
predicted_SO	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	0.289	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.368	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.043	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.376	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.368	0.026
predicted_H	0.760	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.339	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.376	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.369	0.001
predicted_H	0.777	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.035
predicted_R	0.351	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.718	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.2812	0.3784	0.5000	0.2812	0.0625	0.1250	0.1562	0.2500
season	0.60	38	-	128.000	35.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	13.000	27.000	0.2734	0.3497	0.4062	0.2734	0.0156	0.0859	0.1016	0.2109

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0280
predicted_AB	3.3880
predicted_AVG	0.2554
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_OBP	0.3411
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.4147
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1370	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0280	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3680	3.3880	3.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.4070	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8650	0.7599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1150	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3411	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.3730	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3570	0.3107	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4147	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.7310	0.7190	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Andrew Painter (691725) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	2.500	4.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.250	1.000	-0.250	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.000	4.000	0.000	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.562	5.000	-0.362	-0.800
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.250	4.000	3.750	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	20.000	32.000	9.000	18.000	7.000	7.7143	1.7571	0.8571	1.3714	0.3857	0.7714	0.3000
last_10	0.35	8	37.200	26.000	48.000	12.000	34.000	7.000	6.2124	1.5929	0.6903	1.2743	0.3186	0.9026	0.1858
season	0.20	8	37.200	26.000	48.000	12.000	34.000	7.000	6.2124	1.5929	0.6903	1.2743	0.3186	0.9026	0.1858

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7250
predicted_ER	3.1480
predicted_ERA	6.0707
predicted_H	5.5340
predicted_HR	0.9910
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.0420
predicted_WHIP	1.5555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.7250	2.8909	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.1480	2.5597	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.0707	6.0707	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.5340	5.7728	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9910	0.9956	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.0420	6.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5555	1.5555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	8
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.21
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	62
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691725
playerID	691725
playerName	Andrew Painter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	2.105	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	2.000	-1.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.8000	0.2000	1.4000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.9000	0.3000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	19	18.200	8.000	17.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	3.8571	1.2321	0.4286	0.9107	0.3214	1.2321	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	3.6252
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1660
predicted_WHIP	1.3846

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3660	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4030	0.7569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6252	3.6252	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0190	2.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0990	0.6331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1660	0.4748	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3846	1.3846	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.862	1.000	0.238	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.462	3.000	-1.462	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	0.6000	1.0000	2.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.5000	0.5000	1.6000
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	1.5429	1.1143	0.1714	0.6857	0.4286	1.6286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4830
predicted_ER	0.3700
predicted_ERA	3.3287
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2430
predicted_WHIP	1.3091

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4830	0.1744	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3700	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3287	3.3287	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8260	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2430	0.4489	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3091	1.3091	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.048	1.000	-1.048	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.595	1.000	0.505	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.095	3.000	-0.095	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.9231	0.2308	2.0769
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	10.000	3.000	13.000	1.0385	1.5000	0.1154	1.1539	0.3462	1.5000
season	0.20	21	16.000	9.000	22.000	7.000	23.000	5.0625	1.8125	0.5625	1.3750	0.4375	1.4375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_ER	0.2970
predicted_ERA	3.4699
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9700
predicted_WHIP	1.3516

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2720	0.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2970	0.7248	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4699	3.4699	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7690	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9700	0.9883	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3516	1.3516	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	-0.617	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.4545	1.0909	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0385	0.8077	0.1154	0.5769	0.2308	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	18	16.100	4.000	12.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	2.2041	1.1633	0.2449	0.7347	0.4286	0.7347	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_ER	0.2710
predicted_ERA	3.3027
predicted_H	0.6290
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6580
predicted_WHIP	1.1946

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2540	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2710	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3027	3.3027	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6290	0.2476	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6580	0.8654	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1946	1.1946	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_PHI@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260518_CLE@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.576132, "home_win_probability": 0.423868, "away_win_probability": 0.576132, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "confidence": 0.576132, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "CLE 6 - 3 DET", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CLE 5 - 4 DET	CLE	0.576	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CLE 6 - 3 DET	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CLE	7-3	0.700	5.60	3.60	20	2W	hot	average
Home DET	2-8	0.200	2.30	4.60	-23	2L	cold	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away CLE	26-22	0.542	13	0.271	True
Home DET	20-27	0.426	-13	-0.277	True
Signal	-	-	-0.547	-0.722	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target DET	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CLE	32	9	6	0	5	5	7
Player finalized DET	33	8	2	0	0	3	9
Player model fractional CLE	31.22	7.59	5.17	1.22	4.48	4.86	6.43
Player model fractional DET	31.56	6.58	3.21	0.60	2.47	3.90	7.55
Simulation box CLE	34	7	6	2	6	6	12
Simulation box DET	36	9	3	0	3	5	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CLE	Starter	Slade Cecconi	5	3	6	8	2	5.28	1.55	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.15	1.08	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Hunter Gaddis	1	0	1	1	0	4.09	1.30	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	0.20	0	1	0	1	2.52	1.09	True
Away CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	1	0	1	0	2	4.37	1.31	True
Home DET	Starter	Framber Valdez	5.10	4	10	4	1	4.49	1.37	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	0	0	1	2	4.18	1.41	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1	0	1	1	0	3.18	1.08	True
Home DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1.10	2	1	1	3	2.90	1.35	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CLE

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	1.789	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.947	2.000	1.053	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.232	0.500
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	2.000	-0.368	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	0.000	1.211	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.156	0.000
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.159	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	0.021
predicted_H	0.658	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.573	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.237	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.159	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.031
predicted_BB	0.415	0.005
predicted_H	0.678	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.031
predicted_R	0.606	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.1429	0.3333	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3939	0.4643	0.2857	0.0357	0.0714	0.1786	0.2500
season	0.60	18	-	56.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	14.000	0.2679	0.3438	0.3929	0.2679	0.0179	0.0714	0.1250	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2460
predicted_AVG	0.2457
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3369
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3694
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1760	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.2460	3.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2457	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.4480	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7980	0.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0730	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3369	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.5050	0.5732	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2870	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3694	0.3691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8010	0.7862	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2012

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	2.000	0.186	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	-0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.628	2.000	-0.628	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	0.000	-0.767	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	-0.320	-0.500
predicted_R	0.488	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.488	1.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.535	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.535	1.000	0.465	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.628	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.535	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.733	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.730	0.102
predicted_H	0.623	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.343	-0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.739	0.009
predicted_H	0.642	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.034
predicted_R	0.537	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.225	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.557	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	0.1333	0.4348	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.5333	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	0.1429	0.3478	0.1714	0.1429	0.0000	0.0286	0.3143	0.1714
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	21.000	27.000	23.000	0.2012	0.3196	0.2561	0.2012	0.0061	0.0610	0.1646	0.1402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.1851
predicted_BB	0.8760
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3425
predicted_R	0.5360
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.2388
predicted_SO	0.6050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1100	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.6170	3.7331	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1851	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6280	0.8760	0.7299	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6690	0.6225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3425	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.5360	0.5077	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2340	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2388	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5350	0.6050	0.5638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 48

All-history rows before 20260518: 48

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2286

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.646	3.000	-0.646	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.105	0.000
predicted_BB	0.729	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.729	2.000	1.271	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	1.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.600	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.604	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.604	2.000	0.396	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.396	2.000	-0.396	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	1.333	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.604	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.604	1.000	0.396	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.646	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.729	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.604	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.604	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.633	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.725	-0.004
predicted_H	0.948	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.069	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.608	0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.003
predicted_BB	0.734	0.009
predicted_H	0.978	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.004
predicted_R	0.656	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.005
predicted_SO	0.600	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4783	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.3056	0.4468	0.4167	0.3056	0.0278	0.1389	0.2500	0.1944
season	0.60	48	-	175.000	40.000	9.000	7.000	19.000	29.000	35.000	29.000	0.2286	0.3585	0.4000	0.2286	0.0400	0.1086	0.2000	0.1657

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2658
predicted_BB	0.7200
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0690
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3883
predicted_R	0.6450
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4353
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1740	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6460	3.6140	3.6328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7290	0.7200	0.7253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9600	0.9483	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0690	0.0690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1450	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3883	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6040	0.6450	0.6210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4620	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4353	0.4351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6040	0.6130	0.6077	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.283	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.283	3.000	0.717	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.667	-0.285	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	2.000	-0.935	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	1.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.750	-0.366	-0.750
predicted_R	0.413	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.413	2.000	-0.413	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	1.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.397	1.667	-0.397	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.283	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.413	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.370	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.282	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.005
predicted_H	0.894	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.586	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.424	0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.282	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.358	0.004
predicted_H	0.922	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.122	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.037
predicted_R	0.447	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.619	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.418	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4444	0.5714	0.3571	0.0714	0.3571	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.3939	0.4750	0.5152	0.3939	0.0303	0.2121	0.1212	0.1515
season	0.60	46	-	151.000	43.000	5.000	4.000	26.000	19.000	16.000	17.000	0.2848	0.3663	0.3974	0.2848	0.0265	0.1722	0.1060	0.1126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2800
predicted_AVG	0.3096
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	1.0160
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.3890
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.4468
predicted_SO	0.5020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.0960	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2830	3.2800	3.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3096	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.3610	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0160	0.8938	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1170	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3890	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4130	0.4380	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6670	0.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4468	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3700	0.5020	0.4237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 35

All-history rows before 20260518: 35

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2815

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.031	0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.086	1.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.069	0.150
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.657	2.000	-0.657	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.605	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.541	1.000	-0.291	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.780	-
predicted_SLG	0.605	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.878	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	0.012
predicted_H	1.092	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.349	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.702	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.777	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.605	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.010
predicted_BB	0.185	0.002
predicted_H	1.127	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.356	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.015
predicted_R	0.742	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.822	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.622	0.017
predicted_SO	0.865	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	1.0526	0.3684	0.2105	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.5641	0.2308	0.1026	0.2051	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.60	35	-	135.000	38.000	8.000	9.000	23.000	22.000	6.000	30.000	0.2815	0.3310	0.5407	0.2815	0.0667	0.1704	0.0444	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8450
predicted_AVG	0.2811
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.3480
predicted_OBP	0.3380
predicted_R	0.8120
predicted_RBI	0.7730
predicted_SLG	0.6045
predicted_SO	0.9030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.1950	0.2154	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.8450	3.8780	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2811	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.2000	0.1826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0810	1.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3480	0.3492	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.8120	0.7022	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7800	0.7730	0.7772	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6050	0.6045	0.6048	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.9030	0.8754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2088

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.138	3.000	0.862	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.333	-0.209	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.759	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.759	2.000	0.241	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.655	1.000	-0.655	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	1.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.600	-0.162	-0.400
predicted_R	0.621	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.621	2.000	0.379	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.407	1.333	-0.407	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.069	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.069	1.000	-0.069	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.138	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.759	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.621	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	1.069	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.124	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.795	0.036
predicted_H	0.608	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.637	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.124	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.805	0.010
predicted_H	0.627	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.177	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.002
predicted_R	0.674	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.554	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.004
predicted_SO	1.063	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	0.1667	0.4500	0.4167	0.1667	0.0833	0.1667	0.5833	0.5000
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	0.1786	0.3750	0.5357	0.1786	0.1071	0.3214	0.3214	0.3929
season	0.60	29	-	91.000	19.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	18.000	22.000	31.000	0.2088	0.3621	0.4066	0.2088	0.0440	0.1538	0.2418	0.3407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1030
predicted_AVG	0.2045
predicted_BB	0.8510
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3664
predicted_R	0.6630
predicted_RBI	0.5470
predicted_SLG	0.4264
predicted_SO	1.0870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1460	0.1832	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1380	3.1030	3.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2045	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7590	0.8510	0.7949	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6350	0.6075	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1790	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3664	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6210	0.6630	0.6374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5470	0.5244	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4264	0.4262	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0690	1.0870	1.0760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.889	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.889	2.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	1.000	1.944	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.011	0.122
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.038
predicted_H	0.669	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.436	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	-0.040

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.011	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.467	0.006
predicted_H	0.690	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.135	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.004
predicted_R	0.563	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.003	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2414	0.3333	0.5862	0.2414	0.1035	0.2759	0.1379	0.2759
season	0.60	18	-	52.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	19.000	0.2692	0.3770	0.4808	0.2692	0.0577	0.1538	0.1731	0.3654

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2330
predicted_AVG	0.2462
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.7960
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3285
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.4358
predicted_SO	0.9420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1430	0.1223	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8890	3.2330	3.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3910	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7960	0.6693	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1540	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3285	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4900	0.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5330	0.4470	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4358	0.4359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9420	1.0157	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2712

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.750	-0.271	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.706	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	3.000	-0.941	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.750	-0.411	-0.750
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.750	-0.339	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.706	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.706	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.550	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.626	-0.080
predicted_H	0.914	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.633	0.008
predicted_H	0.943	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.005
predicted_R	0.484	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.033
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3810	0.3810	0.3810	0.3810	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.4444	0.3333	0.0278	0.1389	0.1667	0.2222
season	0.60	17	-	59.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	12.000	0.2712	0.4110	0.3390	0.2712	0.0169	0.1186	0.2034	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2876
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3821
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.3763
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0920	0.0710	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.6890	3.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2876	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7060	0.4860	0.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.0610	0.9143	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0760	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3821	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4350	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4170	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3763	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.8010	0.7407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2792

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.850	5.000	0.150	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.400	0.471	0.350
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	2.000	1.925	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.175	1.000	1.825	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.400	0.438	0.400
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	2.000	0.550	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	6.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	2.000	5.300	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	2.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.000	2.006	1.500
predicted_SO	0.425	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.425	1.000	0.575	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.425	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.854	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	-0.011
predicted_H	0.949	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.632	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.426	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.854	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.001
predicted_BB	0.520	0.006
predicted_H	0.979	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.157	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.009
predicted_R	0.464	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.668	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.012
predicted_SO	0.421	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	6.000	5.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.2105	0.3043	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.0526
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.2250	0.3043	0.3500	0.2250	0.0250	0.1750	0.1250	0.0750
season	0.60	40	-	154.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	7.000	28.000	18.000	21.000	17.000	0.2792	0.3616	0.4935	0.2792	0.0454	0.1818	0.1364	0.1104

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.8600
predicted_AVG	0.2531
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.3338
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.6490
predicted_SLG	0.4333
predicted_SO	0.4280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1880	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0150	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.8600	3.8541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2531	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4980	0.5140	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9770	0.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1590	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4230	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6490	0.6318	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4333	0.4331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4250	0.4280	0.4262	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	6
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Slade Cecconi (677944) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	1.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.111	0.000	-0.111	3.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.000	5.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.844	4.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.222	7.000	1.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	17.000	37.000	7.000	20.000	5.000	6.0395	1.7368	0.6711	1.4605	0.2763	0.7895	0.1974
last_10	0.35	9	45.000	28.000	54.000	17.000	38.000	8.000	5.6000	1.5778	0.6222	1.2000	0.3778	0.8444	0.1778
season	0.20	9	45.000	28.000	54.000	17.000	38.000	8.000	5.6000	1.5778	0.6222	1.2000	0.3778	0.8444	0.1778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6890
predicted_ER	2.9310
predicted_ERA	5.2762
predicted_H	6.0490
predicted_HR	0.8430
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3030
predicted_WHIP	1.5476

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6890	1.8448	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.9310	2.9656	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2762	5.2762	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	6.0490	7.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8430	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.3030	5.1530	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5476	1.5476	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	8
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	107

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.60
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677944
playerID	677944
playerName	Slade Cecconi
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.905	0.000	-0.905	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.010	1.000	0.090	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.476	2.000	0.524	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	1.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	2.000	17.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	1.5938	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.200	7.000	19.000	5.000	31.000	1.000	2.9077	1.1077	0.3231	0.8769	0.2308	1.4308	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	3.1547
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2910
predicted_WHIP	1.0792

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2940	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3510	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1547	3.1547	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7850	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2910	1.7003	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0792	1.0792	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.077	0.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.669	1.000	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4400	0.6000	1.2000	0.2400	0.4800	0.2400
season	0.20	12	10.100	6.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	5.2258	1.4516	0.5806	1.1613	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_ER	0.4390
predicted_ERA	4.0885
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7690
predicted_WHIP	1.3050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3260	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4390	0.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0885	4.0885	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9350	0.9772	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7690	0.9191	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3050	1.3050	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	0.100	-0.483	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.565	1.000	-0.565	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000	0.0000	0.8182	2.7273	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1250	0.6250	2.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	23	19.200	4.000	7.000	10.000	36.000	1.000	1.8305	0.8644	0.2034	0.3559	0.5085	1.8305	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_ER	0.1950
predicted_ERA	2.5231
predicted_H	0.4020
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0840
predicted_WHIP	1.0918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3580	0.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1950	0.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5231	2.5231	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4020	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0840	1.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0918	1.0918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.83
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.950	0.000	-0.950	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	0.100	0.205	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	20	20.100	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	4.8689	1.1803	0.5410	0.9344	0.2459	0.9836	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_ER	0.3390
predicted_ERA	4.3749
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7600
predicted_WHIP	1.3114

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2440	1.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3390	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3749	4.3749	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6690	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7600	0.9001	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3114	1.3114	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_CIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: DET

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 32

All-history rows before 20260518: 32

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2793

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.469	3.000	1.531	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	-0.079	0.200
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.969	0.000	0.031	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.000	-0.122	0.200
predicted_R	0.437	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	1.875	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.049	0.400
predicted_SO	0.938	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	1.000	1.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.510	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.437	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.480	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	0.016
predicted_H	0.921	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.148	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.201	-0.003
predicted_H	0.886	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.023
predicted_R	0.395	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.138	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.989	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.4375
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2581	0.3429	0.2903	0.2581	0.0000	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.60	32	-	111.000	31.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	30.000	0.2793	0.3220	0.3514	0.2793	0.0360	0.0541	0.2703

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.2641
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3175
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.1460
predicted_SLG	0.3444
predicted_SO	1.0340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2030	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5100	3.4340	3.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2641	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.2280	0.2036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9070	0.9210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3175	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4370	0.4020	0.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1460	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3444	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	1.0340	0.9755	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 24

All-history rows before 20260518: 24

System season_avg: 0.1510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1512

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	3.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.151	0.333	0.099	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.542	1.000	0.458	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.198	0.333	0.052	-0.083
predicted_R	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.292	1.000	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.174	0.333	0.076	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.292	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.617	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000
predicted_H	0.575	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.322	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.543	0.043

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.206	-0.003
predicted_H	0.553	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.023	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.029
predicted_R	0.301	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.205	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.197	-0.036
predicted_SO	0.551	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.2105	0.1842	0.0790	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.60	24	-	86.000	13.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.1512	0.1978	0.1744	0.1512	0.0581	0.0581	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6720
predicted_AVG	0.1815
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2274
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.2334
predicted_SO	0.6150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0960	0.0879	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.6720	3.6166	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1815	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.2090	0.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6660	0.5751	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2274	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2920	0.3720	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2530	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2334	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6150	0.5434	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.151

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	-0.292	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.614	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.614	0.000	0.386	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.250	-0.196	-0.050
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.250	-0.423	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.614	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.800	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.602	-0.012
predicted_H	0.968	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.587	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.581	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.594	-0.008
predicted_H	0.931	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.018
predicted_R	0.547	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.227	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.005
predicted_SO	0.589	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1944	0.1389
season	0.60	44	-	168.000	49.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	28.000	27.000	25.000	0.2917	0.3959	0.4226	0.2917	0.0119	0.0952	0.1607	0.1488

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.2592
predicted_BB	0.5840
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3648
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.3522
predicted_SO	0.5990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.1820	0.2356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0250	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.7750	3.8003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2592	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6140	0.5840	0.6017	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9790	0.9678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3648	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.5160	0.5866	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2490	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.5990	0.5808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2115

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.586	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	3.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.122	0.333
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	1.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	0.000	0.241	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.216	0.250
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	0.483	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.000	-0.022	0.333
predicted_SO	0.621	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.586	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.621	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	0.013
predicted_H	0.686	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.005
predicted_H	0.660	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.029
predicted_R	0.333	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.365	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.639	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.60	29	-	104.000	22.000	9.000	2.000	15.000	10.000	11.000	18.000	0.2115	0.2845	0.3558	0.2115	0.0192	0.1442	0.1058	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6980
predicted_AVG	0.2095
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_OBP	0.2897
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.3679
predicted_SO	0.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.2200	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5860	3.6980	3.6297	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2095	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.4130	0.3923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7750	0.6865	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1200	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2897	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3760	0.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4410	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3679	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6210	0.6460	0.6307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3214

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.652	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.652	4.000	0.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.179	0.500
predicted_BB	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.174	0.000	0.826	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.000	0.188	0.600
predicted_R	0.587	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.587	0.000	0.413	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.024	0.500
predicted_SO	1.174	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.174	2.000	0.826	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.652	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.565	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.587	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	1.174	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.696	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	-0.051
predicted_H	1.174	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.000
predicted_R	0.536	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.507	-0.007
predicted_H	1.130	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.014
predicted_R	0.500	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.432	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.437	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.176	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4000	0.3500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	16.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.5526	0.4210	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
season	0.60	46	-	168.000	54.000	14.000	4.000	23.000	27.000	26.000	54.000	0.3214	0.4124	0.4762	0.3214	0.0238	0.1369	0.1548	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7580
predicted_AVG	0.3333
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	1.2520
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.4037
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.4654
predicted_SO	1.1410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.3050	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6520	3.7580	3.6955	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3333	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5650	0.4410	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2520	1.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4037	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5870	0.4630	0.5361	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4960	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4654	0.4652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1740	1.1410	1.1604	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zack Short (670097) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.938	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.417	0.417
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.938	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.689	0.189
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.839	-0.099
predicted_H	0.351	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.338	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.177	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.033

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	-0.049
predicted_BB	0.828	-0.011
predicted_H	0.337	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.137	0.000
predicted_HR	0.047	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.018
predicted_R	0.316	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.165	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.190	-0.093
predicted_SO	0.667	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	8.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500
last_10	0.20	4	-	8.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500
season	0.60	4	-	8.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.2860
predicted_AVG	0.1743
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	0.5730
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3132
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.2824
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1120	0.0270	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2860	2.6895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1743	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9380	0.5260	0.8387	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.5730	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0750	0.0484	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3132	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.4210	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.2920	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2824	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.7610	0.6578	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	670097
playerID	670097
playerName	Zack Short
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	3.000	1.189	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.667	-0.055	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	2.000	0.027	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.750	-0.131	-0.550
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.667	-0.282	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.784	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.784	0.000	2.216	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.784	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.809	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.028
predicted_H	0.998	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.192	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.498	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.479	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.005
predicted_H	0.960	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.187	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.032
predicted_R	0.442	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.465	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.024
predicted_SO	0.794	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4545	0.5789	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.4474	0.2368	0.0526	0.0526	0.1316	0.2368
season	0.60	37	-	141.000	36.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	17.000	12.000	29.000	0.2553	0.3312	0.4823	0.2553	0.0567	0.1915	0.0851	0.2057

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8060
predicted_AVG	0.2694
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3468
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4787
predicted_SO	0.7830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2050	0.2116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.8060	3.8090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2694	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3930	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0250	0.9981	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1960	0.1924	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3468	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4950	0.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5100	0.4981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4787	0.4789	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7840	0.7830	0.7836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	1.568	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.001	0.200
predicted_BB	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.682	0.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.115	0.200
predicted_R	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	0.029	0.400
predicted_SO	1.341	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.341	2.000	-0.341	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.341	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.456	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.039
predicted_H	0.567	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.289	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.387	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.456	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.522	-0.007
predicted_H	0.545	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.022
predicted_R	0.270	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.294	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.406	0.019

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.5882
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	17.000	0.1429	0.2439	0.2000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0857	0.1143	0.4857
season	0.60	44	-	151.000	30.000	8.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	25.000	59.000	0.1987	0.3146	0.3709	0.1987	0.0397	0.1126	0.1656	0.3907

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4910
predicted_AVG	0.1818
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.2901
predicted_R	0.2480
predicted_RBI	0.3510
predicted_SLG	0.3018
predicted_SO	1.4550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1530	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.4910	3.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1818	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.4730	0.5293	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6350	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2901	0.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.2480	0.2895	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3510	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3018	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3410	1.4550	1.3875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.318	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.318	4.000	0.682	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.250	0.072	0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.250	0.003	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.318	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.091	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.386	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.004
predicted_H	0.603	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.118	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.196	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.386	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.310	-0.004
predicted_H	0.580	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.043	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.024
predicted_R	0.111	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.183	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.236	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.742	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	0.1562	0.2500	0.1562	0.1562	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.2188
season	0.60	22	-	73.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	0.1781	0.2500	0.2466	0.1781	0.0137	0.0685	0.0959	0.2192

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5030
predicted_AVG	0.1976
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.6920
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2650
predicted_R	0.1650
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.2688
predicted_SO	0.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0870	0.0895	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3180	3.5030	3.3865	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1976	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3080	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6920	0.6026	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0910	0.1650	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2230	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2688	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7410	0.7322	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Framber Valdez (664285) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.889	2.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	2.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.667	5.000	-1.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.478	6.200	-0.378	-1.100
predicted_SO	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_SO	4.667	7.000	5.333	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	14.000	27.000	10.000	29.000	5.000	4.8462	1.4231	0.5385	1.0385	0.3846	1.1154	0.1923
last_10	0.35	9	50.000	24.000	51.000	17.000	42.000	5.000	4.3200	1.3600	0.4800	1.0200	0.3400	0.8400	0.1000
season	0.20	9	50.000	24.000	51.000	17.000	42.000	5.000	4.3200	1.3600	0.4800	1.0200	0.3400	0.8400	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0110
predicted_ER	2.7000
predicted_ERA	4.4876
predicted_H	5.4060
predicted_HR	0.7980
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3540
predicted_WHIP	1.3695

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0110	1.5046	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.7000	3.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4876	4.4876	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.4060	4.7018	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.7980	1.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	10.0000	5.3540	7.6811	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3695	1.3695	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	10
HR	2
BF	21
Pitches	101

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	106
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	664285
playerID	664285
playerName	Framber Valdez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.364	1.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.309	1.100	-0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.727	1.000	-1.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	5.000	14.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	3.2143	1.3571	0.3571	1.0000	0.3571	1.2857	0.0714
season	0.20	11	15.100	5.000	15.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	2.9348	1.3696	0.3261	0.9783	0.3913	1.2391	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.5930
predicted_ERA	4.1815
predicted_H	1.2690
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2650
predicted_WHIP	1.4082

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5290	1.4304	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5930	0.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1815	4.1815	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2690	1.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2650	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4082	1.4082	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	1.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.3103	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	14	12.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	2.1892	0.8919	0.2432	0.5676	0.3243	1.4595	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.3540
predicted_ERA	3.1822
predicted_H	0.7390
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1430
predicted_WHIP	1.0794

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3540	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1822	3.1822	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7390	0.9044	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1430	1.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0794	1.0794	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.762	1.000	2.238	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	1.810	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.157	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.5000	1.5000	0.1667	0.6667	0.8333	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	1.5429	1.2857	0.1714	0.6857	0.6000	0.8571	0.1714
season	0.20	20	21.200	2.000	13.000	15.000	14.000	2.000	0.8308	1.2923	0.0923	0.6000	0.6923	0.6462	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.3620
predicted_ERA	2.9004
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8750
predicted_WHIP	1.3475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.6040	1.9871	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3620	1.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9004	2.9004	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9100	0.9620	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0668	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8750	0.9472	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3475	1.3475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

20260518_HOU@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 MIN", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 5 MIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": true, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	HOU 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	HOU 6 - 5 MIN	HOU	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away HOU	4-6	0.400	2.70	4.10	-14	1L	cold	average
Home MIN	5-5	0.500	4.10	3.70	4	1W	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away HOU	19-29	0.396	-51	-1.062	True
Home MIN	21-26	0.447	-6	-0.128	True
Signal	-	-	0.935	1.011	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target HOU	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized HOU	33	9	2	0	2	1	9
Player finalized MIN	34	9	4	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional HOU	32.49	7.07	3.64	1.11	3.02	2.84	7.63
Player model fractional MIN	32.32	7.67	4.70	0.83	3.89	3.46	7.90
Simulation box HOU	41	11	6	1	6	2	5
Simulation box MIN	41	12	5	1	5	4	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away HOU	Starter	Tatsuya Imai	3	3	3	11	1	6.44	1.64	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.78	1.43	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	2	0	0	0	2	3.89	1.36	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	1	0	0	0	3.65	1.35	True
Away HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1.20	0	1	0	1	4.25	1.27	True
Away HOU	Reliever	Jayden Murray	1	1	0	1	0	4.32	1.38	-
Home MIN	Starter	Kendry Rojas	3	3	2	6	2	3.81	1.51	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1.10	1	0	1	0	3.50	1.42	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	2	0	1	0	0	3.16	1.33	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	2.10	0	1	1	0	7.70	1.79	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Luis García	1.10	2	1	3	0	5.25	1.44	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: HOU

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.250	0.089	0.150
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.089	0.150
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.489	0.500	-0.089	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.765	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.038	0.038
predicted_H	0.964	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	0.690	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.037	-0.000
predicted_H	0.956	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.051
predicted_R	0.342	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.443	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.054
predicted_SO	0.695	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.3514	0.3514	0.5676	0.3513	0.0541	0.1622	0.1351
season	0.60	12	-	45.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.3111	0.3111	0.4889	0.3111	0.0444	0.1333	0.1778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7940
predicted_AVG	0.2878
predicted_BB	0.1130
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3122
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.4503
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2030	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7940	3.7647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2878	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1130	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0920	0.9639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1340	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3122	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3770	0.3477	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5130	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4503	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7360	0.6900	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2075

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	4.000	1.581	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.250	-0.008	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	1.000	-0.032	-1.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.710	1.000	0.290	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.250	-0.048	-0.050
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.250	-0.177	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.129	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.129	1.000	-1.129	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.129	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.033	0.001
predicted_AB	3.509	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	-0.015
predicted_H	0.689	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.254	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.071	-0.058

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.509	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.001
predicted_H	0.683	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.017
predicted_R	0.390	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.249	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.313	-0.026
predicted_SO	1.079	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.1842	0.1842	0.2368	0.1842	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105
season	0.60	31	-	106.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	12.000	6.000	35.000	0.2075	0.2478	0.3774	0.2076	0.0377	0.1132	0.0566	0.3302

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2182
predicted_BB	0.1550
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.2501
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.3388
predicted_SO	0.9800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1020	0.1185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0340	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.6510	3.5092	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2182	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1550	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7970	0.6888	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0900	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2501	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.4130	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2910	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1290	0.9800	1.0711	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1879

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.465	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.465	2.000	1.535	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.138	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.012	0.200
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	1.000	-0.442	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.651	0.000	0.349	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.333	-0.087	-0.133
predicted_R	0.372	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	0.000	0.628	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.349	0.000	1.651	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.000	-0.089	0.200
predicted_SO	1.163	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.163	1.000	0.837	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.465	-
predicted_AVG	0.138	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.212	-
predicted_SO	1.163	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.421	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.138	0.000
predicted_BB	0.451	0.009
predicted_H	0.414	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.208	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	1.163	0.000

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.120	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.003
predicted_H	0.410	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.044	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.027
predicted_R	0.324	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.205	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.195	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.171	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.118 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4667
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	0.0333	0.1714	0.0333	0.0333	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3667
season	0.60	43	-	149.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	19.000	50.000	0.1879	0.2865	0.2886	0.1879	0.0201	0.1007	0.1275	0.3356

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3570
predicted_AVG	0.1380
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	0.4630
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2493
predicted_R	0.2680
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.2120
predicted_SO	1.1630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.0930	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4650	3.3570	3.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1380	0.1380	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.4650	0.4513	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.4630	0.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2493	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.2680	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2350	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2120	0.2120	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1630	1.1630	1.1630	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	4.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.500	-0.011	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.080	-0.100
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.478	0.500	-0.228	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.378	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.297	0.011
predicted_H	0.793	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.378	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.295	-0.002
predicted_H	0.786	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.034
predicted_R	0.303	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.235	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.035
predicted_SO	1.134	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.20	7	-	23.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.0870	0.3478
season	0.60	7	-	23.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.0870	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2720
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2625
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.4115
predicted_SO	1.0860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2720	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6040	3.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2625	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3240	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9460	0.7927	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0840	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3630	0.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2850	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4115	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0860	1.1264	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.318	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.318	2.000	0.682	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.333	-0.075	-0.083
predicted_R	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.000	-0.188	0.250
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.318	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.322	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.016
predicted_H	0.612	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.301	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000
predicted_SO	0.646	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.322	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.002
predicted_H	0.606	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.089	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.022
predicted_R	0.296	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.313	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.651	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.2333	0.1333	0.0333	0.0333	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.60	22	-	73.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	7.000	14.000	0.2603	0.3250	0.4384	0.2603	0.0411	0.1644	0.0959	0.1918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3280
predicted_AVG	0.2099
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.6990
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.2717
predicted_R	0.2720
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3434
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1230	0.1602	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3180	3.3280	3.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2099	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.2740	0.3017	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6990	0.6115	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1050	0.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2717	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.2720	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3680	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3434	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.6640	0.6464	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.659	4.000	1.341	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	-0.053	0.200
predicted_BB	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	0.000	0.073	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.145	0.200
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.020	0.400
predicted_SO	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	0.317	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.659	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.680	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	-0.028
predicted_H	0.795	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.336	-0.002
predicted_H	0.789	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.131	0.000
predicted_HR	0.113	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.021
predicted_R	0.376	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.362	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.721	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.60	41	-	150.000	38.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	17.000	15.000	28.000	0.2533	0.3450	0.3800	0.2533	0.0267	0.1200	0.1000	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2204
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_OBP	0.3009
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.3529
predicted_SO	0.7630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1320	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6590	3.7110	3.6801	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2204	0.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.2980	0.3384	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8180	0.7954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1190	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3009	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.3360	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3810	0.3685	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3529	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.7630	0.7155	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.213	0.000	-0.213	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.617	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.617	2.000	0.383	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.362	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.362	0.000	0.638	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	0.000	0.043	1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.234	0.000	-0.234	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.333	0.060	0.067
predicted_R	0.574	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.574	0.000	0.426	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.638	0.000	0.362	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	-0.268	0.250
predicted_SO	0.809	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.809	1.000	-0.809	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.617	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.362	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.574	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.809	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.582	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.005
predicted_H	0.707	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.092	-
predicted_HR	0.237	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.499	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.582	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.354	-0.003
predicted_H	0.701	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.092	0.000
predicted_HR	0.235	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.027
predicted_R	0.543	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.491	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.840	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.0882	0.1842	0.2941	0.0882	0.0588	0.0882	0.0882	0.2647
season	0.60	47	-	170.000	45.000	10.000	11.000	30.000	27.000	17.000	38.000	0.2647	0.3403	0.5176	0.2647	0.0647	0.1765	0.1000	0.2235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5320
predicted_AVG	0.2072
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HBP	0.0920
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_OBP	0.2952
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.5130
predicted_SLG	0.4593
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2130	0.1490	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6170	3.5320	3.5821	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2072	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3620	0.3490	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7320	0.7072	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0920	0.0920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2460	0.2366	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5740	0.5210	0.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5130	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4593	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8090	0.8690	0.8336	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jeremy Peña (665161) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 10

All-history rows before 20260518: 10

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.360	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.300	3.000	0.700	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.333	-0.256	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.333	-0.304	-0.333
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.349	0.333	-0.349	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.264	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.012
predicted_H	1.047	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.207	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.617	0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.264	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.002
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.002
predicted_H	1.038	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.004
predicted_R	0.481	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.203	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.019
predicted_SO	0.621	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 4.360

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2857	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	11.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2558	0.3043	0.3488	0.2558	0.0698	0.1395
season	0.60	10	-	43.000	11.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2558	0.3043	0.3488	0.2558	0.0698	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0730
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.3481
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2500	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3600	4.0730	4.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2640	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0010	1.0469	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0520	0.0573	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4680	0.4893	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2000	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3481	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6500	0.6167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260411_HOU@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	665161
playerID	665161
playerName	Jeremy Peña
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 48

All-history rows before 20260518: 48

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3161

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	1.771	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.434	0.750
predicted_BB	0.604	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.604	0.000	0.396	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	0.000	1.854	3.000
predicted_HR	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.000	0.377	0.800
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.646	0.000	2.354	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.647	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.638	0.000	1.362	2.000
predicted_SO	0.688	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	2.000	-0.688	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.604	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.647	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.566	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.614	0.010
predicted_H	1.105	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.309	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.601	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.647	0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.566	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.307	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.610	-0.004
predicted_H	1.096	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.307	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.408	-0.018
predicted_R	0.591	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.523	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.629	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.718	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 48

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.4000	0.5263	0.8667	0.4000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.3030	0.4250	0.6364	0.3030	0.0909	0.1212	0.2121	0.3636
season	0.60	48	-	174.000	55.000	11.000	15.000	31.000	30.000	29.000	33.000	0.3161	0.4231	0.6379	0.3161	0.0862	0.1782	0.1667	0.1897

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.3194
predicted_BB	0.6280
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.3080
predicted_OBP	0.4266
predicted_R	0.5670
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.6470
predicted_SO	0.7470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2140	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.4810	3.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3194	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6040	0.6280	0.6139	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1120	1.1050	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3080	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4266	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.5670	0.6010	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5350	0.5321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6470	0.6470	0.6470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.7470	0.7124	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	48
Season rows before report date	48
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	48
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Tatsuya Imai (837227) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	3.500	3.000	-2.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	3.250	6.000	-0.250	-3.000
predicted_H	11.000	11.000	11.000	Pitching_H	3.000	5.000	8.000	6.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.875	4.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	3.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	12.200	13.000	12.000	14.000	16.000	2.000	9.2368	2.0526	1.0263	0.9474	1.1053	1.2632	0.1579
last_10	0.35	4	12.200	13.000	12.000	14.000	16.000	2.000	9.2368	2.0526	1.0263	0.9474	1.1053	1.2632	0.1579
season	0.20	4	12.200	13.000	12.000	14.000	16.000	2.000	9.2368	2.0526	1.0263	0.9474	1.1053	1.2632	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.7270
predicted_ER	2.7830
predicted_ERA	6.4414
predicted_H	3.6650
predicted_HR	0.5540
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.2370
predicted_WHIP	1.6437

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.7270	1.7172	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7830	2.9099	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.4414	6.4414	form_only
predicted_H	11.0000	3.6650	7.9541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5540	0.8148	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.2370	3.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6437	1.6437	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	11
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	9.24
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	46
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	837227
playerID	837227
playerName	Tatsuya Imai
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.056	2.000	-1.056	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.378	0.200	-0.278	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	0.000	-1.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.100	3.000	6.000	8.000	7.000	1.000	3.2400	1.6800	0.3600	0.7200	0.9600	0.8400	0.1200
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	4.000	8.000	11.000	12.000	1.000	2.5714	1.3571	0.2857	0.5714	0.7857	0.8571	0.0714
season	0.20	18	26.200	15.000	22.000	19.000	22.000	4.000	5.0625	1.5375	0.5625	0.8250	0.7125	0.8250	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8750
predicted_ER	0.5920
predicted_ERA	3.7763
predicted_H	1.1430
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2630
predicted_WHIP	1.4307

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8750	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5920	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7763	3.7763	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1430	0.5083	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1680	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2630	0.5616	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4307	1.4307	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	1.000	1.471	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.012	0.200	0.988	1.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	2.8421	1.4211	0.3158	0.7895	0.6316	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	6.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	4.5000	1.4167	0.5000	0.9167	0.5000	0.4167
season	0.20	17	20.000	7.000	18.000	9.000	16.000	3.1500	1.3500	0.3500	0.9000	0.4500	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_ER	0.5760
predicted_ERA	3.8864
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0130
predicted_WHIP	1.3559

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.6050	1.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5760	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8864	3.8864	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2030	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0130	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3559	1.3559	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.100	0.150	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0588	0.0000	0.5294	0.5294	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.7273	0.7273	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	16	15.000	13.000	14.000	18.000	21.000	4.000	7.8000	2.1333	0.8667	0.9333	1.2000	1.4000	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.4050
predicted_ERA	3.6460
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9910
predicted_WHIP	1.3523

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4050	0.7709	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6460	3.6460	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8420	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9910	0.3816	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3523	1.3523	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.059	3.000	-1.059	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	0.100	0.271	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	13.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	1.3000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.200	9.000	18.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	4.5849	1.2453	0.5094	1.0189	0.2264	0.9057	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_ER	0.4720
predicted_ERA	4.2464
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	1.2664

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2840	0.7125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4720	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2464	4.2464	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9820	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9620	0.9847	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2664	1.2664	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jayden Murray (681151) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.000	4.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.667	3.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	6	10.000	6.000	12.000	5.000	5.000	5.4000	1.7000	0.6000	1.2000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	6	10.000	6.000	12.000	5.000	5.000	5.4000	1.7000	0.6000	1.2000	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.3420
predicted_ERA	4.3235
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5420
predicted_WHIP	1.3764

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3420	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3235	4.3235	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7300	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0660	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5420	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3764	1.3764	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	49
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	37
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681151
playerID	681151
playerName	Jayden Murray
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: MIN

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	3.000	1.526	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.188	0.400
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	1.263	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.254	0.250	0.146	0.150
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_SO	1.316	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.316	1.000	-1.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	1.316	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.517	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	0.017
predicted_H	0.631	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.100	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.177	0.002
predicted_H	0.652	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.029
predicted_R	0.394	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.033
predicted_SO	1.261	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.1892	0.2308	0.2703	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.60	19	-	66.000	14.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	7.000	3.000	25.000	0.2121	0.2535	0.3636	0.2121	0.0454	0.2121	0.0454	0.3788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.2051
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.2534
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.3253
predicted_SO	1.1990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0740	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.5920	3.5168	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2051	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.2050	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7370	0.6306	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1170	0.0998	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2534	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3830	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5250	0.4454	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3253	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3160	1.1990	1.2735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 30

All-history rows before 20260518: 30

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.057	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.500	-0.155	-0.300
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	1.000	-0.267	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.369	0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.523	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	-0.039
predicted_H	0.989	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.171	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.530	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	-0.054

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.369	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.523	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.331	0.003
predicted_H	1.022	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.131	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.022
predicted_R	0.536	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.507	-0.023
predicted_SO	0.937	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4500	0.7895	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	0.3438	0.4324	0.6250	0.3438	0.0312	0.0938	0.0625	0.2188
season	0.60	30	-	105.000	27.000	10.000	4.000	12.000	15.000	11.000	30.000	0.2571	0.3554	0.4667	0.2571	0.0381	0.1143	0.1048	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4240
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2947
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.1710
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3729
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.5296
predicted_SO	0.8630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.4240	0.3687	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5600	3.5235	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2947	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.2670	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0490	0.9888	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1710	0.1710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3729	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5210	0.5082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4270	0.4045	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5296	0.5298	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8630	0.9463	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2755

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.379	4.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.026	0.000
predicted_BB	0.621	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	0.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	1.000	0.069	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	1.000	-0.069	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.250	0.007	0.150
predicted_R	0.552	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.552	1.000	-0.552	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	1.000	-0.414	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.418	1.000	0.082	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.724	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	1.000	1.276	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.379	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.428	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.569	-0.052
predicted_H	0.866	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.428	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.002
predicted_BB	0.575	0.006
predicted_H	0.895	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.106	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.007
predicted_R	0.565	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.018
predicted_SO	0.736	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.3889	0.2500	0.0278	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.60	29	-	98.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	18.000	21.000	0.2755	0.3932	0.4184	0.2755	0.0204	0.1225	0.1837	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.5040
predicted_AVG	0.2586
predicted_BB	0.4880
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.3601
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.3880
predicted_SLG	0.4080
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1680	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0200	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3790	3.5040	3.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2586	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.4880	0.5691	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9060	0.8658	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1050	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3601	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.5080	0.5348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3880	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4080	0.4080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.7740	0.7435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	2.000	1.516	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	-0.115	0.200
predicted_BB	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.677	1.000	0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.097	0.000	-0.097	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.333	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.436	0.500	-0.103	-0.167
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	-0.198	0.200
predicted_SO	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.540	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.677	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.613	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.601	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.611	-0.066
predicted_H	1.040	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.102	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.601	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.009
predicted_BB	0.617	0.006
predicted_H	1.075	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.102	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.014
predicted_R	0.493	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.004
predicted_SO	0.630	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2927	0.3556	0.3659	0.2927	0.0000	0.0976	0.0732	0.1220
season	0.60	31	-	108.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	14.000	21.000	19.000	0.3148	0.4361	0.3981	0.3148	0.0093	0.0926	0.1944	0.1759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6940
predicted_AVG	0.2897
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.1020
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3870
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3875
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2400	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5400	3.6940	3.6010	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2897	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6770	0.5100	0.6108	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0700	1.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1020	0.1020	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4910	0.4675	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4060	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3875	0.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6130	0.6710	0.6360	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2062

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.250	0.294	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	1.000	1.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.327	0.350
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.250	0.444	0.500
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	1.000	-1.024	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.850	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.047
predicted_H	0.684	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.103	0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.289	0.003
predicted_H	0.707	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.003
predicted_R	0.457	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.553	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.092	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2500	0.1500	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	18.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2143	0.1667	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.4286
season	0.60	42	-	160.000	33.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	21.000	14.000	43.000	0.2062	0.2727	0.3063	0.2062	0.0187	0.1437	0.0875	0.2687

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9080
predicted_AVG	0.1954
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.7630
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.2383
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.5880
predicted_SLG	0.2939
predicted_SO	1.2190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2130	0.1857	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.9080	3.8499	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1954	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2180	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7630	0.6842	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2383	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3360	0.4332	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5880	0.5240	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2939	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	1.2190	1.1034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

James Outman (681546) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	3.000	1.636	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	1.364	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	2.000	-1.364	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.086	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.421	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.121	0.030
predicted_H	0.709	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	1.290	-0.075

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.086	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.122	0.001
predicted_H	0.733	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.041
predicted_R	0.494	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.277	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.5000	0.3125	0.1875	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	0.2353	0.2571	0.3824	0.2353	0.0882	0.0294	0.3824
season	0.60	11	-	37.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	15.000	0.2162	0.2368	0.3514	0.2162	0.0811	0.0270	0.4054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0740
predicted_AB	3.5420
predicted_AVG	0.2414
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.8550
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2822
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.3909
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2300	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.0740	0.0855	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.5420	3.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2414	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.1850	0.1212	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8550	0.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2822	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4950	0.4678	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4000	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3909	0.3910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.1320	1.2895	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681546
playerID	681546
playerName	James Outman
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2346

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	1.000	-0.023	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.682	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	3.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.667	-0.235	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	1.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	1.000	-0.023	-1.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	2.000	-0.864	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.750	-0.319	-0.750
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.315	1.333	-0.315	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.041	0.018
predicted_AB	3.649	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.011
predicted_H	0.812	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.081	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.426	0.004
predicted_H	0.839	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.023
predicted_R	0.516	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.027
predicted_SO	0.664	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3846	0.3438	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	15.000	21.000	19.000	28.000	0.2346	0.3189	0.3148	0.2346	0.0062	0.0926	0.1173	0.1728

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0670
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0810
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3336
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.3438
predicted_SO	0.7220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1350	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0670	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.6010	3.6489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.4060	0.4214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8860	0.8116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0810	0.0810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3336	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.5060	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2350	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3438	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7220	0.6712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2420

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	4.000	1.262	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.358	0.600
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	0.000	2.095	3.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.304	0.600
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.224	0.600
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	1.000	-0.690	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000
predicted_H	0.723	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.428	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.785	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.265	0.003
predicted_H	0.747	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.077	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.014
predicted_R	0.452	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.0952	0.1364	0.1429	0.0952	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.2564	0.2051	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1282
season	0.60	42	-	157.000	38.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	11.000	29.000	0.2420	0.2959	0.3758	0.2420	0.0319	0.1401	0.0701	0.1847

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.8140
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2644
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.3189
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1670	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.8530	3.7847	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8140	0.7225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0810	0.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2644	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.3940	0.4285	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3980	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3189	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.6390	0.6693	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2966

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.576	3.000	0.424	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.667	0.203	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	0.939	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.212	1.000	0.788	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.404	0.750	0.196	-0.150
predicted_R	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.758	2.000	0.242	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.788	1.000	1.212	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.556	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.542	1.667	0.708	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.697	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.576	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.758	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.556	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.001
predicted_3B	0.025	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.549	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.653	0.017
predicted_H	0.970	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.397	-0.000
predicted_R	0.748	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.647	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.556	0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.549	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.002
predicted_BB	0.660	0.007
predicted_H	1.002	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.253	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.395	-0.002
predicted_R	0.790	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.683	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.561	0.005
predicted_SO	0.644	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.6667	0.2667	0.1333	0.2000	0.3333	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	0.2857	0.4186	0.6571	0.2857	0.0857	0.1429	0.2286	0.1143
season	0.60	33	-	118.000	35.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	26.000	25.000	21.000	23.000	0.2966	0.4043	0.5424	0.2966	0.0593	0.2203	0.1780	0.1949

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.5080
predicted_AVG	0.2806
predicted_BB	0.6800
predicted_H	0.9840
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.3968
predicted_R	0.7340
predicted_RBI	0.6570
predicted_SLG	0.5560
predicted_SO	0.5810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1840	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0170	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5760	3.5080	3.5489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2806	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.6800	0.6535	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9840	0.9696	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2490	0.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3968	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7580	0.7340	0.7484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6570	0.6468	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5560	0.5560	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.5810	0.6508	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kendry Rojas (696070) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 3

All-history rows before 20260518: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.667	2.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	1.000	2.333	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	2.667	1.000	3.333	5.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.367	2.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	2.667	3.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	7.100	2.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.0909	1.0909	1.0909
last_10	0.35	3	7.100	2.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.0909	1.0909	1.0909
season	0.20	3	7.100	2.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.0909	1.0909	1.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9530
predicted_ER	1.5350
predicted_ERA	3.8110
predicted_H	3.5260
predicted_HR	0.3660
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5600
predicted_WHIP	1.5116

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9530	1.9848	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.5350	2.5273	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8110	3.8110	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	3.5260	5.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3660	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	3.2000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.5600	2.5034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5116	1.5116	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	67

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	41
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	696070
playerID	696070
playerName	Kendry Rojas
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	2.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	2.000	0.089	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	1.3500	1.6500	0.1500	0.9000	0.7500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	5.000	10.000	8.000	11.000	3.6486	1.4595	0.4054	0.8108	0.6486	0.8919
season	0.20	18	21.000	9.000	19.000	12.000	17.000	3.8571	1.4762	0.4286	0.9048	0.5714	0.8095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6860
predicted_ER	0.5190
predicted_ERA	3.5014
predicted_H	1.2100
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1420
predicted_WHIP	1.4220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6860	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5190	0.7982	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5014	3.5014	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2100	1.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0950	0.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1420	0.4791	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4220	1.4220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.211	1.000	-1.211	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.763	0.200	1.237	1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	9.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.3500	0.1500	1.3500	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	12.000	2.000	6.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875	0.5625
season	0.20	18	18.000	5.000	21.000	5.000	13.000	2.5000	1.4444	0.2778	1.1667	0.2778	0.7222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.4420
predicted_ERA	3.1612
predicted_H	1.3350
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0880
predicted_WHIP	1.3329

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3410	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4420	0.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1612	3.1612	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3350	0.5386	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0880	1.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3329	1.3329	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.609	0.000	-0.609	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.043	0.000	-0.043	1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.648	0.200	1.452	1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.652	0.000	0.348	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	9.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	17.3571	3.0000	1.9286	2.1429	0.8571	0.8571	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	3.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.3333	0.6667	1.0000	0.3333
season	0.20	23	19.100	14.000	24.000	10.000	15.000	4.000	6.5172	1.7586	0.7241	1.2414	0.5172	0.7759	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5280
predicted_ER	0.8560
predicted_ERA	7.7029
predicted_H	1.2600
predicted_HR	0.2680
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9250
predicted_WHIP	1.7876

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5280	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8560	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.7029	7.7029	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2600	1.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2680	0.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9250	0.9692	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7876	1.7876	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	0.189	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.3529	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	9.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	8.1000	1.7000	0.9000	1.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	15.000	11.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	6.6000	1.6667	0.7333	1.3333	0.3333	0.4000	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	5.2530
predicted_H	0.6200
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4220
predicted_WHIP	1.4384

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3400	1.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2530	5.2530	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.6200	2.0835	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4220	0.7774	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4384	1.4384	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260518_LAD@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 6 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 5 - 6 SD", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAD 5 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 6 SD", "winner": "SD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAD 5 - 6 SD	SD	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAD 4 - 6 SD	SD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAD	6-4	0.600	5.20	3.50	17	5W	hot	average
Home SD	6-4	0.600	3.30	3.30	0	3W	cold	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away LAD	29-18	0.617	94	2	True
Home SD	28-18	0.609	7	0.152	True
Signal	-	-	-1.848	-1.860	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAD	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target SD	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAD	34	9	7	0	6	2	9
Player finalized SD	34	9	0	0	2	0	9
Player model fractional LAD	33.38	8.00	5.86	1.25	4.96	4.04	7.60
Player model fractional SD	32.68	6.54	3.59	0.97	3.43	2.79	8.71
Simulation box LAD	34	8	4	1	4	4	9
Simulation box SD	28	7	6	1	6	4	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAD	Starter	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	6.10	3	6	4	4	4.09	1.15	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1.20	3	0	3	0	2.83	0.94	True
Away LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	0	0	0	0	0	4.88	1.36	True
Home SD	Starter	Michael King	5.20	3	6	6	4	3.15	1.15	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1	1	0	2	0	3.73	1.10	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	1	0	2	0	0	2.87	1.18	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1	0	1	0	0	2.64	1.22	True
Home SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	0.10	0	0	0	0	3.31	1.18	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAD

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2573

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	4.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	1.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.200	-0.135	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.386	1.000	-0.386	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	2.000	0.409	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.386	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.805	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.498	0.066
predicted_H	0.808	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.403	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.328	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.805	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	0.008
predicted_H	0.831	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.019
predicted_R	0.423	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.011
predicted_SO	0.606	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.1176	0.3182	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	0.1818	0.3415	0.3333	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.2424	0.1515
season	0.60	44	-	171.000	44.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	17.000	19.000	26.000	0.2573	0.3351	0.4035	0.2573	0.0234	0.1170	0.1111	0.1520

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.2183
predicted_BB	0.5920
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3292
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.3408
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1860	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.6890	3.8052	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2183	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.5920	0.4976	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8050	0.8079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3860	0.4270	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3250	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3408	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.6500	0.6152	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	4.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.500	0.020	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.600	-0.041	-0.400
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.440	1.250	0.360	-0.450
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.133	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	0.005
predicted_H	0.814	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.252	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.709	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.001
predicted_BB	0.259	0.004
predicted_H	0.837	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.261	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.009
predicted_R	0.744	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.611	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.4545	0.1818	0.0909	0.0909	0.0454	0.1364
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2222	0.4048	0.1667	0.0714	0.1191	0.0714	0.1429
season	0.60	12	-	50.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	0.1800	0.2407	0.4400	0.1800	0.0800	0.1800	0.0600	0.1400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	4.0700
predicted_AVG	0.2014
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_OBP	0.2583
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	0.5730
predicted_SLG	0.4214
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1130	0.0934	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	4.0700	4.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2014	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2630	0.2545	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8200	0.8135	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2570	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2583	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6300	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5730	0.5710	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4214	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.6920	0.6207	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2577

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	5.000	-0.543	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.600	-0.258	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.738	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.674	0.000	1.326	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.913	3.000	-0.913	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.600	0.015	-0.200
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	2.000	-0.522	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.454	0.600	-0.454	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.043	2.000	0.957	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.738	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.017
predicted_3B	0.040	0.016
predicted_AB	3.930	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.715	-0.023
predicted_H	1.050	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.000
predicted_R	0.734	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.763	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	1.148	0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.726	0.011
predicted_H	1.080	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.151	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.002
predicted_R	0.771	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.802	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.023
predicted_SO	1.130	-0.018

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.412)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.6818	0.3636	0.0454	0.3636	0.1818	0.3182
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	0.2927	0.3958	0.4878	0.2927	0.0244	0.2683	0.1707	0.2927
season	0.60	42	-	163.000	42.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	24.000	30.000	31.000	48.000	0.2577	0.3850	0.4540	0.2577	0.0429	0.1472	0.1902	0.2945

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0630
predicted_AB	3.9990
predicted_AVG	0.2804
predicted_BB	0.6810
predicted_H	1.1210
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3898
predicted_R	0.7630
predicted_RBI	0.8110
predicted_SLG	0.4919
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2540	0.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0630	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.9990	3.9296	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7380	0.6810	0.7145	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1210	1.0498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1550	0.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3898	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.7630	0.7342	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8110	0.7634	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4919	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1560	1.1484	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2606

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.600	0.239	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	3.000	1.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.600	0.142	-0.100
predicted_R	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	2.000	0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.800	0.088	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.841	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.841	1.000	-0.841	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.841	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	0.056
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.696	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	-0.015
predicted_H	0.996	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.070	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.728	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.562	0.009
predicted_H	1.024	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.008
predicted_R	0.764	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.030
predicted_SO	0.793	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5556	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	10.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	7.000	6.000	0.3226	0.4615	0.5161	0.3226	0.0000	0.1290	0.2258	0.1935
season	0.60	44	-	165.000	43.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	32.000	25.000	37.000	0.2606	0.3575	0.4121	0.2606	0.0242	0.1333	0.1515	0.2242

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4320
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6180
predicted_AVG	0.2817
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.0700
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3808
predicted_R	0.7290
predicted_RBI	0.4960
predicted_SLG	0.4527
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2950	0.4320	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6180	3.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2817	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.5320	0.5532	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0190	0.9960	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0700	0.0700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3808	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.7290	0.7278	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4960	0.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4527	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8410	0.7560	0.8061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.465	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.465	4.000	0.535	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.018	0.250
predicted_BB	0.558	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.558	1.000	-0.558	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.930	0.000	0.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.200	-0.120	0.050
predicted_R	0.814	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.814	1.000	0.186	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	0.558	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.544	0.000	-0.294	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.465	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.558	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.814	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.490	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.548	-0.010
predicted_H	0.743	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.220	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.871	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.416	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.490	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.018
predicted_BB	0.556	0.009
predicted_H	0.764	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.227	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.011
predicted_R	0.914	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.444	-0.029
predicted_SO	1.004	-0.016

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	12.000	0.2059	0.2895	0.4706	0.2059	0.0882	0.1765	0.1177	0.3529
season	0.60	43	-	149.000	40.000	5.000	12.000	19.000	35.000	24.000	43.000	0.2685	0.3699	0.5436	0.2685	0.0805	0.1275	0.1611	0.2886

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.2369
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_OBP	0.3378
predicted_R	0.9530
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.4734
predicted_SO	1.0500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.0850	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4650	3.5270	3.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2369	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5580	0.5330	0.5478	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8350	0.7430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2480	0.2195	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3378	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8140	0.9530	0.8705	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4680	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4734	0.4732	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0500	1.0203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	2.000	0.182	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	1.000	-0.394	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.600	0.171	-0.100
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	1.000	-0.576	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.500	0.369	0.250
predicted_SO	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.742	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.011
predicted_H	0.840	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.411	0.006
predicted_H	0.863	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.019
predicted_R	0.539	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4000	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.2571
season	0.60	33	-	126.000	33.000	3.000	4.000	19.000	16.000	13.000	25.000	0.2619	0.3287	0.3810	0.2619	0.0318	0.1508	0.1032	0.1984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2478
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3261
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.3898
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1070	0.0974	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.6270	3.7417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2478	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.4210	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8990	0.8395	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3261	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.5560	0.5133	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5380	0.5032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3898	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.8120	0.7796	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2680

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	4.000	-1.643	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.268	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.381	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	1.000	-0.976	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.400	-0.093	-0.150
predicted_R	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	-0.412	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.674	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.023
predicted_H	1.005	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.096	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.578	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.567	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.478	0.000
predicted_SO	1.101	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.363	0.006
predicted_H	1.034	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.096	0.000
predicted_HR	0.116	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.035
predicted_R	0.607	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.428	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.084	-0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.4500	0.5000	0.7000	0.4500	0.0500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.3611	0.4390	0.5278	0.3611	0.0278	0.1667	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.60	42	-	153.000	41.000	7.000	5.000	23.000	23.000	16.000	48.000	0.2680	0.3430	0.4118	0.2680	0.0327	0.1503	0.1046	0.3137

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7200
predicted_AVG	0.3113
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	1.1580
predicted_HBP	0.0960
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.3805
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.6500
predicted_SLG	0.4782
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2290	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.7200	3.6743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3113	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.3240	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.1580	1.0049	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0960	0.0960	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1290	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3805	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.6220	0.5781	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6500	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4782	0.4781	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0400	1.1011	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3023

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.739	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.739	5.000	0.261	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.200	-0.052	0.050
predicted_BB	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.130	1.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.200	-0.104	0.050
predicted_R	0.587	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.587	1.000	-0.587	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.891	2.000	-0.891	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	0.200	-0.273	0.050
predicted_SO	0.804	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.804	0.000	-0.804	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.739	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.283	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.587	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.804	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.737	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.031
predicted_H	0.831	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.788	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.319	0.005
predicted_H	0.855	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.030
predicted_R	0.620	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.827	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.420	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.779	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2683	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.60	46	-	172.000	52.000	8.000	10.000	41.000	27.000	13.000	37.000	0.3023	0.3545	0.5233	0.3023	0.0581	0.2384	0.0756	0.2151

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7340
predicted_AVG	0.2460
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	0.9190
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.3187
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.8710
predicted_SLG	0.4372
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1140	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7390	3.7340	3.7370	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2830	0.3580	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9190	0.8311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1990	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3187	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5870	0.5950	0.5903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8710	0.7878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4372	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8040	0.7740	0.7917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 30

All-history rows before 20260518: 30

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2717

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	3.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.667	-0.022	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.750	-0.090	-0.500
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	2.000	-0.433	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.667	-0.098	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.001
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.001
predicted_H	0.696	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.453	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.296	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.835	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.337	0.005
predicted_H	0.716	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.016
predicted_R	0.475	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.822	-0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.2571	0.2000	0.0000	0.0571	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.60	30	-	92.000	25.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	10.000	24.000	0.2717	0.3398	0.3478	0.2717	0.0109	0.1087	0.1087	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0340
predicted_AB	3.3510
predicted_AVG	0.2487
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.3271
predicted_SO	0.8920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0700	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0340	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.3510	3.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2487	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3310	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8340	0.6960	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0342	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.4840	0.4526	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3540	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3271	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8920	0.8353	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (808967) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	0.000	2.750	4.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	5.000	0.500	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.000	6.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.162	6.100	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	8.000	0.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	15.000	26.000	8.000	34.000	6.000	4.2188	1.0625	0.4688	0.8125	0.2500	1.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	8	50.000	20.000	40.000	10.000	48.000	8.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	0.9600	0.1600
season	0.20	8	50.000	20.000	40.000	10.000	48.000	8.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	0.9600	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8330
predicted_ER	2.8800
predicted_ERA	4.0925
predicted_H	5.4370
predicted_HR	1.0140
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	6.3300
predicted_WHIP	1.1480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.8330	2.9436	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.8800	3.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0925	4.0925	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.4370	5.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0140	0.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.3300	5.6484	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1480	1.1480	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	6
HR	0
BF	27
Pitches	108

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808967
playerID	808967
playerName	Yoshinobu Yamamoto
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	2.850	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	2.550	3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.870	1.000	0.330	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	1.0345	0.1035
season	0.20	20	18.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	18.000	2.000	1.4727	0.6000	0.1636	0.4909	0.1091	0.9818	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_ER	0.2540
predicted_ERA	2.8334
predicted_H	0.5520
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7870
predicted_WHIP	0.9422

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2090	0.0847	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2540	1.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8334	2.8334	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5520	1.4130	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0810	0.6275	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7870	0.9137	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9422	0.9422	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.47
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260514_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.735	1.000	-0.735	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	1.150	2.000	-1.150	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.0909	0.5454	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	5.8696	1.4348	0.6522	0.7826	0.6522	1.6957
season	0.20	20	16.100	5.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	2.7551	0.9796	0.3061	0.4898	0.4898	1.4082

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_ER	0.2520
predicted_ERA	4.8791
predicted_H	0.4220
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.5840
predicted_WHIP	1.3630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2110	0.0830	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2520	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8791	4.8791	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4220	0.1661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0370	0.0146	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5840	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3630	1.3630	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: SD

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 33

All-history rows before 20260518: 33

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2960

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	5.000	0.212	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.200	-0.046	0.050
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	1.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.200	-0.068	0.050
predicted_R	0.394	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	1.000	0.606	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.400	0.012	0.100
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.009
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.829	0.041
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.095	0.004
predicted_H	1.024	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.447	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.740	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.094	-0.001
predicted_H	0.984	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.020
predicted_R	0.388	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.384	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.013
predicted_SO	0.747	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.2250	0.2250	0.4000	0.2250	0.0250	0.1000	0.0000	0.2250
season	0.60	33	-	125.000	37.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	13.000	3.000	24.000	0.2960	0.3178	0.4880	0.2960	0.0240	0.1120	0.0240	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3550
predicted_3B	0.0330
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2730
predicted_BB	0.1000
predicted_H	1.0620
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.4466
predicted_SO	0.7610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3550	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0330	0.0499	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	3.8920	3.8291	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2730	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.1000	0.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0620	1.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0850	0.0820	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.4460	0.4145	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4270	0.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4466	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7610	0.7404	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2321

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	5.000	-1.818	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.200	0.268	0.300
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.200	0.191	0.300
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.274	0.200	0.226	0.300
predicted_SO	1.068	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.068	1.000	-1.068	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	1.068	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.853	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.018
predicted_H	0.818	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.000
predicted_R	0.348	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	1.060	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.410	-0.004
predicted_H	0.785	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.003
predicted_R	0.326	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.252	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.1944	0.1944	0.0556	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.60	44	-	168.000	39.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	47.000	0.2321	0.3089	0.2738	0.2321	0.0833	0.1131	0.2798

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8440
predicted_AVG	0.2118
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	0.8140
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.2836
predicted_R	0.3260
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.2539
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0840	0.1017	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.8440	3.8534	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2118	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3880	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8140	0.8175	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2836	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3260	0.3484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2680	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0680	1.0490	1.0602	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2531

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	3.000	-1.682	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	-0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	1.000	0.591	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.932	0.000	-0.932	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	-0.078	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.477	1.000	0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.477	0.000	0.523	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.000	-0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.705	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.705	2.000	0.295	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.705	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.663	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.022
predicted_H	0.759	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.663	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.004
predicted_H	0.730	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.023
predicted_R	0.458	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.279	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.748	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.462)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.60	44	-	162.000	41.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	21.000	18.000	31.000	0.2531	0.3278	0.3827	0.2531	0.0370	0.1296	0.1111	0.1914

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.2286
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2979
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.3216
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0680	0.0770	0.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.6360	3.6632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2286	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3540	0.3865	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8310	0.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2979	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.5070	0.4892	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3240	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7050	0.7940	0.7413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 35

All-history rows before 20260518: 35

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.371	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.371	3.000	0.629	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.254	1.000	0.246	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	3.000	1.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	2.000	0.800	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	1.000	0.162	-0.500
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	2.000	0.543	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	4.000	1.514	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.718	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.508	3.333	0.742	-2.083
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.371	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.718	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.342	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	0.089
predicted_H	1.073	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.352	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.518	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.757	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.718	0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.342	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.485	-0.004
predicted_H	1.031	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.335	-0.017
predicted_OBP	0.396	-0.031
predicted_R	0.485	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.708	-0.049
predicted_SLG	0.681	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.739	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.099

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	0.6000	0.7143	1.4667	0.6000	0.2667	0.5333	0.4000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	0.3929	0.5405	0.9643	0.3929	0.1786	0.3214	0.3214	0.1786
season	0.60	35	-	118.000	30.000	9.000	7.000	17.000	16.000	14.000	27.000	0.2542	0.3383	0.5085	0.2542	0.0593	0.1441	0.1186	0.2288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2970
predicted_AVG	0.3314
predicted_BB	0.6250
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.3550
predicted_OBP	0.4266
predicted_R	0.6120
predicted_RBI	0.7680
predicted_SLG	0.7184
predicted_SO	0.6730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2070	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3710	3.2970	3.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3314	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.6250	0.4891	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0930	1.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3550	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4266	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6120	0.5184	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7680	0.7571	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7180	0.7184	0.7182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.6730	0.7322	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	10
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.614	5.000	0.386	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.200	0.068	0.050
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.659	1.000	0.341	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.200	-0.027	0.050
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.400	-0.077	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.614	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.651	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.165	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	-0.053
predicted_H	0.574	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.651	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.004
predicted_H	0.552	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.006
predicted_R	0.489	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.022
predicted_SO	0.878	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1463	0.2105	0.1053	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.60	44	-	159.000	29.000	5.000	6.000	20.000	24.000	22.000	40.000	0.1824	0.2772	0.3270	0.1824	0.0377	0.1258	0.1384	0.2516

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1350
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.1645
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.6090
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.2367
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.2875
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1350	0.1226	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6140	3.7040	3.6508	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1645	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3700	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6090	0.5741	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1060	0.1025	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2367	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.4900	0.5225	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3380	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2875	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8150	0.8706	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Rodolfo Durán (660710) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

System season_avg: 0.0830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0833

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.083	0.250	0.250	0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.083	0.250	0.250	0.083
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	1.000	0.000	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.527	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.000
predicted_R	0.290	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.979	-0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.045	-0.000
predicted_H	0.507	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.173	-0.069
predicted_R	0.272	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.344	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.093
predicted_SO	0.988	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	4	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.60	4	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.2418
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.4870
predicted_SLG	0.3776
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1220	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5720	3.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1900	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.7080	0.5274	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1670	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2418	0.2420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4170	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4870	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3776	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9130	0.9790	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.083

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660710
playerID	660710
playerName	Rodolfo Durán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	1.000	-0.209	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.953	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.953	4.000	-0.953	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.250	-0.206	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.349	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.349	0.000	0.651	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.814	1.000	-0.814	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.250	-0.024	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.535	1.000	-0.535	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	1.000	-0.442	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.500	-0.329	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.140	0.000	-0.140	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.953	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.349	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.535	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	1.140	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.951	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.016
predicted_H	0.594	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.479	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.313	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.951	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.003
predicted_H	0.571	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.054	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.210	-0.018
predicted_R	0.448	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.293	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.238	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.197	0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.953

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	0.1053	0.2093	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0263	0.1316	0.3684
season	0.60	43	-	170.000	35.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	23.000	15.000	49.000	0.2059	0.2742	0.3294	0.2059	0.0235	0.1118	0.0882	0.2882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9480
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2283
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.2687
predicted_SO	1.2530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.2020	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9530	3.9480	3.9510	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3490	0.3100	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6580	0.5942	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0660	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2283	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5350	0.3980	0.4789	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3460	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2687	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1400	1.2530	1.1863	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 39

All-history rows before 20260518: 39

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	3.000	-1.769	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.436	1.000	0.564	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.055	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	1.000	0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.308	2.000	-0.308	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.436	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	1.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.006
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.713	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.002
predicted_H	0.705	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.304	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.713	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.004
predicted_H	0.677	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.084	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.035
predicted_R	0.445	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.274	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.045
predicted_SO	1.315	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.1613	0.2973	0.2903	0.1613	0.0323	0.0323	0.1935	0.4194
season	0.60	39	-	147.000	33.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	17.000	51.000	0.2245	0.3054	0.3878	0.2245	0.0340	0.1293	0.1157	0.3469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0270
predicted_AB	3.6320
predicted_AVG	0.2164
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.4590
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.3538
predicted_SO	1.2970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1430	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0270	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.6320	3.7135	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2164	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4360	0.4420	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7860	0.7051	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1000	0.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4590	0.4756	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3270	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3080	1.2970	1.3035	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.522	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.522	3.000	0.478	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.333	0.040	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	1.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.333	0.006	-0.083
predicted_R	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	1.000	0.739	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.696	3.000	0.304	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	1.333	-0.096	-1.083
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.522	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.174	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.541	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.004
predicted_H	0.727	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.639	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.541	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.002
predicted_H	0.698	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.029
predicted_R	0.285	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.598	-0.041
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.046
predicted_SO	1.030	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2778	0.0000	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2727	0.2857	0.5152	0.2727	0.0606	0.2727	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.60	23	-	81.000	17.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	6.000	4.000	23.000	0.2099	0.2442	0.3457	0.2099	0.0247	0.1975	0.0494	0.2839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5730
predicted_AVG	0.2299
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.2629
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.7200
predicted_SLG	0.3983
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.2040	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5220	3.5730	3.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1740	0.1630	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8210	0.7265	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1300	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2629	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3770	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.7200	0.6387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3983	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0550	1.0206	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Michael King (650633) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.444	2.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.667	1.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	3.778	6.000	2.222	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	5.200	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.556	5.000	0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.200	8.000	18.000	12.000	30.000	3.000	2.5116	1.0465	0.2791	0.6279	0.4186	1.0465	0.1047
last_10	0.35	9	51.100	15.000	34.000	22.000	50.000	4.000	2.6299	1.0909	0.2922	0.6623	0.4286	0.9740	0.0779
season	0.20	9	51.100	15.000	34.000	22.000	50.000	4.000	2.6299	1.0909	0.2922	0.6623	0.4286	0.9740	0.0779

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3040
predicted_ER	1.9810
predicted_ERA	3.1457
predicted_H	4.2350
predicted_HR	0.6070
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.6350
predicted_WHIP	1.1539

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.3040	3.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9810	2.4914	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1457	3.1457	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.2350	5.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6070	0.8038	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6350	4.8161	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1539	1.1539	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	6
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	11
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650633
playerID	650633
playerName	Michael King
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.100	0.000	0.900	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	1.000	0.025	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	3.9706	0.9706	0.4412	0.6177	0.3529	1.4118	0.1765
season	0.20	20	23.000	13.000	22.000	6.000	28.000	2.000	5.0870	1.2174	0.5652	0.9565	0.2609	1.2174	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.7340
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1500
predicted_WHIP	1.0956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4150	0.7490	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7340	3.7340	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7710	1.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1500	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0956	1.0956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.438	1.000	1.562	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.6429	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	0.9000	0.8000	0.1000	0.5000	0.3000	0.5000	0.1000
season	0.20	16	14.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.2273	0.8864	0.1364	0.6136	0.2727	0.4773	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.3180
predicted_ERA	2.8652
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7710
predicted_WHIP	1.1779

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3180	0.1217	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8652	2.8652	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8090	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7710	1.5295	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1779	1.1779	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.23
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.100	-0.015	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.200	4.000	-1.200	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.0000	1.2353	0.0000	0.7059	0.5294	2.6471
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	19.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.7812
season	0.20	20	21.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	44.000	0.8571	0.7619	0.0952	0.4762	0.2857	2.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.6408
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5340
predicted_WHIP	1.2191

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4000	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6408	2.6408	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8190	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.5340	2.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2191	1.2191	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	-0.808	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	0.000	-1.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.5882	0.8824	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529	0.8823	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	0.9091	0.0909	0.5454	0.3636	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	8.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.2927	1.0976	0.3659	0.5854	0.5122	1.1707	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2170
predicted_ER	0.2090
predicted_ERA	3.3106
predicted_H	0.4540
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5390
predicted_WHIP	1.1824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2170	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2090	0.0786	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3106	3.3106	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4540	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5390	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1824	1.1824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	1
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SD@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260518_MIL@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.571191, "home_win_probability": 0.428809, "away_win_probability": 0.571191, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "confidence": 0.571191, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 3 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 2 CHC", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIL 4 - 3 CHC	MIL	0.571	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIL 4 - 2 CHC	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIL	8-2	0.800	4.30	2.40	19	1L	average	strong
Home CHC	4-6	0.400	4.10	4.40	-3	2L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away MIL	26-18	0.591	61	1.386	True
Home CHC	29-18	0.617	42	0.894	True
Signal	-	-	-0.493	-0.454	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CHC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIL	34	9	5	0	3	2	8
Player finalized CHC	34	8	5	0	2	4	9
Player model fractional MIL	33.90	8.35	5.03	0.77	4.06	3.71	7.09
Player model fractional CHC	33.46	7.34	5.00	0.91	3.80	5.02	8.02
Simulation box MIL	34	7	4	2	4	1	8
Simulation box CHC	35	8	2	2	2	6	12

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIL	Starter	Brandon Sproat	4.20	2	5	6	5	4.36	1.31	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.68	1.23	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1	0	2	0	0	4.91	1.33	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	2	1	1	3.71	1.18	True
Away MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	1	0	1	1	0	3.14	1.24	True
Home CHC	Starter	Shota Imanaga	6.10	2	6	5	0	2.96	1.08	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1	0	1	0	0	4.00	1.33	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	2	0	2	0	5.81	1.40	True
Home CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	0.20	0	1	0	1	3.20	1.19	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIL

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2876

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	-0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.780	1.000	-0.780	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.073	0.000	-0.073	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.200	-0.159	0.050
predicted_R	0.878	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.878	1.000	-0.878	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.484	0.000	-0.234	0.250
predicted_SO	0.951	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	1.000	-0.951	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.780	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.878	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.731	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.720	-0.060
predicted_H	0.922	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.000
predicted_R	0.860	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.548	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	-0.005

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.000
predicted_3B	0.020	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.002
predicted_BB	0.726	0.006
predicted_H	0.948	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.017
predicted_R	0.902	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.575	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.011
predicted_SO	0.938	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.2368	0.3256	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316	0.1316	0.2368
season	0.60	41	-	153.000	44.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	27.000	36.000	32.000	39.000	0.2876	0.4086	0.4837	0.2876	0.0392	0.1765	0.2092	0.2549

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.2520
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.3588
predicted_R	0.8340
predicted_RBI	0.5600
predicted_SLG	0.4065
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2200	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0140	0.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.7300	3.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2520	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7800	0.6330	0.7198	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9400	0.9223	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1090	0.1096	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3588	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8780	0.8340	0.8600	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5600	0.5482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4065	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	0.9380	0.9457	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 34

All-history rows before 20260518: 34

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2891

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	1.000	-0.265	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	-0.289	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	2.000	-1.088	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.600	-0.368	-0.600
predicted_R	0.706	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.750	-0.500	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.912	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	0.000	2.088	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.542	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.752	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.000
predicted_BB	0.470	-0.001
predicted_H	1.054	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.542	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	0.028

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.752	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.474	0.004
predicted_H	1.084	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.144	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.368	-0.021
predicted_R	0.710	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.487	-0.055
predicted_SO	0.932	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.7895	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	11.000	0.3429	0.4524	0.5714	0.3429	0.0286	0.1143	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.60	34	-	128.000	37.000	9.000	6.000	22.000	24.000	16.000	31.000	0.2891	0.3681	0.5000	0.2891	0.0469	0.1719	0.1250	0.2422

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7330
predicted_AVG	0.3121
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3891
predicted_R	0.6340
predicted_RBI	0.5670
predicted_SLG	0.5417
predicted_SO	0.9830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.3790	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.7330	3.7522	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3121	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4680	0.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1650	1.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1580	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3891	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.6340	0.6772	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5670	0.5148	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5420	0.5417	0.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	0.9830	0.9404	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-LF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3061

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.490	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.455	5.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.200	-0.056	0.050
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.364	1.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.200	-0.096	0.050
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	1.636	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	0.200	0.531	0.800
predicted_SO	1.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.364	0.000	-0.364	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.455	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.490	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.364	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.409	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.404	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.004
predicted_H	1.187	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.119	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.412	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.327	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.409	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	4.404	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.007
predicted_BB	0.271	0.002
predicted_H	1.221	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.004
predicted_R	0.408	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.022
predicted_SO	1.315	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 4.490

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.2609	0.2917	0.4783	0.2609	0.0435	0.0435	0.0435	0.4348
last_10	0.20	10	-	45.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	15.000	0.2444	0.2766	0.3778	0.2444	0.0222	0.0889	0.0444	0.3333
season	0.60	11	-	49.000	15.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	15.000	0.3061	0.3462	0.4694	0.3061	0.0204	0.0816	0.0612	0.3061

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3210
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2400
predicted_AVG	0.2698
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3154
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4318
predicted_SO	1.2550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4550	0.3210	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4900	4.2400	4.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2698	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2610	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.1440	1.1874	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1180	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3154	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4380	0.3894	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3960	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4318	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3640	1.2550	1.3266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2155

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.742	4.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	-0.806	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.452	2.000	0.548	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.742	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	0.452	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.024
predicted_H	0.836	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.487	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.301	0.003
predicted_H	0.859	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.014
predicted_R	0.369	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.004
predicted_SO	0.483	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.2432	0.2432	0.1081	0.0811	0.1081
season	0.60	31	-	116.000	25.000	8.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	14.000	0.2155	0.2812	0.2845	0.2155	0.1207	0.0862	0.1207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7880
predicted_AVG	0.2472
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2999
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.4700
predicted_SLG	0.3095
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.1610	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7420	3.7880	3.7601	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2472	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.2620	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9360	0.8355	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2999	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.3480	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4700	0.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3095	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4520	0.5420	0.4875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Christian Yelich (592885) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	5.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.200	0.224	0.300
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	1.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	0.167	0.300
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.800	0.353	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.133	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.002
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.834	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.004
predicted_H	0.838	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.088	-0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.834	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.332	0.003
predicted_H	0.862	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.105	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.008
predicted_R	0.649	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.005
predicted_SO	1.079	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.4211	0.2368	0.0263	0.0790	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.60	15	-	58.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	5.000	17.000	0.2759	0.3333	0.3966	0.2759	0.0172	0.1207	0.0862	0.2931

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.2309
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2950
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.3777
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1380	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0440	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.7730	3.8336	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2309	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3230	0.3294	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8710	0.8381	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2950	0.2950	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5320	0.6190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4070	0.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3777	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.0070	1.0882	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	592885
playerID	592885
playerName	Christian Yelich
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2190

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.079	1.000	-0.079	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	5.000	0.395	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.400	-0.219	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.400	-0.297	-0.400
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.600	-0.307	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.763	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	-0.042
predicted_H	0.796	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.601	0.060

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.311	0.003
predicted_H	0.818	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.056	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.016
predicted_R	0.479	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.596	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2750	0.2927	0.3000	0.2750	0.0000	0.1000	0.0250	0.1750
season	0.60	37	-	137.000	30.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	0.2190	0.2914	0.3066	0.2190	0.0219	0.0803	0.0949	0.1460

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8520
predicted_AVG	0.2436
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	0.9380
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2929
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.3290
predicted_SLG	0.3247
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.1190	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.8520	3.7628	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2436	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.2460	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9380	0.7956	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2929	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.4140	0.4571	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3290	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3247	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5410	0.6900	0.6008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	5.000	-0.024	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.400	-0.035	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	2.000	-0.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.400	-0.110	-0.150
predicted_R	0.561	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	0.000	0.439	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.400	0.612	0.600
predicted_SO	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.537	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.987	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.451	-0.012
predicted_H	0.999	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	0.572	0.035

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.987	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	0.004
predicted_H	1.027	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.035	0.000
predicted_HR	0.053	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.537	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.005
predicted_SO	0.567	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2432	0.3409	0.2703	0.2432	0.0000	0.1081	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.60	41	-	165.000	47.000	8.000	3.000	27.000	23.000	19.000	22.000	0.2848	0.3602	0.3879	0.2848	0.0182	0.1636	0.1152	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2574
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3342
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.3363
predicted_SO	0.6230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1430	0.1737	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	3.9330	3.9867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2574	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.4340	0.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0120	0.9990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.4430	0.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5080	0.5033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3363	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5370	0.6230	0.5722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2903

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.333	0.043	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.405	0.500	0.095	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.333	0.215	0.333
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.471	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.004
predicted_H	0.863	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.531	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.516	0.072

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.444	0.004
predicted_H	0.887	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.137	0.000
predicted_HR	0.074	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.034
predicted_R	0.557	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.383	-0.020
predicted_SO	0.511	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	9	-	31.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.2903	0.4054	0.4516	0.2903	0.0323	0.1935	0.1290	0.1290
season	0.60	9	-	31.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.2903	0.4054	0.4516	0.2903	0.0323	0.1935	0.1290	0.1290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5290
predicted_AVG	0.2764
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3742
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.4029
predicted_SO	0.6690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1990	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5290	3.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2764	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4320	0.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9750	0.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4790	0.5314	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4990	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4029	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.6690	0.5158	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2065

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	1.000	-0.069	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.172	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.172	1.000	-0.172	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	1.000	0.127	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	3.000	-0.379	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.655	1.000	0.345	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	1.000	0.048	-0.667
predicted_R	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	2.000	0.072	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.172	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.199	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.010
predicted_H	0.630	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.199	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.392	0.003
predicted_H	0.648	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.013
predicted_R	0.419	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.044
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.2667	0.3684	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2069	0.2857	0.3793	0.2069	0.0345	0.1724	0.1379	0.1724
season	0.60	29	-	92.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	0.2065	0.2857	0.2609	0.2065	0.0109	0.1196	0.1196	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2430
predicted_AVG	0.2243
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3029
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3516
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1360	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1720	3.2430	3.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2243	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.4050	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7270	0.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0910	0.0781	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3029	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.3760	0.3994	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4250	0.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3516	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.6450	0.6727	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Sproat (687075) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	2.500	2.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	3.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.375	6.000	1.625	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.237	5.100	-0.037	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.500	6.000	0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	11.000	21.000	10.000	26.000	4.000	3.8571	1.2078	0.4286	0.8182	0.3896	1.0130	0.1558
last_10	0.35	8	36.000	23.000	35.000	20.000	36.000	8.000	5.7500	1.5278	0.6389	0.9722	0.5556	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	8	36.000	23.000	35.000	20.000	36.000	8.000	5.7500	1.5278	0.6389	0.9722	0.5556	1.0000	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0610
predicted_ER	2.3920
predicted_ERA	4.3617
predicted_H	4.4150
predicted_HR	0.7840
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8680
predicted_WHIP	1.3123

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	2.0610	3.5672	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3920	2.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3617	4.3617	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.4150	5.2273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.7840	1.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.8680	4.9356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3123	1.3123	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	5
SO	5
HR	2
BF	25
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.75
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687075
playerID	687075
playerName	Brandon Sproat
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	-1.095	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.248	2.000	-0.148	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	2.095	1.000	-0.095	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	22.000	0.000	1.2000	1.2667	0.1333	0.6667	0.6000	1.4667	0.0000
season	0.20	21	29.000	7.000	23.000	15.000	44.000	1.000	2.1724	1.3103	0.2414	0.7931	0.5172	1.5172	0.0345

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_ER	0.4220
predicted_ERA	2.6838
predicted_H	1.1690
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6680
predicted_WHIP	1.2304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5710	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4220	0.1914	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6838	2.6838	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1690	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6680	1.8494	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2304	1.2304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.826	1.000	0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	1.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	5.0000	1.1111	0.5556	0.6667	0.4444	1.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	4.6731	1.2115	0.5192	0.8077	0.4038	1.0385	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	4.9059
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.3307

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4670	0.1866	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5450	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9059	4.9059	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8640	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1550	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9370	1.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3307	1.3307	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.3000
season	0.20	16	16.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.4120
predicted_ERA	3.7084
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1000
predicted_WHIP	1.1763

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3230	0.7349	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4120	0.1613	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7084	3.7084	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8540	0.9428	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0800	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1000	1.6476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1763	1.1763	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.842	1.000	-0.842	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.100	0.037	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.263	2.000	-0.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	13.000	0.000	2.2500	1.1667	0.2500	0.3333	0.8333	1.0833	0.0000
season	0.20	19	21.100	4.000	10.000	16.000	24.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2188	0.1875	0.4688	0.7500	1.1250	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_ER	0.3050
predicted_ERA	3.1417
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8600
predicted_WHIP	1.2441

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5240	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3050	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1417	3.1417	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5620	0.8155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0650	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8600	0.9410	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2441	1.2441	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_MIL@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: CHC

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2275

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.250	0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.689	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.689	2.000	0.311	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	1.000	-0.089	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.049	-0.100
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	2.000	-0.556	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	1.000	-0.115	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.689	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.700	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.714	0.025
predicted_H	0.822	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.000
predicted_R	0.454	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.555	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	1.013	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.717	0.003
predicted_H	0.810	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.111	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.014
predicted_R	0.443	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.541	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.009
predicted_SO	1.009	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2105	0.3750	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.2632	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.3824	0.2353	0.0294	0.1765	0.2941	0.2647
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	38.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	25.000	20.000	31.000	45.000	0.2275	0.3515	0.3653	0.2275	0.0239	0.1497	0.1856	0.2695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2280
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.3596
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.5620
predicted_SLG	0.3819
predicted_SO	1.0320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1980	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.6840	3.6999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6890	0.7500	0.7141	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8400	0.8224	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1140	0.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3596	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4690	0.4543	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5620	0.5549	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3819	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0320	1.0132	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

System season_avg: 0.3490

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3488

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.867	4.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.349	0.500	-0.349	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.482	0.600	-0.232	-0.350
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	3.000	-0.600	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.560	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.628	1.250	-0.628	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.429	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.560	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.418	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.199	0.128
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.729	-0.057
predicted_H	0.853	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.695	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.560	0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.418	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.199	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.047
predicted_BB	0.731	0.003
predicted_H	0.840	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.010	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.400	-0.013
predicted_R	0.677	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.439	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.510	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	7.000	0.3529	0.4634	0.7059	0.3529	0.0588	0.2059	0.2059	0.2059
season	0.60	14	-	43.000	15.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	10.000	11.000	10.000	0.3488	0.4815	0.6279	0.3488	0.0465	0.1860	0.2558	0.2326

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3960
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4420
predicted_AVG	0.3099
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.4127
predicted_R	0.6580
predicted_RBI	0.5650
predicted_SLG	0.5599
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4290	0.3960	0.4176	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.4420	3.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3099	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.6200	0.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	1.0670	0.8530	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1520	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4127	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.6580	0.6946	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5650	0.4505	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5600	0.5599	0.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7740	0.7347	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.349

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2897

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	1.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	3.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.333	-0.290	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.448	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.069	1.000	-1.069	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	-0.122	-0.250
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.667	-0.374	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.448	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.656	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.423	-0.025
predicted_H	0.930	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.452	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.670	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.033
predicted_BB	0.425	0.002
predicted_H	0.916	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.028
predicted_R	0.441	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.498	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.338	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.3429	0.2857	0.0000	0.2000	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.60	29	-	107.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	13.000	20.000	0.2897	0.3719	0.3738	0.2897	0.0094	0.1215	0.1215	0.1869

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2836
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3566
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.5590
predicted_SLG	0.3833
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.2360	0.2184	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.6030	3.6559	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2836	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4480	0.3850	0.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0220	0.9296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3566	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.4050	0.4524	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5590	0.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3833	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.6390	0.6700	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.210	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.133	4.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.250	-0.258	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	2.000	0.556	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.500	-0.138	-0.300
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	0.000	-0.644	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.250	-0.382	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.356	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.356	0.000	1.644	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.210	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.356	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.186	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.006
predicted_H	0.947	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.477	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.362	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.186	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.452	0.002
predicted_H	0.933	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.011
predicted_R	0.441	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.465	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.001
predicted_SO	0.361	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.210

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.1818	0.2800	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2553	0.2143	0.1667	0.0000	0.0476	0.1191	0.0476
season	0.60	45	-	186.000	48.000	11.000	4.000	29.000	21.000	20.000	16.000	0.2581	0.3380	0.3817	0.2581	0.0215	0.1559	0.1075	0.0860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1510
predicted_AVG	0.2270
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3093
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3190
predicted_SO	0.3710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1880	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2100	4.1510	4.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2270	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4590	0.4502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9420	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3093	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4310	0.4521	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4720	0.4767	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3190	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3560	0.3710	0.3622	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2605

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	6.000	1.161	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.167	0.139	0.233
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.167	0.036	0.233
predicted_R	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.710	1.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.167	-0.071	0.233
predicted_SO	1.161	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	2.000	0.839	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.710	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.877	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.539	-0.042
predicted_H	0.771	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.681	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.541	0.002
predicted_H	0.760	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.139	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.012
predicted_R	0.664	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.402	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.039
predicted_SO	1.195	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.1364	0.1739	0.1818	0.1364	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.4091
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	15.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.2821	0.1538	0.0256	0.1026	0.1538	0.3846
season	0.60	31	-	119.000	31.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	22.000	18.000	36.000	0.2605	0.3643	0.4706	0.2605	0.0588	0.1429	0.1513	0.3025

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9350
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3064
predicted_R	0.6370
predicted_RBI	0.4600
predicted_SLG	0.3787
predicted_SO	1.2580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1610	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.9350	3.8772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.4750	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8640	0.7713	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1530	0.1392	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7100	0.6370	0.6809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4600	0.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3787	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.2580	1.1996	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2275

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	5.000	1.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.028	0.200
predicted_BB	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.167	-0.168	0.033
predicted_R	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.000	0.345	0.800
predicted_SO	1.422	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.422	2.000	-0.422	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	1.422	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.685	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.779	0.001
predicted_H	0.752	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.745	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.428	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.018	0.000
predicted_AB	3.685	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.782	0.003
predicted_H	0.741	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.015
predicted_R	0.726	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.013
predicted_SO	1.423	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778	0.4444
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	17.000	0.1471	0.3256	0.2353	0.1471	0.0294	0.0882	0.2647	0.5000
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	20.000	35.000	35.000	64.000	0.2275	0.3676	0.4551	0.2275	0.0599	0.1198	0.2096	0.3832

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6490
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.7800
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3564
predicted_R	0.6970
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3976
predicted_SO	1.4370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0910	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0130	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.6490	3.6854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.7800	0.7788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7830	0.7519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1830	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3564	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.6970	0.7446	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4140	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3976	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4220	1.4370	1.4282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.068	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.068	0.000	-0.068	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.409	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.409	3.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.667	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.333	0.480	0.333
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	1.364	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.500	0.452	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	2.000	0.341	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.523	0.000	0.477	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	1.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.333	1.327	1.333
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.409	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.025
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.431	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.504	-0.041
predicted_H	0.533	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000
predicted_R	0.628	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	0.883	0.019

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.431	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.023
predicted_BB	0.506	0.002
predicted_H	0.525	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.008
predicted_R	0.612	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.302	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.258	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.880	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1471	0.2162	0.2059	0.1471	0.0000	0.0294	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.60	44	-	150.000	28.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	29.000	24.000	38.000	0.1867	0.2978	0.3400	0.1867	0.0400	0.1533	0.1600	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1290
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.4620
predicted_AVG	0.1764
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.2700
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.2970
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0680	0.1290	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4090	3.4620	3.4306	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1764	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4440	0.5038	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6110	0.5334	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2700	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5820	0.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3520	0.3094	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	0.9110	0.8832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2367

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	3.000	0.326	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.013	0.250
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	0.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.400	-0.067	-0.150
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	-0.129	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.635	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	0.032
predicted_H	0.697	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.169	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.955	-0.045

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.000
predicted_3B	0.035	0.000
predicted_AB	3.635	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.029
predicted_BB	0.359	0.001
predicted_H	0.687	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.169	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.063
predicted_R	0.476	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.423	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.952	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.1818	0.3250	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1515	0.1515	0.2121
season	0.60	46	-	169.000	40.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	20.000	25.000	15.000	46.000	0.2367	0.3175	0.3787	0.2367	0.0296	0.1183	0.0888	0.2722

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0240
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.2178
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.1690
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_OBP	0.3251
predicted_R	0.4110
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.3635
predicted_SO	0.8910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.0970	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0240	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.5790	3.6351	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2178	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.4040	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7800	0.6974	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1690	0.1690	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1260	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3251	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.4110	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4830	0.4340	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3635	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8910	0.9553	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	2
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2514

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	4.067	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.067	5.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.251	0.400	-0.001	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.533	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	1.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	2.000	-0.022	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.089	0.000	-0.089	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	0.060	-0.100
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	2.000	-0.467	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.400	0.139	0.100
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	4.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	4.087	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	-0.032
predicted_H	1.147	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	4.087	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.503	0.002
predicted_H	1.130	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.005
predicted_R	0.522	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.339	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.804	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 4.067

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.4091	0.4583	0.4545	0.4091	0.0000	0.0909	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.20	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	0.3095	0.3696	0.4048	0.3095	0.0238	0.0714	0.0952	0.2619
season	0.60	45	-	183.000	46.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	21.000	24.000	35.000	0.2514	0.3397	0.3607	0.2514	0.0219	0.0820	0.1311	0.1913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.1150
predicted_AVG	0.2882
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3613
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.3892
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1450	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0670	4.1150	4.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2882	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.4550	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1860	1.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3613	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.6320	0.5352	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3580	0.3474	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3892	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8480	0.8069	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.251

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Shota Imanaga (684007) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.556	2.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.000	5.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	6.100	6.100	6.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.011	7.000	0.089	-0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.556	6.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 6.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.100	8.000	24.000	8.000	28.000	3.000	2.2268	0.9897	0.2474	0.7423	0.2474	0.8660	0.0928
last_10	0.35	9	54.100	14.000	36.000	13.000	59.000	5.000	2.3190	0.9018	0.2577	0.6626	0.2393	1.0859	0.0920
season	0.20	9	54.100	14.000	36.000	13.000	59.000	5.000	2.3190	0.9018	0.2577	0.6626	0.2393	1.0859	0.0920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8260
predicted_ER	2.0530
predicted_ERA	2.9561
predicted_H	4.9550
predicted_HR	0.6620
predicted_IP	6.1000
predicted_SO	5.9410
predicted_WHIP	1.0848

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8260	0.9114	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0530	2.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9561	2.9561	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.9550	4.9775	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6620	0.8313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.1000	6.1000	6.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.9410	5.9706	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0848	1.0848	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	6
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	684007
playerID	684007
playerName	Shota Imanaga
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 10

All-history rows before 20260518: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.8889	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_ER	0.4220
predicted_ERA	3.9953
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9160
predicted_WHIP	1.3329

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3370	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4220	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9953	3.9953	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9310	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1390	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9160	0.9716	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3329	1.3329	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 14

All-history rows before 20260518: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.929	3.000	1.071	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.143	2.000	0.857	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.714	0.200	0.286	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.0000	1.4000	1.0000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	9.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	9.0000	1.6667	1.0000	1.4444	0.2222	1.3333	0.2222
season	0.20	14	12.100	13.000	16.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	9.4865	1.7838	1.0540	1.2973	0.4865	1.2973	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.6460
predicted_ERA	5.8120
predicted_H	1.0590
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0540
predicted_WHIP	1.3999

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3410	0.1249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6460	1.5041	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8120	5.8120	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0590	1.6554	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1880	0.7026	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0540	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3999	1.3999	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	9.49
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.855	1.100	-0.655	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	3.000	-0.150	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.5000	0.8333	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.6875	1.0312	0.1875	0.7500	0.2812	1.2188	0.0938
season	0.20	20	19.200	7.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.2034	1.4237	0.3559	1.0170	0.4068	1.1695	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_ER	0.3120
predicted_ERA	3.1980
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9250
predicted_WHIP	1.1869

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2850	0.7050	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3120	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1980	3.1980	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7580	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9250	0.9691	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1869	1.1869	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_CHC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260518_NYM@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 WAS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 5 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYM 5 - 6 WAS	WAS	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYM 4 - 5 WAS	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYM	6-4	0.600	4.40	3.60	8	2W	average	average
Home WAS	6-4	0.600	5.70	5.80	-1	1L	hot	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away NYM	20-26	0.435	-16	-0.348	True
Home WAS	23-24	0.489	-13	-0.277	True
Signal	-	-	0.071	0.153	applied=False

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-30	WAS @ NYM	5 - 4	WAS	1	close
2026-04-29	WAS @ NYM	14 - 2	WAS	12	blowout
2026-04-28	WAS @ NYM	0 - 8	NYM	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYM	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target WAS	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYM	33	9	3	0	2	2	9
Player finalized WAS	34	9	5	0	5	1	9
Player model fractional NYM	31.76	6.99	3.94	0.86	3.46	3.23	7.20
Player model fractional WAS	32.87	7.72	5.12	1.19	4.15	2.98	7.98
Simulation box NYM	38	11	4	0	4	0	11
Simulation box WAS	33	9	5	1	5	5	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYM	Starter	Christian Scott	4.10	3	5	3	5	3.87	1.36	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1.20	0	1	1	0	2.56	1.27	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1.10	2	1	4	0	2.99	1.07	True
Away NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	0.20	0	1	1	0	2.93	1.26	True
Home WAS	Starter	Jake Irvin	4.10	4	5	8	0	5.22	1.40	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1.10	0	2	1	0	2.96	1.21	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1.20	0	1	0	0	5.18	1.49	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	0.20	0	2	0	0	2.90	1.51	True
Home WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1	0	1	2	0	3.56	1.54	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYM

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	1.000	1.167	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.294	1.000	-0.044	-0.750
predicted_BB	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.167	3.000	-1.167	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.500	1.000	-0.250	-0.750
predicted_R	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.588	1.000	-0.088	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.167	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	1.167	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.125	-0.042
predicted_AB	3.006	0.172
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	-0.167
predicted_H	0.680	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.759	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	0.027

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.125	0.000
predicted_AB	3.006	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.992	-0.008
predicted_H	0.678	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.124	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.056
predicted_R	0.753	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.281	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.006
predicted_SO	0.866	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	6	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.2941	0.5000	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.4118	0.2941
season	0.60	6	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.2941	0.5000	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.4118	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0220
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.2561
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_OBP	0.3625
predicted_R	0.5760
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.4361
predicted_SO	0.9260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0910	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1670	0.0220	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.4330	3.0055	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2561	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.1670	0.5850	0.9997	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.8790	0.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1610	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3625	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.5760	0.7591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3670	0.2836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4361	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9260	0.8597	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 30

All-history rows before 20260518: 30

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	5.000	1.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.200	0.126	0.200
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.033	1.000	0.967	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.200	0.029	0.200
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.200	-0.087	0.200
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.034	0.001
predicted_AB	3.754	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	-0.029
predicted_H	0.996	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.214	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.495	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.718	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.754	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.004
predicted_H	0.992	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.213	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.001
predicted_R	0.561	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.464	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.484	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.723	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.1081	0.1351	0.1892
season	0.60	30	-	113.000	31.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	14.000	16.000	18.000	21.000	0.2743	0.3712	0.4867	0.2743	0.0531	0.1239	0.1593	0.1858

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.7350
predicted_AVG	0.2732
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2200
predicted_OBP	0.3621
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4947
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0980	0.1191	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0350	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.7350	3.7543	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5260	0.5707	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0210	0.9962	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2200	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3621	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.6160	0.5659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4790	0.4675	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4947	0.4949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.7450	0.7178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	5.000	1.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.200	-0.046	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.333	-0.107	-0.133
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.200	-0.155	0.000
predicted_SO	0.763	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	1.000	2.237	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.781	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.027
predicted_H	1.088	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.063	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.558	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.386	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.781	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.002
predicted_H	1.084	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.063	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.004
predicted_R	0.554	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.408	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.764	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.4348	0.3913	0.0000	0.0870	0.0000	0.1304
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	7.000	0.3488	0.3778	0.4186	0.3488	0.0000	0.1395	0.0233	0.1628
season	0.60	38	-	138.000	34.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	20.000	11.000	29.000	0.2464	0.3067	0.3551	0.2464	0.0217	0.1014	0.0797	0.2101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9330
predicted_AVG	0.2872
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	1.1290
predicted_HBP	0.0630
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3366
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.3857
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1910	0.1712	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.9330	3.7815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2872	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2210	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1290	1.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0630	0.0630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3366	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.6060	0.5581	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4290	0.4116	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3857	0.3859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.7520	0.7586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2289

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.609	5.000	0.391	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.400	0.021	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.283	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.826	2.000	0.174	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.400	-0.037	-0.150
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	2.000	-0.370	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.326	1.000	-0.326	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.600	-0.075	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.783	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.609	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.283	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.783	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.633	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.023
predicted_H	0.773	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.002
predicted_H	0.770	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.030
predicted_R	0.419	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.301	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.796	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	46	-	166.000	38.000	7.000	3.000	15.000	17.000	13.000	36.000	0.2289	0.2873	0.3253	0.2289	0.0181	0.0904	0.0783	0.2169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2358
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3028
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.3621
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1550	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6090	3.6670	3.6327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2358	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2830	0.3400	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8650	0.7733	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1010	0.0886	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.4980	0.4223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3370	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3621	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7830	0.7990	0.7895	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 35

All-history rows before 20260518: 35

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2344

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	5.000	-0.657	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.400	-0.234	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	2.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.400	-0.027	-0.150
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.400	-0.422	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.829	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	1.171	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.719	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	-0.019
predicted_H	0.852	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.067	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	0.785	-0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.180	-0.001
predicted_H	0.849	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.067	0.000
predicted_HR	0.158	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.017
predicted_R	0.445	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.635	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.021
predicted_SO	0.791	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.2439	0.2619	0.4390	0.2439	0.0488	0.1951	0.0000	0.1220
season	0.60	35	-	128.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	22.000	15.000	7.000	29.000	0.2344	0.2774	0.4219	0.2344	0.0469	0.1719	0.0547	0.2266

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.2402
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0670
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_OBP	0.2812
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.6860
predicted_SLG	0.4245
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1820	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.8120	3.7186	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2402	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1530	0.1813	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9160	0.8521	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0670	0.0670	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1720	0.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2812	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4780	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6860	0.6402	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4245	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.7180	0.7849	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.109	0.000	-0.109	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.043	5.000	0.957	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.200	0.190	0.200
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	1.152	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.200	0.138	0.200
predicted_R	0.413	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.413	0.000	0.587	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.223	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.200	0.131	0.200
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	0.000	0.261	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.413	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.223	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.003	-0.040
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	0.028
predicted_H	0.674	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.000
predicted_R	0.408	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.223	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	-0.029

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.003	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.003
predicted_H	0.672	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.014
predicted_R	0.405	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.329	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.222	-0.001
predicted_SO	0.715	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.043

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.0811	0.2093	0.0811	0.0811	0.0000	0.0541	0.1622	0.1081
season	0.60	46	-	186.000	39.000	5.000	2.000	18.000	19.000	14.000	34.000	0.2097	0.2624	0.2688	0.2097	0.0107	0.0968	0.0753	0.1828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9450
predicted_AVG	0.1726
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2446
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.2231
predicted_SO	0.6680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1090	0.0800	0.0970	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0430	3.9450	4.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1726	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3730	0.3324	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.6810	0.6745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2446	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4130	0.4010	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3340	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2230	0.2231	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.6680	0.7097	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.947	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.947	4.000	1.053	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.286	0.500
predicted_BB	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.632	0.000	1.368	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.000	0.259	0.500
predicted_R	0.053	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	1.000	1.684	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.000	0.196	0.500
predicted_SO	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	2.000	-0.579	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.947	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.053	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.077	0.130
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	0.014
predicted_H	0.560	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.099	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.118	-0.001
predicted_H	0.558	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.031
predicted_R	0.098	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.316	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.043
predicted_SO	0.641	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.2121
season	0.60	19	-	56.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	0.2143	0.2414	0.3036	0.2143	0.0179	0.1071	0.0357	0.1964

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3180
predicted_AVG	0.2084
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2431
predicted_R	0.1830
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.3195
predicted_SO	0.7410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1410	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9470	3.3180	3.0770	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2084	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.1440	0.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6910	0.5604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0730	0.0581	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2431	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0530	0.1830	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3890	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3195	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.7410	0.6357	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2441

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.528	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.528	4.000	0.472	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.256	0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	1.000	-0.306	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.861	1.000	1.139	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.400	0.193	0.100
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.388	0.500
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.528	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.006
predicted_3B	0.023	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.570	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	0.024
predicted_H	0.861	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.570	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.327	-0.003
predicted_H	0.857	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.087	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.031
predicted_R	0.431	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.455	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.108	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.4474	0.2895	0.0263	0.1316	0.1053	0.2895
season	0.60	36	-	127.000	31.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	11.000	40.000	0.2441	0.3071	0.3622	0.2441	0.0158	0.1260	0.0866	0.3150

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.2663
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3350
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.4139
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2100	0.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0160	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5280	3.6330	3.5698	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2663	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3660	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9670	0.8605	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3350	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4210	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5170	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4139	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0820	1.0994	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.125	4.000	0.875
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	-0.160
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.208	0.000	-0.208
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.220	0.000	-0.220
predicted_SO	0.750	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	3.000	2.250

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.216	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.025
predicted_H	0.529	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.149	-0.001
predicted_H	0.527	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.051	0.000
predicted_HR	0.033	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	-0.044
predicted_R	0.276	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.267	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.029
predicted_SO	0.797	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2353	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.1333	0.2121	0.2000	0.1333	0.1000	0.0667	0.3000
season	0.60	16	-	50.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.1600	0.2075	0.2200	0.1600	0.0800	0.0400	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3880
predicted_AVG	0.1891
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.6410
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2453
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.2828
predicted_SO	0.8690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1910	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1250	3.3880	3.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1891	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1970	0.1498	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6410	0.5289	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2453	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3310	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3250	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2828	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8690	0.7910	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Christian Scott (681035) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	2.000	2.750	3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.250	7.000	-0.250	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.625	4.200	0.475	-0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	5.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	15.200	6.000	13.000	9.000	20.000	1.000	3.4468	1.4043	0.3830	0.8298	0.5745	1.2766	0.0638
last_10	0.35	4	15.200	6.000	13.000	9.000	20.000	1.000	3.4468	1.4043	0.3830	0.8298	0.5745	1.2766	0.0638
season	0.20	4	15.200	6.000	13.000	9.000	20.000	1.000	3.4468	1.4043	0.3830	0.8298	0.5745	1.2766	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9480
predicted_ER	1.7990
predicted_ERA	3.8683
predicted_H	3.7260
predicted_HR	0.4210
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.5850
predicted_WHIP	1.3556

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.9480	3.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.7990	2.5013	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8683	3.8683	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.7260	3.3015	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4210	0.7596	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.5850	4.8277	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3556	1.3556	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	5
SO	5
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	681035
playerID	681035
playerName	Christian Scott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.632	2.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.795	0.200	0.405	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	1.000	-0.105	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	1.0000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	0.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0345	0.0000	0.7241	0.3103	1.2414	0.0000
season	0.20	19	17.200	2.000	12.000	6.000	21.000	1.000	1.0189	1.0189	0.1132	0.6793	0.3396	1.1887	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.2840
predicted_ERA	2.5568
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0210
predicted_WHIP	1.2669

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3690	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2840	0.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5568	2.5568	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8980	0.9590	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0210	1.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2669	1.2669	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	3.167	4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.294	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.0000	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.4286	0.2143	1.3929	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.200	6.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	1.000	3.4468	1.2128	0.3830	0.8936	0.3191	1.5319	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	2.9874
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1120
predicted_WHIP	1.0652

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1402	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3320	1.3505	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9874	2.9874	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.7050	2.7169	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1120	1.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0652	1.0652	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	2.000	-0.783	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	2.000	-0.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2632	0.0000	0.7895	0.4737	1.4210	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0833	0.1667	0.7500	0.3333	1.2500	0.0833
season	0.20	18	19.100	8.000	15.000	7.000	19.000	2.000	3.7241	1.1379	0.4138	0.7759	0.3621	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	2.9314
predicted_H	0.6400
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8050
predicted_WHIP	1.2552

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2410	0.0990	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9314	2.9314	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6400	0.8521	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8050	0.9199	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2552	1.2552	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.72
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: WAS

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2039

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.108	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.108	5.000	-1.108	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.200	0.129	0.133
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.200	0.344	0.400
predicted_R	0.459	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	1.432	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.200	0.971	1.133
predicted_SO	1.270	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.270	2.000	-1.270	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.108	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	1.270	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.074	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.014
predicted_H	0.740	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	1.233	-0.037

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.074	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.284	0.002
predicted_H	0.744	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.165	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.001
predicted_R	0.464	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.573	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.008
predicted_SO	1.226	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.108

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1000	0.1364	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1750	0.2093	0.3750	0.1750	0.0500	0.1750	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.60	37	-	152.000	31.000	6.000	6.000	21.000	17.000	11.000	47.000	0.2039	0.2561	0.3618	0.2039	0.0395	0.1382	0.0724	0.3092

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0240
predicted_AVG	0.1876
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.2355
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	1.1790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1440	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1080	4.0240	4.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2620	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7550	0.7401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1636	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2355	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4620	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5800	0.5681	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2700	1.1790	1.2332	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2994

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	5.000	1.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.200	-0.299	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.200	-0.390	-0.200
predicted_R	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.844	1.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.200	-0.533	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.822	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.822	1.000	3.178	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	0.822	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	0.048
predicted_3B	0.025	0.003
predicted_AB	3.778	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	-0.034
predicted_H	1.073	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.645	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.623	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.497	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.012
predicted_BB	0.412	0.002
predicted_H	1.078	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.117	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.010
predicted_R	0.651	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5238	0.3333	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.4390	0.2927	0.0000	0.1220	0.0732	0.2683
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	50.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	38.000	28.000	20.000	37.000	0.2994	0.3897	0.5329	0.2994	0.0539	0.2275	0.1198	0.2216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.8750
predicted_AVG	0.2967
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	1.1500
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.3654
predicted_R	0.6790
predicted_RBI	0.6690
predicted_SLG	0.4967
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.3390	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0300	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.8750	3.7784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2967	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3610	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1500	1.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1250	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.6790	0.6454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6690	0.6225	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4967	0.4969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8220	0.8710	0.8421	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2416

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.787	4.000	0.213	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.500	0.008	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.915	2.000	0.085	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.600	0.011	-0.200
predicted_R	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.617	0.000	0.383	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	0.500	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.468	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.468	2.000	-1.468	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.830	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.830	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.468	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.774	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.776	-0.053
predicted_H	0.903	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.187	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.786	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.417	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	1.406	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.774	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.781	0.004
predicted_H	0.907	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.188	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.006
predicted_R	0.793	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.398	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5278	0.2500	0.0556	0.0556	0.1944	0.3056
season	0.60	47	-	178.000	43.000	12.000	12.000	29.000	39.000	39.000	69.000	0.2416	0.3891	0.5112	0.2416	0.0674	0.1629	0.2191	0.3876

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2400
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3765
predicted_R	0.7250
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.4592
predicted_SO	1.3180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2550	0.2630	0.2583	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.7230	3.7739	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8300	0.7010	0.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8930	0.9029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1830	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3765	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8300	0.7250	0.7864	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4120	0.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4592	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4680	1.3180	1.4057	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	2.000	-0.756	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.500	-0.221	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.220	1.000	0.780	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.667	-0.023	-0.417
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	-0.512	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	1.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	2.000	-0.344	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	0.000	0.317	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.220	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.717	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.030
predicted_H	0.780	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.717	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.251	0.001
predicted_H	0.784	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.047	0.000
predicted_HR	0.185	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.037
predicted_R	0.558	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.627	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4571	0.2000	0.0857	0.1714	0.1143	0.0857
season	0.60	41	-	154.000	34.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	9.000	28.000	0.2208	0.2727	0.3442	0.2208	0.0325	0.1299	0.0584	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6590
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.2985
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.5630
predicted_SLG	0.4224
predicted_SO	0.5540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.0750	0.0887	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.6590	3.7167	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2200	0.2940	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8540	0.7802	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2040	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2985	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6130	0.5529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5630	0.5136	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4224	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.5540	0.6308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2717

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.250	-0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.087	1.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.080	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.652	1.000	-0.652	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.250	-0.201	0.000
predicted_SO	0.804	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.804	2.000	0.196	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.652	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	0.804	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.004	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.052
predicted_H	1.078	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.214	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.534	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.004	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.297	0.002
predicted_H	1.083	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.215	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	-0.014
predicted_R	0.655	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.676	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.496	-0.038
predicted_SO	0.808	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.3333	0.0952	0.2857	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	15.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	6.000	0.000	7.000	0.3750	0.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.1000	0.2750	0.0000	0.1750
season	0.60	46	-	184.000	50.000	12.000	7.000	25.000	30.000	16.000	37.000	0.2717	0.3300	0.4511	0.2717	0.0380	0.1359	0.0870	0.2011

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0090
predicted_AVG	0.2969
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	1.1900
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.3352
predicted_R	0.6460
predicted_RBI	0.7410
predicted_SLG	0.5336
predicted_SO	0.8260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.2470	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0090	4.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2210	0.2956	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1900	1.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2330	0.2136	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3352	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6520	0.6460	0.6495	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7410	0.6699	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5336	0.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8040	0.8260	0.8131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 26

All-history rows before 20260518: 26

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.885	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.885	2.000	0.115	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.080	0.333
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.731	0.000	0.269	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.155	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.027	0.333
predicted_SO	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.885	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.462	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.941	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	0.001
predicted_H	0.583	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.061	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.132	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	0.508	0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.941	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.311	0.002
predicted_H	0.586	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.061	0.000
predicted_HR	0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.033
predicted_R	0.474	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.133	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.031
predicted_SO	0.505	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1786	0.2333	0.2143	0.1786	0.0000	0.0714	0.1786
season	0.60	26	-	75.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	8.000	12.000	0.2533	0.3448	0.3067	0.2533	0.0400	0.1067	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0350
predicted_AVG	0.2269
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.0610
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3093
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.1510
predicted_SLG	0.3073
predicted_SO	0.5850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1630	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8850	3.0350	2.9413	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2269	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3100	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6890	0.5834	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0610	0.0610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3093	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4210	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1510	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3073	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4620	0.5850	0.5081	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 0

All-history rows before 20260518: 0

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.733	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.747	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	0.002
predicted_H	0.878	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.596	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.747	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.170	0.001
predicted_H	0.882	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.032
predicted_R	0.601	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.960	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.60	30	-	112.000	33.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	20.000	5.000	28.000	0.2946	0.3305	0.4107	0.2946	0.0268	0.1250	0.0446	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3007
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3599
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1480	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.7680	3.7467	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1710	0.1686	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9850	0.8784	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3007	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4840	0.5955	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4140	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3599	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	1.0160	0.9654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.091	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.091	3.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.490	0.667
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.000	0.507	0.750
predicted_R	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.402	0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.156	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	-0.006
predicted_H	0.571	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000
predicted_R	0.445	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.985	-0.015

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.156	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.268	0.002
predicted_H	0.573	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.021
predicted_R	0.448	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.304	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.040
predicted_SO	0.979	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.1786	0.2333	0.3214	0.1786	0.0357	0.1071	0.0714	0.3214
season	0.60	22	-	68.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	22.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2647	0.1765	0.0147	0.0735	0.0882	0.3235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2700
predicted_AVG	0.2067
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2669
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.3570
predicted_SLG	0.3439
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1520	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0910	3.2700	3.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2560	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6760	0.5707	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0970	0.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2669	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.5060	0.4445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3570	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3439	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9580	0.9846	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 34

All-history rows before 20260518: 34

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2742

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	1.000	-0.265	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	5.000	1.353	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.400	-0.074	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.400	-0.105	-0.200
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	0.000	0.382	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.600	-0.252	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.618	1.000	0.382	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	0.618	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.011
predicted_3B	0.055	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.678	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.023
predicted_H	1.076	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.021

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.055	0.000
predicted_AB	3.678	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.200	0.001
predicted_H	1.081	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.155	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.011
predicted_R	0.474	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.525	-0.009
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.7895	0.3684	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.6842	0.3684	0.0526	0.1316	0.0526	0.1842
season	0.60	34	-	124.000	34.000	9.000	2.000	3.000	21.000	16.000	6.000	21.000	0.2742	0.3053	0.4516	0.2742	0.0242	0.1694	0.0484	0.1694

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2930
predicted_3B	0.0480
predicted_AB	3.7250
predicted_AVG	0.2992
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.1150
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.3407
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.5340
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.2930	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0480	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.7250	3.6778	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2350	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1150	1.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1620	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3407	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4680	0.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5380	0.5211	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5340	0.5340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6180	0.6710	0.6390	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jake Irvin (663623) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	4.000	-2.222	-4.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	3.111	5.000	0.889	-1.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	4.667	4.000	3.333	4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.689	3.000	-0.589	1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	4.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	15.000	25.000	9.000	24.000	3.000	5.7042	1.4366	0.6338	1.0563	0.3803	1.0141	0.1268
last_10	0.35	9	42.200	28.000	42.000	20.000	45.000	6.000	5.9062	1.4531	0.6562	0.9844	0.4688	1.0547	0.1406
season	0.20	9	42.200	28.000	42.000	20.000	45.000	6.000	5.9062	1.4531	0.6562	0.9844	0.4688	1.0547	0.1406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8730
predicted_ER	2.7060
predicted_ERA	5.2188
predicted_H	4.6500
predicted_HR	0.6130
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.6730
predicted_WHIP	1.3978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8730	0.9349	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.7060	3.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2188	5.2188	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.6500	6.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6130	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.6730	4.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3978	1.3978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	8
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	44
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663623
playerID	663623
playerName	Jake Irvin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 14

All-history rows before 20260518: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.929	1.000	-0.929	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.871	1.000	-0.771	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.643	2.000	0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	1.0345	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	18.200	5.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	2.4107	1.0714	0.2679	0.8571	0.2143	0.9107	0.0536
season	0.20	14	29.000	10.000	27.000	6.000	23.000	3.000	3.1034	1.1379	0.3448	0.9310	0.2069	0.7931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	2.9634
predicted_H	1.5560
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5990
predicted_WHIP	1.2086

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4870	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5560	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9634	2.9634	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5560	1.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5990	1.8181	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2086	1.2086	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-1.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	0.200	0.456	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.2500	0.7500	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.2222	0.3333	1.0000	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.200	8.000	19.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	4.3200	1.5000	0.4800	1.1400	0.3600	1.0800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.5420
predicted_ERA	5.1837
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.4869

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4110	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5420	0.2144	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1837	5.1837	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9870	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9180	0.9676	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4869	1.4869	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.591	1.000	-0.591	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.773	1.000	-0.773	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.759	0.200	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.682	0.000	1.318	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	2.1000	0.0000	0.9000	1.2000	0.9000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	0.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.7778	0.6667	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	22	20.200	7.000	17.000	13.000	15.000	3.000	3.0484	1.4516	0.3387	0.8226	0.6290	0.7258	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_ER	0.2420
predicted_ERA	2.9012
predicted_H	0.6710
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6690
predicted_WHIP	1.5077

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4590	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2420	0.1011	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9012	2.9012	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6710	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0630	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6690	1.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5077	1.5077	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 12

All-history rows before 20260518: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.100	0.167	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.083	1.000	-0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	0.9375	0.9375	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	10.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.8214	0.2143	1.0714	0.7500	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	18	19.200	6.000	20.000	14.000	19.000	2.000	2.7458	1.7288	0.3051	1.0170	0.7119	0.9661	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_ER	0.3220
predicted_ERA	3.5646
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8170
predicted_WHIP	1.5403

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4670	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3220	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5646	3.5646	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7850	1.4986	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8170	0.9245	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5403	1.5403	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.75
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_BAL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260518_OAK@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.5733900000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.42660999999999993, "away_win_probability": 0.5733900000000001, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 2 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 4 - 2 LAA", "confidence": 0.5733900000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "OAK 4 - 2 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 2 LAA", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	OAK 4 - 2 LAA	OAK	0.573	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	OAK 5 - 2 LAA	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away OAK	5-5	0.500	4.70	3.90	8	2L	average	average
Home LAA	2-8	0.200	2.40	6.40	-40	6L	cold	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away OAK	23-23	0.500	-13	-0.283	True
Home LAA	16-31	0.340	-60	-1.277	True
Signal	-	-	-0.994	-1.233	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target OAK	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target LAA	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized OAK	32	9	4	0	4	1	7
Player finalized LAA	32	9	3	0	1	2	10
Player model fractional OAK	32.29	8.24	4.30	1.30	4.76	3.68	7.41
Player model fractional LAA	31.74	6.26	3.55	0.75	2.80	3.53	9.85
Simulation box OAK	35	8	5	2	5	2	5
Simulation box LAA	34	7	2	2	2	3	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away OAK	Starter	J.T. Ginn	5.20	1	4	4	1	3.44	1.29	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	0	1	0	4.07	1.26	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.25	1.10	True
Away OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1	1	1	2	2	2.88	1.53	True
Home LAA	Starter	Walbert Urena	5	2	3	4	1	3.77	1.28	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.45	1.12	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.54	1.01	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	1	1	0	2	1	4.29	1.29	True
Home LAA	Middle Reliever	José Fermin	0.10	2	1	2	0	4.51	1.28	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: OAK

Henry Bolte (703607) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

System season_avg: 0.3850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3846

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	0.000	-1.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.344	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	0.006
predicted_H	0.857	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.080	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.768	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.258	0.002
predicted_H	0.885	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.019
predicted_R	0.085	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.057
predicted_SO	0.760	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	13.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3846	0.4000	0.3846	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	4	-	13.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3846	0.4000	0.3846	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.60	4	-	13.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3846	0.4000	0.3846	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2909
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3368
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.3918
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1150	0.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6170	3.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2909	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2720	0.2556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0520	0.8568	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0780	0.0646	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3368	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3140	0.0801	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4850	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3918	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8190	0.7676	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.385

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	703607
playerID	703607
playerName	Henry Bolte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.565	4.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.423	0.417
predicted_BB	0.261	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	1.000	1.130	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	1.783	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.455	0.500
predicted_R	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.565	0.000	2.435	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.470	2.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.250	2.191	2.417
predicted_SO	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	0.000	-0.870	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.565	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.470	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.041	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.614	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.001
predicted_H	0.755	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.563	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.041	0.000
predicted_AB	3.614	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.264	0.003
predicted_H	0.780	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.206	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.022
predicted_R	0.595	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.037
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.5263	0.2368	0.0790	0.1579	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.60	23	-	82.000	20.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	6.000	20.000	0.2439	0.2955	0.4756	0.2439	0.0610	0.1585	0.0732	0.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.2379
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.2907
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.4703
predicted_SO	0.7880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.0850	0.0862	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.0380	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5650	3.6950	3.6138	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2379	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.2630	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8790	0.7548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2330	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2907	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5590	0.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5240	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4700	0.4703	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.7880	0.8392	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.122	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.122	3.000	0.878	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.333	-0.137	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.390	1.000	-0.390	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.390	1.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.500	-0.196	-0.300
predicted_R	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.780	1.000	0.220	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.609	0.333	-0.209	0.067
predicted_SO	0.951	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	0.000	-0.951	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.122	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.390	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.780	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.585	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.087	-0.035
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.005
predicted_H	1.330	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.780	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	-0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.087	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.336	0.003
predicted_BB	0.389	0.004
predicted_H	1.374	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.278	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.002
predicted_R	0.825	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.821	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.596	0.011
predicted_SO	0.908	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.333 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.122

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.5500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	15.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	4.000	7.000	0.3750	0.4348	0.7000	0.3750	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.60	41	-	169.000	57.000	10.000	12.000	27.000	32.000	16.000	39.000	0.3373	0.3957	0.6095	0.3373	0.0710	0.1598	0.0947	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0360
predicted_AVG	0.3331
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_H	1.3440
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.3922
predicted_R	0.7810
predicted_RBI	0.7850
predicted_SLG	0.5852
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2020	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1220	4.0360	4.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3331	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3900	0.3780	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.3440	1.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2700	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3922	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7800	0.7810	0.7804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7850	0.7761	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5850	0.5852	0.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	0.8680	0.9170	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 28

All-history rows before 20260518: 28

System season_avg: 0.3370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.450	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	4.000	1.607	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.337	0.500	-0.337	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	-0.385	-0.500
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.547	0.750	-0.547	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.450	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.393	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.028
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.470	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.016
predicted_H	1.046	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.091	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.371	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.476	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.442	0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.470	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.010
predicted_BB	0.273	0.003
predicted_H	1.081	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.019
predicted_R	0.392	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.004
predicted_SO	0.438	-0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.3125	0.3333	0.5000	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2703	0.2821	0.3514	0.2703	0.0000	0.0811	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.60	28	-	95.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.3368	0.3846	0.5474	0.3368	0.0421	0.1684	0.0842	0.1158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.3019
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3429
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.4756
predicted_SO	0.5210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2860	0.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0200	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4500	3.5020	3.4700	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2440	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0570	1.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0915	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3429	0.3430	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3350	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4840	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4756	0.4758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3930	0.5210	0.4422	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.337

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	RF-P
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 29

All-history rows before 20260518: 29

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1982

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.828	4.000	-0.828	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.135	0.333
predicted_BB	0.483	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	0.517	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.759	0.000	0.241	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	0.217	0.500
predicted_R	0.345	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.724	0.000	-0.724	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	-0.045	0.333
predicted_SO	1.345	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.345	1.000	-1.345	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.828	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.345	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.829	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.458	-0.025
predicted_H	0.827	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.196	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.345	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.652	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.283	-0.062

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.463	0.004
predicted_H	0.855	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.202	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.005
predicted_R	0.364	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.014
predicted_SO	1.270	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.828

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.5405	0.2703	0.0811	0.2432	0.1622	0.2973
season	0.60	29	-	111.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	10.000	14.000	39.000	0.1982	0.2835	0.3784	0.1982	0.0541	0.1892	0.1261	0.3513

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8300
predicted_AVG	0.2270
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.3023
predicted_R	0.3440
predicted_RBI	0.6860
predicted_SLG	0.4194
predicted_SO	1.1870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1160	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8280	3.8300	3.8288	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2270	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.4200	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8690	0.8272	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2050	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3023	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3440	0.3446	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6860	0.6521	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4194	0.4192	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3450	1.1870	1.2827	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 37

All-history rows before 20260518: 37

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2868

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	0.757	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.486	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.486	2.000	0.514	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.000	-0.037	0.250
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.333	-0.102	-0.083
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.120	0.500
predicted_SO	0.459	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.486	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.459	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.463	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.005
predicted_H	0.759	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.503	0.044

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.463	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.322	0.003
predicted_H	0.784	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.049	0.000
predicted_HR	0.032	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.021
predicted_R	0.375	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.499	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2222	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.0606	0.0606	0.2424
season	0.60	37	-	129.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	12.000	12.000	17.000	0.2868	0.3517	0.3798	0.2868	0.0077	0.1085	0.0930	0.1318

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4290
predicted_AVG	0.2427
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3127
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3309
predicted_SO	0.5700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2020	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4860	3.4290	3.4632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2427	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3120	0.3192	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8320	0.7588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3127	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.4000	0.3544	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3680	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3309	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4590	0.5700	0.5034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.095	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.095	3.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.012	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.333	-0.092	-0.083
predicted_R	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.333	-0.073	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.571	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	1.429	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.095	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.165	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.034
predicted_H	0.805	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.203	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.585	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.165	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.350	0.003
predicted_H	0.831	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.015
predicted_R	0.423	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.045
predicted_SO	0.579	-0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.4667	0.4667	0.5333	0.4667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2903	0.3529	0.3226	0.2903	0.0000	0.0323	0.0968	0.2258
season	0.60	21	-	65.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	0.2615	0.3425	0.3231	0.2615	0.0154	0.0769	0.1231	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2880
predicted_AVG	0.2896
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3507
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.3739
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.1130	0.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0950	3.2880	3.1654	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2896	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.2880	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9520	0.8046	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3507	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.4340	0.4003	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2420	0.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3739	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.6090	0.5849	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2687

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	1.000	0.444	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.231	0.500
predicted_BB	0.978	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.978	3.000	-0.978	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	0.000	1.044	2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.432	0.750	0.068	-0.250
predicted_R	0.644	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	0.000	0.356	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.644	0.000	0.356	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.622	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	0.019	0.500
predicted_SO	1.356	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.356	1.000	-0.356	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.978	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.622	-
predicted_SO	1.356	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.012
predicted_3B	0.026	0.004
predicted_AB	3.496	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.945	-0.033
predicted_H	0.987	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.282	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.000
predicted_R	0.697	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.926	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.622	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.297	-0.059

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.496	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.954	0.009
predicted_H	1.020	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.147	0.000
predicted_HR	0.291	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.444	-0.008
predicted_R	0.737	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.979	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.610	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.285	-0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	0.3571	0.5714	1.0714	0.3571	0.2143	0.5714	0.3571	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	9.000	10.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.7576	0.3333	0.0909	0.3636	0.2727	0.3030
season	0.60	45	-	160.000	43.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	29.000	29.000	44.000	61.000	0.2687	0.4320	0.4813	0.2687	0.0500	0.1812	0.2750	0.3812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0310
predicted_AB	3.4100
predicted_AVG	0.2923
predicted_BB	0.8980
predicted_H	0.9970
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.2850
predicted_OBP	0.4521
predicted_R	0.7730
predicted_RBI	0.9340
predicted_SLG	0.6216
predicted_SO	1.2140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1780	0.2070	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0310	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4100	3.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2923	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9780	0.8980	0.9450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9970	0.9870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2850	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4521	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.7730	0.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9340	0.9258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6220	0.6216	0.6218	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3560	1.2140	1.2974	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.814	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.814	3.000	-0.814	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	1.000	-0.442	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.250	-0.031	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.465	0.000	0.535	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.000	-0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.884	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.884	0.000	-0.884	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.814	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.884	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.321	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.818	0.004
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.036
predicted_H	0.605	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.068	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	-0.042

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.321	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.410	0.004
predicted_H	0.625	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.068	0.000
predicted_HR	0.088	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.012
predicted_R	0.501	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.834	-0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.814

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.2105	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.1282	0.2093	0.2821	0.1282	0.0256	0.0256	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.60	43	-	164.000	32.000	14.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	19.000	38.000	0.1951	0.2811	0.3841	0.1951	0.0305	0.1220	0.1158	0.2317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3140
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.1750
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	0.6690
predicted_HBP	0.0680
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.2565
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.3382
predicted_SO	0.7820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3260	0.3140	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0140	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8140	3.8250	3.8185	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1750	0.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.3540	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6690	0.6046	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0680	0.0680	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0940	0.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2565	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4190	0.4739	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3240	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3382	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8840	0.7820	0.8423	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

J.T. Ginn (669372) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 10

All-history rows before 20260518: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.600	1.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.600	9.000	0.400	-5.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.170	6.000	1.030	-0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	9.000	27.000	9.000	23.000	3.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	1.0000	0.3333	0.8518	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	43.100	15.000	36.000	16.000	34.000	5.000	3.1154	1.2000	0.3462	0.8308	0.3692	0.7846	0.1154
season	0.20	10	43.100	15.000	36.000	16.000	34.000	5.000	3.1154	1.2000	0.3462	0.8308	0.3692	0.7846	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8480
predicted_ER	1.9670
predicted_ERA	3.4355
predicted_H	4.7930
predicted_HR	0.6120
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.4580
predicted_WHIP	1.2889

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8480	1.4318	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.9670	1.4924	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4355	3.4355	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.7930	4.4038	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6120	0.8024	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.0000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.4580	3.2516	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2889	1.2889	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	4
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669372
playerID	669372
playerName	J.T. Ginn
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.471	2.000	-0.471	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	1.0345	0.4138	0.5172	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7000	1.0800	0.3000	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	4.0714
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7680
predicted_WHIP	1.2595

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2860	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4250	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0714	4.0714	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8980	0.9596	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7680	1.5126	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2595	1.2595	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.524	2.000	-0.524	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	1.000	0.229	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	2.000	-0.952	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	2.6129	0.5806	0.2903	0.3871	0.1935	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	20	21.100	4.000	9.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.4219	0.3281	0.9375	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3610
predicted_ERA	3.2497
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0060
predicted_WHIP	1.0961

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3610	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2497	3.2497	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7860	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0060	0.4237	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0961	1.0961	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 24

All-history rows before 20260518: 24

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.708	0.000	1.292	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.792	1.000	1.208	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	1.000	0.317	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.3000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.100	2.000	11.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.5000	0.6818	1.5000	0.1364
season	0.20	24	22.000	6.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	2.000	2.4545	1.6364	0.2727	0.8636	0.7727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.2230
predicted_ERA	2.8751
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8150
predicted_WHIP	1.5260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3130	1.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2230	0.6703	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8751	2.8751	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7520	1.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0700	0.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8150	0.9215	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5260	1.5260	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: LAA

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 31

All-history rows before 20260518: 31

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1782

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.258	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.258	3.000	0.742	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.333	0.072	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.484	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	0.000	-0.484	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.333	-0.047	-0.083
predicted_R	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.333	-0.037	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.323	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.323	1.000	-1.323	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.258	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.484	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.258	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.323	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.012	0.012
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.238	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.059
predicted_H	0.618	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.238	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.235	-0.088

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.012	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.238	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.420	-0.005
predicted_H	0.603	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.036	0.000
predicted_HR	0.061	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.013
predicted_R	0.227	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.236	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.263	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.250	0.015

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.3077	0.3077	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	12.000	0.1724	0.2000	0.1724	0.1724	0.0000	0.0345	0.0345	0.4138
season	0.60	31	-	101.000	18.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	15.000	41.000	0.1782	0.2966	0.2871	0.1782	0.0297	0.0891	0.1485	0.4059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0310
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.2060
predicted_AVG	0.2113
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.6770
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2926
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.2940
predicted_SO	1.0980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0310	0.0121	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0180	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2580	3.2060	3.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2113	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4840	0.3330	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6770	0.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0660	0.0623	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2926	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2580	0.2060	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2740	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3230	1.0980	1.2351	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2179

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.628	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.628	4.000	0.372	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.791	0.000	-0.791	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	-0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.651	0.000	-0.651	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.372	1.000	-1.372	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.628	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.372	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.641	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.028
predicted_H	0.706	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.071	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.375	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.014
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.005
predicted_H	0.689	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.015
predicted_R	0.434	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.379	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.038
predicted_SO	1.391	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3158	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	0.1714	0.2750	0.2857	0.1714	0.0000	0.0286	0.1143	0.4000
season	0.60	43	-	156.000	34.000	9.000	8.000	28.000	21.000	19.000	59.000	0.2179	0.3132	0.4295	0.2180	0.0513	0.1795	0.1218	0.3782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2033
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0710
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3805
predicted_SO	1.3780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.3040	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6280	3.6600	3.6411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2033	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.3730	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7440	0.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0710	0.0710	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1130	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.4080	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4210	0.3968	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3805	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3720	1.3780	1.3745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Logan O'Hoppe (681351) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 26

All-history rows before 20260518: 26

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	3.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	0.346	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_SO	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	0.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.290	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.032
predicted_H	0.562	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.077	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.352	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.209	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.290	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.386	-0.005
predicted_H	0.548	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.034	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.028
predicted_R	0.336	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.200	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.846	0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.1613	0.1613	0.0000	0.0000	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.60	26	-	85.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	11.000	22.000	0.2000	0.3100	0.2471	0.2000	0.0118	0.0941	0.1294	0.2588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3240
predicted_AVG	0.1939
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.0770
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2819
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2506
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0550	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.3240	3.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1939	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.3390	0.3909	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6450	0.5616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0770	0.0770	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2819	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.3620	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2400	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.8190	0.8357	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681351
playerID	681351
playerName	Logan O'Hoppe
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 32

All-history rows before 20260518: 32

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.281	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.281	2.000	0.719	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.500	-0.171	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.221	0.500	-0.221	-0.500
predicted_R	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.031	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.031	0.000	-0.031	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.281	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.219	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	1.031	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.283	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.190	0.002
predicted_H	0.583	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.075	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.209	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	1.018	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.283	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.188	-0.002
predicted_H	0.569	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.021	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.218	-0.028
predicted_R	0.200	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.198	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.036
predicted_SO	1.030	0.013

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.1290	0.1562	0.1290	0.1290	0.0000	0.0000	0.0323	0.3226
season	0.60	32	-	105.000	18.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	33.000	0.1714	0.2212	0.2952	0.1714	0.0381	0.0952	0.0571	0.3143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2860
predicted_AVG	0.1980
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2463
predicted_R	0.1940
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.2884
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0310	0.0480	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2810	3.2860	3.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1980	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1940	0.1903	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6510	0.5831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0820	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2463	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2190	0.1940	0.2093	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2340	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2884	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0310	0.9970	1.0178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2575

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	4.000	-0.976	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.257	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	2.000	-1.024	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.500	-0.058	-0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.500	-0.371	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.962	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.012
predicted_H	1.015	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.324	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	0.034

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.962	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.003
predicted_H	0.989	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.051	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.012
predicted_R	0.341	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.309	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.014
predicted_SO	0.758	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2564	0.2927	0.3077	0.2564	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.60	42	-	167.000	43.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	15.000	12.000	30.000	0.2575	0.3077	0.3713	0.2575	0.0180	0.1198	0.0719	0.1796

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9420
predicted_AVG	0.2627
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	1.0360
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3092
predicted_R	0.3580
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.3601
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2170	0.2294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	3.9420	3.9621	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2627	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2560	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0360	1.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3580	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3300	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3601	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7980	0.7483	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	1.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.565	4.000	-0.565	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	1.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.762	0.750
predicted_BB	0.891	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.891	0.000	0.109	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	2.152	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.239	0.000	0.761	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	1.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.399	0.250	0.601	0.750
predicted_R	0.717	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.717	0.000	0.283	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.500	1.518	1.500
predicted_SO	1.152	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.152	0.000	-1.152	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.565	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.891	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.717	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	1.152	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.611	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.813	-0.078
predicted_H	0.743	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.613	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	1.144	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.803	-0.010
predicted_H	0.724	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.133	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.006
predicted_R	0.585	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.315	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.158	0.014

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	0.1579	0.2558	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0263	0.1316	0.3684
season	0.60	46	-	164.000	39.000	7.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	41.000	53.000	0.2378	0.3990	0.4817	0.2378	0.0671	0.1402	0.2500	0.3232

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6770
predicted_AVG	0.2107
predicted_BB	0.7020
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3401
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3852
predicted_SO	1.1330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2060	0.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5650	3.6770	3.6113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2107	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8910	0.7020	0.8129	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7750	0.7427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1440	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3401	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7170	0.4650	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3450	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3852	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1520	1.1330	1.1442	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2228

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.191	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_3B	0.021	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.021	0.000	-0.021	0.000
predicted_AB	3.940	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.915	4.000	1.085	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	-0.023	0.200
predicted_BB	0.596	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.596	0.000	-0.596	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.085	0.000	-0.085	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	0.000	0.128	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.133	0.200
predicted_R	0.638	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.638	0.000	-0.638	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.426	0.000	-0.426	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.197	0.200
predicted_SO	1.426	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.426	2.000	0.574	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-
predicted_3B	0.021	-
predicted_AB	3.940	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.596	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.638	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.426	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.025	0.004
predicted_AB	3.871	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.598	0.002
predicted_H	0.894	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.093	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.433	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.380	-0.046

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.871	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.590	-0.007
predicted_H	0.872	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.093	0.000
predicted_HR	0.146	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.019
predicted_R	0.582	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.397	0.017

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.940

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.4118
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3556	0.4054	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1622	0.3243
season	0.60	47	-	184.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	30.000	28.000	67.000	0.2228	0.3333	0.3967	0.2228	0.0380	0.1087	0.1522	0.3641

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0300
predicted_AB	3.7730
predicted_AVG	0.2312
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0930
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3471
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.4007
predicted_SO	1.3150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1910	0.1370	0.1686	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0210	0.0300	0.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9400	3.7730	3.8708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2312	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5960	0.6000	0.5977	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8720	0.8943	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0930	0.0930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1470	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3471	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6380	0.5690	0.6094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4230	0.4330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4007	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4260	1.3150	1.3800	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2611

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.830	3.000	0.170	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.149	0.000	-0.149	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_R	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.340	0.000	0.660	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.574	0.000	0.426	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_SO	0.957	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.149	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.340	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.957	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.724	-0.106
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.058
predicted_H	0.746	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.105	-
predicted_HR	0.107	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.310	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.557	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.996	0.039

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.003
predicted_H	0.727	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.104	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.059
predicted_R	0.295	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.532	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.056
predicted_SO	1.008	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.0667	0.2105	0.1333	0.0667	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3421	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.2188	0.0938	0.3750
season	0.60	47	-	180.000	47.000	6.000	6.000	27.000	16.000	7.000	45.000	0.2611	0.3077	0.3944	0.2611	0.0333	0.1500	0.0389	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5730
predicted_AVG	0.2232
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	0.7970
predicted_HBP	0.1050
predicted_HR	0.1160
predicted_OBP	0.2965
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.5970
predicted_SLG	0.3784
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.2030	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.5730	3.7244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2232	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1490	0.2900	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7970	0.7458	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1050	0.1050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1160	0.1066	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2965	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3400	0.2660	0.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5970	0.5575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3784	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9570	1.0510	0.9956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Adam Frazier (624428) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.059	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.889	2.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_R	0.647	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	2.000	-0.944	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.125	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.031
predicted_H	0.550	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.996	-0.004

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.003
predicted_H	0.537	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.022
predicted_R	0.550	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.216	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.031
predicted_SO	1.008	0.012

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3846
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	11.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0333	0.0000	0.3667
season	0.60	17	-	52.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	5.000	17.000	0.2500	0.3158	0.4231	0.2500	0.0192	0.0961	0.0961	0.3269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0290
predicted_AB	3.2470
predicted_AVG	0.2100
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2569
predicted_R	0.4440
predicted_RBI	0.2760
predicted_SLG	0.3534
predicted_SO	0.9880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2270	0.2322	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0290	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0590	3.2470	3.1246	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2100	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.2060	0.2633	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6820	0.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0610	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2569	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.4440	0.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2760	0.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3534	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9880	0.9958	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624428
playerID	624428
playerName	Adam Frazier
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Walbert Urena (700712) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.429	1.000	-1.429	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.429	2.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.143	3.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.771	5.000	1.229	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.714	4.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	10.000	17.000	14.000	24.000	2.000	3.5065	1.2078	0.3896	0.6623	0.5454	0.9351	0.0779
last_10	0.35	7	27.100	10.000	22.000	17.000	26.000	2.000	3.2927	1.4268	0.3659	0.8049	0.6220	0.9512	0.0732
season	0.20	7	27.100	10.000	22.000	17.000	26.000	2.000	3.2927	1.4268	0.3659	0.8049	0.6220	0.9512	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3640
predicted_ER	2.0350
predicted_ERA	3.7682
predicted_H	3.8750
predicted_HR	0.4820
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.5880
predicted_WHIP	1.2835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3640	1.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0350	2.0166	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7682	3.7682	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.8750	3.9408	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4820	0.7545	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.5880	3.7526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2835	1.2835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700712
playerID	700712
playerName	Walbert Urena
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.320	1.000	-0.220	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.933	2.000	-1.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	1.2273	0.6818	0.1364	0.2727	0.4091	1.6364
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.3500
season	0.20	15	21.200	10.000	12.000	11.000	29.000	4.1538	1.0615	0.4615	0.5538	0.5077	1.3385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_ER	0.5110
predicted_ERA	3.4471
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5920
predicted_WHIP	1.1179

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5600	0.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5110	0.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4471	3.4471	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9300	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5920	0.6730	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1179	1.1179	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	4

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 15

All-history rows before 20260518: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	1.100	-0.053
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.467	1.000	-0.467

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	1.5882	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	13.200	6.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	3.9512	0.9512	0.4390	0.5854	0.3659	1.0244	0.1463
season	0.20	15	20.100	7.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	2.000	3.0984	1.0328	0.3443	0.5410	0.4918	1.0820	0.0984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_ER	0.4980
predicted_ERA	3.5412
predicted_H	0.8800
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3060
predicted_WHIP	1.0052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3930	0.1635	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4980	0.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5412	3.5412	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8800	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1760	0.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3060	1.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0052	1.0052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
last_10	0.35	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364
season	0.20	4	3.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.9091	1.0909	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727	1.6364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	4.2948
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0380
predicted_WHIP	1.2880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3650	0.8215	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4770	0.8530	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2948	4.2948	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9230	1.6972	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0380	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2880	1.2880	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	0.100	-0.744	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	9.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	4.0000	0.8889	0.4444	0.5556	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	9	9.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	4.0000	0.8889	0.4444	0.5556	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_ER	0.2550
predicted_ERA	4.5131
predicted_H	0.4370
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4650
predicted_WHIP	1.2845

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2160	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2550	1.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5131	4.5131	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.4370	1.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0550	0.6800	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4650	0.8188	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2845	1.2845	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_LAD@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260518_SF@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SF 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SF 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "SF"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SF 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "SF"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 4 - 3 ARI	SF	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 4 - 3 ARI	SF	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	6-4	0.600	5	4.50	5	2W	average	average
Home ARI	5-5	0.500	3.90	3.30	6	1W	average	strong

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away SF	20-27	0.426	-37	-0.787	True
Home ARI	22-23	0.489	-17	-0.378	True
Signal	-	-	0.409	0.504	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target ARI	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	34	8	3	0	2	0	8
Player finalized ARI	34	9	5	0	3	2	8
Player model fractional SF	33.96	8.05	3.99	1.18	3.60	2.13	8.23
Player model fractional ARI	32.90	7.69	4.39	0.81	3.87	3.39	6.83
Simulation box SF	37	10	4	0	4	2	4
Simulation box ARI	32	5	3	2	3	1	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Robbie Ray	5.20	3	5	5	1	3.65	1.27	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.93	1.30	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1	0	0	0	0	3.69	1.17	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	1	0	0	0	0	3.23	1.14	True
Home ARI	Starter	Zac Gallen	4.10	3	3	7	1	5.22	1.46	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1	0	0	0	0	3.85	1.24	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	1	0	1	1	1	4.61	1.38	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	1	0	1	0	4.39	1.34	True
Home ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1.20	0	0	1	0	4.15	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Eric Haase (606992) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	2.000	0.857	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.227	0.500
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.196	0.500
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.636	0.000	-0.136	0.500
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.516	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.254	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.027
predicted_H	0.694	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.672	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.516	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	0.031

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.254	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.036
predicted_BB	0.169	-0.001
predicted_H	0.692	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.017	0.000
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.050
predicted_R	0.667	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.421	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.047
predicted_SO	0.749	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.6875	0.2500	0.1250	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.20	7	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.6364	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.0454	0.2273
season	0.60	7	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.6364	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.0454	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5330
predicted_AVG	0.2494
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_OBP	0.3016
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.5158
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2040	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.5330	3.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2494	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2370	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8810	0.6942	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2410	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3016	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5650	0.6716	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5330	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5160	0.5158	0.5159	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8220	0.7447	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	606992
playerID	606992
playerName	Eric Haase
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

System season_avg: 0.0870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0870

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.160	0.250	-0.160	-0.250
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	0.000	-0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.223	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.378	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.009
predicted_H	0.490	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.000
predicted_R	0.202	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.126	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.378	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.019
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.002
predicted_H	0.489	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.121	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.209	-0.014
predicted_R	0.200	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.272	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.058
predicted_SO	1.133	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.0588	0.1111	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.20	7	-	23.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.0870	0.1600	0.2174	0.0870	0.0435	0.0435	0.0870	0.3478
season	0.60	7	-	23.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.0870	0.1600	0.2174	0.0870	0.0435	0.0435	0.0870	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.1635
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.2233
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3203
predicted_SO	1.0860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0940	0.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6040	3.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1635	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2560	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5890	0.4904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1520	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2230	0.2233	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.3450	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3330	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3203	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0860	1.1264	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.087

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260515_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	2.000	0.756	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	4.000	-0.867	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.500	0.109	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.600	0.199	-0.100
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.356	1.000	-0.356	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	1.000	0.351	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.089	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.089	1.000	-1.089	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	1.089	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.038
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.897	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	-0.023
predicted_H	0.745	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	1.145	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.002
predicted_H	0.742	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.045	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.022
predicted_R	0.351	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.345	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.290	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.152	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3333	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	0.1750	0.2500	0.3000	0.1750	0.0000	0.1000	0.0750	0.3500
season	0.60	45	-	174.000	39.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	16.000	17.000	17.000	49.000	0.2241	0.3005	0.3161	0.2241	0.0057	0.0920	0.0977	0.2816

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.9390
predicted_AVG	0.2125
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2797
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.3270
predicted_SO	1.2260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.3370	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.9390	3.8966	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2125	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3230	0.3554	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8370	0.7445	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2797	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3180	0.3534	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3870	0.3475	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3270	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0890	1.2260	1.1453	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 46

All-history rows before 20260518: 46

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2340

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.087	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.087	5.000	-0.087	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.200	0.016	0.050
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	1.000	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.200	-0.015	0.050
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	2.000	0.630	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.283	0.000	0.717	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.200	0.144	0.300
predicted_SO	1.217	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.217	0.000	-1.217	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.087	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.217	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.102	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.160	0.008
predicted_H	1.020	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.358	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	4.102	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.159	-0.001
predicted_H	1.016	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.045	-0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.031
predicted_R	0.379	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.356	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.355	-0.032
predicted_SO	1.167	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.056)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 46

Reference playing time: 4.087

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4286	0.3333	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	44.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.3636	0.3778	0.4318	0.3636	0.0000	0.1591	0.0227	0.2046
season	0.60	46	-	188.000	44.000	14.000	3.000	13.000	17.000	7.000	56.000	0.2340	0.2653	0.3564	0.2340	0.0160	0.0692	0.0372	0.2979

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1230
predicted_AVG	0.2750
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	1.1340
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3072
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.3872
predicted_SO	1.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.3030	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0870	4.1230	4.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1710	0.1598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1340	1.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3072	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3980	0.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3980	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2170	1.0780	1.1598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	46
Season rows before report date	46
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	46
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3276

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.955	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.955	4.000	1.045	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.357	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.750	0.072	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.295	3.000	0.705	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.418	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.800	0.030	-0.400
predicted_R	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.477	2.000	0.523	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.437	1.500	0.163	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.159	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.159	0.000	0.841	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.955	-
predicted_AVG	0.357	-
predicted_BB	0.295	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.418	-
predicted_R	0.477	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.541	-
predicted_SO	0.159	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.013
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.946	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.357	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	0.064
predicted_H	1.384	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.418	-0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.184	0.025

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.349	-0.008
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.002
predicted_H	1.379	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.141	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.404	-0.014
predicted_R	0.528	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.401	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.530	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.185	0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.349 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.955

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	0.5263	0.6087	0.9474	0.5263	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105	0.0000
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	1.000	0.3659	0.4583	0.5610	0.3659	0.0488	0.1220	0.1707	0.0244
season	0.60	44	-	174.000	57.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	21.000	13.000	7.000	0.3276	0.3704	0.4368	0.3276	0.0115	0.0920	0.0747	0.0402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2360
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.9320
predicted_AVG	0.3571
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	1.4040
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.4178
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.5407
predicted_SO	0.2190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2360	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0250	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9550	3.9320	3.9456	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3570	0.3571	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2950	0.4510	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.4040	1.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1450	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4180	0.4178	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4770	0.6100	0.5315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4080	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5410	0.5407	0.5409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1590	0.2190	0.1836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2458

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.213	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.213	0.000	0.787	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.809	5.000	-0.809	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.200	0.088	0.133
predicted_BB	0.277	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.277	0.000	1.723	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.936	1.000	0.064	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.106	0.000	-0.106	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.200	0.306	0.400
predicted_R	0.383	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.383	1.000	0.617	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.404	1.000	1.596	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.200	0.281	0.467
predicted_SO	1.255	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.255	0.000	-1.255	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.809	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.277	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.383	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	1.255	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.843	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	0.004
predicted_H	0.982	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.103	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.420	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	1.253	-0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.843	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.002
predicted_H	0.978	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.102	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.305	-0.012
predicted_R	0.418	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.354	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.025
predicted_SO	1.260	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.809

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.3810	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	0.3333	0.3953	0.5897	0.3333	0.0513	0.1026	0.1026	0.3590
season	0.60	47	-	179.000	44.000	10.000	5.000	19.000	18.000	13.000	59.000	0.2458	0.2938	0.3855	0.2458	0.0279	0.1061	0.0726	0.3296

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8910
predicted_AVG	0.2676
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3171
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.4214
predicted_SO	1.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2130	0.2710	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8090	3.8910	3.8427	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2770	0.2870	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0410	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3171	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3830	0.4740	0.4204	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3810	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4214	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2550	1.2500	1.2529	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2986

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	5.000	1.211	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.400	-0.099	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	2.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.400	-0.146	-0.200
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.400	-0.335	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.868	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.868	0.000	-0.868	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.541	-
predicted_SO	0.868	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.832	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.014
predicted_H	1.115	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.247	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.528	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.541	0.000
predicted_SO	0.904	0.036

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.832	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.171	-0.001
predicted_H	1.111	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.245	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.031
predicted_R	0.581	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.525	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.6667	0.3810	0.0952	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	11.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.5750	0.2750	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.60	38	-	144.000	43.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	21.000	20.000	6.000	33.000	0.2986	0.3462	0.5347	0.2986	0.0556	0.1458	0.0417	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2997
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	1.1670
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_OBP	0.3510
predicted_R	0.6710
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.5411
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1390	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0160	0.0220	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.8950	3.8317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2997	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1920	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1670	1.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2570	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3510	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.6710	0.5844	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5550	0.5281	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5410	0.5411	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8680	0.9570	0.9039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

System season_avg: 0.1570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.157	0.250	0.093	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.189	0.400	0.061	-0.150
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	2.000	-0.421	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	4.000	-0.474	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	1.000	-0.107	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.211	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	1.211	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.724	0.040
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.012
predicted_H	0.643	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	-0.038

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.169	-0.001
predicted_H	0.641	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.030
predicted_R	0.449	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.504	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.061
predicted_SO	1.179	0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.7500	0.2500	0.1500	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	0.1795	0.2000	0.4359	0.1795	0.0769	0.1538	0.0256	0.3077
season	0.60	19	-	70.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	3.000	23.000	0.1571	0.1892	0.3571	0.1571	0.0571	0.1286	0.0429	0.3286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1390
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7930
predicted_AVG	0.1986
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_OBP	0.2379
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.5890
predicted_SLG	0.4353
predicted_SO	1.1060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1390	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.7930	3.7239	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1986	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1920	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7530	0.6433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2500	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2379	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.5050	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5890	0.5072	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4353	0.4351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2110	1.1060	1.1726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.157

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2644

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.022	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.022	0.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	5.000	1.133	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.200	-0.064	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.022	1.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.200	-0.110	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.422	1.000	-0.422	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.200	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SO	0.489	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.489	0.000	1.511	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.022	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.422	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.489	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.990	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.024
predicted_H	1.003	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.091	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.488	-0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	-0.001
predicted_H	1.000	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.091	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.008
predicted_R	0.422	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.425	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.005
predicted_SO	0.491	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.4091	0.2273	0.0454	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454
last_10	0.20	10	-	46.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2391	0.2708	0.3478	0.2391	0.0217	0.0870	0.0000	0.0870
season	0.60	45	-	174.000	46.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	10.000	22.000	0.2644	0.3102	0.3851	0.2644	0.0172	0.0862	0.0575	0.1264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2100
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	4.0760
predicted_AVG	0.2508
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0910
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.2942
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3842
predicted_SO	0.4860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2100	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0220	0.0140	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	4.0760	3.9898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1630	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0220	1.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0910	0.0910	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1020	0.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4220	0.4280	0.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4400	0.4282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4890	0.4860	0.4878	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Robbie Ray (592662) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.222	2.000	-1.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.889	3.000	1.111	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.333	7.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.411	4.200	-0.211	1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.444	2.000	-0.444	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	11.000	26.000	10.000	25.000	6.000	3.5357	1.2857	0.3929	0.9286	0.3571	0.8929	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	50.100	17.000	39.000	20.000	49.000	10.000	3.0397	1.1722	0.3377	0.7748	0.3973	0.9735	0.1987
season	0.20	9	50.100	17.000	39.000	20.000	49.000	10.000	3.0397	1.1722	0.3377	0.7748	0.3973	0.9735	0.1987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1220
predicted_ER	2.3000
predicted_ERA	3.6526
predicted_H	5.0670
predicted_HR	1.0220
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.2890
predicted_WHIP	1.2688

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.1220	1.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.3000	2.6506	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6526	3.6526	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.0670	5.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.0220	1.5119	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.2890	4.1425	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2688	1.2688	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	5
HR	2
BF	23
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.04
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	592662
playerID	592662
playerName	Robbie Ray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 19

All-history rows before 20260518: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	0.200	0.195	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	2.000	-1.105	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.6667	0.5833	0.7500	0.1667
season	0.20	19	20.000	4.000	10.000	12.000	21.000	3.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.5000	0.6000	1.0500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	3.9277
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9870
predicted_WHIP	1.3038

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5400	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4590	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9277	3.9277	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8310	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.0833	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9870	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3038	1.3038	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 6

All-history rows before 20260518: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.167	0.000	-0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6316	0.1579	0.3158	0.3158	0.1579
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6316	0.1579	0.3158	0.3158	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_ER	0.4100
predicted_ERA	3.6929
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7970
predicted_WHIP	1.1672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3760	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4100	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6929	3.6929	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7910	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7970	0.9366	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1672	1.1672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.2143	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	20	19.100	5.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.3276	0.8276	0.2586	0.5172	0.3103	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.3590
predicted_ERA	3.2324
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7960
predicted_WHIP	1.1363

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3440	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3590	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2324	3.2324	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7930	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7960	0.9162	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1363	1.1363	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.33
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_SF@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: ARI

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2436

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.750	0.006	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	3.000	0.095	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.800	-0.049	-0.550
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	2.000	-0.476	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.750	-0.096	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.952	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	0.000	0.048	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.749	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.004
predicted_H	0.879	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.958	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.749	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.283	0.001
predicted_H	0.879	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	-0.022
predicted_R	0.487	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.347	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.955	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3478	0.3810	0.3333	0.0000	0.1905	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2703	0.3171	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.1892	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.60	21	-	78.000	19.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	10.000	6.000	20.000	0.2436	0.2989	0.3462	0.2436	0.0128	0.1282	0.0769	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2130
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_AVG	0.2610
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3105
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.3728
predicted_SO	0.9690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2130	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0015	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.8070	3.7489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2610	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2760	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9940	0.8790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3105	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.5020	0.4858	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5540	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3728	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	0.9690	0.9584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Tim Tawa (694374) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

System season_avg: 0.1210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.121	0.333	-0.121	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.500	0.103	-0.167
predicted_R	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.182	0.667	-0.182	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.091	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.120	0.120
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.012
predicted_H	0.451	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.146	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.048

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.120	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.021
predicted_BB	0.444	0.002
predicted_H	0.451	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.012	0.000
predicted_HR	0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.009
predicted_R	0.146	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.028
predicted_SO	0.591	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.0625	0.2105	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.1000	0.2222	0.1667	0.1000	0.0667	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.60	11	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1212	0.2308	0.1818	0.1212	0.0606	0.1515	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3710
predicted_AVG	0.1656
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	0.5580
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2599
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2665
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1880	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3710	3.1198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1656	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4170	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.5580	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0470	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2599	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0910	0.2620	0.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.3010	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2665	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.6950	0.5934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.121

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260417_TOR@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	694374
playerID	694374
playerName	Tim Tawa
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.119	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.000	0.067	0.333
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.555	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	0.019
predicted_H	0.705	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.959	-0.041

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.555	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.034
predicted_BB	0.270	0.001
predicted_H	0.705	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.015	0.000
predicted_HR	0.046	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.041
predicted_R	0.168	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.304	-0.034
predicted_SO	0.956	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.20	8	-	28.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.2857	0.2143	0.1786	0.0714	0.2857
season	0.60	8	-	28.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.2857	0.2143	0.1786	0.0714	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6820
predicted_AVG	0.2316
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2963
predicted_R	0.2640
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.3381
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2010	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6820	3.5553	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2316	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3140	0.2694	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8530	0.7047	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0590	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2963	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.2640	0.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4800	0.3964	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3381	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8660	0.9593	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.093	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.512	4.000	0.488	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.500	-0.278	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.628	1.000	-0.628	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	2.000	-0.977	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	2.000	-0.163	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.600	-0.390	-0.600
predicted_R	0.721	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.721	3.000	-0.721	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.558	3.000	-0.558	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.613	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.543	2.000	-0.543	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.977	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	2.000	0.023	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.093	-
predicted_AB	3.512	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.628	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.721	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.613	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.017
predicted_3B	0.075	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.513	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.686	0.058
predicted_H	1.065	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.222	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.779	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.613	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	-0.068

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	3.513	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.688	0.002
predicted_H	1.065	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.223	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.013
predicted_R	0.780	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.614	0.001
predicted_SO	0.906	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	3.000	0.4118	0.5833	0.8824	0.4118	0.1177	0.2353	0.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.7353	0.3529	0.0882	0.1471	0.2647	0.1471
season	0.60	43	-	151.000	42.000	11.000	4.000	7.000	24.000	31.000	27.000	42.000	0.2781	0.3901	0.5430	0.2782	0.0464	0.1589	0.1788	0.2782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0500
predicted_AB	3.5140
predicted_AVG	0.3091
predicted_BB	0.7690
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.2240
predicted_OBP	0.4301
predicted_R	0.8620
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.6134
predicted_SO	0.8100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2980	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0930	0.0500	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5120	3.5140	3.5128	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3091	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6280	0.7690	0.6856	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0860	1.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2240	0.2216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4301	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7210	0.8620	0.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5800	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6130	0.6134	0.6132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	0.8100	0.9088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2260

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	4.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.024	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.600	-0.093	-0.350
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	1.000	0.595	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.750	0.644	0.250
predicted_SO	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.548	0.000	0.452	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.476	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.548	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.005
predicted_3B	0.058	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.533	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.637	-0.006
predicted_H	0.756	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.572	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.058	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.006
predicted_BB	0.639	0.002
predicted_H	0.757	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.041	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.001
predicted_R	0.410	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.004
predicted_SO	0.571	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.0270	0.1892	0.1622
season	0.60	42	-	146.000	33.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	17.000	27.000	23.000	0.2260	0.3429	0.3562	0.2260	0.0137	0.0822	0.1849	0.1575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.2197
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3340
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.3268
predicted_SO	0.6080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1800	0.1723	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0400	0.0584	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4760	3.6170	3.5334	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2197	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.6290	0.6373	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7950	0.7565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3340	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4160	0.4095	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2350	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3268	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5480	0.6080	0.5724	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 30

All-history rows before 20260518: 30

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2946

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.733	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.733	3.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.333	-0.295	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.333	-0.331	-0.333
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.333	-0.411	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	2.000	-0.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.733	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.747	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	0.002
predicted_H	0.878	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.596	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	0.032

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.747	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.169	0.001
predicted_H	0.879	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.039	0.000
predicted_HR	0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.033
predicted_R	0.597	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.035
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.60	30	-	112.000	33.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	20.000	5.000	28.000	0.2946	0.3305	0.4107	0.2946	0.0268	0.1250	0.0446	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7680
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3007
predicted_R	0.4850
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3599
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1480	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7330	3.7680	3.7467	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1710	0.1686	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9850	0.8784	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0730	0.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3007	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4850	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4140	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3599	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	1.0160	0.9654	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2169

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	4.200	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.150	4.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.500	-0.217	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.600	-0.270	-0.600
predicted_R	0.525	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	-0.525	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.750	-0.367	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	0.000	0.225	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	4.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.029
predicted_3B	0.055	0.005
predicted_AB	4.159	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.006
predicted_H	0.939	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.337	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	-0.067

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.055	0.000
predicted_AB	4.159	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.001
predicted_BB	0.307	0.001
predicted_H	0.939	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	-0.002
predicted_R	0.507	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.015
predicted_SO	0.706	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.200

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2195	0.2727	0.3902	0.2195	0.0000	0.0976	0.0732	0.0732
season	0.60	40	-	166.000	36.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	21.000	12.000	31.000	0.2169	0.2697	0.3675	0.2169	0.0301	0.0904	0.0723	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2220
predicted_3B	0.0620
predicted_AB	4.1000
predicted_AVG	0.2249
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.2812
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3695
predicted_SO	0.6110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.2220	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0620	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2000	4.1000	4.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2249	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3140	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9220	0.9386	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2812	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.4790	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3320	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3695	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.6110	0.7081	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2746

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	4.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	-0.025	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.400	-0.102	-0.150
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.250	-0.201	0.000
predicted_SO	0.738	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.738	1.000	0.262	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.738	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.369	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	0.088
predicted_H	0.866	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.084	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.610	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.482	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.369	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.470	0.002
predicted_H	0.866	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.084	0.000
predicted_HR	0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.031
predicted_R	0.611	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.483	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=44.0, weight=0.238, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4783	0.4667	0.2667	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	0.2812	0.4286	0.5000	0.2812	0.0312	0.1250	0.2500	0.2188
season	0.60	42	-	142.000	39.000	7.000	6.000	21.000	24.000	16.000	31.000	0.2746	0.3519	0.4507	0.2747	0.0423	0.1479	0.1127	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3520
predicted_AVG	0.2696
predicted_BB	0.5980
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0840
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.3789
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.4531
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2920	0.2175	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.3520	3.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2696	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.5980	0.4687	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9040	0.8659	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0840	0.0840	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1060	0.1024	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3789	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.6670	0.6098	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5000	0.4821	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4531	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7380	0.7620	0.7477	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 36

All-history rows before 20260518: 36

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3221

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	4.139	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.139	5.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.200	-0.072	0.050
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.200	-0.090	0.050
predicted_R	0.694	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.694	1.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	0.200	0.477	0.800
predicted_SO	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	4.139	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.024	-0.004
predicted_AB	4.159	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.116	0.005
predicted_H	1.143	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.681	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.756	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.159	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.027
predicted_BB	0.117	0.000
predicted_H	1.144	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.029
predicted_R	0.682	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.440	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.139

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	23.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.3478	0.3478	0.5217	0.3478	0.0435	0.3044	0.0000	0.0435
last_10	0.20	10	-	43.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	0.2558	0.2727	0.3488	0.2558	0.0233	0.2093	0.0233	0.1163
season	0.60	36	-	149.000	48.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	28.000	25.000	4.000	15.000	0.3221	0.3399	0.5235	0.3221	0.0470	0.1879	0.0268	0.1007

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	4.1880
predicted_AVG	0.3025
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_H	1.2670
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.8400
predicted_SLG	0.4730
predicted_SO	0.4770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1780	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0170	0.0236	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1390	4.1880	4.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3025	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1240	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.2670	1.1432	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1670	0.1509	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	0.6610	0.6807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.8400	0.7563	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4730	0.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.4770	0.4411	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Zac Gallen (668678) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.556	2.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	4.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.667	6.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.622	4.200	-0.522	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.222	4.000	-0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 8.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	16.000	29.000	7.000	18.000	4.000	6.2609	1.5652	0.6956	1.2609	0.3044	0.7826	0.1739
last_10	0.35	9	43.000	24.000	51.000	14.000	29.000	6.000	5.0233	1.5116	0.5581	1.1861	0.3256	0.6744	0.1395
season	0.20	9	43.000	24.000	51.000	14.000	29.000	6.000	5.0233	1.5116	0.5581	1.1861	0.3256	0.6744	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9680
predicted_ER	3.3980
predicted_ERA	5.2217
predicted_H	6.6030
predicted_HR	0.8770
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	4.7790
predicted_WHIP	1.4632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9680	1.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.3980	2.6978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2217	5.2217	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.6030	6.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8770	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	8.0000	6.0000	7.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.7790	3.8879	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4632	1.4632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.02
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668678
playerID	668678
playerName	Zac Gallen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 2

All-history rows before 20260518: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	3.8493
predicted_H	0.3740
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3940
predicted_WHIP	1.2414

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1450	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8493	3.8493	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3740	0.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3940	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2414	1.2414	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 2

All-history rows before 20260518: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6144
predicted_H	0.3380
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3290
predicted_WHIP	1.3838

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1520	0.7849	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1810	0.7922	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6144	4.6144	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3380	0.8321	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3290	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3838	1.3838	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.1750
predicted_ERA	4.3882
predicted_H	0.3510
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3280
predicted_WHIP	1.3427

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1300	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1750	0.7990	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3882	4.3882	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.3510	1.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0110	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3280	0.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3427	1.3427	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	1.100	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1240
predicted_ER	0.1540
predicted_ERA	4.1508
predicted_H	0.3090
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3130
predicted_WHIP	1.2995

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1240	0.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1540	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1508	4.1508	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3090	0.8390	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0430	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3130	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2995	1.2995	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260518_TEX@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TEX 2 - 3 COL", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TEX 3 - 4 COL	COL	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TEX 2 - 3 COL	COL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TEX	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.20	2	1W	cold	strong
Home COL	4-6	0.400	4.20	5.70	-15	1L	average	weak

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TEX	22-24	0.478	3	0.065	True
Home COL	18-29	0.383	-44	-0.936	True
Signal	-	-	-1.001	-1.144	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TEX	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target COL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TEX	32	9	1	0	1	0	9
Player finalized COL	32	9	2	0	2	0	9
Player model fractional TEX	30.96	7.01	3.44	0.93	3.49	2.50	7.89
Player model fractional COL	31.24	7.06	3.60	0.81	3.28	2.63	8.97
Simulation box TEX	33	7	2	0	2	1	7
Simulation box COL	28	5	3	1	3	2	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TEX	Starter	MacKenzie Gore	5.10	3	4	5	2	4.86	1.32	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.20	0	1	0	0	2.34	0.85	True
Away TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1	0	0	0	0	3.27	1.11	True
Home COL	Starter	Jose Quintana	5	1	6	5	1	3.84	1.31	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.05	1.14	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.10	0	0	1	0	2.97	1.19	True
Home COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1.10	1	0	0	0	5.07	1.58	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TEX

Michael Helman (680737) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 0

All-history rows before 20260518: 0

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.536	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.798	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.937	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.017	-
predicted_AB	3.536	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.365	-
predicted_H	0.798	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.412	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.937	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.005
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.578	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.003
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.013
predicted_H	0.818	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.001
predicted_R	0.471	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.004
predicted_SO	0.924	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.000
predicted_3B	0.017	0.000
predicted_AB	3.578	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.003
predicted_BB	0.353	0.001
predicted_H	0.829	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.112	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.002
predicted_R	0.482	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.431	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.004
predicted_SO	0.922	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2440
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3954
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1810	0.1549	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0170	0.0140	0.0165	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5360	3.8010	3.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2440	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3650	0.2820	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7980	0.9270	0.8183	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1090	0.1220	0.1110	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.3051	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4910	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4120	0.4720	0.4214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3954	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9370	0.8530	0.9238	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2289

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	1.000	-0.140	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.860	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.860	4.000	0.140	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.500	-0.229	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	2.000	-0.884	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	1.000	-0.163	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.500	-0.271	-0.500
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	2.000	-0.395	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.651	4.000	-0.651	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	1.500	-0.392	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.093	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.093	1.000	-1.093	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.860	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.209	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	1.093	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.779	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.289	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.050
predicted_H	1.041	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.442	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.961	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000
predicted_SO	1.014	-0.079

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.779	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.010
predicted_BB	0.260	0.001
predicted_H	1.054	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.213	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.020
predicted_R	0.452	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.983	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.487	-0.017
predicted_SO	1.012	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.860

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.5000	0.5789	0.9375	0.5000	0.1250	0.6250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5000	0.2941	0.0588	0.3235	0.1177	0.1471
season	0.60	43	-	166.000	38.000	6.000	7.000	28.000	17.000	9.000	47.000	0.2289	0.2712	0.3916	0.2289	0.0422	0.1687	0.0542	0.2831

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2886
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	1.0560
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_OBP	0.3454
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.9760
predicted_SLG	0.5040
predicted_SO	0.8990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1510	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8600	3.6600	3.7785	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2886	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2090	0.3320	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0560	1.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2110	0.2104	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3454	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.5090	0.4415	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.9760	0.9606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5040	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0930	0.8990	1.0139	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 42

All-history rows before 20260518: 42

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	1.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.262	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.867	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.014
predicted_H	0.961	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.004
predicted_BB	0.248	0.001
predicted_H	0.973	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.046	0.000
predicted_HR	0.094	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.006
predicted_R	0.472	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.005
predicted_SO	0.662	-0.001

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.3333	0.2308	0.0256	0.0256	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.60	42	-	162.000	49.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	19.000	11.000	27.000	0.3025	0.3523	0.4753	0.3025	0.0309	0.1235	0.0679	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8810
predicted_AVG	0.2557
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.9920
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3034
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3330
predicted_SLG	0.3924
predicted_SO	0.6930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3100	0.2370	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.8810	3.8668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2557	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2620	0.2270	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9920	0.9612	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3034	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4750	0.4614	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3330	0.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3924	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.6930	0.6634	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 5

All-history rows before 20260518: 5

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.157	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.176	0.000	0.074	0.250
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.314	0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.467	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.668	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.247	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.046	0.000
predicted_H	0.677	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.019	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.206	-0.053
predicted_R	0.253	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.062
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.20	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
season	0.60	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6560
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.2586
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.3800
predicted_SO	0.9120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1110	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6560	3.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1730	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8030	0.6682	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1530	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2586	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3790	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3680	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3800	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9120	0.9768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2674

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	4.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.233	0.250
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.045	1.000	0.955	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.155	0.250
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.295	1.000	-0.295	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.500	0.093	0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.841	0.000	1.159	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.841	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.058	0.013
predicted_AB	3.909	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	-0.030
predicted_H	0.906	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	-0.012

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.000
predicted_3B	0.058	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.380	0.001
predicted_H	0.917	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.040	0.000
predicted_HR	0.062	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.012
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.909

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1795	0.2381	0.2564	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.60	44	-	172.000	46.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	13.000	18.000	18.000	37.000	0.2674	0.3454	0.4070	0.2674	0.0233	0.0756	0.1047	0.2151

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0770
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.2374
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3028
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.3695
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1710	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0770	0.0581	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9090	3.9090	3.9090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2374	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3370	0.3794	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9280	0.9056	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.3310	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2700	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3695	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8410	0.8110	0.8287	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 27

All-history rows before 20260518: 27

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.185	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.185	1.000	0.815	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.052	0.250
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	2.000	-0.370	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	0.370	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.750	-0.060	-0.500
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.000	-0.087	0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.185	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.171	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.023
predicted_H	0.556	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.206	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.225	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.301	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.077

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	-0.017
predicted_BB	0.394	0.001
predicted_H	0.563	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.206	0.000
predicted_HR	0.066	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.060
predicted_R	0.230	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.017
predicted_SO	0.921	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.1667	0.4118	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.0833
last_10	0.20	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1429	0.3333	0.3214	0.1429	0.0357	0.1071	0.1786	0.2857
season	0.60	27	-	86.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	10.000	27.000	0.1977	0.3100	0.3372	0.1977	0.0233	0.1047	0.1163	0.3140

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.1470
predicted_AVG	0.1952
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HBP	0.2060
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3220
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1020	0.1304	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0370	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1850	3.1470	3.1705	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1952	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.4300	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6140	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2060	0.2060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2300	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3340	0.3007	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7980	0.9227	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260516_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Sam Haggerty (664059) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.143	2.000	1.857	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.691	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.022
predicted_H	0.470	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.172	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	-0.008

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.691	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.047
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000
predicted_H	0.476	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.055
predicted_R	0.204	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.175	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.241	-0.082
predicted_SO	0.823	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.20	7	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.0667	0.3333
season	0.60	7	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.2000	0.0667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.2380
predicted_AVG	0.2242
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.3229
predicted_SO	0.8010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1010	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2380	2.6913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2242	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2510	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.7260	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0680	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2940	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.2620	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3229	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8010	0.8247	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260427_NYY@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664059
playerID	664059
playerName	Sam Haggerty
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 32

All-history rows before 20260518: 32

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2661

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	0.969	1.000
predicted_AB	3.406	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	4.000	0.594	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	-0.016	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	-0.086	0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.500	0.310	0.250
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	0.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.001
predicted_3B	0.026	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.505	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	-0.021
predicted_H	0.760	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.112	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.505	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.022
predicted_BB	0.355	0.001
predicted_H	0.769	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.114	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.011
predicted_R	0.573	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.866	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.4103	0.2051	0.0513	0.1026	0.0769	0.3333
season	0.60	32	-	109.000	29.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	17.000	12.000	26.000	0.2661	0.3361	0.4404	0.2661	0.0275	0.1193	0.1101	0.2385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2530
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.6590
predicted_AVG	0.2413
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.8830
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.3023
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.4282
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2530	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0190	0.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.6590	3.5052	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2413	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3220	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8830	0.7596	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1310	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3023	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.6050	0.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4190	0.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4282	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.9540	0.8677	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_TEX@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Andrew McCutchen (457705) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 11

All-history rows before 20260518: 11

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.850	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.818	3.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.333	-0.258	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	-0.074	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.333	-0.419	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.993	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	0.001
predicted_H	0.747	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	-0.020

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.993	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.002
predicted_BB	0.275	0.001
predicted_H	0.757	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.013	0.000
predicted_HR	0.086	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.003
predicted_R	0.387	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.010
predicted_SO	0.887	-0.002

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=27.0, weight=0.189, BvP AVG=0.296)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.20	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2414	0.3125	0.3793	0.2414	0.0345	0.1035	0.1035	0.3103
season	0.60	11	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2581	0.3235	0.4194	0.2581	0.0323	0.0968	0.0968	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3070
predicted_AVG	0.2506
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3126
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.3876
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1540	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8500	3.3070	2.9930	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2506	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2770	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8290	0.7472	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0960	0.0850	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3126	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4080	0.3778	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3310	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3876	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8440	0.8887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	457705
playerID	457705
playerName	Andrew McCutchen
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

MacKenzie Gore (669022) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 9

All-history rows before 20260518: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.444	1.000	-0.444	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	1.000	0.333	2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.222	3.000	0.778	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.178	8.000	-0.078	-2.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.889	5.000	-1.889	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	17.000	26.000	11.000	23.000	4.000	5.6667	1.3704	0.6296	0.9630	0.4074	0.8518	0.1482
last_10	0.35	9	48.000	24.000	38.000	22.000	53.000	6.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.7917	0.4583	1.1042	0.1250
season	0.20	9	48.000	24.000	38.000	22.000	53.000	6.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.7917	0.4583	1.1042	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1840
predicted_ER	2.8780
predicted_ERA	4.8572
predicted_H	4.8640
predicted_HR	0.7250
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.0630
predicted_WHIP	1.3215

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1840	2.0918	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.8780	2.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8572	4.8572	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.8640	4.9321	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7250	0.8627	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.0630	4.5306	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3215	1.3215	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669022
playerID	669022
playerName	MacKenzie Gore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	3.000	-0.278	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.444	3.000	-0.444	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.139	0.000	0.061	1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	0.000	0.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	2.3389
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0270
predicted_WHIP	0.8488

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3380	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3320	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3389	2.3389	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7480	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0270	1.0114	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8488	0.8488	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	-0.144	-1.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_ER	0.4160
predicted_ERA	3.2735
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8370
predicted_WHIP	1.1142

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3770	0.1542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4160	0.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2735	3.2735	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8970	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8370	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1142	1.1142	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: COL

Braxton Fulford (690924) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 0

All-history rows before 20260518: 0

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.177	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.537	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.396	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.876	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.933	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.537	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.396	-
predicted_H	0.876	-
predicted_HR	0.152	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.522	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.001
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.018
predicted_H	0.884	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.003
predicted_R	0.464	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.514	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.006
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.000
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.002
predicted_H	0.862	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.032	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.007
predicted_R	0.444	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.492	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.010
predicted_SO	0.926	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2440
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3051
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3954
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1770	0.1810	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5370	3.8010	3.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2440	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3960	0.2820	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8760	0.9270	0.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1520	0.1220	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3051	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4910	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5220	0.4720	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.3954	0.4288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.8530	0.9204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 28

All-history rows before 20260518: 28

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1596

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	4.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.500	0.090	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.536	2.000	0.464	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.500	0.010	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.107	0.000	0.893	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.223	0.750	0.027	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.321	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.321	1.000	-1.321	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	1.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.389	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.013
predicted_H	0.565	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.518	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.155	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.264	-0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.389	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.342	-0.002
predicted_H	0.551	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.006	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.005
predicted_R	0.497	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.148	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.019
predicted_SO	1.272	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	34.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.1471	0.2368	0.2059	0.1471	0.0000	0.0294	0.1177	0.3824
season	0.60	28	-	94.000	15.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	10.000	37.000	0.1596	0.2404	0.2234	0.1596	0.0106	0.0319	0.1064	0.3936

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4390
predicted_AVG	0.1712
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2444
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.1620
predicted_SLG	0.2536
predicted_SO	1.1740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1530	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.4390	3.3885	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1712	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.3240	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5890	0.5650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2444	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5480	0.5185	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1620	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2536	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3210	1.1740	1.2645	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Sterlin Thompson (694514) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 1

All-history rows before 20260518: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.030
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.134	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.046	0.046
predicted_H	0.585	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.081	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	-0.023

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.134	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.040
predicted_BB	0.046	-0.000
predicted_H	0.570	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.194	-0.083
predicted_R	0.077	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.285	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.265	-0.094
predicted_SO	0.983	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.60	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3594
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1620	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2520	0.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.8270	0.5847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1090	0.0772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4380	0.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.4210	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3594	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8730	0.9766	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	694514
playerID	694514
playerName	Sterlin Thompson
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2339

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	4.000	-1.100	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.500	-0.234	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.725	2.000	-0.725	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.500	-0.007	-0.167
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.500	-0.315	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.194	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.476	-0.049
predicted_H	0.735	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.421	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	-0.022

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.194	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.003
predicted_H	0.717	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.009
predicted_R	0.403	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.323	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.041
predicted_SO	0.858	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3421	0.4000	0.2857	0.0000	0.2000	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.60	40	-	124.000	29.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	17.000	21.000	35.000	0.2339	0.3401	0.3145	0.2339	0.0081	0.0887	0.1694	0.2823

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3350
predicted_AVG	0.2542
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3334
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.3488
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2170	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.3350	3.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2542	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4030	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8480	0.7353	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0320	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3334	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.4140	0.4206	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3940	0.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3488	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8190	0.8526	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.400	-0.314	-0.400
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.250	-0.506	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.550	2.000	-0.550	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	1.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.995	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.015
predicted_H	1.005	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.216	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.599	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.482	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.431	-0.119

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.995	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.020
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.002
predicted_H	0.981	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.043	0.000
predicted_HR	0.211	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.023
predicted_R	0.574	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.398	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.440	0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.20	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.4634	0.2927	0.0488	0.0976	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.60	40	-	160.000	40.000	8.000	11.000	18.000	26.000	12.000	62.000	0.2500	0.3143	0.5062	0.2500	0.0688	0.1125	0.0750	0.3875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9880
predicted_AVG	0.2650
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.2260
predicted_OBP	0.3181
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.4370
predicted_SLG	0.4816
predicted_SO	1.2590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1810	0.1923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9880	3.9951	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2640	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0570	1.0054	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2260	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3181	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5250	0.5991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4370	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4816	0.4818	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5500	1.2590	1.4315	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 41

All-history rows before 20260518: 41

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2067

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	0.780	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.659	4.000	-1.659	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.293	0.250
predicted_BB	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.756	1.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.250	0.412	0.417
predicted_R	0.268	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.268	0.000	0.732	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.287	0.250	0.713	0.750
predicted_SO	1.049	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.049	1.000	-1.049	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.659	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.195	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.268	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.049	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.598	-0.061
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.001
predicted_H	0.742	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.287	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.986	-0.063

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.598	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.028
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.001
predicted_H	0.723	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.031
predicted_R	0.275	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.261	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.283	-0.026
predicted_SO	0.993	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2424	0.2571	0.2727	0.2424	0.0000	0.0909	0.0303	0.2424
season	0.60	41	-	150.000	31.000	9.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	8.000	43.000	0.2067	0.2547	0.2867	0.2067	0.0067	0.0733	0.0533	0.2867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5090
predicted_AVG	0.2287
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2728
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3093
predicted_SO	0.8940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.1900	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6590	3.5090	3.5984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2287	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1950	0.1930	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8030	0.7416	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2680	0.3160	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2920	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0490	0.8940	0.9864	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 30

All-history rows before 20260518: 30

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2921

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.7170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	2.967	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.967	4.000	0.033	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.500	0.041	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.500	-0.010	-0.167
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.500	-0.150	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.567	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.567	1.000	0.433	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	2.967	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.567	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.061	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.040	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.006
predicted_H	0.819	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.077	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.321	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	0.009

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.040	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.037
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.001
predicted_H	0.799	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.037
predicted_R	0.307	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.508	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.451	-0.032
predicted_SO	0.580	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=1.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.3571	0.3571	0.4286	0.3571	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.20	10	-	31.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3548	0.3939	0.6774	0.3548	0.0645	0.3226	0.0645	0.1613
season	0.60	30	-	89.000	26.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	9.000	6.000	17.000	0.2921	0.3438	0.4831	0.2921	0.0225	0.1798	0.0674	0.1910

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0510
predicted_AB	3.1600
predicted_AVG	0.3001
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.3443
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.6120
predicted_SLG	0.4835
predicted_SO	0.5910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.2150	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0510	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9670	3.1600	3.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3001	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1840	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9480	0.8191	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0880	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3443	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3550	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.6120	0.5302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4835	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5670	0.5910	0.5761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 34

All-history rows before 20260518: 34

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	3.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.089	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	-0.054	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	0.441	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	2.000	1.559	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.667	0.992	0.667
predicted_SO	1.265	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.265	1.000	-1.265	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	1.265	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.615	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	-0.007
predicted_H	0.841	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.553	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.437	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.208	-0.057

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.002
predicted_H	0.820	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.020	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.004
predicted_R	0.529	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.419	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.006
predicted_SO	1.216	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2222	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2286	0.2821	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.60	34	-	123.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	15.000	19.000	10.000	43.000	0.2439	0.3037	0.3415	0.2439	0.0163	0.1220	0.0813	0.3496

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2322
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2871
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3365
predicted_SO	1.1220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1690	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.5630	3.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2322	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.2770	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8270	0.8409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0660	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2871	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.5430	0.5527	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4330	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3365	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2650	1.1220	1.2083	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2733

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	1.000	-0.186	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.273	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.023	1.000	-1.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.600	-0.352	-0.600
predicted_R	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.442	2.000	-0.442	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.667	-0.429	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.698	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.698	0.000	-0.698	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.442	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.490	-
predicted_SO	0.698	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.018
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.004
predicted_AB	3.699	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	0.041
predicted_H	1.068	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.002

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.016
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.003
predicted_H	1.041	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.113	0.000
predicted_HR	0.145	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.035
predicted_R	0.493	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.443	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.704	0.004

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.3750	0.5238	0.6875	0.3750	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.1944
season	0.60	43	-	161.000	44.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	17.000	30.000	0.2733	0.3516	0.4286	0.2733	0.0311	0.1366	0.1056	0.1863

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.2969
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3923
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.4902
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.2300	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0130	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.6340	3.6991	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.4960	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0790	1.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3923	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4420	0.6210	0.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4670	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4900	0.4902	0.4901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6980	0.7020	0.6996	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jose Quintana (500779) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.286	3.000	-1.286	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.143	2.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.571	5.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.657	4.000	0.343	1.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	2.286	2.000	3.714	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	10.000	25.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	3.4615	1.2692	0.3846	0.9615	0.3077	0.5000	0.1538
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	15.000	32.000	16.000	16.000	5.000	3.9706	1.4118	0.4412	0.9412	0.4706	0.4706	0.1471
season	0.20	7	34.000	15.000	32.000	16.000	16.000	5.000	3.9706	1.4118	0.4412	0.9412	0.4706	0.4706	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8510
predicted_ER	2.1980
predicted_ERA	3.8420
predicted_H	4.8860
predicted_HR	0.7360
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.5200
predicted_WHIP	1.3087

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8510	1.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.1980	1.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8420	3.8420	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.8860	4.9460	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7360	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.5200	4.8246	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3087	1.3087	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.97
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	73
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	43
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260513_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	500779
playerID	500779
playerName	Jose Quintana
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.154	1.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.946	1.000	-0.846	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.923	1.000	-0.923	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.6774	0.0968
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	4.000	13.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.6190	0.3333	0.7619	0.0476
season	0.20	13	28.100	4.000	15.000	8.000	25.000	1.000	1.2706	0.8118	0.1412	0.5294	0.2823	0.8823	0.0353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_ER	0.5840
predicted_ERA	3.0544
predicted_H	1.3320
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4520
predicted_WHIP	1.1357

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6230	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5840	0.2634	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0544	3.0544	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3320	1.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4520	1.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1357	1.1357	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.611	2.000	-0.611	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.067	1.200	0.033	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-1.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1500	0.6000	1.3500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6154	0.5385	1.4615	0.0769
season	0.20	18	22.000	10.000	22.000	11.000	26.000	2.000	4.0909	1.5000	0.4546	1.0000	0.5000	1.1818	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_ER	0.4390
predicted_ERA	2.9660
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5190
predicted_WHIP	1.1884

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6160	0.2614	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4390	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9660	2.9660	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9680	0.9864	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0513	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5190	0.6446	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1884	1.1884	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.412	0.000	-1.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.000	0.124	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.9375	0.7500	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	11.000	16.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	9.9000	2.3000	1.1000	1.6000	0.7000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	18.000	13.000	24.000	11.000	16.000	2.000	6.5000	1.9444	0.7222	1.3333	0.6111	0.8889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_ER	0.5630
predicted_ERA	5.0711
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9650
predicted_WHIP	1.5818

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5140	0.2074	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5630	0.8237	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0711	5.0711	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0680	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9650	0.3893	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5818	1.5818	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_ARI@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260518_TOR@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Season quality guardrail cap enforced after calibration. Production confidence governor cap enforced.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TOR 3 - 4 NYY	NYY	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TOR 3 - 4 NYY	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TOR	5-5	0.500	4.10	3.30	8	2W	average	strong
Home NYY	3-7	0.300	3.70	4.30	-6	2L	average	average

Season Run Differential

Team	Record	Win %	Run Diff	RD/Game	Available
Away TOR	21-25	0.457	-11	-0.239	True
Home NYY	28-19	0.596	68	1.447	True
Signal	-	-	1.686	1.895	applied=True

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target NYY	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TOR	33	8	4	0	2	3	7
Player finalized NYY	32	9	4	0	3	7	9
Player model fractional TOR	31.39	6.50	3.95	0.76	3.10	3.34	7.07
Player model fractional NYY	31.44	7.43	4.67	1.18	4.09	5.48	8.31
Simulation box TOR	35	8	3	1	3	4	5
Simulation box NYY	30	6	4	1	4	1	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TOR	Starter	Patrick Corbin	5	2	6	4	0	3.92	1.39	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Braydon Fisher	1	1	0	1	1	4.53	1.21	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1	0	0	0	0	2.35	1.43	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	0	1	1	0	3.31	1.38	True
Away TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	0	1	0	0	0	4.79	1.55	True
Home NYY	Starter	Ryan Weathers	5.20	3	5	6	4	3.51	1.13	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1	0	0	1	0	5.65	1.42	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1	0	0	1	0	3.06	1.22	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Brent Headrick	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.83	1.23	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	0.20	0	0	0	0	3.39	1.22	True
Home NYY	Middle Reliever	Camilo Doval	0	0	0	0	0	3.72	1.16	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TOR

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 26

All-history rows before 20260518: 26

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	0.154	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	-0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.000	-0.068	0.200
predicted_R	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	1.000	0.192	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.876	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.402	-0.021
predicted_H	0.675	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.000
predicted_R	0.395	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.278	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000
predicted_SO	0.798	-0.010

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.876	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.003
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.003
predicted_H	0.663	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.041	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.006
predicted_R	0.383	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000
predicted_SO	0.804	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.1351	0.2195	0.1622	0.1351	0.0000	0.0270	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.60	26	-	100.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	21.000	0.1800	0.2679	0.2900	0.1800	0.0200	0.0700	0.1100	0.2100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8380
predicted_AVG	0.1738
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2546
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.2621
predicted_SO	0.7830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.1460	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.8380	3.8759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1738	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.3700	0.4024	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6670	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2546	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.4710	0.3945	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2740	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2621	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	0.7830	0.7983	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1864

Diff (system - data): 0.0186

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.0186. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.520	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	1.529	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.183	0.000	-0.183	0.000
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.288	0.000	-0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.520	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.760	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.533	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.025	0.025
predicted_H	0.643	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.288	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.237	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.761	0.001

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.013
predicted_BB	0.025	-0.000
predicted_H	0.631	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.007	0.000
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.184	-0.022
predicted_R	0.280	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.230	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.295	-0.011
predicted_SO	0.766	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	0.1944	0.1944	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.60	25	-	88.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	0.2045	0.2045	0.3068	0.2046	0.0114	0.0682	0.2159

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.1917
predicted_BB	0.0670
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2071
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.3059
predicted_SO	0.7630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2140	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5200	3.5550	3.5332	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1917	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0670	0.0252	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6820	0.6433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2070	0.2071	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.3020	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2500	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7600	0.7630	0.7611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2331

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.705	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.705	4.000	0.295	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.477	0.000	0.523	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.864	0.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.119	0.200
predicted_R	0.523	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.523	0.000	-0.523	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.614	0.000	-0.614	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	1.205	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.205	1.000	-0.205	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.705	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.477	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.523	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	1.205	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.696	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	0.000
predicted_H	0.756	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.525	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	1.192	-0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.011
predicted_BB	0.474	-0.003
predicted_H	0.743	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.008
predicted_R	0.509	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.474	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.030
predicted_SO	1.200	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1111	0.2273	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2222	0.3095	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.60	44	-	163.000	38.000	5.000	10.000	27.000	23.000	21.000	53.000	0.2331	0.3189	0.4479	0.2331	0.0614	0.1656	0.1288	0.3251

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6820
predicted_AVG	0.2118
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.2996
predicted_R	0.5280
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.3820
predicted_SO	1.1730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1710	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7050	3.6820	3.6956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2118	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4770	0.4770	0.4770	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7800	0.7564	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2996	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5230	0.5280	0.5250	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5020	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2050	1.1730	1.1919	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 18

All-history rows before 20260518: 18

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	4.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.250	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	-0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.249	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.249	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.770	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.645	-0.022
predicted_H	0.399	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.249	0.000
predicted_SO	1.170	0.003

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.770	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	-0.024
predicted_BB	0.641	-0.004
predicted_H	0.392	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.024	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.006
predicted_R	0.283	-0.009
predicted_RBI	0.275	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.212	-0.037
predicted_SO	1.178	0.008

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3333	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.2500	0.5833
last_10	0.20	10	-	23.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	12.000	0.0870	0.3226	0.1304	0.0870	0.0870	0.3478	0.5217
season	0.60	18	-	48.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	21.000	0.1250	0.3000	0.1667	0.1250	0.1042	0.2500	0.4375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.1652
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_H	0.4890
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3092
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.2492
predicted_SO	1.1760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1460	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	2.9600	2.7703	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1652	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.6050	0.6451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4890	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0320	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.3180	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3460	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2490	0.2492	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1760	1.1702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2874

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	1.289	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.500	0.313	0.100
predicted_BB	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.067	2.000	1.933	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.225	0.100
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	1.250	0.217	-0.650
predicted_SO	0.489	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.489	0.000	-0.489	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.489	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.489	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.707	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.487	-0.002
predicted_H	0.852	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.496	0.007

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.003
predicted_H	0.836	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.008
predicted_R	0.590	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.444	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.005
predicted_SO	0.499	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2727	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	0.1351	0.2326	0.2162	0.1351	0.0270	0.1081	0.1351	0.1081
season	0.60	45	-	167.000	48.000	7.000	3.000	20.000	27.000	22.000	22.000	0.2874	0.3750	0.3832	0.2874	0.0180	0.1198	0.1317	0.1317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7020
predicted_AVG	0.2343
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.3232
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.3473
predicted_SO	0.5060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1040	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7020	3.7073	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2343	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4890	0.4840	0.4869	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8680	0.8515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1030	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3232	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6210	0.6086	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4680	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3473	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4890	0.5060	0.4960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2462

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.095	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.095	4.000	0.905	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.504	0.500
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	1.000	2.238	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.421	0.500
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.250	0.304	0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.095	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.171	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	0.016
predicted_H	0.752	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.000
predicted_SO	0.951	-0.049

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.003
predicted_H	0.739	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.143	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.037
predicted_R	0.482	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.458	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.077
predicted_SO	0.957	0.006

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.6250	0.3750	0.0625	0.2500	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.5333	0.3000	0.0667	0.2333	0.2000	0.2333
season	0.60	21	-	65.000	16.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	8.000	21.000	0.2462	0.3288	0.4462	0.2462	0.0615	0.1538	0.1231	0.3231

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3020
predicted_AVG	0.2714
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_OBP	0.3549
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.5620
predicted_SLG	0.4691
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.1120	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0950	3.3020	3.1705	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2714	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.4260	0.3974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8960	0.7524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1780	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3549	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.5350	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5620	0.4718	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4691	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8660	0.9511	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 44

All-history rows before 20260518: 44

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2841

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.136	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	0.000	-1.136	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	0.194	0.500
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.000	-0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.341	1.000	-0.341	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.136	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	0.341	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.946	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.147	0.011
predicted_H	0.905	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	0.417	0.076

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.946	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.146	-0.001
predicted_H	0.889	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.005	0.000
predicted_HR	0.052	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.031
predicted_R	0.372	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.228	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.018
predicted_SO	0.420	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2750	0.3421	0.2632	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.60	44	-	176.000	50.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	0.2841	0.3060	0.3920	0.2841	0.0114	0.0682	0.0341	0.0852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8690
predicted_AVG	0.2547
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2841
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.3452
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2950	0.1730	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8690	3.9464	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2547	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1360	0.1630	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9850	0.9052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2841	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4130	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2560	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3452	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3410	0.5270	0.4170	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Myles Straw (664702) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 17

All-history rows before 20260518: 17

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.882	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.882	2.000	1.118	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	-0.118	0.250
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.112	0.500
predicted_SO	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.994	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	-0.022
predicted_H	0.724	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.473	0.061

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	2.994	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	-0.032
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.003
predicted_H	0.711	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.009	0.000
predicted_HR	0.063	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.014
predicted_R	0.525	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.207	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.346	-0.046
predicted_SO	0.476	0.003

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3571	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.20	10	-	30.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3429	0.4333	0.2667	0.0333	0.1000	0.1333	0.1667
season	0.60	17	-	49.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3684	0.3878	0.2857	0.0204	0.0612	0.1429	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2040
predicted_AVG	0.2688
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3386
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.3923
predicted_SO	0.5880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1620	0.1334	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0014	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8820	3.2040	2.9944	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2688	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3480	0.3897	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8610	0.7237	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3386	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.4560	0.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2560	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3923	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4120	0.5880	0.4734	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664702
playerID	664702
playerName	Myles Straw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 40

All-history rows before 20260518: 40

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	1.000	-0.025	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	3.000	0.275	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.667	-0.005	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	2.000	0.050	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.750	-0.081	-0.500
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	2.000	0.475	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.484	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	1.667	0.577	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.484	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.014
predicted_3B	0.042	0.017
predicted_AB	3.699	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.020
predicted_H	0.917	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.030	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.532	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.484	0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.030
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.003
predicted_H	0.900	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.122	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.037
predicted_R	0.525	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.516	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.423	-0.061
predicted_SO	0.769	0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.7059	0.2941	0.0588	0.3529	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.3333	0.4146	0.5278	0.3333	0.0278	0.1667	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.60	40	-	149.000	38.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	15.000	21.000	15.000	30.000	0.2550	0.3313	0.4228	0.2550	0.0336	0.1007	0.1007	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0680
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2732
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0300
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3530
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.4843
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2340	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0680	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.6600	3.6987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4240	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0000	0.9167	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0300	0.0300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.5650	0.5412	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5790	0.5320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4840	0.4843	0.4841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7840	0.7638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Patrick Corbin (571578) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 7

All-history rows before 20260518: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.429	1.000	-1.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.143	3.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.429	9.000	-1.429	-5.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.671	4.100	0.329	0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.143	1.000	2.857	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	10.000	28.000	8.000	13.000	1.000	3.6486	1.4595	0.4054	1.1351	0.3243	0.5270	0.0405
last_10	0.35	7	34.100	15.000	38.000	10.000	22.000	3.000	3.9320	1.3981	0.4369	1.1068	0.2913	0.6408	0.0874
season	0.20	7	34.100	15.000	38.000	10.000	22.000	3.000	3.9320	1.3981	0.4369	1.1068	0.2913	0.6408	0.0874

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7110
predicted_ER	2.1780
predicted_ERA	3.9199
predicted_H	5.2460
predicted_HR	0.4220
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.5960
predicted_WHIP	1.3915

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7110	0.8109	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1780	2.0844	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9199	3.9199	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.2460	4.5905	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4220	0.7261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.0000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.5960	4.8606	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3915	1.3915	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	6
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.93
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	571578
playerID	571578
playerName	Patrick Corbin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.391	1.000	0.609	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	7.000	6.000	10.000	1.000	5.0625	1.2188	0.5625	0.6562	0.5625	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	23	24.200	9.000	17.000	10.000	23.000	2.000	3.2838	1.0946	0.3649	0.6892	0.4054	0.9324	0.0811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_ER	0.5030
predicted_ERA	4.5285
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8690
predicted_WHIP	1.2073

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4180	0.7460	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5030	0.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5285	4.5285	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7900	0.9084	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0589	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8690	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2073	1.2073	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.28
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.864	2.000	-0.864	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	2.000	0.041	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.545	2.000	-1.545	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.0000	1.6667	0.0000	1.0000	0.6667	0.8333
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	11.000	6.000	15.000	0.8438	1.5938	0.0938	1.0312	0.5625	1.4062
season	0.20	22	23.200	1.000	19.000	9.000	34.000	0.3803	1.1831	0.0423	0.8028	0.3803	1.4366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.2800
predicted_ERA	2.3494
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1260
predicted_WHIP	1.4269

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5070	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2800	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3494	2.3494	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0240	0.4424	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1260	0.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4269	1.4269	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.9286	1.7143	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	1.0000	0.3333	1.0000
season	0.20	22	21.100	4.000	17.000	7.000	14.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7969	0.3281	0.6562

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_ER	0.3680
predicted_ERA	3.3118
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9120
predicted_WHIP	1.3838

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4210	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3680	0.1550	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3118	3.3118	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9630	0.9844	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9120	0.9629	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3838	1.3838	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.843	0.200	-0.843	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.619	2.000	-1.619	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.7143	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	14.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.0000	1.7778	0.5556	1.5556	0.2222	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	21	19.100	13.000	28.000	8.000	34.000	3.000	6.0517	1.8621	0.6724	1.4483	0.4138	1.7586	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	4.7950
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7020
predicted_WHIP	1.5536

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2030	0.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3320	0.7255	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7950	4.7950	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7020	0.2884	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5536	1.5536	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260515_TOR@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: NYY

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 43

All-history rows before 20260518: 43

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2346

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	3.000	-0.767	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.667	-0.235	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.442	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.442	2.000	-0.442	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	2.000	-0.884	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.800	-0.317	-0.800
predicted_R	0.465	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	1.000	0.535	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.372	0.000	0.628	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.667	-0.364	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.209	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.209	1.000	-0.209	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.442	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.209	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.773	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.001
predicted_H	0.943	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.465	-0.000
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	0.013

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.773	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.445	0.004
predicted_H	0.947	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	0.000
predicted_HR	0.057	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.024
predicted_R	0.469	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.362	-0.049
predicted_SO	1.212	-0.011

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.5789	0.4210	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.20	10	-	38.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.3947	0.2895	0.0000	0.0790	0.1053	0.3947
season	0.60	43	-	162.000	38.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	20.000	19.000	52.000	0.2346	0.3169	0.3642	0.2346	0.0247	0.0988	0.1173	0.3210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2774
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3536
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.4107
predicted_SO	1.2420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.3050	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.7830	3.7735	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4420	0.4390	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0490	0.9432	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3536	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.4640	0.4646	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3790	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4107	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2090	1.2420	1.2225	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 38

All-history rows before 20260518: 38

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2958

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	5.000	-0.737	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.200	-0.296	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	1.000	-1.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.200	-0.402	-0.200
predicted_R	0.868	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.868	1.000	0.132	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.576	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.655	0.800	-0.655	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.079	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.079	1.000	-0.079	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.868	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.576	-
predicted_SO	1.079	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.791	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.567	-0.065
predicted_H	0.988	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.080	-
predicted_HR	0.329	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.830	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.596	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.576	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	-0.017

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.791	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.005
predicted_BB	0.572	0.005
predicted_H	0.992	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.332	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.004
predicted_R	0.837	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.601	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.580	0.004
predicted_SO	1.053	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.088

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2381	0.3333	0.5238	0.2381	0.0952	0.0952	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.20	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.5500	0.2250	0.1000	0.1250	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.60	38	-	142.000	42.000	9.000	14.000	29.000	33.000	24.000	41.000	0.2958	0.4024	0.6549	0.2958	0.0986	0.2042	0.1690	0.2887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2662
predicted_BB	0.4720
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.0800
predicted_HR	0.3410
predicted_OBP	0.3551
predicted_R	0.7740
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.5757
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.1690	0.2094	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7370	3.8700	3.7910	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2662	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.4720	0.5671	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0300	0.9884	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0800	0.0800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3410	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3551	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8680	0.7740	0.8298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6200	0.5962	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5760	0.5757	0.5759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0790	1.0370	1.0620	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 45

All-history rows before 20260518: 45

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.644	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.644	2.000	0.356	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.262	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.689	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.689	3.000	-0.689	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.044	0.000	-0.044	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.956	1.000	-0.956	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.800	-0.374	-0.800
predicted_R	0.644	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.644	2.000	-0.644	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.500	-0.457	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.578	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.578	0.000	0.422	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.644	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.689	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.644	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.578	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.062	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.675	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.677	-0.011
predicted_H	0.772	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.072	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.651	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.596	0.018

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.009
predicted_BB	0.683	0.006
predicted_H	0.775	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	0.000
predicted_HR	0.073	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.656	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.504	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.001
predicted_SO	0.591	-0.005

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=27.0, weight=0.189, BvP AVG=0.407)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 45

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.20	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.1944	0.3556	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.1111	0.2500	0.1667
season	0.60	45	-	164.000	43.000	11.000	3.000	5.000	28.000	29.000	31.000	26.000	0.2622	0.3737	0.4573	0.2622	0.0305	0.1707	0.1890	0.1585

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.0550
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.2199
predicted_BB	0.6610
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3344
predicted_R	0.6610
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.3646
predicted_SO	0.6220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2040	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0550	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6440	3.7190	3.6749	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2199	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6890	0.6610	0.6775	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8180	0.7721	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3344	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6440	0.6610	0.6510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5280	0.4998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3646	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5780	0.6220	0.5961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	45
Season rows before report date	45
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	45
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

J.C. Escarra (641555) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 13

All-history rows before 20260518: 13

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	2.000	-0.385	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.152	0.333
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.234	0.000	0.099	0.333
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.295	0.000	0.038	0.333
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.067	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.428	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.013
predicted_H	0.615	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.330	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.755	-0.014

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.428	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.026
predicted_BB	0.247	0.002
predicted_H	0.617	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.011	0.000
predicted_HR	0.035	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.031
predicted_R	0.332	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.016
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1333	0.2353	0.2000	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667
last_10	0.20	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2286	0.2703	0.3714	0.2286	0.1429	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.60	13	-	44.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.1818	0.2340	0.2955	0.1818	0.1364	0.0682	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.5140
predicted_AVG	0.2058
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2663
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.3320
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2180	0.2266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0460	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.5140	3.4283	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2058	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2710	0.2444	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7230	0.6148	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0440	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2663	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3720	0.3295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4350	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3320	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.7260	0.7546	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	641555
playerID	641555
playerName	J.C. Escarra
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 4

All-history rows before 20260518: 4

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.250	3.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.667	-0.222	-0.667
predicted_BB	1.944	0.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.750	2.000	-1.750	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.000	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.562	0.800	-0.562	-0.800
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	3.000	-0.750	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	1.944	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.697	0.197
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	1.710	-0.234
predicted_H	0.526	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.395	-0.000
predicted_R	0.310	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	0.006

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	2.697	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.041
predicted_BB	1.725	0.015
predicted_H	0.528	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.018	0.000
predicted_HR	0.048	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.509	0.114
predicted_R	0.312	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.349	-0.025
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	2.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	4	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	0.2222	0.5625	0.3333	0.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333
last_10	0.20	4	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	0.2222	0.5625	0.3333	0.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333
season	0.60	4	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	0.2222	0.5625	0.3333	0.2222	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.2610
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	1.0400
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3947
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.6420
predicted_SLG	0.3738
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2270	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2610	2.6973	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.9440	1.0400	1.7097	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.7710	0.5258	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0680	0.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3947	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.4010	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.6420	0.4405	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3738	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8550	0.8387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683011
playerID	683011
playerName	Anthony Volpe
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 16

All-history rows before 20260518: 16

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.600	-0.373	-0.600
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.586	0.500	-0.586	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.574	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.065	0.003
predicted_AB	3.689	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	-0.011
predicted_H	1.087	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.104	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.000
predicted_R	0.727	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.565	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.574	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.984	-0.016

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.689	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.002
predicted_BB	0.431	0.004
predicted_H	1.091	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.104	0.000
predicted_HR	0.236	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.009
predicted_R	0.733	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.011
predicted_SO	0.976	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.353)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.4211	0.5217	0.8421	0.4210	0.1053	0.2105	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.20	10	-	39.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.6667	0.3333	0.0769	0.1538	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.60	16	-	58.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	12.000	7.000	16.000	0.2759	0.3731	0.5862	0.2759	0.0690	0.1552	0.1207	0.2759

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0710
predicted_AB	3.7420
predicted_AVG	0.2940
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HBP	0.1040
predicted_HR	0.2380
predicted_OBP	0.3776
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	0.5730
predicted_SLG	0.5736
predicted_SO	0.9560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1890	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0710	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6600	3.7420	3.6895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.4080	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1000	1.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1040	0.1040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2380	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3776	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.6850	0.7266	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5730	0.5647	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5740	0.5736	0.5739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9560	0.9842	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Max Schuemann (680474) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 3

All-history rows before 20260518: 3

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	0.033	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.500	-0.030	-0.167
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.333	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.333	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.667	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.423	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.586	-0.081
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.414	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.008
predicted_H	0.752	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.082	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.423	0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	-0.024

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.586	0.000
predicted_3B	0.002	0.000
predicted_AB	3.414	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.038
predicted_BB	0.328	0.003
predicted_H	0.754	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.022	0.000
predicted_HR	0.067	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.032
predicted_R	0.083	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.030
predicted_SO	0.968	-0.009

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.20	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.60	3	-	10.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3250
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6750
predicted_AVG	0.2590
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3208
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.4234
predicted_SO	0.8990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6670	0.3250	0.5863	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6750	3.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2590	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2980	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9520	0.7518	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0860	0.0661	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3208	0.3210	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3480	0.0821	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4330	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4230	0.4234	0.4231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8990	0.9762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	2
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680474
playerID	680474
playerName	Max Schuemann
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 47

All-history rows before 20260518: 47

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2663

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.170	0.000	0.830	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.596	4.000	-0.596	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.400	0.667
predicted_BB	0.766	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.766	1.000	0.234	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.064	0.000	-0.064	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.957	0.000	1.043	2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.340	0.000	0.660	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.401	0.200	0.349	0.550
predicted_R	0.809	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.809	0.000	0.191	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.638	0.000	1.362	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.484	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.598	0.000	1.402	2.000
predicted_SO	1.234	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.234	1.000	-1.234	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.596	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.766	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.809	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.484	-
predicted_SO	1.234	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.629	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.747	-0.019
predicted_H	0.910	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.206	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.749	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.484	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	-0.052

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.001	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.753	0.007
predicted_H	0.913	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.209	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.003
predicted_R	0.755	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.012
predicted_SO	1.172	-0.010

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 47

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.20	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.3784	0.2432	0.0270	0.0541	0.2162	0.3243
season	0.60	47	-	169.000	45.000	8.000	16.000	30.000	38.000	36.000	58.000	0.2663	0.4010	0.5976	0.2663	0.0947	0.1775	0.2130	0.3432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2589
predicted_BB	0.7190
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2150
predicted_OBP	0.3831
predicted_R	0.6640
predicted_RBI	0.4340
predicted_SLG	0.4845
predicted_SO	1.1090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1700	0.1820	0.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0008	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5960	3.6760	3.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2589	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7660	0.7190	0.7466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9520	0.9097	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2150	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3831	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8090	0.6640	0.7491	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4340	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4840	0.4845	0.4842	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2340	1.1090	1.1824	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	47
Season rows before report date	47
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	47
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Amed Rosario (642708) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 21

All-history rows before 20260518: 21

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	1.000	0.905	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	4.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	0.225	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	1.095	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.171	0.250
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.500	0.243	0.250
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.030
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.341	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	0.013
predicted_H	0.815	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.492	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000
predicted_SO	0.770	0.056

3. team_form_snapshot

Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.341	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.025
predicted_BB	0.301	0.003
predicted_H	0.818	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.008	0.000
predicted_HR	0.119	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.024
predicted_R	0.496	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.505	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.039
predicted_SO	0.763	-0.007

4. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

5. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=37.0, weight=0.221, BvP AVG=0.135)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

6. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

7. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.20, last 10=0.20, season=0.60

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.20	10	-	32.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2812	0.3514	0.4375	0.2812	0.0312	0.1875	0.1250	0.3125
season	0.60	21	-	69.000	19.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	6.000	15.000	0.2754	0.3289	0.5072	0.2754	0.0580	0.2029	0.0870	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0250
predicted_AB	3.4360
predicted_AVG	0.2700
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3311
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.5710
predicted_SLG	0.4519
predicted_SO	0.8670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1780	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0250	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.4360	3.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2700	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3200	0.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9280	0.8154	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3311	0.3310	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.5190	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5710	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4519	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8670	0.7702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season
Active form weights	last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60%
Model calibration	55% raw model + 45% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642708
playerID	642708
playerName	Amed Rosario
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan Weathers (677960) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 8

All-history rows before 20260518: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	3.000	2.375	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	2.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.625	1.000	1.375	5.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.450	6.100	-0.250	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	6.750	9.000	-1.750	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	10.000	20.000	8.000	36.000	6.000	3.1034	0.9655	0.3448	0.6897	0.2759	1.2414	0.2069
last_10	0.35	8	45.000	15.000	37.000	13.000	54.000	6.000	3.0000	1.1111	0.3333	0.8222	0.2889	1.2000	0.1333
season	0.20	8	45.000	15.000	37.000	13.000	54.000	6.000	3.0000	1.1111	0.3333	0.8222	0.2889	1.2000	0.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8010
predicted_ER	2.2080
predicted_ERA	3.5070
predicted_H	4.5970
predicted_HR	0.9240
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.3550
predicted_WHIP	1.1291

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.8010	2.9280	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2080	2.6139	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5070	3.5070	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.5970	5.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9240	0.9629	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.3550	4.6356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1291	1.1291	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	5
HR	1
BF	27
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	101
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	677960
playerID	677960
playerName	Ryan Weathers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.550	3.000	-0.550	-3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.200	3.000	-0.200	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.930	1.000	0.070	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	1.000	-1.150	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	5.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.6429	1.7143	1.0714	1.2857	0.4286	1.0714	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	12.000	2.000	10.000	2.000	6.0968	1.3548	0.6774	1.1613	0.1935	0.9677	0.1935
season	0.20	20	20.000	11.000	24.000	7.000	23.000	2.000	4.9500	1.5500	0.5500	1.2000	0.3500	1.1500	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.6270
predicted_ERA	5.6464
predicted_H	1.0650
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9950
predicted_WHIP	1.4223

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.1479	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6270	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6464	5.6464	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0650	1.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1970	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9950	0.9979	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4223	1.4223	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.136	0.000	-1.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.5625	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.000	0.9000	1.1000	0.1000	0.7000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
season	0.20	22	19.000	5.000	14.000	12.000	25.000	2.000	2.3684	1.3684	0.2632	0.7368	0.6316	1.3158	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	3.0636
predicted_H	0.8130
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9870
predicted_WHIP	1.2152

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4030	0.1648	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3400	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0636	3.0636	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8130	0.9235	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0340	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9870	0.4037	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2152	1.2152	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.37
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 23

All-history rows before 20260518: 23

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.261	1.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.913	1.000	-0.913	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.822	1.200	-0.622	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.130	3.000	-1.130	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	4.2632	1.1053	0.4737	0.6316	0.4737	1.4210	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	3.0000	1.0833	0.3333	0.7500	0.3333	1.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	23	23.100	6.000	21.000	9.000	26.000	2.000	2.3143	1.2857	0.2571	0.9000	0.3857	1.1143	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_ER	0.4070
predicted_ERA	3.8334
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0410
predicted_WHIP	1.2287

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3740	0.1610	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4070	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8334	3.8334	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7990	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1640	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0410	1.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2287	1.2287	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	2
Pitches	2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260516_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 22

All-history rows before 20260518: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	0.100	-0.468	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	1.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.4500	0.0000
season	0.20	22	18.200	3.000	14.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.4464	0.8571	0.1607	0.7500	0.1071	0.3750	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_ER	0.2620
predicted_ERA	3.3866
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4480
predicted_WHIP	1.2235

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1570	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2620	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3866	3.3866	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6930	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0224	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4480	0.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2235	1.2235	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Camilo Doval (666808) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260518: 20

All-history rows before 20260518: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	Pitching_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_ER	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.715	1.000	-0.715	-1.000
predicted_SO	Pitching_SO	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.0769	0.9231	0.2308	0.9231	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.6667	0.2222	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	20	17.100	10.000	15.000	3.000	17.000	3.000	5.1923	1.0385	0.5769	0.8654	0.1731	0.9808	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_ER	0.2500
predicted_ERA	3.7238
predicted_H	0.5390
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5270
predicted_WHIP	1.1608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1630	0.0651	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2500	0.0999	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7238	3.7238	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5390	0.2154	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0650	0.0260	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5270	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1608	1.1608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Active form weights	last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20%
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	0
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260517_NYY@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666808
playerID	666808
playerName	Camilo Doval
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19